William Barr

The United States is hardly an autocracy; it might be better described as a flawed democracy. Yet its president, Donald Trump, behaves a lot like an autocrat – and it’s worth remembering, as the election looms, that autocratic leaders do not like to give up their power.
Obviously, few autocrats are willing to relinquish the benefits that accompany political office. But there is another, more important, reason they often try to retain power at almost any cost, even after losing elections or completing their terms. After two decades of researching and writing about autocratic politics in the Middle East, I call this the autocrat’s dilemma: losing power can expose autocrats to accountability, prosecution and potential jail time. As a result, autocrats are often willing to break laws, rig elections, create chaos and even use violence to retain power.
If Trump loses the election, there may be calls to investigate and prosecute him for possible crimes involving obstruction of justice, violating the emolument clause of the constitution, and/or tax fraud, among others. Citizen Trump would face investigation without the luxury of “executive privilege” or the legal chicanery of the attorney general, William Barr, who has acted more like Trump’s personal lawyer than the nation’s top law enforcement official, to protect him. Accordingly, Trump has even more reason to lie, cheat and sow discord in order to retain office, because losing the White House could land him in court or even behind bars.
Although special prosecutor Robert Mueller did not produce a smoking gun proving Trump conspired with Russia in the 2016 election, he clearly stated that the investigation did not exonerate Trump of wrongdoing. After the investigation, over a thousand former federal prosecutors from both parties signed a letter stating that Trump’s conduct as described in the investigation would warrant “multiple felony charges for obstruction of justice” were it not for the Office of Legal Counsel’s policy of not indicting a sitting president.
More recent criticisms of Mueller from top aides within the investigation allege Mueller did not go far enough in exposing collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. At the very least, there is a strong case that Trump obstructed the investigation. After he leaves office there will be vocal calls to get to the bottom of Russian election interference, his campaign’s alleged collusion, and to hold the former president accountable for obstruction of justice. The outcome could very well be a subpoena for the ex-president or even an indictment.
Allegations of campaign finance violations related to the Stormy Daniels affair and financial irregularities regarding the president’s inauguration could also expose Trump to legal troubles. But perhaps the most likely reason Trump will end up in court after leaving office concerns his taxes. Trump’s recently revealed tax filings expose a series of ethically dubious and possibly illegal activities. If he loses in November, citizen Trump will likely face increasing pressure from agencies such as the IRS and the New York state attorney general’s office.
Trump’s tax filings are brimming with shady dealings. In addition to not paying federal income tax in 10 of the 15 years preceding his election – and paying a mere $750 a year in 2016 and 2017 – Trump received a $72.9m refund from the IRS in 2010 after claiming more than a billion dollars in earlier losses. The massive refund is the subject of an ongoing IRS audit; an adverse outcome could force Trump to return the money, which, with penalties and interest, might total more than $100m.
Trump’s tax filings include other dubious and possibly illegal practices. He paid his daughter Ivanka over $700,000 in “consulting fees” while she was a salaried employee of the Trump Organization. Such high-dollar “business expenses” not only benefited Ivanka, they reduced Trump’s own tax liability.
An even bigger deduction concerns Trump’s Seven Springs estate an hour’s drive from New York. In addition to claiming a $21m tax deduction for not developing most of the 230-acre property (known as a conservation easement), Trump claimed the estate was an investment and not a personal residence, allowing him to deduct more than $2m in property taxes as business expenses. Yet Trump’s sons Eric and Donald Jr lived on the compound and the Trump Organization’s official webpage describes it as “a retreat for the Trump family”.

Trump’s personal debt raises different sorts of questions about potential national security vulnerabilities that arise from a sitting president owing hundreds of millions of dollars to creditors. And the massive debts are another reason why Trump desperately wants to remain in the White House. The president owes over $300m in personally backed loans to Deutsche Bank, Ladder Capital and possibly other creditors, which mature in the next four years. If he were unable to pay back or refinance the loans, Deutsche Bank and Ladder could, although it’s unlikely, take legal action against him. As long as he remains president, however, neither lender would probably call the loans and risk forcing a sitting president into personal bankruptcy.
Trump desperately wants to retain the presidency – not to “keep America Great” but to protect himself from future prosecution. His embrace of white supremacists and his calls to supporters to monitor polling places on election day (and intimidate Biden voters in the process) is an attempt to engineer an election victory through force. And by disputing the election’s integrity he is inciting post-election violence: another tactic with the same intended goal.
When past presidents have lost re-election, they often return to their home states to plan presidential libraries, establish philanthropic foundations and give well-compensated corporate speeches. Trump’s post-presidency could look very different. This vote is not simply about an incumbent president standing for re-election: it is about two starkly different futures for Donald Trump.
Samer S Shehata is an associate professor of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma More