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    Elecciones en Israel: esto necesitas saber

    Los israelíes votarán el 23 de marzo otra vez para poner fin a un impasse político que lleva dos años instalado en el país. Aquí tienes las claves de los comicios.JERUSALÉN — Los israelíes acudirán a las urnas el martes 23 de marzo por cuarta vez en dos años, con la esperanza de poner fin a un ciclo aparentemente interminable de votaciones y un estancamiento político que ha dejado al país sin presupuesto nacional durante la pandemia.El primer ministro, Benjamin Netanyahu, espera que el programa de vacunación, líder en el mundo y que ha ayudado a devolver al país recientemente a algo parecido a la normalidad, le dé a él y a sus aliados de derecha una ventaja y la mayoría estable que se le ha escapado en tres rondas anteriores de elecciones.Pero Netanyahu, primer ministro desde 2009, postula para la reelección mientras que se lleva a cabo un juicio por corrupción en su contra, una dinámica que los partidos de oposición esperan que incite a los votantes a sacarlo del poder.En realidad, sin embargo, los sondeos muestran que ninguno de los dos bloques tiene el camino despejado para ganar la mayoría, lo que hace pensar a muchos israelíes que habrá otro resultado no concluyente y, tal vez, una posible quinta elección más tarde en el año.Esto es lo que necesitas saber.¿Por qué hay tantas elecciones en Israel?La respuesta más simple es que desde 2019, ni Netanyahu ni sus opositores han logrado ganar suficientes curules en el Parlamento para formar un gobierno de colación con mayoría estable. Eso ha dejado a Netanyahu en el poder, ya como primer ministro interino o como líder de una coalición frágil con algunos de sus mayores acérrimos rivales, aunque no del todo en el poder. Y eso ha obligado al país a votar una y otra vez en un intento por superar el impasse.Detrás del drama, dicen los analistas, están las motivaciones de Netanyahu para buscar la reelección: su corazonada de que puede defenderse mejor del juicio desde la oficina de primer ministro. Dicen que está dispuesto a someter al país a una elección tras otra hasta que gane una mayoría parlamentaria más robusta que pueda concederle inmunidad.“No conozco a ningún analista serio que diga que Israel se encamina a otra ronda de elecciones por otro motivo que no sean los intereses personales de Netanyahu”, dijo Gayil Talshir, profesora de ciencia política en la Universidad Hebrea de Jerusalén.Sin embargo, los seguidores de Netanyahu rechazan la idea de que haya forzado a Israel a una elección tras otra debido a sus intereses personales. Argumentan que sus críticos simplemente están resentidos porque Netanyahu es un competidor feroz y astuto y culpan a Benny Gantz de haber logrado que la coalición resultara insostenible.Netanyahu a su salida del Parlamento de Israel en diciembreFoto de consorcio de Alex Kolomoisky¿Qué provocó esta cuarta elección?Una serie de desacuerdos entre Netanyahu y Benny Gantz, su rival y compañero de la coalición centrista, que culminaron en diciembre cuando no lograron acordar el presupuesto estatal. Eso suscitó la disolución del Parlamento, lo que ha forzado una nueva elección, aunque por ahora sigue vigente el gobierno.Los rivales habían unido fuerzas en abril pasado, luego de la tercera elección, cuando dijeron que lo hacían para asegurarse de que el país contara con un gobierno que le diera dirección a Israel durante la pandemia. Bajo este acuerdo de poder compartido, Gantz asumiría como primer ministro en noviembre de este año. Pero los socios de coalición nunca congeniaron y cada uno acusa al otro de no cooperar de buena fe.Los críticos de Netanyahu aseguran que, al disputar el presupuesto con Gantz y favorecer un plan de un año en lugar de los dos que pedía el acuerdo de la coalición, actuaba de forma interesada. La parálisis presupuestaria, al activar una nueva elección, le dio a Netanyahu otra oportunidad de formar un gobierno en lugar de quedarse en la coalición actual y cederle el poder a Gantz a finales de este año.Pero Netanyahu culpó a Gantz por el rompimiento, al decir que Gantz se había rehusado a llegar a un arreglo con Netanyahu en varios nombramientos estatales.¿Cómo se han visto afectados los israelíes por el estancamiento?La parálisis ha forzado a Israel a atravesar una de las crisis económicas y de salud más profundas de la historia sin un presupuesto público, afectando su planeación económica de largo plazo, que incluye el desarrollo de grandes proyectos de infraestructura.El estancamiento ha retrasado el nombramiento de funcionarios estatales clave, incluido el fiscal estatal y altos funcionarios de los ministerios de Justicia y Finanzas. Y los integrantes de la coalición, incluido Netanyahu, han sido acusados de politizar la toma de decisiones del gobierno incluso más de lo habitual, en busca de cualquier posible ventaja en la contienda electoral.La continua confusión, instigada por las largas dificultades legales de Netanyahu, ha moldeado la política israelí. Los votantes ahora están menos divididos por la ideología que por su rechazo o apoyo a Netanyahu.Y dado que la contienda es tan cerrada, los políticos judíos ahora están buscando cada vez más atraer a la minoría árabe de Israel para ayudar a inclinar la balanza. Los ciudadanos árabes de Israel constituyen alrededor del 20 por ciento de la población. Es un grupo que ha pasado de ser marginado a convertirse en una parte clave del electorado en esta campaña.Gideon Saar, exministro del Interior del Partido Likud de Netanyahu, es uno de sus principales competidores.Amir Cohen/Reuters¿Quiénes son los principales rivales de Netanyahu esta vez?En una demostración del modo en que el mapa político ha cambiado, dos de los principales contrincantes de Netanyahu en este ciclo electoral también son de derecha. Gideon Saar fue ministro del Interior por el partido de Netanyahu y Naftali Bennet es el exjefe de personal de Netanyahu.El tercer contendiente es Yair Lapid, un experiodista de televisión y centrista cuyo partido ha montado el desafío más fuerte contra Netanyahu.Gantz ya no es considerado como una amenaza viable al primer ministro. Las encuestas sugieren que su partido puede incluso no llegar a conseguir ningún puesto, en gran parte debido al enojo entre sus partidarios por haber formado un gobierno de unidad junto con Netanyahu, algo que había prometido no hacer.¿Cómo funcionan las elecciones en Israel?El parlamento, conocido en hebreo como la Knesset, tiene 120 curules que se reparten de manera proporcional entre los partidos que ganan más del 3,25 por ciento del voto.El sistema prácticamente garantiza que ningún partido gane una mayoría absoluta, a menudo dando a los pequeños partidos una gran influencia en las negociaciones para formar coaliciones. El sistema permite que una gran variedad de voces participe en el parlamento, pero hace que conseguir coaliciones estables sea difícil.Formar un nuevo gobierno —si se logra— puede demorar semanas o meses y en cualquier momento del proceso una mayoría de la Knesset puede votar para disolverla y forzar a una nueva elección.En los días posteriores a la elección, el presidente de Israel, Reuven Rivlin, le dará a un legislador cuatro semanas para formar la coalición. Ese mandato suele dársele al líder del partido que haya obtenido la mayor cantidad de asientos en el Parlamento, que posiblemente será Netanyahu. Pero el presidente podría dárselo a cualquier otro legislador, como Lapid, al que crea que tiene una mejor oportunidad de conseguir una coalición viable.Si los esfuerzos de dicho legislador fracasan, el presidente puede darle otras cuatro semanas a un segundo parlamentario para formar un gobierno. Si dicho proceso también naufraga, el parlamento puede nominar a un tercero para que lo intente. Si él o ella no lo logra, el Parlamento se disuelve y se celebra otra elección.Mientras tanto, Netanyahu seguirá siendo el primer ministro encargado. Si de alguna manera el impasse dura hasta noviembre, Gantz aún podría sucederlo. El acuerdo de reparto de poder al que llegaron en abril pasado quedó consagrado en la ley israelí y estipulaba que Gantz sería primer ministro en noviembre de 2021.