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      Bolsonaro Is Silent After Brazil Election Defeat

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      President Jair Bolsonaro has not yet recognized his election defeat after months of warning, without evidence, that opponents would rig the vote.BRASÍLIA — Brazil on Monday woke up to a moment that it had long been bracing for.President Jair Bolsonaro narrowly lost the presidential election to his leftist challenger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but 12 hours later, he had yet to say anything publicly.His silence was becoming increasingly worrying because Mr. Bolsonaro, a far-right leader often compared to former President Donald J. Trump, has been warning for months that he might not accept defeat, raising concerns about the stability of Latin America’s largest country and one of the world’s biggest democracies.Mr. Bolsonaro has consistently claimed, without evidence, that Brazil’s electronic voting system is rife with fraud and that the left was planning to rig the vote. As a result, millions of his supporters have lost faith in the integrity of their nation’s elections, according to polls, and many said publicly that they were prepared to take to the streets at his command.But in the hours after Mr. Bolsonaro’s election loss, Brazil remained relatively calm, aside from the dancing in the streets among Mr. da Silva’s joyful supporters.As of 9 a.m. local time Monday (8 a.m. E.S.T.), 13 hours after the race was called, Mr. Bolsonaro and his three politician sons, who are prolific users of social media, had not commented publicly since election results were announced.Just after 10 p.m. Sunday night, the lights were already out at the presidential palace and Mr. Bolsonaro’s closest aides had left.Voters in Brazil ousted President Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right leader, after just one term and elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president, to replace him.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesYet in the meantime, some of Mr. Bolsonaro’s top allies were accepting Mr. da Silva’s victory, albeit begrudgingly.“The dream of freedom of more than 51 million Brazilians lives on,” Carla Zambelli, a far-right congresswoman who has warned of rigged elections for years, posted on Twitter on Sunday night. “And I PROMISE you, I will be the toughest opposition Lula has ever imagined,” she added, referring to Mr. da Silva.Ms. Zambelli is one of Mr. Bolsonaro’s most prominent allies in Congress, with millions of followers on social media, as well as one of Brazil’s most combative politicians. A day before the election, she made headlines for pulling a gun on a supporter of Mr. da Silva in São Paulo in a scene captured on video. She was not charged.Many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters appeared less ready to throw in the towel.Misinformation about potential voter fraud spread rapidly in conservative corners of the Brazilian internet in the hours after the election, including unattributed videos that purported to show voting machines malfunctioning and speculation that patterns in the vote returns suggested something was amiss. Brazil’s election officials said there was no evidence of fraud on Sunday.On the streets of some of Brazil’s biggest cities on Sunday night, many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters also shouted that the election was stolen — and then said they were returning home, dejected, to wait for word from the president.“I don’t know if my vote was counted nor the votes of the people here,” said Marcelo Costa Andrade, 45, a government worker scrolling through his phone at what he hoped would be a victory party in Mr. Bolsonaro’s wealthy beachside neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro. “I feel robbed.”Mr. Bolsonaro, center, arriving to vote in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday. For months he had been warning that the country’s voting machines could be rigged. Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesBut, despite his suspicion that the election might have been stolen, he was preparing to leave. “Now I’ll go home, talk to my family, lean on God and wait for Bolsonaro to say something,” he said.There were signs, however, that some of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters were not going to wait for him to speak before publicly rejecting the results. In Mato Grosso, the heart of Brazil’s farming region, near the center of the country, truckers started fires and tried to block parts of a main highway that is a vital link for shipping agricultural goods in the hours after the results were announced, according to videos posted on social media and local news reports.Brazil’s truckers broadly support Mr. Bolsonaro and, a year ago, some had attempted to stop working and block roads in protest of the Brazilian Supreme Court’s efforts to counter some of Mr. Bolsonaro’s policies.And on Monday morning, thousands of supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro joined more than a dozen groups on the messaging app Telegram that called for “paralyzing” the country to show they would not accept Mr. da Silva’s victory.In a group focused on Rio de Janeiro, they circulated plans to create a blockade outside one of the nation’s largest oil refineries, just north of the city, on Monday morning. In another group centered on Brasília, the nation’s capital, people posted calls for a military intervention and massive protests in the afternoon.Adding to some officials’ concerns on Monday was that Mr. Bolsonaro lost in the narrowest presidential election in the 34 years of Brazil’s modern democracy. Mr. da Silva won by 2.1 million votes, or 1.8 percentage points, in an election where more than 118 million Brazilians voted.In his acceptance speech on Sunday night, Mr. da Silva recognized the country’s deep division and said he would seek to unite the nation. “I will govern for 215 million Brazilians, and not just for those who voted for me,” he said. “There are not two Brazils. We are one country, one people, one great nation.”Mr. da Silva is set to take office on Jan. 1.Flávia Milhorance and Leonardo Coelho contributed reporting from Rio de Janeiro and André Spigariol from Brasília. More

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      Some Republicans Want to Count Votes by Hand. Bad Idea, Experts Say.

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      Over the past two years, Republicans have pursued an array of changes to how Americans vote. The past few weeks have drawn attention to a particularly drastic idea: counting all ballots by hand.Officials in Cochise County, Ariz., recently pushed to do that in next month’s election, and whether or not they go through with it, the efforts may spread. Republicans in at least six states introduced bills this year that would have banned machine tabulation, and several candidates for statewide offices have expressed support, including Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, the party’s nominees for Arizona’s governor and secretary of state, and Jim Marchant, its nominee for Nevada’s secretary of state.The New York Times spoke with six experts in election administration, and all said the same thing: While hand counting is an important tool for recounts and audits, tallying entire elections by hand in any but the smallest jurisdictions would cause chaos and make results less accurate, not more.“People who think they would have greater confidence in this process think so because they haven’t seen it,” said Mark Lindeman, the policy and strategy director at Verified Voting, a nonpartisan organization focused on election technology. “The process in real life would not inspire confidence at all on this scale.”The proposals often stem from false claims by former President Donald J. Trump and his allies that voting technology was somehow to blame for Mr. Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential election. Most of those claims center on electronic voting machines, but some extend to scanners and tabulators that count paper ballots.The right-wing arguments against tabulators rely not on evidence that they have been compromised — because there is none — but on the possibility that they could be. In a lawsuit filed in April, Ms. Lake and Mr. Finchem asked a federal court to mandate hand counting in Arizona, arguing that the state’s ballot scanners were “potentially unsecure” and denied voters “the right to have their votes counted and reported in an accurate, auditable, legal and transparent process.” The court dismissed the case, and Ms. Lake and Mr. Finchem are appealing.Research indicates that hand counting increases errors.A study published in 2012 looked at discrepancies between initial counts and recounts in New Hampshire and found that, on average, those discrepancies were 0.8 percentage points smaller in towns that used scanners than in towns that counted by hand. A study in 2018 analyzed two statewide races in Wisconsin and found that “vote counts originally conducted by computerized scanners were, on average, more accurate.”What to Know About the Trump InvestigationsCard 1 of 6Numerous inquiries. More

