US elections 2020

Subterms

    More stories

    • 200 Shares199 Views

      in US Politics

      Welcome to your new Politics Minute. Are you ready for the messiest election in US history?

      by

      Hello and welcome to the US Politics Minute. The last Politics Minute was at the end of the 2018 midterms, and now we’re back for the 2020 election cycle. And this time, we’re doing things a little differently. Because as you know, this year is truly unlike any other in American history.We’re getting a new nameNext week the US Politics Minute will become the Fight to Vote. It will still contain all the latest news on the election, but through the lens of election integrity, voting rights and threats to the democratic process in America.What can you expect?If you joined us two years ago, you know we aim to go beyond the politics horse race. That’s more important than ever. Each week we’ll tell you about the powerful yet often hidden forces trying to keep Americans from casting their vote – whether it’s spreading misinformation, intimidating poll watchers, election security breaches or kneecapping the US Postal Service.Why is this election different?The pandemic is threatening in-person voting and leading polling stations to shut down.
      Donald Trump is waging a battle against mail-in ballots, widely considered a safe, non-partisan alternative
      The Republican party has consistently voted to keep election offices, and the post office, underfunded.
      Without further ado …We are 47 days away from what could be the biggest ballot brawl in US historyIf you remember the 2000 “hanging chad” debacle between Bush and Gore as well as I do, you know election results can mean an ugly battle. Chances are, this year will be much, much worseAs Sam Levine reports, Trump has been undermining the integrity of the election for months, with false claims that Democrats will try to steal the vote through mail-in-ballots.
      Trump’s campaign has brought lawsuits around the country to block voting practices such as allowing third parties from collecting ballots, counting ballots that arrive after election day, automatically mailing pre-filled ballot applications to voters and using ballot drop boxes
      Reminder: none of these practices are usually harmful, fraudulent or partisan.
      In response, Joe Biden has wrangled thousands of lawyers, including legal heavyweights such as Eric Holder and Bob Bauer, who served in both Obama campaigns, and Donald Verilli, former solicitor general. What will they do? The lawyers are ready to fight for every possible vote, which could be lost as a result of delayed counts, postal service issues or technicalities such as mismatching signatures.Meanwhile, some states are facing huge threats to their voting integrityFlorida is still reeling from a devastating blow to the voting rights of more than one million people. Two years ago, a majority of voters supported a measure to restore voting rights to people with past felony convictions. But last week, the supreme court ruled that Republican legislatures could impose further restrictions, forcing that same population to pay fines and fees before regaining the right to vote. Critics say this is an illegal poll tax.
      Meanwhile, in Kentucky, a Covid-19 case shut down an election office, leading to vote-by-mail delays. While it’s still several weeks ahead of the election, the case highlights how the process of counting ballots this year hinges on a lot of different, delicate factors.
      Does this all have you riled up? Good news, there’s something you can doThis year, many elderly poll workers have dropped out due to valid fears of Covid-19. Election officials are asking young people, who are largely at lower risk of the virus, to step up. Many organizations are also providing masks, gloves and other safety equipment to work the polls, and some places offer pay.You can sign up to be a poll worker here or here.Before you go, here’s something for the roadColton Hess and the team at Tok the Vote have been making these fun-ish videos about the election. Check them out here. More

