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      Rightwing claim of ‘0% chance’ of fair US election previews effort to undo 2024 result

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      A major conservative thinktank previewed rightwing efforts to overturn the 2024 election on Thursday, with a top official saying there was a “0% chance of a free and fair election”.Mike Howell, executive director of the Oversight Project at the Heritage Foundation, made the comments at an event in Washington sharing the results of a hypothetical exercise mapping out several implausible scenarios that could take place after the election. The outlandish scenarios involved Barbara Streisand being kidnapped by Hamas, antifa-BLM protesters taking over a detention facility and the FBI arresting Donald Trump after winning the election.The effort was designed to muddy the waters over the threat to the 2024 election posed by Donald Trump, who has repeatedly refused to commit to accepting the election results and tried to overturn the 2020 vote. Instead, the Heritage Foundation, which is also behind the extreme Project 2025, wanted to suggest that it was Joe Biden who could try to overturn the result of the election, echoing the ex-president’s repeated claims that it is actually Biden who is the threat to democracy.“President Biden is very well-positioned to hold the White House by force in the case of an unfavorable electoral outcome,” the report summarizing the exercise says. “The lawlessness of the Biden administration – at the border, in staffing considerations, and in routine defiance of court rulings – makes clear that the current president and his administration not only possesses the means, but perhaps also the intent, to circumvent constitutional limits and disregard the will of the voters should they demand a new president.”Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, has said Biden will accept the election results. “There’s no place for putting yourself above your entire country,” she said earlier this year. “That is a commitment from the president.”But at the Heritage event, that reality was ignored.“I’m formally accusing the Biden administration of creating the conditions that most reasonable policymakers and officials cannot in good conscience certify an election,” Howell said.Howell’s comments are notable because Republican officials are increasingly putting pressure on the certification process in several states, an alarming development experts say could be a major part of an effort to overturn election results this fall. For example, Republican commissioners in Washoe county, the second most populous county in Nevada, recently refused to certify a primary without any evidence of wrongdoing. Republicans in Georgia are also seeking to give county election board members more discretion to slow down the certification of the election.The report identifies four main “threats” to the 2024 election. One is that the Department of Justice identifies enough civil and voting rights violations to interfere in the certification of election results. The second is that law enforcement officials will “arrest opponents of the regime” (Trump has actually pledged to prosecute his enemies). The third is that there will be organized violence to intimidate state and local election officials (officials throughout the county have reported being harassed by those who believe Trump won). The fourth is that the media will suppress information.The misleading document comes as the Heritage Foundation has come under scrutiny for Project 2025, a 900-plus page blueprint that lays out radical plans to reshape the US government if Trump wins.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionJames Singer, a spokesman for the Biden campaign, said the report was an obvious effort to support an attempt to steal the election.“The architects of Trump’s Project 2025, who less than a week ago threatened violence and still push lies about the 2020 election Donald Trump lost, are laying the groundwork to try and steal another election. This document is nothing more than an attempt to justify their efforts to suppress the vote, undermine the election, and ultimately another January 6,” he said in a statement. More

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      Wisconsin progressives take battle to Trump – but warn Biden must do more

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      Four years ago, progressives in the crucial battleground state of Wisconsin were energized about the presidential race, feeling ready and eager to elect Joe Biden and end four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership.This year, the nominees for president remain the same, but much has changed. Before Biden’s damaging debate performance, leaders of progressive groups were already combating disillusionment and disengagement among many of their supporters, who sharply criticized the president’s response to the war in Gaza. Now, with days left before Republicans arrive in Milwaukee to nominate Trump for the third time, the groups’ leaders are confronting a fractured Democratic party wrestling with the question of whether to replace their presumptive nominee.Despite the immense challenges ahead, progressive organizers are determined to convince voters of the dire stakes of this election and turn out a winning coalition in November. They believe Trump’s re-election poses an existential threat to American democracy, while recognizing that Biden needs to do a better job of showing voters how he will use his second term to improve their lives.Wisconsin progressives have planned counter-programming to the Republican convention, with a number of groups participating in a march on the convention scheduled for Monday. But they have also been working for months to prepare for all of the November elections, not limited to the presidential race.They have little margin for error. In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by just 0.6 points, or roughly 20,000 votes out of the 3.3m cast, and he appears to be in a much more perilous position today. An AARP poll conducted in the days after the debate showed Biden trailing Trump by six points in Wisconsin.