US midterm elections 2022

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      How Gen Z agencies wooed Democratic voters: ‘Young people are nervous to trust politicians’

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      How Gen Z agencies wooed Democratic voters: ‘Young people are nervous to trust politicians’ Gen Z voters have faced crisis after crisis. In the midterms, peers helped candidates connect with themDemocrats avoided a predicted “red wave”, and they have Gen Z to thank. Tuesday night’s big wins can largely be attributed to young voters, who showed up en masse and overwhelmingly voted blue.Exit voting polls found that one in eight midterm voters were under 30, and 61% of those between the ages of 18 and 34 voted for Democrats. The results pushed the Fox News pundits Jesse Watters and Laura Ingram to suggest that the legal voting age should be increased to 21.Partly responsible for high youth turnout was a new generation of political consultants who had been stumping behind the scenes for months, challenging the generalization that Gen Z is too lazy or disillusioned to bother casting ballots.First Gen Z member elected as midterms could usher in a more diverse CongressRead moreSome of these strategists are essentially hipper and more digitally savvy startup versions of their more entrenched Beltway counterparts. Like traditional consultants, Gen Z research firms are hired by campaigns to target voters. But they are specifically tasked to reach young voters where they are. And, often, that’s TikTok.“Gen Z is ageing into the electorate every single day. It can be a daunting new audience for traditional candidates to face and figure out,” said Ashley Aylward, who leads research at Hit Strategies, whose website boasts of “competency with communities of color, women, LGBTQ+, and younger audiences”.The Democratic gubernatorial contenders Mandela Barnes and Chris Jones tapped Hit Strategies to work on their campaigns. The Washington-based group has also worked with movements such as Black Lives Matter and various ACLU chapters.Aylward said Gen Z cared more about the issues than aligning themselves to a particular candidate. “Young people are a little nervous to trust politicians on delivering their promises,” she said. If you want to speak to jaded youth, Aylward recommends sticking to the script that details their unique challenges: school shootings, the climate crisis, debt and the reversal of Roe v Wade. “One thing that really helped [Democratic candidates] was having abortion on the ballot, even if those measures were in other states,” she said. “We advised our clients to really make sure that they talked about it.”But candidates also have to change the way they speak to young voters. One candidate who did this particularly well, according to Aylward, was John Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s next senator.Fetterman, who spent spent $12m on communications consultants, posted lighthearted content online throughout his campaign. He jumped on TikTok’s Teenage Dirtbag trends and invited Jersey Shore’s Snooki (AKA Nicole Polizzi) to make fun of his opponent Mehmet Oz’s Garden state roots. “There were memes and humor, and that really penetrated the social media market for young people who feel overwhelmed about the amount of political problems they’re facing,” Aylward said. “He was able to use the language of young voters while still having a plan and being serious.”Young voters hailed as key to Democratic successes in midtermsRead moreGen Z strategists aren’t just working directly with candidates but also alongside political action groups and non-profits. Antonio Arellano is the vice-president of communications for Next Gen America, an advocacy group founded in 2013. Before the midterms, the 32-year-old Texan recruited 164 influencers to talk to their followers about issues that would bring them to the polls: climate, gun control, reproductive rights. The effort reached an audience of 65 million. The influencers were paid and had to declare so, but, crucially, Arellano still gave them a lot of latitude on what they said.“We gave the influencers high-level talking points about issues and why they’re important, and then said, ‘Incorporate this into your content in whatever way you want,’” said Arellano. “If you’re a comedian, make a joke about it. If you’re an actor, do a skit. We didn’t tell them what to say. We really leaned into their voice and genuine lived experience to drive the message home.“If an influencer is angry, frustrated, upset, we want them to use their voice and express it that way.”Rage works, but Arellano suggests reminding Gen Z at every opportunity just how much their actions can shape elections. “What we saw overwhelmingly when we were out on the campaign is that young people weren’t aware of how much their contributions to 2020 delivered substantial wins,” he said. “We have the Inflation Reduction Act, investment in climate change, student debt relief and conversations about marijuana reform. Let’s own and claim these victories for Gen Z. It’s about bragging better about our accomplishments, not just after the midterms but in the lead-up to elections, too.”Aylward conducts focus groups and surveys where she’s found that reminding young people of times their bloc helped sway the results of an election  “helps remind them as an individual that they’re part of a larger group that can make change”.“It helps get through the high level of anxiety young people feel, because they’re so overwhelmed at the high amount of issues they have to tackle,” she said.Not everyone in the field is certain these strategies are effective. Ziad Ahmed, CEO of the Gen Z-staffed firm JUV Consulting, still believes Gen Z needs to focus on more traditional get-out-the-vote tactics on the ground.He says Beto O’Rourke and Val Demings were the two candidates who showed up most in his TikTok #ForYouPage. But both lost their races. “I’m not necessarily convinced that content always translates into results. A lot of content on TikTok from people is from people who are not in the states where I lived. I loved those candidates, but they were thousands of miles away. Social media is not often localized enough to impact voters.”The States of Change project predicts that Gen Z and millennials will be the largest voting bloc by age in 2024, responsible for 45% of all ballots cast. Baby Boomers will account for 25%. Aylward expects to consult with more candidates on how to target the youth. She admits that some of her advice, like getting on TikTok, seems a little bit “obvious”.“The reason why is because we don’t have people who are interested in reaching out to young voters,” she said. “Sometimes the obvious answers are the right answers; people just aren’t using them. I hope people will try to engage more in the future.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsfeaturesReuse this content More

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      ‘I never doubted it’: why film-maker Michael Moore forecast ‘blue tsunami’ in midterms

