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      Can a Democrat Running the Biden Playbook Win in Deep-Red Kentucky?

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      Gov. Andy Beshear, the popular incumbent, is campaigning for re-election on abortion rights, the economy and infrastructure — but distancing himself from the unpopular president.Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky is conducting one of this year’s most intriguing political experiments: What happens when an incumbent Democrat campaigns on President Biden’s record and agenda, but never mentions the party’s unpopular leader by name?Mr. Beshear is running for re-election in his deep-red state as a generic version of Mr. Biden, promoting himself as having led Kentucky through dark times to emerge with a strong post-Covid economy.Like Mr. Biden, he is counting on voters’ distaste for aggressive Republican opposition to abortion, which is banned in almost all circumstances in Kentucky, as well as those with good will toward his stewardship during crises like natural and climate disasters.Yet he is doing whatever he can to separate himself from Mr. Biden, whose approval ratings remain mired around 40 percent nationally and are much lower in Kentucky.“This race is about Kentucky,” Mr. Beshear said on Monday in Richmond, Ky. “It’s about what’s going on in our houses, not about what’s going on in the White House.”Mr. Beshear is among the most popular governors in the country, and Democrats are cautiously optimistic about his prospects in Tuesday’s elections, even though former President Donald J. Trump won the state by about 26 percentage points in 2020.As in-person early voting begins on Thursday, officials in both parties in Kentucky say that every private poll of the race has shown Mr. Beshear leading his Republican challenger, Daniel Cameron, the attorney general. That could suggest the continuation of a national political environment that has been favorable to Democrats since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson in June 2022 ended the federal right to abortion.Daniel Cameron, the Republican challenger for governor and the state’s attorney general, acknowledges in his TV ads that Mr. Beshear is “a nice guy.”Timothy D. Easley/Associated PressBut Mr. Biden remains toxic in the state: A poll released Tuesday by Morning Consult found that 68 percent of Kentuckians disapproved of him, while 60 percent — including 43 percent of Republicans — approved of Mr. Beshear.Since Mr. Beshear won the governor’s race in 2019, the number of registered Democrats in Kentucky has fallen while the number of Republicans has increased. And local Republicans believe they’ll outperform polling after surveys underestimated support for Mr. Trump in 2020.Kentucky’s voters have a knack for providing a preview of national trends. The state’s last six elections for governor have forecast presidential election results a year later.On the campaign trail in counties that Mr. Trump carried — which is 118 of Kentucky’s 120 — Mr. Beshear tries to extricate the Biden from Bidenomics, the tagline much heralded by the president’s campaign. Mr. Beshear celebrates record-low unemployment rates, a major bridge project paid for by Mr. Biden’s infrastructure law and what he says are the “two best years for economic development in our history.”No new business development is too small. At a Monday morning stop in Richmond, Ky., Mr. Beshear cited the recent opening of a truck stop just outside town. “We even brought a Buc-ee’s to Madison County,” he said, referring to the franchise’s first outpost in the state and a point of local pride.Left unmentioned in Mr. Beshear’s pitch to voters is the Biden administration’s significant role in his résumé. Mr. Biden’s infrastructure law has directed $5.2 billion to at least 220 Kentucky projects, including $1.1 billion for high-speed internet and $1.6 billion for the rebuilding of the Brent Spence Bridge, which connects Cincinnati to its Kentucky suburbs. It’s a long-awaited project that Mr. Beshear mentions in his closing TV ad.Democrats on the Kentucky ballot with Mr. Beshear on Tuesday have all gotten the message about Mr. Biden.Kim Reeder, the Democrat running for state auditor, laughed when asked if she had ever said the words “Joe Biden” out loud, then requested to go off the record when asked what she thought of his performance in office. Sierra Enlow, the party’s candidate for agriculture commissioner — whose Republican opponent is pledging in television ads to “stop Biden and save Kentucky” — said she responded by “talking about what voters need to hear and what this office actually does.”Kim Reeder, left, a Democrat running for state auditor, with a supporter at a brewery in Richmond, Ky. Jon Cherry for The New York TimesAnd Pam Stevenson, the Democratic candidate for attorney general, said she didn’t talk about Mr. Biden “because for the last year, no one’s asked me about him.”Kentucky Republicans acknowledge that Mr. Beshear is popular and leading even in their polling. Mr. Cameron, who is a protégé of Senator Mitch McConnell, acknowledges in his TV ads that Mr. Beshear is “a nice guy.”The most popular topics in TV ads aired by Mr. Cameron and his Republican allies are crime, opposition to Mr. Biden, Mr. Cameron’s endorsement from Mr. Trump, opposition to L.G.B.T.Q. rights, and jobs, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm.Mac Brown, the chairman of the Republican Party of Kentucky, said Mr. Beshear’s popularity was a remnant of the billions directed to the state from the Biden administration. Crime is the foremost concern, said Mr. Brown, whose home in the Louisville suburbs was vandalized and burned last year.“When you sit down and look at it, he’s very good at taking credit for what other people do,” Mr. Brown said. “That’s probably the easiest way to say it.”As with Mr. Biden and other Democrats, the most potent political weapon for Mr. Beshear is abortion rights. With Republican supermajorities in the Kentucky Legislature, there’s little Mr. Beshear can do to change the state’s near-total ban on the procedure. The building in downtown Louisville that housed one of Kentucky’s last abortion clinics is now for sale.Pam Stevenson, the Democrat running for attorney general, said she didn’t talk about Mr. Biden “because for the last year, no one’s asked me about him.”Jon Cherry for The New York TimesMr. Beshear’s campaigning is a reversal of decades of red-state Democratic reticence on abortion politics. Where Democrats have in the past avoided the issue or watered down their support for abortion rights, Mr. Beshear has blasted Mr. Cameron for his anti-abortion stance and attacked Kentucky Republicans for passing the abortion ban. He is airing striking ads that feature a woman who speaks of being raped by her stepfather when she was 12 years old.Mr. Cameron, who has defended the state’s abortion ban in court, now says he would sign legislation to allow some exceptions if elected.“There’s no ads saying, ‘Don’t elect the pro-abortion guy,’” said Trey Grayson, a Republican who served as Kentucky secretary of state in the 2000s.Last November, voters rejected an effort to write an abortion prohibition into the Kentucky Constitution. Now the Beshear campaign has found in its polling that just 12 percent of Kentuckians favor the state’s abortion ban. Mr. Beshear said he was trying to change the political language surrounding abortion away from the old binary between choice and life.“Those terms were from a Roe v. Wade world that doesn’t exist anymore,” he said in Richmond this week. “In the Dobbs world, we have the most draconian, restrictive law in the country. This race is about whether you think that victims of rape and incest should have options, that the couples that have a nonviable pregnancy should have to carry it to term even though that child is going to die.”Steve Beshear, who is Mr. Beshear’s father and a former governor of the state, was more succinct about where the abortion debate stood in Kentucky.“It’s totally changed from a Republican issue to a Democratic issue,” he said.Steve Beshear, Mr. Beshear’s father and a former Kentucky governor, said abortion politics in the state now favored Democrats.Jon Cherry for The New York TimesJust as Mr. Biden’s fate is likely to be determined by his performance in the counties that ring Atlanta, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, Mr. Beshear has concentrated on the suburban areas near Cincinnati, Lexington and Louisville. In 2019, he won Madison County, a Lexington suburb that includes Richmond, before Mr. Trump won it by about 27 points in 2020.Jimmy Cornelison, a Democrat who is the elected coroner of Madison County, said people there appreciated that the state had far fewer deaths from the coronavirus pandemic because Mr. Beshear had put in place aggressive policies to restrict public gatherings and require masks in indoor spaces. But that doesn’t mean such Kentuckians share Mr. Beshear’s party identification.“There were a lot of people elected Democrats in this county that aren’t Democrats now,” Mr. Cornelison said. “I’m the sole survivor.”Voters who came to Mr. Beshear’s campaign rallies this week spoke of his nightly coronavirus updates in 2020, his relentless travel schedule and a general satisfaction about how the state is doing. While Mr. Biden speaks of restoring “the soul of America,” Mr. Beshear has invited the entire state to join him on “Team Kentucky.”“People disagree with Washington, you know, but they like what’s going on in Kentucky,” said Ralph Hoskins, a Democratic retired school superintendent from Oneida, Ky., who drove through the rain to see Mr. Beshear speak under a tent in the parking lot of an abandoned supermarket in London, Ky.Nearby, Jean Marie Durham, a Democrat who is a retired state employee from East Bernstadt, Ky., showed off a poem she had written about Mr. Beshear during the early days of the pandemic.“He cares about our protection from death and despair; He diligently considers our safety and personal care!” she wrote.Ms. Durham also had handy the response Mr. Beshear had sent her. He called her “a very talented writer” and wrote that he had displayed the poem in his office in Frankfort, the capital.“He’s one of us,” Ms. Durham said of Mr. Beshear, “even though his dad was governor.” More

