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      Election Day 2023: What to Watch in Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky and More

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      Voters in Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, Mississippi and elsewhere head to the polls on Tuesday for off-year elections that will offer clues to the continued potency of abortion against the drag of President Biden’s low approval ratings as politicians prepare for the coming presidential election year.The results may determine whether Democrats find some reassurances on their approach to key issues like abortion, which was a bright spot for the party in a new New York Times/Siena poll that showed Donald J. Trump leading Mr. Biden in five critical swing states one year out.Here is what to watch:Abortion access vs. Biden’s unpopularity in Virginia and Kentucky.All 140 seats in Virginia’s General Assembly are on the ballot Tuesday, with the Democratic-leaning state’s relatively popular Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, hoping to capture the State Senate and secure total Republican control of Richmond. That feat would propel Mr. Youngkin’s national ambitions.But Democrats are running on abortion rights, warning that G.O.P. control would end abortion access in the last state in the Southeast.Mr. Youngkin is testing a compromise that national Republicans hope will be a winning message after so many party losses since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion: a ban on abortion access after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exemptions for rape, incest and the life of a mother. Democrats say that is a ruse, but they must overcome the weight of Mr. Biden’s unpopularity.A similar dynamic is playing out in Kentucky, where Democrats have leaned heavily on the abortion issue, especially to tarnish the Republican challenger for governor, Daniel Cameron, who, as the current state attorney general, has had to defend Kentucky’s total abortion ban. The incumbent Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, remains popular, with a family name (his father, Steve Beshear, was also a governor) and a moderate reputation that have insulated him against attacks that he is soft on crime and supports “radical” transgender rights.Mr. Beshear has led consistently in the polls, but in a state that former President Donald J. Trump won by about 26 percentage points in 2020, the “D” by Mr. Beshear’s name is a liability. The final polls of the cycle pointed to a dead heat.Will voters in Ohio back abortion rights?Ohio has been a reliably Republican state since the rise of Mr. Trump, but a referendum to establish a right to abortion under the state constitution could be the purest test on Tuesday of where even Republicans stand on the issue. Or not.Abortion rights groups have been on a winning streak with ballot measures that put the question of abortion straight to voters since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, doing away with constitutional protections for abortion rights. Even in deeply Republican states like Kansas, voters have overwhelmingly supported abortion access. But abortion opponents scored some important victories before the referendum on Tuesday. In this contest, voters will have to affirmatively vote “yes” on a constitutional change; Ohioans have historically tended to reject ballot amendments.While the amendment would establish “a right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions,” it also explicitly allows the state to ban abortion after viability, or around 23 weeks, when the fetus can survive outside the uterus, unless the pregnant woman’s doctor finds the procedure “is necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.” But in the ballot box, voters will see a summary from the secretary of state, Frank LaRose, a Republican who opposes abortion, which says the amendment “would always allow an unborn child to be aborted at any stage of pregnancy, regardless of viability.”Both sides of the issue have accused the other of misinformation and underhanded tactics.In Mississippi, a test of expanding Medicaid — and scandal.Mississippi’s abortion ban brought down Roe v. Wade when the Supreme Court sided with Thomas E. Dobbs, Mississippi’s health officer, in Dobbs v. Jackson.The Deep South state now faces a pitched battle for governor, but the candidates have not made abortion the central issue, since the incumbent Republican governor, Tate Reeves, and his Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley, both oppose it.Instead, Mr. Presley’s surprisingly potent challenge has been fueled by a push to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act and a public corruption scandal that saw the misspending of $94 million in federal funds intended for Mississippi’s poor on projects like a college volleyball facility pushed by the retired superstar quarterback Brett Favre.Mr. Reeves was never directly implicated in the scandal, but he did fire an investigating attorney just after the lawyer issued a subpoena that could have turned up details about the involvement of prominent Mississippians“If you think Tate Reeves will take on corruption, I’ve got some beachfront property in Nettleton to sell you,” Mr. Presley said in a debate this month, referring to his hometown in the state’s northeast.Mr. Presley, a member of the Mississippi Public Service Commission, has a unique kind of name recognition; he is a second cousin of Elvis Presley.But in Mississippi, Mr. Reeves has three advantages that could prove impenetrable: incumbency, the “R” next to his name on the ballot, and the endorsement of Mr. Trump, who won the state in 2020 by nearly 17 percentage points.Ballot initiatives, from wealth to weed.Voters will make numerous direct decisions on Tuesday, bypassing elected officials. Beyond abortion, the most watched initiative will be, again, in Ohio, where voters will decide whether cannabis should be legalized for recreational use. If voters agree, Ohio would become the 24th state to legalize marijuana. That could put pressure on Congress to move forward legislation at least to ease restrictions on interstate banking for legal cannabis businesses.Texans will decide the fate of 14 constitutional amendments, including one that would bar the state from imposing a “wealth” tax, or a tax on the market value of assets owned but not sold. Liberal activists and some prominent Democratic senators, such as Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, have pushed such taxes as the only way to tap the wealth of billionaires, whose income taxes are minimal but whose vast, untaxed wealth supports lavish lifestyles.Texans will also decide whether to raise the mandatory retirement age of state judges to 79, from 75. More

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      Can Glenn Youngkin Save the G.O.P. from Trumpism?

