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    Global economy will ‘massively suffer’ from Donald Trump tariffs, Ursula von der Leyen warns – Europe live

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    European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen warned this morning that the global economy “will massively suffer” as a result of tariffs imposed by US president Donald Trump last night, as she said the EU was “prepared to respond.”Despite Trump’s direct attack on “pathetic” EU as he imposed 20% tariffs on the bloc, von der Leyen still expressed hopes that the relationship could “move from confrontation to negotiation,” as she warned “there seems to be no order in disorder.”But it wasn’t immediately obvious that there was any genuine prospect of that happening.Instead the EU and the individual member states are now scrambling to consider how to manage the situation.French president Emmanuel Macron has called an emergency meeting with sectors affected by Trump’s tariffs this afternoon.German economic daily Handelsblatt published new estimates this morning that the US tariffs – including 25% on car imports – could cost German carmakers BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen as much as €11 bn given Germany is the largest EU car exporter to the US. For perspective, it’s just under a third of the total value of German automotive exports to the US at €36.8 bn.But the worry is not only about the immediate impact, but the more long term consequences of last night’s decision.Addressing Europeans directly, von der Leyen said “I know that many of you feel let down by our oldest ally,” as she stressed the need to think about what’s next.Or as Moritz Schularick, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, put it to Handelsblatt:
    “There is this memorable picture of a stick that you can bend and that comes back again and again. But at some point, if you bend too much, the stick breaks.
    I believe that in terms of trust in the United States, something has broken down in recent weeks that will not come back so quickly.”
    It’s Thursday, 3 April 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.Good morning. Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a lively one.Rutte opens with expressing condolences about the death of four US soldiers during a Nato training in Lithuania.He then highlights the new US administration’s desire to “break the deadlock” on Ukraine with Russia, and he pointedly says that European allies step up their spending in response to demands from president Trump.Rubio thanks for his condolences and stresses that the troops’ participation in training shows that the “US is in Nato, … as active as it has ever been,” as he criticised “this hysteria and hyperbole” about the US and Nato.The United States President Trump’s made clear he supports Nato. We’re going to remain in Nato. He’s made it clear,” he says.But he adds that the US wants Nato “to be stronger, more viable” and “invest more in national security.”“[Trump] is not against Nato. He is against a Nato that does not have the capabilities that it needs to fulfil the obligations that the treaty imposes upon each and every member state,” he says.He adds that “no one expects that you’re going to be able to do this in one year or two, but the pathway has to be real.”No questions after their statements, so that’s it.Meanwhile in Brussels, US state secretary Marco Rubio is taking part in today’s Nato ministerial meeting.He is appearing at a press conference together the alliance’s secretary general Mark Rutte now.You can follow it below and I will bring you the key lines here.Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni has cancelled all her appointments on Thursday as she wants to focus on the response to Trump’s tariffs, her office said.La Repubblica reported that she had been expected to attend events in Calabria, but decided to stay in Rome instead.Earlier today, I brought you her initial response to Trump’s announcement from last night, as she opposed the decision and vowed to “do everything we can to work towards an agreement with the United States, with the aim of avoiding a trade war that would inevitably weaken the West in favor of other global players.”Meloni was the only sitting European leader to attend Trump’s inauguration in January.Elsewhere, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Hungary today to meet with the country’s prime minister Viktor Orbán, and that’s despite, as AP notes, a warrant for his arrest issued by the world’s top war crimes court.Instead, Netanyahu was welcomed with military honours at the beginning of his four-day trip, and the two leaders will speak together at a press conference in Budapest later this morning.The international criminal court in The Hague, the Netherlands, issued a warrant for Netanyahu’s arrest last year over his government’s actions in the Gaza Strip. Hungary criticised it at the time as “outrageously impudent” and “cynical.”A senior aide to Orbán said today that Hungary would now move to withdraw from the court, “in accordance with the constitutional and international legal framework.”While that’s a more radical move, a number of other countries previously indicated they would allow Netanyahu to visit without arresting him, including Germany and Poland, while France claimed he had “immunity” from the court’s order.I will keep an eye on this story for you and bring you the latest.The tariff issue has put Spain’s far-right Vox party – devoted fans of Trump and his radical agenda – in something of a bind.But, reacting to news of the 20% tariffs on EU products, the party’s leader, Santiago Abascal, has chosen to blame … the EU and his political opponents in Spain.His recent post on X has more than a whiff of diversionary tactics to it. In it, he accuses Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, Spain’s Socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, and Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the conservative People’s party (PP) of failing to defend the interests of the Spanish people.“The People’s party and the Socialists are dragging us into a suicidal trade war,” he wrote.“Our economy competes on unequal terms because of the ideological bureaucracy of the two-party system. And the only solution they offer is further submission to China, continued wars, and censorship of anyone who speaks out. We must expel this corrupt caste that has only brought ruin and loss of freedoms. And we will do it.”The Spanish Wine Federation (FEV) has described Trump’s imposition of a 20% tariff on EU products as a “significant blow to Spanish wineries”, for whom the US is the second largest export destination, and the No 1 export destination when it comes to sparkling wines.“The tariffs announced by the US are completely unjustified in the specific case of wine, considering that the current tariff gap between the tariffs applied by the EU and the US is minimal,” the FEV’s director general, José Luis Benítez, said on Thursday.Benítez warned that the measure would harm not only Spanish wine-makers but also US consumers, “who consume more wine than they produce”.He also pointed out that the newly announced tariffs would be particularly damaging to small and medium-sized producers, which make up 99% of Spain’s wineries, as they have less capacity to diversify their exports and are more dependent on the main export markets.The US market represents approximately 13% of Spain’s total foreign sales. In 2024, 97m litres of wine were exported for a value of around €390m.German chancellor Olaf Scholz said Trump’s decision was “fundamentally wrong” and undermined the free trade globally, as he warned that all countries “will suffer from these ill-considered decisions.”He said it amounted to “an attack on a trade system that has created prosperity all round the world, itself an American achievement.”Using similar language, German economy minister Robert Habeck said these were “the most