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      Biden wants to see proof he can’t win. The polls show a nail-bitingly close race

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      Despite reporting that Joe Biden might be becoming more receptive to calls for him to step aside, he has for weeks rejected calls from within his party to end his candidacy for the presidency. Nothing but an intervention from the “Lord Almighty” would keep him from being the Democratic nominee, he told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos. He was “1,000%” remaining in the race, “unless I get hit by a train”, he told Complex’s Chris “Speedy” Morman. Only a “medical condition” would push him out, he told BET’s Ed Gordon.But he also indicated during a high-stakes news conference last week that he might be persuaded to step aside if his team came to him and said: “There’s no way you can win.” However, the 81-year-old president quickly followed up: “No one is saying that. No poll says that.”Many Democrats have become increasingly convinced that the president is on track to lose re-election. Among them they share bleak polls indicating Biden’s continued presence on the ticket may also imperil the party’s chances of winning control of either chamber of Congress, while expressing alarm that the president has apparently not grasped the gravity of their predicament.When Trump formally accepted the Republican nomination in Milwaukee on Thursday, he had opened his largest national lead yet, according to a new CBS News poll.Publicly, Biden has declared the race against Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, a “toss up” while his campaign has presented what it says is a clear path to victory. The White House, meanwhile, has fiercely disputed numerous reports that Biden is considering dropping out of the race.Though top-line polling shows a relatively stable – and nail-bitingly close – contest for the White House, the data paints a worrying picture for the president and his party.Trump holds a narrow but consistent edge in almost every national poll since Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month, which compounded existing concerns about his fitness to serve another term. Internal Democratic polling reportedly contains even more calamitous predictions for the party.Many of the public polling results are within the margin of error and there is variability depending on whether the survey considers likely voters or registered voters and when third-party candidates are included. Few surveys have yet to assess the race since the assassination attempt on Trump while he was campaigning in Pennsylvania last weekend.Battleground state surveys also tend to show the former president pulling away by an even wider margin, unnerving Democrats who are deeply fearful of a Trump second term. Earlier this month, the Cook Political Report, an elections prognosticator moved three key swing states – Arizona, Georgia and Nevada – from “toss up” to “lean Republican”. In a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, Trump held an edge across seven swing states.Of deep concern to Democrats were a pair of New York Times/Siena College state polls that showed Biden trailing Trump in the must-win battleground of Pennsylvania and narrowly leading him in Virginia, a state the president carried by 10 percentage points in 2020.Deep polarization means there are only so many truly undecided voters whose choice will determine the outcome of the election – an estimated 6% of voters in six states. Many of them are so-called “double haters” meaning they strongly dislike both presidential candidates. The result is a dynamic in which huge political events – like Trump being convicted by a Manhattan jury of 34 felony counts or Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month, which precipitated calls for his withdrawal – have little impact on the overall trajectory of the race.A new survey appears to support that pattern. A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken after the assassination attempt against Trump found no major shift in voter sentiment. According to the poll, Trump led Biden by 2 percentage points among registered voters, which was within the margin of error.By other metrics, Trump is in a considerably more desirable position. While both candidates are deeply unpopular, voters believe they will be better off economically under a Trump presidency. They trust the former president more on key issues, including the handling of inflation, immigration and, to a lesser extent, matters of foreign policy, an area Biden counts among his strong suits. More voters trust Biden on abortion policy and express confidence in his ability to work with members of the opposing party, which Americans say they want from their elected officials.The CBS News poll, meanwhile, found that just 28% of voters think Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president. By contrast, nearly half of voters agreed that the 78-year-old former president had the mental acuity to serve as president. More Republicans than Democrats say they will definitely vote this year, it found, which tracks with polling that shows Trump voters are much more enthusiastic about their nominee than Biden voters are about theirs.According to a poll by the Pew Research Center, 63% of voters describe both Biden and Trump as embarrassing, while roughly a quarter said they consider Biden “mentally sharp” – down from 53% in 2021. The survey found Trump with a 4 percentage point lead over Biden nationally.As Biden publicly fights for his political survival, he has dismissed his detractors as “elites” and members of Washington DC’s “chattering class” who have long underestimated him. Yet a new survey by AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research this week found that among his own supporters, two-thirds of Democrats now say he should not be the nominee. More

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      Convicted criminals take Republican stage despite focus on ‘law and order’