“We’re in a very tough predicament,” said William Walter, executive director of the progressive group Our Wisconsin Revolution. “The progressive left recognizes that stopping Donald Trump at all costs is imperative. But we want the Democratic party to help us in in our goals because they are aligned.”Early warning signsWhen the state held its presidential primaries in April, prominent progressive leaders encouraged primary voters to cast a ballot for “uninstructed” as a means of protesting Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, an effort inspired by the similar Listen to Michigan campaign. Although Biden won the Wisconsin Democratic primary with 89% of the vote, nearly 50,000 voters – more than twice the president’s margin of victory in 2020 – voted uninstructed.The political arm of Voces de la Frontera, an immigrant and workers’ rights group, was among those that endorsed the uninstructed campaign. Christine Neumann-Ortiz, executive director of Voces de la Frontera, described the campaign as an effective mechanism to send a message to the White House.“We were simply a conduit to that message that people who were key to defeating Trump in 2020, this is how they’re feeling,” Neumann-Ortiz said. “They want to see something done.”The protest vote in Wisconsin – as well as other states like Michigan and Minnesota – was one of the early warning signs of Biden’s struggles to unite and energize his party. Those vulnerabilities have now taken center stage in the aftermath of the debate.“In 2020, with frankly the horrors of the Trump presidency still fresh in people’s minds, I think people were fired up,” said Emily Park, co-executive director of the climate advocacy group 350 Wisconsin Action. “Climate activism, racial justice activism, all sorts of progressive causes had been sort of newly reinvigorated. So I think that brought a huge sense of energy to the 2020 election. And this year, I think people are just not inspired.”Angela Lang, executive director of the Milwaukee-based group Black Leaders Organizing for Communities (Bloc), noted that many of voters’ top concerns remain unchanged since 2020. But regarding the cost of living, voters’ concerns have only intensified, as US prices have increased by roughly 20% since 2019. The rate of inflation has slowed significantly in recent months, as the 12-month consumer price index now stands at 3%, but many are not yet feeling the difference.“Things are expensive. People are still struggling despite the job numbers and things like that. They don’t see themselves reflected in those numbers,” Lang said. “When folks are often told this is the most important election of your lifetime over and over and over, and they’re not necessarily seeing the tangible changes in their lifetime, people start to get a little bit frustrated by that and start to wonder, ‘Do I continue to show up?’”That disillusionment could have ramifications far beyond the presidential race. Wisconsin is home to one of the most competitive Senate elections this year, as incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin fights to hold on to her seat, and the Republican representative Derrick Van Orden faces a competitive race in the third congressional district. Wisconsinites will also have the opportunity to elect state legislators with a new set of maps that give Democrats their first real opportunity in more than a decade to take control of a chamber.“If people are so disillusioned that they’re just not going to show up to the polls in November at all, then we lose our chance to make serious progress in our state legislature, which could mean critical things for the state of Wisconsin on all sorts of issues,” Park said. “It’s not just about the White House.”Democracy and bodily autonomy on the ballotDespite voters’ apparent lack of enthusiasm, their thoughts and fears about a second Trump term have grown more specific since 2020. As he has knocked on voters’ doors this year, Walter, who served as a delegate for Bernie Sanders in 2020, has heard more people express concern about the continuation of democracy if Trump wins the election.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHe pointed to recent comments from Kevin Roberts, president of the rightwing Heritage Foundation, to underscore the threat. Roberts told a radio host last week: “We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”Walter said: “They’re making it abundantly clear what their goals are for a second administration, and it’s terrifying. And a lot of people, I think, really are starting to recognize that.”Abortion access has also moved to the top of many voters’ priority lists. The race between Biden and Trump represents the first presidential election since Roe v Wade was overturned in 2022, and Democrats predict that Republicans will enact a national abortion ban if they have the opportunity.“That’s one thing that I hear quite often is, quite literally, democracy and bodily autonomy are on the ballot,” Walter said.Those high stakes have only increased the pressure on Biden since his poor debate performance, and progressive leaders in Wisconsin are conflicted about how to move forward. Some prominent progressive lawmakers, including representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar, have said Democrats need to stick with Biden and focus on beating Trump, but doubts linger.Progressive leaders in Wisconsin emphasized that Biden has notched some important legislative wins, including the bipartisan infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act, but they expressed varying opinions on whether the president should continue his campaign.“My feeling is that that conversation is only going to stop at the [Democratic] convention. And it is true that we do have primary elections, and people voted for Biden as the candidate,” Neumann-Ortiz said. “Ultimately, in this election, the conversation needs to be about, how can we build a strong, diverse, united front against the threat of a candidate that is promising dictatorship on day one?”Even as Democrats continue to squabble over Biden’s future, Wisconsin groups like Voces de la Frontera and Bloc remain focused on communicating the danger of Trump’s potential return to voters.“I think at the end of the day, our community, we know what’s at stake,” Lang said. “Folks end up coming around [in] September, October, and that’s usually when they start to get plugged in and engaged. I will caution, though, that if we’re still having the same questions and the same conversations around that time, I think it’s a little bit more of a red flag.”Walter warned that, if Biden chooses to continue on and loses to Trump in November, his defeat will become legacy-defining.“We won’t be able to talk about the Inflation Reduction Act. We won’t be able to talk about his massive labor wins,” Walter said.“Instead, the narrative in every history book will be on the last six months before the election – how we saw that he wasn’t as sharp as he may have been five years ago, that he didn’t have what it takes to beat Donald Trump. And because of that, we lost the American experiment.” More

