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      Swing Voters Scramble Traditional Republican and Democratic Political Coalitions

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      ROCKY RIVER, Ohio — A few weeks before Ohio’s Senate primaries, Kristen Bentz stood outside a grocery store in suburban Cleveland, feeling torn about the race.Ms. Bentz, 46, disliked the idea of one-party Democratic control in Washington, and she thought President Biden had been “slow to respond” to pressing challenges like inflation and high gas prices. But she was also alarmed by the hard-right tilt of the Republican primary contest in her state — and horrified by the influence that Donald J. Trump still seemed to wield.“I’m just getting more and more disgusted with the Republican Party,” Ms. Bentz, an X-ray technician from North Olmsted, Ohio, said in a follow-up interview this month, explaining why she was inclined to support the Democratic Senate nominee, Tim Ryan. “It’s just breaking my heart.”Persuadable voters like Ms. Bentz are rare in today’s intensely polarized political environment. But interviews with dozens of voters, elected officials and party strategists in recent months make plain that in this volatile moment, a narrow but racially diverse band of voters is still up for grabs for both parties. These Americans are upending traditional assumptions about swing voters and scrambling longstanding political coalitions in highly unpredictable ways.Representative Tim Ryan, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio, at a rally on the eve of the state’s May primary.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesSome are white suburban voters like Ms. Bentz who have historically leaned right but detest Mr. Trump and election denialism, recoil from far-reaching abortion bans and often support more gun restrictions, especially after the recent onslaught of mass shootings. And they could play a powerful role in states like Pennsylvania, where Republicans nominated a far-right election denier, Doug Mastriano, for governor, and Georgia, where the Republican Senate nominee, Herschel Walker, has repeatedly stumbled. Similar dynamics could play out in states including Michigan and Arizona, where voters head into Primary Day next week.At the same time — amid high inflation, still-expensive gas, Mr. Biden’s abysmal approval ratings and fears of a recession — there are urgent warning signs for Democrats across the electorate, including with bedrock base constituencies. Some voters of color now appear, by varying degrees, increasingly open to supporting Republicans, while Democrats warn that others may sit out the election.“When we see a better economy in the hands of a Republican, that’s why we tend to lean towards voting for somebody in the Republican Party,” said Audrey Gonzalez, 20, of Glendale, Ariz., discussing why Republicans are gaining ground with some Latino voters.Ms. Gonzalez is the daughter of immigrants from El Salvador and Mexico, she said, and the first in her family to attend college. She voted for Mr. Biden two years ago as a protest against Mr. Trump and what she saw as his racist invective. But she was leaning toward Republicans this year, she said, citing several issues including economic concerns.Amid still-high gas prices and fears of a recession, Democrats see signs of trouble across the electorate, including with bedrock constituencies. Joseph Prezioso/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFor the first time in a New York Times/Siena College national survey, released this month, Democrats had a larger share of support among white college graduates than among nonwhite voters. And a survey, conducted this month for the AARP by a bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, found that in congressional battleground districts, Democrats were underperforming with Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters over age 50 compared with past elections — with especially worrisome signs for Democrats among the latter two constituencies.Among Hispanic and Asian American voters over 50, Democrats were ahead on the generic congressional ballot by just five and three percentage points, with Democrats doing notably better with Hispanic and Asian American college graduates than with those who did not have a four-year college degree, the survey found.In the 2018 midterms, Democrats won 69 percent of Latino voters and 77 percent of Asian American voters overall, according to exit polls. That data is not an apples-to-apples comparison, but it does suggest significant shifts among diverse groups of voters that Democrats have hoped to cement as part of their base.Key Themes From the 2022 Midterm Elections So FarCard 1 of 6The state of the midterms. More

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      For First Time Since 1946, New Yorkers Have Just 2 Choices for Governor