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      The Republican party that promised in its 2024 policy platform to restore “law and order” as a “pillar” of “American civilisation” packed up and left Milwaukee on Friday after a convention featuring numerous felons.The most prominent was the keynote speaker: Donald Trump, the former president turned nominee who in May was convicted in New York on 34 criminal charges of falsifying business records arising from hush-money payments to an adult film star.Trump also awaits trial on at least 14 and as many as 54 other criminal charges, and in addition has been fined hundreds of millions of dollars in civil cases for business fraud and defamation arising from a rape claim a judge said was “substantially true”.But there was also Peter Navarro, once Trump’s trade adviser, who addressed the convention on Wednesday fresh out of a Florida jail where he served four months for criminal contempt of Congress.“I went to prison so you won’t have to,” declared Navarro – who was convicted for refusing to comply with subpoenas from the House January 6 committee – to a jubilant crowd that responded with a standing ovation.Another former Trump aide turned convicted criminal in attendance was Paul Manafort, Trump’s campaign manager in 2016. Three years later he was sentenced to seven and a half years in prison on charges including bank fraud, tax fraud, money laundering and witness tampering, arising from the investigation of Russian election interference and links between Trump and Moscow.In 2020 Trump pardoned Manafort, who later wrote a memoir called Political Prisoner. At the convention, Manafort was briefly linked with an organising role before backing off, though he was still in Milwaukee to tell Fox News: “I’ve done 10 conventions. This is the best.”Roger Stone, who like Manafort is a longtime operative convicted on charges arising from the Russia investigation, was also at the convention in Milwaukee.Stone was sentenced to more than three years in prison after being convicted of criminal charges including witness tampering and obstructing Congress. He never set foot in jail, as Trump commuted his sentence.Rod Blagojevich attended as well. In July 2011, the former Democratic governor of Illinois was convicted on 17 criminal charges, including bribery, fraud and extortion, arising from an attempt to sell Barack Obama’s US Senate seat.Blagojevich was jailed for 14 years. In 2020, Trump commuted his sentence. This week, Blagojevich told NBC: “I think President Trump is the most demonised political figure in American history, and I know something about being demonised.”Another former Trump aide jailed for criminal contempt of Congress over January 6 did not make it to the convention hall, but Steve Bannon was getting updates via phone from his daughter in Wisconsin to his federal prison in Connecticut.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“He’s doing good,” Maureen Bannon told Politico. “He’s able to see the news in there. Read. We can email him articles. So he’s still getting a sense of what’s going on while he’s a political prisoner.”The irony of “the party of law and order” being led by one criminal and welcoming other criminals was not lost on many observers.One of the defining elements of authoritarianism is selective application of the law,” wrote Will Saletan in the Bulwark, an anti-Trump conservative publication.“In fascist movements, ‘law and order’ is invoked against scapegoats and political enemies, while the leader and his allies are exempt from legal accountability.“This distinction has become central to Donald Trump’s Republican party.” More

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      Donald Trump’s run of good luck could end this weekend – if Joe Biden does the right thing | Jonathan Freedland