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      ‘I never doubted it’: why film-maker Michael Moore forecast ‘blue tsunami’ in midtermsFilm-maker says the salient lesson from the midterms for Democrats is to stop depressing their own vote with pessimism, fear and conventional thinking In the lead up to last week’s midterm elections in America, the punditocracy of commentators, pollsters and political-types were almost united: a “red wave” of Republican gains was on the cards.But one dissenting voice stood out: that of leftist filmmaker Michael Moore. Against all the commonplace predictions, he had forecast Democrats would do well. He called it a “blue tsunami”.That proved to be true in his home state of Michigan, where Democrats won governor, house and senate for the first time in 40 years, often by large margins. It’s been more of a blue wall across the rest of the country, where Republican gains mostly failed to materialize, with the exception of Florida. But even so, the strong Democrat performance has stunned people on both sides of the US political divide, delighting the left and sparking hand-wringing on the right.With the Democrats retaining power in the Senate, and a chance that even the House could remain in their control, suddenly Moore is looking like a prognosticator par excellence.“I never doubted it – there was no way the Republicans were going to have some kind of landslide,” Moore said in an interview.But, he added: “I don’t have any special powers, I’m not related to Nostradamus or Cassandra, but I was stunned once again that nobody was willing to stick their neck out. I was just trying to say that common sense, and data – and if you’re not living in a bubble – should bring you to the same conclusion that there are more of us than them.”“We’ve won seven of the last eight elections in the popular vote, we’ve got more registered, we have a new crop of young people every year, plus the fact that 70% of eligible voters are either women, people of color, or 18 to 25 year olds, or a combination of the three,” he said. “That’s the Democratic party’s base”.In the last of his increasingly popular mass emails, Mike’s Midterm Tsunami Truth #41, published on Wednesday, he wrote a devastating critique of the conventional wisdom of a US electorate focused on economic woes, fearful of crime and resigned to the loss of abortion rights, while non-plussed by the election-denying Republicans.“We were lied to for months by the pundits and pollsters and the media. Voters had not ‘moved on’ from the Supreme Court’s decision to debase and humiliate women by taking federal control over their reproductive organs. Crime was not at the forefront of the voters ‘simple’ minds. Neither was the price of milk. It was their democracy that they came to fight for yesterday,” he penned.Moore doesn’t have an answer for why pundits, pollsters and the media get it repeatedly wrong but theorizes that self-reinforcing storylines become established that are hard to back away off. He also questions the fear-mongering that’s often implicit in narrative lines the media adopt. “They may be trying to gin up the vote through fear – ‘This is going to happen so you’d better get your butts to polls’. They may think it’s noble, but I don’t think it’s noble at all,” he said.And there are questions for the political machinery. As anyone who has voted knows, the moment you register to vote or donate to candidate, the inbox is almost instantaneously bombarded with what Moore calls “scare emails”.“Don’t they understand that’s just going to depress the vote? If we don’t keep the House I think the reason for that is the scare tactics of the Democratic party and perhaps some enablers in the media who are ginning up this, ‘Trump is on his way back, folks, here comes the big bad boogie man’. By doing that they hurt the thing overall.”He wants a more positive message from the left, based less on scaring people and more on inspiring them. Already a self-defeating post-Trump narrative is taking shape, Moore believes, and it revolves mostly around Florida governor Ron DeSantis. “Oh, DeSantis is going to win because he’s like Trump but he’s smarter oooh, oooh”.DeSantis does represent the kind of forceful, base-pleasing call-to-arms that Democrats fear. “He is clever to rent private jets and fly refugees up to Martha’s Vineyard,” Moore says. “Do you know the sort of orgasmic feeling that happens inside a right-winger when they see him doing something wonderful and crazy like that, slamming it right in the liberals face.”The left can learn a lesson from that playbook: get creative, though not cruel. He points out that wasn’t until 10pm the night before the vote that Democrats finally put up a campaign ad featuring LeBron James, the most popular basketball player in America, asking voters in Georgia to vote against Herschel Walker in Georgia.“Why didn’t they do that months ago? They wait until the last night to put up one of great African American sports stars?”Last summer, when John Fetterman was laid up recovering from a stroke, his campaign went on Cameo.com and, for just $400, recruited reality-T.V. star Nicole “Snooki” Polizzi of MTV’s Jersey Shore fame.“Hey Mehmet! This is Nicole ‘Snooki’ and I’m from ‘Jersey Shore’” Polizzi said in a video posted by Fetterman on Twitter, adding that she’d heard that he’d moved from New Jersey to Pennsylvania to “look for a new job.”“And personally, I don’t know why anyone would want to leave Jersey because it’s, like, the best place ever,” she said. “And we’re all hot messes. But I want to say best of luck to you. I know you’re away from home and you’re in a new place, but Jersey will not forget you. I just want to let you know I will not forget you.”The question for Democrats, Moore says, is why they wont use story-tellers, writers and creative people more often?In 2016, before Hillary Clinton lost the election, Moore, Amy Schumer, Chris Rock and Bill Maher offered to write lines for her debates with Trump, he says.“We offered to write great lines to throw at Trump whose his skin is so thin – and if she delivered them right – would just slide in and he’ll explode on the stage on live TV’, Moore recalls. “We were all-in on it, and nobody was going to know”.The gang presented the scheme to the Clinton campaign – and got flatly rejected.“They said, why would you do that? You know Amy, her comedy is apparently kind of dirty. Chris Rock, well he’s kind of controversial. They didn’t even get to me. They were so afraid of fucking up and being blamed… oh, so you were the one who let Amy Schumer and Michael Moore into the campaign. Thanks a lot!”“That proves my point that we won when they stuffed $400 on the Jersey Shore lady. We need more of that. Call me. Call a couple of Monty Python people. Call us!”Moore says two out of three emails he got after starting his email newsletter were from readers who signaled that they’d depressed themselves into thinking the mid-terms were a lost cause. Their reasoning followed, again, the narrative line of Biden’s low approval rating, inflation, the economy, crime and so on. They ignored the still burning rage of the loss of women’s reproductive rights.“I said, what’s inflation or past elections got to do with anything? We don’t live in that time anymore. There are now going to be more women doctors than men, more women lawyers than men. Don’t you have a clue that there is something going on? You can’t take human rights away from an entire gender and not have that blow up in your face”.The point was proved by the number of wins secured by abortion rights activists in ballot measures. There were wins in Kentucky, Michigan, California, Montana and Vermont, in addition to Kansas over the summer.Thus the salient lesson from the midterms is, to Moore, for Democrats to stop depressing their own vote with pessimism, fear and conventional thinking. “The average liberal, progressive leftist needs to immediately stop think you’re going to lose. Stop it, stop it, stop it. Think ‘the American people are with us’,” he said.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsDemocratsMichael MoorefeaturesReuse this content More

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      US midterm elections: Democrats retain control of Senate as House race still undecided – as it happened