    • 138 Shares189 Views

      in Elections

      Angry Tory MPs reject Joe Biden's comments on UK-EU Brexit talks

      by

      Conservative MPs have reacted angrily to an intervention by Joe Biden, the US Democratic presidential candidate, in the UK Brexit talks, accusing him of ignorance of the Northern Ireland peace process.In a tweet on Wednesday, Biden warned the UK there would be no US-UK free trade agreement if the Brexit talks ended with the Good Friday agreement being undermined. He tweeted: “We can’t allow the Good Friday agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit.“Any trade deal between the US and UK must be contingent upon respect for the agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. Period.”His intervention was welcomed by Richard Neal, the chairman of Congress’s ways and means committee.The backlash was led by the former cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith, who told the Times: “We don’t need lectures on the Northern Ireland peace deal from Mr Biden. If I were him I would worry more about the need for a peace deal in the US to stop the killing and rioting before lecturing other sovereign nations.”Donald Trump has made law and order a key theme of his re-election campaign after months of unrest triggered by the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May.David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, said: “Perhaps Mr Biden should talk to the EU since the only threat of an invisible border in Ireland would be if they insisted on levying tariffs.”Biden spoke out after the UK foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, met the House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, in Washington in a bid to reassure her that the British government was not seeking a hard border on the island of Ireland via measures in its internal market bill, a move that is seen by the US pro-Irish lobby as potentially fatal to the peace process.Q&AWhat is the UK internal market bill?ShowThe internal market bill aims to enforce compatible rules and regulations regarding trade in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.Some rules, for example around food safety or air quality,  which were formerly set by EU agreements, will now be controlled by the devolved administrations or Westminster. The internal market bill insists that devolved administrations  have to accept goods and services from all the nations of the UK – even if their standards differ locally.This, says the government, is in part to ensure international traders have access to the UK as a whole, confident that standards and rules are consistent.The Scottish government has criticised it as a Westminster “power grab”, and the Welsh government has expressed fears it will lead to a race to the bottom. If one of the countries that makes up the UK lowers their standards, over the importation of chlorinated chicken, for example, the other three nations will have to accept chlorinated chicken too.It has become even more controversial because one of its main aims is to empower ministers to pass regulations even if they are contrary to the withdrawal agreement reached with the EU under the Northern Ireland protocol.The text does not disguise its intention, stating that powers contained in the bill “have effect notwithstanding any relevant international or domestic law with which they may be incompatible or inconsistent”.Martin Belam and Owen BowcottRaab has argued that the measures in the UK internal market bill are proportionate, precautionary and necessary due to the EU’s politicising of the stuttering talks on a trade deal between the UK and the EU.However, the EU hit back on Thursday, saying an agreement on a trade and security deal remained conditional on the government pulling the contentious clauses in the internal market bill.The European commission’s vice-president for the economy, Valdis Dombrovskis, said: “If the UK does not comply with the exit agreement, there will no longer be a basis for a free trade agreement between the EU and the UK. The UK government must correct this before we continue to negotiate our political and economic relations.”The dispute between Biden and Downing Street poses a broader threat to UK interests if Biden, a pro-EU and pro-Ireland politician, decides to turn against Boris Johnson, who has made a virtue of his close relations with the Trump administration.The former UK trade minister Conor Burns tweeted: “Hey JoeBiden would you like to discuss the Good Friday agreement? It is also called the Belfast agreement so it doesn’t offend both traditions. Did you actually know that? I was born in NI and I’m a Catholic and a Unionist. Here if you need help.”The Conservative MP for Beaconsfield, Joy Morrissey, replied that “Biden is shamelessly pandering to the American Irish vote while refusing to engage with the UK government or UK diplomatic channels. Nice.”She later deleted her tweet, but added: “Clearly it’s all about the Irish American vote.”Burns added: “The error those of us who supported Brexit was to assume the EU would behave rationally in seeking a free trade agreement with a large trading partner like the UK..”Alexander Stafford, the Conservative MP for Rother Valley, tweeted: “Is this the same JoeBiden who once described Britain’s position in Northern Ireland as ‘absolutely outrageous’. And who hit the headlines in the 1980s for his stand against the deportation of IRA suspects from the US to Britain?”John Redwood, a leading Brexiter, said: “Trade deals are nice to have but not essential. We did not have a trade deal with the US when we were in the EU. Getting back full control of our laws, our money and our borders is essential.”Theresa May’s former chief of staff Nick Timothy rejected the frenzy, dismissing “the sudden discovery that Democrats don’t like Brexit and prefer the Irish”.Other Tory MPs including Stewart Jackson tweeted articles claiming that two of the representatives criticising the UK over the Good Friday agreement were overt IRA sympathisers, and a third was a supporter of Martin McGuinness, the now deceased former deputy first minister for Northern Ireland.The shadow foreign secretary, Lisa Nandy, said: “This shows the scale of the damage the government have done to Britain’s standing in the world. They’ve lost trust and undermined cooperation at the moment we most need it – and all to tear up an agreement they negotiated. Reckless, incompetent and utterly self-defeating.”Daniel Mulhall, the Irish ambassador to the US, has been working the corridors in Washington for the past fortnight, lobbying to lessen the threat the Irish perceive to the Good Friday agreement posed by the British proposals. He has been tweeting his gratitude to those representatives issuing support for the Good Friday agreement.No free trade deal between the UK and the US can be agreed unless it is supported by two-thirds of Congress.In a sign of Trump administration concern about the row, Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s former acting chief of staff, will shortly make his first trip to the the UK in his new role as the US special envoy for Northern Ireland.The Foreign Office, criticised by some for failing to anticipate the likely US backlash, will argue Raab’s visit to Washington may have drawn a predictable reaction from some corners, but was necessary to reassure and counter Irish propaganda.But UK diplomats will be anxious that the UK is not seen to adopt a partisan stance in the US elections, especially since Biden currently holds a fragile poll lead. More

