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      'You can’t lose a single vote': can Biden navigate the 50-50 Senate?

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      Democrats may have reclaimed control of the Senate with two victories in Georgia but their majority is slim and will herald an era where every senator wields an inordinate amount of power over the vital upper chamber.In other words, every senator will be the deciding vote in a situation that has happened only a few other times in the chamber’s history and is likely to prove a tricky challenge for the incoming president, Joe Biden – albeit one preferable to dealing with continued Republican control.That dynamic is a shift from recent years in which control of the chamber has been more concretely with Republicans or Democrats. But the addition of the incoming senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock of Georgia means that the Senate will be split evenly 50-50, a divide that’s happened only three times in American history.Democrats control the chamber only through Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris who will act as the tie-breaking vote when she is sworn in on 20 January. Her replacement in her California senate seat, Alex Padilla, will join the chamber quickly after that so Democratic control starts on 21 January.The split means any senator can gum up legislation making its way through the chamber by withholding a vote, possibly until other tweaks have been made.“It only takes one senator to object and that doesn’t mean that you’re going to have the power to ultimately stop something, but being in control of how much time something takes gives you enormous power,” said Joe Britton, a former Senate Democratic chief of staff. “Especially at 1pm on a Thursday afternoon.”For Democrats, that’s the best outcome after disappointing results in a handful of Senate races they had thought they would win in the November elections. It means, though, that two separate groups of Republican and Democratic “moderates” are likely to command significant attention.Looming over the chamber’s business will be elections in 2022 in which two senators, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Raphael Warnock of Georgia are up for re-election after just two years as they are completing their predecessors’ term. Because they will have to run in conservative-leaning states early in their Senate careers they are likely to steer clear of supporting very liberal legislation making its way through the chamber. Both are expected to fall among the more moderate wing of the party alongside Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia.If any senator gained influence from the even Senate split it’s Manchin, the most conservative member of the Democratic caucus. Manchin offered a preview of how he planned to navigate the Senate.“For the sake of the country we all love, we must commit to solving the serious problems facing our nation,” the West Virginia senator said in a statement on Wednesday. “Above all, we must avoid the extreme and polarizing rhetoric that only further divides the American people – I will work tirelessly to make sure we do. It is time for Americans to move closer together.”Besides Warnock and Ossoff, the incoming senator John Hickenlooper of Colorado styled himself as a moderate Democrat during his short-lived 2020 presidential campaign and his time as governor before that. Biden’s incoming administration has also indicated plans to focus initially on a Covid relief bill and a large bipartisan infrastructure bill – not non-starters for liberals but hardly proposals from a progressive wishlist.“You’re not going to see the [supreme] court expanded. You’re probably won’t see the legislative filibuster ended and those kind of things,” said former senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, who represented the moderate wing of the Democratic party during his time in the Senate.All legislation in the Senate except for reconciliation bills – which are meant to deal with tax and spending issues – need a filibuster-proof 60 votes to pass. So the question for most legislation is how many more additional senators beyond 50 can a proposal get.Defections and bipartisan support have become rare in Congress and usually only a few senators are even willing to openly discuss bucking their party. With his slight majority, the incoming majority leader, Chuck Schumer, of New York will still have to keep all or most of his caucus in line and win over a few Republicans.“I think Chuck Schumer has the capacity to be the savviest legislative leader since [Lyndon Baines Johnson],” Bayh added. “But even LBJ had more than a 50-50 split to work with so if anyone can make it work it’s Chuck. It’s going to be really difficult when you have the left pushing the envelope, but in a world where the Republicans are unlikely to give you any votes for what the left wants, you can’t lose a single vote.”And then there’s the next presidential election in 2024.Senators and their staffs are bracing for 2024 Republican presidential hopefuls in the chamber to try to position themselves to run in a large and unwieldy Republican primary. Democrats could also have a divided primary contest in the next presidential election cycle if Biden decides not to run, although Harris would be the heavy favorite in that scenario.After the Republican senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Josh Hawley of Missouri led a revolt against certifying Biden’s victory, it’s unclear if either of them will be able to position themselves as frontrunners in a Republican primary. Both have been mentioned as potential candidates. The revolt resulted in a swath of rioters breaking into the Capitol.“You’re going to have all these people that are just posturing and maneuvering and each one of them is either a dealbreaker or an arsonist in the mode of Ted Cruz when Obama was president,” said a former Republican chief of staff. “And so you’re going to have all these little arsonists asking ‘how can I make a name for myself?’ and there’s going to be less Lindsey Grahams from the Obama time. There’s no John McCains. Mitt Romney will try. There’s going to be less of those guys.” More

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      World leaders react with horror to 'disgraceful' storming of US Capitol

