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      Conservative Election Activists Use Virginia as a Dry Run for 2024

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      Inspired in part by Donald Trump’s baseless rigged-election claims, the activists are trying to recruit supporters to serve as poll watchers and election workers in the state’s legislative contests.In 2021, after Republican victories in Virginia, conservative activists were so proud of their work training poll watchers, recruiting election workers and making other attempts to subtly influence the voting system that they wrote a memo called “The Virginia Model.” The memo detailed ways that other states could follow Virginia’s lead in protecting so-called election integrity.Now these activists are turning their attention back to Virginia, which is a month away from tossup elections that will decide control of the state’s closely divided legislature and offer both national parties clear evidence of their electoral strengths and weaknesses heading into 2024.Every Tuesday night, Virginia Fair Elections, the group that drafted “The Virginia Model,” holds trainings for poll watchers aligned with its mission and encourages conservative activists to register to work at the polls. The organization also hosts trainings for new members of local election boards.The trainings are permeated by an undercurrent of mistrust in the electoral system: Poll watchers are encouraged to arrive early and insist on being as close as legally possible to election workers, voters and ballot machines; to make sure to inspect those machines; and to look for any evidence of potential fraud.“All of us have eyes on,” Clara Belle Wheeler, a former member of the Virginia State Board of Elections who now leads the trainings, said at the end of an hourlong training session for poll watchers last Tuesday, according to an audio recording of the meeting obtained by The New York Times. “I’m watching.”The group, like many others across the country, is taking its cues from former President Donald J. Trump, who has continued to make baseless claims that American elections are rigged. Behind the scenes and at public events, conservative activists who share his beliefs have been working to overhaul voting laws and recruit activists and supporters to serve as poll watchers and election workers.In numerous counties and localities across Virginia, conservative activists have been appointed to local election boards, the bodies that are in charge of determining early voting hours and locations, leading some to move early polling locations or reduce voting access on the weekends. The state also withdrew from the Electronic Registration Information Center, known as ERIC, an interstate clearinghouse for voter data that helps ensure secure elections, but became a flashpoint on the right based on a widely debunked conspiracy theory.Democrats and voting rights groups say these moves could have significant consequences — that seemingly small changes and pressures on the system could add up and potentially affect the outcome of an election. They worry that overly aggressive poll watchers could intimidate voters, or that conspiracy-minded Trump supporters who insert themselves in the election process could interfere with the results.“This is sort of like a death by 1,000 cuts, and there’s no necessarily one thing that you can point to and say, ‘That’s what’s going to swing the election,’” said Aaron Mukerjee, the voter protection director for the Virginia Democratic Party. “Taken together, the goal is to disenfranchise enough voters that they can win the election.”It is often difficult to determine whether changes to election laws or other attempts to intervene in the voting process ultimately affect outcomes. Turnout alone does not determine how many voters may have been affected. In the Trump era, changes in voting patterns have scrambled the longtime presumption that higher turnout helps Democrats and lower turnout aids Republicans.And there is no evidence that Republican election activists aided victories in Virginia in 2021, nor that their policies and activities necessarily benefit either party. During that election, poll watchers at 13 voting sites were observed being disruptive, according to reports filed by elections workers.In the run-up to the 2021 election, activists trained by Virginia Fair Elections collected claims of malfeasance and filed a lawsuit challenging at least 390 ballot applications that were missing Social Security numbers. The suit was dismissed, but conservative news outlets focused on the complaint and began to argue that the coming vote in Virginia would be “stolen,” as many activists believed had happened in 2020. (Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, ended up winning, and his party made gains in the legislature.)Nonetheless, Republican-aligned groups like Virginia Fair Elections continue to try to tighten voting laws.Virginia Fair Elections is managed by the Virginia Institute for Public Policy, a conservative think tank that was formed in 1996 with moderate fund-raising in the low six figures annually. But as the think tank shifted its focus to so-called election integrity efforts after the last presidential contest, it raised over $508,000 in 2021, according to data kept by ProPublica.That money included a $125,000 grant earmarked for the “Virginia Fair Elections project” from the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, a major funder of groups that have proliferated myths about voter fraud. Its board includes Cleta Mitchell, a longtime conservative lawyer who played a key role in trying to overturn the 2020 election.In 2021, the “Virginia Model” executed by Virginia Fair Elections became the blueprint for the Election Integrity Network, a national coalition guided by Ms. Mitchell that quickly became one of the most influential organizations seeking to change voting laws and recruit local activists.Last year, Virginia Fair Elections hosted a two-day gathering conceptualized by Ms. Mitchell. The group boasted of having trained 4,500 poll watchers and election officials, and of covering 85 percent of polling locations in Virginia on Election Day in 2021 and during the 45 days of early voting.Cleta Mitchell has guided the Election Integrity Network, one of the most influential organizations seeking to change voting laws and recruit activists to serve as poll watchers and election workers.Matt Rourke/Associated PressIn August, Virginia Fair Elections held a similar meeting at a Sheraton hotel outside Richmond. The daylong event featured 12 discussions, including a keynote speech from Mollie Hemingway, a well-known conservative columnist. A panel discussion held just after lunch highlighted one front in which the network has made significant gains: county election boards and registrars, who serve as the chief election officials in Virginia localities.“The most important thing we do, however, is the hiring, and sometimes the firing, of the general registrar, and I think just as critical, if not more so, is the appointment, the training and potentially the dismissal of election officers,” John Ambrose, a Republican who serves as the vice chair of the electoral board of Richmond, told the audience to loud applause, according to an audio recording of the panel obtained by Documented, a liberal investigative group, and shared with The Times.Ms. Wheeler and the president of the Virginia Institute for Public Policy did not respond to text messages seeking comment. Virginia Fair Elections did not respond to multiple requests for comment.Under a peculiarity of Virginia law, the party of the most recently elected governor holds the advantage in the partisan makeup of local election boards. After Mr. Youngkin won the governor’s office in 2021, boards across the state flipped to 2-to-1 Republican control from 2-to-1 Democratic control.Groups like Virginia Fair Elections worked to place people they had trained on local election boards across the state, which meant that in many places, conservative priorities became policy.At least 10 counties in Virginia, including at least four with predominantly Black populations, have canceled Sunday voting for the coming elections. Some of the 10 counties, among them Richmond, Spotsylvania, Virginia Beach and Chesterfield, contain major population centers.Sundays are popular voting days for Black communities, where “Souls to the Polls” events led by churches have a long history of fostering community and helping protect against intimidation at the polls.“Democracy is coming under attack, whether it’s the Republican-led electoral boards throughout different localities who are cutting down on Sunday voting, or even closing early-vote locations that were in predominately Black communities,” said Joshua Cole, a pastor and a Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates in the Fredericksburg area. He pointed to the Mattaponi Baptist Association of Virginia, a local association of Black churches, several of which are no longer able to hold Souls to the Polls events.“Don’t take that right away from Christians, especially African American Christians, when it’s been a staple in the community for years,” he said.Joshua Cole, a Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates, has been critical of the push for counties to cancel Sunday voting, which are traditionally popular voting days for Black communities. Ryan M. Kelly/Associated PressSome local election officials acknowledged that the shift in partisan control was the main cause for the changes.“The reason Sunday voting is no longer an option for the City of Richmond is because the political representation from our electoral board has changed from Democratic to Republican since 2021,” said Katherin Cardozo-Robledo, the executive assistant to the electoral board in Richmond, a city whose population of about 230,000 is roughly 45 percent Black.Others, however, said there simply wasn’t enough demand.“We have elections every November in Virginia, so we did not continue it last year, either,” said Mary Lynn A. Pinkerman, who oversees elections in Chesapeake, which is roughly 30 percent Black. “Our city has approximately 176,000 voters, and when we tried it after being told there would be busloads coming, we only had 170 voters come that day. We do not have enough of a demand for it in our city.”With just a month left before polls close in Virginia, both parties are focused on the legislative elections, but the conservative activists have larger goals in mind.“What we’re doing is so critical,” Sheryl Stanworth, an attendee at the Tuesday training, said during the gathering. “We’ve got a presidential election to be looking forward to.” More