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      It’s been a day of celebrations and recriminations so far in US politics after the Democrats retained control of the Senate in a stunning midterm election rebuke for previously confident Republicans.A civil war appears to be under way inside the Republican party, with several senior party officials taking to the Sunday political talk shows to point fingers of blame.In one camp, “legacy” Republicans such as Larry Hogan, the retiring governor of Maryland, say responsibility for the failure rests with former president Donald Trump, and his handpicked slew of extremist candidates who flopped at the polls.Hogan, among those calling for a change of leadership, told CNN’s State of the Union:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Trump’s cost us the last three elections, and I don’t want to see it happen a fourth time.This is the third election in a row that Trump has cost us. Three strikes and you’re out. pic.twitter.com/F3LIkZYCsX— Larry Hogan (@LarryHogan) November 13, 2022
      In the other faction, Florida senator Rick Scott, head of the Republican Senate leadership committee, is among the Trump loyalists attempting to scapegoat Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell.Scott told Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures he wanted next week’s party leadership elections postponed, claiming McConnell had strangled election strategy:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Mitch McConnell said… we’re not going to have a plan. We’re just going to talk about how bad the Democrats are. Why would you do that?Democrats, meanwhile, are jubilant. Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren told NBC’s Meet the Press:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}This victory belongs to Joe Biden. It belongs to Joe Biden, and the Democrats who got out there and fought for working people. The things we did were important and popular.Things are less clear in the House of Representatives, where a number of close races are yet to be called, and Republicans are closing in on a narrow majority.And in Arizona, we’re awaiting a winner in the tight and heated governor’s race between Democrat Katie Hobbs and extremist Republican Kari Lake.We’ll have more news, commentary and reaction coming up through the afternoon.We’re closing our US midterms blog now after a day of rancor and recriminations among senior Republicans following the Democrats’ success in retaining control of the Senate.The party seems split into two factions, those keen to move on from Donald Trump as party leader and kingmaker after the failure of many of his endorsed candidates, and those who insist others, such as Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, are to blame for a lack of messaging.By contrast, jubilant Democrats were looking ahead with renewed enthusiasm, even with control of the House of Representatives yet to be determined.
      Elizabeth Warren, senator for Massachusetts, said it was “Joe Biden’s victory”, while the president himself tweeted en route to Indonesia that he was always an optimist and “not surprised” his party had recaptured the Senate.
      We’ve also been watching the heated race for governor in Arizona between extremist Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake has repeated unfounded allegations that the count is somehow improper as it approaches its sixth day.
      We’ll bring you any updates in news reports tonight, and please join us again on Monday. Meanwhile, take a read of Oliver Laughland’s report on where things stand:Democrats celebrate retaining control of Senate as Republicans take stockRead moreYounger candidates suggest a generational change is under way in the US political landscape. The Guardian’s Ed Pilkington takes a look:We are in the early hours of Wednesday morning, 6 November 2024, and after a nail-biting night two men are preparing to give their respective victory and concession speeches in the US presidential election. One of the men is days away from his 82nd birthday, the other is 78.The prospect of a possible rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in two years’ time is instilling trepidation in both main parties. It is not just the political perils that go with either individual, it’s also the simple matter of their age.What happened to the America of the new world, the young country?But in the wake of this week’s midterm elections there is a stirring in the air. The Democratic party may remain heavily dominated by the old guard – the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, is 82 and the top senator, Chuck Schumer, is 69 – yet there are strong signs of fresh beginnings.From the first openly lesbian governors in the US and first Black governor of Maryland, to the first Gen Z member of Congress, as well as battle-hardened young politicians in critical swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, a new slate of Democratic leaders is coming into view after Tuesday’s elections. They may be too new to reshape the 2024 presidential race, but they carry much promise for the years to come.“There’s a generational change happening of the kind you see every few decades,” said Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist who has worked on state and congressional campaigns. “A younger generation is emerging with different ideas who aren’t necessarily wedded to the old way of doing things.”It is perhaps no coincidence that several of the names garnering attention are to be found in battleground states where their political skills and resilience have been put to the test. In Michigan, which has become a frontline state in the struggle between liberal versus Maga politics, Gretchen Whitmer handily won a double-digit re-election in her gubernatorial race against Tudor Dixon, an election denier.Whitmer, 51, proved herself not only adept at fending off election subversion misinformation in a midwestern state, but she also withstood the pressures of the kidnap plot against her which led to last month’s convictions of three anti-government plotters. “After two terms as governor, Whitmer is going to be well placed for a move on to the national stage,” Trippi said.Read the full story:New generation of candidates stakes claim to Democratic party’s futureRead moreAuthor and political analyst Michael Cohen has penned an opinion piece for the Observer, and finds America “almost perfectly divided between Democrats and Republicans”:Midterm elections in the United States are where the hopes and dreams of governing parties go to die. Since 1932, the party in power has lost on average 28 seats in the House of Representatives and four seats in the Senate. In 2018, two years after taking the White House and both Houses of Congress, Republicans lost 40 House seats and control of the chamber. In 2010, Democrats lost 63 seats. In 1994, it was 54 and eight Senate seats. Every two years, after electing a new president, voters, generally speaking, go to the polls with buyer’s remorse.But not this year. In a truly stunning outcome, Democrats reversed the historical trend lines and, at least for the time being, protected American democracy from the worst excesses of the Donald Trump-led Republican party.While all the votes still need to be tabulated, it appears that Democrats will keep control of the Senate and have an outside chance of maintaining their narrow majority in the House of Representatives. At the beginning of the year such a scenario was virtually unimaginable. Democrats were facing not only historical headwinds but also rising inflation, a teetering economy and an unpopular incumbent president. Traditionally, these are the kinds of political dynamics that portend a Republican-wave victory in November.But then in June the supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, removed a 50-year constitutional guarantee protecting reproductive health rights and virtually overnight turned American women into second-class citizens. Over the summer, congressional Democrats achieved a host of notable legislative successes and President Biden announced billions in student loan forgiveness, fulfilling a promise he’d made during the 2020 presidential campaign.By the autumn, the political winds shifted in the Democrats’ direction – and no issue loomed larger than abortion. In August, a referendum in ruby-red Kansas, which would have made it easier for Republicans in the state legislature to outlaw the procedure, lost by a whopping 18 points.Democratic campaign advisers took their cues from Kansas and made abortion the centrepiece of the autumn campaign. And in the states where Republicans’ victories could have led to potentially greater abortion restrictions, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, Democrats won decisive victories. In suburban districts, the new linchpin of the Democratic coalition, white female college graduates, outraged by the supreme court decision, propelled House Democratic candidates to victory in toss-up races.Republicans compounded the problem by nominating a host of Trump-endorsed first-time Senate and gubernatorial candidates. The closer a Republican was to Trump, the worse they did on Tuesday.Read the full story:Democrats’ triumph may be miraculous but US is still split down the middle | Michael CohenRead moreJamie Raskin, the Democratic Maryland congressman who serves on the January 6 committee, and led the House prosecution at Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial, says the former president might “destroy” the Republican party.Raskin was speaking on CBS’ Face the Nation, five days after numerous Trump-endorsed candidates flopped in midterm election races. Emboldened by their failures, some senior Republicans are openly calling out Trump for the first time.He said he cautioned the Republican party during the impeachment last year to jettison Trump, but instead the Senate voted to acquit him:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}When I was over in the Senate with the impeachment team, I told the Republicans there that this was our opportunity to deal with the problem of Donald Trump, who had committed high crimes and misdemeanors against the people of the United States.
      And they needed to act on behalf of the country and the Constitution. But if they didn’t, he would become their problem. And at this point, Donald Trump is the problem of the Republican Party and he may destroy their party.Raskin notes on CBS that Republicans had an opportunity to convict Trump after his second impeachment and prevent him from running for office, but they didn’t, and now “he may destroy their party” pic.twitter.com/ddaxECesrA— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 13, 2022
      The work of the January 6 committee investigating Trump’s coup attempt will continue, Raskin says, though the panel is mindful that Republicans might win control of the House of Representatives and close the inquiry down:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}In a democracy, the people have the right to the truth. And what we withstood was a systematic assault on democratic institutions in an attempt to overthrow a presidential election. So we have set forth the truth in a series of hearings.
      And we’re going to set forth the truth in our final report, along with a set of legislative recommendations about what we need to do to fortify American democracy, against coups, insurrections, electoral sabotage and political violence with domestic violent extremist groups involved.
      We’re going to put all of that out there.The January 6 final report is expected to be released before the end of the year.Here’s the Guardian’s Oliver Laughland on the ongoing fallout from the midterm election results:As the balance of power in the US House of Representatives remained unresolved on Sunday, Democrats are celebrating the projection that they won control of the Senate, marking a significant victory for Joe Biden as Republicans backed by his presidential predecessor Donald Trump underperformed in key battleground states.While senior Democrats remained guarded Sunday about the chances of keeping control of both chambers of Congress, House speaker Nancy Pelosi hailed the party’s performance in the midterms following months of projections indicating heavy losses.“Who would have thought two months ago that this red wave would turn into a little tiny trickle, if that at all,” Pelosi told CNN.She added: “We’re still alive [for control of the House] but again the races are close. We don’t pray for victory… but you pray that God’s will will be done.”As of Sunday morning Republicans remained seven seats shy of the 218 needed to win control of the House, with Democrats requiring 14, an indication that a majority on either side will be slim. As internal discussions between House Republicans intensify over potential leadership roles, with minority leader Kevin McCarthy facing opposition from the far right freedom caucus, Pelosi remained circumspect about her own future, saying she would not make any announcements on her plans until after the House’s control is decided.“My decision will then be rooted in what the wishes of my family [are], and the wishes of my caucus,” Pelosi said, with reference to her husband Paul Pelosi’s ongoing recovery following an allegedly politically motivated violent burglary and attack at their family home in San Francisco last month. She added: “There are all kinds of ways to exert influence. The speaker has awesome power, but I will always have influence.”The Democrats were projected to maintain their control of the Senate on Saturday evening when a tight race in Nevada was called for the incumbent Catherine Cortez Mastro who defeated Adam Laxalt, a Trump-backed, former state attorney general.Read the full story:Democrats celebrate retaining control of Senate as Republicans take stockRead moreJoe Biden says he always felt his party would keep control of the Senate.The president is tweeting on his way to Indonesia, where he’ll meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Monday ahead of the two-day G20 summit in Bali. He has been following closely election developments back home.I’m an optimist but I’m not surprised Senate Democrats held the majority. Working together, we’ve delivered historic progress for working families.Americans chose that progress.— President Biden (@POTUS) November 13, 2022
      Speaking to reporters in Cambodia late on Saturday during the Asean summit, Biden congratulated Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer but appeared to acknowledge how a Republican-controlled House might affect his agenda going forward.“We feel good about where we are,” Biden said. “And I know I’m a cockeyed optimist – I understand that – from the beginning, but I’m not surprised by the turnout.”Here’s an interesting, and historic, statistic from the midterm elections, according to the States Project, an advocacy group promoting democracy at state level.For the first time in almost 90 years, covering dozens of election cycles, the party in the White House retained every state legislative chamber it was defending, and this year gained two more.HISTORY. MADE. For the first time since 1934, the party who holds the WH didn’t lose a *single* state leg chamber. AND we gained 2 new trifectas. I believe that the @StatesProjectUS historic investment made the difference. Here’s why.🧵 https://t.co/EKoeEVr0ZS— Daniel Squadron (@DanielSquadron) November 11, 2022
      It’s been a day of celebrations and recriminations so far in US politics after the Democrats retained control of the Senate in a stunning midterm election rebuke for previously confident Republicans.A civil war appears to be under way inside the Republican party, with several senior party officials taking to the Sunday political talk shows to point fingers of blame.In one camp, “legacy” Republicans such as Larry Hogan, the retiring governor of Maryland, say responsibility for the failure rests with former president Donald Trump, and his handpicked slew of extremist candidates who flopped at the polls.Hogan, among those calling for a change of leadership, told CNN’s State of the Union:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Trump’s cost us the last three elections, and I don’t want to see it happen a fourth time.This is the third election in a row that Trump has cost us. Three strikes and you’re out. pic.twitter.com/F3LIkZYCsX— Larry Hogan (@LarryHogan) November 13, 2022
