More stories

  • in

    The Big Question the Georgia Senate Race Will Answer

    What’s more powerful: a candidate’s skills and relevant experience, or the tug of political partisanship?As the second-most expensive Senate race in American history approaches its climax on Tuesday, we are about to learn the answer to a question the two sides in Georgia have spent more than $400 million trying to answer: Can a former football star learn just enough about politics to oust one of the most skilled communicators in Congress?Or has Senator Raphael Warnock been sufficiently nimble in navigating a difficult political climate for Democrats to stave off his ouster?In other words, who was right? The Republicans who warned this spring that Herschel Walker was too untested and too laden with personal baggage to win, or former President Donald Trump, who bet that sports celebrity and national political headwinds would be decisive?There is ample evidence for either proposition; Georgia is very much a purple state. Their first bout ended with Warnock just shy of a majority, forcing Tuesday’s runoff election. Fewer than 40,000 votes separated the two men on Election Day.Since then, Warnock has outspent Walker, his Republican opponent, by more than two to one — running 19 unique ads compared with just six for Walker.The campaign has grown sharply negative and increasingly personal in its closing weeks, with a growing focus on Walker’s rambling speeches and his treatment of women. This weekend, NBC News broadcast an interview with Cheryl Parsa, a former romantic partner of Walker’s who accused him of threatening her with physical violence.Walker denies being violent, and he has proved remarkably resilient in light of all the information Democrats have arrayed against him. Polls show no sign that his support has collapsed.To sort through these and other themes, I chatted with Maya King, an Atlanta-based politics reporter for The New York Times:It’s pretty clear that a lot of Republicans have come to regret the fact that Herschel Walker is their nominee. What are some of the ways they’ve tried to compensate for his deficiencies as a candidate?The biggest thing Republicans have done is call in national figures to serve as “validators” of sorts for Walker. It seems that Georgia Republicans’ biggest issue with their candidate is his inability to clearly explain the policies he might champion or deliver a campaign message straying from cultural red-meat issues that appeal only to his hyper-conservative base. That’s why you see him flanked by other Republican senators like Lindsey Graham or Ted Cruz in some of his television interviews.They have also campaigned alongside him quite a bit. At a rally on Sunday, Senators John Kennedy of Louisiana and Tim Scott of South Carolina gave remarks. And while neither Donald Trump nor Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida has come to Georgia to campaign with Walker, they have attached their names to fund-raising emails for him.What to Know About the Georgia Senate RunoffCard 1 of 6Another runoff in Georgia. More