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      You can see why they think he’s God’s anointed one. You can understand why Republicans cheered when Donald Trump repeatedly claimed the divine as his number one supporter, declaring with certainty that he had God on his side. To the faithful gathered at the Republican national convention in Milwaukee on Thursday night, none of that would have sounded like exaggeration – and not only because their nominee for the US presidency had survived an assassin’s bullet. It’s also because Trump has been on a run of extraordinary good fortune – one that might be just about to end.Of course, it was that brush with death at a rally in Pennsylvania last weekend that the former and would-be future president had in mind when he spoke of “a providential moment”. The shooting, and Trump’s ability to shrug off injury, raising his fist in bloodied defiance, has prompted his most fervent believers to cast him as a living martyr to their cause. The Republican party had already transformed itself into a cult of personality. But to see delegates wearing bandages on their right ears as a mark of love for, and identification with, their leader is to realise that that cult has become messianic.Still, even the most godless Republican may have found themselves wondering if Trump does indeed have a friend upstairs. For three straight weeks, everything has gone his way.Trump’s hot streak began with the TV debate against Joe Biden at the end of June – a debate that, it’s worth remembering, would typically have taken place in the autumn had not the Biden team insisted it must happen sooner. That was a 90-minute disaster for the president who, when he wasn’t struggling to complete sentences, stared vacantly into space, looking every one of his 81 years.That triggered a panic among Democrats, three long weeks of internal agonising as elders and bigwigs sought to navigate between the pride, and stubbornness, of a president who they believe deserves respect for a consequential term in office, and a party ever-more convinced that he will not only lose the White House, but will take Democratic candidates for the House and Senate down with him. That process may reach its climax this weekend, but not before it has handed Trump a delicious contrast: Democrats divided and distracted, Republicans unified and focused.Meanwhile, the courts have been smiling on Trump, whether it’s six judges of the supreme court, three of whom were appointed by him, granting presidents near total immunity for their official acts, or a Trump-appointed judge throwing out what most agreed was the strongest of all the legal cases against him, relating to his alleged retention of classified documents.That’s allowed him to sit back and enjoy the show. He’s watched as, to take one example, Biden gave a decent performance at a post-Nato summit press conference, giving detailed answers on foreign policy – while all anyone remembers is that he introduced Volodymyr Zelenskiy as “President Putin” and referred to Kamala Harris as “Vice-President Trump”.View image in fullscreenBut it’s the assassination attempt and the TV debate that are the bookend events of these remarkable few weeks, reinforcing what was already Trump’s chosen frame for the campaign: strong v weak. As one senior Democrat put it to me: “The Republicans have a guy who bullets bounce off of. We have a guy who can’t handle a flight of stairs.” The polls are bleakness itself for Democrats, with Trump leading Biden not only in all the key swing states, but even in once solidly Democratic terrain – with Virginia and even, incredibly, New York now deemed “battleground” states. No wonder Republicans were talking this week of a November landslide.Then, just in case any part of the narrative was insufficiently vivid, while Trump was being hailed as a messiah in Milwaukee, Biden contracted Covid. Now he is isolated, in every possible sense.Except maybe it’s possible to be too lucky. Trump is so far ahead, his numbers so strong, that Democrats have stepped up their post-debate push to get Biden to withdraw from the race. Privately at first and then, when Biden refused to budge, publicly via well-placed leaks, congressional leaders, big league donors and arguably the party’s sharpest political brain, the former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have spelled it out for the president, telling him he cannot win. “It’s over,” one party veteran tells me. “He’ll be gone by Monday.”If that’s right, then Trump’s lucky streak will surely be at an end. His entire campaign has been predicated on Biden being his opponent. Facing someone else means three fundamentals of the race would be altered. First, media attention will shift away from him to the shiny object of a new Democratic nominee. Second, he, not his opponent, will be the oldest person in the race. And third, Trump should no longer have the “change” message – so potent in this age of anti-incumbency – all to himself.That last element depends on whom Democrats choose and how they do it. If Biden stands aside and there is a quick coronation of his deputy, Harris, then Trump will cast her as the status quo. There will be a cacophony of racist and misogynist dog whistles, along with a related effort to present her as lacking a democratic mandate and dangerously leftwing.But there is another way to do it. Even some of Harris’s backers favour a mini-primary, which could amount to a fortnight or so of TV debates before the 4,000 or so Democratic delegates cast their votes. Not enough, to be sure, but that would bestow some democratic legitimacy on the eventual winner and offer at least a glimpse of who flourishes and who wilts under national scrutiny. The ballot itself should happen before the party convention in Chicago on 19 August, so that that gathering can be a showcase rather than a floor fight.I know – we’re getting ahead of ourselves. But as Democrats head into a fateful weekend, they should know they have little to fear from what may lie ahead. A contest could demonstrate the party’s energy and vigour, its deep bench of new talent, drawing the contrast with the creepy cult it opposes. Given the number of Americans who have been saying for a year or more that they want a choice other than Trump v Biden, there is every chance the election could be upended, with the polls looking radically different almost straight away.And Trump showed again on Thursday night how eminently beatable he is. His speechwriters wanted him to adopt a kinder, gentler tone – a man chastened by his brush with death, bent on healing and national unity. He managed it for a while. But soon he was veering away from the teleprompter, with rambling diversions into all the old, dark greatest hits: “crazy” Pelosi, migrants as an “invasion” of killers and criminals, the election that was stolen from him.The stakes are too high, for the US and the world, to let Democrats cede the 2024 contest to Trump, which is what a continued Biden candidacy would do. The hope is that Biden himself reaches that conclusion in the next day or two, and performs what will be his last great act of public service. Because whatever the Republican faithful may say, this decision is not in the hands of the Almighty – it is in the hands of human beings who, whatever their fears and frailties, need to act and act now.

      Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist More

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      Trump speech mixes unity and hate as he caps off Republican convention