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      Virginia Democrat battling ‘Parkinson’s on steroids’ won’t seek re-election

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      Democratic congresswoman Jennifer Wexton said on Monday that she will finish out her term but not seek re-election for the northern Virginia-based seat that she has held since beating a Republican incumbent in 2018.Wexton, who was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease earlier this year, said in a statement that her doctor had “modified my diagnosis to supra-nuclear Palsy”. She described it as a “kind of ‘Parkinson’s on steroids’”.The congresswoman, who is 55, added that she was “heartbroken to have to give up something I have loved after so many years of serving my community”. But she said that taking her prognosis for the coming years into consideration had prompted her to decide “not to seek re-election once my term is complete”.Wexton was part of a new influx of Democrats to Congress that helped flip control of the body midway through Donald Trump’s presidency. Before being elected to Virginia’s 10th district, an area that includes the western Washington DC suburbs of Leesburg and Loudoun county through Fauquier county, Wexton was a member of the state’s senate, a judge and a prosecutor.In 2022, she won re-election by more than 6%.Wexton said that she had not been making as much progress as she had hoped with what was then believed to Parkinson’s. Her new diagnosis – progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) – is caused by damage to nerve cells in areas of the brain that control thinking and body movements.The National Institutes of Health report that most people with PSP develop eye problems as the condition progresses, and they tend to lean backwards as well as extend their necks. People with Parkinson’s tend to bend forward rather than backwards.The Washington Post reported that Weston had told her staff of her condition: “It’s not OK. It’s not OK at all … I’m going to die, which isn’t fair.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWexton’s statement said she wanted to spend her “valued time” with her family and friends. She said that until her term in office ends she is “confident and committed as ever to keep up the work that got me into this fight in the first place”. More

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      Rep. Jennifer Wexton Announces Rare Neurological Disorder Diagnosis