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      Election Workers Face an Obstacle Course to Reach the Midterms

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      WASHINGTON — In Las Cruces, N.M., self-styled fraud investigators have deluged election officials with open-records demands for office email, images of all 130,000 ballots cast in 2020 and digital records that lay out what votes were cast at every polling place.In Tioga County, Pa., fliers hung on doorknobs urge voters to delay going to polling places until minutes before they close, potentially snarling election-night reporting of results.And in Nye County, Nev., where an election denier is overseeing the next election, officials are recruiting volunteers to hand-count thousands of ballots after the county commission did away with electronic voting machines.With just five weeks left until Election Day on Nov. 8, a drumbeat of lawsuits, harassment, calls to change balloting procedures and demands for reams of election records — driven by people who mistrust or outright reject the idea that elections are fair — are adding to pressures on election officials just as work in advance of the vote is peaking.The problems reflect fears for the November vote and concerns that the demands on voting oversight will further deplete an election infrastructure already pushed to the breaking point — with the 2024 presidential election looming beyond the midterms.“The exhaustion is real for election officials,” Lawrence Norden, the senior director of the elections and government program at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University, said in an interview. He added: “The partisanship and polarization around elections — and election officials themselves — is a strain and a threat to our elections.”Mr. Norden said the pressures on election offices are compounded by a falloff in the federal aid and cybersecurity assistance that poured into the 2020 election. “I’m not so worried for the near term,” he said, “but I am for the long term.”Election workers assisting voters at a polling site in Las Vegas in June.John Locher/Associated PressConsider Lycoming County, Pa., home to the city of Williamsport and some 71,000 predominantly Republican voters. Election critics are in court there, demanding a voluminous record of the county’s 2020 vote. Last month the county board of commissioners approved, then scrapped, a referendum on the November ballot over abolishing electronic voting systems in favor of hand-counting ballots. That referendum, too, had been pushed by election skeptics and deniers. Another records request asked for the names and jobs of the county’s 400 poll workers.“How is the November midterm election the third or fourth thing on my radar?” the county’s director of elections and registration, Forrest K. Lehman, asked. “It should be number one.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with the former football star could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Trouble for Nevada Democrats: The state has long been vital to the party’s hold on the West. Now, Democrats are facing potential losses up and down the ballot.Perhaps the most pressing problem nationwide is a barrage of requests for election records, from photocopies of ballots to images of absentee ballot envelopes and applications. The county clerk in Winnebago County, Wis., Sue Ertmer, said she fielded some 120 demands for records in only a couple of weeks last month. “When you get those types of requests, it gets a little hard to get a lot of other things done,” she said. “It’s a little overwhelming.”Amy Cohen, the executive director of the National Association of State Election Directors, said the barrage of records requests had hit red and blue counties alike. “Election officials don’t wake up on Election Day or the day before and decide to put on an election,” she said. “Running an election takes weeks of preparation.”The requests come from a variety of sources, but a number of election officials noted that Mike Lindell, the pillow salesman and purveyor of conspiracy theories about the 2020 vote, has encouraged supporters to submit them. Election deniers offered instructions on filing records requests at a seminar hosted by Mr. Lindell in Springfield, Mo., in August.In a telephone interview, Mr. Lindell said providing information to the public was an important part of the job of election workers. He added that local supporters had sent him digital recreations of the ballot choices of every voter, commonly called cast vote records, from more than a thousand election jurisdictions. Mr. Lindell said the records support his theory that balloting has been manipulated nationwide, although election experts repeatedly have debunked such claims.“That’s why we can’t have machines used in future elections,” he said. “Any election in the United States going forward, we need to get rid of them.”In Doña Ana County, N.M., which includes Las Cruces, the state’s second-largest city, the county elections staff member in charge of processing open records requests quit this year, in part because of the workload, said Amanda López Askin, the county clerk.Voters waiting in line to cast their ballots during the primary election in Las Cruces, N.M., in 2020.Paul Ratje/Reuters“They demand and accuse, and then they leave you with a year’s worth of work,” she said. “In some cases you have to redact information manually, and you have 80,000 pieces of paper” that must be edited to remove protected data.Some of the records requests seem to have been coordinated by nationwide groups of election deniers. In Pennsylvania, lawsuits in two counties seek to force election officials to turn over cast vote records that state officials say are exempt from disclosure. Both suits are being backed by the Thomas More Society, a Chicago-based conservative law firm that also filed suits seeking to overturn President Biden’s 2020 election victory. The demand for documents comes atop a host of other issues that were already plaguing preparations for November.In a reprise of 2020 pre-election tactics, activist groups promoting the baseless notion of widespread voter fraud are trying to invalidate tens of thousands of voter registrations, mostly in Democratic areas. Most of the challenges have failed.Election administrators in a number of states are rushing to adapt to new rules laid down in recent court cases and laws, some of which would impose harsh penalties for making administrative decisions on balloting matters that long had been seen as matters of discretion. Wisconsin officials, for example, have been barred by a court ruling from contacting would-be voters to correct minor mistakes or omissions in absentee ballots; instead, the ballots must be returned.Election offices in many jurisdictions are being threatened with lawsuits by election-denial groups, or simply being threatened by angry constituents. Meetings of election boards and county commissions have become forums for campaigns to abandon electronic voting machines or rehash fraud claims from 2020.In a handful of places, campaigns have succeeded. In sprawling Nye County, Nev., where some 33,000 voters are sprinkled over an area nearly as big as two Vermonts, County Clerk Mark F. Kampf — who has said he believes Donald J. Trump won in 2020 — is soliciting volunteers to hand-count ballots in November. County commissioners voted in March to stop using voting machines made by Dominion Voting Systems, apparently responding to the debunked conspiracy theory that the machines were rigged to favor Mr. Biden in 2020.Mr. Kampf did not respond to repeated requests for an interview.In Tioga County, Pa., the only snag in election plans is the door-to-door campaign by an election-denial group and watchdog, Audit the Vote PA, to persuade voters to line up at polling stations as they are about to close.Voting during the primary election in Lower Gwynedd, Pa., in May.Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York TimesToni Schuppe, identified as the group’s founder, turned down an interview request, and the county elections director, Penny Whipple, declined to speak on the record. Others said the campaign appears to stem from a conspiracy theory that voting machines are rigged to add bogus Democratic votes throughout the day, and that a last-minute fusillade of votes would thwart that scheme.The only real effect, however, would be to delay the reporting of election results, said Mr. Lehman of Lycoming County, which abuts Tioga. “To get a lot of people showing up at 7:45 p.m. in the dark, in the cold of November, and then have delays at all your precincts — that would be a recipe for chaos,” he said.The stress, and the added workload posed by the growing nationwide trend toward voting by mail, are taking a toll. In Kentucky, more than one in five of the state’s 120 county clerks are not seeking re-election in November, and six have quit outright this year, the state’s top election official, Secretary of State Michael Adams, said.Ms. Ertmer, the Winnebago County clerk, said turnover also has been unusually high in Wisconsin, both among county clerks and municipal clerks who perform most election duties. “I’m going to retire next year,” she said. “I would have continued if the atmosphere was different. I love my job, and the people I work with. But enough is enough.”And in Washoe County, Nev., home to Reno, county officials made it official policy to give legal and public relations help to government officials who are harassed or smeared after the registrar of voters, Deanna Spikula, announced her resignation in June.All that said, Mr. Adams, Ms. Ertmer and other officials said they planned to be ready when voting begins. Mr. Adams even expressed guarded optimism that the wave of activity by election deniers had crested: “The My Pillow guy did his thing on me a week ago, and I thought I’d get thousands of records requests,” he said, referring to Mr. Lindell. “But I got very little.”Some officials, like Anthony W. Perlatti, the director of the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections in Ohio, said they had learned lessons in 2020 that will help in 2022.And Nichole Baldwin, the clerk and registrar of voters in tiny White Pine County, Nev., said she was unfazed by the records requests. “They’re all asking for the same thing: cast vote records,” she said. “I have them on a flash drive, and I’m sending them out as they come in. No big deal.”Indeed, the greatest worry for many was the prospect of the unexpected.Kaitlyn Bernarde, the city clerk in Wausau, Wis., said she was reviewing her emergency management plan, with guidelines for handling aggressive voters and rules governing the conduct of observers inside polling places.In April, she said, primary elections in Wausau went swimmingly. She added: “I anticipate it won’t be as easy in November.” More

