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      East Texas, Already Soaked, Prepares for a ‘Nightmare Scenario’ of More Rain

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      Some places in Texas have seen a year’s worth of rainfall since January.In a densely forested region of East Texas called the Piney Woods, rivers are still in moderate to major flood stage after recent weeks of heavy rainfall. Now, the region is preparing for what forecasters are calling a “nightmare scenario” with another round of excessive rain, which could lead to more considerable flooding on Thursday into Friday morning.“It’s just an insane amount of rain,” said Jimmy Fowler, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Houston, “that just seems to keep falling over the same area.”This week’s forecast calls for an additional three to five inches of rain in the same part of Texas, southeast of Dallas and northeast of Houston, where “considerable rainfall amounts have occurred this month,” forecasters said.“Over the last 14 days, portions of eastern Texas have received five to 10 inches of rain, with localized amounts as high as 15 to 20 inches,” Marc Chenard, a senior forecaster with the Weather Prediction Center, an arm of the National Weather Service, said Tuesday afternoon. “This is 400 to 600 percent the normal rain for this two-week period.”

      Where streams and rivers flooded

      Minor

      Moderate

      Major

      Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
      Notes:

       Minor flooding is defined as causing minimal or no property damage.
      Moderate flooding
      could lead to inundation of structures and roads, causing some evacuations.
      Major flooding could lead to extensive inundation of structures and roads, causing
      significant evacuations.
      By Bea Malsky

      This week, some isolated areas could see six to 10 more inches, Mr. Chenard added. And it will fall on saturated ground. Since January, some towns, like Huntsville, Texas, have already exceeded the 51 inches of rainfall they would typically receive in an entire year.While some of the river gauges that are in flood stage now are still short of the record-high levels seen during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the past few weeks have been a compounding onslaught of heavy rainfall, especially across the Piney Woods region, Mr. Fowler said.Because the ground is so saturated, Mr. Fowler said, it would most likely only take a storm producing one to three inches of rain in an hour to cause flash flooding.Wednesday is supposed to be relatively dry, but it won’t be enough time to dry out the ground before Thursday’s rain. If anything, the water that evaporates will just add to the moisture in the air, helping fuel the rainfall on Thursday.Forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center warned that if the forecast computer weather models continued to show the “bullseye” of excessive rain lingering over the already flooded region, then they would most likely increase the probability of flash flooding to a higher level.Confidence is high among forecasters that rain will drench the region again Thursday. However, there were a few outliers in the computer models Wednesday that showed the rain farther north, which would be good news for the waterlogged Piney Woods.The flood concern will move east across the South as the multiple waves of storms move over Louisiana from Thursday into Friday. By the start of the weekend, East Texas may begin to dry out, but rounds of rain will pound Southern Mississippi and Alabama, which have also been stuck in a similar rainy pattern recently. More

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      California Highway 1 Collapse Leaves 2,000 Tourists Stranded

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      Many stayed in temporary shelters, hotels and campgrounds overnight on Saturday, while some slept in their cars. A portion of scenic Highway 1 in the Big Sur area of California collapsed Saturday stranding about 2,000 motorists, mostly tourists, overnight.Officials with the California Department of Transportation said on Sunday that a section of the southbound highway located in the Central Coast, would remain closed to the public while crews worked on the affected areas. Large chunks of the road fell into the ocean. The highway, also known as the Pacific Coast Highway, features stretches of rocky cliffs, lush mountains, panoramic beaches and coastal redwood forests.There were no reported injuries. Caltrans, the agency, did not give an estimate of when it expected to fully reopen the highway. Officials did not say what led to the collapse, but torrential rain battered the area near Rocky Creek Bridge, which is about 17 miles south of Monterey. Kevin Drabinski, a spokesman for Caltrans, said the officials determined that the damage was severe enough to close the highway for motorists Saturday afternoon.“Caltrans became aware that we had lost portion of the southbound lane and that necessitated a full closure of Highway 1,” Mr. Drabinski said. We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      A River Awakens, Bringing Green Magic to a Desert Town