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      As Donald Trump recounted the terrifying moment when a would-be assassin attempted to kill him on Saturday, the adoring audience at the Republican national convention in Milwaukee hung on his every word. Trump then accepted the Republican presidential nomination for the third time with a momentary message of unity, calling on the country to come together in the wake of the violent attack.“As Americans, we are bound together by a single fate and a shared destiny,” Trump said on Thursday night. “We rise together or we fall apart. I am running to be president for all of America.”Then Trump, as he so often does, stepped on his own message. Often veering away from his prepared remarks displayed on a teleprompter, Trump peppered his speech with interjections about the former Democratic House speaker (“crazy Nancy Pelosi”) or a hated news program (“De-Face the Nation”).While promising to “make America great once again”, he painted a picture of an American hellscape under Joe Biden’s leadership, torn apart by “a devastating inflation crisis” and “a massive invasion on our southern border”. And even though past convention speakers largely avoided litigating the results of the 2020 presidential election, Trump couldn’t help himself, accusing Democrats of having “used Covid to cheat”.The speech reflected a pattern that played out again and again over the course of the week in Milwaukee, as Republicans tried to project a message of unity with decidedly mixed success. Trump’s newly minted running mate, the Ohio senator JD Vance, preached a message of economic opportunity for all as convention attendees waved signs reading: “Mass deportation now!” Nikki Haley emphasized the need for Republicans to build a big-tent party based on decency just before Ron DeSantis stepped up to sneer at Biden’s “Weekend at Bernie’s” presidency.The conflicting messages foreshadowed the weighty task that Republicans face looking ahead to November, even with an edge in the polls; they must reach out to independent voters, many of whom disapprove of both the major presidential candidates, without alienating the hard-right loyalists who elevated Trump to his third nomination.In an implicit acknowledgment of that dual task, many of Trump’s most controversial opinions received little air time over the first three days of the convention. Mentions of election denialism, pardons for January 6 insurrectionists and Trump’s criminal cases were few and far between – even as the nominee himself could not resist attacking the “fake documents case” and the “partisan witch-hunts”. They also avoided mentions of pressing issues like abortion access, the climate crisis and gun safety, all of which are sure to be a primary focus at the Democratic convention in Chicago next month.Instead, many speakers attempted to paint a softer picture of Trump. Family members, friends and former colleagues described Trump, who was recently convicted on charges related to paying hush money to his alleged mistress, as a devoted family man. They praised the former president, who infamously boasted about his tendency to “grab ‘em by the pussy,” as a champion of women in the workplace.The message was clear: forget what those awful Democrats have told you, the speakers said. This benevolent, innocent and powerful man is a paragon of good virtue who absolutely can – and should – be trusted with another four years in the White House, they argued.The argument relies on a certain amount of amnesia of Trump’s chaotic first term, which often saw the then president firing members of his cabinet by tweet or musing about buying Greenland. But it would seem that a sort of national forgetfulness has already started falling over Trump’s years in office; a growing number of Americans now say that he left the nation better off, even though his presidency ended when the country was still in the grips of the coronavirus pandemic.Somehow – after four criminal indictments, two impeachments and one failed assassination attempt – Trump is not only still standing but is now the favorite to win the presidential election in November.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe attendees of the Republican convention this week appeared optimistic and even relaxed, a mood that may reflect their confidence heading into the final stretch of election season. As “everyday American” speakers praised Trump’s policies on everything from the economy to foreign policy, convention-goers seemed secure in the knowledge that the man they view as a savior would soon return to the nation’s highest office.Democrats have spent recent months trying to remind voters of the chaos that defined Trump’s presidency, but that argument has been somewhat undermined by the drama now encircling Biden’s campaign. Since Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month, more than 20 Democratic members of Congress have called on him to withdraw from the presidential race, with the Montana senator Jon Tester joining their ranks just moments before Trump took the stage on Thursday.As Biden quarantines in his home state of Delaware after testing positive for Covid (again), it remains deeply unclear whether he will be the Democrat facing off against Trump in November. Those questions overshadowed much of the Republican convention this week, and they bolstered Republicans’ efforts to present themselves as the more unified and organized party.If Republicans can maintain that image through the next four months, they might see an overwhelming victory in November. But if the past week has taught Americans anything, it’s that much can change in just a short time. More

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      ‘Fight! Fight! Fight!’: Trump emerges as an American messiah with swagger