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      DeSantis Leans Into Vaccine Skepticism to Energize Struggling Campaign

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      The Florida governor has so far found little success in getting his criticism of the Trump administration’s Covid-19 policies to stick, but that has not stopped him from trying.Gov. Ron DeSantis had hoped that his response to the coronavirus pandemic, which helped propel him to a resounding re-election in Florida last year, would produce similar results in the Republican presidential primary.But despite leaning into his record on Covid-19, Mr. DeSantis remains adrift in the polls and badly trailing former President Donald J. Trump, whose administration he has castigated for how it handled the pandemic. Mr. DeSantis points to how he guided Florida through the pandemic — reopening schools and businesses early and forbidding local governments and businesses from imposing mask and vaccine mandates — as a model for the nation.While Mr. Trump recently warned against the return of “Covid hysteria,” his administration led the rapid development of the Covid-19 vaccines that many Republicans now question. Studies show the shots prevented millions of deaths and hospitalizations in the United States. But over the summer, Mr. Trump acknowledged to Fox News that the shots were “not a great thing to talk about” in his party.Mr. DeSantis has sought to exploit that anti-vaccine sentiment as a way to pry primary voters away from Mr. Trump, publicly casting doubt on their safety and effectiveness against the coronavirus. Scientific experts have labeled his views — and his administration’s decision to recommend that Floridians under 65 not receive the updated Covid-19 shot — as dangerous and extreme, even as many acknowledge that the school closures that Mr. DeSantis opposed went on for too long in some states.On Wednesday, Mr. DeSantis again tried to rally vaccine-skeptic voters to his side, headlining a “Medical Freedom” town hall at a ski area in Manchester, N.H., alongside Florida’s Surgeon General, Dr. Joseph Ladapo. During the event, which was hosted by Mr. DeSantis’s super PAC, the Florida governor insisted that federal public health agencies had spewed “nonsense” throughout the pandemic and needed a complete overhaul.He claimed that the Covid shots have been rolled out without proper clinical studies and that federal officials had either lied or were flatly wrong about the benefits and risks — a view that has been roundly condemned by a wide array of public health experts, academics and scientists. “We know the federal government muffed this in many different ways and we need a reckoning,” the governor said.Mr. DeSantis has found little success in getting his criticism of the Trump administration’s Covid-19 policies to stick, demonstrating the former president’s remarkable resilience with Republicans in the face of criminal indictments, growing attacks from rival candidates and his own verbal missteps.In interviews with The New York Times across the early nominating states, many voters have said they do not fault Mr. Trump for his response to a new and unknown virus, saying that he did his best in an uncertain situation. Such attitudes are common even among some of Mr. DeSantis’s supporters.“I’m always inclined to cut President Trump some slack on the epidemic because he was listening to people who supposedly knew what they were talking about,” said Richard Merkt, 74, who attended the town hall on Wednesday and said he plans to vote for Mr. DeSantis in the New Hampshire primary. Mr. Merkt is a former New Jersey assemblyman who has run for office in New Hampshire, where he retired. Bob Wolf, an undecided Iowa voter, said he admired Mr. DeSantis’s handling of the pandemic but did not blame Mr. Trump. “When Trump was in charge, I don’t think everyone knew what the facts were,” Mr. Wolf, a 44-year-old firefighter, said in an interview this fall.Still, Mr. DeSantis is clinging to his Covid policies as a pillar of a campaign. In September, he and Dr. Ladapo recommended that Floridians under the age of 65 should not get the updated Covid shot that targets the virus’s more recent variants. That guidance contradicted the advice of the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which had recommended the shot for most Americans six months and older.At the town hall, Dr. Ladapo praised Mr. DeSantis.“To read the data, to reach a conclusion, to know that conclusion is right, and all of these Harvard Ph.D’s and M.D.’s are wrong? That takes courage,” said Dr. Ladapo, who himself holds degrees from Harvard.Florida’s Surgeon General, Dr. Joseph Ladapo, regularly appears with Gov. Ron DeSantis at events in the state, but this week joined him on the campaign trail. Chris O’Meara/Associated PressMore than 1.13 million Americans have died from Covid-19 since the pandemic began, with the fatality rate far higher for the unvaccinated than for the vaccinated. A partisan divide has emerged in the nation’s death rate, which has been greater in Republican-leaning counties. Republicans now tend to be more skeptical than Democrats of vaccines of all types, a post-pandemic development.Florida was an early leader in vaccinating older residents against Covid, but achieved far lower vaccination rates for younger age groups as the governor shifted from a vocal advocate to a skeptic of shots. A New York Times analysis in July found that unlike the nation as a whole, Florida lost more lives to Covid after vaccines became available to all adults, not before.Mr. DeSantis has suggested that he is the only Republican who can capture general election voters who are angry about the government’s response to the pandemic, particularly with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent anti-vaccine activist and conspiracy theorist, in the race as a third-party candidate.“RFK Jr. will be a vessel for anti-lockdown and anti-Fauci voters, if Trump is the nominee,” Mr. DeSantis said last month, in a reference to Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s former top infectious disease expert, whom he has said should be prosecuted. “If I’m the nominee, they all go to me.”When Mr. Kennedy was still running in the Democratic primary against President Biden, Mr. DeSantis even suggested that the longtime liberal might have a place in his presidential administration — a clear sign that he hoped to court supporters of Mr. Kennedy who share his views on vaccines.But so far, Mr. DeSantis’s efforts to break through in the Republican field have failed.Although the Florida governor generally has high favorability ratings among G.O.P. voters, Mr. Trump has maintained his dominant lead in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. One recent poll showed that former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina had caught up to Mr. DeSantis in Iowa — where he has staked his entire campaign. Polling averages put Ms. Haley ahead of him in both New Hampshire and South Carolina.Not only have the governor’s criticisms of Covid vaccines produced few political dividends in the primary, scientific experts characterize them as dangerous public health policy.Dr. Paul A. Offit directs the vaccine education center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and serves on the F.D.A.’s panel of outside vaccine experts that authorized the vaccines. He said tens of millions of Americans under the age of 65 suffer from underlying medical conditions that increase their risk of severe disease or death from Covid.“Does he think that only those over 65 are at risk?” he asked, referring to Mr. DeSantis’s refusal to recommend the shots for younger age groups. “We’ve moved, sadly, from scientific illiteracy to scientific denialism. Science doesn’t matter.”Dr. Scott Rivkees, Florida’s state surgeon general for more than two years under Mr. DeSantis, said the state was now quite isolated in its approach to Covid vaccinations.“I’m not aware of other states that have said that individuals younger than 65 should not get vaccinated against Covid,” said Dr. Rivkees, who left the administration in September 2021 and is now a professor at Brown University’s School of Public Health.Mr. DeSantis’s team dismisses such criticism as more grousing from a “tyrannical medical establishment” that led the nation astray during the pandemic.“His actions have exposed the ‘experts’ for the political actors that the country now knows them to be — and that’s why they continue to attack him with failed science and fake narratives,” Bryan Griffin, press secretary for the DeSantis campaign, said in a statement. He said that Mr. DeSantis had “prioritized the truth” as governor and would “do the same for our nation as president.”Sarafina Chitika, a spokeswoman for the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement: “Ron DeSantis’s attempt to resurrect his old and tired anti-vaccine tantrum today is a reminder to voters that he played political games with Florida’s Covid response at every turn in a cheap effort to score political points with the extreme MAGA movement.” Public health authorities give Mr. DeSantis credit for insisting that Florida schools open their doors to students in the fall of 2020. Many experts now agree that too many school districts offered only remote learning for far too long. But they have heaped criticism on him for casting doubt on Covid shots.Mr. DeSantis claimed Wednesday, as he has previously, that federal authorities misled people into believing that the vaccines prevented infection. In fact, shots were authorized based on evidence that they reduced risks of severe disease and death, not infection.The governor also claimed that Dr. Ladapo had properly identified risks of the shots for young men. But the heads of the F.D.A. and the C.D.C. publicly warned Dr. Ladapo that his statements were misleading, saying such misinformation “puts people at risk of death or serious illness.”Mr. DeSantis also played up a state grand jury investigation he instigated nearly a year ago into what he claimed was possible criminal misconduct by Covid vaccine manufacturers. Critics labeled it a political stunt, and it has so far come to naught.But at the town hall Mr. DeSantis suggested that the issue would continue to come up on the campaign trail, saying: “There may be a report or something like that pretty soon.” More