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      The ACLU Sues a Nevada County Over Its Plan to Hand-Count Mail Ballots

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      The American Civil Liberties Union of Nevada on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against a rural county over its move to start hand-counting mail-in ballots two weeks before Election Day, saying it would violate state and federal laws.The lawsuit is the latest effort to fight the Nye County commission’s plans to conduct the Nov. 8 election almost entirely with paper ballots and have the vote tallied by hand, in addition to machine tabulation. Election experts have warned that such measures could lead to lengthy delays and chaos.The changes, encouraged by Jim Marchant, the Republican who is running for the state’s top election post, are rooted in baseless conspiracy theories being circulated on the right that voting machines are being used fraudulently.Mr. Marchant, who has been vocal in challenging the 2020 presidential election result, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.The suit was filed as an emergency request known as a writ and aims to stop the county from adopting the measures, said Athar Haseebullah, the A.C.L.U.’s executive director in the state.“They’re treating our democracy as if it’s a game,” Mr. Haseebullah said. “It should be deeply offensive to everybody who cares about the process of election integrity.”Mark Kampf, the Nye County clerk who was appointed to the post in August after the retirement of Sandra Merlino, who had warned against the changes, did not respond to multiple requests for comment.The hand-counting process would be done in public; a presentation at a Sept. 20 county commissioners meeting indicated it would be streamed live and that “citizens become poll watchers at home.”Mr. Haseebullah said that could have a “chilling effect” on voter turnout and potentially violate a state law that asserts that “no voting results of mail ballots may be released until all polling places are closed and all votes have been cast on the day of the election.”“There is a longstanding tradition in the U.S. of not releasing results before Election Day,” said Gowri Ramachandran, senior counsel for the Brennan Center’s Elections and Government Program, which has urged the county against hand-counting. Voters could feel “manipulated by partial results coming out and making them feel like that their vote doesn’t count or their vote doesn’t matter,” Ms. Ramachandran said.Mr. Kampf dismissed such concerns in an interview with The Associated Press, saying that “no one sees the total result in any place.”The county is permitting the use of electronic voting machines for those with “special needs,” which the suit claims would violate state and federal privacy laws that prohibit inquiries about voters’ disability status. Mr. Marchant, who blamed fraud for his 2020 loss in Nevada’s Fourth Congressional District, helped organize the “America First” slate of secretary of state candidates this year, all of whom have repeated former President Donald J. Trump’s election falsehoods. Mr. Marchant is competing against Cisco Aguilar, a Democratic lawyer who once worked for former Senator Harry M. Reid.Democrats have long been successful in Nevada, but this year, they are facing potential losses up and down the ballot in the state. More

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      ‘Una contienda de infarto’: Bolsonaro, Lula da Silva y Brasil tienen 4 semanas trepidantes