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      “Fight! Fight! Fight!”The crowd had thought he was dead, Donald Trump recalled on Thursday night, and he wanted to let them know he was OK. “So I raised my right arm, looked at the thousands and thousands of people that were breathlessly waiting and started shouting, ‘Fight! Fight! Fight!’”The sublime image of Trump at last Saturday’s rally, face bloodied, fist raised, with Secret Service agents and the Stars and Stripes completing the tableau, flashed up on giant TV screens. Delegates at the Republican national convention in Milwaukee responded as one.“Fight! Fight! Fight!” they chanted, punching their own fists in the air in unison. Trump had taken a bullet for them. Their fervour suggested they would be willing to take a bullet for him. A Maga army on the march. A frightening spectacle for American democracy.In that moment it was clear that Trump’s survival of an attempted assassination had turned him into a figure that transcends politics, an American messiah with swagger. His power over the crowd, summoning anger and sympathy and ecstasy with a flick of a switch, evoked dark chapters in Europe in the 20th century.Like demagogues of the past, Trump understands spectacle. His instinctive response to a bullet shaving his ear, sparing his life by a quarter of an inch, was a masterpiece of self-mythology. At the convention on Thursday, in an arena that normally hosts the Milwaukee Bucks basketball team, he delivered raw political entertainment.Big screens showed Trump doing his awkward, fist-pumping, flat-footed dance to the sound of Village People’s Y.M.C.A. To Democrats, comedians and much of the world, it is a preposterous sight. To the Trump faithful, it makes him human and lovable.His wife, Melania – rarely seen these days – walked out to the strains of Beethoven’s Symphony No 9 in D minor, joining Trump children Don Jr, Eric, Ivanka and Tiffany in the stand. Musician Kid Rock, wearing black hat, dark glasses and shiny cross, sang: “Say fight fight, say fight fight! Say Trump, say Trump!” The crowd repeated the lines in response.Then came Lee Greenwood singing God Bless the USA, in effect the Trump theme song. Again the crowd joined in. Bright lights began flashing on stage. A white panel slid upwards like a curtain for the big reveal. There stood Donald J Trump, 78, former US president and Man of the Ear, against the backdrop of five giant letters: “TRUMP.”It was camp and gaudy and kitsch and very Trumpy. Soon after, the entire stage set was transformed into a digital image of the White House – four years after Trump broke protocol by addressing the Republican convention from the actual White House. “USA! USA!” chanted a crowd that held “Make America great again!” and “Fire Joe Biden!” signs. Some shouted: “We love you!”Then, in a hushed arena, came Trump’s retelling of the attempted assassination and warning that he may never tell it again “because it’s too painful to tell”. He delivered it in a cadence that, as one former Barack Obama aide noted, was like a bedtime story for kids when the goal is to lull them to sleep.“I stand before you in this arena only by the grace of almighty God,” he said, wearing dark suit, red tie and ear bandage. “In watching the reports over the last several days, many people say it was a providential moment. Probably was.”Indeed, numerous convention speakers at the convention have suggested that Trump was saved by divine providence. Ben Carson, his former housing secretary, suggested that God “lowered a shield of protection” over Trump. Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House of Representatives, quoted Benjamin Franklin: “God governs in the affairs of men.” Trump’s son Eric offered: “By divine intervention and the angels above, you survived.”For nine years Trump had tapped into the great American trauma of race and made it about him. Now he has turned religion into a personality cult.He recounted: “Once my clenched fist went up, high into the air – you’ve all seen that – the crowd realised I was OK and roared with pride for our country, like no crowd I have ever heard before. Never heard anything like it.”This was the man who once inspired a crowd to storm the US Capitol in an attempted coup. Now the scene in Milwaukee recalled Eleanor Roosevelt’s account of her husband Franklin’s inauguration as US president in 1933: “The crowds were so tremendous. And you felt that they would do anything – if only someone would tell them what to do.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThere was more theatre from the greatest showman. Paying tribute to Corey Comperatore, who died at the Pennsylvania rally, Trump walked over to Comperatore’s fire jacket and helmet, which were hanging on a stand behind him. He leaned over and kissed the helmet and asked for a moment of silence in honour of the former fire chief.It was so far, so good for “New Trump”, the man who had supposedly been changed forever by a near-death experience. He would now be “contemplative” and “softer” and “unifying”, we were told. And he began promisingly enough, telling the convention: “I am running to be president for all America, not half of America because there is no victory in winning for half of America.”But it did not take long for the old unhinged demagogue to come roaring back. In a 90-minute speech cribbed from his rallies, he vowed to “drill baby drill” and “close those borders” on his first day in office. He baselessly accused Democrats of “cheating” in elections , denounced Washington DC as “a horrible killing field” and warned of a planet “teetering on edge of world war three”.Trump also spoke of a “massive invasion at our southern border” and claimed immigrants were flooding in from prisons, mental institutions and insane asylums. Cue his now familiar and dated Hollywood film reference: “The late great Hannibal Lecter. He’d love to have you for dinner.” Having promised to mention Joe Biden by name, he did so 40 minutes in with scathing criticism.David Axelrod, a former Obama strategist, told CNN: “This is the first good thing that’s happened to Democrats in the last three weeks. This really reminded everyone why Donald Trump is fundamentally unpopular outside this room.”The long, rambling speech was at odds with an otherwise disciplined convention that, while shocking by the conservative standards of Ronald Reagan or George W Bush, felt less raucous and extreme than the “Lock her up!” chants of 2016. The red meat came with a hint of pink and garnish of moderation.There were few references to “stop the steal” or January 6 insurrectionists being “hostages”. There was little boasting about the overturning of Roe v Wade, the constitutional right to abortion. There was no real effort to blame Democrats for the attempt on Trump’s life. Even the vendors were selling mostly pro-Trump products rather than anti-Biden gear.In short, it was a do-no-harm convention for a party feeling confident but cautious as Democrats implode over whether to ditch Biden. But Trump, of course, blew all that up with his grievances and lies. When the divine demagogue finally wrapped, his family joined him on stage as thousands of gold, red, white and blue balloons descended. A singer performed Nessun dorma from Giacomo Puccini’s opera Turandot. None shall sleep indeed. More

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      Trump’s divisive speech and a rightwing mirror world: key takeaways from RNC day four

