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    Times/Siena College Polls: Methodology and How We Conducted Them

    The Times/Siena College battleground polls released on Sunday and Monday were conducted over the past week in six swing states that are likely to decide the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Five of the states were won by Donald J. Trump in 2016 and then flipped by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. Nevada, which has always been a close state, came down to less than one percentage point in the 2022 U.S. Senate election.These states also contain some of the coalitions that will be crucial next fall: younger, more diverse voters in states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada; and white working-class voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who helped swing the election to Trump in 2016, and were central to Mr. Biden’s 2020 victory. They also provide some geographic diversity.We interviewed 600 respondents in each state to ensure we had a large enough sample to speak to specific subgroups of voters within these states, including age, race and ethnicity, income, education level, and party affiliation. Taken together, these 3,600 respondents represent our largest sample size of swing state voters to date. This also includes more than 700 undecided voters, a group that will be even more consequential within these crucial states.This is not the first time we have focused on swing states this early in an election cycle. In 2019, the poll explored a similar set of states, reflecting the battleground at the time. The political moment was slightly different, with Democrats in the thick of a nominating contest that split the party between liberals like Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and a moderate in Mr. Biden — and Mr. Trump was the incumbent president to beat.However, the goals of that poll were similar to this one. As Americans in key states across the political spectrum weigh their options, these polls shed light on the issues driving the election and voters’ appetites for the leading candidates. More

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    Trump Indictments Haven’t Sunk His Campaign, but a Conviction Might

    For Donald J. Trump, a new set of New York Times/Siena College polls captures a stunning, seemingly contradictory picture.His 91 felony charges in four different jurisdictions have not significantly hurt him among voters in battleground states. Yet he remains weaker than at least one of his Republican rivals, and if he’s convicted and sentenced in any of his cases, some voters appear ready to turn on him — to the point where he could lose the 2024 election.Mr. Trump leads President Biden in five key battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, according to the Times/Siena polls. He has eaten significantly into Mr. Biden’s advantages among younger, Black and Hispanic voters, many of whom retain positive views of the policies Mr. Trump enacted as president. And Mr. Trump appears to have room to grow, as more voters say they are open to supporting the former president than they are to backing Mr. Biden, with large shares of voters saying they trust Mr. Trump on the economy and national security. More

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    Trump fake elector scheme: where do seven states’ investigations stand?