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      The Run-Up: Clallam County Has Voted for Every Presidential Winner Since 1980

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      Listen and follow ‘The Run-Up’Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicClallam County in Washington State is far from Washington, D.C. — almost as far as you can go without leaving the continental United States.It’s right on the border with Canada. It’s home to about 78,000 people and Olympic National Park. It’s home to Forks, perhaps best known as the setting of Stephenie Meyer’s “Twilight” series.It’s also the home of a particular piece of political trivia.“I don’t think as a community we think in terms of red or blue. That’s not how we define who we are.”Bryon Monohan, a former mayor of Forks, Wash. “It feels like just kicking the can down the road and just, like, staving off a bunch of stuff that I don’t really want to have happen.”Kate Bradshaw, with her husband, John Stanek, on a vote for President Biden in 2024“With the abortion issues coming up, I’m more hopeful. There will be more women voting Democratic.”Rosa Cary, a substitute teacher, who said she used to be more politically active online but has pulled back from the “negativity.”Of more than 3,000 counties in the United States, it is the only one that has voted for the winner of the presidential race every year since 1980. It earned this distinction in 2020.That year’s contest — the race between President Biden and former president Donald J. Trump — broke the streaks of other longstanding bellwether counties. But Clallam, which went for Mr. Trump in 2016 by more than 1,100 votes, chose Mr. Biden.The country is a year out from the 2024 presidential election, and despite a robust Republican primary field, the race is looking like it could easily be a 2020 rematch. So at “The Run-Up,” we thought Clallam County could give us something resembling a prediction.Astead W. Herndon, left, host of “The Run-Up,” and Caitlin O’Keefe, a producer, spent more than 11 hours in the Fairmount Diner in Port Angeles, Wash., in conversation with 18 voters.We spent a day in the Fairmount Diner in Port Angeles, Wash., talking to a wide range of people: committed Biden voters, committed Trump voters, people who were hoping for anyone but Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump.From a lot of the Democratic voters we talked to, we heard the sorts of concerns that have been reflected in national polls. People felt Mr. Biden was too old to be the nominee again. And they were worried the party was out of touch with the concerns of rural voters.Downtown Port Angeles. Some voters wondered what effect the resumption of student loan payments might have on the local economy.The climate and natural beauty in Clallam County has made it an attractive destination for retirees, which residents say contributes to the roughly even partisan split in the county.It wasn’t all gloom, though. Voters like John Stanek and Kate Bradshaw, a married couple who have been in Clallam for more than a decade, expressed satisfaction with the Biden administration — and cautious optimism for 2024.“I guess I’m in the 30 percent approval rating,” Mr. Stanek said. “I think he’s done a pretty good job.”“I feel like a lot of the time the older generation just sees things completely different from the way that I do.”Kaya, left, and Sierra Boeckermann, sisters and servers at Fairmount Diner“Under Trump, I think people felt that they could spend money on things that they needed to. I work on a lot of 2016 cars.”Rick Parr, an auto mechanic in Port AngelesRosa Cary, a substitute teacher, said she had been in the county for just over a year. A lifelong Democrat, she expressed measured optimism about 2024.“I don’t believe it’ll be a landslide,” she said. “I don’t believe that Biden will win by a larger margin.”But given that Mr. Biden won once without “any trial or indictments” taking place against his opponent, Ms. Cary said, she thinks he has a better chance now.The Fairmount Diner did live up to the promise we had been given by locals: The patrons were politically mixed. Alongside those cautiously upbeat Democrats were Trump supporters, including several who had moved with the county and voted for Mr. Trump after voting for former President Barack Obama twice.The Fairmount Diner where the patrons were politically mixed.They said the issues that mattered most to them were a strong economy and stopping illegal immigration — and indicated that they had also embraced the baseless claim that the 2020 election was rigged, which changed how they were looking ahead to 2024.“I didn’t accept them in the first place,” Rick Parr, a Trump supporter and auto mechanic from Port Angeles, said of the 2020 results. “How can a man that’s sat in his basement win an election?”“Dread. That’s the best we have? An individual who is getting up in years followed by an individual who is under indictment?”Matthew Roberson, a Never Trump Republican, on his outlook for 2024“I am an optimist. I am one who has great confidence in our society, our ability to stabilize, our ability to make adjustments.”W. Ron Allen, chairman and chief executive of the Jamestown S’Klallam Tribe “In my life, at times, I’ve been hesitant to admit I’m wrong. Now I do it all the time.”Jim Bourget, discussing his 2016 vote for Donald Trump. He voted for President Biden in 2020.For Republicans who had hoped their party would move on from Mr. Trump in 2024, a feeling of being politically homeless combined with worry about the outcome of other races.“We’re trying to elect a Republican governor this year for the first time since 1985,” said Matthew Roberson, who is involved with the party locally. “We’ve got two decent candidates running. But, you know, if Donald Trump is on the ballot, that’s going to be more of a challenge.”A map in the Forks, Wash., visitors’ center shows the many destinations people traveled from to get to the Olympic Peninsula — and to “Twilight” territory.Like all of the best diners, the Fairmount attracts a loyal clientele. “All the same people have been coming here since they were little kids,” said Sierra Boeckermann, a waitress.With Clallam County’s perfect record of picking presidents since 1980, will it be right again in 2024?Everyone we asked seemed to think that Clallam would back Mr. Biden in his re-election bid — and that he would win. They weren’t all happy to be making this prediction, but if Mr. Biden wins, it will keep the streak alive.Credits“The Run-Up” is hosted by More