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      For all the claims from his supporters that surviving an assassination attempt had left Donald Trump a “changed” man, one more softened and spiritual, the Trump who accepted his party’s nomination on Thursday night was deeply familiar: same divisive rhetoric, same divisive policies.But the Republican crowd that surrounded Trump was certainly cheerful and energized. “I have never been to a more fun convention, or a convention with better vibes,” the ousted Fox News host Tucker Carlson told them, and his unscripted comments seemed to capture a real mood. Biden and the Democrats are foundering, Trump narrowly survived a terrifying attack, and Republicans appear to believe that Trump has already won the election.Here are five takeaways from the night:1. Trump talked about his assassination attempt for the first, and he said, final timeLike many his supporters, Trump said he believed he had been protected by God last weekend, but he also emphasized how moved he had been by the behavior of his supporters when he was shot. When faced with a hail of bullets, he said, most crowds would have panicked and tried to flee, but his did not.After the Secret Service members “pounced” on him to protect him from the gunfire, Trump said: “There was blood pouring everywhere, yet, in a certain way, I felt very safe, because I had God on my side, I felt that.”“I’m not supposed to be here tonight,” Trump said later, and when the crowd began to chant: “Yes you are! Yes you are!” he responded, “But I’m not – and I’ll tell you. I stand before you in this arena only by the grace of almighty God.”Trump also said he could see a look of sorrow on the faces of his supporters, who watched him go down and assumed that he had been shot in the head and was dead. When he stood up again and lifted his fist, he said, the crowd responded in a way that he had never heard before.“This massive crowd of tens of thousands of people stood by and didn’t move an inch,” Trump said. In fact, he said, many of them stood and started looking for the sniper and pointing at him. “Nobody ran, and by not stampeding, many lives were saved,” Trump said, saying he believed “the reason is that they knew I was in very serious trouble”.“For the rest of my life,” Trump said, “I will be grateful for the love shown by that giant audience of patriots that stood bravely on the fateful evening in Pennsylvania.”2. Trump may be ‘changed’ after the assassination attempt, but he didn’t sound that changed In the early minutes of his speech, Trump delivered some of the “unity” rhetoric that he told journalists he had planned.“The discord and division in our society must be healed,” Trump said. “I am running to be president for all of America, not half of America, because there is no victory in winning for half of America.”But soon after the somber beginning to his “unity” speech, Trump turned cheerful and chatty, first praising his friends, and then, soon enough, railing in a familiar way against “crazy Nancy Pelosi”, calling Biden one of America’s worst presidents, and then, to cheers, referring to Covid once again as the “China virus”.“I hope you will remember this in November and give us your vote. I am trying to buy your vote. I’ll be honest about that,” Trump later quipped to the voters of Wisconsin, talking about the $250m the Republican national convention is supposed to bring to the Wisconsin economy.“We’re never going to let it happen again. They used Covid to cheat,” Trump said, continuing to deny he lost the 2020 election to Biden.Though sources said Trump would simply not use Biden’s name in his speech, he did, saying: “If you took the 10 worst presidents in the history of the United States – think of it, the 10 worst – added them up, they will not have done the damage that Biden has done.”3. The Republican convention is a mirror world: ‘I am the one saving democracy,’ Trump saysThroughout their convention, Republicans have taken key Democratic lines of attack and claimed them for themselves. In the world of the Republican national convention, the Democrats are the ones who are undermining US democracy, not the party whose supporters stormed the US Capitol to overturn the results of the 2020 election. “Biden is acting like a dictator,” the North Dakota governor, Doug Burgum, said in a speech on Wednesday.Republican politicians kept reciting the names of women who have been raped or sexually assaulted by immigrants, while blaming the Democratic party’s immigration policies for putting them at risk. They didn’t talk about Trump being found liable of sexual abuse in a civil trial brought by the magazine writer E Jean Carroll, or the allegations of sexual misconduct he has faced from more than two dozen women. Biden and Harris were called criminals, rather than the candidate who has been convicted on 34 felony charges, and whose convention featured a Trump ally who had just been released from federal prison.“The Democrat party should immediately stop weaponizing the justice system and labelling their political opponents as an enemy of democracy, especially since that is not true,” Trump said on Thursday. “In fact, I am the one saving democracy for the  people of our country.”4. Trump again pledges to carry out the largest deportation in US history Before Trump spoke, other Republican politicians devoted large swathes of time during their convention to demonizing undocumented migrants, blaming them for a host of social ills, and advocating not just for a border wall but also “Mass deportations now.”Trump’s speech mirrored the convention as a whole, with a major focus on attacking migrants as criminals and rapists, and claiming, without evidence, that countries like El Salvador had seen decreases in crime because they were shipping all of their murders to the US. (Human rights organizations continue to speak out about the effects of mass arrests in El Salvador.)Trump again promised “the largest deportation operation in the history of our country” and pledged that his deportations would be “even larger than that of president Dwight D Eisenhower from many years ago. You know, he was a moderate but he believed very strongly in borders. He had the largest deportation operation we’ve ever had.”5. Trump promises ‘two things on day one’ … ‘Close our borders’ and ‘drill, baby, drill!’Trump also joined other Republicans throughout the week in touting the GOP as the party of fossil fuel, as Republicans repeatedly chanted: “Drill, baby, drill!”Climate change experts and activists have said that both Trump and his vice presidential pick, JD Vance, are likely to pursue a “methodical” climate crisis denial presidency that would include increasing production of fossil fuel, ignoring mainstream climate science and undermining or overturning rules to reduce emissions.One of the everyday Americans invited to speak at the convention earlier in the week was the petroleum engineer Sarah Phillips, who criticized Biden and the Green New Deal. “The hydrocarbons that are being extracted are a true gift,” Phillips said. “Our society and our standard of living could not exist without fossil fuels.”“These liberal senators shut down the Keystone Pipeline,” the Montana senator Steve Daines said earlier on Thursday. “An America First majority – we’re going to drill, baby, drill!” More