  • in

    Everything Democrats Could Do if Warnock Wins

    Nearly two years ago, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff won runoff elections in Georgia that allowed the new vice president, Kamala Harris, to be the Senate’s tiebreaking vote. Those victories were critical to unleashing a remarkable wave of legislation and spending.Without Mr. Warnock and Mr. Ossoff, President Biden could not have made substantial investments in roads, bridges, public transportation and semiconductor chip manufacturing. He could not have permitted Medicare to negotiate the price of prescription drugs. He could not have taken tangible steps to combat climate change. The 2021 tranche of federal pandemic aid, today criticized for contributing to inflation, offered critical bailouts for local governments that headed off crippling layoffs and brutal cuts to public schools.Now Mr. Warnock is locked in another runoff on Dec. 6, this time against Herschel Walker, the former football star. The stakes feel lower for this one: Democrats are already guaranteed a Senate majority. And no matter the outcome in Georgia, Congress will be divided, with the House in the hands of Republicans.Yet the outcome of Mr. Warnock’s contest matters significantly, for Democrats and Republicans alike — but especially for Democrats. They need Mr. Warnock in power for at least two overriding reasons: to safeguard their gains in the judiciary and to bolster their national bench.Under President Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell was venerated — or denounced — for his efficient and cutthroat approach to ramming through Mr. Trump’s Supreme Court picks and confirming federal judges.In four years, Mr. McConnell’s Senate majority confirmed three right-wing justices and 234 new judges overall, many of them youthful conservatives rubber-stamped by the Federalist Society. These Trump appointees can serve for the rest of their lives; it is plausible that some of them will still be remaking federal law 30 or 40 years from now. Most of these judges are avowed originalists, fiercely opposed to the “living Constitution” school that dominates liberal jurisprudence and allowed for all sorts of social progress that is now being turned back. The overturning of Roe v. Wade is the exemplar.Since Democrats retook the Senate majority in 2021, Mr. Biden has undertaken his own successful counteroffensive, in tandem with Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader. Mr. Schumer’s Senate has actually confirmed federal judges at a faster rate than Mr. McConnell’s at the time of the first midterm election. So far, over 85 judges appointed by Mr. Biden have been confirmed, including a new Supreme Court justice, Ketanji Brown Jackson. The judges, overall, are traditional liberals, many of them younger and nonwhite. Mr. Biden and Mr. Schumer were willing to elevate judges who were former public defenders, an unlikely prospect in the law-and-order 20th century.If Mr. Warnock wins, the Senate can move more rapidly and seek judges who are perhaps more progressive in their worldviews — the sort who could hit a snag if someone like Joe Manchin, the centrist from West Virginia, or Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is the deciding vote.Democrats must evenly split committee members in the 50-50 Senate, giving Republicans the power to delay votes on judges. A 51-49 majority would be much more dominant: Committees like the judiciary would be stacked with Democrats, greatly speeding up the confirmation process. There are about 75 vacancies on U.S. District Courts and nine at the appellate level. That number is bound to grow as more judges retire in the next two years.Democrats, with Mr. Warnock, could also be in position to replace a Supreme Court justice. The 6-3 conservative majority makes this seem less pressing, but Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death was a lesson that Stephen Breyer, who retired this year, seemed to heed: Once you’re of retirement age, it’s best to leave the court if an ideologically friendly president and Senate majority are in control.Sonia Sotomayor is 68 and Elena Kagan is 62. Both can serve for decades, but Democrats have to think seriously about the practical advantage of installing liberal justices who are in their 40s or early 50s. Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed at 48; Neil Gorsuch was 49. Justice Breyer wisely gave way to Justice Jackson. Perhaps Justice Sotomayor, at least, should give thought to stepping aside with Mr. Biden in the White House and Mr. Schumer guiding the Senate. With 51 votes, Mr. Schumer could steer through a judge who is as progressive as either Justice Sotomayor or Kagan, helping to nurture a liberal minority that could theoretically expand someday.And then there’s 2024. If Mr. Walker defeats Mr. Warnock, Republicans will have an enormous advantage in their quest to not only flip the Senate but also build a durable majority that could last a generation or more. The 2024 map is foreboding for Democrats: Assuming they run for re-election, three incumbents represent states that Mr. Trump handily carried in 2020. Mr. Manchin, resented by the left, will have to find a way to win in deep-red West Virginia (Mr. Trump carried the state in 2020 with nearly 70 percent of the vote). Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio (who has stated he will run) will have to win a state that has now twice voted for Mr. Trump and is sending J.D. Vance to Washington. Jon Tester of Montana has the daunting task of trying to win a rural state that has in recent years become inhospitable to Democrats for statewide offices.A 51-49 majority is a better hedge against such a possible wipeout. It also gives Mr. Warnock a chance to shine on the national level and demonstrate whether he can become a formidable member of an expanding Democratic bench, the kind of senator who could end up president someday.It’s tantalizing to consider whether the Georgia senator holds answers to the various major and minor crises looming over the future of the party. Mr. Warnock, like Barack Obama, is a Black politician who has proved he can weave together multiracial coalitions, retaining working-class support in communities of color while attracting some right-leaning voters and independents, many of them white. To finish just ahead of Mr. Walker in November, Mr. Warnock had to win over a sizable number of Georgians who were voting to re-elect the Republican governor, Brian Kemp. Mr. Warnock boasted repeatedly of his bipartisan bona fides — his campaign is still actively courting Kemp voters, even as the governor stumps for Mr. Walker — while retaining enthusiasm from the Democratic base. He did this in part by being a reliable supporter of the Biden policy agenda in Washington, avoiding the posture of needless antagonism that made both Mr. Manchin and Ms. Sinema enemies of the left for much of the past two years.Mr. Warnock enters the final stretch with three times as much cash on hand as Mr. Walker, who is lately trying to fend off a deluge of negative TV ads and allegations of carpetbagging. Once more, America’s fate is bound up in Georgia, and Mr. Warnock’s own political star may yet shine much brighter in the weeks to come.Ross Barkan, a novelist, is a contributor to New York Magazine and The Nation.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

  • in

    Georgia’s Crucial Runoff Is Finally Here

    Dustin Chambers for The New York TimesOn Tuesday, Herschel Walker and Senator Raphael Warnock will face off in their closely watched runoff election in Georgia. Even though Democrats have won control of the Senate, the end of the campaign has been intense.Here’s a look at the race → More