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      Ms. Wexton, a Democrat who disclosed a Parkinson’s diagnosis in April, will not seek re-election after learning she has progressive supranuclear palsy, for which there is no effective treatment.Representative Jennifer Wexton, Democrat of Virginia, announced on Monday that she would not seek re-election next year after receiving a diagnosis of a rare neurological disorder.Ms. Wexton, 55, who represents a competitive district in the Virginia suburbs west of Washington, D.C., revealed in a statement that she has progressive supranuclear palsy, which she described in a statement as “Parkinson’s on steroids.”“I’m heartbroken to have to give up something I have loved after so many years of serving my community,” she said.Ms. Wexton was elected to represent Virginia’s 10th Congressional District in 2018, defeating a two-term Republican incumbent, Barbara Comstock, by 12 percentage points.In April, Ms. Wexton announced that she had been diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease, saying at the time that it would not stop her from continuing to live her life, or pursuing her political career.“I’m doing well, and I want to bring about as much good from this diagnosis as I can — including here in Congress,” Ms. Wexton wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.However, she wrote in her statement on Monday that she had noticed that people in her Parkinson’s support group weren’t having the same experience she was, and that she wasn’t making as much progress as she had hoped. She sought out other medical opinions and testing, which she said had led to her new diagnosis.Ms. Wexton said she planned to serve out the remainder of her term.“While my time in Congress will soon come to a close,” Ms. Wexton said, “I’m just as confident and committed as ever to keep up the work that got me into this fight in the first place for my remaining time in office — to help build the future we want for our children.”What is progressive supranuclear palsy?It is not uncommon for people with progressive supranuclear palsy, also known as P.S.P., to be misdiagnosed with Parkinson’s, as Ms. Wexton was. The two disorders share many symptoms, such as difficulty swallowing, and speech and balance issues.P.S.P. is caused by damage to nerve cells in areas of the brain that control thinking and body movement. It affects walking and balance as well as eye movement, and progresses more rapidly than Parkinson’s. There is currently no treatment that effectively stops or slows the disorder’s progression or symptoms, according to the National Institutes of Health.Symptoms typically appear when a person is in their mid-to-late 60s, later than when Parkinson’s symptoms usually start. Most people with P.S.P. develop severe disability within three to five years of the onset of symptoms, and may experience serious complications such as pneumonia, choking or the risk of head injuries from falls. It can also cause changes in behavior, such as forgetfulness and increased irritability.Given the nature of the disorder, Ms. Wexton said she wanted to spend her “valued time” with her friends and loved ones, including her husband and two sons.Her diagnosis has political implications for 2024.When Ms. Wexton won in 2018, she flipped her Northern Virginia district from red to blue, part of an anti-Trump wave that led to Democrats regaining control of the House. She came into Congress along with two other Democratic women who had flipped seats in Virginia, Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria.While Ms. Luria lost her race for re-election last year, Ms. Wexton won her third term by six points. But Ms. Wexton’s district, one of the wealthiest in the country, remains competitive, and is likely to be even more so without an incumbent running for the seat.Ms. Wexton’s decision not to run again leaves Republicans, who hold a slim majority in the House, with an opportunity to pick up a seat in the 2024 election, when Democrats will be angling to win back control of the chamber.Annie Karni More

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      Virginia Democratic candidate denounces report of sex videos

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      A Virginia Democrat running in a closely contested legislative election has denounced reports that she and her husband engaged in sex acts livestreamed on an online platform in exchange for “tips”.Susanna Gibson, a nurse practitioner and a first-time candidate seeking a seat in Virginia’s house of delegates, shared the videos on a platform called Chaturbate.The videos, which were first reported by the Washington Post and then confirmed by the Associated Press, show Gibson urging viewers to provide tips in the form of Chaturbate tokens in exchange for her performance of specific sex acts with her husband.The videos were archived in 2022, though it is unclear when the live streams occurred.According to the Post’s report, a Republican operative first alerted the newspaper to the existence of the videos, which had been archived on another site. In a statement, Gibson denounced the report as a form of “gutter politics” and “an illegal invasion of my privacy designed to humiliate me and my family”.“It won’t intimidate me and it won’t silence me,” Gibson said. “My political opponents and their Republican allies have proven they’re willing to commit a sex crime to attack me and my family because there’s no line they won’t cross to silence women when they speak up.”A lawyer representing Gibson, Daniel P Watkins, told the Post that the videos may have violated Virginia’s revenge porn law, adding: “We are working closely with state and federal law enforcement.”Gibson’s district, located just north-west of Richmond, is considered one of just a handful of competitive seats in the race to control Virginia’s house of delegates. In the last legislative session, Republicans narrowly controlled the chamber, while Democrats maintained a slim majority in the state senate.The Virginia governor, Republican Glenn Youngkin, has invested heavily in his party’s efforts to take full control of the state legislature in November. If Republicans are successful, Youngkin would face few hurdles in enacting his legislative agenda, including a proposed 15-week abortion ban.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionFollowing the overturning of Roe v Wade last year, many Republican-controlled states enacted new restrictions and, in some cases, bans on abortion access. Virginia is now the last remaining state in the US south without severe abortion restrictions, and Democrats fear that a Republican trifecta in Richmond would quickly move to curtail access to the procedure.The Democratic party of Virginia declined to comment. More

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      ‘Virginia Is the Test Case’: Youngkin Pushes for G.O.P. Takeover This Fall