    As Donald Trump faces criminal charges in multiple cases across the country, several states are still investigating a scheme created by Trump allies and boosted by Trump himself to cast fake electoral votes for the Republican candidate for the 2020 election.As part of the US electoral college system, states cast a set number of votes for the candidate who wins the popular vote in their state, the winner of which then takes the presidency. Seven states that the former president lost saw slates of fake GOP electors falsely claim Trump had won their electoral votes. These fake electors included high-profile Republicans, such as sitting officeholders and state party leaders.Two prosecutors, in Michigan and Georgia, have already filed charges against fake electors. Others have confirmed investigations but provided few details. One state prosecutor said local laws did not address this kind of crime, which is unprecedented.Kenneth Chesebro, a Trump campaign legal adviser and the supposed mastermind of the fake electors scheme, pleaded guilty in Georgia over his role in subverting the election. Chesebro allegedly created the plan in a secret memo based on Wisconsin’s electoral vote.At the federal level, the special counsel Jack Smith and his team brought charges against Trump and his allies over their attempts to overturn the 2020 election results, which include the fake elector scheme. Several states have confirmed they are cooperating with Smith’s investigation, and news reports have indicated Smith offered limited immunity to some fake electors for their testimony.Since the scheme had no precedent, some states and experts have struggled to figure out which laws may have been broken, and whether the charges should be state or federal. In some states, the fake electors also face civil lawsuits. Here’s where they stand.ArizonaThe former Arizona attorney general Mark Brnovich, a Republican, never publicly confirmed any investigation into the state’s fake electors, which included high-profile far-right figures such as the state senator Jake Hoffman and the former Arizona GOP chair Kelli Ward. The state actually saw two separate sets of fake electors.His successor, the Democrat Kris Mayes, told the Guardian earlier this year that her office is investigating the fake electors, but has not provided any details of the investigation so far. On a recent Arizona Republic podcast episode, Mayes said she could not say much about the contours of the investigation, but that her office was taking it “very seriously” and that it was a “very important investigation”.While the cases in Michigan and Georgia are much further along, she noted that their prosecutors have been in place much longer than she has. Mayes took office in January 2023.GeorgiaThree fake electors in Georgia were charged as part of a broader case against Trump and his allies over election subversion attempts.The Fulton county district attorney, Fani Willis, brought charges against the former Georgia Republican party chairman David Shafer, the state senator Shawn Still and the activist Cathy Latham, three of the 16 fake electors from that state. They face various charges, including forgery, impersonating a public officer and attempting to file false documents.Several of the others who signed on as false electors for Trump struck immunity deals or plea agreements with prosecutors.The three fake electors charged have pleaded not guilty. Their attorneys argued in September that they were not fake electors, but instead “contingent” electors who could be used should the courts overturn Biden’s win, the Associated Press reported. The three are trying to get their case moved from state court in Georgia to a federal court, arguing they were acting as federal officers who were keeping an avenue open for Trump depending on what happened in the courts.Sidney Powell, who was charged in the broader case, pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate with the prosecution. The unexpected move netted Powell six years of probation and some fines and marks a major shift in the Georgia case for Trump and his allies. Chesebro, on the day jury selection for his trial was set to begin, pleaded guilty to a felony charge of conspiracy to commit filing false documents and probably will serve five years’ probation.MichiganThe Democratic attorney general Dana Nessel charged 16 Michiganders who participated as fake electors with eight felonies each, including multiple forgery charges, for their roles in the scheme. Those charged include party activists, candidates for office and state and local party officials.Attempts by two defendants to get the charges dismissed because of Nessel’s comments about how the electors were “brainwashed” were unsuccessful. The 16 people charged pleaded not guilty, and probable cause hearings are set for this month.This week, one of Michigan’s fake electors saw his charges dropped as part of a deal with the state’s attorney general. James Renner, a Republican who falsely signed that Trump had won, agreed to “full cooperation, truthful testimony and production of any and all relevant documents” in exchange for the dropped charges, filings from the attorney general’s office, obtained by NBC News, show. This includes information about how he was asked to become part of the fake slate and the circumstances of meetings among those involved in the scheme.NevadaNevada’s top prosecutor has said his office would not bring charges against the six people who signed on as fake electors there in 2020. The state’s Democratic attorney general, Aaron Ford, said current state laws did not address this kind of situation, “to the dismay of some, and I’m sure, to the delight of others”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Democratic state senator Skip Daly attempted to solve that problem, and the state legislature passed a bill that would have made it a felony for people to serve as false electors, punishable by up to 10 years in prison. Ford had endorsed the bill.But the Republican governor, Joe Lombardo, vetoed the bill, saying the penalties were too harsh, though he said he believed those who undermine elections should face “strict punishments”.New MexicoThe former New Mexico attorney general Hector Balderas started an investigation into the five Republicans who signed as false electors there, then referred the matter to federal prosecutors, according to Source New Mexico.The office of the current attorney general, Raúl Torrez, confirmed there was an active state investigation into the fake electors to see if they violated state law, but details about the case have been scant. Torrez’s office said it would work with Jack Smith to get any evidence related to a state inquiry, according to KOAT Action News.Like Pennsylvania, the fake electors in New Mexico included a caveat in their documents that could help them, should charges be filed. They wrote that they signed the documents “on the understanding that it might be later determined that we are the duly elected and qualified electors”.PennsylvaniaThe 20 fake electors in Pennsylvania are unlikely to face any criminal charges because of how they worded the documents they signed. The documents say the false electoral votes would only be considered valid if the courts deemed the slate to be the “duly elected and qualified electors” for Pennsylvania.Governor Josh Shapiro, then the state’s Democratic attorney general, said the hedged language would spare the false electors from a criminal investigation by his office. His successor as attorney general, Michelle Henry, told Votebeat that the office’s position remained that charges were not warranted.“Though their rhetoric and policy were intentionally misleading and purposefully damaging to our democracy, based on our initial review, our office does not believe this meets the legal standards for forgery,” Shapiro said in 2022.WisconsinThe Democratic attorney general, Josh Kaul, has not said whether his office is investigating the state’s 10 fake electors for potential state law violations, though a civil lawsuit against the alternate slate is moving forward. Kaul has said he supports the federal investigation and that he expects to see “further developments” in that case.Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, said in August he wanted to see the Wisconsin fake electors “held accountable” via prosecution.“What those ten fake electors did was wrong,” Evers wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “People have to be held accountable for that, and I hope to hell somebody does.”Federal prosecutors, in the Trump indictment, said the fake electors scheme started in Wisconsin with the attorney Kenneth Chesebro, who suggested electors meet there to sign on to a slate in case Trump’s team won in the courts. More