¿Cómo ha afectado el coronavirus a la elección?En las últimas semanas, Israel ha vuelto a enviar a los niños a la escuela, reabierto los restaurantes para servicio presencial y permitido que las personas vacunadas acudan a conciertos y espectáculos teatrales.Netanyahu espera que el éxito del despliegue de vacunación en el país, que ha logrado darle a la mayoría de israelíes al menos una dosis, le dé un impulso para lograr la victoria.Pero su récord pandémico también podría costarle caro. Algunos votantes creen que ha politizado varias decisiones clave, por ejemplo al limitar algunas multas por incumplir las regulaciones para contener el virus a niveles mucho más bajos que los recomendados por los expertos en salud pública.Los críticos han percibido que esto es una forma de beneficiar a los israelíes ultraortodoxos, algunos de los cuales han incumplido las restricciones a las reuniones masivas. Netanyahu necesitará del apoyo de los israelíes ultraortodoxos para permanecer en el poder tras la elección.No se puede votar por correo en Israel. Para prevenir la propagación del virus, se han previsto lugares de votación para las personas que están en cuarentena y los pacientes con COVID-19.¿Podría haber una quinta elección este año?Nadie lo descarta. Se anticipa que el partido de Netanyahu, Likud, surja como el partido más numeroso, con alrededor de 30 curules. Pero puede que sus aliados no alcancen suficientes para darle la mayoría de 61 que necesita.Y aunque las encuestas actuales sugieren que los partidos de oposición ganarán colectivamente más de 61 curules, no está claro si sus profundas diferencias ideológicas les permitirán unirse.Podría resultar que la clave sea Bennet. Aunque desea reemplazar a Netanyahu, tampoco ha descartado unirse a su gobierno.Patrick Kingsley e Isabel Kershner colaboraron con la reportería. More

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    Will Cuomo’s Scandals Pave the Way for New York’s First Female Mayor?

    The women running for mayor have sharply criticized Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo as sexual harassment allegations pile up against him, and they say they offer a different style of leadership.In the race to become mayor of New York, there is a glass ceiling, unbroken but not unmentioned by the several women running for the position this year: The city has had 109 mayors, not one of them a woman.So at gatherings like a recent fund-raiser for Kathryn Garcia, a Democratic hopeful, that barrier has been top of mind.The online fund-raiser, which was attended by dozens of women, many of them veterans of city government, was held last week on International Women’s Day. But Ms. Garcia’s mission was particularly relevant for another reason, too: Earlier that day, two high-powered lawyers were named to lead an independent investigation of sexual harassment accusations made against Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo.It was a moment that Ms. Garcia, the city’s former sanitation commissioner, leaned into.“New York’s governor is reminding us it is time to see more women in positions of power,” Ms. Garcia told the group. “In 2021, there is no right man for the job of mayor.”The women running for mayor have all touched upon the historic nature of their political campaigns, highlighting it in fund-raising pitches and on social media.And more recently, they have underscored the need to end the male-dominated political culture that gave rise to the sexual harassment scandal surrounding Mr. Cuomo.Many of the governor’s strongest critics have been women. Two Democrats, Ms. Garcia and Maya Wiley, were among the first mayoral hopefuls to urge Mr. Cuomo to resign. A third, Dianne Morales, has called for his impeachment.With only three months left until the June 22 Democratic primary for mayor, the political world is abuzz over Mr. Cuomo’s scandals. Two of the race’s more prominent male candidates, Andrew Yang and Eric Adams, have taken a more cautious approach to addressing Mr. Cuomo’s political straits, only recently saying that he should step aside until the investigations are complete.The governor’s problems have given the female candidates more ammunition to make their case that it is time for a woman to lead New York City.They have rebuked Mr. Cuomo and shared their stories of sexual harassment and sexism in politics. And they have argued that they would offer a more inclusive style of leadership than Mr. Cuomo, one that empowers staffers and does not rely on bullying.Ms. Wiley, a former counsel to Mayor Bill de Blasio and the former head of the Civilian Complaint Review Board, who is the strongest female candidate in the polls and fund-raising, has called on the men in the race to join her in urging Mr. Cuomo to resign.“It is clear that this is a man who behaves this way,” Ms. Wiley said. “This isn’t a single mistake. This isn’t a misinterpretation. This is a set of behaviors, and this is who he is.”Maya Wiley, center, a former counsel to Mayor Bill de Blasio, has also called on Mr. Cuomo to step down. Mary Altaffer/Associated PressPolitical experts have many theories about why New York is such a difficult environment for women running for office, from overt sexism to machine politics and the challenges of raising large amounts of money.Ruth W. Messinger, a former Manhattan borough president, said she experienced all three hurdles in 1997, when she ran as the Democratic nominee against the Republican incumbent, Rudolph W. Giuliani.Voters said she was unattractive, unions were “bastions of male domination,” and men were reluctant to donate to her, she said in an interview. During a focus group, Ms. Messinger recalled, a man commented, “I would never date her.”She would meet with major donors and thought it went well, and then husbands told their wives to write a check.“The women wrote smaller checks,” Ms. Messinger said.In the 2013 mayoral race, Christine Quinn, the former New York City Council speaker, had been a front-runner, but she lost to Mr. de Blasio in the Democratic primary after some voters said they found her unlikable — a word deeply influenced by gender bias and often a sexist trope, researchers on women and politics say. Ms. Quinn was also closely linked to the incumbent, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, whose popularity had fallen after three terms.Ms. Quinn said she wished she had been more authentic and embraced her brusque reputation.“That’s probably exactly what you want in the mayor of New York — a bitch with a big heart, and I’m both,” she said.Major cities like Chicago and Houston saw voters elect their first female mayors in the 1970s and ’80s. Women now run 27 of the nation’s 100 largest cities, including Lori Lightfoot in Chicago and Keisha Lance Bottoms in Atlanta.New York also has never had a female governor, with the state decades behind more conservative states like Texas and Alabama in electing a woman. But if Mr. Cuomo were to resign or be removed from office, a woman — Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul — would succeed him.“The larger point here is that Cuomo’s behavior unfortunately isn’t isolated — it’s a symptom of a culture that can be toxic for women, not just in Albany but at City Hall,” said Marti Speranza Wong, executive director of Amplify Her, a group that works to elect women. “We can’t really expect an environment that is supportive of women if we don’t have women in positions of power.”Female candidates in New York and beyond have been encouraged by the success of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose upset primary victory in 2018 over the Democratic incumbent, Joseph Crowley, demonstrated how women can go around party officials to reach voters directly.“Machine politics is a machine that was built by and for men,” Ms. Morales said. “In New York City, I’m not sure we’re as progressive as we like to think we are.”Of the leading female candidates this year, two are women of color: Ms. Wiley, who is Black, and Ms. Morales, a former nonprofit executive, who is Afro-Latina.The women in the Democratic primary are focusing on different issues: Ms. Morales is running to the left of the field and wants to cut $3 billion from the police budget; Ms. Wiley has emphasized her civil rights background and a plan to create 100,000 jobs; Ms. Garcia has highlighted her experience in government and wants to improve basic services and quality of life in the city. (Another female candidate, Loree Sutton, a retired Army brigadier general, dropped out of the Democratic race last week.)As the candidates continue to make appearances in an endless series of online forums, the women seem to be forming a bond. At one forum where candidates were asked to pick a second choice for mayor, Ms. Wiley and Ms. Morales named each other.Ms. Morales said she felt strongly that it was time for a woman of color to be elected.