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      Glenn Youngkin, a popular Republican governor with national ambitions, is trying to help his party take full control of state government in crucial legislative races this year. Virginia, whose off-year elections are usually closely watched as an indicator of the national mood, has been mostly out of the spotlight this year, overshadowed by the Republican presidential primary and the looming general election clash.But with every seat in the Legislature up in eight weeks, the stakes are unusually high, with Republicans in position to swing the entire state, just four years after Democrats did the same. The effort, led by Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a popular Republican with national ambitions, is likely to serve as an early read on the politics of 2024, spinning out lessons for both parties, especially on abortion.Democrats have made abortion rights their top issue, warning that if Republicans win full control of the General Assembly, then Virginia will join other Southern states by sharply restricting abortion access.A winning night for Democrats on Nov. 7, however, will show that abortion remains just as potent a get-out-the-vote issue for the party as it has been in a string of state elections since the reversal of Roe v. Wade.With Mr. Youngkin overseeing his party’s message, the Republican pitch to turn out voters is less conservative red meat than roast chicken — a Republican comfort menu of tax cuts, job creation and parental influence over schools, which the governor labels “common-sense conservative policies.”On abortion, Mr. Youngkin, who is not on the ballot, wants to ban the procedure after 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. If Republicans take majorities in both legislative chambers — and both are in play — the takeaway is likely to be that the party cracked the code with suburban swing voters on abortion by offering a more middle-of-the-road position than the near total bans passed in deep-red states.“This election is going to matter, it’s going to set things up for 2024,” said Don Scott, the Democratic leader of the Virginia House of Delegates, who is one his party’s lead strategists. “If Virginia goes the wrong way, the narrative is going to be the Republicans have figured out the right election combination to overcome their extremism on abortion.”And it could be a road map for Republicans in other states who are looking to defuse the issue after election losses following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision.All 40 seats in the Virginia Senate and all 100 in the House are on the ballot. Republicans hold a slim majority in the House and Democrats narrowly control the Senate. Strategists on both sides agree that each chamber is up for grabs.Supporters signed the campaign bus to commit to voting early.Carlos Bernate for The New York Times“Folks, hold our House and flip our Senate, we know how to do this,” Mr. Youngkin urged a crowd on Saturday in a swing House district south of Richmond. He added: “Virginia is the test case.”He did not mention that another upshot of Republicans’ taking full control of state government is that Mr. Youngkin would further ascend as a national figure. Although he earlier teased a presidential run for 2024 — encouraged by many wealthy out-of-state donors and conservative media outlets who still yearn for him to get in the race — he has batted away the calls for months, saying his sole focus is turning the state.Although he has not ruled out a late entry into the primary, the political calendar and the polls argue strongly against such a move. Filing deadlines for the ballot in the early primary states of South Carolina and Nevada will have passed by November. In a recent Roanoke College Poll, 51 percent of Virginians approved of Mr. Youngkin’s job as governor, but only 9 percent of Republicans in his home state want him to be the 2024 nominee, versus 47 percent who favor Donald J. Trump.Mr. Youngkin, a wealthy former financial executive, has raised record sums for the Spirit of Virginia, his political committee supporting legislative candidates. The group says it pulled in $3.3 million in August and has raised $12 million since March. It is underwriting a tour of swing districts with Mr. Youngkin urging supporters to sign the side of a bus to show their commitment to voting early starting Sept. 22 — a practice that Mr. Trump had made toxic with the G.O.P. base, but has recently embraced.With Democrats lacking a comparable state leader this year, Virginia’s Democratic U.S. senators, Mark R. Warner and Tim Kaine, have raised alarms in recent weeks that the party was falling behind in fund-raising and mobilization.The White House heard the pleas, and President Biden directed the Democratic National Committee to funnel $1.2 million to the Majority Project, the Democratic group in Virginia coordinating door-knockers and other voter outreach in key districts.During Mr. Trump’s presidency, Virginia Democrats won full control of state government in elections in 2017 and 2019. In 2021, Mr. Youngkin and down-ballot Republicans profited from a backlash over pandemic-era school closures as well as rising inflation under Mr. Biden.“I’d love to have said that Virginia is solidly blue; that’s clearly not the case,” Mr. Warner said in an interview. Control of each chamber is likely to come down to a handful of races: four seats in the Senate and seven in the House that are considered tossups, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project.Many of the seats are in the exurbs of Virginia’s metropolitan areas — greater Washington, Richmond and Hampton Roads — a frontier of swing voters, many college-educated, the kind of voters who have had starring roles in elections across the U.S. in recent years.Democratic strategists said they needed to win only one of the four tossup Senate seats to hold their current majority. They are encouraged that Democratic congressional candidates carried all of the districts in the 2022 midterms. Republicans counter that Mr. Youngkin won the same districts in his 2021 election, and that he remains popular.Mr. Youngkin branded himself the “parents’ rights” candidate, and is aiming to bring his success on education issues to the state races.Carlos Bernate for The New York TimesOne of the most closely watched races is between two first-time Senate candidates in Loudoun County, a Washington exurb that became a national flashpoint in 2021 after conservative attacks on its public school policies on diversity and transgender students.Mr. Youngkin seized on those cultural issues to brand himself the “parents’ rights” candidate, which helped power his victory. In office, he banned critical race theory in K-12 schools (although educators said C.R.T. had no influence on curriculums), set up a tip line for parents to report about teachers and gave parents control of the names and pronouns their children used in school.Whether these issues still motivate voters is one of the unknowns in this year’s election. Mr. Youngkin is betting that they do and is holding a “Parents Matter” town hall-style event in Loudon County on Tuesday. Over the weekend, the governor went on “Fox News Sunday” to announce he had pardoned a father arrested in a 2021 incident at a Loudoun County School Board meeting where the father had criticized officials after his daughter was sexually assaulted in school.Russet Perry, the Democrat running for the open Senate seat in the county, said that when she knocks on the doors of swing voters, the top education issue she hears is concerns over school shootings, not culture-war matters.“Parents are a little tired of the politics intentionally injected into the schools by people who do not live here, including Glenn Youngkin,” said Ms. Perry, a former prosecutor with a daughter who is a high school freshman in public school.Across the state, the Democratic message is that Republicans are “extremists” and if they win full control in Richmond, they will seek strict abortion limits.But Mr. Youngkin has mostly focused his message elsewhere. In his 18-minute speech to rally Republicans on Saturday in Prince George, Va., he did not utter the words “abortion” or “pro-life,” instead stressing “common sense” policies.After a half-hour of greeting supporters, as aides hustled him to his car, he responded to a reporter’s shouted question about whether he would sign a six-week abortion ban.“Virginians elected a pro-life governor,” he said. “At the end of the day, I think we can ask all kinds of hypothetical questions. What I’ve been very clear on — and I’d appreciate you writing it clearly — is that I support a bill to protect life at 15 weeks.” More