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      ALBANY, N.Y. — New York voters who dislike the Democrat or Republican candidates for governor have traditionally been able to cast their ballots for a long-shot candidate from any number of so-called third parties.There are the perennials, like the Green and Libertarian Parties, and the occasional, like the Sapient Party in 2014 or the Serve America Movement four years later. And 2010 was a banner year that featured candidates from the Freedom Party, the Anti-Prohibition Party and, memorably, the Rent Is Too Damn High Party.But this year, for the first time in over 75 years, the state ballot appears destined to offer only two choices: Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, and Representative Lee Zeldin, a Republican.The paucity of options is largely due to former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, who championed changes in election law two years ago that made it far more difficult for third parties to get on the ballot. The changes to ballot access law tripled the number of voter signatures required for groups to get on the November ballot and forced political parties to qualify every two years instead of four.The steep climb to get on the ballot has prompted legal challenges, including one being heard this week in State Supreme Court in Albany, in a lawsuit filed by the Libertarian Party. The party’s nominee for governor, Larry Sharpe, argued that the rules are so tough that only the entrenched and connected can earn the right to appear on a ballot in New York.But even mainstream candidates have had their problems.Mr. Zeldin and Ms. Hochul will each appear on two party lines: The governor will also run on the Working Families Party line, and Mr. Zeldin will run for the Conservative Party.But Mr. Zeldin, an underdog in the race, wanted his name under a third party and gathered petitions for the Independence Party line. It did not end well.The State Board of Elections invalidated Zeldin’s Independence Party application on July 12, after a challenge from the Libertarians and others. An investigation revealed such a high volume of flawed petitions — with duplicates carefully ensconced amid hundreds of otherwise valid pages — that critics say it’s hard to imagine it was an accident.“The way the pages were distributed throughout the petition, it seems to me that it’s an obvious attempt to put together enough signatures to qualify and to obfuscate the fraud,” said Henry Berger, an election law expert and former New York City councilman. “This one is not complicated. This is simple, blatant fraud.”The Zeldin campaign attributed the flawed petitions to mistakes made by “an entirely grass-roots effort.” New York’s 2022 ElectionsAs prominent Democratic officials seek to defend their records, Republicans see opportunities to make inroads in general election races.N.Y. Governor’s Race: Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the issue of abortion rights has the potential to be a potent one in the battle between Gov. Kathy Hochul and Representative Lee Zeldin.10th Congressional District: Half a century after she became one of the youngest women ever to serve in Congress, Elizabeth Holtzman is running once again for a seat in the House of Representatives.12th Congressional District: As Representatives Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, two titans of New York politics, battle it out, Suraj Patel is trying to eke out his own path to victory.Yet Eric Amidon, who describes himself on Twitter as Zeldin’s campaign manager, signed off on all 47 volumes of the petition submitted to the state, affirming in the official paperwork that the submission contained enough signatures to qualify and listing himself as the “contact person to correct deficiencies.”Mr. Amidon, who gave a Zeldin campaign email address on the petitions, told The New York Times in an email that he was “shocked to hear there were copies placed in the petitions” and said he was “positive no one working for the campaign made any copies.”“We run a virtually paper-free campaign and don’t even own a copier,” he said. But Mr. Amidon and the Zeldin campaign ignored follow-up questions and wouldn’t say who assembled the petitions, or whether paid vendors helped out. As the deadline for turning in the signatures drew near in late May, a post on the Facebook page of the far right group Long Island Loud Majority practically begged for help to get the signatures to boost Zeldin’s political fortunes.“Anyone looking to make some extra money this weekend (30 an hour) and help out OUR NEXT GOVERNOR OF NEW YORK LEE ZELDIN. We need people to get Petitions signed to get Lee on the Independent Line,” the post said. It urged those interested to “contact Jordana at the Zeldin team” and listed an email address affiliated with Zeldin’s campaign website.Jordana McMahon, a paid Zeldin campaign staffer, was listed as a witness to some of the signature pages, including at least one page that was used twice and got thrown out.Emails to the Zeldin campaign website went unanswered, and Mr. Zeldin’s campaign did not respond to questions about the Facebook post or the role of paid workers or vendors in the signature drive.Other witnesses of signature pages used at least twice in the Zeldin petition included the Republican county clerk in Chautauqua County, Larry Barmore, and Assemblyman David DiPietro, a Republican from western New York. Mr. DiPietro’s office declined to comment.Mr. Barmore said he understood that county-level Republican leaders helped collect signatures so Mr. Zeldin could get on the ballot as an Independence Party candidate. He gave his signatures to Nacole Ellis, the Republican Party chairwoman in Chautauqua County, and Ms. Ellis said she gave them to the Zeldin campaign.It hasn’t been lost on critics that Mr. Zeldin, as a member of Congress on Jan. 6, voted against the certification of Arizona and Pennsylvania, states that President Biden won. Jerrel Harvey, a spokesman for Ms. Hochul, said that Mr. Zeldin and his advisers were “focused on deceiving voters and undermining elections, whether it’s for governor of New York or president of the United States.”“It’s no surprise that someone who attempted to overturn the 2020 presidential election is now attempting to lie and defraud his way onto the Independence Party ballot line,” Mr. Harvey said.Andrew Kolstee, the Libertarian Party secretary who objected to the Zeldin submission and laid out all his findings on a website called Zeldincopies.com, called for state authorities to find out what happened and punish anyone who broke the law.“This was a deliberate attempt to defraud the voter, and those involved should be held responsible,” he said.The Board of Elections declined to comment about whether its enforcement division would be taking any action against the Zeldin campaign. A spokesman for the Albany County district attorney, P. David Soares, said it had gotten no referrals but would defer to Attorney General Letitia James. Her office declined to comment.In court this week, Mr. Sharpe, the Libertarian candidate for governor, tried to convince a skeptical-sounding Judge David Weinstein that his constitutional rights were violated in late June when the State Board of Elections invoked the Cuomo-era law and rejected his application for a spot on the ballot.Mr. Sharpe said that getting the required 45,000 signatures, up from 15,000, requires a huge and expensive effort — with dozens of people on the payroll at cost of $8,000 a day or more.Howie Hawkins was the Green Party candidate for governor in the last three statewide elections. His party lost its ballot spot.Nathaniel Brooks for The New York Times“We have a situation now where the only people who would ever want to run for office are those who are already in office,” Mr. Sharpe said. While acknowledging nearly all third-party candidates lose, he said voters showing up to the polls to say “not you two” are engaging in a high form of political protest — one that will be lost not only in races for governor but in future presidential contests, too.The judge, who pointed to a prior federal ruling upholding the new state ballot access law, said on Monday he would issue a written decision shortly.The Libertarian Party was one of at least seven small political parties that failed to get on the ballot this year after the onerous new ballot access law went into effect.Not since 1946, when Republican Thomas E. Dewey defeated Democrat James M. Mead in a landslide, have New York voters been reduced to just two choices for governor. That year, according to a report in The Times, three minor parties — the Socialist, Industrial Government and Socialist Workers parties — got knocked off the ballot because of “defective nominating petitions.”Howie Hawkins, the Green Party candidate for governor in the last three statewide elections, said voters are surprised when he tells them his party lost its spot on the ballot this year. He is hoping the Legislature will step in and make it easier next time.“I don’t think it’s a lost cause — although it’s a tough fight,” he said. More