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    Dreamers face fresh blow in long fight to stay: ‘They view us as second class’

    The Texas federal judge Andrew Hanen found the revised Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Program (Daca) policy, which shields thousands of immigrants brought to the US as children, illegal last week – after a five-year legal battle about the program’s existence that has left many Daca recipients in limbo about their future in America.For one educator and activist, Alondra Garcia, the ruling is another blow in the long fight for a permanent solution for many like her to be seen in the country they have called home for years.“My reaction [to the ruling] is one I have felt since the first attacks on Daca,” Garcia, a Daca and U-visa recipient who has lived in the US for more than two decades, said. “Fear, uncertainty, sadness, anger – a mix of emotions.”Since she was three, Garcia has only known America – Milwaukee, Wisconsin, specifically.In October 1999, along with her mother and younger sister, she arrived from Morelia, Mexico, on a temporary visiting visa and never returned, putting them in an illegal status. Thirteen years later, on 15 June 2012, executive actions by the then president, Barack Obama, provided deportation relief for undocumented immigrants who came illegally to America as children through Daca. Garcia applied for and received the status two years later, in 2014.That law has since granted relief to more than 600,000 undocumented young adults. It has allowed them to live fuller, richer lives where they can rent or buy homes, work and attend school. Some have become more active in their communities, more productive at work, and better educated, while others have tried to enlist in the nation’s military.“We belong here and need more recognition,” Garcia said, adding that though the status had made it possible for many like her to “belong”, there was more work to be done because the Daca bill remains embattled with political maneuvering.Hanen wrote in his ruling: “While sympathetic to the predicament of Daca recipients and their families, this court has expressed its concerns about the legality of the program for some time … The executive branch cannot usurp the power bestowed on Congress by the constitution – even to fill a void.”In response, the Biden administration said in a statement that it was “deeply disappointed”.“Hundreds of thousands of Daca recipients have been able to live and work lawfully in our country without fear of deportation,” the statement said. “We have long maintained, we disagree with the district court’s conclusion that Daca is unlawful, and will continue to defend this critical policy from legal challenges.”Hanen’s decision allows for existing Dreamers, as Daca recipients are interchangeably called, to keep and renew their status. However, no new applications are permitted.“Dreamers continue facing legal battles because of politicians who don’t see the contributions we make in society,” Garcia said. “They view us as second class. They continue to use Dreamers as a scapegoat to defer attention from the real issue; that the immigration system is broken. Politicians, specifically Republicans, do not want to invest time and money on comprehensive immigration reform because that would mean their chance of staying in office would be jeopardized.”Kica Matos, the president of the National Immigration Law Center, agreed that though the policy had been transformative, Daca recipients and immigrant youth were still treated as a “political football … forcing them to endure excruciating uncertainty”.While acknowledging that the case “will almost certainly be appealed to the fifth circuit and potentially to the US supreme court,” Matos called for an end to the government’s reluctance to recognize Dreamers and a bipartisan permanent legislative solution.Congress has the power to provide such remedies to recipients, but “its repeated failure to do so comes down to political will”, she said. “In poll after poll, Americans across the political spectrum overwhelmingly support a pathway to citizenship for immigrant youth. And yet, a loud minority has repeatedly derailed good-faith efforts to get it done so they can keep leverage and advance an extremist agenda. That comes at great cost to all of us.”That cost can be seen in America’s economy.For example, in Garcia’s home state of Wisconsin – residence for more