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      Biden to speak at Nato summit in high-stakes press conference – live updates

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      Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Nato summit in Washington DC, where all eyes will be on Joe Biden this evening as he steps up to the lectern and answers questions from journalists in a critical test after his disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump a fortnight ago.Biden is scheduled to begin speaking at 6:30pm EST to close out the three-day Nato summit in his first solo news conference in eight months, amid growing calls for him to step aside his Democratic party’s presumptive nominee.The US president’s performance tonight will be closely watched by his aides and advisers, who have reportedly been discussing how to persuade him to leave the presidential race, as well as the Trump campaign who reportedly want him to stay.We’ll stream Biden’s press conference here and bring you more news coming out of the Nato summit.Earlier today, the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, was asked about his meeting with Joe Biden at the White House.Biden was “on good form” and went through serious issues at pace during their first bilateral talks, Starmer answered.The British prime minister said his personal view, having spent almost an hour in private talks with Biden and attended a dinner for Nato leaders at the White House, was that the US president was mentally agile.Asked in a round of broadcast interviews whether criticism of Biden was misguided, the prime minister said:
      Yes … my own personal view is he was on good form. I was very keen obviously to discuss Ukraine, but there were many other issues that we got through.
      Downing Street said Starmer had not raised the issue of Biden’s health or his future plans in their meeting, but reporters asked him about media speculation that Biden could have early dementia symptoms. Starmer said:
      No, we had a really good bilateral yesterday. We were billed for 45 minutes, we went on for the best part of an hour. We went through a huge number of issues at pace, he was actually on really good form.
      Joe Biden did not hear any concerns from world leaders during the Nato summit regarding his health or re-election campaign challenges, the White House said.The White House’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said leaders instead offered “a drumbeat of praise for the United States, but also for President Biden personally for what he’s done to strengthen Nato”, Associated Press reported.Biden was praised not just for his time as president but for his decades in politics, Sullivan said.Sullivan, who helped prepare Biden ahead of the disastrous debate performance, said he did not “have concerns” about the president’s health, adding:
      He said he had a bad night.
      Hello and welcome to our coverage of the Nato summit in Washington DC, where all eyes will be on Joe Biden this evening as he steps up to the lectern and answers questions from journalists in a critical test after his disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump a fortnight ago.Biden is scheduled to begin speaking at 6:30pm EST to close out the three-day Nato summit in his first solo news conference in eight months, amid growing calls for him to step aside his Democratic party’s presumptive nominee.The US president’s performance tonight will be closely watched by his aides and advisers, who have reportedly been discussing how to persuade him to leave the presidential race, as well as the Trump campaign who reportedly want him to stay.We’ll stream Biden’s press conference here and bring you more news coming out of the Nato summit. More

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      Biden’s position tenuous amid reports campaign secretly testing Harris’s popularity

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      Joe Biden’s position appeared shaky on Thursday, amid reports that his aides and advisers were discussing how to persuade him to leave the presidential race while his own campaign was secretly testing Kamala Harris’s popularity, suggesting it was preparing for that very scenario.With the US president scheduled to face journalists at a potentially pivotal news conference marking the end of Nato’s 75th anniversary summit, two separate New York Times reports suggested his efforts to keep his candidacy afloat were close to foundering.The Times reported on its website that his campaign’s analytics team was quietly testing the strength of Harris, the vice-president, among voters in a match-up against Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.Biden has consistently argued that he has the best chance of beating Trump, citing polling evidence.A separate report suggested that unnamed longtime aides and advisers to the president had become convinced in recent days that his campaign to beat Trump in the election was doomed and were trying to find ways of persuading him of their argument.The story was met by denial by the White House and the Biden campaign, which respectively called it “unequivocally not true” and “patently false”.But the picture of diminishing support for the president even within his own camp was further strengthened by an NBC report suggesting that three people involved in his re-election campaign had written off his chances.