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      Nikki Haley and Trump Meet Separately With Miriam Adelson, G.O.P. Megadonor

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      As Nikki Haley has jumped in presidential polling, her campaign has stepped up its outreach efforts.Nikki Haley, the former United Nations ambassador who has been climbing in Republican presidential polls, met with the casino mogul and megadonor Miriam Adelson over the weekend in Las Vegas, two people familiar with the meeting said.Ms. Haley, a former South Carolina governor, is gaining momentum in the Republican primary, with some polls putting her behind only former President Donald J. Trump after she edged out Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida for second place, albeit a distant one.Ms. Adelson had dinner with Mr. Trump on Saturday night, a nearly three-hour meal at her home, according to a person familiar with the event. The two have history dating back years: Her late husband, Sheldon Adelson, was the largest donor to Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign, and Mr. Trump awarded Ms. Adelson a Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2018.Reuters previously reported Ms. Haley’s meeting with Ms. Adelson, and The Messenger reported Mr. Trump’s dinner. Both took place during the annual gathering of the Republican Jewish Coalition at the Venetian in Las Vegas, a sprawling casino, hotel and event complex that was once the Adelsons’ marquee property.Ms. Adelson has stayed out of the primary battle so far, and has not contributed to federal campaigns in the 2024 cycle, records show. But she and her husband, who died in 2021, have a record of contributing to committees tied to both Mr. Trump and Ms. Haley.In 2020, the Adelsons together gave $90 million to a super PAC that backed Mr. Trump, along with $585,000 each to Mr. Trump’s joint fund-raising committee. In 2022, Ms. Adelson gave $25 million to Republican congressional and Senate committees, records show.In 2019, the Adelsons each gave $250,000 to a social welfare nonprofit Ms. Haley formed shortly after leaving the Trump administration, according to a report in Politico that cited tax documents. In 2022, Ms. Adelson gave $5,000 to a political action committee Ms. Haley had formed.Ms. Haley and Ms. Adelson also had a private meeting at the R.J.C. gathering in 2021, Politico reported at the time.They are not the only candidates who have met with Ms. Adelson this cycle. In April, Ms. Adelson was seated next to Mr. DeSantis at a dinner in Israel. Mr. DeSantis had not yet officially joined the race. Bryan Griffin, the press secretary for Mr. DeSantis’s campaign, said Ms. Adelson and Mr. DeSantis had been “friends for a long time.” He added, “We respect her continued commitment to stay neutral during the primary and are grateful for all she does for the United States, Israel and the Jewish community.”Ms. Haley has surged into second place in polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina and has been closing the gap on Mr. DeSantis in Iowa. A Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll released this week showed that they were tied, far behind Mr. Trump among likely Republican caucusgoers.The Haley campaign has ramped up its outreach to donors and supporters in recent weeks, and officials and volunteers have been working to expand its grass-roots groups for women, veterans and young people. With the momentum has come more scrutiny from Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump and their allies. Even Senator Tim Scott, from her home state, criticized her record as governor during the last presidential debate, a heated exchange that led to one of Ms. Haley’s most memorable lines of the night: “Bring it, Tim.”At the South Carolina State House on Monday, where she officially filed to appear on her home state’s 2024 presidential primary ballot, Ms. Haley kept her message focused on her successes in the state and path to victory — and mostly refrained from attacking her rivals, though she warned that Mr. Scott’s critiques were “a mistake.”“When I’m attacked, I kick back,” she said.Asked if she would consider former Vice President Mike Pence as a running mate, she said she was solely focused on winning in the early states.“It is slow and steady wins the race,” she said. “You win it based on relationships. You win it based on touching every hand, answering every question and earning the trust of the American people.” More

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      Vivek Ramaswamy and Ro Khanna Debate in New Hampshire

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      The meeting between Vivek Ramaswamy, a presidential candidate, and Representative Ro Khanna of California, was largely a showcase for Mr. Ramaswamy to try to rescue a flagging campaign.Vivek Ramaswamy, a Republican presidential candidate, and Ro Khanna, a Democratic member of the House, squared off on Wednesday in New Hampshire in what was billed as a civil discussion between two Indian Americans over the future of the United States.But over the course of an hour at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., Mr. Ramaswamy repeatedly slipped into his stump speech on the “black hole” in America’s collective heart and his belief that the nation was not, as he once thought, the declining Roman Empire, while Mr. Khanna tried to articulate his economic ideas and talk up the record of President Biden against his opponent’s blizzard of words.“It is, I think, regrettable to be carrying the water of Joe Biden when the fact is that everyday Americans know they’re suffering at the hands of policies that came from this administration,” Mr. Ramaswamy snapped back.The appearance of Mr. Khanna, a California Democrat, on a stage in New Hampshire — the second time this year for him — was a testament to the frustrations that he has said he feels about how Mr. Biden and other Democrats have ceded ground to Republicans on putting forth an economic vision. The meeting was initially to be a conversation on race and identity at the University of Chicago, but when Mr. Ramaswamy backed out, Mr. Khanna challenged him on social media — and chased him to the first Republican primary state.On Nov. 30, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, who has tried to extend the White House’s message to audiences he does not believe it’s reaching, will debate Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida on Fox News.In the end, the Saint Anselm meeting was largely a showcase for Mr. Ramaswamy to try to rescue a flagging campaign, which has slipped to fourth place in polling averages in the state, behind Mr. DeSantis, Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who has surged into second. All of them are well behind the front-runner, Donald J. Trump.Mr. Ramaswamy demonstrated that his dogged “America First” isolationism has not been jarred by the bloody conflict between Israel and Hamas. At one point, he declared, “I could care less about leading in the Middle East,” saying of Israel, “Let’s get out and let our true ally defend itself.”To that, Mr. Khanna asked: “Why do you have such an impoverished vision of America that the only thing America is going to have is a provincial sense of its own interest?”Mr. Ramaswamy also showed his propensity to not allow the facts to get in the way of his views. When Mr. Khanna boasted of the 13 million jobs that have been created under Mr. Biden, his opponent cautioned that the government was “the sector with by far the greatest growth in jobs.”While it is true that in recent months the government sector has shown signs of recovery, government employment, as of last month, remained below its prepandemic level by 9,000 jobs, while the private sector has now recovered all the jobs lost in the pandemic and then some.Mr. Khanna has been outspoken in challenging his party and his president to get more aggressive in sharing a vision for more inclusive economic growth. He tried again Wednesday, talking up government investment to rebuild manufacturing: “For the Republicans, and I see some of this in what you’ve adopted, they see any problem, and they say let’s cut taxes, let’s deregulate,” Mr. Khanna said. “How is that putting a steel plant up in Johnstown, Pennsylvania?”But he largely missed the opportunity to highlight Mr. Biden’s biggest legislative achievements in industrial policy, which got only glancing references: a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, a $280 billion measure to rekindle a domestic semiconductor industry and the Inflation Reduction Act, with its spending to combat climate change.Meantime, Mr. Ramaswamy’s well-worn talking points dismissing the threat of climate change, calling for eliminating three quarters of the federal government, and cutting education spending largely went unchallenged. More