than 70,000 undocumented people, of which 8,000 are Daca recipients – Dreamers play a vital role in the state’s economy. Like any other citizen they pay taxes – $48m in local, state and federal deductions. Their contribution is so considerable that the state would lose $427m in GDP annually without them.One of the first things Garcia did in 2014 when she was granted Daca status was get her work permit. She said it made her feel like her “American friends” and “allowed me to work and start saving up for college”.Mo Kantner, American Immigration Council’s senior director of policy and research, told the Guardian: “Daca recipients have been contributing to the US economy for years, filling workforce shortages and starting businesses.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“In 2019 alone, the Daca-eligible population earned $26.4bn and paid $5.8bn in federal, state and local taxes,” she said. “There are over 46,000 Daca-eligible entrepreneurs innovating our industries and creating even more local jobs. A solution for Dreamers will strengthen both our community and our economy.”The president and CEO of the National Immigration Forum, Jennie Murray, added that Dreamers were “deeply rooted members of our communities – at our churches, our workplaces and our schools.“Nearly 1 million Dreamers have been standing shoulder-to-shoulder with native-born Americans and working in essential industries aiding in the response to and recovery from Covid-19,” she said. “Daca recipients have been able to work legally in the US since 2012. In the midst of labor shortages in key industries, we can’t afford to risk losing hundreds of thousands of legal workers.”Advocates like Murray, Kantner and Matos, who have long touted the benefits for “Dacamented” immigrants, also acknowledge some of the limitations this demographic faces.Dreamers, who notably have much narrower higher education and employment options, account for more than 400,000 of the student population at higher education institutions. In some states, they bear a financial burden substantially higher for them than other students.Wisconsin, for example, is one of five states in America that prohibits Daca recipients from receiving in-state tuition and financial aid – all because they lack a social security number.“I didn’t know that to go to college, you need a social security to apply for Fafsa [Free Application for Federal Student Aid],” Garcia said. And though some schools offer privately financed scholarship funds for Dreamers, “the system”, the 26-year-old said, continues to deny thousands of students access to financial resources for an affordable college education solely based on their immigration status.This was a setback for Garcia when it was time to apply to college.After months of dead-end research with some of her top college choices – some out of state – not accepting of or providing aid for Daca recipients, she decided on Cardinal Stritch University, a private college in northern Wisconsin. Not being able to qualify for any financial aid to foot the $33,000 yearly tuition, Garcia said she worked three part-time jobs “on top of studying, doing homework and being a [financial] support system to my family, because my sister was going to college too. So it was, like, a lot of pressure.”This was a similar undertaking her father underwent to keep a roof over their heads, “working three jobs and still making sure to take us to school [when we were in grade school]”, she recalled. “Education is everything to him.”Since graduating in 2019, Garcia has been a second-grade bilingual teacher.Being a Daca recipient “has taught me that no matter what your status is, you can make something out of it”, Garcia said. “It was hard to navigate higher education opportunities … yet, I made it happen because no matter how limited you are, you can get around it.”Now on the frontlines of the Dreamer movement, Garcia has regularly organized grassroots events with the immigrant advocacy group Wisconsin’s Voces de la Frontera/Voces de la Frontera Action. And despite the many setbacks in the fight for a permanent solution for Dreamers and immigrant youths, Garcia’s focus remains unwavering.“[My family] is as American as any other family,” she said before adding how “limited” this legal challenge has made her feel. “It’s something that I can’t change – just myself. This has to come from the community being vocal and the people we vote into office.” More