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      It’s a perfect fall weekend in Virginia horse country, about two weeks before Election Day, and the American Legion hall in Middleburg is decked out for a rally featuring Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is not on the ballot but is stumping hard for his fellow Republicans. His name is everywhere: on a bright blue backdrop behind the stage, on the swag in the front room, on the side of a bus out front with the slogan “Strengthening the Spirit of Virginia Together.” The bus is a high-end prop for Mr. Youngkin’s “Secure Your Vote” tour, which has him crisscrossing the state to promote early voting. His attempt to reverse Republican mistrust of early and absentee voting is one way the governor stands apart from the leader of his party, Donald Trump. But it is not the only way.Looking over the crowd, you can’t help but notice a dearth of Trump paraphernalia. One woman has on a blue “Nikki Haley for president” vest, and another one is rocking a “Moms for Liberty” T-shirt. Virginia’s Republican base has plenty of Trump love, yet it’s not a visibly MAGA-rific gathering. This makes a certain political sense: Joe Biden won this county in 2020, as did Mr. Youngkin’s Democratic rival in 2021. But the fact that Mr. Youngkin is aggressively campaigning in blue areas is not only a sign of his popularity, it differentiates him from Mr. Trump, who largely sticks to safe conservative spaces.As Mr. Youngkin bounds into the hall in his signature red vest — smile beaming, cheeks ruddy from the wind — he radiates the upbeat, hunky-P.T.A.-dad vibe that helped carry him to victory in 2021. His voice ranges from an urgent whisper to a gargly rasp as he raves not about his personal grievances or some vision of American carnage, but about the “common sense” plans he and his party have for Virginia. He spotlights a handful of policy areas — jobs, tax relief, crime, mental health care, education — and contends that Republicans, and Virginians, “win” when sensible people come together. Mr. Youngkin’s sales pitch casts the G.O.P. as a party filled with practical folks who want to get stuff done — as opposed to the Democrats, he charges, who “just want to sell fear.”Remember that “fear” line. It’s revealing about Mr. Youngkin’s brand of politics, but it’s also about as edgy as the guy gets. His performance is a far cry from MAGA.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.We are confirming your access to this article, this will take just a moment. However, if you are using Reader mode please log in, subscribe, or exit Reader mode since we are unable to verify access in that state.Confirming article access.If you are a subscriber, please  More

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      Abortion Is on the Ballot in Tuesday’s Elections, Giving a Preview for 2024