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      Jan. 6 Hearings Invoke Patriotism to Urge Voters to Break With Trump

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      On Thursday, the Jan. 6 committee made the case that Donald J. Trump’s conduct had been a violation of his Oath of Office.The Jan. 6 hearings at times have resembled a criminal trial in absentia for former President Donald J. Trump. On Thursday night, the proceedings suddenly felt more like a court-martial.A 20-year Navy veteran and a lieutenant colonel in the Air National Guard led the questioning by House members. Five times, Mr. Trump was accused of “dereliction of duty.” The nation’s highest-ranking military officer provided withering recorded testimony of the commander in chief’s failure to command. A former Marine and deputy national security adviser testified in person that the former president had flouted the very Constitution he had sworn to protect and defend.Over eight days and evenings, the Jan. 6 committee has relied almost exclusively on Republican witnesses to build its case that Mr. Trump bore personal responsibility for inspiring and even encouraging the riot that ransacked the Capitol. But on Thursday, the committee’s casting, choreography and script all appeared carefully coordinated to make a subtly different case to a particular subset of the American people — voters who have not yet been persuaded to break with Mr. Trump — that their patriotism itself dictates that they break with him now. “Whatever your politics, whatever you think about the outcome of the election, we as Americans must all agree on this — Donald Trump’s conduct on Jan. 6 was a supreme violation of his oath of office and a complete dereliction of his duty to our nation,” said Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, a Republican and Air Force veteran who helped lead the questioning.Witness after witness portrayed in vivid detail how Mr. Trump consumed hours of Fox News coverage on Jan. 6, 2021, in his private dining room, rather than directing American forces to intervene and stop the bloodshed.Video clips of former President Donald J. Trump appeared during the House Select committee hearing on Thursday night.Doug Mills/The New York Times“No call? Nothing? Zero?” Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said incredulously in audio played from his deposition.The summer hearings have been a blockbuster by Capitol Hill standards, drawing big audiences and redefining what a congressional investigation — at least one without dissenting voices — should look like. The season finale, as it were, brought together all the plot lines of the previous episodes to portray Mr. Trump as a singular threat to American democracy, a man who put his own ambitions before everything else, including the well-being of lawmakers and his own vice president — and continued to do so even after the rioting and violence had subsided.“I don’t want to say, ‘The election is over,’” Mr. Trump said in an outtake of the taped address he delivered to the nation the day after the assault, which was obtained by the committee and played on Thursday. “I just want to say Congress has certified the results without saying the election is over, OK?”Weaving together clips of his own aides testifying about their frustrations, live questioning and never-before-seen video footage, the committee used the language of patriotism to try to disqualify Mr. Trump as a future candidate by appealing to that ever-more-endangered species in American politics: genuine swing voters whose opinions on the attack were not fully calcified.“He could have stopped it and chose not to,” said Deva Moore of Corpus Christi, Texas, who said she came away from the hearings “horrified.” “I think he is guilty of insurrection. He encouraged his supporters, who have every right to support him — he encouraged them to violence and murder.”Key Revelations From the Jan. 6 HearingsCard 1 of 9Making a case against Trump. More

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      Los votantes jóvenes están hartos de sus líderes (mucho) mayores