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    Wisconsin Republicans Vote to Oust Top Elections Official

    Meagan Wolfe, with help from the Democratic governor, is suing to keep her post, after years of criticism propelled by Donald Trump’s 2020 election attacks.Republicans in the Wisconsin Senate voted on Thursday to remove the state’s elections chief, escalating a fight over who can determine the leader of a group that will supervise the elections next year in the battleground state.Meagan Wolfe, who has served as the nonpartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission administrator since she was appointed in 2018 and confirmed unanimously by the State Senate in 2019, is suing to keep her post and plans to continue in the role while the issue plays out in the courts. Democrats in the state have sharply criticized the decision, saying that it is not within the Legislature’s power to remove an elections administrator.“It’s unfortunate that political pressures have forced a group of our lawmakers to embrace unfounded rumors about my leadership, my role in the commission and our system of elections,” Ms. Wolfe said at a news conference on Thursday afternoon. “I’ve said it multiple times, and I’ll say it again: Elections in Wisconsin are run with integrity. They are fair, and they are accurate.”Ms. Wolfe, alongside the Wisconsin Elections Commission, subsequently sued three top Republicans in the State Senate — Devin LeMahieu, Robin Vos and Chris Kapenga. She is being represented by the state’s attorney general, who was directed by Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, to “provide immediate representation” for her after the vote.“Wisconsin Republicans’ attempt to illegally fire Wisconsin’s elections administrator without cause today shows they are continuing to escalate efforts to sow distrust and disinformation about our elections,” Mr. Evers wrote in a statement.Chris Kapenga, right, is one of three top Republicans in the State Senate being sued by Ms. Wolfe.Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, via Associated PressMs. Wolfe faced a battle over her reappointment this summer after years of being subjected to right-wing attacks, instigated by former President Donald J. Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election. He lost Wisconsin by nearly 21,000 votes, and there is no evidence that the state experienced widespread election fraud, as Mr. Trump and his allies have suggested despite numerous audits, recounts and lawsuits.She received unanimous support from the state’s six election commissioners, three of whom were Republican appointees, who in June did not issue a nomination that would ordinarily prompt a vote in the Legislature. But Senate Republicans went forward with a vote regardless.“Wisconsinites have expressed concerns with the administration of elections both here in Wisconsin and nationally,” said Mr. LeMahieu, the majority leader, according to The Associated Press. “We need to rebuild faith in Wisconsin’s elections.”In June, Ms. Wolfe sent a letter to legislators, saying that “no election in Wisconsin history has been as scrutinized, reviewed, investigated and reinvestigated” as the 2020 election and that there were “no findings of wrongdoing or significant fraud.” She urged lawmakers to push back against falsehoods that had circulated about the election’s integrity.But Republican senators voted to oust her nonetheless, in a 22-11 party-line vote that took place on the floor of the State Capitol.With Ms. Wolfe choosing to stay in the position, it is anticipated that Republicans will challenge every decision she makes, and her future will most likely be tied up in the courts in coming months. They, however, cannot fully remove her because of a recent state Supreme Court ruling that state officials can maintain their positions until the State Senate votes in a replacement. Mr. Evers has said he will ensure that Ms. Wolfe maintains her salary and access to her office in the meantime.Earlier this week, Wisconsin Republicans suggested they would put forth a bill requiring legislative approval for any new House and Senate maps in the state. The Wisconsin Supreme Court is expected to hear Democratic-led lawsuits that seek to remove the current G.O.P.-drawn lines.Republican lawmakers have also said in recent weeks that they would be open to impeaching the newest addition to the state’s Supreme Court, Justice Janet Protasiewicz, a Democrat, before she has heard a case. In her campaign this year, she was unusually blunt about her positions on issues including abortion rights and the state’s maps, which she called “rigged.” More

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    Wisconsin Republicans vote to fire top election official as denialists tighten grip