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      World leaders have reacted with horror to the chaos that has consumed Washington, describing Wednesday’s insurrectionist attempt on the US Capitol building as “disgraceful”, “pitiful”, and “shocking”.
      Prime ministers and presidents around the world urged US president Donald Trump and his supporters to accept the result of November’s presidential election. President-elect Joe Biden’s administration is set to be inaugurated in 14 days.
      The US Congress on Thursday certified Biden as the next president, while a statement from Trump promised an “orderly transition” to a new administration even though “I totally disagree with the outcome of the election, and the facts bear me out.”
      “A fundamental rule of democracy is that, after elections, there are winners and losers,” said Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel. “Both have to play their role with decency and responsibility so that democracy itself remains the winner.”
      Merkel said Trump had “not conceded his defeat since November, and that has prepared the atmosphere in which such violent events are possible”. The German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, denounced the scenes as “the result of lies and yet more lies, of division and contempt for democracy, of hatred and rabble-rousing, including from the very highest level”. More

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      The long list of Republicans who voted to reject election results

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      The Senate and the House of Representatives convened on Wednesday to perform what is traditionally seen as a purely ceremonial vote: to certify each state’s presidential election results.
      At a rally before the vote, Donald Trump continued to baselessly insist that the election results – which he lost to Democrat challenger Joe Biden – were rigged and the US president helped instigate a mob to storm the US Capitol building and halt the process.
      The attack shocked many Americans but even after the pro-Trump mob breached the Capitol, a handful of Republican senators and more than a hundred Republican representatives continued to back Trump’s false claims and objected to certifying the results in Arizona and Pennsylvania.
      The list of Republican lawmakers who objected to both results includes Texas senator Ted Cruz, who ran against Trump in 2016 presidential election only to have Trump suggest that Cruz’s father was involved in president John F Kennedy’s assassination. It also include Missouri senator Josh Hawley who is seen as a potential 2024 presidential candidate. And it includes the majority of Republican House members.
      Here’s the full list.
      Full list of people rejecting certification More

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      How Black voters lifted Georgia Democrats to Senate runoff victories

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      Black voters showed up in record numbers for Georgia’s Senate runoff election on Tuesday, handing the Democratic Senate candidates the Rev Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff decisive victories against the Republican incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively.According to the Associated Press, more than 4.4m votes were cast, about 88% of the number who voted in November’s contest, when turnout was 68% overall.Just weeks after flipping the conservative stronghold in the general election, local strategists and community organizers across the state are being credited with once again galvanizing a voting bloc critical in delivering Democrats’ victory.“Black runoff turnout was phenomenal and the [Donald] Trump base just couldn’t keep up,” the political analyst Dave Wasserman tweeted shortly after being one of the first to call the race for Warnock.Tuesday’s win makes the senior pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist church the first Black senator from Georgia and the first Black Democrat in a former Confederate state since Reconstruction. The milestone is considered by some analysts to be a factor in the surge in participation.Maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise, given the stakes of the race and the political moment, but this was a remarkable and high turnout. I mean, yea, there was probably slightly more Trump vote dropoff–see the result–but the turnout in >80% Trump areas was still at 88% of general— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) January 6, 2021
      Black voters in the state were the deciding force in both Democratic victories, particularly in urban and rural communities with large Black populations. Typically, these groups are less likely to vote in state and local contests than their white counterparts.The runoffs garnered national attention after Black voters – along with new Georgia residents of all races – successfully flipped the state from reliably Republican to a competitive purple in November, with the Democrat Joe Biden narrowly winning over the incumbent president by more than 11,000 votes.“The margins are so small that every action, including your vote, matters and will make a difference,” Nse Ufot, CEO of the New Georgia Project, told CNN. “Black voters got that message. Black voters recognized that we need to complete the task.”According to exit polls, turnout for the Senate races was high overall, reaching more than 80% of the turnout in the November general election. That rate was slightly higher in predominantly Black districts.Roughly 93% of Black voters supported Ossoff and Warnock. Ossoff earned 92% of Black voters in Tuesday’s contest compared with 87% in November. According to NBC data, Warnock won 92% of Black voters against Loeffler.Meanwhile, although Republicans Loeffler and Perdue received 71% of the white vote, turnout was slightly down from the general election.“Democrats need to get at least 30% of the white vote to be competitive in any race,” Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, told the Guardian. “But Black voter turnout, when reaching record levels, will ultimately decide the race every time.”Gillespie noted that as Georgia continues to attract young, more liberal populations, residents will see many competitive election cycles to come. According to Pew Research Center, the Black voting bloc has grown to make up a third of Georgia’s electorate in the last two decades. Other analysts also credit new Black residents with making more southern states like North Carolina, and Texas and Florida more competitive.Black women did this—but this isn’t just “Black Girl Magic.” This is the result of pure organizing, labor, and love that Black women have poured into GA.Gratitude to every one of my sisters who willed the possibilities of this moment into existence. We see you and we love you.— Cori Bush (@CoriBush) January 6, 2021
      Front and center amid post-election praise are the former gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and the Black Voters Matter founder LaTosha Brown, who, along with Black grassroots organizations, have led campaigns to reach hundreds of thousands of Georgia residents since November’s general election.“Across our state, we roared,” Abrams tweeted as votes were counted, calling on Georgians to “celebrate the extraordinary organizers, volunteers, canvassers & tireless groups that haven’t stopped going”.Adopting a strategy that Brown called “meeting voters where they are”, voting rights activists spent the last weeks traveling to typically low-turnout areas to knock on doors, register voters and combat an onslaught of conservative disinformation attempts.Many advocates say these get-out-the-vote efforts were effective in driving Black voters who otherwise wouldn’t have voted, or perhaps didn’t in November. According to a state vote tracker, more than 100,000 Georgians who didn’t vote in the presidential requested a mail-in ballot for the runoff.Georgia residents largely rejected Republicans Loeffler and Perdue, who backed Trump’s conspiracy theories questioning the election’s legitimacy. Just this week, leaked audio revealed that the president had urged Georgia’s secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, to “find” votes that would overturn the election.The president and campaign surrogates have launched dozens of legal challenges, primarily in cities like Atlanta, Philadelphia and Detroit, alleging fraud.In the same vein, both Loeffler and Perdue have refused to concede so far, challenging election results and calling on officials to count every legal vote. Meanwhile, Raffensperger has maintained that the election was secure and the results accurate.Activists argue schemes to toss out votes in primarily Black, Democratic strongholds follow a history of Republican efforts to disenfranchise primarily African Americans.For Georgia activists, Black voters flipping the state and reclaiming Democratic control of the Senate reinforces African Americans’ influence in the conservative south when they show up to the polls.“Black voters matter,” Brown succinctly tweeted. More