“He needs to drop out,” the network’s website quoted one Biden campaign official as saying. “He will never recover from this.”The glut of damaging stories followed a number of Democratic party members calling on him to step down and as senators from the party prepared to meet key members of Biden’s staff at the White House to air their concerns about his electability following last month’s disastrous debate performance with Trump.On Thursday afternoon, three more House Democrats called for Biden to withdraw, Greg Stanton of Arizona, Ed Case of Hawaii and Brad Schneider of Illinois.Schneider said in a statement: “I fear if he fails to make the right choice, our democracy will hang in the balance,” while Stanton posted a statement on Twitter/X effusively praising Biden’s record and his character but saying he should step aside as the nominee amid the need to save US democracy from the “existential threat” of Donald Trump.The Nato-related press conference set for Thursday evening was seen as crucial as a test to compare Biden’s performance with the dire one he displayed in the debate, followed by a less than convincing performance in a TV interview with ABC the following week.The event is the kind of unscripted set piece that Biden’s staff stand accused of shielding him from, and any repeat of the calamitous debate display could turn the steady trickle of public calls for Biden to stand aside into a flood.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionSome of Biden’s most loyal acolytes at the top of the Democratic party have issued less than full-throated statements of support in recent days.Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader, who has repeated the mantra “I’m for Joe” throughout the crisis, was reported to have signalled openness to having the president replaced at the top of the presidential ticket.Axios reported that Schumer had been taking close account of the feelings of party donors and fellow senators in the 12 days since Biden’s meltdown in the 27 June debate, when he plunged the viability of his candidacy into doubt by abjectly failing to defend his own policies or counter Trump’s lies.“As I have made clear repeatedly publicly and privately, I support President Biden and remain committed to ensuring Donald Trump is defeated in November,” Schumer said, in comments that fell short of a ringing endorsement. On Wednesday, Peter Welch of Vermont became the first Democratic senator to publicly tell Biden to step aside. Nine members of the House of Representatives have already done so.“He saved us from Donald Trump once and wants to do it again. But he needs to reassess whether he is the best candidate to do so. In my view, he is not,” Welch wrote in a Washington Post opinion piece.The president retains the support of Democratic governors, senators in the vital swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Black Congressional caucus, key progressive House members including Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, and many others.But the meeting between senators and Biden staff on Thursday will take place against the backdrop of backstage manoeuvring. The former House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, added pressure on Biden on Wednesday by telling MSNBC that it was up to the president to decide and “we are encouraging him to make that decision”. Behind the scenes, Pelosi has reportedly told Democratic Congress members that Biden cannot win the election and should step aside, according to Politico.She has also reportedly encouraged Democrats in swing districts threatened with losing their seats in November to do whatever is necessary to defend themselves, including calling on Biden to stand aside, while suggesting to others in safer districts that they should approach the White House directly with their concerns.Crucially, she is also said to have advised members to wait until the end of today’s Nato gathering before going public. Some Congress members were understood to have drafted statements, ready to release as soon as the gathering of international leaders left Washington.A fresh Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll showed 56% of Democratic voters agreeing that Biden should end his campaign, against 42% who said he should stay put – a finding that undermined the president’s assertion that the effort to oust him was led by “elites” in the party.Biden has held fewer news conferences with journalists in his three and a half years in office than any president since Ronald Reagan.A previous press conference at the White House in February to counter criticisms by Robert Hur, a special prosecutor who criticised the president’s “poor memory”, backfired somewhat when Biden referred to the Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, as “the president of Mexico”. More

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      Trump leads 2024 race in new poll as some Biden aides reportedly discuss how to convince him to end campaign – as it happened

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      Joe Biden is holding a press conference this evening.The US president’s performance tonight will be closely watched by his aides and advisers, who have reportedly been discussing how to persuade him to leave the presidential race, as well as the Trump campaign who reportedly want him to stay.You can follow live coverage of the press conference below:Signs are emerging that people close to Joe Biden may be gearing up to convince him to exit the presidential race. The New York Times dropped two significant reports, one saying that his re-election campaign is looking into how Kamala Harris might fare against Donald Trump, and the other, which was similar to a report by NBC News, saying that aides were discussing ways to get Biden to step aside. However, the leaders of his re-election campaign argue in a new memo that Biden still has a path to victory, and that his standing with voters has not changed as much as commonly believed since his troubling debate against Trump. Later this evening, Biden will take questions at the conclusion of the Nato summit, and you can follow our live blog for the latest on that.Here’s what else happened today:
      Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic House minority leader, wants to talk to every single one of his lawmakers about Biden before deciding on the “next step”, Punchbowl News reports.
      Add Cori Bush to the list of House Democrats not saying if they think Biden can win.
      A meeting between top advisors to Biden and Senate Democrats was reported to have not gone particularly well.
      Most voters think Biden and Trump are “embarrassing”, but the former president has the edge in a new Pew Research Center poll.
      George Clooney gave Barack Obama a heads-up before publicly announcing that he thought Biden should step aside – and Obama did not offer any objections, Politico reported.