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      Trump calls for unity then returns to familiar attacks in lengthy speech

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      Donald Trump recounted the attempt on his life in dramatic detail as he formally accepted the Republican nomination for president on Thursday evening in Milwaukee in a speech that began with a call for unity and then turned into meandering attacks on his political rivals.“I’m not supposed to be here tonight,” Trump said to an electrified crowd at the Fiserv Forum. Speaking in a subdued, quiet tone, Trump called his survival a “providential moment” and said: “I stand before you in this arena only by the grace of almighty God.”“I am running to be president for all of America, not half of America, because there is no victory in winning for half of America,” he said at the start of his speech, which lasted around 91 minutes. He was interrupted by chants of “Fight! Fight! Fight!” from the audience.Trump went on to kiss the helmet and embrace the uniform of Corey Comperatore, the firefighter who was killed as he shielded his family as Trump was shot at in Butler Township, Pennsylvania.But that tone ended shortly after.Trump went on to attack Democrats over the numerous criminal cases that he faces. “The Democrat party should immediately stop weaponizing the justice system and labeling their political opponents as an enemy of democracy, especially since that is not true,” he said.“If Democrats want to unify our country, they should drop these partisan witch-hunts.”Improvising and moving away from prepared remarks, he went on to label Nancy Pelosi “crazy”. And he falsely accused Democrats of cheating in the 2020 election – a topic that speakers during the previous week nearly avoided entirely as they looked towards the next election. “The election result we’ll never let that happen again. They used Covid to cheat.”At one point in his speech Trump declared: “I am the one saving democracy for the people of our country.” Trump and allies unsuccessfully sought to overturn legitimate election results in several swing states in 2020 and stop congressional efforts to certify the vote. He faces criminal charges both in Georgia and the federal system for those efforts.Trump promised to lower inflation and “end every single international crisis”, without mentioning anything specific about how he would do so other than drilling for oil and closing the border.“If you took the 10 worst presidents in the history of the United States, think of it. The 10 worst. Added them up, they will not have done the damage that Biden has done,” he said, pledging to only use the president’s name once in his speech.Much of his convention speech resembled the freewheeling stump speeches Trump has become known for. He pledged “the largest deportation operation in the history of our country” while reciting falsehoods about who was coming into the United States. Claiming that countries were emptying asylums to send people to the US, Trump veered into a bizarre segue about Hannibal Lecter, the cannibal villain from the film Silence of the Lambs.“Has anyone seen Silence of the Lambs, the late great Hannibal Lecter, he’d love to have you for dinner,” Trump says.He lied about crime levels – claiming crime was rising when it is actually falling.Mark Boldger, a Texas delegate, told the Guardian he thought Trump was off his usual rhetorical track. “He was all over the place,” said Boldger. “I think he might’ve put a few people to sleep tonight and I don’t like that. I don’t think he worked the crowd into the fever he normally does.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe shooting, Boldger speculated, “really shook him up”.The speech capped off a four-day coronation of his candidacy that showcased the complete control he has over the Republican party. Thursday evening, like the rest of the convention, was an event in which Trump and his campaign tried at every turn to project machismo.Trump entered the convention hall on Thursday to a thumping rendition of AC/DC’s Back in Black. He was preceded on the stage by the wrestler Hulk Hogan – whose real name is Terry Bollea – who tore open his shirt to reveal a Trump campaign shirt underneath. Dana White, the CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship, introduced Trump.Melania Trump, who has rarely been seen or heard from in public, received loud cheers as she entered the convention floor to classical musical. JD Vance, the Ohio senator who Trump tapped to be his running mate, watched the speech in a VIP box with his wife, Usha. Trump thanked several other people who spoke at the convention before acknowledging his new running mate.At the end of his speech, Trump returned to the teleprompter script, and to the shooting in Butler in which he nearly lost his life. “If the events of last Saturday make anything clear, it is that every single moment we have on earth is a gift from God,” he said.He ended on a central promise of Trumpism, pledging that it would be easy to improve America quickly.“No one will ever stop us,” he said. “Quite simply put, we will very quickly make America great again.”Jen O’Malley Dillon, the Biden campaign chair, said: “President Biden is running on a different vision. He’s running for an America where we defend democracy, not diminish it. Where we restore our rights and protect our freedoms, not take them away. One where we create opportunities for everyone, while making the super wealthy finally pay their fair share. That is the future President Biden believes in and is the future that millions of our fellow Americans believe in too. The stakes have never been higher.”Alice Herman contributed reporting More