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      Elections in Kentucky, Ohio and Virginia will give an early preview of how abortion will shape the political landscape in 2024, and the effectiveness of both parties’ approaches.Abortion has emerged as a defining fault line of this year’s elections, with consequential contests in several states on Tuesday offering fresh tests of the issue’s political potency nearly 18 months after the Supreme Court ended a federal right to an abortion.The decision overturning Roe v. Wade scrambled American politics in 2022, transforming a longstanding social conflict into an electoral battering ram that helped drive Democrats to critical victories in the midterm races. Now, as abortion restrictions and bans in red states have become reality, the issue is again on the ballot, both explicitly and implicitly, in races across the country.In Kentucky, Democrats are testing whether abortion can provide a political advantage even in a red state, as Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, has used the state’s near-total ban on abortions — which was triggered by the fall of Roe — to bludgeon his Republican opponent as an extremist. In Ohio, a socially conservative state, a ballot question that would enshrine abortion rights in the State Constitution will measure the extent of the country’s political pivot toward abortion rights.And in Virginia, the only Southern state without an abortion ban, Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, is trying to flip the script in the state’s legislative elections, casting Democrats as “extreme” and saying his party supports a “common-sense position” — a 15-week ban.The contests give an early preview of how abortion will shape the political landscape in next year’s presidential and congressional elections — and the effectiveness of both parties’ approaches.Strategists across the political spectrum agree that abortion remains highly energizing for the Democratic coalition, particularly in states where Republicans could pass further restrictions. In Pennsylvania, where the parties are battling over a State Supreme Court seat, even a gun control advocacy group began ads backing the Democratic candidate by raising alarms about the future of abortion rights — a tacit nod to the issue’s resonance.“It’s still a very, very powerful issue to folks, both in terms of motivating Democrats to vote and as a very fruitful persuasion issue for swing voters,” said Angela Kuefler, a longtime Democratic pollster working on the proposed Ohio amendment.What remains less clear is how far into conservative areas Democrats’ arguments will be effective and whether Republicans can deflect some of the attacks.That’s what Republicans are trying to do in Virginia, where G.O.P. candidates like State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant, an OB-GYN running in one of the state’s most hotly contested races for a newly redrawn seat, have aired numerous ads on the issue.In one ad, she says, “I don’t support an abortion ban,” even though she supports a 15-week ban on the procedure with exceptions for rape, incest, the woman’s health and cases of several fetal anomalies. She argues that a 15-week restriction is not a ban but rather “legislation that reflects compassionate common sense.”“Every Republican in a swing district knows the Democrat playbook that’s going to be run against them,” said Liesl Hickey, a Republican strategist and ad maker working on the race. “The abortion issue can either define you, or you can define it in your campaign.”In Ohio, a red state with a history of opposition to abortion rights, Democrats are pushing a referendum that would enshrine abortion rights in the State Constitution.Julie Carr Smyth/Associated PressSince Roe was overturned, Democrats have prevailed in six out of six ballot measures that put the question of abortion straight to voters. This year, national groups backing both sides have poured tens of millions of dollars into the Ohio contest, transforming an off-year ballot measure into one of the most important races this fall.A victory in Ohio would provide further fuel for abortion rights efforts next year. That will be especially true in pivotal battleground states where campaigns are already underway, including Arizona, Florida and Missouri, said Amy Natoce, a spokeswoman for Protect Women Ohio, a group founded by national anti-abortion groups to oppose the amendment.“We know that all eyes are on Ohio right now,” she said. “States that are considering similar constitutional amendments are looking to us.”In Kentucky, Mr. Beshear is further testing the limits of where abortion can mobilize a Democratic coalition. Since Roe ended, the state has become engulfed in a political battle over how abortion should be regulated. A trigger law that took effect immediately after the decision banned abortion in nearly all circumstances, except to save the life of the woman or prevent severe injury. Efforts by abortion providers to block the ban in court were denied.Last fall, voters rejected a ballot measure that would have amended the state’s Constitution to ensure that no right to an abortion was in the document.In his campaign ads, Mr. Beshear has focused on how his Republican opponent, Daniel Cameron, supports a near-total ban.The Beshear campaign has aired some of the cycle’s most searing spots, including a straight-to-camera testimonial from a woman who was raped as a child by her stepfather. She says in the ad that Mr. Cameron would force child victims to carry the babies of their rapists.“We have the most extreme law in the country, where victims of rape and incest, some as young as 9 years old, have no options,” Mr. Beshear said this past week in Richmond, Ky. “The people of Kentucky have enough empathy to believe that those little girls ought to have options.”After the ad aired, Mr. Cameron, the state attorney general, flipped his position and said that he would support carving an exception in state law in instances of rape or incest. Even if Mr. Beshear wins re-election, he would most likely struggle to change the state’s abortion law because Republicans control the Legislature.Courtney Norris, a spokeswoman for Mr. Cameron, said in a statement, “Andy mischaracterizes and flat-out lies about Daniel’s position on a number of issues in an attempt to deflect attention away from his failures as governor and his extreme record on this issue.”Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, a Democrat, has used the state’s near-total ban on abortions to paint his Republican opponent as an extremist.Jon Cherry for The New York TimesStill, not every Democrat running in a red state has embraced Mr. Beshear’s approach. Just as in the midterms, when abortion benefited Democrats most in states like Arizona and Michigan, where the right to the procedure was directly at risk, Democrats are leveraging the issue race by race.In Mississippi, Brandon Presley, the Democratic candidate for governor, has promoted his “pro-life” stance in television ads and has focused on issues like Medicaid expansion. And Shawn Wilson, a Democratic who lost the race for governor in Louisiana last month, said he was personally “pro-life.” Both are deeply conservative states where abortion is banned in almost all circumstances.In Virginia, where abortion remains legal through the second trimester, Republicans are the ones mitigating their approach. Mr. Youngkin has tried to be proactive in his messaging on abortion, promising to sign a 15-week ban if he and his Republican allies take over both chambers of the Legislature.Such a policy would have significant implications for the entire region, because Virginia has become a destination for patients across the South seeking the procedure. Currently, abortion remains legal in the state until nearly 27 weeks, and afterward if needed to save the life of the woman.Most doctors say there is no medical basis for an abortion cutoff at 15 weeks of pregnancy. Nor would it stop the vast majority of abortions, given that more than 93 percent happen before that stage in pregnancy, according to data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But 15 weeks is the point at which many polls indicate that a majority of Americans would support restrictions.That’s one of the reasons Mr. Youngkin’s political committee has spent $1.4 million on ads pushing what the spots call a “reasonable” 15-week limit and accusing Democrats of disinformation as a heartbeat can be heard in the background. “Here’s the truth: There is no ban,” the narrator says.National Republican strategists have been pushing that message as well, urging their candidates to embrace a 15-week ban and exceptions in cases of rape, incest and risks to the physical health of the woman — all relatively popular positions with the general public.Zack Roday, a top political adviser to Mr. Youngkin, said Republicans were trying to reclaim and redirect the extremist label. He said Republicans needed to proactively neutralize that attack and create a “permission structure” for voters who are wary of G.O.P. candidates’ stances on abortion but like their approach to other issues.“They understand 40 weeks, no limits is extreme,” Mr. Roday said. “We’re trying to reclaim and bat that down. Because when you do, the voters will look at you more broadly.”Democrats say there are significant complications to Mr. Youngkin’s strategy. Polls show that a plurality of voters dislike the Republican approach to abortion rights. In private meetings and research memos, even some Republican strategists have urged their candidates to move away from the “pro-life” label, saying that many Americans now equate the term with support for a total ban.Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who worked for Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s campaign in 2020, said that voters tended to see the issue of abortion as a fight over personal autonomy, and were less interested in litigating a number of weeks or specific exceptions.“Before Dobbs, people were very willing to entertain exceptions and restrictions,” she said. “Now they are much less open to that conversation because they just think there’s a bigger fundamental point here.”She added, “The fundamental freedom to an abortion has been taken away, and we want to guarantee that right.”State Senator Scott Surovell, the campaign chairman of the Virginia Senate’s Democratic caucus, said abortion remained the No. 1 issue driving people to vote.When Mr. Surovell first heard that Mr. Youngkin’s operation was planning to spend more than $1 million on abortion ads, he said he felt like what “the Union troops thought at Gettysburg,” when the Confederate army made a famously ill-fated charge.“You’re going to try to charge us here?” he said. “They’re going to try to attack us while we’re on the high ground here?”Reid J. Epstein More