  • in

    Warnock and Walker, at Finish Line in Georgia, Stick to Their Strategies

    ATLANTA — The closely watched rematch between Senator Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker has reached its final hours, capping an intense and turbulent campaign that has prompted debate over issues of race, class and power in a state with a pivotal role in American politics.On Sunday morning at the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Mr. Warnock is a senior pastor, he peppered his sermon with thinly veiled allusions to the election, reminding people multiple times to vote and joking that they had a choice between two candidates whose “last name starts with W.”Mr. Walker on Sunday urged his supporters to vote, on part of what his campaign has been calling an “Evict Warnock Bus Tour.” “If you don’t have a friend, go make a friend and get them out to vote,” he told supporters.More than 1.8 million Georgians have already cast ballots for Tuesday’s runoff, topping early vote records in a contest that will determine whether Mr. Warnock gives Democrats a 51st vote in the Senate, an addition that would offer some procedural benefits. For Republicans, a win by Mr. Walker would reassert the state’s red streak despite a blue surge two years ago.In 2020, energized Democratic voters propelled Mr. Warnock and Jon Ossoff into the Senate, after fierce showdowns with Republican incumbents, swinging the Senate’s balance of power. And for the first time in 28 years, Georgia voted for a Democrat for president.The outcome Tuesday will also provide an early test of the impact of Donald J. Trump’s nascent 2024 presidential campaign on other Republican candidates. Mr. Trump has steered clear of Georgia ahead of the runoff after his 2020 loss there and a disappointing midterm season for Republicans. Earlier this year, his chosen primary challengers to Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger were both firmly rejected.Senator Raphael Warnock at a rally on Saturday in Atlanta. He is looking to mobilize the Black, Asian, Latino and white working-class voters who lifted Democrats in Georgia in 2020.Nicole Craine for The New York TimesAs Mr. Warnock and Mr. Walker crisscrossed Georgia over the weekend to deliver their closing pitches, the candidates largely stuck to the distinct messages and styles that have guided their bids since the November election, when Mr. Warnock edged out Mr. Walker but fell short of the 50 percent threshold, sending the race into a runoff.At energetic rallies filled with hundreds of chanting supporters, Mr. Warnock focused on promoting both Democrats’ policy victories and his willingness to work with Republicans. And he sought to mobilize the Black, Asian, Latino and white working-class voters who two years ago propelled him and Mr. Ossoff to victories.On Sunday, Mr. Warnock began his morning behind the pulpit at Ebenezer Baptist, presiding over a service. Hundreds packed the pews, including longtime parishioners, members of Congress and members of his fraternity, Alpha Phi Alpha. He finished the day with a pair of campaign rallies in Athens, home to the University of Georgia, including one at a student center named for Zell Miller, the last Georgia Democrat to win a Senate seat before 2021.What to Know About the Georgia Senate RunoffCard 1 of 6Another runoff in Georgia. More