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      Representados por políticos que a menudo les triplican la edad, muchos votantes menores de 30 años en Estados Unidos están ansiosos de rostros e ideas nuevos.Alexandra Chadwick fue a las urnas en 2020 con un solo objetivo: sacar a Donald Trump. A sus 22 años, en su primera experiencia como votante, vio a Joe Biden más como salvaguardia que como una figura política inspiradora, era alguien capaz de contener las acciones que amenazaban el acceso al aborto, el control de armas y la política climática.Dos años después, la Corte Suprema ha erosionado las protecciones federales en estos tres temas, y la conclusión de Chadwick es que tanto Biden como otros líderes demócratas no tienen la imaginación y la voluntad necesarias para contratacar. El problema es la brecha generacional, que no le pareció tan importante en otro momento, pero que ahora le parece abismal.“¿Cómo puedes dirigir correctamente a tu país si tu mente está atascada en una época que ya pasó hace 50, 60 o 70 años?”, cuestionó Chadwick, quien trabaja en servicios al cliente en Rialto, California, en referencia al gran número de líderes septuagenarios que dirigen su partido. “No es lo mismo, y las personas no son iguales, así que tus ideas antiguas ya no van a funcionar”.Si bien hay electores de todas las edades que cuestionan el liderazgo político del país, el descontento de pocos grupos se percibe tan unánime como el de los jóvenes.Una encuesta de The New York Times y Siena College reveló que solo el uno por ciento de los jóvenes entre 18 y 29 años aprueba decididamente la manera en que Biden hace su trabajo. No solo eso, sino que el 94 por ciento de los demócratas menores de 30 años afirman que quieren que otro candidato se postule dentro de dos años. De todos los grupos de edad, una mayor proporción de electores jóvenes dijo que no votarían por Biden ni por Trump en el supuesto de que se enfrentaran de nuevo en 2024.Los números son una advertencia clara para los demócratas, que batallan para evitar una paliza en las elecciones intermedias de noviembre. Los jóvenes, que desde hace tiempo han sido la facción menos segura de la coalición del partido, marcharon a favor del control de armas, se congregaron para expresarse en contra de Trump y ayudaron a impulsar una oleada demócrata en las elecciones intermedias de 2018. Esos jóvenes todavía apoyan a los demócratas en temas que no dejan de ganar importancia.Pero cuatro años después, muchos se perciben indiferentes y desanimados; solo un 32 por ciento de ellos afirma que está “casi seguro” de votar en noviembre, según la encuesta. Casi la mitad cree que su voto no hizo ninguna diferencia.Algunas entrevistas con estos jóvenes revelan que las tensiones generacionales les causan frustración. Son electores que han alcanzado la edad adulta en un ambiente de enfrentamientos raciales, conflictos políticos, inflación elevada y una pandemia, y han tenido que recurrir a políticos que les triplican la edad en busca de ayuda.Con frecuencia, esos dirigentes mayores hablan de la defensa de las instituciones y la recuperación de normas, mientras que los electores jóvenes dicen que están más interesados en los resultados. Muchos comentaron que desean más cambios grandes, como un tercer partido viable y una nueva generación de líderes jóvenes. Señalan que ansían la implementación de medidas innovadoras para resolver los problemas que heredarán, en vez de regresar a lo que funcionó en el pasado.“Los miembros del Congreso, todos ellos, sin duda, han atravesado épocas muy traumáticas en su vida y de caos en el país”, explicó John Della Volpe, quien estudia las opiniones de los jóvenes en su calidad de director de encuestas en el Instituto de Política de la Escuela Harvard Kennedy. “Pero los miembros del Congreso también han visto a Estados Unidos en sus mejores épocas. En esos momentos nos unimos. Eso es algo que la generación Z no ha tenido”.A sus 79 años, Biden es el presidente más viejo en la historia de Estados Unidos y uno de los muchos dirigentes del Partido Demócrata que rondan los ochenta años o ya son octogenarios. Nancy Pelosi, presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes, tiene 82 años. El líder de la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes, Steny Hoyer, tiene 83 años. Chuck Schumer, el líder de la mayoría en el Senado, de 71 años, es el bebé de la camada. Trump tiene 76 años.En una repetición de las elecciones de 2020, Biden obtendría una delantera del 38 al 30 por ciento entre los jóvenes, pero el 22 por ciento de los electores de entre 18 y 29 años afirmaron que no votarían si esos candidatos fueran las opciones, por mucho la mayor proporción de entre los diferentes rangos de edad.Para Ellis McCarthy, “ya sea Biden o Trump, nadie trata de ser una voz para las personas como yo”.Brian Kaiser para The New York TimesEsos votantes incluyen a Ellis McCarthy, de 24 años, que tiene algunos trabajos de medio tiempo en Bellevue, Kentucky. McCarthy dice que anhela un gobierno que sea “completamente nuevo”.El padre de McCarthy, electricista y miembro del sindicato que enseña en una escuela técnica local, conoció a Biden el verano pasado cuando el presidente visitó las instalaciones de capacitación. Los dos hombres hablaron sobre su sindicato y su trabajo, dos cosas que amaba. No mucho después, su padre se enfermó, fue hospitalizado y, después de su recuperación, quedó amargado por el sistema de atención médica y lo que su familia considera como el fracaso de las estrategias de Biden para arreglarlo.“Parece que ya sea Biden o Trump, nadie trata de ser una voz para las personas como yo”, dijo. “Los trabajadores se sienten abandonados”.Denange Sanchez, estudiante de 20 años en el Eastern Florida State College, de Palm Bay, Florida, opina que Biden es “insulso” en sus promesas.La madre de Sanchez es propietaria de una empresa de servicios domésticos de limpieza y se encarga de la mayor parte del trabajo de limpieza, con ayuda de Denange en lo posible. Toda su familia (incluida su madre, que padece una enfermedad del corazón y tiene un marcapasos) ha batallado con brotes de COVID-19 sin seguro médico. Incluso cuando estaba enferma, su madre estaba despierta a todas horas preparando remedios caseros, relató Sanchez.