disruptive tariff increases in 90 years,” as he warned of potentially “dramatic” effects of the US president’s decisions.Speaking at a press conference in Berlin, Habeck said it was “economically wrong” to say that the existing trading arrangements were “of detriment to the US,” as he called to reject this logic and urged nations in favour of free trade to form a united front in response.Habeck warned that the consequences of these decisions will affect the next federal government and have ramifications “far beyond Germany and beyond Europe.”]The minister also spoke about countermeasures being prepared in response. He said he was not in a position to show them or announce details yet – although he briefly waves the documents at reporters – but he insisted that “good work has been done there” to prepare for this moment.He added that he hoped Trump would buckle under pressure, but “the logical consequence is that he has to feel the pressure” from Germany, Europe and other like-minded countries.Greek finance minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis said that the fresh tariffs imposed by the US government on world trade were a historic shift towards protectionism and a deviation from how the European Union sees economic and social progress, Reuters reported.“As a country, we are in favour of free trade,” Pierrakakis said in a statement. “We hope that this chapter will last as little as possible.”French prime minister François Bayrou told reporters that Donald Trump’s tariffs marked “a catastrophe” for the global economy, and posed “an immense difficulty” for Europe.Speaking on the margins of a meeting in the French Senate, he also said the move will be “a catastrophe for the US and for US citizens.”In comments reported by BFMTV and Le Figaro, Bayrou criticised the US for turning on its allies, as he warned about “serious times” facing Europe and the West.The EU will respond in a “legitimate, proportionate and decisive way” to Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, but its strongest weapon is still “a last resort”, the head of the European parliament’s international trade committee has said.Bernd Lange, a German Social Democrat, said the EU was discussing the use of the anti-coercion instrument, which EU insiders almost inevitably describe as “the big bazooka”.The anti-coercion legislation, which entered into force in 2023, gives the EU wide leeway to impose commerce and investment sanctions against a foreign government deemed to be using trade in an attempt to browbeat countries into changing unrelated policies. The law allows the EU to use ten different kinds of retaliation against a coercive government, notably targeting services. Possible measures could include taxing tech companies, revoking banking licenses and intellectual property rights, blocking companies from public procurementIt was agreed not long after China had imposed trade restrictions on Lithuania over the Baltic state’s friendly policy towards Taiwan.Lange, who helped negotiate the law, said the EU was discussing use of this instrument – “this is of course the bazooka, the strongest measure we could take” – but it would only be used as a last resort.“This is not our first step. Using the ACI, this would really be hard escalation and therefore a last resort, but we have it.”Having renamed Trump’s so-called “liberation day”, as “inflation day”, the MEP said that the EU could target US tech giants in retaliation for tariffs, which is possible even without the anti-coercion law. “Of course if we are really on an escalation ladder, then of course we will have a look to the tech giants as well – I would say this is not the first choice.”The MEP, who travels to Washington next week, still hopes the EU can negotiate its way out of tariffs, but is not optimistic. He described the structure of the US government as “totally unclear” and that only the president and his trade adviser, Peter Navarro, controlled trade, rather than senior officials, such as the US Trade Representative, adding: “That is really a mess.”The EU has some options when considering its response to overnight announcements, including retaliating with tariffs on US goods and services and forming closer ties with other countries.The bloc has already rejected one possible option: fold your cards. But vowing retaliation is only the start.The questions are about what response the EU will have, how quickly it can be marshalled and whether divisions between member states will undermine the tough talk.The EU response will depend on how tightly its 27 member states line up behind a common strategy in a trade war that could trigger economic turmoil and job losses in Europe. An early indication should come on Monday when EU trade ministers meet to discuss the retaliation planned for this month and other measures.Nerves are building. France is worried about the fallout on its wines and spirits industry; Dublin fears an exodus of US multinationals headquartered in Ireland; and the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, has said the bloc should not act on impulse while the national industry group Confindustria has called for negotiations with the White House.Forging a common line will be critical to new forms of trade retaliation: for example, only a weighted majority of EU countries can decide whether the bloc is facing coercion from the US. That would be an outcome almost no one imagined a decade ago.The German Federation of Business, BDI, has denounced Trump’s tariffs as an “unprecedented attack” on global trade.In a statement issued this morning, it warned that “the European economy must not become a plaything of geopolitical interests” and called for a united response to the 20% tax the 27 countries now face.
    “The announced tariffs are an unprecedented attack on the international trading system, free trade, and global supply chains. The rationale for this protectionist escalation is incomprehensible. It threatens our export-oriented companies and jeopardizes prosperity, stability, jobs, innovation, and investment worldwide.
    The European Union can only act as a united front. This applies to the 27 member states as well as across sectors. The EU has its own instruments for an effective counter-reaction, which it can use decisively. We support the Commission’s strategy of remaining willing to negotiate, aware of Europe’s strengths, and responding flexibly to potential offers.
    German industry has always relied on fair competition, open markets, and cooperative relations with the United States. The EU must now strengthen its alliances with other major trading partners and should coordinate its response with them. A coordinated response is also necessary to counter diversion effects in international trade.”
    Elsewhere, Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen continues her three-day trip to Greenland amid escalating tensions with the US over the future status of the island.Arriving yesterday, she said “it is clear that with the pressure put on Greenland by the Americans, in terms of sovereignty, borders and the future, we need to stay united.”