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    Build your own US election: plot a path to victory for Biden or Trump

    US elections 2020

    Biden may be ahead in the polls, but key battlegrounds that the Democrats lost unexpectedly in 2016 could come through again for Trump in November. Use our simulator to build your own election night scenario

    Mon 28 Sep 2020 06.00 EDT

    Last modified on Mon 28 Sep 2020 09.55 EDT

    The electoral map has shifted in 2020, amid new challenges from misinformation to mail-in ballots. Previously reliable states on both sides are now looking more competitive.
    In the interactive graphic below, you decide which way these closer states will vote, and try to pave Joe Biden or Donald Trump’s path to victory.
    Some states remain very likely to go to Biden or Trump because they were won by large margins in 2016, or they have voted the same way in several recent elections. Such states – ranked either a “solid” or “likely” win for either party, according to the Cook Political Report – have already been coloured in for Biden and Trump in the graphic below.
    A majority of 270 electoral votes out of a total of 538 is needed to win, and the remaining states are up to you. Can you take Biden to victory? Or will Trump stay in the White House?

    Choose which way the key swing states will vote and trace Biden or Trump’s potential path to victory.

    JOE BIDEN
    BIDEN

    electoral college votes

    DONALD TRUMP
    TRUMP

    electoral college votes

    Under your scenario,
    would win the election!

    Under your scenario,
    Nobody would win the election. It’s a tie! More

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    Trump claims Joe Biden is on 'performance-enhancing drugs' – video

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    1:35

    After the New York Times’ revelations about his tax returns, Donald Trump hit back with a series of baseless allegations, including that his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, had used ‘performance-enhancing drugs’ during appearances. In an unfocused White House briefing, the US president also accused Biden’s son, Hunter, of corruption and speculated about non-existent Democrat policies of unattended open borders
    Donald Trump steps up wild attacks on Joe Biden as first debate looms
    Will the New York Times taxes report sink Donald Trump?

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    Donald Trump steps up wild attacks on Joe Biden as first debate looms

    Five weeks from from polling day, two days from the first presidential candidates’ debate, and moments after the New York Times published bombshell revelations about Donald Trump’s taxes, the US president took aim at his Democratic opponent Joe Biden with a series of wild and unproven accusations.In an unfocussed White House briefing, the president retailed baseless allegations, including that his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden had used “performance-enhancing drug” during appearances.Trump compared Biden’s performance across primary debates, including, according to the president, that he was stronger in some debates than others: “People say he was on performance-enhancing drugs. A lot of people have said that,” Trump claimed, without evidence. When challenged Trump told reporters to “look on the internet” to see who was saying it. .“I will be strongly demanding a drug test of Sleepy Joe Biden prior to, or after, the debate on Tuesday night,” Trump later wrote on Twitter.I will be strongly demanding a Drug Test of Sleepy Joe Biden prior to, or after, the Debate on Tuesday night. Naturally, I will agree to take one also. His Debate performances have been record setting UNEVEN, to put it mildly. Only drugs could have caused this discrepancy???— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 27, 2020
    The president also accused Biden’s son Hunter of corruption and speculated about non-existent Democrat policies of unattended, open borders. In a familiar refrain, he painted a dystopian vision of life under a Democratic administration.“They will destroy the American dream. They will destroy America … your private right to own a firearm will be totally eliminated, your guns will be confiscated, your ability to live by your religious faith will be devastated, they’ll abolish America’s borders and give healthcare to illegal aliens which will destroy our healthcare system.”Trump condemned criticism of his pick for the Supreme Court – the Catholic judge Amy Coney Barrett – as “fighting Catholicism”, and argued he was upholding his “presidential obligation” by nominating her to fill the seat left vacant by the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. He forecast Barrett’s nomination “is going to go quickly”.Trump revisited, too, his favoured tropes: the “lamestream media”; the failures of Obamacare; and allegations of widespread voter fraud.There were few facts to back up his assertions..The latest revelationfrom The New York Times that Trump paid just $750 in tax the year he won the presidency, and no tax in 10 of the last 15 years, because he lost more money than he made, was dismissed:“It’s fake news. Totally fake news. Made up,” Trump said.Trump has reportedly done little in the way of formal preparation for this week’s debate against Biden, though he said on Sunday that the former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his former 2016 primary rival, Chris Christie, had been drafted in to help him.“We had a little debate prep before we came here,” Trump said, while Christie and Giuliani watched from the press briefing room. “What I do is debate prep, every day.”Biden, by contrast, has spent months honing his debate lines of attack, and preparing to aggressively rebut Trump’s attacks on him.Biden’s campaign has been holding mock debate sessions featuring Bob Bauer, a senior Biden adviser and former White House general counsel, playing the role of Trump, a source with direct knowledge of the preparations told AP on condition of anonymity.First debates, historically, are by far the most impactful and Tuesday night in the swing state of Ohio could be critical in determining Trump’s chances of clawing back Biden’s stubbornly consistent lead in the polls.The 90-minute event, moderated by Fox News host Chris Wallace, is the first of three scheduled presidential debates.Vice President Mike Pence and California Senator Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, will debate in October. More