    • 150 Shares159 Views

      in US Politics

      Republican memo warns US Senate ‘at risk’ of falling into Democratic control

      by

      A memo by Senate Republicans’ campaign arm has admitted that control of the upper chamber is “at risk” and that Democrats could win the Senate in November’s elections.The September 2020 political update from the National Republican Senatorial Committee summarizes the state of the race of 10 states with Senate races around the country and how the outcome of each could factor into whether Republicans or Democrats control the chamber in January.The memo, obtained by the Guardian, has been circulating among political operatives, donors and interested parties. It comes just shy of 50 days before the November 2020 elections.“The next few weeks will define the future of our country for generations to come,” the NRSC memo reads.Memos like these are often shaped like dispassionate updates but in actuality they are often used to convince interested parties that races slipping out of reach are still in play. They are also often used to juice donations to lagging candidates and counter trending narratives.Democrats need to pick up three or four seats to take control of the Senate. The fact that the NRSC memo categorizes seven Senate races as ones that simply can’t be lost or deserve serious attention suggests that it’s possible, but not certain that Democrats can take control of the Senate.“Make no mistake: the Senate Majority is at risk. Beyond the four battleground states of Colorado, North Carolina, Arizona and Maine, Democrats are going on offense in historically red states like Montana, Iowa and Georgia,” the memo continues. “They’re even eyeing states like South Carolina, where [Democrat] Jaime Harrison just reported raising a staggering $10.6m in August alone.”The memo goes on to list four states under its “firewall” rubric: Iowa, Montana, Georgia and Kansas. Those states generally trend red but Democrats have staked their hopes on candidates with track records of appealing to both Republicans and Democrats or can rally key voting blocs.All four of those states, though, are usually more fertile ground for Republicans. Georgia, in particular, has been a state Democrats have hoped to flip for the last few presidential cycles.Three states fall under the memo’s “battleground” rubric and they have all been trending toward Democrats in the past few cycles. The Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly, in particular, has consistently maintained a low double-digit or high single-digit lead over the incumbent Republican senator Martha McSally.The memo also warns that “North Carolina will be a knife fight in a phone booth until the end …”Still, the memo urges Republicans to take solace that despite the “defensive map” all is not lost. Republicans are highly likely to flip at least one Senate seat: Alabama.Notably, two major Senate races are not on this list; Kentucky and Texas. For years Democrats have vainly promised that one day Texas would flip in a statewide race. But its leaning remains toward Republicans. In Kentucky, the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, is up for re-election. That race’s omission from the memo suggests that the Senate leader’s re-election is not a pressing concern for Republicans. More