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      Virginia white voters’ mail-in ballots face fewer challenges, Democrats say

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      Virginia Democrats are concerned that non-white voters in the state are getting their mail-in ballots flagged for possible rejection at much higher rates than their white counterparts ahead of a closely watched election day on Tuesday.Virginia, like all states, requires voters to fill out certain information on the envelope in which they return their ballot. In Virginia that includes their name, address, birth year and last four digits of their social security number. If any of that information is missing, voters have until 13 November to provide it. If they don’t provide it by the deadline, the ballot is rejected.An internal analysis by the Democratic Party of Virginia, shared with the Guardian, found election officials have flagged 6,216 mail-in ballots for possible rejection as of Friday – 2.89% of the total mail-in ballots cast. Voters have fixed issues with more than half of those ballots, the party said, so there are 2,783 ballots that could be rejected.Black voters were much more likely than white voters to have their ballots flagged for potential rejection, the party’s analysis showed. Statewide, 4.82% of ballots submitted by Black voters have been flagged for rejection as of Friday, compared with 2.79% for white voters, the party’s analysis showed.“This is unacceptable, and raises the stakes for election officials to get this right. Every Virginian has a constitutional right to vote and have that ballot counted. That means taking the ballot cure process seriously,” Aaron Mukerjee, who is leading the state party’s voter protection efforts said in a statement.The Virginia department of elections did not return a request for comment.Even if the majority of voters are able to cure their ballots, it’s still alarming to see racial disparities in the ballots being flagged, Mukerjee said.“This is just an additional burden, especially for voters of color, who are now having to go through a multi-stage process in order to have their vote counted with no discernible benefit to the security of elections,” he said in an interview.In some localities, the disparity was clear, according to the Democratic party’s analysis. In Richmond, the state capital, more than 11% of ballots returned by Black voters were flagged for possible rejection, compared with about 5.5% for white voters. In Henrico county, more than 6.5% of ballots returned by Black voters were flagged for rejection, compared with about 3% for white voters.And even after significant numbers of voters have cured their ballots in both counties, the potential rejection rate for Black voters remained more than twice as high as their white counterparts.Under state law, local election officials are required to contact voters who turned in mail-in ballots by Friday and inform them that they need to cure their ballot. Mukerjee said the party was concerned because it was hearing from voters who had not received notice from local election offices.While the number of ballots rejected is usually a tiny fraction of the total votes cast, the uncounted votes make a difference in state legislative races, which can be decided by razor-thin margins. In 2018, a house of delegates race resulted in a tie and was determined by a drawing from a hat. The Republican candidate won the contest, giving the party control of the house of delegates.The cure period past election day, something many states allow, also could delay final election results in close races as candidates and parties race to track down those whose ballots have been flagged to try and get them to cure any problems.Virginia recently changed its rules around mail-in voting, making it significantly easier to vote that way. Until this year, Virginia voters had to get a witness to sign their mail-in ballot. That requirement was eliminated on 1 July and replaced with a requirement that voters provide their year of birth and the last four digits of their social security number. At least one local registrar sent out incorrect and outdated voting instructions.It’s not clear what is causing the disparity. Mukerjee said about 40% of the rejections it had studied were because of issues with providing the last four digits of a social security number or birth year.Virginia’s elections next week will determine which party controls the state legislature and could give Governor Glenn Youngkin and state Republicans power to advance new restrictions on abortion among other GOP priorities.Last week, Virginia election officials said they had erroneously removed nearly 3,400 eligible people from the voter rolls, more than 10 times the number they had initially disclosed. Officials have said anyone wrongly removed will be restored to the rolls, though there are ongoing questions about how the error occurred and concerns about lingering confusion.Virginia reported rejecting 2,649 ballots in 2022 – less than 1% of those returned – and said more than 4,300 people had successfully fixed an issue with their ballot. More

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      Abigail Spanberger flexes her political power in a battleground state: ‘I could see her as president’