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      El presidente Jair Bolsonaro parecía condenado al fracaso de cara a la primera ronda de las elecciones. Pero ahora, rumbo al balotaje, el mandatario de derecha tiene un camino a la reelección.RÍO DE JANEIRO — La madrugada del lunes, el presidente de Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro, se fue a dormir reivindicado. Los resultados electorales de la noche habían demostrado, tal como él lo había afirmado, que las encuestas subestimaban enormemente la fuerza de su movimiento de derecha.Horas más tarde, despertó con un nuevo desafío: ¿cómo obtener millones de votos más en solo cuatro semanas?El 30 de octubre, Bolsonaro se enfrentará a un contrincante de izquierda, el expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, en una segunda vuelta electoral para liderar al país más grande de América Latina.Ahora la contienda —un enfrentamiento entre los dos mayores pesos pesados de la política brasileña— podría inclinarse hacia cualquiera de los dos lados y promete prolongar lo que ya ha sido una dura batalla que ha polarizado al país y puesto a prueba la fortaleza de su democracia.“Lula sigue siendo el favorito, pero uno se puede imaginar totalmente que esto se convierta en una victoria de Bolsonaro”, dijo Oliver Stuenkel, un politólogo brasileño. “Si se suman todos los números de los candidatos de partidos pequeños, hay suficientes votos por ahí”.Da Silva, conocido universalmente como Lula, terminó en primer lugar el domingo, con el 48,4 por ciento de los votos, frente al 43,2 por ciento de Bolsonaro. De este modo, Da Silva se quedó a 1,85 millones de votos del 50 por ciento que necesitaba para una victoria rotunda en la primera vuelta, mientras que Bolsonaro se quedó a ocho millones de votos.Lo que ahora hace que la contienda sea impredecible es que muchos otros votos parecen estar en juego. Casi 10 millones de personas votaron el domingo por candidatos que ahora están fuera de la pelea, con aproximadamente un tercio de esos votos para candidatos de centroderecha. Otros 38 millones de personas votaron en blanco o no votaron.El expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva terminó en primer lugar el domingo con el 48,4 por ciento de los votos, frente al 43,2 por ciento de Bolsonaro.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesA medida que la campaña entra en una segunda fase, ambas partes han expresado confianza. Da Silva dijo que agradecía la oportunidad de finalmente debatir cara a cara con Bolsonaro, mientras que Bolsonaro dijo que creía que su campaña tenía impulso y un plan para la victoria.El lunes, Bolsonaro ya estaba usando las herramientas de su cargo en su beneficio. Adelantó a la próxima semana la entrega de cheques de unos 115 dólares para brasileños de bajos ingresos, parte de un programa de bienestar mensual que recientemente amplió en un intento de última hora de atraer más apoyo. El domingo por la noche, Bolsonaro citó esa ayuda económica como una de las razones por las que superó las predicciones de las encuestas.Las encuestadoras habían pronosticado que Bolsonaro recibiría aproximadamente el 36 por ciento de los votos, más de siete puntos porcentuales por debajo de su resultado real. Sobreestimaron ligeramente el apoyo de Da Silva.La pregunta de por qué las encuestas habían subestimado el apoyo a Bolsonaro confundió a los círculos políticos brasileños el lunes. Los encuestadores especularon que los votantes fueron deshonestos porque se avergonzaban de admitir que iban a votar por el presidente, cuyas afirmaciones falsas sobre una variedad de temas lo han convertido en un paria en algunos círculos, o que simplemente mintieron para sabotear las previsiones. Bolsonaro ha arremetido contra la industria de las encuestas —el domingo por la noche las llamó mentirosas— y muchos de sus partidarios han seguido su ejemplo.Las cosas podrían complicarse aún más antes de la segunda vuelta. El jefe de gabinete de Bolsonaro, Ciro Nogueira, instó a los partidarios del presidente a rechazar a los encuestadores que quieran entrevistarlos.La votación del domingo trajo buenas noticias para los conservadores en la mayoría de las elecciones de gobernadores y diputados, incluyendo muchos candidatos estrechamente alineados con Bolsonaro.Dado Galdieri para The New York Times“De esta manera, se tendrá la certeza desde el principio de que cualquiera de sus resultados es fraudulento”, escribió en Twitter a sus 100.000 seguidores. Luego sugirió que los encuestadores se equivocaron a propósito. “Solo una investigación profunda lo dirá”, dijo.Antonio Lavareda, presidente de Ipespe, una de las principales empresas de sondeos, dijo que tenía que examinar el efecto de los votantes que se quedaron en casa; el 21 por ciento del electorado no votó, el porcentaje más alto desde 1998. También especuló con que muchas personas que dijeron que votarían a terceros candidatos se pasaron a Bolsonaro en el último momento.Pero a pesar de los pronósticos inexactos de su empresa para el presidente en la primera ronda, Lavareda hizo una predicción audaz: el 48,8 por ciento de apoyo a Da Silva el domingo significa que “es prácticamente imposible” que no gane el 30 de octubre.Sin embargo, el fracaso de las encuestas dejó un mal sabor de boca a muchos brasileños y expertos.