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    Will the New York Times taxes report sink Donald Trump?

    Donald Trump

    His returns examined at last, the president stands exposed as a tax avoider and serial debtor. It raises serious questions – but also, most likely, the passions of his fervent supporters
    Trump’s taxes: key findings from the New York Times report

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    ‘Fake news’: Trump denies tax claims from New York Times – video

    From the moment he rode down an escalator in the marble-clad, gold-trimmed Trump Tower to declare his candidacy for US president, Donald Trump was selling himself as a successful businessman who could run a successful economy.
    It was an image cultivated with voters for a decade on The Apprentice, the reality TV show in which Trump sat in judgment on aspiring entrepreneurs and told most: “You’re fired!”
    On Sunday the mask was finally torn off. According to a blockbuster New York Times investigation into his taxes, the self-proclaimed billionaire, a personification of the hedonism and extravagance of the 1980s, has been losing more money than he makes.
    These are the three key points of the Times report:
    Trump is not very good at business
    Trump is very good at avoiding taxes
    Trump may have serious conflicts of interests with foreign powers
    Will any of it have a major impact on his reelection chances? Up to a point.
    Trump declared a staggering $1.4bn in losses from his core businesses for 2008 and 2009. He appears to have personally guaranteed loans totalling $421m, most now due within four years. The Times reported: “Should he win re-election, his lenders could be placed in the unprecedented position of weighing whether to foreclose on a sitting president.”
    Joaquin Castro, a Democratic congressman from Texas, told MSNBC the Times report “reveals what many people have suspected, which is the larger point that Donald Trump is a fraud, that he’s not what he claims to be.
    “He claims to be a successful, deal-making businessman who built himself up from the ground and his tax records reveal that he’s actually the opposite. He’s basically a deadbeat who doesn’t pay much in taxes.”
    Indeed, Trump paid no federal income taxes in 11 of 18 years the Times examined. In 2016 and 2017, his tax bill was just $750 – far less than almost every US citizen.
    It pointed to a wider story about tax avoidance by the wealthy elite.
    Elizabeth Warren, a Democratic senator, tweeted: “He knows better than anyone that there’s one set of rules for the wealthy and giant corporations and another for hardworking Americans – and instead of using his power to fix it, he’s taken advantage of it at every turn.”
    It is tempting to see this as terminal for Trump in the November election against Joe Biden. But we have been here many times before. The same was said after the release of an Access Hollywood tape in October 2016, where Trump was heard bragging about sexual assault.
    It is also worth remembering what happened in the first presidential debate against Hillary Clinton. The Democratic candidate suggested that perhaps Trump was not releasing his tax returns because he had paid nothing in federal taxes.
    He interrupted and said: “That makes me smart.”
    There were howls of outrage and prophecies that Trump must be doomed. Yet perhaps that remark resonated with some voters who reckoned that given the chance, they too would delight in getting around the rules in order to save a few bucks.
    Some of the rampant enthusiasm at Trump’s rallies just possibly comes from people who see themselves in him.
    When Trump grumbles bitterly about Barack Obama winning the Nobel peace prize while his own nomination received scant coverage, it seems to strike a chord with anyone in the crowd who feels forgotten, neglected or passed over.
    When Trump presents the story of a self-perceived “outsider” who does not talk like the educated elite yet still made it rich and married a model, these supporters seem to embrace the idea of the blue-collar billionaire as one version of the American dream.
    There are also large chunks of Trump’s cult who pay little attention to the New York Times or Twitter as it is.
    Trump’s tax affairs have been reported before – regarding the family business, for one Pulitzer prize-winning example from the Times, from October 2018. But the new Times investigation raises further, even more damaging questions.
    In his first two years as president, Trump received $73m from foreign operations, including $3m from the Philippines, $2.3m from India and $1m from Turkey. In 2017 he paid $145,400 in taxes in India and $156,824 in the Philippines – but just $750 in the US.
    The president has been notoriously outspoken in his praise for the leaders of the Philippines, India and Turkey.
    Does Trump’s substantial income from abroad conflict with his responsibilities as president? Did he put his personal interest ahead of the American people? Did he break the law?
    The Times has promised more stories to come. They won’t shake the Trump faithful, but they might chip away at enough voters to make an important difference.