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      Trump critica la edad de Biden. Sus deslices podrían perjudicarlo

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      El expresidente ha experimentado una serie de confusiones que van más allá de su naturaleza discursiva habitual, y sus rivales republicanos han comenzado a señalarlas como signos de declive en su desempeño.Una de las nuevas rutinas cómicas de Donald Trump en sus mítines consiste en imitar al actual presidente de una forma exageradamente caricaturesca, burlándose de la edad de Joe Biden.Con los párpados caídos y la boca abierta, Trump tartamudea y balbucea. Entrecierra los ojos. Agita sus brazos. Arrastra los pies y deambula por el escenario. La multitud explota en risas y aplausos mientras Trump finge confusión, volteando y señalando a seguidores invisibles, como si no se diera cuenta de que les está dando la espalda.Sin embargo, el expresidente también ha cometido deslices en sus recientes eventos de campaña. Trump ha experimentado una serie de confusiones y desarticulaciones generales que van más allá de su naturaleza discursiva habitual, y sus rivales republicanos han comenzado a señalarlas como signos de declive en su desempeño.El domingo, en Sioux City, Iowa, Trump agradeció erróneamente a los seguidores de Sioux Falls, una ciudad de Dakota del Sur ubicada a unos 120 kilómetros de allí, y solo corrigió cuando lo llamaron a un lado del escenario y le informaron del error.La situación fue notablemente similar a una escena ficticia que Trump había representado a principios de este mes, en la que imitó a Biden confundiendo Iowa con Idaho y requiriendo de un asistente para aclarar el error.En las últimas semanas, Trump también les ha dicho a sus seguidores que no voten y afirmó haber derrotado al presidente Barack Obama en unas elecciones. Ha elogiado el intelecto colectivo de un grupo militante respaldado por Irán que históricamente ha sidoenemigo tanto de Israel como de Estados Unidos, y en repetidas ocasiones ha pronunciado mal el nombre del grupo armado que gobierna la Franja de Gaza.“Este es un Donald Trump distinto al de 2015 y 2016: perdió el control de su bola rápida”, afirmó el gobernador de Florida, Ron DeSantis, a los periodistas la semana pasada mientras hacía campaña en Nuevo Hampshire.“En 2016, era espontáneo, arrasaba por todo el país”, agregó DeSantis. “Ahora es simplemente un tipo diferente. Y es algo triste de ver”.No se sabe con certeza si los recientes deslices de Trump están relacionados con su edad. Durante mucho tiempo se ha valido de un estilo poco ortodoxo al hablar que le ha servido como una de sus principales ventajas políticas porque lo ha establecido, contra todo pronóstico, como uno de los comunicadores más eficaces de la política estadounidense.Pero, a medida que se intensifica la contienda por la Casa Blanca en 2024, los errores verbales cada vez más frecuentes de Trump amenazan con socavar una de las vías de ataque más potentes de los republicanos, y el objetivo central de su pantomima en el escenario: el argumento de que Biden es demasiado viejo para ser presidente.Biden, abuelo de siete, tiene 80 años. Trump, que tiene 10 nietos, tiene 77.Aunque solo unos pocos años separan a los dos hombres de edad avanzada, los votantes perciben su vigor de manera diferente. Encuestas recientes han revelado que aproximadamente dos de cada tres votantes afirman que Biden es demasiado mayor como para cumplir otro periodo de cuatro años, mientras que solo alrededor de la mitad dice lo mismo sobre Trump.Si esa brecha comienza a reducirse, es Trump quien tiene mucho más que perder en un enfrentamiento electoral presidencial.Trump y el presidente Biden son los favoritos para la nominación de cada partido, estableciendo la probabilidad de una revancha de las elecciones de 2020Michelle Gustafson para The New York TimesSegún un hallazgo no reportado previamente de una encuesta de agosto realizada por The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, el 43 por ciento de los votantes estadounidenses dijeron que ambos hombres eran “demasiado mayores para cumplir de manera eficiente otro mandato de cuatro años como presidente”. Entre esos votantes, el 61 por ciento afirmó que planeaba votar por Biden, en comparación con el 13 por ciento que dijo lo mismo sobre Trump.La semana pasada, un sondeo del Franklin & Marshall College entre votantes registrados de Pensilvania, uno de estados más disputados de cara a 2024, arrojó resultados similares.Según la encuesta, el 43 por ciento de los habitantes de Pensilvania dijo que ambos hombres eran “demasiado viejos para ejercer otro mandato”. Un análisis de esos datos para The New York Times mostró que Biden aventajaba a Trump entre esos votantes por 66 por ciento a 11 por ciento. Entre todos los votantes del estado, los dos estaban en un empate estadístico.Berwood Yost, el director de la encuesta de Franklin & Marshall, dijo que la amplia ventaja de Biden entre los votantes que estaban preocupados por la edad de ambos candidatos podría explicarse en parte por el hecho de que los demócratas son mucho más propensos que los republicanos a identificar la edad como un problema para el líder de su partido.“Si a Trump comienzan a relacionarlo con el tema de la edad, como sucede con Biden, realmente puede verse perjudicado”, dijo Yost.Steven Cheung, portavoz de la campaña de Trump, señaló que el expresidente mantenía una ventaja dominante en las encuestas sobre las primarias republicanas y que, en las elecciones generales, varias encuestas recientes habían mostrado que tenía una ligera ventaja sobre Biden.“Ninguna de estas falsas narrativas ha cambiado la dinámica de la contienda: el expresidente Trump sigue dominando, porque la gente sabe que es el candidato más fuerte”, señaló Cheung. “El contraste es que Biden se cae sobre el escenario, balbucea durante un discurso, no sabe por dónde caminar y tropieza con los escalones del Air Force One. Eso no se puede corregir y quedará grabado en la mente de los votantes”.Durante mucho tiempo, las habilidades retóricas de Trump se han basado en una mezcla de fuerza bruta y un instinto aparentemente natural para la imprecisión. Esa seductora combinación, perfeccionada tras toda una vida de negociaciones inmobiliarias, escándalos en los tabloides neoyorquinos y el estrellato de un programa de telerrealidad en horario de máxima audiencia, a menudo hace que los votantes oigan lo que quieren oír.El estilo de hablar de Trump ha hecho que sus partidarios, o los votantes que están dispuestos a apoyarlo, a menudo oigan lo que quieren oír.Jordan Gale para The New York TimesLos partidarios de Trump salen de sus discursos llenos de energía. Los votantes indecisos que están abiertos a su mensaje pueden encontrar lo que buscan en su discurso. Los opositores se enfurecen, y cuando le acusan furiosamente de algo que han oído pero que no ha dicho exactamente, Trump convierte la crítica en un dato de que está siendo perseguido, y todo el ciclo vuelve a empezar.Pero los últimos pasos en falso de Trump no pueden clasificarse como vaguedades calculadas.Durante un discurso del 15 de septiembre en Washington, poco después de declarar a Biden como alguien “con problemas cognitivos, incapaz de liderar”, el expresidente advirtió que Estados Unidos estaba al borde de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, la cual terminó en 1945.En el mismo discurso, Trump se jactó de que las encuestas presidenciales lo posicionan por delante de Obama quien, de hecho, no se está postulando para un tercer periodo porque, entre otras cosas, sería ilegal. Volvió a referirse erróneamente a Obama durante una anécdota sobre su victoria en la contienda presidencial de 2016.“Lo hicimos con Obama”, declaró Trump. “Ganamos una elección que todo el mundo decía que no se podía ganar, vencimos a…” Hizo una pausa mientras parecía darse cuenta de su error. “Hillary Clinton”.En un mitin en Florida, el 11 de octubre, días después de un brutal ataque terrorista que dejó sin vida a cientos de israelíes, Trump criticó al país por no estar preparado y arremetió contra su primer ministro, Benjamín Netanyahu. Trump parece haberse enojado con Netanyahu, quien solía ser un aliado cercano, después de que el líder israelí felicitó a Biden por ganar las elecciones de 2020.En el mismo discurso, Trump recurrió una cronología errada de los acontecimientos en Medio Oriente para criticar el manejo de Biden de los asuntos exteriores y, en el proceso, atrajo titulares por elogiar a Hizbulá, el grupo militante respaldado por Irán.La semana pasada, en un mitin celebrado en New Hampshire, Trump elogió a Viktor Orban, el primer ministro húngaro, pero se refirió a él como “el líder de Turquía”, un país localizado a cientos de kilómetros de distancia. Con rapidez, corrigió su error.En otro momento del mismo discurso, Trump lució confundido al decirles a sus partidarios: “Ustedes no tienen que votar, no se preocupen por la votación”. Luego agregó: “Tenemos un montón de votos”.Cheung, el portavoz de la campaña de Trump, dijo que el expresidente “claramente estaba hablando de la integridad electoral y asegurarse de que solo se cuenten los votos legales”.Con Trump, el Partido Republicano ha sufrido una serie de derrotas electorales desde 2016.Doug Mills/The New York TimesEn un discurso del sábado, Trump sonó como si estuviera hablando de hummus cuando pronunció mal “Hamás”, el nombre del grupo islamista que gobierna la Franja de Gaza y que el 7 de octubre ejecutó uno de los mayores ataques contra Israel en décadas.La pronunciación del expresidente llamó la atención del comando de campaña de Biden, que publicó el video en las redes sociales y señaló que Trump sonaba “confundido”.Pero incluso sus rivales republicanos han percibido una oportunidad en el tema de la edad contra Trump, quien ha mantenido un control inquebrantable sobre el partido a pesar de un historial político que en años anteriores habría obligado a los conservadores a considerar otro abanderado. Trump perdió el control del Congreso siendo presidente; fue expulsado a votos de la Casa Blanca; no logró contribuir a generar una “ola roja” de victorias en las elecciones de medio mandato del año pasado y, este año, recibió 91 cargos por delitos graves en cuatro casos penales.Este año, Nikki Haley, de 51 años y exgobernadora de Carolina del Sur, inició su candidatura presidencial pidiendo que los candidatos mayores de 75 años pasaran pruebas de competencia mental, una iniciativa que ha renovado en las últimas semanas.El sábado, Haley atacó a Trump por sus comentarios sobre Netanyahu y Hizbulá, al dar a entender en un discurso ante donantes judíos en Las Vegas que el expresidente no tenía las facultades necesarias para regresar a la Casa Blanca.“Déjenme recordarles una cosa”, añadió con una pequeña sonrisa. “Con todo respeto, yo no me confundo”.Jazmine Ulloa More