“Renuncio a las encuestas durante las próximas cuatro semanas”, dijo Brian Winter, analista de América Latina de Americas Society/Council of the Americas, un grupo que impulsa el libre comercio enl a región. “Su metodología no funciona”.Los pronósticos de las encuestas y la falta de claridad en la contienda podrían llevar a una situación tensa cuando se revelen los resultados el 30 de octubre. Bolsonaro ha dicho durante meses a sus partidarios que sospechen de fraude electoral —a pesar de no ofrecer ninguna prueba— y ha sugerido que la única forma en que podría perder es si la elección es robada.Esas afirmaciones sin fundamento parecen haber persuadido a millones de votantes en Brasil.El domingo por la noche, muchos de los partidarios de Bolsonaro ya reclamaban juego sucio. “Es un fraude. Lula no puede estar por delante de Bolsonaro”, dijo Yasmin Simões, de 28 años, una empleada de comercio minorista que esperaba frente a la casa de Bolsonaro en un barrio junto a la playa en Río de Janeiro. “Si Lula es elegido —por fraude— definitivamente va a haber una revuelta y yo voy a estar ahí”.El éxito de los aliados de Bolsonaro y el apoyo que recibió, mayor a lo anticipado, también muestran que tiene un firme control del movimiento conservador en Brasil.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesAlgunos comentaristas conservadores conocidos también empezaron a asegurar, sin dar pruebas, de que algo sospechoso había sucedido en la votación del domingo.“Creo que es MUY posible que hubo fraude”, tuiteó Rodrigo Constantino, comentarista de derecha afincado en Florida, para sus 1,3 millones de seguidores. “¡El ÚNICO OBJETIVO tiene que ser ganar tantos votos para Bolsonaro que ni siquiera un algoritmo raro pueda cambiarlos!”.La votación del domingo fue una buena noticia para los conservadores en la mayoría de las elecciones de gobernadores y congresistas, incluidos muchos de los candidatos más cercanos a la línea de Bolsonaro. Al menos ocho de sus exministros fueron votados al Congreso, entre ellos varios que se vieron envueltos en escándalos. En total, el partido de Bolsonaro ganó 29 curules en el Congreso, con lo que ahora ocupa 112 en total y se posiciona como el partido con más representación tanto en la cámara baja como en el Senado.En consecuencia, si se le elige para un segundo periodo, Bolsonaro podría estar empoderado por su control del Congreso y replantear de manera más significativa su visión para el país. Para Da Silva, un congreso conservador podría complicar sus esfuerzos por gobernar.El éxito de los aliados de Bolsonaro y el apoyo que recibió, mayor a lo anticipado, también muestran que tiene un firme control del movimiento conservador en Brasil.“La derecha moderada de Brasil es un basurero político”, dijo Stuenkel. “Parte de la polarización extrema en Brasil es que, en la derecha, Bolsonaro tiene el dominio absoluto”.En las próximas cuatro semanas, el equipo de Bolsonaro planea ir por el estado clave de Minas Gerais, donde cree que puede cosechar un millón de votos y buscará mejorar sus resultados en el bastión de Da Silva en el nordeste, dijo Fábio Faria, ministro de Comunicaciones de Brasil y alto asesor del presidente. “Estamos muy confiados”, dijo.La campaña de Lula da Silva planea subrayar la serie de afirmaciones falsas de Bolsonaro y mostrar que a la economía le fue mucho mejor durante los dos mandatos de Da Silva, de 2003 a 2010, que en el gobierno de Bolsonaro.Da Silva en un mitin el sábado. Los analistas pronostican que se moderará para atraer a los votantes más de centro.Victor Moriyama para The New York Times“Será la primera oportunidad que tendremos de un debate cara a cara con el presidente”, dijo a sus seguidores Da Silva el domingo por la noche. “¿Va a seguir mintiendo o, por una vez en su vida, va a decirle la verdad al pueblo brasileño?”.Da Silva había enfocado su campaña en aumentar los impuestos para los ricos y en ampliar los servicios para los pobres pero, luego de los resultados del domingo, los analistas dijeron que moderaría su discurso de campaña para atraer a más votantes centristas.“Hay que ir a los rincones bolsonaristas del país”, dijo el senador Jean-Paul Prates, un asesor de la campaña de Da Silva. “Hay que dar la cara, sonreír a la gente del sur, del medio oeste y hablar de las cosas que importan en sus vidas”.En las ocho elecciones presidenciales previas en la democracia moderna de Brasil, el candidato que ha liderado la primera vuelta nunca ha perdido en la segunda. Pero los cinco puntos porcentuales que separan a Bolsonaro y Da Silva también son el margen más reducido que se ha registrado entre dos candidatos en un balotaje.Como resultado, dijo Winter, “esta va a ser una contienda de infarto”.Jack Nicas es el jefe de la corresponsalía en Brasil, que abarca Brasil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. Antes reportó de tecnología desde San Francisco y, antes de integrarse al Times en 2018, trabajó siete años en The Wall Street Journal. @jacknicas • Facebook More