      In the other faction, Florida senator Rick Scott, head of the Republican Senate leadership committee, is among the Trump loyalists attempting to scapegoat Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell.Scott told Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures he wanted next week’s party leadership elections postponed, claiming McConnell had strangled election strategy:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Mitch McConnell said… we’re not going to have a plan. We’re just going to talk about how bad the Democrats are. Why would you do that?Democrats, meanwhile, are jubilant. Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren told NBC’s Meet the Press:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}This victory belongs to Joe Biden. It belongs to Joe Biden, and the Democrats who got out there and fought for working people. The things we did were important and popular.Things are less clear in the House of Representatives, where a number of close races are yet to be called, and Republicans are closing in on a narrow majority.And in Arizona, we’re awaiting a winner in the tight and heated governor’s race between Democrat Katie Hobbs and extremist Republican Kari Lake.We’ll have more news, commentary and reaction coming up through the afternoon.Analysts say victory by Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, which secured her party’s control of the Senate for two more years, will be of massive importance to Joe Biden’s plans for filling judicial vacancies.Retaining the majority in the chamber gives the president the opportunity to keep getting his picks confirmed, something for which the incumbent senator was a key ally even before the midterms.“Cortez Masto has been an excellent senator, who has represented Nevada very well. One example is her efforts to keep the federal district court vacancies in Nevada filled,” said Carl Tobias, Williams professor of law at the University of Richmond and former lecturer in law at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.“Last year, she and Senator [Jacky] Rosen recommended two well qualified, mainstream candidates whom Biden nominated and the Senate smoothly confirmed.“The Democrats’ retention of the Senate majority will enable Biden and that majority to continue nominating and confirming highly qualified judges who are diverse in terms of ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, ideology and experience, like Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson and Nevada district judges Cristina Silva and Anne Traum. “These nominees and appointees will mean that Biden and the Democrats have honored their promises to counter former President Trump’s confirmation of 231 judges, especially on the Supreme Court and the appellate courts, who are extremely conservative. “For example, Biden and the Democrats have already appointed 25 appellate judges and are on track to confirm at least five, and perhaps as many as 10 more, judges for those courts this year. Biden and the Democratic majority can build on this success for two more years. “Kari Lake, the Republican election denier trailing Democrat Katie Hobbs in the contest to become governor of Arizona, has been on Fox News complaining again about the pace of the count.Although Arizona law dictates the process, and speed, by which the ballots are counted, Lake is also unhappy that Hobbs, as secretary of state, has involvement in the election, even though her opponent’s role is at arm’s length by certifying the count when it’s complete.“I consider someone’s vote their voice. I think of it as a sacred vote, and it’s being trampled the way we run our elections in Arizona,” Lake said.“We can’t be the laughingstock of elections anymore. Here in Arizona, and when I’m governor, I will not allow it. I just won’t.”It’s a familiar gripe from Lake, who has pledged to be the media’s “worst fricking nightmare” if she wins, and has refused to say if she would accept the result of the election if she lost.Several dozen of her supporters, some in military-style fatigues, lent a menacing air to the count by gathering outside the Maricopa county elections in Phoenix on Saturday and hurling abuse at sheriff’s deputies.VOTERS: All legal votes will be counted. Your vote will count equally whether it is reported first, last, or somewhere in between. Thank you for participating.— Maricopa County (@maricopacounty) November 12, 2022
      Lake, the Arizona Republican party, and Republican national committee (RNC), have all lobbed out unfounded allegations of misconduct and incompetence by election officials, as the count enters its sixth day.Bill Gates, chair of Maricopa’s board of supervisors, hit back, telling CNN: “The suggestion by the RNC that there is something untoward going on here in Maricopa county, is absolutely false and offensive to these good elections workers.”The county is also rejecting online grumblings:SOCIAL MEDIA BOTS: Your disapproval is duly noted but your upvotes and retweets will not be part of this year’s totals. This is not meant as an affront to your robot overlords, it’s just not allowed for in Arizona law.— Maricopa County (@maricopacounty) November 12, 2022
      Lake said she did not expect the race to be called until at least Monday. She conceded: “I’m willing to wait until every vote is counted. I think every candidate should wait until every vote is counted.”Rick Scott, the Florida senator who heads the Republican senatorial committee, has been pouring fuel on the post-midterms fire that threatens Mitch McConnell’s future as Senate minority leader.Despite helping to mastermind the election campaign strategy that fell flat when Democrats retained control of the chamber, Scott, and other Donald Trump loyalists, say it’s all McConnell’s fault.On Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, Scott repeated his call for next week’s Republican leadership elections at least until after the Georgia Senate run-off on 6 December:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Mitch McConnell said… we’re not going to have a plan. We’re just going to talk about how bad the Democrats are. Why would you do that?
      What is our plan? What are we running on? What do we stand for? What are we hell bent to get done? The leadership of the Republican Senate says ‘no, you cannot have a plan’. We’re just gonna run it on how bad the Democrats are, and actually they cave in to the Democrats.Scott, and Senate colleagues Marco Rubio (Florida) and Ted Cruz (Texas) are among those with knives out for McConnell, aided and abetted by former members of Trump’s inner circle who are keen to shift the blame for the Republican flop away from the former president.Stephen Miller, Trump’s former senior policy advisor, continued the theme, also on Sunday Morning Futures:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}You’re going to lose these close races because the Republican brand, set by Mitch McConnell on down, is not exciting, is not persuasive, is not convincing to voters.While Republicans, or some of them at least, are blaming Donald Trump for the party’s midterms misfire, leading Democrats have no doubt with whom the credit should lie: Joe Biden.Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, herself a former candidate for the party’s presidential nomination, was almost giddy in her analysis of the elections in an appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press this morning:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Donald Trump, with his preening and his selection of truly awful candidates, didn’t do his party any favors.
      But this victory belongs to Joe Biden. It belongs to Joe Biden, and the Democrats who got out there and fought for working people. The things we did were important and popular.
      Remember, right after Joe Biden was sworn in, all of the economists and the pundits in his ear who were saying, “go slow, go small.”
      Joe Biden didn’t listen to them. And in fact, he went big. He went big on vaccinations. He went big on testing, but he also went big on helping people who were still unemployed, on setting America’s working families up so they could manage the choppy waters in the economy following the pandemic.
      We were able to address the values and the economic security of people across this country. And it sure paid off. It paid off at historic levels.Also on Meet the Press, White House senior advisor Anita Dunn reflected on Biden’s pre-election strategy of bashing extremist “Maga Republicans” named for Trump’s Make America Great Again movement:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}A lot of people thought it wouldn’t work. Former President Trump kind of adopted it himself. But it was a very effective strategy for raising for the American people the hazards of going down that path with democracy denial, threats of political violence to achieve political ends, an extremist program that involves denying women the right to an abortion, economic policies that continue to be trickled down, as opposed to bottom up and middle out.
      The Republican Party has to come up with what they’re actually for. It’s very clear what President Biden and the Democratic Party are for.The Guardian’s Sam Levine has news of a consequential victory for Democrats in Nevada:Cisco Aguilar, a Democrat, was elected Nevada’s top election official, beating Jim Marchant, a Republican who is linked to the QAnon sought to spread misinformation about the results of the 2020 race.His victory is a significant win against efforts to sow doubt in US elections, a growing force in the Republican party.The Nevada secretary of state race was one of the most competitive in the country and closely watched because of Marchant’s extreme views. It was also one of several contests in which Republican candidates who questioned the election results were running to be the top election official in their state.Thank you, Nevada!! It is the honor of my life to serve as your next Secretary of State. pic.twitter.com/XiQtpCTlRu— Cisco Aguilar (@CiscoForNevada) November 12, 2022
      Marchant, a former state lawmaker, said during the campaign that if he and other like-minded secretary of states were elected, Donald Trump would be re-elected in 2024. He has also said that Nevada elections are run by a “cabal”, and that Nevadans haven’t elected a president in over a decade.He also has pushed Nevada counties to adopt risky and costly hand counts of ballots and leads the America First Secretary of State coalition, a group of secretary of state candidates running for key election positions who pledged to overturn the 2020 race.Aguilar had never run for elected office, but cast himself as a defender of Nevada’s democracy. His campaign emphasized the extremist threat Marchant posed. He far outraised Marchant and was much more present on the campaign trail.Read the full story:Democrat Cisco Aguilar defeats election denier in Nevada secretary of state raceRead moreRepublicans have been bashing Donald Trump on the Sunday talk shows, with Maryland governor Larry Hogan calling him the “800lb gorilla” as the former president prepares to announce a new White House run this week.The party’s less than stellar midterms performance, which included a slew of defeats for extremist candidates endorsed by Trump, have prompted growing chorus from senior officials that it’s “time to move on” from him.Leading the call Sunday was Hogan, for so long one of very few Republicans daring to speak out against the twice-impeached former president.Hogan, who is termed out of office in January, told CNN’s State of the Union it would be “a mistake” for Trump to run again, noting that the White House, Senate and House were all lost under his watch:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}He’s still the 800 pound gorilla. It’s still a battle that’s going to continue for the next few years. We’re two years out from the next election. And the dust is settling from this one. I think it’d be a mistake. Trump’s cost us the last three elections and I don’t want to see it happen a fourth time.Over on NBC’s Meet the Press, Louisiana senator Bill Cassidy also laid Republicans’ poor showing at Trump’s door, alluding to his fixation with his 2020 defeat by Joe Biden, and candidates who bought into the lie that the election was stolen from him:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}Those that were most closely aligned with the past, those are the ones that underperformed.
      We’re not a cult. We’re not like, ‘OK, there’s one person who leads our party’. If we have a sitting president, she or he will be the leader of our party, but we should be a party of ideas and principles. And that’s what should lead us.
      What we’ve been lacking, perhaps, is that fulsome discussion,Read more:‘It’s time to move on’: have the US midterms finally loosened Trump’s grip on the Republican party?Read moreNancy Pelosi says Democrats are “still alive” in the race for control of the House of Representatives, but acknowledges the pathway to victory is narrow.The speaker’s party needs 218 seats in Congress to retain control of the chamber, and currently has 203. Republicans, despite losing several seats they were expected to win handily, have 211 and are closing in on the majority.On CNN’s State of the Union just now, Pelosi was asked specifically about the loss of four House seats in usually reliably blue New York, and whether they would determine control of the chamber.Pelosi said:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}You cannot make sweeping overviews the day after the election, just every district at a time. Our message, people over politics, lower costs, bigger paychecks, safer communities, served us well in the rest of the country.
      I want to salute President Biden for his campaign and President Obama, all of it raising the urgency of the election, and the awareness that people must vote and that they shouldn’t listen to those who say this is a foregone conclusion because of history, but it’s about the future and get out there and vote.
      We’re still alive. But again, the races are close.Pelosi, 82, would not be drawn about her own future if Republicans take the House, despite hinting last week that the attack on her husband would influence her decision about whether to retire. House leadership elections are on 30 November..css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}My members are asking me to consider [running], but that’s just through the eyes of the members.
      We are so completely focused on our political time… and not worrying about my future, but for the future for the American peopleBut she said she was hurt by response to the attack, which included offensive mockery:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}It wasn’t just the attack, there was a Republican reaction to it which was disgraceful. An attack is horrible. Imagine how it feels to was the one who was the target, and my husband paying the price, and the traumatic effect on our family.
      But that trauma is intensified by the ridiculous, disrespectful attitude that the Republicans had. There is no nobody disassociating themselves from the horrible response that they gave to it.One of the biggest midterms winners for the Democrats was Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, who was reelected by double digits. She’s just been on CNN’s State of the Union, speaking out against political violence she says extremists have been stoking.Whitmer herself was the victim of a kidnap plot that resulted in the conviction of several rightwing extremists, and called out a hammer attack by another on the husband of House speaker Nancy Pelosi:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}My opponent [election denier Tudor Dixon] was a conspiracy theorist, and she has regularly stoked politically violent rhetoric [and] undermined institutions. Whether it is aimed at me, or it is aimed at a Republican congressman like Ron Upton or Peter Meijer here in Michigan, it’s unacceptable.
      My heart goes out to the Pelosi family. I think that this is a moment where good people need to call this out and say we will not tolerate this in this country. Whitmer says the key to her victory was focusing on basics, while her challengers were concentrating on divisiveness:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}We stay focused on the fundamentals, whether it’s fixing the damn roads or making sure our kids are getting back on track after an incredible disruption in their learning, or just simply solving problems and being honest with the people.
      Governors can’t fix global inflation. But what we can do is take actions to keep more money in people’s pockets, protect our right to make our own decisions about our bodies.
      And all of this was squarely front and center for a lot of Michigan voters, and I suspect that’s probably true for voters across the country.Among the happiest Democrats at the party’s strong midterms performance is Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader who gets to keep his job for another two years.Speaking after Catherine Cortez Masto’s victory in Nevada kept the chamber in Democrat hands, Schumer told reporters the results were a “vindication” of the party’s agenda, and a rejection of extremist candidates and “divisive” rhetoric put forward by the Republican party:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}The election is a great win for the American people.
      Three things helped secure the Senate majority. One, our terrific candidates. Two, our agenda and accomplishments. And three, the American people rejected the anti-democratic, extremist Maga (Make America Great Again) Republicans.
      The American people soundly rejected the anti-democratic, authoritarian, nasty and divisive direction the Maga Republicans wanted to take our country, from the days of the big lie, which was pushed by so many, to the threats of violence and even violence itself against poll workers, election officials and electoral processes.
      And of course, the violence on January 6, all of that bothered the American people.
      And another thing that bothered them just as much, too many of the Republican leaders went along with that, didn’t rebut that violence, and some of them even aided and abetted the words of negativity.
      Where was the condemnation from the Republican leaders so often missing from so many of them?Americans have woken to the remarkable news that Democrats will retain control of the Senate for the next two years, secured by Catherine Cortez Masto’s projected victory over Republican Adam Laxalt in Nevada that was declared on Saturday night.Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer, who will remain Senate majority leader, hailed an achievement that appeared unthinkable amid talk of a red tsunami before last Tuesday’s midterm elections.Only the Senate race in Georgia, which heads to a 6 December runoff, remains to be settled. But the outcome cannot affect control of the chamber as Democrats now have 50 seats, plus vice president Kamala Harris’s tie breaking vote.
      Things are less clear in the House of Representatives, where a number of close races are yet to be called, and Republicans are closing in on a narrow majority.
      And in Arizona, we’re awaiting a winner in the tight and heated governor’s race between Democrat Katie Hobbs and extremist Republican Kari Lake.
      We’ll have plenty more news, commentary and reaction coming up in today’s live blog, including from senior officials in both parties.While we wait for the day to unfold, here’s a catch up from The Guardian’s Dani Anguiano in Las Vegas about Cortez Masto’s majority clinching victory:Catherine Cortez Masto wins Nevada Senate race to hold Democrat seatRead more More