“I have but one wish and that is to do all that I can to take care of this marvellous country and to support it at a difficult time,” Frederiksen said.She had a dinner with the new Greenlandic prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, last night, and today gets on with a full programme of meetings likely to touch on the future shape of Danish-Greenlandic relations and economic cooperation.Frederiksen also met with the outgoing prime minister Múte B. Egede who will remain a prominent figure in the new government formed after last month’s snap elections in Greenland.The talks will be a first test for Nielsen’s new administration on whether it can formulate new demands to Copenhagen and get things done in the face of US interest in the island.Frederiksen’s visit comes just days after a highly controversial trip by US vice-president JD Vance, who came over to the US Pituffik Space Base only to directly criticise Denmark for “not doing a good job at keeping Greenland safe,” and accusing it of “underinvesting in the people of Greenland and … in the security architecture” of the island.Earlier this week, Washington Post reported that the Trump administration was studying the potential costs involved should the US succeed in its plans of taking control over Greenland, including whether it could put together a more attractive financial package to compete with Denmark.The paper said that officials were also looking at what revenue to the US Treasury could be gained from the island’s natural resources.I will keep an eye on what comes out of Frederiksen’s meetings.European stock markets are now open and they’re reacting exactly as you would expect them to.The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has fallen 1.5% at the start of trading, to its lowest level in over two months.Germany’s DAX fell almost 2.5% at the start of tading in Frankfurt, while in Paris the CAC 40 is down 2.2% and Spain’s IBEX lost 1.5%.You can follow all the latest business reaction here:Norwegian prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre expressed alarm over “bad news” on US tariffs warning they were “very serious,” with Norway hit by a 15% levy on its goods imported to the US.But Støre told public broadcaster NRK that “there is an opening for negotiations here, the Americans say, and we will use that in every possible way that we can,” Reuters reported.Støre also said he would travel to Brussels on Monday to meet with senior EU officials, including European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to discuss further steps.UK prime minister Keir Starmer told business chiefs that “clearly there will be an economic impact” from Donald Trump’s tariffs, as he insisted the government would react with “cool and calm heads,” PA news agency reported.He said “nothing is off the table” when it comes to the UK response.Starmer said the government will now focus on making decisions “guided only by our national interest” and on “putting money in the pockets of working people,” as he stressed “one of the great strengths of this nation is our ability to keep a cool head.”Here are some further quotes from Starmer, via PA:
    “Today marks a new stage in our preparation. We have a range of levers at our disposal and we will continue our work with businesses across the country to discuss their assessment of the options.”
    “Our intention remains to secure a deal, but nothing is off the table.”
    “We must rise to this challenge and that is why I’ve instructed my team to move further and faster on the changes I believe will make our economy stronger and more resilient.”
    “Because this Government will do everything necessary to defend the UK’s national interest, everything necessary to provide the foundation of security that working people need to get on with their lives.”
    “That is how we have acted and how we will continue to act: with pragmatism, cool and calm heads, focused on our national security.”
    Our political editor, Pippa Crerar, noted that Downing Street, which had been expecting a 20% rate to be imposed on the UK, expressed relief to have escaped the higher rate with lower, 10% tariffs.Keir Starmer’s more conciliatory approach to the Trump administration appeared to have paid off, she said.European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen warned of “dire consequences” for millions of people, as she said tariffs would “hurt consumers around the world.”She said there was “no clear path through the complexity and chaos that is being created as all US trading partners are hit,” but she insisted the EU’s unity “is our strength” and the bloc would be prepared to respond with calibrated countermeasures.Outgoing German economy minister Robert Habeck stressed the need for a united EU response, saying the bloc should leverage the fact it has the largest single market in the world.“Europe’s strength is our strength,” he said, adding he hoped for “a negotiated solution.”Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni called the introduction of US tariffs “wrong” as she vowed to “do everything we can to work towards an agreement with the United States, with the aim of avoiding a trade war that would inevitably weaken the West in favor of other global players.”“In any case, as always, we will act in the interest of Italy and its economy, also by discussing with other European partners,” she added.Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson said he “deeply regreted” the US decision, saying “we don’t want growing trade barriers” as he lauded the benefits of free trade.But he said the government was ready to respond and work with the EU to “take every opportunity to reverse these developments.”“We want to find our way back to the path of trade and cooperation together with the US,” he stressed.Irish prime minister Micheál Martin said that tariffs “benefit no one,” as he warned they are “bad for the world economy, they hurt people [and] businesses.”“My priority, and that of the government, is to protect Irish jobs and the Irish economy, and we will work with our companies … to navigate the period ahead,” he said.He said he would work with EU partners to “get on a negotiation with the US to limit the damage.”Martin also highlighted “the added value and the strength that Ireland has given to so many US companies” based there.Polish prime minister Donald Tusk posted a brief update on social media, saying: “Friendship means partnership. Partnership means really and truly reciprocal tariffs. Adequate decisions are needed.”Finnish prime minister Petteri Orpo said the tariff decisions were “concerning,” as he warned “there are no winners in a trade war.”“Businesses, consumers, and economic growth suffer. The EU is ready to respond and negotiate. We support this effort. Finland is prepared as part of the Union,” he said.European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen warned this morning that the global economy “will massively suffer” as a result of tariffs imposed by US president Donald Trump last night, as she said the EU was “prepared to respond.”Despite Trump’s direct attack on “pathetic” EU as he imposed 20% tariffs on the bloc, von der Leyen still expressed hopes that the relationship could “move from confrontation to negotiation,” as she warned “there seems to be no order in disorder.”But it wasn’t immediately obvious that there was any genuine prospect of that happening.Instead the EU and the individual member states are now scrambling to consider how to manage the situation.French president Emmanuel Macron has called an emergency meeting with sectors affected by Trump’s tariffs this afternoon.German economic daily Handelsblatt published new estimates this morning that the US tariffs – including 25% on car imports – could cost German carmakers BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen as much as €11 bn given Germany is the largest EU car exporter to the US. For perspective, it’s just under a third of the total value of German automotive exports to the US at €36.8 bn.But the worry is not only about the immediate impact, but the more long term consequences of last night’s decision.Addressing Europeans directly, von der Leyen said “I know that many of you feel let down by our oldest ally,” as she stressed the need to think about what’s next.Or as Moritz Schularick, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, put it to Handelsblatt:
    “There is this memorable picture of a stick that you can bend and that comes back again and again. But at some point, if you bend too much, the stick breaks.
    I believe that in terms of trust in the United States, something has broken down in recent weeks that will not come back so quickly.”
    It’s Thursday, 3 April 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.Good morning. Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a lively one. More