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      Virginia’s off-off-year election is next big test for reproductive rights

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      As she addressed about 120 Democratic voters at a rally in rural Orange, Virginia, Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger made a point to impress upon her constituents just how much is on the line this fall.“This is personal. And politics is personal,” Spanberger told the crowd. “This year more than any other year, this election matters.”Stepping up to the podium, one of the Democrats endorsed by Spanberger, the state senate candidate Jason Ford, warned that Republican victories in November could have devastating consequences across the state.“In Virginia, reproductive rights are on the ballot this fall,” Ford said. “Properly funding our schools [is] on the ballot this fall.”The messages encapsulated Virginia Democrats’ broader pitch to voters as they look to regain control of the house of delegates and maintain their narrow majority in the state senate. They fear that, if Republicans can take full control of the general assembly, they will rubber-stamp Governor Glenn Youngkin’s conservative agenda to lower taxes and bolster “parents’ rights”. But most importantly, Democrats expect Republican victories in November would jeopardize abortion access in Virginia, which has become a rare refuge for those seeking the procedure in thesouth.The results also may provide the clearest indication yet of voters’ sentiments ahead of the 2024 elections and determine whether Virginia can still be considered a battleground, considering Republicans have lost the state in every presidential race since 2008.“Too many people think Virginia is solid blue in the electoral college,” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. “With Glenn Youngkin’s victory, and if the Republicans achieve what they are setting out to do this year, I think all bets are off for 2024.”An off-off-yearVirginia is one of just five US states that conduct off-year elections, meaning those that are held when no federal elections take place. History shows turnout in Virginia’s state legislative races tends to be particularly low in so-called “off-off-years” when there are no major statewide offices such as governor on the ballot.But candidates and activists from both sides of the aisle insist it would be a mistake to downplay the importance of Virginia’s elections this year. If Republicans can flip just two seats in the state senate, Youngkin will face few impediments in enacting his legislative agenda.Since taking office last year, Youngkin has already advanced policies calling for transgender children to use bathrooms and locker rooms that correspond with their sex assigned at birth. On his first day in office, Youngkin signed executive orders aimed at barring schools from teaching critical race theory and loosening public health mandates related to the coronavirus pandemic.“To get in and have the opportunity to take back the state senate and be able to support those initiatives is something that’s really important,” said Steve Knotts, chair of the Fairfax county Republican party in northern Virginia. “I think that they’ll be voting for Governor Youngkin’s initiatives and Republican control of the state legislature this year, but we have to do the work to get that message out because a lot of people forget there’s an election.”All 100 seats in the house of delegates, where Republicans held a 52-48 majority during the most recent legislative session, will be up for grabs. Democrats will be defending a 22-18 advantage in the state senate, where every seat will also be in play this November. The implementation of a new legislative map, which fueled a wave of retirements among veteran Virginia legislators, has injected more uncertainty into the elections.As of now, control of the legislature appears to be a true toss-up. According to a survey conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University in July, 47% of Virginians want Republicans in control of the house of delegates, compared with 41% who would prefer a Democratic majority. When asked about control of the state senate, Virginians were evenly divided, with 44% of respondents preferring a Democratic majority and another 44% supporting a Republican takeover.A fully red general assembly would be a gamechanger for Youngkin, who has faced a legislative blockade from Senate Democrats. A Republican takeover would erase the last major barrier in Youngkin’s quest to enact his full agenda – including a 15-week abortion ban.“This race is first and foremost about abortion,” said Susan Swecker, chair of the Democratic party of Virginia. “If it hadn’t been for the Democratic blue brick wall in the state senate the last two years, abortion would be banned in Virginia.”The last holdout in the southIn the wake of the supreme court’s decision last year to overturn Roe v Wade, southern states controlled by Republicans passed a wave of laws severely restricting access to abortion or, in some cases, banning it altogether. Virginia – where abortion is currently legal until about 26 weeks – has become the last remaining southern state without extensive abortion restrictions, but that status could soon evaporate if Republicans have their way.Youngkin has indicated he supports a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest and the safety of the mother. The governor has framed the proposal, which senate Democrats already defeated once earlier this year, as a point of consensus among a wide swath of Virginia voters.“I believe that there’s a moment for Virginians to come together over a very, very difficult topic, and Virginians elected a pro-life governor,” Youngkin said last month.But polls challenge the perception of a 15-week ban as an area of common ground across the state. According to a Washington Post-Schar School survey conducted in March, 49% of Virginia voters support a 15-week ban with exceptions, while 46% oppose it. Voters also expressed criticism of Youngkin’s stance on abortion, with 33% approving of his handling of the issue and 45% disapproving.Threats to abortion access appear to be weighing heavily on Virginians’ minds as they head for the polls. Sara Ratcliffe, a Democratic candidate for the house of delegates who spoke at the Orange rally, said abortion was often the first issue voters mention when she knocks on doors.