“There’s a level of solidarity that we all feel toward each other, and a recognition of the barriers and obstacles that we’re overcoming on a daily basis just to be in this space,” she said.Dianne Morales, a former nonprofit executive, said she felt strongly that it was time for a woman of color to be elected.Laylah Amatullah Barrayn for The New York TimesThe women’s response to the allegations against the governor illustrate that common ground.Ms. Wiley, a former MSNBC analyst with a loyal following on social media, took to Instagram last month and called Mr. Cuomo’s behavior disgusting. She shared in a video that a boss had once asked her if she believed in monogamy.In an interview, Ms. Wiley provided further details: She was a young lawyer alone in his office where he told her that he was open to multiple partners.“I looked this man dead in the eye and said, ‘Yeah, I believe in monogamy,’” she said. “I said it with a particular attitude — let me say that — and my attitude was, ‘Really, dude? Did you just ask me that question?’”“This is why when you hear Charlotte Bennett’s story, you know exactly what they’re asking you,” she said in reference to a female staffer who accused Mr. Cuomo of trying to groom her for a sexual relationship. “You’re being asked if you’re willing.”Many of the comments on Ms. Wiley’s Instagram video were supportive. Others said she was jumping the gun and told her to “be quiet” and “shut up.”Ms. Morales said that news reports about Mr. Cuomo’s treatment of women reminded her of a job she had while she was in her 20s.“I’ve experienced a male boss closing the door in a small office and backing me into a corner and screaming at me at the top of his lungs and then storming out, and people surrounding me to see if I was OK,” she said.Sara Tirschwell, a former Wall Street executive who is running in the Republican mayoral primary, once filed a sexual harassment complaint against her boss, and has also called on Mr. Cuomo to resign. She quotes Maya Angelou on her campaign website: “Each time a woman stands up for herself, without knowing it, possibly, without claiming it, she stands up for all women.”While women have made strides in state legislatures and Congress, some voters still cannot picture a woman as president, governor or mayor, said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.“When you’re the place where the buck stops, there needs to be a sense of strength and authority,” Ms. Walsh said. “That has been one of the challenges that women have faced — the stereotype that women aren’t strong or tough enough.”That stereotype particularly rankles Ms. Garcia, who served as Mr. de Blasio’s go-to crisis manager, taking on the top job at the New York City Housing Authority and running the city’s pandemic meal program.She said that people constantly underestimate her as she runs for mayor, and some have suggested she would make a great deputy mayor.“It’s frustrating that you’re considered the most qualified for the job and are pigeonholed that you should be a less-qualified guy’s No. 2,” she said. 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    Many Iowans Are Uncomfortable With a New Voting Restriction, Poll Finds

    A new survey by one of the country’s top pollsters hinted at discomfort among voters in the state about new balloting restrictions.Republican state lawmakers across the country have responded to President Biden’s victory in November by proposing a raft of new restrictions on voting, aiming to tamp down early voting and absentee balloting in moves that would make it harder to participate on Election Day.But in Iowa — a state that’s been trending red for years, and where Donald Trump won by over eight percentage points in November — a new survey by one of the country’s top pollsters suggests that voters are irked by the latest push to curtail voting access.Last week, the state’s Republican governor, Kim Reynolds, signed a bill passed by the G.O.P.-led state legislature that includes a number of restrictions on voting, including shortening the early-voting period by nine days and closing the polls an hour earlier on Election Day.The new poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. for The Des Moines Register and released today, found that 52 percent of Iowans were opposed to condensing the early-voting period, and 42 percent were in favor.There was a deep partisan divide, with 71 percent of Republicans favoring the move and 81 percent of Democrats opposed. Among independents, 51 percent were against the change, while 43 percent were in favor.The poll found that Iowans were evenly split on Reynolds’s job performance, with 46 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving. But 52 percent said they hoped she wouldn’t run for re-election next year, and just 41 percent said they wanted her to.Asked about Biden’s work so far as president, 47 percent gave him positive marks and 44 percent gave him a thumbs-down.The voting bill Reynolds just signed is one of hundreds that have been making their way through Republican-led state legislatures across the country. Proponents of these bills often cite the risk of voter fraud as a motivating factor, even though in reality fraud is vanishingly rare — and restrictions on access to the ballot tend to do more to disenfranchise legitimate voters than to cut down on illegitimate voting.The rash of state-level restrictions has drawn fire from advocates of voting rights, and Democratic lawmakers in Washington have recommitted themselves to passing two major voting-rights bills that would invalidate many of the state laws.But on a national level, it’s not yet clear that Democrats have won the battle over messaging. A poll published this month by CNN found that 53 percent of Americans said they were more worried that voting rules might not be “strict enough to prevent illegal votes from being cast,” while just 39 percent were more concerned that voting laws might “make it too difficult for eligible citizens” to cast a ballot.Fears of anti-Asian violence rise after a deadly rampage in Georgia.The killings of eight people, including six women of Asian descent, during a shooting spree in the Atlanta area yesterday have prompted a national outcry, and at a news conference today Biden noted a “very, very troubling” pattern of violence against Asian-Americans in recent months.“Whatever the motivation here,” Biden said, “I know Asian-Americans are very concerned.” But the president stopped short of saying that the killings had been racially motivated, citing an ongoing investigation.Investigators said they had not ruled out bias as a motivating factor in the shootings, which were carried out at three massage parlors, although the suspect denied racial animus once in custody.The suspect in the killings was charged today with murder. He told the police that he had a “sexual addiction” and had carried out the shootings to eliminate his “temptation,” the authorities said on Wednesday.Vice President Kamala Harris, the first woman and the first Asian-American person to hold the office, expressed condolences for the families of the victims today.“I do want to say to our Asian-American community that we stand with you and understand how this has frightened and shocked and outraged all people,” she said.Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders were targeted in nearly 3,800 hate incidents reported over the past year, according to Stop AAPI Hate. The incidents compiled by the group included mostly verbal harassment and name-calling, which accounted for about 68 percent of those reported. Shunning, or the deliberate avoidance of Asian-Americans, composed about 20 percent. About 11 percent of the reports involved physical assault, the report said.Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms of Atlanta said of the shootings, “Whatever the motivation was for this guy, we know that the majority of the victims were Asian.”She added: “We also know that this is an issue that is happening across the country. It is unacceptable, it is hateful and it has to stop.”— More

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    Israel Has Its 4th National Election in 2 Years. Here’s Why.