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      EU retaliates against Trump tariffs with €26bn ‘countermeasures’

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      The EU has announced it will impose trade “countermeasures” on €26bn (£22bn) worth of US goods in retaliation after Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, escalating a global trade war.The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called the 25% US levies on global imports of the metals “unjustified trade restrictions”, after they came into force at 4am GMT on Wednesday.“We deeply regret this measure,” von der Leyen said in a statement, as Brussels announced it would be “launching a series of countermeasures” on 1 April. “The European Union must act to protect consumers and business,” she added.The commission said it would be targeting industrial products in response, including steel and aluminium, as well as household tools, plastics and wooden goods.In addition, the EU measures will affect some US agricultural products, such as poultry, beef, some seafood, nuts, eggs, dairy, sugar and vegetables, provided they are approved by member states.The retaliatory measures will also entail Brussels reimposing the tariffs on US goods including bourbon whiskey, jeans and Harley-Davidson motorbikes that it introduced during the first Trump term.“We will always remain open to negotiation. We firmly believe that in a world fraught with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, it is not in our common interest to burden our economies with tariffs,” von der Leyen said.France’s European affairs minister, Benjamin Haddad, said on Wednesday that the EU could “go further” in its response to the US tariffs. The measures “are proportionate”, Haddad told TF1 television. “If it came to a situation where we had to go further, digital services or intellectual property could be included,” he said.Britain would not issue its own immediate measures in response to the US tariffs but was going to “reserve our right to retaliate”, a UK minister said.The exchequer secretary to the Treasury, James Murray, told Times Radio the levies were disappointing but “we want to take a pragmatic approach, and we’re already negotiating rapidly toward an economic agreement with the US, with the potential to eliminate additional tariffs”.Asked by Sky News whether Britain’s response to the levies could be called weak in comparison with Brussels, Murray said the UK was in a “very different position than the EU” and does not want to be “pushed off course” as it pursues a trade deal with Washington.“We think the right response is to continue pragmatically, cool-headedly, without a knee-jerk response, but toward our economic agreement that we’re negotiating with the US to secure, because that’s in the best interests of the UK,” he said.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHis comments came after the prime minister, Keir Starmer, said on Tuesday that Britain would not respond with its own counter-tariffs, after last-ditch efforts to persuade Trump to spare British industry from his global tariffs appeared to have failed.The UK steel industry warned that Trump’s tariffs “couldn’t come at a worse time”, and said the move would have “hugely damaging consequences for UK suppliers and their customers in the US”.Gareth Stace, the director general of the trade association UK Steel, called the Trump administration’s move “hugely disappointing”. He said: “President Trump must surely recognise that the UK is an ally, not a foe. Our steel sector is not a threat to the US but a partner to key customers, sharing the same values and objectives in addressing global overcapacity and tackling unfair trade.“These tariffs couldn’t come at a worse time for the UK steel industry, as we battle with high energy costs and subdued demand at home, against an oversupplied and increasingly protectionist global landscape.”The introduction of EU measures came after a day of drama on Tuesday, when Trump threatened to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium in response to Canadian threats to increase electricity prices for US customers.The US president backed off from those plans after the Ontario premier, Doug Ford, agreed to suspend his province’s decision to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the states of Minnesota, Michigan and New York. More