      Punchbowl News reports that the meetings between top advisers to Joe Biden and Senate Democrats did not go particularly well.Campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon as well as top White House aides Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon went to meet with the president’s allies in the Capitol to reassure them that the president has a path to win. According to Punchbowl, senators were skeptical:Later today, Joe Biden will hold a press conference following the conclusion of the Nato summit in Washington DC, which will give the president another opportunity to reassure detractors that he is up for another four years of the job.The president will begin taking questions at 6.30pm ET, and we have a separate live blog following the event:Despite their bitter rivalry, Donald Trump’s campaign wants Joe Biden to stay in the race as the president faces increasing calls from his own party to step aside due to his old age.The Guardian’s Hugo Lowell reports:Donald Trump and his campaign want Joe Biden to stay in the race, according to people familiar with the matter, and have discussed taking steps to ensure they don’t push the president to withdraw amid escalating panic among Democrats following his recent debate performance.The latest thinking inside Trump’s campaign is for them not to pile on the concern about Biden’s age and mental acuity in case their attack ads push Biden to step aside.If that happened, the campaign advisers think Trump would lose two lines of attack that have been central to his campaign if Biden steps aside: claiming that Biden is “sleepy” and lacks the fitness for another term in office, and falsely claiming that Biden is to blame for inflation and an uptick in illegal immigration.For the full story:Missouri’s Democratic representative Cori Bush declined to say whether Joe Biden would win the 2024 presidential election.Speaking to ABC correspondent Rachel Scott on Thursday who asked whether Bush supports the president, Bush replied, “What does that mean?”“Do you want to see him be the nominee?” Scott asked, to which Bush said, “I want to beat Trump in November.”“Can Biden do that?” Scott followed up, to which Bush said, “That is a question for Joe Biden.”Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia said he would have to decline to comment because he did not attend the briefing due to another commitment he couldn’t postpone.Meanwhile, senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut says he remains concerned but refused to share any details from the briefing, which he described as “serious”.Senate Democrats are arriving at the Capitol after a briefing by Joe Biden’s campaign officials billed as an opportunity for campaign officials to quell democrats’ panic about the president’s chances of winning the White House in November.Whether it worked, they would not say.As they did earlier this weeks, senators brushed by reporters, ignoring questions about whether the Biden team’s presentation convinced them that he still had a path forward and helped forestall further defections. On Wednesday night Vermont senator Peter Welch became the first senator to ask for Biden to drop out.Concern is mounting and, as the former House speaker Nancy Pelosi said the day before, Democrats believe time is running short for the president to step aside. So far there is no indication Biden will heed the growing calls to abandon his reelection bid, even as calls grow.The president’s supporters – and his doubters – will be watching his performance tonight at a press conference following at the conclusion of the Nato summit.Actor Michael Douglas said that it is “hard to imagine” Joe Biden serving another four years.Speaking to the BBC, Douglas said:
      “It’s a painful, painful decision because I admire the man tremendously, I personally had a fundraiser for him at our house in April and I think he’s done an incredible job.
      But I am worried, not this week or next week but let’s say, next year. It’s just so hard for me to imagine a man four and a half years down the line from now, particularly in a time that’s so combative, that requires someone to really be so articulate.”
      Douglas’s comments follow actor George Clooney, a major Democratic fundraiser, who published a New York Times op-ed in which he called Biden to step aside, saying, “This is about age. Nothing more.”Signs are emerging that people close to Joe Biden may be gearing up to convince him to exit the presidential race. The New York Times dropped two significant reports, with one saying that his re-election campaign is looking into how Kamala Harris might fare against Donald Trump, and the other, which was similar to a report by NBC News, that aides were discussing ways to get Biden to step aside. However, the leaders of his re-election campaign argue in a new memo that Biden still has a path to victory, and that his standing with voters has not changed as much as commonly believed since his troubling debate against Trump. There are two major events happening later today that will be important to watch. The first is a meeting between Democratic senators and three top Biden advisors, which could prove crucial to gauging how his congressional allies feel about his prospects. The second is the president’s press conference following the Nato summit, which is scheduled for 6.30pm ET. An eloquent performance by Biden here could quell doubters who think he is too old to effectively convey his message to voters.But that is not all the news that has happened today:
      Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic House minority leader, wants to talk to every single one of his lawmakers about Biden before deciding on the “next step”, Punchbowl News reports.
      Most voters think Biden and Trump are “embarrassing”, but the former president has the edge in a new Pew Research Center poll.
      George Clooney gave Barack Obama a heads-up before publicly announcing that he thought Biden should step aside – and Obama did not offer any objections, Politico reported.