    Israelis will vote again on Tuesday, seeking to end a political deadlock that has gripped the country for two years. This is what you need to know.JERUSALEM — Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday for the fourth time in two years, hoping to break a seemingly endless cycle of elections and a political deadlock that has left the country without a national budget during a pandemic.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes Israel’s world-leading vaccination program, which has helped the country emerge in recent days into something approaching normality, will give him and his right-wing allies an edge and the stable majority that proved elusive in three earlier rounds of elections.But Mr. Netanyahu, prime minister since 2009, is running for re-election while standing trial on corruption charges — a dynamic that opposition parties hope will prompt voters to finally push him out of office.In reality, though, polls show that neither bloc has a clear route to a majority, leaving many Israelis bracing for another inconclusive result, and a possible fifth election later in the year.Here’s what else you need to know.Why is Israel holding so many elections?The simplest explanation is that since 2019, neither Mr. Netanyahu nor his opponents have been able to win enough seats in Parliament to form a coalition government with a stable majority. That has left Mr. Netanyahu in office, either as a caretaker prime minister or at the helm of a fragile coalition with some of his fiercest rivals, though not wholly in power. And that has forced the country to vote again and again in an attempt to break the deadlock.Underlying this drama, analysts say, is one of Mr. Netanyahu’s motivations for seeking re-election — his hunch that he can best fight his prosecution from the prime minister’s office. They say he is ready to take the country to election after election — until he wins a stronger parliamentary majority that could grant him immunity from prosecution.“I don’t know any serious thinker who says Israel is going to another round of elections for reasons other than Netanyahu’s personal interests,” said Gayil Talshir, a professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.Supporters of Mr. Netanyahu, however, reject the notion that his personal interests have pushed Israel from election to election. They contend that his critics simply resent that Mr. Netanyahu is a fierce and savvy competitor, and they blame Mr. Gantz for making the coalition untenable..Mr. Netanyahu leaving the Israeli Parliament in December.Pool photo by Alex KolomoiskyWhat prompted this fourth election?A series of disagreements between Mr. Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, his rival and centrist coalition partner, culminated in December in their failure to agree on a state budget. That led the Parliament to dissolve, forcing a new election, though for now the government remains in place.The rivals joined forces last April, after the third election, saying that it was to ensure Israel had a government to lead the country through the pandemic. Under their power-sharing agreement, Mr. Gantz would take over as prime minister in November of this year. But the coalition partners never got along, and each side accuses the other of failing to cooperate in good faith.Mr. Netanyahu’s critics contend that he acted out of personal interest when he fought Mr. Gantz over the budget, favoring a one-year plan, rather than the two years called for by the coalition agreement. The budget deadlock, by forcing a new election, gave Mr. Netanyahu another shot at forming a government, rather than staying in the current coalition and ceding power to Mr. Gantz later this year.But Mr. Netanyahu blamed Mr. Gantz for the break, saying that Mr. Gantz had refused to compromise with Mr. Netanyahu on several state appointments.How has the political gridlock affected Israelis?The gridlock has forced Israel to go without a state budget during one of the most profound health and economic crises in its history, undermining long-term economic planning, including the development of major infrastructure projects.The stasis has delayed the appointment of key state officials, including the state attorney and senior executive officers at the Justice and Finance ministries. And members of the coalition, including Mr. Netanyahu, have been accused of politicizing government decision-making even more than usual, seeking any possible edge in the electoral advantage.The continual turmoil, abetted by Mr. Netanyahu’s long-running legal troubles, has reshaped Israeli politics. Voters are now divided less by ideology than by whether they are for or against Mr. Netanyahu.And with the race so tight, Jewish politicians are now increasingly looking to members of Israel’s Arab minority to help break the deadlock. Arab citizens of Israel form about 20 percent of the population. Once marginalized, they have become a key constituency in this election campaign.Gideon Saar, a former interior minister for Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party, is one of his primary challengers.Amir Cohen/ReutersWho are Mr. Netanyahu’s main rivals this time?In a sign of how the political map has changed, two of Mr. Netanyahu’s principal challengers in this election cycle are also right-wingers. Gideon Saar is a former interior minister for Mr. Netanyahu’s party and Naftali Bennett is Mr. Netanyahu’s former chief of staff. The third leading challenger is Yair Lapid, a centrist former broadcast journalist whose party is mounting the strongest challenge to Mr. Netanyahu.Mr. Gantz is no longer considered a viable threat to the prime minister. Polls suggest his party may even fail to win a seat, largely because of anger among his former supporters over his decision to form a unity government with Mr. Netanyahu in the first place, an arrangement he had promised not to join.How do Israeli elections work?The Parliament, known in Hebrew as the Knesset, has 120 seats that are allocated on a proportional basis to parties that win more than 3.25 percent of the vote.The system almost guarantees that no single party will win an outright majority, often giving tiny parties big influence in the deal-making that forms coalitions. The system allows for a broad range of voices in Parliament but forming stable coalitions under it is difficult.It could take weeks or possibly months for a new government to be formed — if one can be formed — and at any point in the process, a majority of the Knesset could vote to dissolve again, forcing yet another election.In the days after the election, Reuven Rivlin, Israel’s president, will give one lawmaker four weeks to try to form a coalition. He usually gives that mandate to the leader of the party that won the highest number of seats, which is likely to be Mr. Netanyahu. But he could grant it to another lawmaker, like Mr. Lapid, who he believes has a better chance at pulling together a viable coalition.If that lawmaker’s efforts break down, the president can give a second candidate another four weeks to form a government. If that process also stutters, Parliament itself can nominate a third candidate to give it a go. And if he or she fails, Parliament dissolves and another election is called.In the meantime, Mr. Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister. If somehow the deadlock continues until November, Mr. Gantz might still succeed him. The power-sharing deal the pair agreed to last April was enshrined into Israeli law, and stipulated that Mr. Gantz would become prime minister in November 2021.How has the coronavirus affected the election?In recent weeks, Israel has sent children back to school, reopened restaurants for in-house dining and allowed vaccinated people to attend concerts and theater performances.Mr. Netanyahu hopes the success of Israel’s vaccine rollout, which has given a majority of Israelis at least one dose, will help propel him to victory.But his pandemic record may also cost him. Some voters believe he politicized certain key decisions — for instance, capping some fines for flouting antivirus regulations at levels much lower than public health experts recommended.Critics perceived this as a sop to ultra-Orthodox Israelis, some of whom flouted coronavirus restrictions on mass gatherings. Mr. Netanyahu will need the support of two ultra-Orthodox parties to remain in office after the election.Voting by mail is not available in Israel. To prevent the spread of the virus, special polling stations are being set up for quarantined people and for Covid-19 patients.Could there be a fifth election later in the year?No one is ruling it out. Mr. Netanyahu’s party, Likud, is predicted to emerge as the largest party, with around 30 seats. But his allies may not win enough seats to give him a majority of 61.And though current polling suggests the opposition parties will collectively win more than 61 seats, it’s unclear whether their profound ideological differences will allow them to come together.The key player could be Mr. Bennett. Though he wants to replace Mr. Netanyahu, he has also not ruled out joining his government.Patrick Kingsley and Isabel Kershner contributed reporting. More

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    Can Anything End the Voting Wars?