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      As two dozen volunteers prepared to knock doors on an unseasonably warm afternoon in late October, Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger reminded them that their work helped flip her battleground House seat in 2018. She predicted it would pay off again for Virginia Democrats this year.“It is how we have won in hard races across Virginia and across the country, and it is certainly why I feel confident that we are on the right path headed towards November 7,” Spanberger said, speaking to campaign volunteers in a sunny parking lot in Manassas.Spanberger has played an active role in boosting Virginia Democrats’ hopes for election day, as the party looks to flip control of the house of delegates and maintain their majority in the state senate. The stakes are high: Republicans would achieve a legislative trifecta in Richmond if they take control of the state senate, allowing them to enact controversial policies like banning abortion after 15 weeks and limiting access to the ballot box.With her carefully crafted political persona as a centrist Democrat, Spanberger may be the right person to deliver her party’s closing message in the final stretch of the campaign. In Manassas, Spanberger laid out her vision for how Virginia Democrats would succeed on 7 November, saying: “There is nothing more important than helping people believe that the policies and the government – whether it be in Richmond or on Capitol Hill – that they want is possible.”The results on Tuesday could affect Spanberger’s own future as well; the congresswoman has reportedly told multiple people that she intends to run for governor in the battleground state. If she is successful, her victory would allow Democrats to take back the Virginia governorship, which is now held by Republican Glenn Youngkin, in 2025.For now, Spanberger has declined to confirm those plans, insisting she remains laser-focused on this year’s crucial elections.“I have enjoyed spending time with people who are in the voting mindset,” Spanberger said in August. “As for anything that I might do in the future, I’m not going to make any announcements until after November.”Spanberger first won election to the US House of Representatives in 2018, capitalizing on her experience as a former CIA officer turned organizer for the gun safety group Moms Demand Action to sway voters concerned about Donald Trump’s leadership. Winning her 2018 race by just two points, Spanberger unseated a Republican incumbent, Dave Brat, who had defeated his last Democratic opponent by 15 points two years earlier.Spanberger joined a freshman House class dominated by Democrats, part of the “blue wave” that helped the party take control of the chamber for the first time in eight years.“She was one of these what I call the ‘national security Democrats’ that were elected in 2018,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report. “I think she still retains that sort of more moderate pragmatic profile, with especially a focus on national security.”Despite Republicans’ repeated efforts to oust Spanberger, the congresswoman has held on to her seat through two hard-fought re-election campaigns. Running in a newly redrawn district in 2022, Spanberger won her race by roughly five points, her largest victory to date. She has also proved herself to be an impressive fundraiser, bringing in nearly $9m in 2022.Over her three terms in Congress, she has developed a reputation as a centrist able to collaborate with Democrats and Republicans alike, as she has advocated for bipartisan initiatives like a ban on House members trading individual stocks and increased funding for police departments. Spanberger enjoys reminding voters that she was named the most bipartisan elected official in Virginia by the non-profit Common Ground Committee.But even as she cultivates a reputation as a pragmatic centrist, Spanberger has been careful to avoid alienating her more progressive constituents through her consistent support of the social issues that remain important to the Democratic base. The Planned Parenthood Action Fund has given Spanberger a score of 100% on its congressional scorecard, as has the LGBTQ+ rights group Human Rights Campaign. Spanberger, who highlighted her work with Moms Demand Action during her first campaign, has also received endorsements from anti-gun violence groups like Everytown for Gun Safety and Giffords.This delicate political balance frustrates her Republican rivals, who argue the congresswoman’s voting record proves she is not the centrist she makes herself out to be.“She does campaign as a moderate. Her language is moderate in tone,” said Rich Anderson, chairman of the Republican party of Virginia. “But she votes as a pretty progressive liberal out on the left edge of the spectrum.”The moments when Spanberger has publicly clashed with her party have been rare and notable. She opposed the election of Nancy Pelosi as House speaker in 2019 and 2021, a significant but ultimately inconsequential vote as Pelosi still won the gavel. Spanberger also made headlines in 2020, when the Washington Post reported that she lashed out against progressive colleagues in a phone call focused on Democrats’ losses in key House races. Lamenting the defeat of several centrist Democrats in battleground states, Spanberger reportedly said: “We need to not ever use the word ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again … We lost good members because of that.”“She’s been very careful to pick and choose where she goes against her party,” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. “It’s worked for her. That’s the bottom line. It has worked and given her a lot of encouragement that she could run an effective statewide campaign, and that remains to be seen.”As speculation has intensified over her statewide ambitions, Spanberger has made a point to keep her attention on the elections happening this year, crisscrossing the state to promote Democratic candidates.“We want legislators who are focused on the issues that matter,” Spanberger told a crowd of roughly 120 people in rural Orange, Virginia, in August. “We want people in elected and representative offices who are going out and talking to the people that they represent, who are advocating for the issues that matter.”Candidates and voters at the Orange event applauded Spanberger’s seemingly ubiquitous presence in her district. Jason Ford, a former campaign staffer for Spanberger who is now running for a seat on the state senate, recalled a running joke that no one knew where the congresswoman lived in the district because she always seemed to be out on the campaign trail speaking to voters.“She’s willing to show up in every part of the district,” Ford said. “She has consistently shown that hard work, commitment to the people and genuinely caring about the issues that they care about is what it takes to be a good representative.”That approach has won her many fans among Democrats in her district. “She just cares about Virginia. She cares about the things that Virginians care about and not what Youngkin and his crowd think Virginians care about,” said Kate Handley, a 57-year-old from Gordonsville.Bill Maiden, a 58-year-old voter and former Republican from Culpepper, added: “She actually goes out, meets people and does what she says – reaches across the aisle, gets things done … That’s exactly what we need out of a politician.”Spanberger’s constituents voiced optimism about her potential gubernatorial campaign, even as they expressed dismay about the possibility of her leaving the House.“I’d hate to lose her in Congress, but I think she would be a fantastic governor,” said Lynn Meyers, a 78-year-old voter from Locust Grove. “She’s on point. She’s realistic. She’s fair. She’s not like a loose cannon like so many of our folks in politics are today.”But any statewide campaign will have to wait until after the legislative elections next week, which could be instructive for Spanberger and other Virginia politicians weighing their future plans. If Republicans are successful on Tuesday, it may encourage candidates in the Youngkin mold to jump into the gubernatorial race, although experts emphasize that it is too early to get a clear sense of the 2025 field.“It’s essentially impossible to handicap the field before we even know how these elections turn out next week and who is running,” Taylor said.On the Republican side, Virginia’s lieutenant governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, and the state’s attorney general, Jason Miyares, have been named as potential candidates, given that Youngkin is term-limited. Spanberger may also face a rocky road to the Democratic nomination, as Richmond’s mayor, Levar Stoney, has been widely expected to jump into the primary.“My guess is that much of the commentary will focus on her as the centrist candidate and the mayor as the more progressive one,” Rozell said. “That could be a danger point for her, given the low turnout in primaries and the propensity of the more liberal wing of the party to dominate turnout in low-turnout primaries.”Spanberger could forgo a gubernatorial campaign and instead focus on holding her battleground district in 2024, which may bolster her party’s prospects of regaining control of the US House next year. But given Spanberger’s packed campaign schedule over the past few months, Anderson believes there is little question of her future plans.“She is spending a lot of time if not on the road at least making public statements in support of legislative candidates who have been nominated by the Democratic party all around the state, so that tells me that’s exactly where she’s going,” Anderson said. “I think probably within a reasonable period of time after November 7, we’ll have the answer to the question.”Although 2025 is more than a year away, at least one of Spanberger’s admirers is already looking beyond the governor’s mansion.“I could see her as president someday. I really could,” said Willow Drinkwater, an 82-year-old voter from Gordonsville. “Because she brings people together. She’s a consensus-maker.” More