“Todos decían que íbamos a acabar con este virus. Biden hizo esas promesas. Pero ahora ya nadie toma en serio la pandemia, aunque todavía nos está rondando. Es de lo más frustrante”, se quejó. Sanchez, que estudia medicina, también incluyó la eliminación de la deuda estudiantil en la lista de promesas que Biden no ha cumplido.Los políticos y encuestadores demócratas son muy conscientes del problema que enfrentan con los votantes jóvenes, pero insisten en que hay tiempo para involucrarlos en los temas que les interesan. Las recientes decisiones de la Corte Suprema que eliminan el derecho constitucional al aborto, limitan la capacidad de los estados para controlar el porte de armas de fuego y recortan los poderes regulatorios del gobierno federal sobre las emisiones que contribuyen al calentamiento climático recién ahora están comenzando a arraigarse en la conciencia de los votantes, dijo Jefrey Pollock, encuestador de los demócratas de la Cámara de Representantes.“Ya no estamos hablando de una teoría; estamos hablando de una Corte Suprema que está haciendo retroceder al país 50 años o más”, dijo. “Si no podemos transmitir ese mensaje, entonces deberíamos avergonzarnos”.En contraste con los electores maduros, que en general identificaron a la economía como uno de sus principales intereses, para los votantes jóvenes solo es un tema más, relacionado en cierta medida con el aborto, el estado de la democracia estadounidense y las políticas aplicables a las armas.Eso pone en un dilema a los candidatos demócratas de distritos en los que las elecciones serán muy reñidas, muchos de los cuales creen que su mensaje para las elecciones debería concentrarse casi por completo en la economía, pero eso podría costarles el grupo vigorizante de los jóvenes.Tate Sutter dice que está frustrado por la inacción sobre el cambio climático.Rozette Rago para The New York TimesTate Sutter, de 21 años, siente esa total falta de conexión. Originario de Auburn, California, e inscrito en el Middlebury College en Vermont, Sutter relató que cuando vio los fuegos artificiales del Cuatro de Julio sintió escalofríos por todo el cuerpo, pues pronto iniciará la temporada de incendios y el plan enérgico del gobierno federal para combatir el calentamiento global sigue estancado en el Congreso. Contó que no tenía ninguna duda de que podía ver un incendio incipiente en las colinas del sur.“El clima es un tema muy importante en mi perspectiva política”, comentó, consternado porque los demócratas no hablan mucho del tema. “Es muy frustrante”.Sutter dijo que entendía los límites de los poderes de Biden con un Senado dividido. Pero también dijo que entiende el poder de la presidencia y no que Biden lo ejerza de manera efectiva.“Con la edad ganas mucha experiencia y sabiduría y aprendes cómo haces las cosas. Pero, en cuanto a la percepción, parece estar desconectado de la gente de mi generación”, dijo.Después de años de sentir que los políticos no se dirigen a personas como él, Juan Flores, de 23 años, dijo que ha decidido concentrar su atención en iniciativas locales sometidas a votación relacionadas con problemas como la indigencia o la falta de vivienda, pues considera que es más probable que tengan cierto impacto en su vida. Flores cursó estudios de análisis de datos, pero conduce un camión de entregas para Amazon en San José, California. En esa zona, el precio promedio de las casas supera el millón de dólares, por lo que es muy difícil (prácticamente imposible) que los residentes sobrevivan con un solo ingreso.“Me parece que muchos políticos vienen de familias acomodadas”, mencionó. “La mayoría de ellos no comprende en realidad todo lo que vivimos la mayoría de los ciudadanos estadounidenses”.La encuesta Times/Siena College descubrió que el 46 por ciento de los electores jóvenes prefieren que los demócratas controlen el Congreso, mientras que el 28 por ciento quiere que los republicanos lo hagan. Más de uno de cada cuatro jóvenes, el 26 por ciento, no sabe o no quiere decir qué partido prefiere que controle el Congreso.Iván Chávez planea participar en las elecciones de noviembre, pero aún no sabe por cuál candidato votará.Ramsay de Give para The New York TimesIvan Chavez, de 25 años y originario de Bernalillo, Nuevo México, externó que se identifica como independiente en parte porque ninguno de los partidos ha presentado argumentos convincentes para las personas de su edad. Le preocupan los asesinatos masivos, la crisis de salud mental que viven los jóvenes y el cambio climático.Le gustaría que los candidatos del tercer partido recibieran más atención. Planea votar en noviembre, pero no sabe con certeza a quién apoyará.“Creo que los demócratas tienen miedo de los republicanos en este momento, y los republicanos les tienen miedo a los demócratas”, aseveró. “No saben para dónde ir”.Los votantes republicanos jóvenes son los menos propensos a decir que quieren que Trump sea el candidato del partido en 2024, pero Kyle Holcomb, de 23 años y recién graduado de la universidad de Florida, dijo que votaría por él si fuera necesario.“Literalmente, si alguien más que no sea Biden se postulara, me sentiría más cómodo”, dijo. “Simplemente me gusta la idea de tener a alguien en el poder que pueda proyectar su visión y metas de manera efectiva”.Kyle Holcomb se ha enfadado con Donald Trump pero votará por él si se postula.Zack Wittman para The New York TimesLos jóvenes demócratas dijeron que buscaban lo mismo de sus líderes: visión, dinamismo y tal vez un poco de juventud, pero no demasiado. Varios votantes jóvenes mencionaron a la representante Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, una demócrata de Nueva York de 32 años. Chadwick elogió su juventud y disposición para hablar, a menudo en contra de sus colegas mayores en el Congreso, y resumió su atractivo en una palabra: “proximidad”.Michael C. Bender More