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storyOpinionSupported byContinue reading the main storyCan Anything End the Voting Wars?As battles over voting rules burn hotter, the stakes are still lower than both sides seem to think.Opinion ColumnistMarch 16, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ETCredit…Illustration by Arsh Raziuddin, Photos, via Getty More

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    Election Year in Germany Kicks Off With Voting in Two States

    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesRisk Near YouVaccine RolloutGuidelines After VaccinationAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyElection Year in Germany Kicks Off With Voting in Two StatesRegional governments will be chosen in two southwestern states months before a national vote that is considered wide open after 16 years under Chancellor Angela MerkelPosters for the Rhineland-Palatinate state election, including the incumbent governor, Malu Dreyer of the Social Democrats, right, and Christian Baldauf of the Christian Democratic Union, top left, in Frankenthal, Germany, on Wednesday.Credit…Michael Probst/Associated PressMarch 14, 2021, 5:33 a.m. ETBERLIN — Voters in two southwestern German states are kicking off an election year on Sunday that could change the course of Europe’s largest economy after 16 years under the leadership of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who will be stepping down after a new government is sworn in.The elections in the states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate are the first in a year that will see voting for new legislators in four more states, and for the country’s Parliament, which will be elected in September.Sunday’s voting is taking place after largely muted election campaigns that were overshadowed by the threat of the coronavirus and by lockdowns. While neither race will serve as a clear bellwether for the fall election, the outcomes could indicate how voters are feeling about the two leading parties, the conservatives and the Greens, and help focus the contest for Ms. Merkel’s replacement.“It is an unbelievably exciting election year,” said Thorsten Faas, a professor of political science at Berlin’s Free University. “A lot is still open, creating the possibility for movement in various directions.”A vaccine rollout stymied by shortages of doses and hampered by bureaucracy is leading many to question the competence of the chancellor’s conservative bloc. Over the past week, revelations have emerged that several conservative lawmakers earned tens of thousands of euros in exchange for arranging the sale of medical-grade masks to municipalities early in the pandemic, when supplies were very tight.Three lawmakers have resigned over the scandal, including a member of the Christian Democratic Union representing a district in Baden-Württemberg. Another lawmaker from the state of Thuringia, as well as a member of the Christian Social Union, the conservative party in the state of Bavaria, also resigned. After the payouts came to light, party leaders required all 240 conservative lawmakers to sign a declaration pledging they hadn’t used their position for financial gain in connection with fighting the pandemic.Even before the scandal broke, the conservatives were struggling in the race in Baden-Württemberg, where a popular incumbent governor for the Greens is seeking a third term in office.For the past five years, Winfried Kretschmann, 72, has led the state through a coalition of his environmental party with the conservative Christian Democrats, and voters are expected to return him to office. Polls in the weeks running up to the vote showed the Greens with the strongest support, between 33 to 35 percent. Mr. Kretschmann campaigned on his personality, under the slogan “You know me,” and promised a continuation of his party’s consensus-seeking policies of the past five years.Winfried Kretschmann, the incumbent governor of Baden-Württemberg state, left, with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany in Heidelberg in 2019.Credit…Daniel Roland/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesPolls suggest the Christian Democrats in Baden-Württemberg appear poised to take second place, setting the stage for a possible continuation of the current coalition, a combination that many observers consider a possibility for the makeup of the national Parliament.The Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is expected to hold onto the roughly 15 percent support that it won in Baden-Württemberg in 2016. Although the regional party has been plagued by internal divisions and strife among its members, it is expected to retain voters who are attracted to its nationalistic, anti-establishment stance.The Coronavirus Outbreak More

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    Can France’s Far Right Win Over the ‘Beavers’? One Mayor Shows How

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyCan France’s Far Right Win Over the ‘Beavers’? One Mayor Shows HowIn the southern city of Perpignan, voters who had long built a dam against the far right turned in the last election. Some wonder whether it’s a harbinger of things to come.Last year Perpignan became the largest city to come under the control of the National Rally, the far-right party led by Marine Le Pen.Credit…Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York TimesNorimitsu Onishi and March 13, 2021, 5:28 a.m. ETLire en françaisPERPIGNAN, France — Riding high in the polls ahead of the next presidential election, feeling they’ve won the battle over ideas, smelling blood in the Élysée Palace, leaders of France’s far right cocked their eyes across the land at perhaps the one thing standing between them and power: beavers.That is what some French call the voters who, time and again, have cast political differences aside and put in power anyone but far-right candidates — raising a dam against them as real beavers do against predators. Voters did precisely that in 2014 in Perpignan, a medieval city of pastel-color buildings on the Mediterranean near the border with Spain.But last year, the dam broke and Perpignan became the largest city under the control of the National Rally, the far-right party led by Marine Le Pen. Today the city of more than 120,000 is being closely watched as an incubator of far-right strategy and as a potential harbinger of what a presidential election rematch pitting Ms. Le Pen against President Emmanuel Macron could look like.A victory for Ms. Le Pen would be earth-shattering for France, and all of Europe. It has been an article of faith in France that a party whose leadership has long shown flashes of anti-Semitism, Nazi nostalgia and anti-immigrant bigotry would never make it through the country’s two-stage presidential electoral juggernaut.But steadily her party has advanced farther than many French have been prepared to countenance, and Ms. Le Pen’s debut in the final round of France’s last presidential election in 2017 came as a shock to the system.She may still be a relative long shot, given the party’s history in France, but for now perhaps not as long as she once was. Recent polls show her matching Mr. Macron in the first round of next year’s presidential contest and trailing by a few points in a second-round runoff. In a poll released Thursday, 48 percent of respondents said Ms. Le Pen would probably be France’s next president, up 7 percent compared with half a year ago.