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      Speaker Johnson, Israel, government shutdown and Virginia – podcast

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      The new speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson of Louisiana, faces the tough task of uniting a fractured Republican party, and preventing a quick-approaching government shutdown. Jonathan Freedland and Marianna Sotomayor of the Washington Post discuss what we have learned about his approach to the job from his first week with the gavel.
      Plus, as we prepare for next week’s off-year elections, Jonathan speaks to Carter Sherman about Virginia – the last remaining southern state without extensive abortion restrictions. They look at why results there could prove pivotal for Republican chances in 2024

      How to listen to podcasts: everything you need to know More

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      Book bans and school bathrooms: Republicans to test power of ‘parents’ rights’ movement in Virginia

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      It was a career-ending gaffe, or at least has come to be seen that way. “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach,” said Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe during a 2021 Virginia gubernatorial debate with his Republican rival, Glenn Youngkin.The line was replayed endlessly in attack ads, and handed Youngkin a gift for the central plank of his election campaign: “Parents matter.” He prevailed in a state that Joe Biden had won a year earlier. Now Youngkin is seeking to repeat the trick on 7 November on behalf of Republicans in elections for Virginia’s state assembly.The modern-day “parents’ rights” movement has roots in grievance over schools’ handling of the coronavirus pandemic, including long closures and mask mandates. Republican messaging subsequently pivoted to cultural divides that have sparked clashes around instruction of topics related to race, sexual orientation and gender identity.Conservative political action committees also funnelled millions of dollars to school board races, backing candidates who oppose what they see as ultra-leftist ideology in public schools. The once obscure boards have become acrimonious battlegrounds debating everything from book bans and critical race theory to “patriotic” history lessons and transgender students’ use of school bathrooms.But the electoral potency of such issues among suburban voters is increasingly being questioned. On a national level Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida who built his candidacy around “anti-wokeness”, has failed to catch fire in the Republican presidential primary election. Now the limitations of the message will be put to the test in Virginia.Danica Roem, a member of the Virginia house of delegates bidding to become the first transgender member of the state senate, said in an interview: “The closing message of the Republican running against me [Bill Wool] is transphobia, transphobia, transphobia. Between him and the supporting organisations, my face ended up in black and white negative mailers 20 times this campaign and they’ve done weeks of negative TV. We expect them to go hard negative at the end of this campaign.“Everything they’re doing right now is just based on, ‘Oh my God, you support trans kids wanting to play with their friends. Oh my God, you support not forcibly outing trans kids against their will when it’s not safe at home. Oh my God, you’re soft on crime because you’re trying to protect trans people or whatever.’ They just come up with the stuff over and over and over again. They’re putting a lot more money into the same message that lost the last three campaigns against me, and I expect the same result is going to play out this November 7.”Virginia is a political laboratory that will be watched closely by both major parties ahead of next year’s elections for the White House and US Congress. It was home to George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, founding fathers who owned enslaved people on sprawling estates, and the Confederate generals Robert E Lee and Thomas “Stonewall” Jackson, who sought to preserve slavery at the cost of the Union.The south lost the civil war but Virginia remained a haven of Jim Crow laws that maintained racial segregation. By the 1990s, however, the state had elected the first African American governor in the US. The expansion of Washington DC spilled into northern Virginia, where voters are more likely to be immigrants, college-educated and liberal.The state’s tilt towards Democrats looked assured with the 2013 election of McAuliffe as governor followed by Ralph Northam in 2017. The state government passed some of the strictest gun laws, loosest abortion restrictions and strongest protections for LGBTQ+ people in the south. It also legalised marijuana for adult recreational use and abolished the death penalty.But Youngkin, along with the lieutenant governor, Winsome Sears, and attorney general, Jason Miyares, and their parents’ rights offensive disrupted that narrative. Youngkin said after their victory that they had shown a winning path for Republicans to talk about education, an issue for which he said they have “historically been a bit on our heels”.As governor, Youngkin has issued an executive order to ban “inherently divisive” topics from school curriculums, signed a law allowing parents to opt out of mask mandates and enacted a set of model policies for the treatment of transgender students that reversed protections put into place by Democrats. He set up a “tip line” for parents to report supposedly divisive practices in schools only for it to be quietly abandoned a few months later.Next month’s election could indicate whether parents’ rights is a flash in the pan or something more permanent. Rich Anderson, chair of the Republican party of Virginia, insisted: “Those issues that were on the table that played a role in the election of Youngkin, Sears and Miyares are still at play today.