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      Jon Ossoff wins Georgia runoff election, giving Democrats control of Senate

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      [embedded content]
      The Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff has won his Senate runoff election, giving Democrats control of the Senate for the opening of Joe Biden’s presidency.
      Ossoff’s victory against David Perdue, was called by the Associated Press late on Wednesday, and follows fellow Democrat Raphael Warnock’s victory against incumbent Kelly Loeffler.
      With the victories of Ossoff and Warnock, the US Senate is now 50-50.
      Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris will serve as the tie-breaking 51st vote, giving Democrats control of the chamber for the first time since 2015.
      A pastor who spent the past 15 years leading the Atlanta church where Martin Luther King Jr preached, Warnock’s victory makes him the first Black senator in his state’s history.
      The results were a stinging rebuke of Donald Trump, who made one of his final trips in office to Georgia to rally his loyal base behind the state’s Republican candidates.
      In an emotional address early on Wednesday, Warnock vowed to work for all Georgians whether they voted for him or not, citing his personal experience with the American dream. His mother, he said, used to pick “somebody else’s cotton” as a teenager.
      “The other day, because this is America, the 82-year-old hands that used to pick somebody else’s cotton picked her youngest son to be a United States senator,” he said. “Tonight, we proved with hope, hard work and the people by our side, anything is possible.”
      The Democrats were propelled to victory in Senate runoff elections by Black voters, young voters and new arrivals to the rapidly diversifying state, a coalition just strong enough to topple a long-dominant GOP and take control of the US Senate.

      Black voters cast 32% of the ballots, a slight increase from the presidential election two months ago, according to AP VoteCast. As in November, almost all – 94% – of those votes went for Democrats. Black voters accounted for about 60% of ballots for Democrats, according to the survey of 3,700 voters in the runoff elections.
      Voters under the age of 45 also broke for Democrats, as did suburban voters, women, low-income voters and voters who have lived in the state fewer than five years, a group that cast about 60% of their votes for Democrats.
      The coalition closely mirrored the one that handed Georgia’s electoral college votes to President-elect Joe Biden, the first Democrat to win the state since 1992. In defeating Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, Democrats will have half the seats in the chamber, leaving Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris to serve as tie-breaker.
      The high-stakes runoffs drew hundreds of millions of dollars, media attention and a massive organizing effort. The result was a game of inches – both Republicans and Democrats largely held their voters from November, the survey showed, but Democrats did just slightly better in pushing their voters to the polls.
      The GOP candidates won an overwhelming majority – almost three-quarters – of white voters and 60% of voters 65 and older. They also captured majorities from voters earning $75,000 or more. That coalition in the recent past likely would have been enough to keep Perdue and Loeffler in the Senate. But shifting demographics and an energized Democratic party have turned the tables. More