“They’ve been forming dams since 2002 now,” said Louis Aliot, the mayor of Perpignan and a longtime National Rally leader. “So to ask them again to form a dam with Macron — but what’s changed? Nothing at all.” Voter-built dams were no longer effective, unlike those made by the animal, he said, adding, “When beavers build dams, it works.”The mayor of Perpignan, Louis Aliot, succeeded in softening the party’s image in Perpignan.Credit…Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York TimesIn 2014, many voters on the left and right had successfully united in a “Republican front” against Mr. Aliot — the same way they raised a dam against Ms. Le Pen in the 2017 presidential election won by Mr. Macron.But in the intervening years, Mr. Aliot succeeded in softening the party’s image in Perpignan and won new converts, even as disillusioned beavers stayed home or left blank ballots on voting day in 2020. Mr. Aliot won handily — in a rematch against his opponent of 2014 who, like Mr. Macron, had tilted rightward and marketed himself as the best check against the far right.Nationally, Ms. Le Pen, who was Mr. Aliot’s common-law partner for a decade until 2019, has hewed to the same playbook in sanitizing her party’s image, even amid questions about the depth and sincerity of those efforts.She has softened the party’s longtime populist economic agenda — for instance, by dropping a proposal to exit the euro and by promoting green reindustrialization — while holding onto or even toughening the party’s core, hard-line positions on immigration, Islam and security.The effort by the party to wade into the mainstream has presented a special quandary for Mr. Macron. Sensing the political threat, and lacking a real challenge on his left, he has tried to fight the National Rally on its own turf — moving to the right to vie for voters who might be tempted to defect to it. Doing so, Mr. Macron hopes to keep the far right at bay.But the shift also helps destigmatize the far right, or at least many of its messages, argue National Rally leaders, some members of Mr. Macron’s own party and political analysts. Mr. Macron’s strategy may have the unintended consequence of helping the National Rally in its decades-long struggle to become a normal party, they say. “It legitimizes what we’ve been saying,” Mr. Aliot said. “These are the people who’ve been saying for 30 years: Be careful, they’re nasty, they’re fascists, because they target Muslims. All of a sudden, they’re talking like us.”Mr. Macron and his ministers, in recent months, have tried to appropriate the extreme right’s issues with new policies and dog whistles, talking tough on crime and pushing through security bills to try to limit filming of the police, which was dropped after protests, and crack down on what they call Islamist separatism. In a recent televised debate, the interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, even accused Ms. Le Pen of being “shaky” and “softer than we are” on Islamism.President Emmanuel Macron has tried to fight the National Rally on its own turf — moving to the right to vie for voters who might be tempted to defect to it.Credit…Pool photo by Thomas CoexMarine Le Pen has been sanitizing her party’s image, even amid questions about the depth and sincerity of those efforts.Credit…Alain Jocard/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThey have turned to identity politics, ordering an investigation into “Islamo-leftism” at French universities and other so-called American-inspired ideas that they say threaten to undermine French values.“The more we go on their ground, the stronger we make them,” Jean-Michel Mis, a national lawmaker from Mr. Macron’s party, said of the National Rally. “So their leaders are very pleased because, in the end, we’re legitimizing their campaign themes.”Nicolas Lebourg, a political scientist specializing on the National Rally, said that adopting the far right’s themes has often backfired. “What they’re currently doing is campaigning for Marine Le Pen,” he said.Even as Mr. Macron has portrayed himself as the best candidate to protect France from the far right, polls show voters may be growing weary of being asked to vote against a candidate, rather than for one.Among the former beavers of Perpignan were Jacques and Régine Talau, a retired couple who had always voted for the mainstream right, helping build the dam against the far right in Perpignan in 2014 and in the presidential election of 2017.Historically conservative and economically depressed, Perpignan was perhaps naturally receptive to Ms. Le Pen’s party, which had won smaller, struggling cities in the south and north in recent years. But winning over the Talaus of Perpignan was a tipping point.Their neighborhood, Mas Llaro, an area of stately homes on large plots amid vineyards on the city’s eastern fringe, is Perpignan’s wealthiest. In 2020, more than 60 percent of its residents voted for Mr. Aliot — 7 percentage points higher than his overall tally and 10 percentage points more than in 2014.Among the former “beavers” of Perpignan were Jacques Talau, left, and his wife, Régine, center, a retired couple who had always voted for the mainstream right.Credit…Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York TimesMas Llaro had always voted for the mainstream right.But disillusioned and weary of the status quo, the Talaus, like many others, voted for the first time for the far right last year, drawn by Mr. Aliot’s emphasis on cleanliness and crime, saying their home had been broken into twice.Though satisfied with the mayor’s performance, Mr. Talau said he would still join the dam against the far right in next year’s presidential contest and hold his nose to vote for Mr. Macron. But Ms. Talau was now considering casting a ballot for Ms. Le Pen.“She’s put water in her wine,” Ms. Talau said, adding that Mr. Macron was not “tough enough.”Mr. Aliot’s opponent in 2014 and 2020, a center-right politician named Jean-Marc Pujol, had pressed further to the right in an unsuccessful move to fend off the far right. He increased the number of police officers, giving Perpignan the highest number per capita of any large city in France, according to government data.Even so, many of his core supporters appeared to trust the far right more on crime and still defected, while many left-leaning beavers complained that they had been ignored and refused to take part in dam-building again, said Agnès Langevine, who represented the Greens and the Socialists in the 2020 mayoral election.