“As the dominoes have fallen, especially in the redder states and in the states surrounding us here in the south, people have realized what’s at stake,” Ratcliffe said. “People are scared, and people are worried, which is why they’re turning out and they’re voting on this issue.”That fear and anger was palpable among the Democratic attendees of the Orange rally, several of whom cited protecting abortion access as their top priority for November.“People younger than me now don’t have the same freedoms I had when I was a woman of childbearing age, and I feel that’s not fair,” said Lynn Meyers, a 78-year-old from Locust Grove.Bill Maiden, a 58-year-old voter from Culpepper, added, “Even my friends that are Republican, they are concerned about [abortion access] too. They don’t agree with Youngkin’s stance on this.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionConcerns over abortion restrictions contributed to Republicans’ disappointing performance in the 2022 midterms, and the issue could now threaten the party’s hopes in Virginia.Despite the potential political liability of a 15-week ban, Democrats fear that Youngkin will not hesitate to approve an even more severe policy if Republicans flip the senate. They often remind voters that, shortly after Roe was overturned last year, Youngkin said, “Any bill that comes to my desk I will sign happily and gleefully in order to protect life.”Youngkin bets big on 2023Three years ago, most Virginians had never heard the name Glenn Youngkin. A former co-CEO of the private equity firm the Carlyle Group, Youngkin’s 2021 gubernatorial bid marked his first foray into electoral politics.He defeated six primary opponents by carefully toeing the line between endorsing many of Donald Trump’s policy positions on culture war issues without completely alienating the independent voters who eventually fueled his victory in the general election. Youngkin’s win over the former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe was all the more surprising given that it came just one year after Joe Biden beat Trump in Virginia by 10 points.“The guy never ran for office before, but he just had really good instincts [on] how to strike that balance and get the support of the [‘Make America Great Again’] Republicans while not seeming threatening at all to swing voters at the same time,” Rozell said. “Not many Republicans these days can do that.”Those instincts appear to have served Youngkin well in office so far. The VCU survey conducted in July showed Youngkin’s approval rating stood at +18, as 49% of Virginians approved of the governor’s job performance and 31% disapproved. Biden trailed far behind Youngkin at -15, with 39% of Virginians approving of his job performance and 54% disapproving.Those approval numbers have made Knotts more optimistic about Republicans’ prospects in November. “We have a very popular governor who is really getting in and doing some programs that are good for Democrats, Republicans [and] independents,” Knotts said. “So I think this could be a really good year for us.”Youngkin’s popularity has also spurred talk of a potential presidential bid, and the Fox News owner, Rupert Murdoch, has reportedly told allies that he would like to see the Virginia governor jump into the 2024 Republican primary.Youngkin’s success or failure in November could decide his fate on the national stage, and he has dedicated substantial political capital to bringing home a win for Republicans. Youngkin’s state Pac, Spirit of Virginia, raised an impressive $5.9m during the second quarter of the year to promote Republican campaigns.“This is a unifying agenda that is resonating across the Commonwealth,” said Dave Rexrode, chair of the Spirit of Virginia. “Virginians want leaders in the general assembly who will work with Governor Youngkin to move our commonwealth forward.”Beyond Youngkin’s own political future, the outcome in Virginia this November could provide a roadmap for both parties in 2024, as they battle it out for the White House.…When Barack Obama won Virginia in the 2008 presidential race, he became the first Democrat to carry the state since 1964, and the victory marked a sea change for his party. Democrats have won Virginia in every presidential election since Obama’s landmark victory, and the party now holds both of Virginia’s US Senate seats.Their wins have led some Democrats to downplay Virginia’s status as a battleground state, but Swecker warns that would be a dangerous oversight.“People got very excited about the successes we had and took for granted that we were a blue state,” Swecker said. “Those of us who are in the trenches know better.”Youngkin’s victory in 2021 demonstrated how Republicans can still play statewide in Virginia, and the governor hopes that the legislative races this year will prove his win was no fluke.“I am curious whether the Republicans are able to carry that momentum into this election cycle and what it might suggest about the Republican base and how deeply engaged it is and activated going into the 2024 elections,” Rozell said.Regardless of the outcome in Virginia, the November results will be closely scrutinized by both parties to spot potential strengths and vulnerabilities heading into 2024, when the White House and Congress will be up for grabs.As someone who has closely studied Virginia politics since the 1980s, Rozell has endured much talk about the state being a guarantee for one party or the other over the years, but he insists that Virginia remains, as ever, a battleground.“Don’t assume that Virginia is a Democratic lock any more,” Rozell said. “And those 13 electoral votes can be really important next year.” More