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      In Dearborn, home of largest Arab American community, despair and apathy dominate

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      Abu Bilal sits quietly on a stool in Oriental Fashion, a clothing store he owns on Dearborn’s Warren Avenue, listening to the radio. It’s hard to ascertain whether his tone when talking about the war in Gaza is one of near-complete defeatism or seething anger.“Ninety people were killed today; hundreds were injured,” he says, referencing an Israeli airstrike that killed dozens of Palestinian civilians in Khan Younis on Saturday.“No one is talking about it; no one cares. I have one question: where is the humanity?”On a scorching Saturday afternoon in Dearborn, Michigan, the feeling of despairing resignation over the war and the role America’s political leaders are playing in enabling the suffering in the besieged territory is near-omnipresent – and so is a sense of apathy over the coming presidential election.Down Maple Street, a man getting a haircut at the Al-Rehab Barber Shop says in Arabic that regardless of who the president is or will be following November’s election, it’s not going to make any difference to him. The barber says that he didn’t vote in the 2020 presidential election and doesn’t plan to vote in November. Both refused to offer their names, saying they prefer not to be identified for their political views.As the death toll continues to mount in Gaza with little sign of a political solution forthcoming, the mood in America’s largest Arab American community in recent months and weeks has decidedly changed. While flags and protests against Israel’s assault on Gaza, which has now killed more than 38,000 people, drew fervent energy and anger to Dearborn’s streets when the city became a protest hub around the state’s presidential primary, the sense today seems one of resignation and anger at America’s political leadership.For Joe Biden, who won the key battleground state of Michigan in 2020 by just 154,000 votes, that could be deeply damaging come November.When the US president defeated Donald Trump en route to the White House in 2020, turnout in Dearborn was around 10% higher than the previous election four years earlier. Biden also won 10% more votes than the Democratic party’s previous presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, suggesting voters in Dearborn four years ago were energized.Today, that positivity is nowhere to be found. During the Democratic party’s primary in February, 6,432 Dearborn voters chose “uncommitted” in protest of Biden’s support for Israel’s war, out of a total of 100,000 Michiganders who did the same. A Pew Research Center survey from May found that both Biden and Trump were the least-liked pair of presidential candidates in at least three decades. Trump currently holds a narrow lead in the state according to polls.There is little sign that support among Arab Americans has rebounded since the peak of the uncommitted movement’s strength earlier this year. According to a poll conducted by the Arab American Institute in May, Biden has the support of less than 20% of Arab Americans – down from nearly 60% in 2020. The poll estimates he could lose 91,000 votes in Michigan alone.When members of Biden’s election campaign team visited Dearborn in January, they were met on one occasion by an empty room after Dearborn’s mayor, Abdullah Hammoud, and two other Arab American state representatives declined to meet with the team, rejecting a campaign meeting to discuss elections rather than a substantive discussion about the war.“If you’re planning on sending campaign officials to convince the Arab American community on why they should vote for your candidate, don’t do it on the same day you announce selling fighter jets to the tyrants murdering our family members,” Hammoud wrote on X at the time.On Friday, Biden held a campaign rally at a school a few miles north of Dearborn, but for the most part his campaign’s overtures to Arab Americans across the country have been rejected.“The whole community was aware [that the administration had sent campaign officials to meet with the community], and I think it says a lot, that he sees us as no more than votes and that it’s been normalized for our people back home to be killed,” says Jenin Yaseen, an artist whose family is from a village outside Nablus in the occupied West Bank.She says didn’t vote in 2020 and doesn’t plan to do so this year. “I don’t think that we see that there’s a distinguishment between Trump and Biden,” she says. She added that her position would not change should Biden step aside and Kamala Harris take his place at the top of the Democratic ticket. “Kamala Harris’ stance around Palestine is pretty much the same. She’s just as guilty as Joe Biden is.”She says anger among Dearborn’s Arab American communities has simmered for years.“Dearborn is made up of people from Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere that have been directly impacted by American imperialism,” she says. “There’s also this big sense of guilt being here.”But a victory for Trump could be devastating for Arab Americans with family in the Middle East.Under the previous Trump administration, raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcements (Ice) officers and deportation orders drove fear into the heart of the community. While Biden is on track to match the Trump administration’s number of deportation orders by focusing on border regions rather than the interior US, the president in February signed an order protecting around 6,000 Palestinians from deportation for 18 months.The proprietor at Nabil Hair Salon on Warren Avenue says he’d like to offer his views but was afraid it could affect him and his business.“We’re not looking for any attention,” he says, asking not to be identified by name. “We don’t know what could happen if we talk politics.” More