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      2022 Midterms Poll: Roundup of Key Insights

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      A summary of the findings includes deep dissatisfaction among voters and potential fertile ground for new candidates in 2024.Which side has the most energy heading into November? More polls will come as the midterm elections near, but for now we’ve wrapped up our first New York Times/Siena survey, and here are some notable takeaways:Voters are not happy. Just 13 percent of registered voters said America was heading in the right direction. Only 10 percent said the economy was excellent or good. And a majority of voters said the nation was too politically divided to solve its challenges. As a point of comparison, each of these figures shows a more pessimistic electorate than in October 2020, when the pandemic was still raging and Donald J. Trump was president.Joe Biden is in trouble. His approval rating in our poll was in the low 30s. That’s lower than we ever found for Mr. Trump.Democrats would rather see someone else get the party’s nomination in 2024. Mr. Biden’s age was as much of an issue among voters as his overall job performance. Of course, he probably would have trailed “someone else” ahead of the last presidential primary as well, but he still won the nomination because his opposition was weak or fractured. Still, it’s a sign that Mr. Biden is much weaker than the typical president seeking re-election. It could augur a contested primary.Democrats’ Reasons for a Different CandidateWhat’s the most important reason you would prefer someone other than Joe Biden to be the Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nominee?

      Asked of 191 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Democratic primary and who preferred a candidate other than Joe Biden in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022.By The New York TimesTrump isn’t doing great, either. Like Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump has become less popular over the last two years. The number of Republicans who hold an unfavorable view of him has doubled since our final polling in 2020. He’s now under 50 percent in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary matchup.Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is already at 25 percent in an early test of the Republican primary. Mr. Trump may still be the front-runner, but the polls increasingly look more like the early surveys from the Democratic primary in 2008 — when Hillary Clinton found herself in an extremely close race and ultimately lost to Barack Obama — than the polls ahead of the Democratic primary in 2016, when she won a protracted battle against Bernie Sanders.Many voters do not want to see a 2020 rematch. Mr. Biden still led Mr. Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, 44 percent to 41 percent. What was surprising: Ten percent of respondents volunteered that they would not vote at all or would vote for someone else if those were the two candidates, even though the interviewer didn’t offer those choices as an option.The midterm race starts out close, with voters nearly evenly divided on the generic congressional ballot (voters are asked whether they prefer Democrats or Republicans to be in control of Congress). That’s a little surprising, given expectations of a Republican landslide this year. More

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      Americans Are Hungry for Change, So Get Ready for More Turmoil

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      I’d like you to consider the possibility that the political changes that have rocked this country over the past six years will be nothing compared with the changes that will rock it over the next six. I’d like you to consider the possibility that we’re in some sort of prerevolutionary period — the kind of moment that often gives birth to something shocking and new.Look at the conditions all around us:First, Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the way things are going. Only 13 percent of voters say the country is on the right track, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll published this week.Second, Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the leaders of both parties. Joe Biden has a 33 percent job approval rating among registered voters. About half of Republican voters want to move on from Donald Trump and find a new presidential candidate for 2024.Third, inflation is soaring. Throughout history, inflationary periods have often been linked to political instability. As the economist Lionel Robbins wrote about Weimar Germany, inflation “destroyed the wealth of the more solid elements in German society; and it left behind a moral and economic disequilibrium, apt breeding ground for the disasters which have followed.”Fourth, the generational turnover is coming. The boomer gerontocracy that now dominates power is bound to retire, leaving a vacuum for something new.Fifth, Americans are detaching from the two political parties. Far more Americans consider themselves independents than consider themselves either Democrats or Republicans, and independents may be growing more distinct. And there’s some research that suggests independents are increasingly not just closeted members of the two main parties but also hold different beliefs, which put them between parties. Sixty-two percent of Americans believe a third party is needed.Sixth, disgust with the current system is high. A majority of American voters believe that our system of government does not work, and 58 percent believe that our democracy needs major reforms or a complete overhaul. Nearly half of young adult voters believe voting does not affect how the government operates.If these conditions persist, the 2024 presidential primaries could be wild. Sure, conventional candidates like the Republican Ron DeSantis or the Democrat Gavin Newsom may run for the nominations. But if the hunger for change is as strong as it is now, the climate will favor unconventional outsiders, the further outside the better. These sorts of oddball or unexpected candidates could set off a series of swings and disequilibriums that will make the existing party systems unstable.Furthermore, if ever there was a moment ripe for a Ross Perot-like third candidate in the 2024 general election, this is that moment. There are efforts underway to prepare the way for a third candidate, and in this environment an outsider, with no ties to the status quo, who runs against the establishment and on the idea that we need to fundamentally fix the system — well, that person could wind up winning the presidency.These conditions have already shaken up the stereotypes we used to use to think about politics. We used to think of the Democrats as the party of the economically disadvantaged. But college-educated metropolitan voters continue to flock to it and reshape it more and more each year. In the Times/Siena poll of registered voters, white college graduates wanted Democrats to control Congress by 57 to 36 percent. For the first time in the survey’s history, Democrats had a larger share of support among white college graduates than among nonwhite voters. These white voters are often motivated by social policy issues like abortion rights and gun regulation.The Republicans used to be the party of business, but now they are emerging as a multiracial working-class party. In the Times/Siena poll, Hispanic voters were nearly evenly split about whether they favored Republicans or Democrats in the midterms. That may be overstating how much Hispanics have shifted, but it does seem as if the Republicans are genuinely becoming a working-class white-brown coalition. These voters care about the economy, the economy and the economy.In other words, we now have an establishment progressive party and an anti-establishment conservative party. This isn’t normal.If I were a cynical political operative who wanted to construct a presidential candidate perfectly suited for this moment, I’d start by making this candidate culturally conservative. I’d want the candidate to show by dress, speech and style that he or she is not part of the coastal educated establishment. I’d want the candidate to connect with middle- and working-class voters on values and to be full-throatedly patriotic.Then I’d make the candidate economically center-left. I’d want to fuse the economic anxieties of the working-class Republicans with the economic anxieties of the Bernie Sanders young into one big riled populist package. College debt forgiveness. An aggressive home-building project to bring down prices. Whatever it took.Then I’d have that candidate deliver one nonpartisan message: Everything is broken. Then he or she would offer a slew of institutional reforms to match the comprehensive institutional reforms the Progressive movement offered more than a century ago.I guess I’m looking for a sort of modern Theodore Roosevelt. But heck, I don’t know. What’s coming down the pike is probably so unforeseeable that I don’t even have categories for it yet.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      in Elections

