US elections 2020

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      in US Politics

      US election poll tracker: who is leading in the swing states?

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      US elections 2020

      As the presidential campaign heats up, the Guardian is tracking the latest polling in eight states that could decide the election

      Wed 16 Sep 2020 07.00 EDT

      Last modified on Wed 16 Sep 2020 12.58 EDT

      Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election.
      But that doesn’t guarantee the Democratic candidate victory. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign. She ended up losing in the electoral college.
      Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victor regardless of the margin of victory, a handful swing states will probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners.
      Each day, the Guardian’s poll tracker takes a rolling 14-day average of the polls in eight swing states.
      In order to track how the race is developing in the areas that could decide the election, six of the eight states we focused on were those that flipped to Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2012. Arizona and North Carolina were also added due to what they might tell us about a shifting electoral landscape – they could emerge as vital new swing states this year.
      We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this. Additionally, they may be over-counting Democratic support (more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out).
      We present the latest polls with those caveats to be borne in mind.

      The national polls
      The latest polling average puts Joe Biden ahead of Trump nationally.
      While the national poll tracker is a poor indicator of how the crucial swing states will sway the election, a strong polling lead across the country is a good indicator of how the race will develop.

      Each day, the Guardian’s national poll tracker takes a 14-day average of national voting intention polls.

      On Tuesday 3 November 2020, Americans will vote for their next president, with a choice between Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent, or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

      Methodology
      The Guardian poll tracker tracks the latest polls in eight crucial swing states. For Biden to claim the White House, he needs to reclaim some of these swing states.
      The Guardian is collating polls in each of these states, as well as another set of national polls. Any polls deemed unreliable – for example, because they have small sample sizes – are excluded.
      Our polling average is a 14-day rolling average: on any day, we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results.
      If any company has conducted multiple polls in the last 14 days, we average out their polling results in order to give them just one entry. After this standardization process, we then take a mean average of these daily entries in order to present the polling average. More

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      in US Politics

      'Don't take Black voters for granted': Milwaukee leaders and activists warn Democrats

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      Black voting power

      Milwaukee

      The pandemic forced the Democratic convention to go virtual, but some feel the party abandons the Black communities that get them elected

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      12:46

      Black voting power: the fight for change in Milwaukee, one of America’s most segregated cities

      As protesters outside Wauwatosa’s city hall shouted “wake up, wake up”, to energize the crowd, activist Charley Frazier remarked how just miles away, the Democratic national convention (DNC) had kicked off on what was The People’s Revolution’s 81st night of demonstrations. The coalition of organizers are made up of young activists challenging the current political system and trying to force systemic change.
      “This is the Milwaukee they don’t want you to see,” she said. “[It’s] very segregated. You’re not even welcome out [in the suburbs], and when you do travel out there, you’re targeted.”
      More than 50,000 visitors were expected to descend on Brew City – as the largest city in Wisconsin is known – for its convention, but when the pandemic forced Democrats to go virtual, the fallout hit like a shockwave for a host city already reeling from the brunt of Wisconsin’s coronavirus outbreak and the recession that followed.
      An anticipated $200m economic boom instead spiraled into a substantial loss. The pivot also proved to be the final straw for many of the city’s African American residents. The coronavirus shutdown worsened national crises that disproportionately devastated Black Americans across the country, exacerbating racial inequalities in Milwaukee.
      “There’s this old saying from the Black community that ‘when America catches a cold, the Black community catches pneumonia,’” said Reggie Jackson, a columnist with the Milwaukee Independent, and historian with the National Black Holocaust Museum located in the city. More

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      in Elections

      Black voting power: the fight for change in Milwaukee, one of America’s most segregated cities

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      Guardian US reporter Kenya Evelyn travels home to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, one of the most segregated cities in the country to find out what Joe Biden and the Democratic party can do to truly earn the votes of Black Americans.  
      Democrats dealt Milwaukee another economic blow by moving their national convention online, crushing Black residents already feeling the brunt of a national crisis. They’re fed up, calling out racial inequality and a party some say ignores their issues until it’s time to vote. From generations of moderate elders leaving their legacy, to their young, progressive peers taking to the streets, Black Milwaukeeans are using the power of their voices and votes to demand change

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      US elections 2020

      Black voting power

      Wisconsin

      Milwaukee

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