“I’ve met not only Republican parents, but Democratic parents and independent parents who are concerned about biological male access to their daughters’ bathrooms and locker rooms. It’s a very complex issue. It is still playing mightily in the state and so I think that it is going to play a very prominent role in the election.”The parents’ rights movement has called for schools to remove certain books dealing with race or sexuality. Anderson added: “The narrative that comes from the Democrats is about banning books. There’s no attempt to ban books. It’s simply to have age-appropriate reading materials in the libraries in our public school system.“The parents have, in fact, a significant say about the materials that are maintained there and accessible by other students. It’s not about book banning. It’s about making sure that age-appropriate materials are present in the libraries and age-appropriate subjects are taught to their children.”On the campaign trail, many Republicans are styling themselves as defenders of Virginia schoolchildren against a leftwing ideology that promotes social justice activism, negative racial history and gender fluidity over academic achievement.Paul Lott, a Republican candidate for the house of delegates from Ashburn, said: “There should be no reason why my child at eight, nine, 19 should be able to go into a school library and check out material without my consent that can’t be broadcast on television, can’t be broadcast on the radio, and they can’t even get into a movie to see.”Lott continued: “What’s happened these days is they’re starting to use public education as a way to try to sidestep due process and that’s not OK. All the various things that we know in popular law – a kid can’t get a tattoo before age 18 without parental consent. How can they consent to a puberty blocker when they can’t get a tattoo?Among the flashpoints in Virginia has been Thomas Jefferson high school for science and technology, frequently cited as among the best public schools in the nation. Activists argued that the Fairfax county school board introduced an admissions policy that unfairly discriminates against highly qualified Asian Americans, a claim upheld by a federal judge but overturned on appeal. For decades Black and Latino students have been underrepresented at the school while Asian Americans made up more than 70% of the student body.The battle for school boards has also turned nasty with screaming matches and even arrests. Juli Briskman, a supervisor seeking re-election in Loudon county, northern Virginia, said several school board members there have received racially motivated death threats, while the head of an LGBTQ+ equality group had to move out of the county. “It’s just been heinous,” she commented.“The number of of transgender athletes we have in the county is very small. Why don’t we pick on the minority population? Just to make themselves feel bigger? These kids are going through enough. Some of these kids don’t have supportive parents and then they’re made to feel like they can’t be themselves in school? That’s horrible.”Briskman cited recent surveys showing that parents’ rights are “fading a little bit” as an issue. “Folks in Loudoun county didn’t believe this messaging in the first place. Biden crushed it here. Youngkin lost by 11 points. I’m just hoping that this year will finally just put this all to bed and prove that the values of Loudoun county are values of inclusiveness and non-discrimination. And just stop with the culture wars.”Indeed, there are warning signs for the utility of parents’ rights at the ballot box. Hundreds of activists elected to local school boards largely fell short when running for Congress in last year’s midterm elections. Despite big-money backing from conservative groups such as the 1776 Project Pac and Moms for Liberty, the candidates’ message failed to resonate with moderate voters.Teachers’ unions and liberal grassroots groups have been fighting back with money and messaging of their own, casting conservative activists as fearmongers intent on turning parents against public schools, marginalising LGBTQ+ students and distracting voters from unpopular policies.They also believe that such tactics will be outstripped by Democratic energy around abortion rights. They are quick to point out that, should Republicans maintain control of the house and flip control of the senate, Youngkin will be able to enact an extreme rightwing agenda that includes a 15-week ban on abortion.Abhi Rahman, communications director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said: “The biggest issues that matter to people, Democrats are pretty much aligned on the way that people want these issues to go. Republicans demonise books and schools and trans people, gay people. It shows you that Virginians are better than this and that’s why Democrats are going to win in November.”Roem, the house delegate running for the 30th district of the Virginia state senate, suggests that the most effective antidote is pointing to a tangible legislative record. Her campaign slogan is “Fixing roads, feeding kids” whereas, she notes, her predecessor Bob Marshall often pushed culture war talking points during 26 years in office.“If they think that the voters are going to become more favourable to that messaging just because they have more money behind it, it’s going to end up being a very nice contrast for us to say, hey, look, we are focused on improving your day-to-day quality of life. They’re focused on trying to either take your rights away or to make the lives of trans kids more miserable.” More