“And they told us, ‘In 2022, if it’s between Macron and Le Pen, I won’t do it again,’ ” she added.Mr. Lebourg, the political scientist, said that Mr. Aliot had also won over conservative, upper-income voters by adopting a mainstream economic message — the same strategy adopted by Ms. Le Pen.Since taking over the party a decade ago, she has worked hard at “dédiabolisation” — or “de-demonizing” — the party.A war memorial in Perpignan, a conservative and economically depressed city that has been receptive to the National Rally party’s message.Credit…Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York TimesIn 2015, Ms. Le Pen expelled her own father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who founded the party and had a long history of playing down the Holocaust.While she popularized dog whistles like “turning savage,” she consciously stayed clear of explosive language conjuring up a supposed “great replacement” of France’s white population by African and Muslim immigrants. In 2018, she rebranded the National Front as the more inclusive “Rally.”Still, the party wants to toughen migration policies for foreign students and reduce net immigration by twentyfold.It also wants to ban the public wearing of the Muslim veil and limit the “presence of ostentatious elements” outside religious buildings if they clash with the environment, in an apparent reference to minarets.In Perpignan, Mr. Aliot has focused on crime, spending $9.5 million to hire 30 new police officers, open new stations, and set up bicycle and nighttime patrols, responding to an increase in drug trafficking.Jeanne Mercier, 24, a left-leaning voter, said many around her had been “seduced” by the far-right mayor.Camille Rosa, left, a left-leaning voter, said she doesn’t know whether she would join again in building a dam against Ms. Le Pen in presidential elections next year.Credit…Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times“We’re the test to show France that the National Front is making things work and that people are rallying and are happy,” she said, referring to the party by its old name. “In the end, it’s not the devil that we imagined.”Camille Rosa, 35, said she doesn’t know whether she would join again in building a dam against Ms. Le Pen next year. The attacks by the president’s ministers against “Islamo-leftism” and scholars on feminism, gender and race had fundamentally changed her view of the government of Mr. Macron.“I have the impression that their enemies are no longer the extreme right at all,” she said, “but it’s us, people on the left.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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    À Perpignan, l’extrême-droite rallie ‘les castors’

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyÀ Perpignan, l’extrême-droite rallie ‘les castors’Dans cette ville méridionale, des électeurs qui avaient longtemps fait barrage à l’extrême-droite ont basculé aux dernières municipales. Un signe avant-coureur pour la prochaine présidentielle?Perpignan est devenue l’an dernier la plus grande ville de France à passer sous contrôle  du Rassemblement National, le parti d’extrême-droite dirigé par Marine Le Pen.Credit…Dmitry Kostyukov pour The New York TimesNorimitsu Onishi and March 13, 2021, 5:28 a.m. ETRead in EnglishPERPIGNAN, France — Forts de bons sondages en amont de la prochaine élection présidentielle, estimant avoir gagné la bataille des idées et sentant le vent tourner à l’Élysée, les leaders de l’extrême-droite française n’ont peut-être plus qu’un obstacle entre eux et le pouvoir: les castors.C’est ainsi que certains en France surnomment ceux qui, d’un scrutin à l’autre, laissant de côté leurs différences politiques, choisissent d’élire n’importe qui plutôt que les candidats d’extrême-droite — érigeant un barrage contre ces derniers comme le font les vrais castors pour se protéger des prédateurs. C’est précisément ce qu’ont fait, aux municipales de 2014, les électeurs de Perpignan, cette ville médiévale méditerranéenne aux bâtisses couleur pastel située non loin de la frontière espagnole.Mais l’année dernière le barrage a cédé, et Perpignan est devenue la plus grande ville à passer sous contrôle du Rassemblement National d’extrême-droite que dirige Marine Le Pen. Aujourd’hui, cette ville de plus de 120 000 habitants est scrutée avec attention : elle est un incubateur de la stratégie de l’extrême-droite et un potentiel signe avant-coureur de ce à quoi pourrait ressembler le deuxième match présidentiel opposant Marine Le Pen à Emmanuel Macron.Une victoire de Mme Le Pen bouleverserait la France et l’Europe entière. Il a longtemps été considéré comme un principe acquis qu’un parti dont la direction a montré des signes d’antisémitisme, de nostalgie du nazisme et d’intolérance anti-immigrés n’arriverait jamais à remporter l’élection présidentielle.Mais petit à petit, son parti a progressé bien plus que beaucoup de Français n’étaient prêts à l’admettre. L’arrivée de Mme Le Pen au second tour de la dernière présidentielle française, en 2017, a été un électrochoc pour le système.Son combat est loin d’être gagné, vu l’historique de son parti en France, mais peut–être s’est-elle rapprochée de la ligne d’arrivée. Un sondage récent lui attribue un score égal à celui de M. Macron au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle de l’année prochaine, et une défaite par quelques points seulement au second. D’après un sondage publié jeudi dernier, 48% des Français estiment probable la victoire de Marine Le Pen à la présidentielle, soit 7% de plus qu’il y a six mois.“Ils ont fait barrage depuis 2002 maintenant”, dit Louis Aliot, maire de Perpignan et cacique de longue date du Rassemblement National. “Alors leur redemander de faire barrage avec Macron, mais qu’est-ce qui a changé? Rien du tout.” Les barrages des électeurs ne sont plus efficaces, contrairement à ceux de l’animal, estime-t-il. “Les castors, quand ils construisent des barrages, ça marche.”Le maire de Perpignan, Louis Aliot, a réussi à modérer l’image de son parti  à Perpignan.Credit…Dmitry Kostyukov pour The New York TimesEn 2014, de nombreux électeurs de gauche comme de droite avaient formé avec succès un “front républicain” contre M. Aliot — de la même manière qu’ils avaient fait barrage à Mme Le Pen pour l’élection présidentielle de 2017 remportée par M. Macron.Mais depuis lors, M. Aliot a réussi à adoucir l’image du parti à Perpignan et à convertir de nouveaux électeurs, tandis que certains castors désabusés sont restés chez eux ou ont voté blanc le jour de l’élection en 2020. M. Aliot a gagné haut la main — une forme de revanche contre le même adversaire qu’en 2014 qui, comme M. Macron, avait viré à droite et s’était présenté comme le meilleur rempart contre l’extrême-droite.À l’échelle nationale, Mme Le Pen, qui fut pendant dix ans, jusqu’en 2019, la partenaire au civil de M. Aliot, adopte la même tactique d’assainissement de l’image de son parti, même si des questions demeurent quant à la réalité et la sincérité de ses efforts.Elle a modéré le programme économique longtemps populiste de son parti — en renonçant par exemple à la proposition d’abandonner l’euro et en promouvant la réindustrialisation verte — tout en perpétuant, voire en durcissant, les positions-clés et fermes du parti sur l’immigration, l’islam et la sécurité.Les efforts que déploie le parti pour se fondre dans les courants politiques traditionnels mettent M. Macron face à un dilemme. Sentant le danger politique à droite et sans réel challenger à sa gauche, il tente de combattre le Rassemblement National sur son propre terrain — en opérant un glissement vers la droite pour disputer à ce dernier les électeurs tentés de changer de camp. Ce faisant, M. Macron espère tenir l’extrême-droite à distance.Mais ce changement a aussi contribué à destigmatiser l’extrême-droite, tout du moins nombre de ses propositions, selon les leaders du Rassemblement National, des membres du propre parti de M. Macron, et des politologues. La stratégie de M. Macron pourrait avoir la conséquence imprévue d’aider le Rassemblement National dans son combat de plusieurs décennies pour devenir un parti normal, préviennent-ils.