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      The Guardian view on Ursula von der Leyen’s first 100 days: the steepest of learning curves | Editorial

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      In a press conference on Sunday to mark 100 days since the beginning of her second term as European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen erred on the side of understatement when asked whether she still considered the US to be an ally. The answer was yes, she replied, before adding that “we have our discussion points without question”.Hard to argue with that. Regarding the war in Ukraine, international trade and existential questions concerning the future of European defence and security, the geopolitical landscape bears no resemblance to the one that Ms von der Leyen looked out upon on 1 December. As Mr Trump and his “America first” outriders have confounded cherished assumptions about the transatlantic alliance, they have also sought to encourage authoritarian nationalism in EU member states.In France and Germany, the fabled engine of European integration, this has been uncomfortably akin to knocking at an open door. In Paris, days after Ms von der Leyen reassumed office, Michel Barnier’s shortlived government collapsed when Marine Le Pen pulled the rug from under it. In Germany, well before Elon Musk and JD Vance championed its cause, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party had reached historically high levels of support that would see it finish comfortably second in February’s snap German election.As Ms von der Leyen put it on Sunday: “Our European values, democracy, freedom, the rule of law are under threat.” The response, from Brussels and in national capitals, needs to be both robust and more expeditious than is often the case in the labyrinthine world of EU policymaking. Happily, the initial signs are positive.The move last week by EU leaders to disapply the bloc’s fiscal rules to military spending, potentially freeing up £670bn, is a significant step towards achieving greater strategic autonomy from Washington. It followed the unveiling of extraordinarily radical proposals in the same week by Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz. Bypassing a constitutional restriction on state borrowing, these are designed to facilitate not only far greater spending on defence, but also on the modernisation of a stagnating economy.After decades in which EU economic policy has been skewed by Berlin’s traditional debt aversion – shared with other “frugal” member states such as the Netherlands and Denmark – this is a very different direction of travel. As Europe exits an era defined by an uncritical commitment to free trade and dependency on the US security umbrella, it is also the right one. Recognising the desire of many member states to formalise common borrowing arrangements introduced following Covid, Ms von der Leyen said “nothing is off the table” in relation to defence. But, as the Draghi report argued last autumn, the same kind of fiscal firepower is required to meet the challenge of the green transition and compete with the US and China for the jobs and future industries of the 21st century.Last month in Brussels, a different kind of centenary was marked when a bust of a former commission president, Jacques Delors, was unveiled. Born in 1925, Mr Delors became the preeminent champion of a “social” vision, in which common EU institutions would deploy pooled resources in order to build a Europe where solidarity and growth were intertwined. That perspective faded from view following the neoliberal turn in the 1980s. As Ms von der Leyen navigates the rest of her five-year term, its time has come again.

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      Starmer’s diplomatic flurry puts him at centre of attempts to shape Ukraine-Russia deal