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    Donald Trump

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    Six key findings from the New York Times' Trump taxes bombshell

    Donald Trump

    The president pays little, faces hefty audit costs as well as loans coming due soon, and Ivanka is not in the clear
    Report: NYT publishes Trump tax returns

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    ‘Fake news’: Trump denies tax claims from New York Times – video

    The publication of Donald Trump’s tax records by the New York Times is one of the biggest bombshells to hit a 2020 election campaign already buffeted by a litany of scandals, a bitter fight over a supreme court nomination and a pandemic in which 7m Americans have been infected and more than 200,000 have died.
    The president’s taxes have long been the great white whale of political reporters in America as well as prosecutors keen to find evidence of wrongdoing. Democrats too were eager to seize on them as a potentially game-changing stick with which to beat the Trump campaign.
    The Times, with its shock report published on Sunday evening, appears to have won the race. Its publication of details from the documents could send shock waves through the campaign as the key first debate between Trump and challenger Joe Biden looms, in Ohio on Tuesday night.
    Here are its key findings:
    Trump pays little tax
    The Times reported that Trump paid no federal income taxes in 11 of 18 years the newspaper looked at. In 2017, after he became president, his tax bill was only $750. This is despite Trump often railing against taxes in America and ushering through a series of tax cuts that critics say mostly helps the rich and big business.
    The Times said of Trump’s immediate predecessors: “Barack Obama and George W Bush each regularly paid more than $100,000 a year.”
    A long audit – with potentially hefty costs
    Trump is involved in a decade-long audit with the Internal Revenue Service over a $72.9m tax refund he claimed, and received, after declaring huge losses. A ruling against him could cost him more than $100m, the Times reported.
    It added: “In 2011, the IRS began an audit reviewing the legitimacy of the refund. Almost a decade later, the case remains unresolved, for unknown reasons, and could ultimately end up in federal court, where it could become a matter of public record.”
    Ivanka helps reduce Trump’s tax burden
    The president’s oldest daughter, while working as an employee of the Trump Organization, appears to have received “consulting fees” that helped reduce the family’s tax bill, the Times said. Such a revelation might further tarnish the reputation of Ivanka, a senior White House adviser married to another, Jared Kushner, who often tries to distance herself from some of the biggest scandals of her father’s administration. She is widely believed to harbor political ambitions of her own after Trump leaves office.
    The Times reported: “Trump’s private records show that his company once paid $747,622 in fees to an unnamed consultant for hotel projects in Hawaii and Vancouver, British Columbia. Ivanka Trump’s public disclosure forms – which she filed when joining the White House staff in 2017 – show that she had received an identical amount through a consulting company she co-owned.”
    Trump businesses lose money
    The Times was brutal in its assessment of Trump’s businesses, about which he often boasts and on the back of which he sought to promote a carefully curated image as a master businessman. “Trump’s core enterprises – from his constellation of golf courses to his conservative-magnet hotel in Washington – report losing millions, if not tens of millions, of dollars year after year,” the newspaper said.
    It detailed how since 2000, Trump has reported losing more than $315m at his golf courses, with much of that coming from Trump National Doral in Florida. His Washington hotel, which opened in 2016 and has been the subject of much speculation regarding federal ethics laws, has lost more than $55m.
    Trump has a big bill to pay
    The newspaper also reported that Trump is facing a major financial bill, as within the next four years, hundreds of millions of dollars in loans will come due. The paper said Trump is personally responsible for many of those obligations.
    The paper reported: “In the 1990s, Mr Trump nearly ruined himself by personally guaranteeing hundreds of millions of dollars in loans, and he has since said that he regretted doing so. But he has taken the same step again, his tax records show. He appears to be responsible for loans totaling $421m, most of which is coming due within four years.”
    In a blunt summary of the problem, the Times speculated: “Should he win re-election, his lenders could be placed in the unprecedented position of weighing whether to foreclose on a sitting president.”
    Trump businesses profit from his presidency
    The issue of whether Trump’s businesses benefit from his position in the White House has been one of the long-running themes of reporting on the Trump presidency. The global nature of the Trump Organization and its portfolio of hotels, resorts and other interests has left Trump open to speculation that lobbyists, business leaders and foreign powers could spend money in them to try and peddle influence in the US.
    The Times report on his tax returns is clear that Trump’s businesses have indeed benefited from his political career.
    “Since he became a leading presidential candidate, he has received large amounts of money from lobbyists, politicians and foreign officials who pay to stay at his properties or join his clubs,” the newspaper reported, before detailing monies paid at his Mar-a-Largo resort in Florida, his Washington hotel and other locations.