      In recent days, many Democrats in Congress and elsewhere have responded to questions about whether they support Joe Biden by saying that the president needs to show his strategy for winning.Today’s memo from his campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez could be seen as serving as an answer to those concerns. Beyond indicating that his campaign believes his best path to victory is by winning the traditionally Democratic battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the memo also argues that the race has not changed as much since the debate as some believe.“While there is no question there is increased anxiety following the debate, we are not seeing this translate into a drastic shift in vote share,” Chávez Rodríguez and O’Malley Dillon say, pointing to this ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll from today showing a tied race.They go on to argue that Biden remains within the margin of error of many polls of battleground states, and that key voters view him more positively than Donald Trump:
      Our internal data and public polling show the same thing: this remains a margin-of-error race in key battleground states.
      The movement we have seen, while real, is not a sea-change in the state of the race – while some of this movement was from undecided voters to Trump, much of the movement was driven by historically Democratic constituencies moving to undecided. These voters do not like Donald Trump. In internal polling, our post-debate net favorability is 20 percentage points higher than Trump’s among these voters. These voters have always been core persuasion targets for the campaign and we have a very real path to consolidating their support since they are not considering Trump as an alternative.
      They also downplay the possibility of another candidate performing better against Trump:
      In addition to what we believe is a clear pathway ahead for us, there is also no indication that anyone else would outperform the president vs. Trump. Hypothetical polling of alternative nominees will always be unreliable, and surveys do not take into account the negative media environment that any Democratic nominee will encounter. The only Democratic candidate for whom this is already baked in is President Biden.
      There is a long way to go between now and Election Day with considerable uncertainty and polls in July should not be overestimated, but the data shows we have a clear path to win. As we’ve always said, in today’s fragmented media environment, it will take time for our message to break through with trusted messengers and a strong ground game. That remains the case.
      We’ll see if it’s enough to quell Democratic concerns. Three top Biden aides, including O’Malley Dillon, are meeting today with Democratic senators, in what may be a key moment in shoring up confidence in the president.NBC News has just published a similarly grim report about the chatter by those close to Joe Biden over his chances of hanging on to the presidency.“He needs to drop out,” a Biden campaign official told NBC.They say several of his closest allies, including three people involved in his campaign to win a second term, believe he has “zero” chance of winning, and may swamp Democrats in down-ballot races.Here’s more, from NBC:
      The set of Democrats who think he should reconsider his decision to stay in the race has grown to include aides, operatives and officials tasked with guiding his campaign to victory. Those who spoke to NBC News said the sentiment that he should exit and leave the Democratic nomination to someone else — most likely Vice President Kamala Harris — is widespread even within the ranks of the campaign and the outside Democratic entities supporting it.
      “No one involved in the effort thinks he has a path,” said a second person working to elect him.
      A third person close to the re-election campaign said the present situation — the questions swirling around Biden’s cognitive abilities, the dearth of fundraising and more polls showing Biden dropping in support and other candidates faring better — is unsustainable. This person also said they didn’t see how the campaign could win.
      All of them spoke on the condition of anonymity because they don’t want to be seen as further damaging a candidate they appreciate for his victory over then-President Donald Trump in 2020 and his policy wins in the White House. But two others close to Biden told NBC News that while they haven’t given up all hope of a turnaround, they see that as an increasingly unlikely outcome. And they believe the goal of defeating Trump in November should take precedence over backing Biden.
      “The question for me, and a lot of us, is: Who is the best person to beat Donald Trump?” another person working to elect Biden said. “There are a lot of us that are true blue that are questioning our initial thoughts on that.”
      Ultimately, the decision rests with Biden on whether he stays in, and the president has been insistent this week that he’s not going anywhere. But these sources say that Biden is done — whether he drops out before November or loses to Trump on Election Day.
      In their report, the New York Times says that while people who work with Joe Biden are discussing how to convince him to step aside, the talks do not appear to include his inner circle of confidants.“The people who are closest to the president, a group that includes some of his longest-serving advisers and members of his family, remain adamant that Mr. Biden will stay in the race. A person familiar with the group dynamics said that such conversations are not happening in the group closest to Mr. Biden, that he is still committed to staying in the race, and that he still believes he is the best person to beat Mr. Trump,” the Times reported.“The conversations have been happening outside that small orbit.”The New York Times reports that some aides to Joe Biden are strategizing ways to convince the president that he cannot win re-election, and that stepping aside to make way for another Democrat is the best way to keep Donald Trump from returning to the White House.A White House spokesman denied the story. Here’s what the Times reported:
      Some longtime aides and advisers to President Biden have become increasingly convinced that he will have to step aside from the campaign, and in recent days they have been trying to come up with ways to persuade him that he should, according to three people briefed on the matter.