  • in

    Brian Kemp’s Interesting Strategy: Stand Up to Trump, Stump for Walker

    It’s not surprising that Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia, fresh off his re-election victory, would take a field trip to the Adventure Outdoors megastore. Shooting ranges, gunsmithing, machetes, tomahawks, ammo, camo, “over 130 yards of gun counters” with more than 18,000 guns in stock — what red-blooded Southern Republican wouldn’t jump at the chance for a holiday-season visit to this Pole Star of Second Amendment vibes nestled in the Atlanta suburbs?That said, some folks might have found it a tad curious to see Mr. Kemp hanging out in the store’s parking lot, hugging and mugging for the cameras with Herschel Walker, the Republican Party’s deeply problematic Senate nominee. The former football star is in a tick-tight runoff with the incumbent, Raphael Warnock, and Mr. Kemp was imploring the crowd to turn out for him in this Tuesday’s vote. “He will go and fight for those values that we believe in here in our state,” the governor insisted.Talk about a postural shift. Throughout his re-election race, Mr. Kemp practiced scrupulous social distancing from his ticketmate. The men did not do joint events. (Adventure Outdoors was their first rally together!) Mr. Kemp did not talk up — or even about — Mr. Walker. When asked about the distance between their campaigns, Mr. Kemp tended to make vague noises about supporting “the entire ticket.”Which, honestly, was the only sensible course of action considering the freak show that has been Mr. Walker’s candidacy. Accusations of domestic abuse? Semi-secret children? Allegations (which he denies) that he paid for abortions for multiple women? Making up stuff about his academic and business ventures? The guy has more baggage than a Kardashian on a round-the-world cruise. No candidate with a sense of self-preservation would want to get close to that hot mess.Matthew Pearson/ WABEBut now! Mr. Kemp is having a moment. Having secured another four years in office — despite being targeted for removal in the primaries by a certain bitter ex-president — he is feeling looser, freer, more inclined to lend a hand to his good buddy Herschel.Way more than a hand, actually. Mr. Kemp put his formidable turnout machine — everything from door knocking to phone banking to microtargeting — at Mr. Walker’s disposal. Or, more precisely, he put it at the disposal of the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell. And Mr. Kemp personally has gone all in. In addition to hitting the trail with Mr. Walker, he has been promoting him in media interviews, was featured in a pro-Walker mailer and cut two ads for him.Whatever happens with Mr. Walker, keep an eye on Mr. Kemp. The 59-year-old Georgia governor is positioning himself to be a major Republican player — one that, unlike so many in his party, is not a complete Trump chump.If Mr. Kemp’s electoral victory over Stacey Abrams was decisive, besting her by more than seven percentage points, his psychological victory over Donald Trump was devastating, in ways you cannot measure in votes. Mr. Trump had targeted Mr. Kemp for defeat this year, after the governor refused to help him subvert the presidential election results in 2020. The former president put a lot of political capital on the line in his crusade against Mr. Kemp, only to get spanked once again in Georgia. The governor’s refusal to bow to Mr. Trump wound up burnishing his reputation across party lines, which served him well in the purplish state. In the general election last month, Mr. Kemp won 200,000 more votes than Mr. Walker did in his race.National Republicans are now desperate for Mr. Kemp to help Mr. Walker win over a chunk of those split-ticket voters. Originally, the governor accepted this mission when it still looked as though control of the Senate might once again rest with Georgia. But even after Democrats secured 50 seats, he was happy to go the extra mile for the team.It’s all upside for Mr. Kemp. No one will seriously blame him if he can’t rescue a candidate as lousy as Mr. Walker, and he wins friends and influence within the party simply by trying. He also gets to wallow in his status as a separate, non-Trumpian power center. After all the abuse he has taken from Mr. Trump, the governor must on some level relish being asked to salvage the former president’s handpicked dud — even as the party made clear it did not want Mr. Trump anywhere near the Peach State this time. And if Mr. Kemp somehow manages to drag Mr. Walker to victory, clawing back one of the two Georgia Senate seats Mr. Trump helped cost the party last year, it will be an ostrich-size feather in his already heavily plumed cap — not to mention a fat thumb in Mr. Trump’s eye.Mr. Kemp clearly has his sights set on the political road ahead. National Republicans were impressed by how thoroughly he decimated his Trump-orchestrated primary challenge in the governor’s race, ultimately stomping his chief opponent, former Senator David Perdue, by more than 50 points. Post-primary, Mr. McConnell hosted Mr. Kemp for a cozy breakfast in the Senate dining room. In early September, Mr. McConnell was a “special guest” at a Kemp fund-raiser in Washington that touted another 16 Republican senators as “featured guests.”Mr. Kemp’s work on behalf of Mr. Walker is opening even more doors, helping him forge connections with officials, operatives and donors well beyond Georgia. All of which will come in handy if, say, Mr. Kemp decides he wants to run for federal office one day.And it sure looks as though he might. Not long before Thanksgiving, he filed the paperwork to form a federal super PAC. Named Hardworking Americans Inc., the organization will help him gain influence — having a pool of political cash tends to raise one’s popularity — and possibly pave his way for a federal campaign.As it happens, Mr. Kemp’s second term ends in 2026, the same year that Jon Ossoff, Georgia’s other Democratic senator, is up for re-election. There is buzz around the state that this would be a logical next step for the governor — and that it is definitely on his mind.Of course, 2026 is four eternities away in political terms. But Mr. Kemp has distinguished himself as his own man, having won on his terms in a party increasingly anxious about the former president’s influence. For those who see Mr. Trump as the G.O.P.’s past, Mr. Kemp may look appealingly like its future.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