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      As Keir Starmer and his aides huddled to discuss their response to Friday’s calamitous White House meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the prime minister’s team pondered whether to issue a statement on social media.Already messages of support were flooding in for the Ukrainian president from other European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron of France and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen.But the prime minister decided to stay silent and instead display his backing with action rather than words. After a series of phone calls on Friday night, Starmer brought forward a planned visit by Zelenskyy to London, giving him the opportunity for a symbolic meeting at Downing Street followed by an audience with King Charles.“I picked up the phone to President Trump, and I picked up the phone to President Zelensky,” Starmer told the BBC on Sunday. “That was my response.”Starmer’s flurry of diplomatic activity has resulted in a Franco-British peace effort which puts the prime minister at the centre of European attempts to shape any deal between Moscow and Kyiv.“Starmer’s was a big gesture,” said Bronwen Maddox, the director of the Chatham House thinktank. “Having Zelenskyy here, having that meeting, mattered. There is no need to go rushing around tweeting. He’s now trying to be a bridge between the US and Zelenskyy and Europe, which is a reasonable ambition.”Some even believe this could be Starmer’s “Falklands moment”, referring to the way Margaret Thatcher took on Argentina over the Falkland Islands and in doing so rebooted her flagging premiership. By Sunday morning, Starmer was being backed by the leaders of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.“It’s really important that this summit the prime minister is having today goes well and we support him in that,” the Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, said on Sunday.Starmer’s calls with Trump and Zelenskyy on Friday night focused on trying to get the minerals deal between the two countries back on track.One Downing Street official said: “We need to ensure there is a minerals agreement and there is a plan for stopping the fighting and giving Ukraine the security guarantees it needs. The minerals deal is still on the table.”View image in fullscreenOfficials rejected reports that Starmer’s call with Zelenskyy had been “emotional”, but said the Ukrainian president had clearly found his encounter with Trump “bruising”. The two men agreed that Zelenskyy would visit London 24 hours earlier than planned, allowing him time for a longer meeting in Downing Street before a trip to Sandringham on Sunday to meet King Charles.Officials said the visit to see the king was a deliberate message to Washington, where Trump is eagerly awaiting his own audience with the monarch, with US officials pushing for a state visit as soon as this year.Starmer then spent Saturday around the cabinet table in discussions with Jonathan Powell, his national security adviser, and other senior officials. They had come to the conclusion there was little they could do to restart US-Ukrainian talks, so decided to come up with an alternative plan to help shape the peace deal.The plan they hit upon was a separate set of discussions, this time involving Britain, France, Ukraine and potentially one or two others, to formulate their own prospective deal to present to the US. The talks would provide a counterbalance to those between the US and Russia which have excluded Ukraine and European countries.Starmer called Macron, who welcomed the idea. But there was one more hurdle to clear: the prime minister had to call the US president for the second time in two days to make sure he was not opposed.Officials briefed on the call would not say what Trump’s reaction to the idea was, or even whether he indicated he would not stand in the way. But the prime minister was sufficiently emboldened by the conversation that he decided to announce the talks on the BBC on Sunday morning.“The second Trump call was much more focused on not wanting to go back over what has happened, but saying, if we move forward with this other plan, would you be interested in us doing that?” said one British official. “There is no point in us doing this if the US didn’t feel there was space for that. Clearly we are doing it, so we thought it was a worthwhile exercise.”Saturday evening culminated with Starmer’s Downing Street talks with Zelenskyy. In front of the assembled press, the prime minister took the unusual step of leaving No 10 to greet Zelenskyy from his car, before walking him back down the street again after their meeting.View image in fullscreen“And as you heard from the cheers on the street outside, you have full backing across the United Kingdom,” Starmer told his Ukrainian counterpart. “We stand with you, with Ukraine, for as long as it may take.”Sunday was yet another intense day of diplomacy for the prime minister, who began by speaking to the leaders of all three Baltic states and then hosted the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, at Downing Street. Meloni, who arguably has the best relations with Trump of any European leader, has called for an immediate summit between the US, EU and other allied countries to discuss Ukraine.From there, Starmer travelled to Lancaster House for his defence summit, which was attended by representatives from across Europe, as well as officials from Turkey and Nato.British officials are aware that all this activity may result in very little. They have yet to secure their main objective – a promise from Trump to offer military backing to any British and European troops posted to secure a new border between Russia and Ukraine.But for now, Downing Street is delighted that the prime minister has managed to navigate the turbulent geopolitics of a Trump-led US, and in doing so prove that post-Brexit Britain can still play a global leadership role.“It’s a testament to the relationship the prime minister has with the presidents of both America and Ukraine that he was able to host Zelenskyy and speak to Trump not once but twice over the days,” said one official.Additional reporting by Angela Giuffrida in Rome More

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      Keir Starmer lays down Ukraine peace demand ahead of Trump talks

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      Keir Starmer has raised the stakes before a crucial meeting in Washington with the US president, Donald Trump this week, by insisting that Ukraine must be “at the heart of any negotiations” on a peace deal with Russia.The prime minister made the remarks – which run directly contrary to comments by the US president last week – in a phone call on Saturdaywith Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in which he also said that “safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty was essential to deter future aggression from Russia”.Downing Street made clear that the prime minister would carry the same tough messages into his meeting with Trump in the White House on Thursday.Starmer is likely to tell the US president that the UK will raise its defence spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product, in line with Labour’s election manifesto commitment.The prime minister is also expected to extend an invitation to Trump from King Charles for a second state visit to the UK.But the meeting is also expected to represent the biggest test of Starmer’s diplomatic and negotiating skills in his prime ministership by far, as he tries to retain good relations with Trump while making clear the UK and Europe’s red lines on Ukraine and Russia.View image in fullscreenSources said Starmer may speak to Emmanuel Macron on Sunday before the French president’s talks with Trump on Monday. The aim would be to agree a broad European position on the Trump-led effort to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Starmer also spoke yesterday to the European Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, and agreed that Europe must “step up” to ensure Ukraine’s security.Starmer’s meeting with Trump is being described in Westminster as possibly career-defining for the prime minister. Former UK foreign secretary William Hague said it was the most important first bilateral between a prime minister and a president since the start of the second world war.After a week of extraordinary anti-Zelenskyy and pro-Russian rhetoric from Trump and his team, the US president issued another dismissive assault on Zelenskyy’s leadership and relevance to a peace deal on Friday, saying: “I don’t think he’s very important to be at meetings, to be honest with you. When Zelenskyy said: ‘Oh, he wasn’t invited to a meeting,’ I mean, it wasn’t a priority because he did such a bad job in negotiating so far.”View image in fullscreenAs well as dismissing the democratically elected Zelenskyy as a dictator, the White House has been pressuring Ukraine’s president to sign a $500bn minerals deal in which he would give the US half of his country’s mineral resources. The Trump administration says this is “payback” for earlier US military assistance.Zelenskyy has so far refused to sign, arguing that the agreement lacks clear US security guarantees.Reuters reported that the US was also threatening to disconnect Ukraine from Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet system if Zelenskyy does not accept the Trump administration’s sweeping terms.Ukrainian officials characterised the threat as “blackmail”, saying to do so would have a catastrophic impact on the ability of frontline Ukrainian combat units to contain Russia.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe news agency said the US envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, raised the possibility of a shut-off during talks on Thursday with Zelenskyy in Kyiv. An under-pressure Zelenskyy has signalled his willingness to accommodate Washington’s demand, but he has stressed he cannot “sell out” his country.Ukrainian officials are scrambling to find alternatives to Starlink in the event that Trump’s threat is carried out. Ukraine’s armed forces depend on the system to provide real-time video drone footage of the battlefield and to conduct accurate strikes against Russian targets.The Russian military uses Starlink too. Ukrainian commanders are now contemplating a nightmare scenario, in which Musk’s SpaceX company switches off Ukrainian access while continuing to offer it to the Russians – with the White House in effect helping Moscow to win the war.A senior Ukrainian official said his country’s armed forces need American satellite intelligence data. If intelligence sharing were to stop, Ukraine would struggle to continue its successful campaign of long-range strikes against targets deep inside Russia, he said.Asked if the US threat to turn off Starlink was blackmail, he replied: “Yes. If it happens, it’s going to be pretty bad. Of that we can be sure.” Frontline troops used the internet system continuously and it was fitted on advanced naval drones used to sink Russian ships in the Black Sea, he noted.Speaking on Friday, Trump rowed back on some of his earlier comments, which included a false claim that Zelenskyy was deeply unpopular, with a “4%” rating. Trump told Fox News that Russia did invade Ukraine but said Zelenskyy and the then US president Joe Biden should have averted it. “They shouldn’t have let him [Putin] attack,” he declared.Trump’s aggressive remarks have consolidated support for Zelenskyy among Ukrainians, with 63% now approving of him, according to the latest opinion poll before the third anniversary on Monday of Russia’s full-scale invasion.An Opinium poll for the Observer finds more than three times as many UK voters (56%) disapprove of the Trump’s administration handling of Ukraine as approve (17%).About 55% think it likely the UK will need to participate in a large military conflict over the next five years, compared with a fifth (20%) who think it unlikely. A majority (60%) of people believe the UK should increase defence spending. More