      A small group of Mr. Biden’s advisers in the administration and the campaign – at least two of whom have told allies that they do not believe he should keep trying to run for a second term – have said they would have to convince the president of several things.
      They said they have to make the case to the president, who remains convinced of the strength of his campaign, that he cannot win against former President Donald J. Trump. They have to persuade him to believe that another candidate, like Vice President Kamala Harris, could beat Mr. Trump. And they have to assure Mr. Biden that, should he step aside, the process to choose another candidate would be orderly and not devolve into chaos in the Democratic Party.
      Those discussions were recounted by three people familiar with them who, like others in this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive situation. There is no indication that any of the discussions have reached Mr. Biden himself, one of the informed people said.
      In a memo acquired by the Guardian, top officials in the Biden-Harris campaign acknowledge that the president has lost standing following the first debate against Donald Trump, but that they believe the race is still winnable.The most likely path for Joe Biden to be re-elected is by winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, reads the memo, which a source familiar said was shared internally by campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez. However, the sun belt states that Biden won in 2020, but which recent polls indicate are drifting away from the president, “are not out of reach”, they write.“No one is denying that the debate was a setback. But Joe Biden and this campaign have made it through setbacks before. We are clear eyed about what we need to do to win. And we will win by moving forward, unified as a party, so that every single day between now and election day we focus on defeating Donald Trump,” the memo reads.The Biden-Harris campaign has commissioned a survey to measure how Kamala Harris would fare in a head-to-head matchup against Donald Trump, the New York Times reports, in a new indication that it is possible Joe Biden could call off his re-election campaign amid mounting concerns about his ability to win.Here’s what the Times says the campaign is doing, and what it might mean:
      The survey, which is being conducted this week and was commissioned by the Biden campaign’s analytics team, is believed to be the first time since the debate that Mr. Biden’s aides have sought to measure how the vice president would fare at the top of the ticket. It was described by three people who are informed about it and insisted on anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information. They did not specify why the survey was being conducted or what the campaign planned to do with the results.
      The effort, which comes as a growing number of prominent lawmakers call for Mr. Biden to step aside or suggest he should reconsider his plans to run, indicates that his campaign may be preparing to wade into a debate that has consumed the Democratic Party behind closed doors: whether Mr. Biden should step aside for his vice president.
      While some of Mr. Biden’s top aides have quietly argued that Ms. Harris could not win the election, donors and other outside supporters of the vice president believe she might be in a stronger position after the debate, and could be a more energetic communicator of the party’s message.
      The Pew Research Center is out with a new poll that indicates voters are very much worried about Joe Biden’s age, and generally Donald Trump in the presidential race.The survey, taken after their late June debate in which Biden appeared to struggle to respond to Trump’s attacks, showed a mere 24% of voters describe the president as “mentally sharp”, while more than twice that number feel that way about Trump. Pew notes that views of Biden as mentally sharp are down significantly from 2020, and by six percentage points from January alone.And while the presidential election will likely be decided in a handful of swing states, Pew found that Trump had a 4 percentage point lead over Biden among registered voters nationwide.That said, the survey confirms that both men are not exactly well thought of. Identical 63% shares of those surveyed described both Trump and Biden as “embarrassing”, including big shares of their own supporters. More

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      Don Jr to introduce Trump’s vice-president pick at Republican convention

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      Donald Trump’s running mate will be introduced at the Republican national convention next Wednesday by his eldest son, according to people familiar with the matter, raising speculation that Senator JD Vance will be named the vice-presidential pick after being endorsed by Don Jr.The fact that Don Jr will speak immediately before the running mate delivers remarks, earlier reported by Axios, is seen as notable inside the Trump campaign because of Don Jr’s close ties to Vance.Still, a person directly familiar with the matter cautioned that the speaking schedule was decided three to four weeks ago and they were uncertain how instructive Don Jr’s involvement was.Trump has said he wants his running mate to be revealed at the convention next week in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, but due to convention rules that require the ticket to be nominated by the first day, the former president has been forced to make a decision before Wednesday.For months, Trump has presided over a characteristically theatrical selection process in which he made dramatic pronouncements at rallies in an effort to drive media speculation before narrowing the list to a final three: the North Dakota governor, Doug Burgum, Senator Marco Rubio and Vance.The leading contenders have run through an emotionally draining fight to be Trump’s running mate, defending the former president in cable news interviews, mingling with members at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club, coalescing support from Trump allies and trying to appeal to Trump’s core Maga voters at rallies.The Guardian has previously reported that Trump has told allies he wants a running