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      Democrats celebrate retaining control of Senate as Republicans take stock

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      Democrats celebrate retaining control of Senate as Republicans take stockHouse control still undecided as Republicans lead and attention pivots to Florida, where Trump is expected to announce 2024 run As the balance of power in the US House of Representatives remained unresolved on Sunday, Democrats are celebrating the projection that they won control of the Senate, marking a significant victory for Joe Biden as Republicans backed by his presidential predecessor Donald Trump underperformed in key battleground states.While senior Democrats remained guarded Sunday about the chances of keeping control of both chambers of Congress, House speaker Nancy Pelosi hailed the party’s performance in the midterms following months of projections indicating heavy losses.“Who would have thought two months ago that this red wave would turn into a little tiny trickle, if that at all,” Pelosi told CNN.She added: “We’re still alive [for control of the House] but again the races are close. We don’t pray for victory… but you pray that God’s will will be done.”As of Sunday morning Republicans remained seven seats shy of the 218 needed to win control of the House, with Democrats requiring 14, an indication that a majority on either side will be slim. As internal discussions between House Republicans intensify over potential leadership roles, with minority leader Kevin McCarthy facing opposition from the far right freedom caucus, Pelosi remained circumspect about her own future, saying she would not make any announcements on her plans until after the House’s control is decided.“My decision will then be rooted in what the wishes of my family [are], and the wishes of my caucus,” Pelosi said, with reference to her husband Paul Pelosi’s ongoing recovery following an allegedly politically motivated violent burglary and attack at their family home in San Francisco last month. She added: “There are all kinds of ways to exert influence. The speaker has awesome power, but I will always have influence.”The Democrats were projected to maintain their control of the Senate on Saturday evening when a tight race in Nevada was called for the incumbent Catherine Cortez Mastro who defeated Adam Laxalt, a Trump-backed, former state attorney general.The result marks a substantial victory for the Biden administration’s agenda over the next two years, not only with regards to potential legislative negotiation but other powers which include appointments to the federal judiciary.Speaking to reporters in Cambodia during the Asean summit, Biden congratulated Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer but appeared to acknowledge how a Republican-controlled House might affect his agenda going forward.“We feel good about where we are,” Biden said. “And I know I’m a cockeyed optimist – I understand that – from the beginning, but I’m not surprised by the turnout.”Biden added that the party’s focus would move to the Senate runoff in Georgia next month, where incumbent Raphael Warnock will face Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker after neither candidate received over 50% of the vote. A victory for the Democrats in Georgia would hand them an outright majority of 51, without needing Biden’s vice-president Kamala Harris to break Senate ties in their favor.As fallout from the midterm elections continues, attention is likely to pivot to Florida next week, where Trump is expected to announce a 2024 run for the presidency at his private members’ club in Palm Beach.Although polling still indicates Trump is the preferred candidate among the Republican base, his support has shown signs of fracture after many of his endorsed candidates performed poorly last week. One poll released on Saturday showed Trump’s support declining by six points to 50%, while far-right governor Ron DeSantis, who cruised to re-election last week, saw support increase.On Sunday, Maryland’s outgoing Republican governor – Larry Hogan, a longtime Trump critic – urged the party to move away from the former president’s influence.“You know, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result,” Hogan told CNN. “And Donald Trump kept saying: ‘We’re going to be winning so much, we’ll get tired of winning’. I’m tired of losing. That’s all he’s done.”Nonetheless, Hogan – who himself is believed to be considering a run in 2024 – acknowledged that ousting Trump from the potential presidential nomination would be an uphill battle.“He’s still the 800-lb gorilla,” Hogan said. “It’s still a battle and it’s going to continue for the next few years. We’re still two years out from the next election, and … the dust is still settling from this one. I think it would be a mistake, as I mentioned Trump’s cost us the last three elections and I don’t want to see it happen a fourth time.”The midterms also proved to be an electoral rebuke to unfounded accusations of electoral fraud in the 2020 election, a baseless claim Trump has continued to press since losing the White House to Biden.Many Trump-endorsed candidates in major races, including the governor’s election in Pennsylvania and the Senate race in Arizona, had denied the 2020 election results. In both of these contests, as well as several other high-profile races, the Trump-backed candidate lost to Democrats by significant margins.Although the gubernatorial election in Arizona, which pits high-profile election denier Kari Lake against Democrat Katie Hobbs, remained too close to call on Sunday, a number of Democratic gubernatorial victors argued their wins marked a rejection of election conspiracy theories and rightwing extremism.Michigan’s governor Gretchen Whitmer, who won in a landslide against a Trump-endorsed election denier, said Sunday that she believed her victory marked a rejection of political violence in the state.“Good people need to call this out and say we will not tolerate this in this country,” Whitmer, who was targeted by a failed kidnapping plot in 2020, told CNN. “And perhaps part of that message was sent this election.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsDemocratsJoe BidenDonald TrumpUS SenateHouse of RepresentativesnewsReuse this content More