      Young Voters Are Fed Up With Their (Much) Older Leaders

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      Alexandra Chadwick went to the polls in 2020 with the singular goal of ousting Donald J. Trump. A 22-year-old first time voter, she saw Joseph R. Biden Jr. as more of a safeguard than an inspiring political figure, someone who could stave off threats to abortion access, gun control and climate policy.Two years later, as the Supreme Court has eroded federal protections on all three, Ms. Chadwick now sees President Biden and other Democratic leaders as lacking both the imagination and willpower to fight back. She points to a generational gap — one she once overlooked but now seems cavernous.“How are you going to accurately lead your country if your mind is still stuck 50, 60 or 70 years ago?” Ms. Chadwick, a customer service representative in Rialto, Calif., said of the many septuagenarian leaders at the helm of her party. “It’s not the same, and people aren’t the same, and your old ideas aren’t going to work as well anymore.”While voters across the spectrum express rising doubts about the country’s political leadership, few groups are as united in their discontent as the young.A survey from The New York Times and Siena College found that just 1 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds strongly approve of the way Mr. Biden is handling his job. And 94 percent of Democrats under 30 said they wanted another candidate to run two years from now. Of all age groups, young voters were most likely to say they wouldn’t vote for either Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump in a hypothetical 2024 rematch.The numbers are a clear warning for Democrats as they struggle to ward off a drubbing in the November midterm elections. Young people, long among the least reliable part of the party’s coalition, marched for gun control, rallied against Mr. Trump and helped fuel a Democratic wave in the 2018 midterm elections. They still side with Democrats on issues that are only rising in prominence.But four years on, many feel disengaged and deflated, with only 32 percent saying they are “almost certain” to vote in November, according to the poll. Nearly half said they did not think their vote made a difference.Interviews with these young voters reveal generational tensions driving their frustration. As they have come of age facing racial strife, political conflict, high inflation and a pandemic, they have looked for help from politicians who are more than three times their age.Those older leaders often talk about upholding institutions and restoring norms, while young voters say they are more interested in results. Many expressed a desire for more sweeping changes like a viable third party and a new crop of younger leaders. They’re eager for innovative action on the problems they stand to inherit, they said, rather than returning to what worked in the past.“Each member of Congress, every single one of them, has, I’m sure, lived through fairly traumatic times in their lives and also chaos in the country,” said John Della Volpe, who studies young people’s opinions as the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. “But every member of Congress has also seen America at its best. And that is when we’ve all come together. That is something that Gen Z has not had.”The Biden PresidencyWith midterm elections looming, here’s where President Biden stands.Struggling to Inspire: At a time of political tumult and economic distress, President Biden has appeared less engaged than Democrats had hoped.Low Approval Rating: For Mr. Biden, a pervasive sense of pessimism among voters has pushed his approval rating to a perilously low point.Questions About 2024: Mr. Biden has said he plans to run for a second term, but at 79, his age has become an uncomfortable issue.Rallying Allies: Faced with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Biden has set out to bolster the West and outline a more muscular NATO.Staff Changes: An increasing number of West Wing departures has added to the sense of frustration inside the Biden White House.At 79, Mr. Biden is the oldest president in U.S. history and just one of several Democratic Party leaders pushing toward or into their 80s. Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, is 82. The House majority leader, Steny Hoyer, is 83. The 71-year-old Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, is the baby of the bunch. Mr. Trump is 76.In a rematch of the 2020 election, Mr. Biden would lead 38 percent to 30 percent among young voters, but 22 percent of voters between 18 and 29 said they would not vote if those candidates were their choices, by far the largest share of any age bracket.For Ellis McCarthy, “It feels like whether it’s Biden, whether it’s Trump, no one is stepping in to be a voice for people like me, like you, whoever.”Brian Kaiser for The New York TimesThose voters include Ellis McCarthy, 24, who works a few part-time jobs around Bellevue, Ky. McCarthy says she’s yearning for a government that is “all brand-new.”Ms. McCarthy’s father, an electrician and union member who teaches at a local trade school, met Mr. Biden last summer when the president visited the training facility. The two men talked about his union and his job — two things he loved. Not long after, her father fell ill, was hospitalized and after his recovery, was left soured by the health care system and what the family saw as Mr. Biden’s failure to fix it.“It feels like whether it’s Biden, whether it’s Trump, no one is stepping in to be a voice for people like me,” she said. “Laborers are left out to dry.”Denange Sanchez, a 20-year-old student at Eastern Florida State College, from Palm Bay, Fla., sees Mr. Biden as “wishy-washy” on his promises.Ms. Sanchez’s mother owns a house-cleaning service and does most of the cleaning herself, with Denange pitching in where she can. Her whole family — including her mother, who has a heart condition and a pacemaker — has wrestled with bouts of Covid, with no insurance. Even while sick, her mother was up at all hours making home remedies, Ms. Sanchez said.