    • 113 Shares199 Views

      in Elections

      Biden assembles army of attorneys for post-election legal fight

      by

      Joe Biden’s presidential campaign says it is amassing an unprecedented army of attorneys for an expected legal brawl over whether ballots will count in the weeks after the election. The effort will involve several other top Democratic voting rights and election law attorneys as well as Eric Holder, the former attorney general.Americans are unlikely to know the winner of the presidential election on election night, in large part because of an expected surge in mail-in votes amid the coronavirus . Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – key swing states – all prohibit election officials from beginning to process mail-in votes until election day, meaning there will be a wait until the final results are tallied.This wouldn’t be the first time America saw a protracted legal battle after election day. During the 2000 presidential elections, Americans became fixated on “hanging chads” and whether punch-card ballots were sufficiently punctured to count.The chads are long gone, but this year the Biden and Trump campaigns are expected to aggressively contest technicalities states use to verify ballots – issues such as postmarks (some states require ballots to be postmarked by election day to count, but the markings can be illegible or missing) and whether a voter’s signature matches the one on file with election officials.For months, Trump has been sowing doubt about the legitimacy of the election, falsely saying it will be rigged and stolen. Election experts are deeply worried about the chaos from a scenario in which Trump leads in-person voting on election night, claims victory, only to see his lead evaporate as more mail-in votes are counted. Election law experts are already warning that the 19th-century law that would guide how a disputed electoral college vote is decided is incredibly vague, and could lead to chaos as well as further high-stakes legal fighting in the courts.“If it’s close and the courts get drawn in on potentially decisive issues, Bush v Gore will look like a walk in the park compared to what [this] would be like,” said Richard Pildes, a professor at NYU Law School who studies election law. “Social media and cable television will inflame with sinister spin any problems in the process, no matter how legitimate or normal those problems might be; many on both sides are primed already to believe the election is being stolen if their candidate loses.”The Biden campaign says its massive voter protection effort, which it described as the biggest in modern campaign history, will be led by Dana Remus, the campaign’s general counsel, and Bob Bauer, who served as general counsel on both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. The effort has thousands of lawyers, the campaign said, including several working in a special litigation unit under Donald Verrilli Jr and Walter Dellinger, two former solicitor-generals of the United States. Holder will serve as a liaison between the campaign and voting rights stakeholders.“We can and will be able to hold a free and fair election this November, and we’re putting in place an unprecedented voter protection effort with thousands of lawyers and volunteers around the country to ensure that voting goes smoothly,” Remus said in a statement. The details of the Biden campaign’s post-election operation were first reported by the New York Times.The program will aggressively respond to reports of voter suppression and have strong programs for countering both misinformation and disinformation. It will also work closely with the law firm Perkins Coie, led by Marc Elias, a top Democratic voting rights attorney, who has led a blitz of lawsuits around the country challenging voting issues like extending ballot receipt deadlines, requiring election officials to prepay postage, allowing third parties to collect mail-in ballots and requiring officials to give voters a chance to cure any defect with their mail in ballot before it gets rejected.In a close election, the initial round of litigation would likely focus on the unique procedures voters have to go through to ensure their ballots are counted, Pildes said. Suits could also focus on discrepancies among different counties in a state on how ballots were counted. A worse case scenario, he added, would be if states did not resolve election disputes by the time the electoral college meets in December and state legislatures and parties are divided about which slates of electors to use.“The courts have come to be seen in much more partisan terms. I am concerned if we got to that point that half the country would not accept the outcome as legitimate,” Pildes said.The Trump campaign did not provide details on its plans for after election day, but pointed to a list of voting cases it is already involved in. The Republican National Committee has pledged to spend $20m on voting rights suits. The Trump campaign also has active lawsuits around the country to block a range of voting practices, including allowing third parties from collecting ballots and stopping election officials from counting ballots that arrive after election day, and from using ballot dropboxes, among other issues. More

    • 138 Shares99 Views

      in US Politics

      US election poll tracker: who is leading in the swing states?

      by

      US elections 2020

      As the presidential campaign heats up, the Guardian is tracking the latest polling in eight states that could decide the election

      Wed 16 Sep 2020 07.00 EDT

      Last modified on Wed 16 Sep 2020 12.58 EDT

      Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election.
      But that doesn’t guarantee the Democratic candidate victory. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign. She ended up losing in the electoral college.
      Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victor regardless of the margin of victory, a handful swing states will probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners.
      Each day, the Guardian’s poll tracker takes a rolling 14-day average of the polls in eight swing states.
      In order to track how the race is developing in the areas that could decide the election, six of the eight states we focused on were those that flipped to Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2012. Arizona and North Carolina were also added due to what they might tell us about a shifting electoral landscape – they could emerge as vital new swing states this year.
      We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this. Additionally, they may be over-counting Democratic support (more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out).
      We present the latest polls with those caveats to be borne in mind.

      The national polls
      The latest polling average puts Joe Biden ahead of Trump nationally.
      While the national poll tracker is a poor indicator of how the crucial swing states will sway the election, a strong polling lead across the country is a good indicator of how the race will develop.

      Each day, the Guardian’s national poll tracker takes a 14-day average of national voting intention polls.

      On Tuesday 3 November 2020, Americans will vote for their next president, with a choice between Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent, or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

      Methodology
      The Guardian poll tracker tracks the latest polls in eight crucial swing states. For Biden to claim the White House, he needs to reclaim some of these swing states.
      The Guardian is collating polls in each of these states, as well as another set of national polls. Any polls deemed unreliable – for example, because they have small sample sizes – are excluded.
      Our polling average is a 14-day rolling average: on any day, we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results.
      If any company has conducted multiple polls in the last 14 days, we average out their polling results in order to give them just one entry. After this standardization process, we then take a mean average of these daily entries in order to present the polling average. More