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      Democrat Cisco Aguilar defeats election denier in Nevada secretary of state race

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      Democrat Cisco Aguilar defeats election denier in Nevada secretary of state raceVictory over Republican Jim Marchant for state’s top elections post is significant win against efforts to sow doubt in US elections Cisco Aguilar, a Democrat, was elected Nevada’s top election official, beating Jim Marchant, a Republican who is linked to the QAnon sought to spread misinformation about the results of the 2020 race.His victory is a significant win against efforts to sow doubt in US elections, a growing force in the Republican party.The Nevada secretary of state race was one of the most competitive in the country and closely watched because of Marchant’s extreme views. It was also one of several contests in which Republican candidates who questioned the election results were running to be the top election official in their state.Marchant, a former state lawmaker, said during the campaign that if he and other like-minded secretary of states were elected, Donald Trump would be re-elected in 2024. He has also said that Nevada elections are run by a “cabal”, and that Nevadans haven’t elected a president in over a decade.He also has pushed Nevada counties to adopt risky and costly hand counts of ballots and leads the America First Secretary of State coalition, a group of secretary of state candidates running for key election positions who pledged to overturn the 2020 race.Aguilar had never run for elected office, but cast himself as a defender of Nevada’s democracy. His campaign emphasized the extremist threat Marchant posed. He far outraised Marchant and was much more present on the campaign trail.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022NevadaUS politicsDemocratsnewsReuse this content More

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      US midterms: no sign of 'red wave' as Democrats take Senate – video report

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      The Democrats have kept control of the Senate after the crucial race in Nevada was announced in their favour. The party’s midterm election performance widely beat expectations after pundits predicted a ‘red wave’ across the US for the Republicans. Since voting began on 8 November, Republican circles have been speculating over who to blame following Democrat wins. Donald Trump has been at the centre of the storm after he backed rightwing candidates in several key races who lost, including Mehmet Oz, defeated by John Fetterman in Pennsylvania

      Democrats retain control of Senate after crucial victory in Nevada
      New generation of candidates stakes claim to Democratic party’s future More

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      Democrats’ triumph may be miraculous but US is still split down the middle | Michael Cohen