“Everyone said we were going to squash this virus. Biden made all those promises. And now nobody is taking the pandemic seriously anymore, but it’s still all around us. It’s so frustrating,” she said. Ms. Sanchez, who is studying medicine, also counted college debt forgiveness on her list of Mr. Biden’s unfulfilled promises.Democratic politicians and pollsters are well aware of the problem they face with young voters, but they insist there is time to engage them on issues they prioritize. The Supreme Court’s recent decisions eliminating a constitutional right to abortion, limiting states’ abilities to control the carrying of firearms, and cutting back the federal government’s regulatory powers over climate-warming emissions are only now beginning to take root in voters’ consciousness, said Jefrey Pollock, a pollster for House Democrats.“We’re not talking about a theory anymore; we’re talking about a Supreme Court that is turning the country back by 50 years or more,” he said. “If we can’t deliver that message then shame on us.”While middle-aged voters consistently identified the economy as a top interest, it is just one of many for younger voters, roughly tied with abortion, the state of American democracy and gun policies. That presents a quandary to Democratic candidates in tough districts, many of whom say they should focus their election message almost solely on the economy — but perhaps at the expense of energizing younger voters.Tate Sutter says he is frustrated by inaction on climate change. Rozette Rago for The New York TimesTate Sutter, 21, feels that disconnect. A native of Auburn, Calif., studying at Middlebury College in Vermont, Mr. Sutter recounted watching Fourth of July fireworks and cringing as another fire season begins and aggressive federal action to combat global warming is stalled in Congress. Sure enough, he said, he could see a brush fire kicking up in the hills to the south.“Climate plays a big role for me in my politics,” he said, expressing dismay that Democrats don’t talk more about it. “It’s very frustrating.”Mr. Sutter said he understood the limits of Mr. Biden’s powers with an evenly divided Senate. But he also said he understands the power of the presidency, and did not see Mr. Biden wielding it effectively.“With age comes a lot of experience and wisdom and just know-how. But perception-wise he appears out of touch with people my generation,” he said.After years of feeling that politicians don’t talk to people like him, Juan Flores, 23, says he’s turned his attention to local ballot initiatives on issues like housing or homelessness, which he sees as more likely to have an impact on his life. Mr. Flores went to school for data analytics but drives a delivery truck for Amazon in San Jose, Calif. There, home prices average well over $1 million, making it difficult if not impossible for residents to live on a single income.“I feel like a lot of politicians, they already come from a good upbringing,” he said. “A majority of them don’t really fully understand the scope of what the majority of the American people are going through.”The Times/Siena College poll found 46 percent of young voters favored Democratic control of Congress, while 28 percent wanted Republicans to take charge. More than one in four young voters, 26 percent, don’t know or refused to say which party they want to control Congress.Ivan Chavez plans to vote in November but is unsure who he will support.Ramsay de Give for The New York TimesIvan Chavez, 25, from Bernalillo, N.M., said he identified as an independent in part because neither party had made compelling arguments to people his age. He worries about mass shootings, a mental health crisis among young people and climate change.He would like third-party candidates to get more attention. He plans to vote in November, but is unsure whom he’ll support. “I think that Democrats are afraid of the Republicans right now, Republicans are afraid of the Democrats,” he said. “They don’t know which way to go.”Young Republican voters were the least likely to say they want Mr. Trump be the party’s nominee in 2024, but Kyle Holcomb, a recent college graduate from Florida, said he would vote for him if it came to it.“Literally, if anyone else other than Biden was running I would be more comfortable,” he said. “I just like the idea of having someone in power who can project their vision and goals effectively.” Kyle Holcomb has soured on Donald Trump but will vote for him if it comes to it.Zack Wittman for The New York TimesYoung Democrats said they were looking for the same out of their leaders: vision, dynamism, and maybe a little youth, but not too much. Several young voters brought up Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 32-year-old Democrat of New York. Ms. Chadwick praised her youth and willingness to speak out — often against her older colleagues in Congress — and summed up her appeal in one word: “relatability.”Michael C. Bender More

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      Poll Shows Tight Race for Control of Congress as Class Divide Widens

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      With President Biden’s approval rating mired in the 30s and with nearly 80 percent of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction, all the ingredients seem to be in place for a Republican sweep in the November midterm elections.But Democrats and Republicans begin the campaign in a surprisingly close race for control of Congress, according to the first New York Times/Siena College survey of the cycle. More