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      Brazil Braces for ‘White-Knuckle Race’ Between Bolsonaro and Lula

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      President Jair Bolsonaro had once looked doomed in the country’s high-stakes election. But now, in a runoff, the right-wing incumbent has a path to re-election.RIO DE JANEIRO — In the early morning hours on Monday, President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil went to bed vindicated. The night’s election results had shown, just as he had claimed, that the polls had severely underestimated the strength of his right-wing movement.Hours later, he awoke to a new challenge: How to obtain millions more votes in just four weeks?On Oct. 30, Mr. Bolsonaro will face a leftist challenger, the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in a runoff election to lead Latin America’s largest nation.Now the contest — a matchup between Brazil’s two biggest political heavyweights — could swing either way and promises to prolong what has already been a bruising battle that has polarized the nation and tested the strength of its democracy.“Lula is still the favorite, but you can totally imagine this becoming a Bolsonaro victory,” said Oliver Stuenkel, a Brazilian political scientist. “If you add up all the numbers of the third-party candidates, there are sufficient votes out there.”Mr. da Silva, known universally as Lula, finished first on Sunday with 48.4 percent of the vote, versus 43.2 percent for Mr. Bolsonaro. That put Mr. da Silva about 1.85 million votes shy of the 50 percent he needed for an outright victory in the first round, while Mr. Bolsonaro came up 8 million votes short.What now makes the race unpredictable is that so many other votes appear up for grabs. Nearly 10 million people cast ballots on Sunday for candidates who are now out of the contest, with roughly a third of those votes going to a center-left candidate and two-thirds to center-right candidates. An additional 38 million people cast blank ballots or did not vote.The former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finished first on Sunday with 48.4 percent of the vote, versus 43.2 percent for Mr. Bolsonaro.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesAs the campaign enters a second phase, both sides have expressed confidence. Mr. da Silva said he welcomed the opportunity to finally debate Mr. Bolsonaro head-to-head, while Mr. Bolsonaro said he believed his campaign had the momentum and a plan for victory.On Monday, Mr. Bolsonaro was already using the tools of his office to his advantage. He moved up to next week the delivery of $115 checks for low-income Brazilians, part of a monthly welfare program that he recently expanded in a last-minute bid to lure more support. On Sunday night, Mr. Bolsonaro cited that assistance as one reason he outperformed predictions by polls.Pollsters had forecast that Mr. Bolsonaro would receive roughly 36 percent of the vote, more than 7 percentage points below his actual tally. They had overestimated Mr. da Silva’s support only slightly.The question of why the polls had underestimated Mr. Bolsonaro’s support confounded Brazilian political circles on Monday. Pollsters speculated that voters were dishonest because they were ashamed to admit they were voting for the president, whose false claims on a variety of issues have made him a pariah in some circles, or that they simply lied to sabotage the forecasts. Mr. Bolsonaro has railed against the polling industry — on Sunday night he called them liars — and many of his supporters have followed suit.Things could get even more complicated ahead of the runoff. Mr. Bolsonaro’s chief of staff, Ciro Nogueira, urged the president’s supporters to reject any pollsters wanting to interview them.The vote on Sunday delivered good news for conservatives in most governor and congressional elections, including many candidates closely aligned with Mr. Bolsonaro. Dado Galdieri for The New York Times“That way, it’ll be certain from the start that any of their results are fraudulent,” he wrote on Twitter to his 100,000 followers. He then suggested the pollsters got it wrong on purpose. “Only a deep investigation will tell,” he said.Antonio Lavareda, the president of Ipespe, a top polling company, said he needed to examine the effect of voters staying home; 21 percent of the electorate did not vote, the highest share since 1998. He also speculated that many people who said they would vote for third-party candidates switched to Mr. Bolsonaro at the last minute.But despite his firm’s inaccurate forecasts for the president in the first round, Mr. Lavareda still made a bold prediction: Mr. da Silva’s 48.4 percent support on Sunday meant that “it’s practically impossible” he does not win on Oct. 30.Still, the fallout from the polls left a bad taste for many Brazilians and experts.“I’ve sworn off polls for the next four weeks,” said Brian Winter, a Latin America analyst with Americas Society/Council of the Americas, a group that pushes free trade in the Americas. “Their methodology is broken.”The survey forecasts and lack of clarity in the race could lead to a tense situation when the results are revealed on Oct. 30. Mr. Bolsonaro has for months told his supporters to suspect voter fraud — despite offering no evidence — and he has suggested that the only way he could lose is if the election is stolen.Those unsubstantiated claims appear to have persuaded millions of voters in Brazil. On Sunday night, many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters were already claiming foul play. “It’s fraud. Lula can’t be ahead of Bolsonaro,” said Yasmin Simões, 28, a retail employee gathered with other supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro outside his home in a beachside neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro. “If Lula is elected — by fraud — there’s definitely going to be a revolt, and I’m in.”The success of Mr. Bolsonaro’s allies and his stronger-than-expected support also shows that he maintains a firm grip on the conservative movement in Brazil.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesSome prominent conservative pundits also began pushing claims, without evidence, that something fishy had occurred in Sunday’s voting.“I think it’s VERY possible that there was fraud,” Rodrigo Constantino, a right-wing Brazilian pundit who lives in Florida, wrote to his 1.3 million followers on Twitter. “The ONLY GOAL has to be to win so many votes for Bolsonaro that not even a strange algorithm can change it!”The vote on Sunday delivered good news for conservatives in most governor and congressional elections, including many candidates closely aligned with Mr. Bolsonaro. At least eight of his former ministers were elected to Congress, including several who were once shrouded in scandal. Overall, Mr. Bolsonaro’s political party picked up 29 seats in Congress, giving it 112 in total, the biggest party in both the House and Senate.As a result, if elected to a second term, Mr. Bolsonaro could be emboldened by his effective control of Congress and more significantly remake Brazilian society in his vision. For Mr. da Silva, the conservative Congress could complicate his efforts to govern.The success of Mr. Bolsonaro’s allies and his stronger-than-expected support also shows that he maintains a firm grip on the conservative movement in Brazil.“Brazil’s moderate right is a political wasteland,” Mr. Stuenkel said. “Part of the extreme polarization in Brazil is that, on the right, Bolsonaro reigns supreme.”Over the next four weeks, Mr. Bolsonaro’s team plans to target the swing state of Minas Gerais, where it believes it can pick up one million votes, and looks to improve its results in Mr. da Silva’s stronghold in Brazil’s Northeast, said Fábio Faria, Brazil’s communications minister and a senior adviser to the president. “We are really confident,” he said.Mr. da Silva’s campaign plans to highlight Mr. Bolsonaro’s string of false statements and show that the economy performed far better during Mr. da Silva’s two terms, from 2003 through 2010, than during Mr. Bolsonaro’s tenure.Mr. da Silva during a rally on Saturday. Analysts predict that he will moderate his stump speech in order to attract more centrist voters.Victor Moriyama for The New York Times“It will be the first chance for us to have a tête-à-tête debate with the president,” Mr. da Silva told supporters Sunday night. “Is he going to keep telling lies or will he, at least once in his life, tell the truth to the Brazilian people?”Mr. da Silva had focused his campaign on raising taxes on the rich to expand services for the poor, but — after Sunday’s results — analysts predicted that he would moderate his stump speech in order to attract more centrists.“You have to go to the Bolsonaro corners of the country,” said Senator Jean-Paul Prates, a senior adviser to Mr. da Silva’s campaign. “You have to show your face, smile at these people in the south, the midwest, and talk about the things that concern their lives.”In the eight previous presidential elections in Brazil’s modern democracy, the candidate that has led in the first round has never lost in the second. But the 5 percentage points separating Mr. Bolsonaro and Mr. da Silva are also the slimmest margin between two candidates in a runoff.As a result, Mr. Winter said, “this is going to be a white-knuckle race.” More