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      Election Day Guide: Governor Races, Abortion Access and More

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      Two governorships are at stake in the South, while Ohio voters will decide whether to enshrine the right to an abortion in the state constitution.Election Day is nearly here, and while off-year political races receive a fraction of the attention compared with presidential elections, some of Tuesday’s contests will be intensely watched.At stake are two southern governorships, control of the Virginia General Assembly and abortion access in Ohio. National Democrats and Republicans, seeking to build momentum moving toward next November, will be eyeing those results for signals about 2024.Here are the major contests voters will decide on Tuesday and a key ballot question:Governor of KentuckyGov. Andy Beshear, left, a Democrat, is facing Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s Republican attorney general, in his campaign for re-election as governor.Pool photo by Kentucky Educational TelevisionGov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, is seeking to again defy convention in deep-red Kentucky, a state carried handily by Donald J. Trump in 2020.He is facing Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s attorney general, who was propelled to victory by an early endorsement from Mr. Trump in a competitive Republican primary in May.In 2019, Mr. Cameron became the first Black person to be elected as Kentucky’s attorney general, an office previously held by Mr. Beshear. He drew attention in 2020 when he announced that a grand jury did not indict two Louisville officers who shot Breonna Taylor.In the 2019 governor’s race, Mr. Beshear ousted Matt Bevin, a Trump-backed Republican, by fewer than 6,000 votes. This year, he enters the race with a strong job approval rating. He is seeking to replicate a political feat of his father, Steve Beshear, who was also Kentucky governor and was elected to two terms.Governor of Mississippi Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner who is related to Elvis Presley, wants to be the state’s first Democratic governor in two decades.Emily Kask for The New York TimesGov. Tate Reeves, a Republican in his first term, has some of the lowest job approval numbers of the nation’s governors.Rogelio V. Solis/Associated PressIt has been two decades since Mississippi had a Democrat as governor. Gov. Tate Reeves, a Republican in his first term, is seeking to avoid becoming the one who ends that streak.But his job approval numbers are among the lowest of the nation’s governors, which has emboldened his Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner with a famous last name: His second cousin, once removed, was Elvis Presley.Mr. Presley has attacked Mr. Reeves over a welfare scandal exposed last year by Mississippi Today, which found that millions in federal funds were misspent. Mr. Reeves, who was the lieutenant governor during the years the scandal unfolded, has denied any wrongdoing, but the issue has been a focal point of the contest.Abortion access in OhioAs states continue to reckon with the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court last year, Ohio has become the latest front in the fight over access to abortion.Reproductive rights advocates succeeded in placing a proposed amendment on the November ballot that would enshrine the right to abortion access into the state constitution. Its supporters have sought to fill the void that was created by the Roe decision.Anti-abortion groups have mounted a sweeping campaign to stop the measure. One effort, a proposal to raise the threshold required for passing a constitutional amendment, was rejected by voters this summer.Virginia legislatureIn just two states won by President Biden in 2020, Republicans have a power monopoly — and in Virginia, they are aiming to secure a third. The others are Georgia and New Hampshire.Democrats narrowly control the Virginia Senate, where all 40 seats are up for grabs in the election. Republicans hold a slim majority in the House of Delegates, which is also being contested.The outcome of the election is being viewed as a potential reflection of the clout of Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican with national ambitions.Philadelphia mayorAn open-seat race for mayor in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s foremost Democratic bastion, is down to two former City Council members: Cherelle Parker, a Democrat, and David Oh, a Republican.The advantage for Ms. Parker appears to be an overwhelming one in the city, which has not elected a Republican as mayor since 1947.It has also been two decades since Philadelphia, the nation’s sixth most populous city, had a somewhat competitive mayoral race. More