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      After a stunning week of rain, the Todd River in Alice Springs flows once again, bringing a beleaguered community togetherThe Australia Letter is a weekly newsletter from our Australia bureau. Sign up to get it by email.Whenever there’s rain in the forecast for the desert town of Mparntwe, otherwise known as Alice Springs, the same question usually surfaces: “Do you think the Todd will flow?”This week, the answer was yes. The normally dry Todd River swelled with water on the back of a week’s worth of rain that dropped 184 mm (about 7.2 inches) from the skies after months of unrelenting heat, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. The rain picked up piles of debris, washed out roads and turned the usually pastel red-yellow landscape of the area in central Australia into a rich tapestry of brown-green.Local officials issued severe flood warnings, but in a region usually defined by arid heat, people were excited — even more so when the water started to rise. People swarmed the Todd’s banks, reveling in the majestic sight of a river in motion.It’s something people in this part of the world get to see only a few times a year. Although the land is never completely dry — a rich groundwater table makes itself known through the rows of mature river red gum trees that line the banks — aboveground flows of any significance are contingent on big rain.John Wischusen, a hydrogeologist based in Alice Springs, said that the usual formula for determining whether the Todd would flow was 40 millimeters of rain at a rate of 50 millimeters per hour. That’s a heavy downpour typical of a summer thunderstorm, but he added that consecutive days of wet weather at a lower intensity also would (and this week, did) tip the scales.“It’s like a roof and a water tank,” said Mr. Wischusen, explaining how the high concentration of Precambrian rocks (including gneiss and granite) in and around Alice Springs encouraged water runoff. “But the ground underneath has to be wet up to a certain level before it can flow past. That’s why you need a certain amount of rain and or intensity to get water to flow over the ground and into the river channels and through town.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Why the Solar Eclipse Will Not Leave People Without Power

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      Grid managers say they are well prepared to handle a sharp drop in the energy produced by solar panels as the eclipse darkens the sky in North America on April 8.When the sky darkens during next month’s solar eclipse, electricity production in some parts of the country will drop so sharply that it could theoretically leave tens of millions of homes in the dark. In practice, hardly anyone will notice a sudden loss of energy.Electric utilities say they expect to see significant decreases in solar power production during the eclipse but have already lined up alternate sources of electricity, including large battery installations and natural gas power plants. Homeowners who rely on rooftop solar panels should also experience no loss of electricity because home batteries or the electric grid will kick in automatically as needed.At 12:10 p.m. on April 8, the solar eclipse will begin over southwestern Texas, the regional electrical system perhaps most affected by the event, and last three hours.“I don’t think anything is as predictable as an eclipse,” said Pedro Pizarro, president and chief of executive of Edison International, a California power company, and the chairman of the Edison Electric Institute, a utility trade organization. “You can prepare.”This year’s solar eclipse will darken the sky as it passes over a swath of Mexico, the United States and Canada. That leaves solar energy systems — one of the nation’s fastest growing sources of electricity — vulnerable.Although solar power produces only when the sun shines, forecasters can generally predict pretty well how much electricity panels will produce on any given day depending on the weather. That helps utility and grid managers make sure they have other sources of energy available to meet consumer needs.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Blizzard Is Forecast to Bring ‘Life-Threatening’ Conditions to California

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      For the second year in a row, the Greater Lake Tahoe area is expected to begin March buried in deep, powdery, windswept snow.A rare warning for “life-threatening blizzard conditions” is in effect for the mountains of the Sierra, including Lake Tahoe, for a storm that could bring a three feet of snow or more from Thursday through Sunday, according to forecasters.Blizzard warnings are reserved for the worst snow storms with whiteout conditions that could last hours or, in this case, days, with the weather likely making travel in the region treacherous. The National Weather Service in Reno, Nev., has only issued eight blizzard warnings since 2002. The last warning in the Tahoe area was almost exactly a year ago: Feb. 27, 2023.During last year’s storm, two feet of snow fell in less than 24 hours, which, combined with earlier snows, made it challenging to distinguish houses from snow banks. Winds up to 50 miles per hour combined with the light snow made it difficult to see things only feet away.

      Forecast for severe winter weather for Thursday More

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      Storm Updates: California Braces for Heavy Rains and Flooding