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      Lula y Bolsonaro protagonizarán la elección presidencial brasileña más polarizada de los últimos años

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      Los brasileños que votarán el domingo elegirán entre dos titanes políticos, con planes e ideologías muy distintas.RÍO DE JANEIRO — Durante la última década, Brasil ha pasado de una crisis a otra: la destrucción del medioambiente, una recesión económica, una presidenta destituida, dos presidentes encarcelados y una pandemia que mató a más personas que en cualquier otro lugar fuera de Estados Unidos.El domingo, los brasileños votarán por su próximo presidente, con la esperanza de impulsar al mayor país de América Latina hacia un futuro más estable y brillante, y decidirán entre dos hombres que están profundamente vinculados a su tumultuoso pasado.Esta elección es considerada como una de las más importantes del país en décadas, según los historiadores brasileños, en parte porque puede estar en riesgo la salud de la cuarta democracia más grande del mundo.El presidente en el poder, Jair Bolsonaro, es un populista de extrema derecha cuyo primer mandato ha destacado por su agitación y sus constantes ataques al sistema electoral. Ha despertado la indignación en su país y la preocupación en el extranjero por sus políticas que aceleraron la deforestación de la selva amazónica, su apuesta por medicamentos no probados en lugar de las vacunas contra la COVID-19 y sus duros ataques a rivales políticos, jueces, periodistas y profesionales de la salud.El contrincante, el expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, es un izquierdista apasionado que supervisó el auge de Brasil durante la primera década de este siglo, pero que luego fue a la cárcel acusado de corrupción. Esos cargos fueron posteriormente retirados, y ahora, tras liderar las encuestas durante meses, el hombre conocido simplemente como Lula está a punto de completar una sorprendente resurrección política.Son quizás las dos figuras más conocidas y más polarizadas de este país de 217 millones de habitantes, y durante más de un año han estado presentando a los votantes visiones muy diferentes para la nación, cuya economía ha sido golpeada por la pandemia y la inflación mundial.Bolsonaro, de 67 años, quiere vender la compañía petrolera estatal de Brasil, abrir la Amazonía a la minería, relajar las regulaciones sobre las armas e introducir valores más conservadores. Da Silva, de 76 años, promete aumentar los impuestos a los ricos para ampliar los servicios para los pobres, lo que incluye ampliar la red de seguridad social, aumentar el salario mínimo y alimentar y dar vivienda a más personas.Partidarios de Bolsonaro en Río de Janeiro. Bolsonaro ha insinuado que la única forma en que cree que perdería las elecciones es si se las roban.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesEl eslogan de la campaña de Bolsonaro es “Dios, familia, patria y libertad”, mientras que Da Silva ha construido su discurso en torno a la promesa de garantizar que todos los brasileños puedan disfrutar de tres comidas al día, incluyendo, ocasionalmente, un corte de carne superior y una cerveza fría en un asado familiar.Sin embargo, en lugar de sus planes para el futuro, gran parte de la carrera ha girado en torno al pasado de cada candidato. Los brasileños se han alineado en uno u otro bando, basándose en gran parte en su oposición a uno de los candidatos, en lugar de su apoyo a ellos.“La palabra principal en esta campaña es rechazo”, dijo Thiago de Aragão, director de estrategia de Arko Advice, una de las mayores consultoras políticas de Brasil. “Estas elecciones son una demostración de cómo los votantes de un país polarizado se unifican en torno a lo que odian en lugar de lo que aman”.La atención del domingo —cuando un total de 11 candidatos presidenciales estarán en la boleta— no solo estará en los recuentos de votos, sino en lo que sucederá después de que se anuncien los resultados.Bolsonaro lleva meses poniendo en duda la seguridad del sistema de votación electrónica de Brasil, afirmando sin pruebas que es vulnerable al fraude y que los partidarios de Da Silva están planeando amañar la votación. Bolsonaro ha dicho, en efecto, que la única manera de que pierda es que le roben las elecciones.Inspectores del Tribunal Superior Electoral empacan las máquinas de votación después de probarlas en São Paulo. En las últimas semanas, el ejército y los funcionarios electorales acordaron un cambio en la forma en que prueban las máquinas, que según Bolsonaro no son confiables.Victor Moriyama para The New York Times“Tenemos tres alternativas para mí: la cárcel, la muerte o la victoria”, dijo a sus partidarios en enormes mítines el año pasado. “Díganles a los bastardos que nunca seré apresado”.A principios de este año, los militares comenzaron a cuestionar el sistema electoral junto con Bolsonaro, lo que suscitó la preocupación de que las fuerzas armadas podrían respaldar al presidente si se niega a admitir la derrota.Pero en las últimas semanas, los militares y los funcionarios electorales acordaron un cambio en las pruebas de las máquinas de votación y los líderes militares dicen que ahora están satisfechos con la seguridad del sistema. Los militares no apoyarían ningún esfuerzo de Bolsonaro para impugnar los resultados, según dos altos funcionarios militares que hablaron de forma anónima debido a las reglas que impiden a los funcionarios militares hablar de política. Algunos generales de alto rango también han intentado recientemente persuadir a Bolsonaro para que se rinda si pierde, según uno de los oficiales.Sin embargo, Bolsonaro no parece estar satisfecho. El miércoles, su partido político publicó un documento de dos páginas en el que afirmaba, sin pruebas, que los empleados y contratistas del gobierno tenían el “poder absoluto de manipular los resultados de las elecciones sin dejar rastro”. Los funcionarios electorales respondieron que las afirmaciones “son falsas y deshonestas” y “un claro intento de obstaculizar y perturbar” las elecciones.Bolsonaro quiere permitir más actividades mineras en la Amazonía y dice que quiere instaurar valores más conservadores.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesEl jueves, en el último debate antes de la votación del domingo, otra candidata le preguntó directamente a Bolsonaro si aceptaría los resultados de las elecciones. No contestó, sino que insultó a la candidata, diciendo que solamente lo desafiaba porque no le había dado trabajo. (A continuación, ella le preguntó si estaba vacunado contra la COVID-19 —su gobierno consideró que su estado de vacunación era un asunto clasificado— y él respondió de forma similar).Da Silva ha mantenido una ventaja dominante en las encuestas desde el año pasado. Si ningún candidato supera el 50 por ciento de los votos el domingo, los dos primeros competirán en una segunda vuelta el 30 de octubre. Parecía que Bolsonaro y da Silva acabarían en otro enfrentamiento, pero el reciente aumento de las cifras de las encuestas de Da Silva sugiere que podría ganar directamente el domingo.Una victoria de Da Silva continuaría un cambio hacia la izquierda en América Latina, con seis de las siete naciones más grandes de la región eligiendo líderes de izquierda desde 2018. También sería un gran golpe para el movimiento global del populismo de derecha que se ha extendido en la última década. El expresidente Donald Trump es un aliado clave de Bolsonaro y ha respaldado al presidente brasileño.Un mitin de campaña de Lula da Silva en Río de Janeiro. Si no gana las elecciones en la primera ronda, habrá una segunda vuelta el 30 de octubre.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesLas encuestas sugieren que si Da Silva gana la presidencia en la primera vuelta del domingo solo sería por un estrecho margen, lo que crearía una oportunidad para que Bolsonaro y sus partidarios argumenten que los resultados se deben a un fraude electoral.Líderes políticos y analistas creen que las instituciones democráticas de Brasil están preparadas para resistir cualquier esfuerzo de Bolsonaro para impugnar los resultados de las elecciones, pero el país se prepara para la violencia. El 75 por ciento de los partidarios de Bolsonaro dijeron a la encuestadora más prominente de Brasil en julio que tenían “poco” o ningún apoyo para los sistemas de votación.“Lo único que puede quitarle la victoria a Bolsonaro es el fraude”, dijo Luiz Sartorelli, de 54 años, un vendedor de software en São Paulo. Enumeró varias teorías de la conspiración sobre un fraude pasado como prueba. “Si quieres la paz, a veces tienes que prepararte para la guerra”.Las elecciones también podrían tener importantes consecuencias medioambientales a nivel mundial. El 60 por ciento de la Amazonía se encuentra dentro de Brasil, y la salud de la selva tropical es fundamental para frenar el calentamiento global y preservar la biodiversidad.Bolsonaro ha provocado indignación en el país y preocupación en el mundo por las políticas que aceleraron la deforestación en la selva amazónica.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesBolsonaro ha relajado las regulaciones sobre la tala y la minería en la Amazonía y ha recortado los fondos federales y el personal de las agencias que hacen cumplir las leyes destinadas a proteger a las poblaciones indígenas y el medio ambiente.En su campaña, ha prometido aplicar estrictamente la normativa medioambiental. Al mismo tiempo, ha puesto en duda las estadísticas que muestran el aumento de la deforestación y ha dicho que Brasil debe ser capaz de aprovechar sus recursos naturales.Da Silva prometió acabar con toda la minería ilegal y la deforestación en la Amazonia y ha dicho que animará a los agricultores y ganaderos a utilizar las tierras no ocupadas que ya han sido deforestadas.Con una ventaja constante en las encuestas, Da Silva ha llevado a cabo una campaña excesivamente reacia a los riesgos. Ha rechazado muchas solicitudes de entrevistas y, la semana pasada, no acudió a un debate.Lula da Silva ha prometido aumentar los impuestos a los ricos para ampliar los servicios a los pobres.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesPero se presentó en el debate del jueves, en el que Bolsonaro lo empezó a atacar inmediatamente. Llamó a Da Silva “mentiroso, exconvicto y traidor”. Afirmó que la izquierda quería sexualizar a los niños y legalizar las drogas. Y trató de relacionar a Da Silva con un asesinato sin resolver de hace 20 años. “El futuro de la nación está en juego”, dijo a los votantes.Da Silva dijo que el presidente mentía. “Usted tiene una hija de 10 años viendo esto”, dijo. “Sea responsable”.André Spigariol More

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      Brazil Faces Big Vote in Presidential Election: Bolsonaro vs. Lula.