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      Christian Nationalism ‘Is No Longer Operating Beneath the Surface’

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      Mike Johnson is the first person to become speaker of the House who can be fairly described as a Christian nationalist, a major development in American history in and of itself. Equally important, however, his ascension reflects the strength of white evangelical voters’ influence in the House Republican caucus, voters who are determined to use the power of government to roll back the civil rights, women’s rights and sexual revolutions.“Johnson is a clear rebuttal to the overall liberal societal drift that’s happening in the United States,” Ryan Burge, a political scientist at Eastern Illinois University, wrote by email in response to my query. “His views are far out of step with the average American and even with a significant number of Republicans.”“Yet, he was chosen as speaker,” continued Burge, who is also a pastor in the American Baptist Church. “If anything, it shows us that white evangelicals still have a very strong hold on the modern Republican Party. They are losing overall market share in the larger culture, but they are certainly taking on an outsized role in Republican politics.”Burge provided The Times with data on the changing religious composition of the Republican electorate. In the 1970s, mainline Protestants dominated at 46 percent, compared with evangelical Protestants at 24 percent and Catholics at 19 percent. By the decade of the 2010s, evangelical Protestants were a commanding 38 percent of Republicans, mainline Protestants had fallen to 17 percent, and Catholics had grown to 25 percent.Robert Jones, the president and founder of the Public Religion Research Institute, described Johnson in an email as “the embodiment of white Christian nationalism in a tailored suit.”What is Christian nationalism? Christianity Today described it as the “belief that the American nation is defined by Christianity, and that the government should take active steps to keep it that way. Popularly, Christian nationalists assert that America is and must remain a ‘Christian nation’ — not merely as an observation about American history, but as a prescriptive program for what America must continue to be in the future.”Johnson’s election as speaker, Jones went on to say, “is one more confirmation that the Republican Party — a party that is 68 percent white and Christian in a country that is 42 percent white and Christian — has embraced its role as the party of white Christian nationalism.”Jones argued that “while Johnson is more polished than other right-wing leaders of the G.O.P. who support this worldview, his record and previous public statements indicate that he’s a near textbook example of white Christian nationalism — the belief that God intended America to be a new promised land for European Christians.”In a long and data-filled analysis posted on Substack on Oct. 29, “Hiding in Plain Sight: The Sources of MAGA Madness,” Michael Podhorzer, a former political director of the A.F.L.-C.I.O., argued that the election of Johnson reflects the success of the Christian right in a long-term struggle to wrest control from traditional Republican elites, in battles fought out in Republican primary elections.Over the past two decades, Podhorzer wrote, “the political might of organized right-wing Christianity was successfully redeployed against establishment Republicans.”The decimation of moderate and centrist members of the House was most striking over the election cycles from 2010 to the present, according to Podhorzer: “From 2010 through 2022, a historically high number of House Republicans were defeated in primaries, with the vast majority of successful challenges happening in the most evangelical districts.”The result: When House districts are ranked by the percentage of voters who are white evangelicals, the top quintile is represented by 81 Republicans and 6 Democrats and the second quintile by 68 Republicans and 19 Democrats. The bottom three quintiles are represented by 188 Democrats and 73 Republicans.Not only do Republicans overwhelmingly represent the districts with the most white evangelicals, but those Republicans are deeply entrenched, with little or no danger of losing the general election to a Democrat:“Republicans represent 98 percent of the most evangelical safe districts and 82 percent of the remaining above-median evangelical safe districts,” Podhorzer wrote. “These two categories elected just shy of three-quarters of the Republican Caucus in safe districts.”The MAGA movement, in Podhorzer’s view, was unleashed with the Tea Party movement in 2010, well before Donald Trump emerged as a dominant political figure, and the elevation of Johnson marks the most recent high point in the movement’s acquisition of power: “Mike Johnson becoming speaker is better understood in terms of the ongoing white Christian nationalist takeover of the American government through MAGA,” he writes.White Christian nationalists, Podhorzer contended, “were once reliable votes and loyal foot soldiers for almost any Republican candidate since the 1970s,” but they “rebelled when John McCain and other establishment Republicans treated Obama’s win as legitimate.”From 2010 forward, Podhorzer wrote, “the political muscle provided by white Christian nationalism’s extensive church-based infrastructure in congressional districts, and its national reach through Christian broadcasting and national organizations, has turned MAGA into a ruthlessly successful RINO-hunting machine.”It should not be surprising, Podhorzer said, “to see an election-denying evangelical Christian who favors a national abortion ban, Bible courses in public schools, and ‘covenant marriage,’ and who believes that L.G.B.T.Q. people are living an ‘inherently unnatural’ and ‘dangerous lifestyle’ elevated to the speakership.”There is a strong correlation between election from a district with a high share of white evangelical voters, Podhorzer found, and election denial: “More than three-quarters of those representing the most evangelical districts are election deniers, compared to just half of those in the remaining districts. Fully three-quarters of the deniers in the caucus hail from evangelical districts.”The most recent P.R.R.I. American Values Survey, conducted in late August, “Threats to American Democracy Ahead of an Unprecedented Presidential Election,” further illuminated the priorities of the contemporary Republican electorate.The survey asked respondents whether they would “prefer a presidential candidate who can best manage the economy” or a candidate who will “protect and preserve American culture and the American way of life.”Democrats chose a candidate who can manage the economy 57 to 40, a view shared by independents by a smaller margin, 53 to 45. Republican voters, in contrast, preferred a candidate who will preserve American culture, by 58 to 40 percent.A different P.R.R.I. survey, released on Feb. 8, “A Christian Nation? Understanding the Threat of Christian Nationalism to American Democracy and Culture,” measured support for Christian nationalism based on responses to five statements:The U.S. government should declare America a Christian nation.U.S. laws should be based on Christian values.If the U.S. moves away from our Christian foundations, we will not have a country anymore.Being Christian is an important part of being truly American.God has called Christians to exercise dominion over all areas of American society.On the basis of the responses, P.R.R.I. created four categories:Christian nationalism adherents: the 10 percent of Americans who overwhelmingly either agree or completely agree with the five statements above.Christian nationalism sympathizers: the 19 percent of Americans who agree with these statements but are less likely to say they “completely agree.”Christian nationalism skeptics: the 39 percent of Americans who disagree with the statements but are less likely to completely disagree.Christian nationalism rejecters: the 29 percent of Americans who completely disagree with all five statements in the scale.Among Democrats, the survey found that 15 percent were either adherents (5 percent) or sympathizers (10 percent). Among independents, 23 percent were adherents (6 percent) or sympathizers (17 percent).Among Republican voters, 54 percent were either adherents (21 percent) or sympathizers (33 percent).In a series of questions on racial issues and immigration, Christian nationalist adherents were well to the right of Americans as a whole.Asked whether “discrimination against white Americans has become as big a problem as discrimination against Black Americans and other minorities,” 85 percent of Christian nationalist adherents agreed, compared with 41 percent of all those surveyed.Asked whether they agree or disagree with the statement “immigrants are invading our country and replacing our cultural and ethnic background,” 81 percent of Christian nationalist adherents agreed.Philip Gorski, a sociologist at Yale who has written extensively about Christian nationalism, replied by email to my inquiry about Johnson’s election:He says out loud what most others just feel: that America was founded as a Christian nation, that the