  • in

    In Georgia, a Heated Senate Race Stirs Mixed Emotions in Black Voters

    The contest might have been a showcase of Black political power in the Deep South. But many Black voters say Herschel Walker’s turbulent campaign has marred the moment.ATLANTA — The line of voters circled around the East Point Library on a recent Thursday evening, giving Dacia Davis, a 45-year-old human resources coordinator braced against the chill, plenty of time to contemplate the historic significance of the ballot waiting for her inside.Two African American men — Herschel Walker, a Republican, and Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent — are vying for a Senate seat in the Deep South, in a runoff contest, a process designed decades ago to thwart Black candidates. The winner in Tuesday’s election will serve in an institution that has been overwhelmingly white throughout its history: Nearly 2,000 people have served in the U.S. Senate, and only 11 of them have been Black.But a race that may seem like a triumph for Black political power has stirred a complicated mix of emotions for Ms. Davis and many other Black Georgians. Mr. Walker’s troubled candidacy has clouded their pride with suspicions, dismay, offense and even embarrassment.In conversations with more than two dozen Black voters across Georgia, many said they did not see Mr. Walker, who has taken a conciliatory approach to matters of race, as representing the interests of Black people. Far more than a victory for racial representation, they cast the election in terms of now-familiar political stakes: a chance to keep a Republican backed by Donald Trump from gaining power and working to reverse policies they care about.“It is a very historic moment,” said Ms. Davis, a supporter of Mr. Warnock. “But it is sort of like a bittersweet moment.” Sure, two Black men are running for Senate, she added, but many Black voters disagree with how Mr. Walker “views the nation and also other African American people.”Dacia Davis says the Senate race between Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock has been “bittersweet.”Nicole Craine for The New York TimesPolls suggest Ms. Davis’s views are widely held. A CNN poll released on Friday found Mr. Walker winning just 3 percent of Black voters, who make up about one-third of Georgia’s electorate. That is less support than Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, won when he defeated Stacey Abrams in the governor’s race last month, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of Georgia voters.Those numbers do not spell the end of Mr. Walker’s bid. Mr. Warnock led Mr. Walker only narrowly among all voters in the CNN survey. A strong turnout among white Republicans across the state could lift Mr. Walker to victory. Still, Republicans had hoped Mr. Walker would make inroads with Black Georgians. Encouraged by signs that Black voters, particularly Black men, have been softening to Republican messages in recent years, the party has made attempts to speak more directly to Black voters and recruit Black candidates. Mr. Walker looked to some like the best possible shot of taking back a seat Mr. Warnock won in a stunning Democratic surge just two years ago.It became a matchup layered with meaning: Mr. Walker and Mr. Warnock both earned acclaim by succeeding in fields central to Southern Black culture. They represent what were, for the longest time, two of the few paths for Black men to gain social status and financial security in America: religion and athletics. Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.Senator Warnock is the pastor of Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, preaching from the same pulpit Martin Luther King Jr. once occupied.In the 1980s, Mr. Walker led the University of Georgia football team to a national championship and won the Heisman Trophy before embarking on a professional football career.Mr. Walker, center, with supporters in Peachtree City, Ga., last month.Nicole Craine for The New York TimesBut skepticism of Mr. Walker — and the motives of those, including Mr. Trump, who backed his bid — seemed to override the power of football fandom, even in Georgia.What to Know About Georgia’s Senate RunoffCard 1 of 6Another runoff in Georgia. More

  • in

    These Georgia Precincts Were Red. Then Blue. Now They Are Purple.

    The Georgia voters who delivered Mr. Kemp a comfortable victory over his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, in November did not show the same enthusiasm for Mr. Walker. Neither Mr. Walker nor Mr. Warnock cleared the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright, sending voters to the polls again for a runoff on Tuesday. Mr. Walker […] More

  • in

    Teen Shot in Leg While Canvassing for Raphael Warnock in Georgia

    The police in Savannah, Ga., said there was no indication that the shooting was politically motivated.A 15-year-old boy who was campaigning for Senator Raphael Warnock was shot in the leg through the door of a home in Savannah, Ga., on Thursday afternoon, the authorities said.It was unclear why the man shot the boy. The police said in a statement on Friday that the shooting was under investigation, adding, “At this point, there is no indication the shooting was politically motivated.”The boy, whose name was not released, was shot when the man fired a shot through the closed door of the home as the boy stood outside the door, the police said. The boy was taken to a hospital with injuries that were not life-threatening, the police said.The man, Jimmy Paiz, 43, was charged with aggravated assault and aggravated battery and taken to the Chatham County Jail. Bond was set at $5,700. It was unclear on Friday whether Mr. Paiz had a lawyer.Images of the home show that the front door has several windows. It was unclear whether Mr. Paiz could see the boy through the door, or whether the boy had identified himself as a canvasser with the Warnock campaign before the shot was fired.The shooting came as Mr. Warnock, a Democrat, faces Herschel Walker, a Republican and former football star, in a runoff election on Tuesday. Mr. Warnock beat Mr. Walker by about 37,000 votes in the November general election, but he fell shy of the 50 percent threshold needed to win the Georgia Senate seat.“I am saddened to learn about this incident,” Mr. Warnock said in a statement on Friday. “I am praying for the victim and their family and wish them a full recovery.”Public records indicated that Mr. Paiz has lived at the residence for several years, is an actively registered voter and did not have a criminal history. More