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      Virginia Primary Elections 2023: Live Results

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      Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press.Produced by Michael Andre, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Irineo Cabreros, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Tiff Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Martín González Gómez, Will Houp, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. Lee, Ilana Marcus, Charlie Smart and Isaac White. Editing by Wilson Andrews, William P. Davis, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Christine Zhang. More

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      As Prosecutors Revisit Police Killings, Charges Are Still Rare

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      Pamela Price, a new district attorney in Northern California, is the latest to reopen cases that had seemingly been shut, including one from more than 15 years ago.Agustin Gonsalez was shot dead in 2018 by police officers in Hayward, Calif., when he refused to drop a sharp object during a confrontation on a dark street.Andrew Moppin-Buckskin was killed by Oakland officers in 2007 after he ran away following a car chase, hid under a vehicle and failed to comply with their demands.Two years ago, Mario Gonzalez died after he was pinned on the ground for more than five minutes by officers in Alameda, Calif.In all three cases, prosecutors determined that the police should not be criminally charged, seemingly closing the book.But shortly after she became the district attorney of Alameda County in January, Pamela Price initiated a new review of those cases and five others in one of the most extensive re-examinations of police killings launched by progressive prosecutors.Ms. Price’s review is notable because her predecessors had already cleared the officers of wrongdoing and two of the reopened cases occurred more than 15 years ago.As high-profile instances of police brutality shocked the public in recent years and raised questions about official law enforcement accounts, liberal prosecutors campaigned on the promise that they would review cases that they felt were hastily closed without charges. Their efforts to revisit old cases have won praise from the activists and liberal Democrats who voted for them.But the re-examinations so far have rarely led to criminal charges.“To reopen a police use-of-force case is, in many ways, a herculean task,” said Steve Descano, the commonwealth’s attorney in Fairfax County, Va. He lost in court after he charged two federal Park Police officers for the 2017 shooting of a man who fled a car crash, a case that the Justice Department previously reviewed and declined to pursue.The incidents almost never have evidence as stark as the bystander video showing George Floyd being pinned to the ground in 2020 for more than nine minutes by Derek Chauvin, a former Minneapolis police officer who was convicted of murdering Mr. Floyd.The circumstances often are more ambiguous, the footage less telling. And once a district attorney writes a lengthy memo detailing why criminal charges are unjustified against a police officer, it can be difficult for a successor to overcome those arguments, absent new evidence.“Everybody is going to go through it again, and the outcome in all probability is going to be the same,” said Jim Pasco, the executive director of the National Fraternal Order of Police. “And what’s Einstein’s definition of insanity?”The biggest hurdle for pursuing criminal charges is the wide latitude that officers have to use force. State legislatures, including California’s, have tried to narrow that ability. But officers generally can still use lethal force when they feel they or others could be killed, a level of immunity that law enforcement officials say is necessary to ensure the public’s safety.Pamela Price, the new district attorney of Alameda County, Calif., announced this year that she would review eight police killings, including one dating to 2007.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesAlameda County, Ms. Price’s jurisdiction, covers a large swath of the East Bay across from San Francisco, containing 14 cities and numerous police departments. In the county seat of Oakland, where the Black Panther Party emerged in the 1960s, a legacy of radical politics is intertwined with a troubled history of law enforcement. The Oakland Police Department has been under federal oversight for more than two decades.Ms. Price campaigned on a liberal platform that, besides reviewing old cases, included removing local residents from death row and resentencing inmates serving life sentences — an effort, she said, to restore public trust. Since taking office, she has directed her staff to seek the lowest possible prison sentence for most crimes.She said that in the past, prosecutors routinely gave officers a pass when they killed someone on the job, and she wants questionable police killings to face the same rigor that other criminal cases get.“Every case that we’re looking at now was determined under a double standard,” Ms. Price said in an interview. “Police officers received a different standard of justice than everyday people.”Ms. Price is among a growing cadre of progressive prosecutors elected over the last decade, beginning with the 2016 elections of Kim Foxx in Chicago and Kimberly Gardner in St. Louis, on promises of reducing jail populations and holding police accountable. The movement gained steam after Floyd’s murder.Some prominent district attorneys have since faced a backlash over crime concerns. Chesa Boudin was recalled last year in San Francisco, while Ms. Gardner resigned last week as she faced criticism for her handling of violent crime. Ms. Foxx is not running for re-election next year and has endured criticism from moderates and conservatives, especially for her support of eliminating cash bail statewide.In Maine, a police officer has never been prosecuted for an on-duty killing. But in July 2020, Natasha Irving, the district attorney for four counties, said she would seek charges for the 2007 police shooting death of Gregori Jackson, who was drunk and ran away after a routine traffic stop in Waldoboro, the town where Ms. Irving grew up.Three years later, however, Ms. Irving said that based on the attorney general’s review of the forensics from the case, she will not file charges.