founders were “evangelical” Christians, that the founding documents were based on “biblical principles,” that God has entrusted America with a divine mission, that he has blessed America with unique power and prosperity and that those blessings will be withdrawn if America strays off the straight and narrow path of Christian morality. And that it is every good Christian’s duty to make America Christian again.Christian nationalism, in Gorski’s view,is no longer operating beneath the surface or in the background. It’s now front and center at commanding heights of power. It will now be much harder for right-wing Christian activists to claim that Christian nationalism is a fringe phenomenon or a left-wing smear job. In 2021, it was still hard to find an avowed Christian nationalist in the top ranks of the G.O.P. Not anymore.Gorski wrote that Johnsonlikes to say that the United States is a “republic” and not a “democracy.” By this, he means that the majority does not and should not get its way. That would be democracy. A republic means rule by the virtuous, not the majority. And the virtuous are of course conservative Christians like him.Eric Schickler, a political scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, stressed in an email his view that Johnson’s election as speaker demonstrated once again the weakness of the centrist wing of the House Republican caucus, writing that the elevation of the Louisiana Republicanreinforces the message that the most conservative voices in the Republican Party have decisive influence on the party in the House of Representatives. Less conservative members from swing districts have repeatedly made noises, suggesting that they were willing to wield power to ensure that leaders would reflect their needs — but once again, when push came to shove, they gave in despite having the numbers to hold the balance of power in the House.In addition, the “entire episode” — from the ousting of Kevin McCarthy on Oct. 3 to the election of Johnson on Oct. 25 — reflects the collapse of the unwritten rule that “majority party members would stick together on the floor in speakership contests.” There is no way, Schickler added, that “the Freedom Caucus would have voted for a member seen as distant from them on key issues.”Does Johnson’s election as speaker improve Democrats’ chances to retake the House in 2024? I asked.Schickler: “It is hard to know. Johnson starts with such a low profile, it is not clear whether Democrats will be able to make him a target.”Johnson’s relative anonymity in the House served him well in his bid for the speakership, insulating him from acrimony. More recently, however, some of Johnson’s out-of-the-mainstream views and alliances have begun to surface.In a July 20, 2005, opinion essay for The Shreveport Times, Johnson argued:All of us should acknowledge the real emotion and strife of the homosexual lifestyle and should certainly treat all people with dignity, love and respect. But our government can never provide its stamp of approval or special legal sanction for behavior patterns that are proven to be destructive to individuals, to families and to society at large. Your race, creed and sex are what you are, while homosexuality and cross-dressing are things you do.“We must always remember,” Johnson concluded, “that it is not bigotry to make moral distinctions.”A year earlier, Johnson wrote, in another opinion essay:The state and its citizens have a compelling interest in preserving the integrity of the marital union by making opposite sex marriage the exclusive form of family relationship endorsed by government. Loss of this status will de-emphasize the importance of traditional marriage to society, weaken it, and place our entire democratic system in jeopardy by eroding its foundation.It would be difficult to overestimate the dangers Johnson foresaw. “Society,” he wrote,cannot give its stamp of approval to such a dangerous lifestyle. If we change marriage for this tiny, modern minority, we will have to do it for every deviant group. Polygamists, polyamorists, pedophiles and others will be next in line to claim equal protection. They already are. There will be no legal basis to deny a bisexual the right to marry a partner of each sex, or a person to marry his pet. If everyone does what is right in his own eyes, chaos and sexual anarchy will result. And make no mistake, the extremists who seek to redefine marriage also want to deny you the right to object to immoral behavior. Our precious religious freedom hangs in the balance.In an Oct. 26 interview with Sean Hannity of Fox News after he was elected to the leadership post, Johnson described his faith in the Bible as his exclusive guide in life:What does Mike Johnson think about any issue under the sun? Go pick up a Bible off your shelf and read it. That’s my worldview. That’s what I believe.On Oct. 27, my Times colleagues Annie Karni, Ruth Graham and Steve Eder reported on a 2006 essay that Johnson posted on Townhall, a right-wing website.In it, they wrote, “Johnson railed against ‘the earnest advocates of atheism and sexual perversion’. He also decried ‘This sprawling alliance of anti-God enthusiasts’ that ‘has proven frighteningly efficient at remaking America in their own brutal, dehumanizing image.’”“In the space of a few decades,” Johnson added, “they have managed to entrench abortion and homosexual behavior, objectify children into sexual objects, criminalize Christianity in the popular culture, and promote guilt and self-doubt as the foremost qualities of our national character.”In lectures, Karni, Graham and Eder wrote, “Johnson has lamented that ‘There’s no transcendent principles anymore. There’s no eternal judge. There’s no absolute standards of right and wrong. All this is exactly the opposite of the way we were founded as a country.’”David Corn, the Washington bureau chief for Mother Jones, reported in an Oct. 28 article that in a series of seminars Johnson and his wife, Kelly, a Christian counselor, conducted — “Answers for Our Times” — the couple addressed such questions as:What is happening in America and how do we fix it? Can our heritage as a Christian Nation be preserved? How should Christians respond to the changing culture? What does the Bible say about today’s problems and issues?In May 2019, Johnson described the goal of the seminars to the Louisiana Baptist Message: “Our nation is entering one of the most challenging seasons in its history, and there is an urgent need for God’s people to be armed and ready with the truth.”For Johnson, the obligation “to be armed and ready with the truth” led him to become a leader of the election denial movement. In December 2020 he recruited 125 fellow House Republicans to sign on to his lawsuit seeking to persuade the Supreme Court to overturn the election results.He told his colleagues that “the initiative had been personally blessed by Mr. Trump, and that the former president was ‘anxiously awaiting’ to see who in Congress would defend him,” The Times reported.In the Supreme Court brief that Johnson filed on Dec. 10, 2020, he argued that the election hadbeen riddled with an unprecedented number of serious allegations of fraud and irregularities. National polls indicate a large percentage of Americans now have serious doubts about not just the outcome of the presidential contest, but also the future reliability of our election system itself. Amici respectfully aver it is the solemn duty of this Court to provide an objective review of these anomalies and to determine for the people if indeed the Constitution has been followed and the rule of law maintained.On Dec. 11, in a brief unsigned order, the Supreme Court dismissed the suit, but Johnson won recognition from his fellow Republicans in the House for his fealty to Trump.Asked shortly after he was elected speaker whether he continued to believe that the 2020 election was stolen, Johnson told a Washington Post reporter: “We’re not talking about any issues today,” adding only, “My position is very well known.”In theory, at least, it is difficult to understand how Johnson can justify his support for Trump, whom Peter Wehner, a senior fellow at the Trinity Forum and a contributing writer for Times Opinion, described this way in The Atlantic in 2020:A man whose lifestyle is more closely aligned with hedonism than with Christianity, Trump clearly sees white evangelicals as a means to an end, people to be used, suckers to be played. He had absolutely no interest in evangelicals before his entry into politics and he will have absolutely no interest in them after his exit. In fact, it’s hard to imagine a person who has less affinity for authentic Christianity — for the teachings of Jesus, from the Sermon on the Mount to the parable of the good Samaritan — than Donald Trump.Johnson’s ascent to the top job in the House also raises a larger, more encompassing question: Will voters care in 2024 (and beyond) that one of America’s two major political parties has been taken over by an alliance of MAGA forces and their white evangelical allies, who have clearly indicated their willingness to abandon democratic norms — that is, democracy itself — in the pursuit of power?Polling suggests that this is a far from settled question.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More