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      Election Day Guide: Governor Races, Abortion Access and More

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      Two governorships are at stake in the South, while Ohio voters will decide whether to enshrine the right to an abortion in the state constitution.Election Day is nearly here, and while off-year political races receive a fraction of the attention compared with presidential elections, some of Tuesday’s contests will be intensely watched.At stake are two southern governorships, control of the Virginia General Assembly and abortion access in Ohio. National Democrats and Republicans, seeking to build momentum moving toward next November, will be eyeing those results for signals about 2024.Here are the major contests voters will decide on Tuesday and a key ballot question:Governor of KentuckyGov. Andy Beshear, left, a Democrat, is facing Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s Republican attorney general, in his campaign for re-election as governor.Pool photo by Kentucky Educational TelevisionGov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, is seeking to again defy convention in deep-red Kentucky, a state carried handily by Donald J. Trump in 2020.He is facing Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s attorney general, who was propelled to victory by an early endorsement from Mr. Trump in a competitive Republican primary in May.In 2019, Mr. Cameron became the first Black person to be elected as Kentucky’s attorney general, an office previously held by Mr. Beshear. He drew attention in 2020 when he announced that a grand jury did not indict two Louisville officers who shot Breonna Taylor.In the 2019 governor’s race, Mr. Beshear ousted Matt Bevin, a Trump-backed Republican, by fewer than 6,000 votes. This year, he enters the race with a strong job approval rating. He is seeking to replicate a political feat of his father, Steve Beshear, who was also Kentucky governor and was elected to two terms.Governor of Mississippi Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner who is related to Elvis Presley, wants to be the state’s first Democratic governor in two decades.Emily Kask for The New York TimesGov. Tate Reeves, a Republican in his first term, has some of the lowest job approval numbers of the nation’s governors.Rogelio V. Solis/Associated PressIt has been two decades since Mississippi had a Democrat as governor. Gov. Tate Reeves, a Republican in his first term, is seeking to avoid becoming the one who ends that streak.But his job approval numbers are among the lowest of the nation’s governors, which has emboldened his Democratic challenger, Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner with a famous last name: His second cousin, once removed, was Elvis Presley.Mr. Presley has attacked Mr. Reeves over a welfare scandal exposed last year by Mississippi Today, which found that millions in federal funds were misspent. Mr. Reeves, who was the lieutenant governor during the years the scandal unfolded, has denied any wrongdoing, but the issue has been a focal point of the contest.Abortion access in OhioAs states continue to reckon with the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court last year, Ohio has become the latest front in the fight over access to abortion.Reproductive rights advocates succeeded in placing a proposed amendment on the November ballot that would enshrine the right to abortion access into the state constitution. Its supporters have sought to fill the void that was created by the Roe decision.Anti-abortion groups have mounted a sweeping campaign to stop the measure. One effort, a proposal to raise the threshold required for passing a constitutional amendment, was rejected by voters this summer.Virginia legislatureIn just two states won by President Biden in 2020, Republicans have a power monopoly — and in Virginia, they are aiming to secure a third. The others are Georgia and New Hampshire.Democrats narrowly control the Virginia Senate, where all 40 seats are up for grabs in the election. Republicans hold a slim majority in the House of Delegates, which is also being contested.The outcome of the election is being viewed as a potential reflection of the clout of Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican with national ambitions.Philadelphia mayorAn open-seat race for mayor in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s foremost Democratic bastion, is down to two former City Council members: Cherelle Parker, a Democrat, and David Oh, a Republican.The advantage for Ms. Parker appears to be an overwhelming one in the city, which has not elected a Republican as mayor since 1947.It has also been two decades since Philadelphia, the nation’s sixth most populous city, had a somewhat competitive mayoral race. More