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      Democrats’ triumph may be miraculous but US is still split down the middleMichael CohenThe midterms are a win for democracy but many Republicans await a third Trump bid Midterm elections in the United States are where the hopes and dreams of governing parties go to die. Since 1932, the party in power has lost on average 28 seats in the House of Representatives and four seats in the Senate. In 2018, two years after taking the White House and both Houses of Congress, Republicans lost 40 House seats and control of the chamber. In 2010, Democrats lost 63 seats. In 1994, it was 54 and eight Senate seats. Every two years, after electing a new president, voters, generally speaking, go to the polls with buyer’s remorse.But not this year. In a truly stunning outcome, Democrats reversed the historical trend lines and, at least for the time being, protected American democracy from the worst excesses of the Donald Trump-led Republican party.While all the votes still need to be tabulated, it appears that Democrats will keep control of the Senate and have an outside chance of maintaining their narrow majority in the House of Representatives. At the beginning of the year such a scenario was virtually unimaginable. Democrats were facing not only historical headwinds but also rising inflation, a teetering economy and an unpopular incumbent president. Traditionally, these are the kinds of political dynamics that portend a Republican-wave victory in November.But then in June the supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, removed a 50-year constitutional guarantee protecting reproductive health rights and virtually overnight turned American women into second-class citizens. Over the summer, congressional Democrats achieved a host of notable legislative successes and President Biden announced billions in student loan forgiveness, fulfilling a promise he’d made during the 2020 presidential campaign.By the autumn, the political winds shifted in the Democrats’ direction – and no issue loomed larger than abortion. In August, a referendum in ruby-red Kansas, which would have made it easier for Republicans in the state legislature to outlaw the procedure, lost by a whopping 18 points.Democratic campaign advisers took their cues from Kansas and made abortion the centrepiece of the autumn campaign. And in the states where Republicans’ victories could have led to potentially greater abortion restrictions, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, Democrats won decisive victories. In suburban districts, the new linchpin of the Democratic coalition, white female college graduates, outraged by the supreme court decision, propelled House Democratic candidates to victory in toss-up races.Republicans compounded the problem by nominating a host of Trump-endorsed first-time Senate and gubernatorial candidates. The closer a Republican was to Trump, the worse they did on Tuesday.Indeed, for months, political commentators had portrayed the 2022 election as potentially the end of democracy in the US. In state after state, election deniers, parroting Trump’s lies about the 2020 election, appeared poised to take office. Yet across the board they lost. On an even more positive note, while Trump still refuses to accept that he lost the presidency to Joe Biden, his enablers and sycophants in the GOP (“grand old party”) refused to follow the same script. Virtually every Republican who lost their election – including the election deniers – has conceded defeat, in the best sign for the strength of American democracy in quite some time.How the fall of Roe shattered Republicans’ midterm dreamsRead moreThat’s the good news, but like everything these days in American politics it’s virtually impossible for us to have nice things. While Trump is arguably the biggest loser of the 2022 campaign, his stranglehold over the Republican party is not ending just yet. This week, he will announce his third bid for the White House and, while plenty of Republican leaders wish he would go away, a great many rank-and-file Republicans don’t feel the same.It’s easy to criticise Trump for his lousy record of endorsements, but it’s not as if he held a gun to the collective head of Republicans and forced them to vote for his preferred candidates. These are still the types of politicians that Republican voters want and there is little reason to expect that they are prepared to jettison Trump.What makes matters even worse for Republicans is that no matter how the presidential nomination contest turns out, it’s a no-win situation. Democrats have won the past three US elections, in large measure by running against Trump. If he is again the Republican nominee there is no reason to expect that 2024 would play out any differently.What if Trump loses? That might actually be a worse outcome because if there’s one thing we know about the former president, it’s that he is a thin-skinned narcissist who doesn’t care about anybody but himself. If he loses the GOP presidential bid, say to the Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who just won a landslide re-election victory, one can expect that he will not respond well. There will not be a moment at the Republican national convention with Trump and DeSantis, their hands clasped together in party unity. Instead, Trump will handle himself probably no differently from the way he did after losing to Biden – again claiming fraud and denigrating DeSantis to his supporters. Indeed, Trump would probably prefer Biden wins re-election than watch DeSantis accomplish a feat that he could not.But beyond all that, the final numbers in the House and Senate tell a crucial story. Democrats will probably either maintain their 50-50 edge in the Senate or add one seat (the US vice-president, Kamala Harris, is the tie-breaking vote in the Senate). In the House, the most likely result is an incredibly narrow Republican advantage – somewhere between one and three seats. Governorships could be split evenly 25-25.America is almost perfectly divided between Democrats and Republicans and neither party can cobble together an effective majority. The 2022 midterms are, on the surface, a win for Democrats, but from a deeper perspective they have simply ratified the status quo of the US as a divided and divisive country.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022OpinionUS politicsDemocratsRepublicansJoe BidenDonald TrumpcommentReuse this content More

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      ‘It’s time to move on’: have the US midterms finally loosened Trump’s grip on the Republican party?