“Ça légitime ce qu’on dit”, dit M Aliot. “C’est des gens qui vous ont dit pendant 30 ans : attention, ceux-là ils sont méchants, ce sont des fachos, parce qu’ils s’en prennent aux musulmans. Tout d’un coup ils parlent comme nous.”Ces derniers mois, M. Macron et ses ministres ont tenté de s’approprier des thèmes chers à l’extrême-droite au moyen de politiques et d’expressions nouvelles. Ils ont adopté une posture ferme sur la criminalité, proposé des lois pour limiter la diffusion des images de policiers — abandonnées suite à des manifestations — et sévi sur ce qu’ils nomment le séparatisme islamiste. Lors d’un récent débat télévisé face à Marine Le Pen, le ministre de l’Intérieur Gérald Darmanin accusait celle-ci d’être “branlante” et “plus molle” sur l’islamisme que le gouvernement.Emmanuel Macron entreprend de combattre le Rassemblement National sur son propre terrain — glissant vers la droite pour disputer à ce dernier les électeurs tentés de faire défection.Credit…Pool photo by Thomas CoexMarine Le Pen tente d’assainissement l’image de son parti, même si des questions demeurent quant à la réalité et la sincérité de ses efforts.Credit…Alain Jocard/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIls ont adopté une stratégie identitaire, commandant une enquête sur “l’islamo-gauchisme” dans les universités françaises et d’autres idées supposées d’inspiration américaine qu’ils accusent de saper les valeurs françaises.“Plus on va sur leur terrain, plus on les renforce”, estime Jean-Michel Mis, un député de La République En Marche, au sujet du Rassemblement National. “Donc leurs dirigeants sont très contents parce que finalement on légitime leurs thèmes de campagne.”Pour Nicolas Lebourg, un politologue spécialiste du Rassemblement National, l’adoption des thèmes de l’extrême-droite est souvent contre-productive. “Ce qu’ils sont en train de faire, c’est faire la campagne de Marine Le Pen,” explique-t-il.Alors que M. Macron se présente comme le meilleur candidat pour protéger la France de l’extrême-droite, les sondages démontrent que les électeurs sont de plus en plus las d’être toujours appelés à voter contre, plutôt que pour, un candidat.Jacques et Régine Talau comptent parmi les anciens castors de Perpignan. Ce couple de retraités avait toujours voté pour la droite classique et avait contribué au barrage contre l’extrême-droite lors des municipales de 2014, puis des élections présidentielles de 2017.Historiquement à droite et en proie aux difficultés économiques, Perpignan était sans doute un terrain naturel pour le parti de Mme Le Pen qui, ces dernières années, avait remporté de petites villes sinistrées dans le sud et le nord du pays. Mais le ralliement du couple Talau a marqué un tournant.Leur quartier, le Mas Llaro, une succession de demeures cossues construites sur de larges parcelles au milieu des vignobles, à la périphérie est de la ville, est la plus riche de Perpignan. En 2020, plus de 60% de ses résidents ont voté pour M Aliot — 7 points de plus que sa moyenne dans la ville et 10 de plus qu’en 2014.Parmi les anciens castors de Perpignan, il y a Jacques Talau, à gauche, et sa femme Régine, des retraités qui votaient toujours pour la droite classique.Credit…Dmitry Kostyukov pour The New York TimesLe Mas Llaro a toujours voté pour la droite traditionnelle.Mais, désabusés et lassés du statu quo, les Talaus, comme bien d’autres, ont voté pour la première fois pour l’extrême-droite l’année dernière, séduits par l’accent mis par M. Aliot sur la propreté et la criminalité. Leur maison a été cambriolée deux fois, disent-ils.Bien que satisfait du bilan du maire, M. Talau indique qu’il se ralliera quand même au barrage contre l’extrême-droite pour la prochaine présidentielle et votera Macron en se bouchant le nez. En revanche, Mme Talau envisage désormais de voter pour Marine Le Pen.“Elle a mis de l’eau dans son vin”, estime Mme Talau, ajoutant que M. Macron n’est “pas assez dur”.L’adversaire de M. Aliot en 2014 et 2020, Jean-Marc Pujol, candidate du centre-droit, avait viré davantage vers la droite pour tenter, sans succès, de contrer l’extrême-droite. Il avait gonflé les effectifs de la police, d’après les statistiques gouvernementales, faisant de Perpignan la grande ville de France avec le plus grand nombre de policiers par habitant. Malgré cela, nombre de ses partisans historiques semblent avoir davantage fait confiance à l’extrême droite sur le sujet de la criminalité, et fait défection. De nombreux de castors à gauche se sont plaints d’avoir été ignorés et ont refusé de participer une nouvelle fois à la construction de barrages, dit Agnès Langevine, la candidate des Verts et des Socialistes aux municipales de 2020.“Et ils nous disaient : en 2022, si c’est un Macron-Le Pen, je ne ferai pas plus,” ajoute-t-elle.M. Lebourg, le politologue, estime que M. Aliot a aussi gagné le vote des riches électeurs conservateurs comme les Talaus en adoptant un message économique classique — la même stratégie qu’adopte Mme Le Pen.. Depuis qu’elle a pris les rênes du parti il y a dix ans, Mme Le Pen travaille dur pour “dédiaboliser” le parti.Un monument aux morts à Perpignan, une ville historiquement à droite, en proie à des difficultés économiques, et sensible à la rhétorique du Ralliement National. Credit…Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York TimesEn 2015, elle a expulsé son propre père, Jean-Marie Le Pen, qui avait fondé le parti et a longtemps minimisé l’Holocauste.Tout en popularisant des expressions comme “l’ensauvagement”, elle a consciemment évité tout langage explosif évoquant un supposé “grand remplacement” de la population française blanche par les immigrants africains et musulmans. En 2018, elle a rebaptisé le Front National du nom plus inclusif de “Rassemblement”.Le parti veut cependant durcir les politiques migratoires pour les étudiants étrangers et diviser le solde migratoire par vingt.Il veut aussi interdire le port du voile musulman en public et limiter la “présence d’éléments ostentatoires” à l’extérieur des lieux de culte s’ils ne s’accordent pas avec l’environnement, dans une référence apparente aux minarets.À Perpignan, M. Aliot s’est concentré sur la criminalité, dépensant 8 millions d’euros pour l’embauche de 30 nouveaux policiers, l’ouverture de nouveaux commissariats et la mise en place de patrouilles à vélo et nocturnes, en réponse à une augmentation du trafic de drogues.Jeanne Mercier, une électrice de gauche âgée de 24 ans, dit que beaucoup gens autour d’elle ont été “séduits” par le maire d’extrême-droite.Camille Rosa, à gauche, vote à gauche, mais ne sait pas si elle fera de nouveau barrage contre Marine Le Pen lors des élections présidentielles de 2022.Credit…Dmitry Kostyukov pour The New York Times“On est le test pour montrer à la France que le FN fonctionne et les gens adhèrent et sont contents”, dit-t-elle, utilisant l’ancien nom du parti. “Finalement c’est pas tant le diable que ça.”Camille Rosa, 35 ans, ne sait pas si elle fera à nouveau barrage contre Mme Le Pen l’année prochaine. Les attaques des ministres du président contre “l’islamo-gauchisme” et les universitaires spécialistes du féminisme, du genre ou des questions raciales ont changé son regard sur le gouvernement de M Macron.“J’ai l’impression que leurs ennemis, ce n’est plus du tout l’extrême-droite”, dit-elle, “mais c’est nous, les personnes de gauche”.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More