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      The Guardian view on the EU-Mercosur trade deal: another farmer flashpoint approaches | Letters

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      Anticipating the strong protectionist winds that will blow from Donald Trump’s White House, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has been responding by making her own economic weather. Last week, Ms von der Leyen flew to Montevideo, 5,000 miles south of Washington DC, to controversially conclude negotiations in one of the biggest free trade agreements in history. Twenty-five years in the making, the Mercosur trade deal opens up trade between the EU and a Latin American bloc of partners comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.In theory, the agreement promises a more open market of 700 million people for products ranging from Argentine beef to German cars. For European manufacturers, it would eliminate tariffs on a majority of goods. As Mr Trump threatens to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese and European exports, here was evidence, asserted Ms von der Leyen, “that openness and cooperation are the true engines of progress and prosperity”.This sunny analysis does not, however, tell the whole story. From an economic perspective, the Mercosur deal makes sense for Europe, offering an alternative market in the event of US tariffs and amid the continuing Chinese slowdown. It also deepens European connections with the global south, at a time when Beijing is doing the same in systematic fashion. But the political realities are treacherous: opposing Mercosur is a common cause celebre among European farmers, who fear being undercut by Latin American producers who are not subject to the same environmental standards.At the end of a year in which farmers’ protests have made headlines across the continent, and far-right parties have exploited rural resentment to attack the EU’s green transition, this is territory to be navigated with extreme care. The deal has yet to be ratified, and EU member states are split. Germany, desperate to shore up its export industry, is strongly in favour. France, whose farmers famously carry immense political clout, is implacably opposed. Serious reservations have been expressed by the Netherlands, Poland, Austria, Italy and Ireland.Less than a month after officially beginning her second term in office, Ms von der Leyen is taking a risk by pushing ahead at pace when such divisions exist. Approval of the trade part of the overall deal may be subject to a qualified majority vote, meaning that France would not be able to exercise its veto. That would be grist to Marine Le Pen’s mill, given that, in one recent poll, almost two-thirds of French citizens said they no longer had confidence in the EU. Meanwhile, the prospect of a disunited European front – with France and Germany at loggerheads – as Mr Trump enters the White House, is not an uplifting one.In the quarter of a century since the Mercosur negotiations began, the negative impacts of globalisation on particular European regions and economic sectors have driven a backlash that has benefited the far right. Trade deals are about politics as well as economics. To avoid the fallout of this deal overshadowing the economic gains, Brussels should make it a priority that losers from it are adequately compensated. Bypassing a necessary battle for hearts and minds, as the EU confronts new geopolitical challenges without and the rise of Eurosceptic nationalism within, is not a viable option.

      Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. More

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      Trump told European leaders that US ‘will never come to help you’