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      Analysis‘It’s time to move on’: have the US midterms finally loosened Trump’s grip on the Republican party?Chris McGreal in Columbus, Ohio and David Smith in WashingtonAfter the party came up short in another election, Ron DeSantis may be poised to become its new leader Sitting at the head table in a white and gold ballroom, beneath glistening chandeliers and an ornately corniced ceiling, Donald Trump looked sullen as midterm election results flashed up on a giant TV screen.Across Florida, 200 miles from his opulent Mar-a-Lago estate, the mood was quite different. In Tampa, Governor Ron DeSantis was celebrating his landslide re-election by repurposing lines from Winston Churchill.“We fight the woke in the legislature,” DeSantis declared as his photogenic young family looked on against a stars and stripes backdrop. “We fight the woke in the schools. We fight the woke in the corporations. We will never, ever surrender to the woke mob. Florida is where woke goes to die.”‘Ron DeSanctimonious’: angry Trump lashes out at Republican rival Read moreAs the jubilant crowd chanted “two more years!”, suggesting that DeSantis, not Trump, should run for US president in 2024, was this the moment that power slipped inexorably from one to the other – that the Republican crown passed from old king to young pretender?Some in the party are ready to declare it so. David Urban, a longtime Trump ally, told the Washington Post: “It is clear the center of gravity of the Republican party is in the state of Florida, and I don’t mean Mar-a-Lago.”If such a shift has taken place, it did so gradually, then suddenly. Since he descended an escalator at his New York headquarters in June 2015, Trump has dominated and defined the Republican party, crushing rivals in the Republican primary then eking out a victory over Hillary Clinton to seize the White House.But the party of Trump suffered drubbings at the ballot box in 2018 and 2020. And despite forecasts of a “red wave” in 2022, it fell short again. From Michigan to Pennsylvania, novice candidates endorsed by the former president proved they were unready for prime time and too extreme for a wary and weary electorate.Finally, some Republicans admitted what everyone else could see: Trump is an albatross around the party’s neck. Virginia’s lieutenant governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, once a vocal supporter, told the Fox Business channel: “The voters have spoken and they have said that they want a different leader. And a true leader understands when they have become a liability. A true leader understands that it’s time to step off the stage. It is time to move on.”Rupert Murdoch already has, it seems. “Trumpty Dumpty”, boomed the front page of his tabloid the New York Post. “Trump is the Republican party’s biggest loser” was the verdict of the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board. A column on the Fox News website proclaimed: “Ron DeSantis is the new Republican party leader. Republicans are ready to move on without Donald Trump.”Indeed, if Trump was the big loser of the night, DeSantis was the big winner. His victory by nearly 20 percentage points was a personal vindication that appeared to put Florida, once the quintessential swing state, beyond Democrats’ reach for a generation.His stunning wins in big, majority Latino counties, including Miami-Dade and Osceola, set him up to make the case that, as a presidential candidate, he could repeat the formula in states such as as Arizona, Nevada and Texas. “We have rewritten the political map,” he told supporters.A DeSantis 2024 campaign would also promise generational change. At 44, the former navy lawyer and congressman would be similar in age to John F Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama when they ran for the White House, a sharp contrast from 76-year-old Trump or Joe Biden, who is turning 80 this month.Crucially, DeSantis could sell himself as Trump 2.0, an upgrade committed to the same “America first” policy agenda, media sparring and liberal-baiting (he recently flew Venezuelan migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard) but without the liability of multiple federal, state and congressional investigations.He could also break from Trump over the coronavirus pandemic, contending that he kept Florida open while the then president was urging lockdowns. Tim Miller, former communications director for Jeb Bush 2016, said: “He would try to paint Trump as somebody that lost, is a loser and is costing the party. He’d probably criticise Trump for not being stronger on Covid and say he should have fired [Dr Anthony] Fauci.”DeSantis is especially popular with conservatives for taking the lead on “culture war” issues related to race and gender. Last year he got into a spat with the Walt Disney Company over his support of the controversial law, nicknamed “don’t say gay” by opponents, prohibiting the teaching of gender identity concepts to young children.But if you come at the king, you best not miss. Trump has spent months preparing to strangle the DeSantis campaign at birth. At a campaign rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, last weekend, he casually rolled out a nickname, “Ron DeSanctimonious”, hoping to brand his opponent as he has so many before.On Tuesday, menacingly, he told Fox News: “I think if he runs, he could hurt himself very badly. I really believe he could hurt himself badly. I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering – I know more about him than anybody – other than, perhaps, his wife.”And on Thursday, with DeSantis buzz reaching a crescendo, Trump lashed out in a lengthy and angry statement berating Fox News and other Murdoch-controlled media for going “all in for Governor Ron DeSanctimonious DeSantis”, whom he called “an average REPUBLICAN Governor with great Public Relations”, as he again took credit for DeSantis’s 2018 win.“Well, in terms of loyalty and class, that’s really not the right answer,” he wrote, comparing the race to his winning 2016 campaign. “We’re in exactly the same position now. They will keep coming after us, MAGA, but ultimately, we will win. Put America First and, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”Soon after, he invited reporters to a “Special Announcement” at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday night, presumably confirming that he is mounting a third consecutive bid for the White House. Some allies were quick to offer pre-endorsements, with Elise Stefanik, the Republican chair in the House of Representatives, declaring herself on team Trump.JD Vance, who won a Senate senate race in Ohio with Trump’s backing, did likewise. And at a rally for Vance in Dayton the night before the elections, many supporters sporting Make America Great Again hats and T-shirts were hoping for Trump to announce his candidacy there and then.But even within a crowd of enthusiastic fans there were those who had doubts. Mandy Young said: “I think Trump was a great president but I don’t think he can win again. He is too divisive. The independents who voted for him before won’t vote for him again because of all the investigations.“Also, I don’t like the way he called DeSantis ‘DeSanctimonious’. I think DeSantis would be a great president. It makes me think Trump doesn’t care about the Republican party winning, only himself. He should step back. He would still have a lot of influence as a respected godfather giving advice.”On election day, Jeffrey Weisman, a consistent Republican supporter because he says the party is better for the economy and his jewellery store business, voted at the biggest Greek Orthodox church in Columbus, Ohio.Weisman supported Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections but would prefer the former president stayed out of the next one. “I like DeSantis. Having Trump going out there as well I think will hurt DeSantis’s chances. So for that reason, I do not want Trump to run,” he said.The strengths and weaknesses of Trump’s influence were on display in Ohio’s election for US senator. The former president’s endorsement of Vance pulled the bestselling author of Hillbilly Elegy and venture capitalist from the back of the field in the Republican primaries and won him the nomination. But Trump’s backing then dragged down support for Vance in Tuesday’s general election, even if he won.Mark R Weaver, a Republican strategist in Columbus, who has worked on several hundred state and national campaigns, said that has implications for any challenge from DeSantis both in Ohio and across the country.“Trump’s ability to improve a candidate’s chances is weakening. He’s no longer able to guarantee or even predict someone he endorses is going to win. Whatever charm he had has worn off, certainly in the general elections. In the primaries, he can still be a big factor. In Ohio he was.”Weaver said that while Trump would still win a Republican contest for the presidential nomination against DeSantis if it were held today, that may not be true by the time the primaries actually begin in early 2024.He said: “I have noticed a slow descent of Donald Trump’s popularity amongst Republicans. I’ve noticed a rapid ascent of Ron DeSantis’s popularity.“If those two trajectories continue, Trump slowly getting weaker and people looking for better options, and DeSantis quickly getting stronger and having more people support him, the trajectory lines could cross right about March of 2024. That sounds like a crazy statement right now but if those trajectories cross, Ron DeSantis can beat Trump in the primaries in 2024.”Trump’s political obituary has been written by Republican elites countless times before only to prove wishful thinking. An Access Hollywood tape in which he boasted about groping women’s private parts couldn’t do it. His half-hearted condemnation of a white supremacist march in Charlottesville, Virginia, couldn’t do it. His proposal that injecting bleach might cure coronavirus couldn’t do it. Even his incitement of a coup attempt at the US Capitol couldn’t do it. Can DeSantis do it by appealing to the bottom line: electability?Tara Setmayer, a senior adviser to the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump group, said: “I’ve always said that the Republican party would not fully respond to offloading Trump until they lost enough elections. Political actors are single seekers in re-election, and once their power is threatened, that is usually where a course correction happens.“But they’ve gotten themselves into quite a quagmire with Donald Trump because he still has a solid 30%, at least, base of support, and that is large enough to still create headaches for the party if they try to offload him.”Setmayer, a former Republican communications director on Capitol Hill, added: “They also do not have a formidable enough heir apparent. It is not Ron DeSantis. Ron DeSantis is a paper tiger who was created and propped up by Donald Trump. He does not have the political talent, the charisma or the toughness to take on the onslaught coming his way from Trumpworld. It’s already beginning.”Joe Walsh, a former Republican congressman from Illinois, agreed. “Trump would eat him alive,” he said. “Right now Trump is still the dominant player in the Republican party. Most of the base is still with him. DeSantis is utterly untested. He’s weird. He has zero charisma. He’s thin skinned. He can’t think on his feet. He’s never been tested and he’s easily offended. Trump will do and say anything.”Walsh, who challenged Trump in the 2020 Republican primary, added: “Trump’s the king. If you try to slay the king and you don’t, your career is over. That’s a huge, huge risk a 44-year-old guy like DeSantis would be taking.”They are not alone in arguing that, while DeSantis is like Trump without the chaos, he is also Trump without the charisma. The former president’s rallies are rollicking, knockabout affairs that give his fans community, entertainment and laughs. DeSantis is said to be unskilled in retail politics and somewhat humourless.Jennifer Mercieca, a professor in the communication and journalism department at Texas A&M University, said: “Donald Trump is an authoritarian PT Barnum. He’s able to keep our attention and curiosity. He’s got great comedic timing. He has a good sense of drama and Ron DeSantis doesn’t have that kind of easily translatable appeal for media audiences. His affect is flat. He’s not as entertaining.“The thing about Donald Trump is that he’s really entertaining. He’s good at keeping our attention and primarily he does that through outrage and things that are very negative for politics and political problem solving. But in terms of a matchup between those two, I would put money on Trump.”Trump has shown himself perfectly capable of going scorched earth and burning the whole party down. A ferociously nasty bareknuckle primary fight between him and DeSantis will have Democrats reaching for the popcorn. At a valedictory press conference at the White House, Biden seemed amused at the prospect. “It’ll be fun watching them take on each other,” he said.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022Donald TrumpRon DeSantisRepublicansFloridaUS elections 2024US politicsanalysisReuse this content More