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      Millions of people in California were under a flood watch as an atmospheric river was expected to engulf much of the state in heavy rains on Sunday, forecasters said.The West Coast braced for more flooding on Sunday as heavy rains from an atmospheric river were forecast to spread over California starting on Sunday, in the latest series of storms to pound the state this month.A milder storm moved over California’s northern and central coast on Saturday night, kicking off the period of rain for the nation’s most populous state. Forecasters said it was a precursor to a more powerful system on Sunday that was expected to bring the bulk of the precipitation.“Sunday night and Monday alone, we’re looking at areas three to six inches of rain down the coast south of the Bay Area to Santa Barbara,” said Brian Hurley, a senior meteorologist at the National Weather Service.More than 37 million people nationwide were under a flood watch on Sunday. Most were in California, where the watch was in effect through Wednesday, according to the Weather Service.Atmospheric river is the name given to the narrow bands of moisture blown over the West Coast by winds in the Pacific. They are the cause of California’s heaviest rains and floods.“The weather conditions will be drastically different from Sunday morning to Sunday night,” the Weather Service said on Sunday. “A strong storm will arrive today. Rain will begin around midday and will be heavy through the night. Moderate to major impacts from this storm will last into Monday with heavy rain, strong winds, high surf, thunderstorms and flooding potential.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Was Boston’s Snow Forecast a Bust? Depends on Whom You Ask.

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      The quick-moving winter storm sweeping across the Northeast was once poised to blanket the Boston area with up to a foot of snow but will now push farther south than expected, cutting snowfall totals in the region by more than half than expected earlier, according to the latest estimates.“Snow lovers may be very upset that snow totals have decreased because the system has moved farther south,” Torry Dooley, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Boston said by phone early Tuesday. “But other folks that are maybe not as into the snow may be rejoicing this morning that the snow totals have come down.”No matter where weather watchers land on snow debate, Mr. Dooley emphasized that the weather is fickle and predictions are just that — predictions.“Our weather is a very fluid thing,” Mr. Dooley said. “So the atmosphere is very fluid. Forecasts do evolve with better data.”Officials in Boston kept a close eye on the storm and ultimately closed schools on Tuesday. Nearby school systems, like in Plymouth and Salem, made the same decision.Mr. Dooley said Weather Service meteorologists do not discuss school closing decisions with officials and that superintendents make those judgment calls.On Monday afternoon, meteorologists began receiving newer data showing the storm’s track shifting farther and farther south.While snowfall expectations for the Boston region have significantly diminished since the original forecast, southern Massachusetts can still expect several inches through Tuesday afternoon.Still, the Boston area will not be completely unaffected. Light rain showers were expected to transition to snow before 9 a.m.“Once that happens, we’ll have some moderate snowfall,” Mr. Dooley said. “Areas around Boston can expect, generally four to six inches of snow, throughout today.” More

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      Winter Storm Forecast: Parts of the Northeast Could Get a Foot of Snow

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      The heaviest snow is expected in parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and southern New England starting on Monday into Tuesday, forecasters said.A winter storm is expected to move through the Northeast starting on Monday and lasting into Tuesday, bringing up to a foot of snow in some areas stretching from central Pennsylvania to the Catskills and Hudson Valley in New York, forecasters said.As of Saturday, the storm was over the Southern Plains in the southwestern United States, but over the next couple of days it will work its way east and then northeast.The heaviest snow is expected from northern Pennsylvania, far northwestern New Jersey and southern New York into interior southern New England, where locally a foot or more of snow could fall, said Bill Deger, a senior meteorologist for AccuWeather.In these areas, snowfall rates could exceed an inch an hour for a time, he said.The heaviest snowfalls will most likely be north of New York City, said Frank Pereira, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center.Forecasts on Saturday called for up to a foot of snow from central Pennsylvania through the Catskills and Hudson Valley in New York and then across portions of southern New England, Connecticut and Massachusetts and through the metropolitan Boston area.The precipitation is expected to start as rain on Monday night in New York City and then turn to snow late on Tuesday morning, said David Stark, a meteorologist for the Weather Service office in New York. He said he did not expect high snow totals but added that it was too early to tell.The rain-to-snow mix can be dangerous for drivers, Mr. Deger said.“Rain falling before snow makes it very difficult for municipalities to prepare roads for the wintry weather,” he noted, “as any pretreatment can be washed away before temperatures fall below freezing and snow starts to accumulate.”Drivers should anticipate a difficult commute on Tuesday in eastern Pennsylvania through the New York City area and into the Hudson Valley and southern New England, where visibility could be reduced by locally heavy snow, Mr. Deger said.During the high tide on Tuesday in the early afternoon, “there might be pockets of minor, maybe even moderate, coastal flooding along the East Coast,” said Rob Megnia, a meteorologist for the Weather Service office in Boston. “People should be aware of that even if they’re not expecting a lot of snow.”Mr. Pereira of the Weather Prediction Center said the storm would be “fairly fast-moving.”“As we get into Tuesday evening into the overnight, the system is going to be out into the open Atlantic waters,” he said, adding that the storm should be over by Wednesday morning. More