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      Brazilians voting for president on Sunday will choose between two political titans in a contest seen as a major test for one of the world’s largest democracies.RIO DE JANEIRO — For the past decade, Brazil has lurched from one crisis to the next: environmental destruction, an economic recession, one president impeached, two presidents imprisoned and a pandemic that killed more people than anywhere else outside the United States.On Sunday, Brazilians will cast their ballots for their next president, hoping to push Latin America’s largest country toward a more stable and brighter future — by deciding between two men who are deeply tied to its tumultuous past.The election is widely regarded as the nation’s most important vote in decades, historians in Brazil say, in part because the health of one of the world’s biggest democracies may be at stake.The incumbent, President Jair Bolsonaro, is a far-right populist whose first term has stood out for its turmoil and his constant attacks on the electoral system. He has drawn outrage at home and concern abroad for policies that accelerated deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, for his embrace of unproven drugs over Covid-19 vaccines and for his harsh attacks on political rivals, judges, journalists and health professionals.The challenger, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is a left-wing firebrand who oversaw Brazil’s boom during the first decade of this century, but then went to prison on corruption charges. Those charges were later thrown out, and now, after leading in polls for months, the man simply known as “Lula” is poised to complete a stunning political resurrection.They are perhaps the two best-known, and most polarizing, figures in this nation of 217 million people, and for more than a year, they have been pitching voters on starkly different visions for the country, whose economy has been battered by the pandemic and global inflation.Mr. Bolsonaro, 67, wants to sell Brazil’s state-owned oil company, open the Amazon to more mining, loosen regulations on guns and usher in more conservative values. Mr. da Silva, 76, promises to raise taxes on the rich to expand services for the poor, including widening the social safety net, increasing the minimum wage, and feeding and housing more people.Supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro in Rio de Janiero. Mr. Bolsonaro has implied that the only way he believes he would lose the election is if it were stolen from him.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesMr. Bolsonaro’s campaign slogan is “God, family, homeland and liberty,” while Mr. da Silva has built his pitch around a pledge to ensure that all Brazilians can enjoy three meals a day, including, occasionally, a top cut of meat and a cold beer at a family barbecue.Yet, instead of their plans for the future, much of the race has revolved around each candidate’s past. Brazilians have lined up on either side based in large part on their opposition to one of the candidates, instead of their support for them.“The major word in this campaign is rejection,” said Thiago de Aragão, strategy director at Arko Advice, one of Brazil’s largest political consultancies. “This election is a demonstration of how voters in a polarized country unify themselves around what they hate instead of what they love.”The focus on Sunday — when a total of 11 presidential candidates will be on the ballot — will not just be on the vote tallies, but also on what will happen after the results are announced.Mr. Bolsonaro has been casting doubt on the security of Brazil’s electronic voting system for months, claiming without evidence that it is vulnerable to fraud and that Mr. da Silva’s supporters are planning to rig the vote. Mr. Bolsonaro has, in effect, said that the only way he would lose is if the election were stolen from him.Electoral Court inspectors packing up voting machines after testing them in São Paulo. In recent weeks, the military and election officials agreed to a change in how they test the machines, which Mr. Bolsonaro has claimed are unreliable.Victor Moriyama for The New York Times“We have three alternatives for me: Prison, death or victory,” he told supporters at enormous rallies last year. “Tell the bastards I’ll never be arrested.”Earlier this year, the military began challenging the election system alongside Mr. Bolsonaro, raising concerns that the armed forces could back the president if he refuses to concede.But in recent weeks, the military and election officials agreed on a change to tests of the voting machines, and military leaders say they are now satisfied with the system’s security. The military would not support any efforts by Mr. Bolsonaro to challenge the results, according to two senior military officials who spoke anonymously because of rules against military officials discussing politics. Some senior generals have also recently tried to persuade Mr. Bolsonaro to concede if he loses, according to one of the officials.Mr. Bolsonaro, however, still does not seem satisfied. On Wednesday, his political party released a two-page document claiming, without evidence, that some government employees and contractors had the “absolute power to manipulate election results without leaving a trace.” Election officials fired back that the claims “are false and dishonest” and “a clear attempt to hinder and disrupt” the election.Mr. Bolsonaro wants to open the Amazon to more mining and says he wants to usher in more conservative values.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesOn Thursday, at the final debate before Sunday’s vote, Mr. Bolsonaro was asked directly by another candidate if he would accept the election results. He did not answer. Instead, he insulted the candidate, saying she was only challenging him because he fired her friends from government jobs. (She then asked if he was vaccinated for Covid-19 — his government deemed his vaccine status to be classified — and he responded similarly.)Mr. da Silva has held a commanding lead in the polls since last year. If no candidate exceeds 50 percent of the vote on Sunday, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff on Oct. 30. It had appeared that Mr. Bolsonaro and Mr. da Silva would end up in another showdown then, but a recent surge in Mr. da Silva’s poll numbers suggests that he could win outright on Sunday.A victory for Mr. da Silva would continue a leftward shift in Latin America, with six of the region’s seven largest nations electing leftist leaders since 2018. It also would be a major blow to the global movement of right-wing populism that has spread in the last decade. Former President Donald J. Trump is a key ally of Mr. Bolsonaro and has endorsed the Brazilian president.A campaign rally for Mr. da Silva in Rio de Janiero. If he does not win next week’s election outright, there will be a runoff on Oct. 30.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesPolls suggest that if Mr. da Silva wins the presidency in Sunday’s first round it would only be by a slim margin, creating an opening for Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters to argue that voter fraud accounted for the results.Political leaders and analysts believe that Brazil’s democratic institutions are prepared to withstand any effort by Mr. Bolsonaro to dispute the election’s results, but the nation is bracing for violence. Seventy-five percent of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters told Brazil’s most prominent pollster in July that they had “little” or no support for the voting systems.“The only thing that can take victory from Bolsonaro is fraud,” said Luiz Sartorelli, 54, a software salesman in São Paulo. He listed several conspiracy theories about past fraud as proof. “If you want peace, sometimes you need to prepare for war.”The election could also have major global environmental consequences. Sixty percent of the Amazon lies within Brazil, and the health of the rainforest is critical to stemming global warming and preserving biodiversity.Mr. Bolsonaro has drawn outrage at home and concern abroad for policies that accelerated deforestation in the Amazon rainforest.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesMr. Bolsonaro has loosened regulations on logging and mining in the Amazon, and slashed federal funds and staffing for the agencies that enforce laws intended to protect Indigenous populations and the environment.In his campaign, he has promised to strictly enforce environmental regulations. At the same time, he has cast doubt on statistics that show soaring deforestation and has said that Brazil must be able to take advantage of its natural resources.Mr. da Silva has pledged to end all illegal mining and deforestation in the Amazon, and said that he would encourage farmers and ranchers to use unoccupied land that has already been deforested.With a steady lead in the polls, Mr. da Silva has run an exceedingly risk-averse campaign. He has declined many interview requests and, last week, he skipped a debate.Mr. da Silva has promised to raise taxes on the rich to expand services for the poor.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesBut he did show up at Thursday’s debate, where Mr. Bolsonaro immediately started swinging. He called Mr. da Silva a “liar, ex-convict and traitor.” He claimed the left wanted to sexualize children and legalize drugs. And he tried to connect Mr. da Silva to a 20-year-old unsolved murder. “The future of the nation is at stake,” he told voters.Mr. da Silva said the president was lying. “You have a 10-year-old daughter watching this,” he said. “Be responsible.”André Spigariol and Flávia Milhorance contributed reporting. More