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    Trump deserves four more years, says ex-counsel who called him 'King Kong'

    Don McGahn, the former White House counsel credited as an architect of Donald Trump’s makeover of the federal judiciary, has defended Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the supreme court, declaring the conservative judge he vetted was “the right person at the right time”.Perhaps more surprisingly, in a rare public appearance on Sunday McGahn also laid out why he believed Trump deserves four more years in power, despite having incurred the wrath of his former boss who blamed him for failing to protect him from the Mueller inquiry, and reportedly having compared an angry Trump to King Kong.“He promised justices in the mold of Antonin Scalia, a great justice,” McGahn told CBS’ Face the Nation. “[Barrett] clerked for Scalia, became a protege of his and I think she’s a fantastic judge. There’s no reason why the Senate shouldn’t confirm her.”McGahn resigned in October 2018, amid the special counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiry into Russian influence on the Trump administration, with which McGahn cooperated extensively as a witness.The Mueller report confirmed that McGahn refused orders from the president to have the special counsel fired.Trump called the allegation “fake news” but tweeted he was “never a big fan” of McGahn. Nonetheless, as White House counsel McGahn masterminded the ascension not only of two supreme court judges, Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch, but also hundreds of conservatives to the federal bench.McGahn has never spoken publicly about his links with the special counsel and Trump’s orders to fire Mueller, having resisted a congressional subpoena for months before a federal appeals court ruled he was not compelled to testify.McGahn was however quoted by Michael Schmidt, a Pulitzer prize-winning New York Times journalist, in his recent book Donald Trump v the United States: Inside the Struggle to Stop a President. Schmidt said McGahn insisted his cooperation with Mueller “damaged the office of the president”, not the president himself.On Sunday, Schmidt tweeted his surprise that a man who secretly insulted a president whom he said uttered “some crazy shit” would now break his silence to express public support.“Despite calling Trump ‘King Kong’ behind [his] back for unnecessary destruction and having to serve as chief witness against him in Mueller investigation, McGahn believes so much in mission of remaking federal judiciary that he says Trump deserves four more years,” Schmidt wrote.McGahn told CBS he thought Trump had earned the right to a second term.“He had the economy going wonderfully [before the coronavirus pandemic hit], he made a number of promises on the campaign trail that he kept,” he said.“One is his judicial selection, which he’s done. He’s set a record number of judges on there, on the circuit courts, and this really matters.” More