mate who would be a “fighter” – someone who is media-savvy and will defend him on adversarial TV networks – and loyal to the extent that they would be “everything Mike Pence wasn’t”.Trump’s former vice-president was a valuable asset during the 2016 and 2020 campaigns because of his Christian conservative credentials that shored up support among Republicans who were suspicious of the thrice-married reality TV star.But Pence’s refusal to do one final favor and comply with Trump’s demand to block the certification of the 2020 election results in Congress led to a falling-out, and made Pence the target of the January 6 Capitol attack rioters.For his 2024 campaign, Trump is seeking a “Goldilocks” running mate: strong but loyal, in tune with Maga but not over-rehearsed, telegenic but not likely to outshine him. His choice will go up against Kamala Harris, the first Black woman to serve as vice-president.Vance, the junior senator from Ohio, has increasingly fit that profile.On Sunday, Vance said on NBC’s Meet the Press that he supported Trump’s vow to appoint a special counsel to prosecute Joe Biden, making apparent references to the House oversight committee’s search for evidence of impeachable conduct by Biden, which it has not found.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionVance also suggested it was reasonable for Trump to prosecute Biden on the grounds that Biden had supposedly weaponized the legal system against him, although there is no evidence Biden has been involved in prosecutorial decisions at the justice department or elsewhere.The NBC anchor Kristen Welker pressed Vance on his support for a special counsel: “If it’s not OK for Joe Biden to weaponize the justice department – as you say, which there’s no evidence of that – why is it OK for Donald Trump to do that?” she asked.Vance repeated the common complaint among Republicans that one former justice department official took a job as a prosecutor in the New York criminal case in which Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to influence the 2016 election with a hush-money scheme.“If Donald Trump’s attorney general had his No 2 or his No 3 jump ship to a local prosecutor’s office in Ohio or Wisconsin, and that person then went after Donald Trump’s political opposition, that’s a different conversation,” he said, though the prosecutor at issue was not as senior as the hypothetical.Trump has repeatedly vowed to prosecute his political enemies, sharing posts on his Truth Social website that advocated jailing top Democrats and Republicans who criticized him, including one that said the former House Republican Liz Cheney should face “televised military tribunals”. More

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      Don’t go, Joe: flummoxed Trump campaign wants Biden to stay in race

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      Donald Trump and his campaign want Joe Biden to stay in the race, according to people familiar with the matter, and have discussed taking steps to ensure they don’t push the president to withdraw amid escalating panic among Democrats following his recent debate performance.The latest thinking inside Trump’s campaign is for them not to pile on the concern about Biden’s age and mental acuity in case their attack ads push Biden to step aside.If that happened, the campaign advisers think Trump would lose two lines of attack that have been central to his campaign: claiming that Biden is “sleepy” and lacks the fitness for another term in office, and falsely claiming that Biden is to blame for inflation and an uptick in illegal immigration.The situation with Biden has flummoxed the Trump campaign as they now walk the tightrope of continuing to campaign against Biden in the likelihood that he remains the Democratic nominee for president, without hitting his age to the extent that it helps push him to withdraw.Trump’s senior campaign advisers are also concerned that if Biden leaves the race, they would not be able to deploy their contingency plans until a replacement at the top of the ticket was confirmed.A new opponent could open up new challenges for the Trump campaign. If Democrats coalesced behind a younger candidate, for instance, neither the lethargy portrayal nor the Biden administration record would work – and the campaign would need to come up with newly tailored attacks.A Trump spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.To preserve the status quo – Trump is marginally ahead of Biden in battleground states in private and public polling – the Trump campaign has settled on the message that it is too late for Democrats to change their nominee and Biden cannot step down.Trump himself has downplayed the idea that Biden would be replaced. “If you listen to the professionals that do this stuff, they say it’s very hard for anybody else to come into the race,” Trump said in an interview with John Reid, a Virginia-based talk radio host.And the message being blasted by Trump-allied Super Pacs, two weeks after the debate, is that Biden has to stay in the race at least until the Democratic national convention in August if any potential successor wants to acquire Biden’s substantial war chest.The Biden campaign and the White House have insisted that the president will be the nominee, and are planning a new round of campaign events and interviews. Biden faces an unscripted press-conference at the Nato summit in Washington on Thursday night, and an NBC interview next week Monday.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBiden’s campaign announced raising $127m in June, ending the month with $240m in cash on hand. Trump raised a comparatively smaller figure of $111.8m, with $285m in the bank.Still, the Trump campaign has started to plan for contingencies, including if the vice-president, Kamala Harris, became the nominee, although they have been less concerned about a Harris-led ticket because they believe they can hit her with the Biden administration’s policy record, the people said.The Trump campaign has started to use ads trying to start the narrative that Harris was always planning to depose Biden, using clips of Harris laughing against the Biden-Harris logo collapsing into just the Harris text. The campaign is also accusing Democratic candidates of covering up Biden’s decline. More