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      Donald Trump told the president of the European Commission in 2020 that the US would “never come help” if Europe was attacked and also said “Nato is dead”, a senior European commissioner said.Multiple news outlets said the exchange between Trump and Ursula von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2020 was described in Brussels on Tuesday by Thierry Breton, a French European commissioner responsible for the internal market, with responsibilities including defence.“You need to understand that if Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you,” Trump said, according to Breton, who was speaking at the European parliament.According to Breton, Trump also said: “By the way, Nato is dead, and we will leave, we will quit Nato.”According to the Jerusalem Post, Trump added: “And by the way, you owe me $400bn, because you didn’t pay, you Germans, what you had to pay for defence.”As Germany’s defence minister, von der Leyen was among European officials who pushed back at Trump on the issue of funding.But threats to quit Nato, and demands that European nations increase contributions to it, were as much a feature of Trump’s presidency as concern over his opaque, apparently submissive relationship with Vladimir Putin.Trump claims to understand the Russian president, who he says waited until Trump was out of office before invading Ukraine.In Brussels, Breton reportedly said Trump’s 2020 remarks were “a big wake-up call” and warned: “He may come back.”The first contest of this year’s Republican presidential primary, the Iowa caucuses, takes place on Monday.Trump faces 91 criminal charges, legal attempts to keep him off the ballot and assorted civil threats, yet enjoys huge polling leads over his closest rivals: Ron DeSantis, the hard-right governor of Florida, and Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the UN.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionPolling regarding a notional general election between Trump and Joe Biden shows a close contest, with Trump often in the lead.“Now more than ever, we know that we are on our own, of course,” Politico reported Breton as saying.“We are a member of Nato, almost all of us, of course we have allies, but we have no other options but to increase drastically [spending on arms] in order to be ready [for] whatever happens.”Trump’s campaign did not immediately comment. More

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      European leaders hail 'new dawn' for ties with US under Biden

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      European leaders have voiced relief at Joe Biden’s inauguration, hailing a “new dawn” for Europe and the US, but warned that the world has changed after four years of Donald Trump’s presidency and transatlantic ties will be different in future.“This new dawn in America is the moment we’ve been awaiting for so long,” Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president, told MEPs. “Once again, after four long years, Europe has a friend in the White House.”The head of the EU’s executive arm said Biden’s swearing-in was “a demonstration of the resilience of American democracy”, and the bloc stood “ready to reconnect with an old and trusted partner to breathe new life into our cherished alliance”.But Von der Leyen said relief should not lead to illusion, since while “Trump may soon be consigned to history, his followers remain”.Charles Michel, the president of the European council, also said the US had changed. Transatlantic relations had “greatly suffered” and the world had grown “more complex, less stable and less predictable”, said Michel, who chairs summits between the EU’s 27 heads of state and government.“We have our differences and they will not magically disappear. America seems to have changed, and how it’s perceived in Europe and the rest of the world has also changed,” he said. Europeans “must take our fate firmly into our own hands”.A study this week showed that while many Europeans welcomed Biden’s election victory, more people than not felt that after four years of Trump the US could not be trusted, and a majority believed Biden would not be able to mend a “broken” country or reverse its decline on the world stage.The EU has invited Biden to a summit and top-level Nato meeting when he is ready, with Michel called for “a new founding pact” to boost multilateral cooperation, combat Covid, tackle climate change and aid economic recovery.The German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said he was “greatly relieved” at Biden’s inauguration, hailing “a good day for democracy”. He said democracy under the Trump administration had faced “tremendous challenges and endured … and proved strong”.Steinmeier said the transfer of power to Biden brought with it “the hope that the international community can work together more closely”, and he said Germany was looking forward “to knowing we once more have the US at our side as an indispensable partner”.However, he said that “despite the joy of this day”, the last four years had shown that “we must resolutely stand up to polarisation, protect and strengthen our democracies, and make policy on the basis of reason and facts.”Italy’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, said his country was “looking forward to the Biden presidency, with which we will start working immediately.” He said the two countries had a strong common agenda, including “effective multilateralism, climate change, green and digital transition and social inclusion.”The Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said Biden’s victory represented “the victory of democracy over the ultra-right and its three methods – massive deception, national division, and abuse, sometimes violent, of democratic institutions.”Five years ago, Sánchez said, the world had believed Trump to be “a bad joke. But five years later we realised he jeopardised nothing less than the world’s most powerful democracy.”Britain’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, who has faced criticism for his close relationship with Trump, said he was looking forward to working closely with Biden, citing a host of policy areas in which he hoped to collaborate.“In our fight against Covid and across climate change, defence, security, and in promoting and defending democracy, our goals are the same and our nations will work hand in hand to achieve them,” Johnson said in a statement.The former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev called for Russia and the US to repair their strained ties. “The current condition of relations between Russia and the US is of great concern,” he said in an interview with the state-run news agency Tass. “But this also means that something has to be done about it in order to normalise relations. We cannot fence ourselves off from each other.”Among the US’s more outspoken foes, Iran, which has repeatedly called on Washington to lift sanctions imposed over its nuclear drive, did not miss the chance to celebrate Trump’s departure.“A tyrant’s era came to an end and today is the final day of his ominous reign,” said the president, Hassan Rouhani. “We expect the Biden administration to return to law and to commitments, and try in the next four years, if they can, to remove the stains of the past four years.”Biden’s administration has said it wants the US back in the landmark Iran nuclear accord from which Trump withdrew, providing Tehran returns to strict compliance.The Nato chief, Jens Stoltenberg, said the military alliance hoped to strengthen transatlantic ties under the new president, adding that the world faced “global challenges that none of us can tackle alone”. More

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      Ursula von der Leyen: Europe has a friend in the White House with Biden – video

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      The European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has said the EU, after four years, has a ‘friend in the White House’ on the eve of Joe Biden’s inauguration on Wednesday.
      ‘Joe Biden’s oath will be a message of healing for deeply divided nation,’ she said. ‘This new dawn in America is the moment we’ve been awaiting for so long. Europe is ready for a new start with our oldest and most trusted partner.’
      Inauguration day: a guide to what to expect as Joe Biden assumes office More