“It’s just not going to be a provable case,” she said in an interview.Karla Gonsalez stood at a memorial to her son at the site in Hayward, Calif., where he was shot and killed by police officers.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesIn the Virginia case pursued by Mr. Descano, Bijan Ghaisar, 25, was involved in a minor car crash and then fled in his Jeep, pursued by two officers who cornered Mr. Ghaisar in a residential neighborhood. When the vehicle moved toward a police car, they opened fire, killing him.Mr. Descano brought a case, but a judge dismissed the charges, ruling the officers reasonably feared they were in danger. His efforts to pursue the case further were rejected by the state’s attorney general and the Justice Department.Such reviews offer the possibility of justice for still grieving families but also may unrealistically raise their hopes. Karla Gonsalez, the mother of Mr. Gonsalez, the man who was killed in Hayward, said she was torn when she heard Ms. Price was reopening her son’s case.Television outlets began replaying the body camera footage of Mr. Gonsalez’s confrontation with police. For his family, all of the anger, grief and unresolved questions came rushing back. Why had the officers not tried to de-escalate the situation?“I was excited to know that it was going to be opened up again,” Ms. Gonsalez said. “At the same time, I was very nervous that it was going to be another roadblock, another failure.”Less than 2 percent of police killings result in charges, according to Philip M. Stinson, a professor of criminal justice at Bowling Green State University. That figure has not budged since 2020. The number of people killed by the police is holding steady — last year it was 1,200, compared with 1,147 in 2022, according to Mapping Police Violence.“From where I sit, nothing has changed,” Mr. Stinson said.In Los Angeles County, George Gascón, who was elected district attorney in 2020, appointed a special prosecutor to reopen four cases in which his predecessor declined to file charges.Ryan Young for The New York TimesIn Los Angeles County, George Gascón, who was elected district attorney in 2020, appointed a special prosecutor to reopen four cases in which his predecessor, Jackie Lacey, declined to file charges. He also asked an independent team of experts to review more than 300 previous use-of-force cases to see if the evidence warranted criminal charges.The special prosecutor, Lawrence Middleton, had secured convictions in a 1993 federal trial against Los Angeles Police Department officers for beating Rodney King. In the new cases, he has secured indictments against two officers in the 2018 shooting death of Christopher Deandre Mitchell, who was driving a stolen vehicle and had an air rifle between his legs when he was confronted by officers in a grocery store parking lot. (“Both officers’ use of deadly force was reasonable under the circumstances,” Ms. Lacey wrote in a 2019 memo.)The re-examinations themselves take time, and liberal prosecutors may yet file criminal charges against more officers in past cases. But they said that charges should not be the only benchmark of whether their reviews are worthwhile.“I think there is huge value to reopening a case if there is probable cause, or if there is evidence that seems compelling in any way,” Ms. Irving, the prosecutor in Maine, said. “Yes, part of it is to send a message to people who would be bad actors. Part of it is to send a message to families that have lost loved ones, or individuals who have been harmed, that they count.”Ed Obayashi, a California-based expert in use of force who trains law enforcement, said in 2021 that Mario Gonzalez did not seem to be a threat to the public in Alameda and questioned why officers restrained him before he died. The police had responded to a call that Mr. Gonzalez, 26, was acting strangely in a park and talking to himself.Mr. Obayashi said this week that he did not fault Ms. Price for reviewing the case, but he also felt that if there was consensus in the Alameda County District Attorney’s Office under her predecessor, Ms. Price should not have reopened it.“It’s a big concern to law enforcement because these types of decisions, to revisit old cases that former prosecutors have decided that no charges should be brought against the officer, it’s political,” Mr. Obayashi said. “It’s politically driven.”Ms. Price’s review also includes two cases from 15 years ago that occurred seven months apart and involved the same officer killing men who ran away after traffic stops, including Mr. Moppin-Buckskin. The officer, Hector Jimenez, was cleared in each case and remains with the Oakland Police Department.“For the life of me I can’t understand what Ms. Price thinks she’s doing with those kinds of cases, some 15 years after they occurred,” said Michael Rains, a lawyer for Mr. Jimenez.In Hayward, the city agreed to pay $3.3 million to settle a federal lawsuit with Agustin Gonsalez’s family but said it was a way to support his children rather than an admission of wrongdoing. The city said in April that there appeared to be no new evidence that warranted reopening the case.Mr. Gonsalez was shot in November 2018 after police officers confronted him. He was suicidal and was holding a razor blade. He refused to drop the blade and approached the officers with his arms outstretched. That’s when the two veteran police officers shot him 12 times.Karla Gonsalez recently sat in her sister’s kitchen and described her son as a father of two who was an Oakland sports fan and often drove nearly 400 miles south to Disneyland with his season pass. In the corner of her living room was a makeshift shrine, with a flickering candle and a crucifix draped over his portrait.Cynthia Nunes, Mr. Gonsalez’s cousin, said her family was grateful his case was being reopened. But they want more.“Charges actually have to be brought forward, too,” she said. “The system needs to change.”Julie Bosman More