    Wisconsin’s top elections official suffered another blow on Thursday when the Republican-controlled state senate voted to fire her by a party line vote of 22 to 11. Meagan Wolfe’s status as elections administrator will now likely be determined in court.Legal experts and the Wisconsin attorney general have disputed the move by Republican senators to remove Wolfe, a respected and accomplished non-partisan leader. Her removal would affect the administration of elections in 2024 and illustrates the increasingly wide reach of election deniers and rightwing conspiracy theorists in Wisconsin politics.Before she became a lightning rod for conspiracy theories and criticism surrounding the 2020 election, Wolfe enjoyed wide support from Republicans in the state legislature. Appointed to head the Wisconsin elections commission in 2018, she was confirmed by a unanimous vote in the state senate in 2019.When the Covid-19 virus pummeled Wisconsin, disrupting elections, an attorney representing the Republican assembly speaker, Robin Vos, and the former senate majority leader Scott Fitzgerald wrote in a letter that they “wholeheartedly support” many protocols outlined by the statewide commission.Crucially, Wolfe, who provides expertise and recommendations to the commission, serves at their direction – and not the other way around.One pandemic-era policy that has come under fire by Republicans, creating temporary adjustments to nursing home voting, was issued by a unanimous vote of the three Democratic and three Republican commissioners.“Meagan is being blamed for the decisions of her commission,” said Claire Woodall-Vogg, executive director of Milwaukee’s election commission. “It’s really unfortunate that she’s being used as the scapegoat when she was not the person responsible for making any decisions that they’re punishing her for.”It was only after the 2020 election, which Donald Trump lost to president Joe Biden by just over 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, that complaints about the nonpartisan administrator began to circulate. Groups and individuals that spread falsehoods about widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election have obsessed over Wolfe, publishing missives in Gateway Pundit, a site that peddles misinformation, and earning a warning from state capitol police for allegedly stalking her.State lawmakers, largely focusing their criticisms on pandemic-related policies like the expanded use of ballot drop boxes and the guidance for nursing home voting, joined the chorus calling for Wolfe’s ouster.When Wolfe’s term ended in June, Democrats on the bipartisan commission blocked a vote to send a recommendation for her reappointment to the state senate, anticipating the senate would in turn vote to fire her. The commissioners relied on precedent from a 2022 Wisconsin supreme court ruling that found a Republican member of the state’s natural resources board who declined to put himself forward for reappointment in 2021 could not be removed from office.Still, Republicans moved forward with reappointment proceedings for Wolfe, holding a 29 August hearing where election deniers and conspiracy theorists from around the state gathered to air their grievances about Wisconsin elections. In a letter, the Democratic attorney general, Josh Kaul, wrote that the state senate had “no current authority to confirm or reject the appointment of a WEC administrator”, an opinion that was echoed by the legislature’s own nonpartisan attorneys.Jeff Smith, a Democratic state senator on the shared revenue, elections and consumer protection committee who abstained from a committee vote on Wolfe’s reappointment, said in a statement that the vote was “not properly before the Senate or its committees”, adding that he has “full confidence in Administrator Wolfe and the work that she has done for the people of Wisconsin”.Devin LeMahieu, the Republican state senate majority leader who voted against Wolfe’s reappointment, previously accused the administrator of “mishandling” the 2020 election. LeMahieu’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.During the floor session on Thursday, the Democratic senate minority leader, Melissa Agard, described the move to oust Wolfe as one of many “shameless continued attacks on our elections”.Democrats in the state senate objected to the vote repeatedly. Mark Spreitzer, a Democratic member of the senate’s shared revenue, elections and consumer protection committee, called the nomination “fake” and accused Republicans in the senate of indulging conspiracy theorists.Senators opposing the vote noted the wide-ranging implications of Wolfe’s disputed reappointment process.“Disenfranchisement was real,” said the Democratic state senator Lena Taylor, describing the long lines that plagued polling places in Milwaukee during the spring 2020 election. Taylor argued that the vote – which she described as a “sham process” – would delegitimate sincere elections concerns in favor of falsehoods and conspiracy theories.LeMahieu disputed Democrats’ opposition to the process, instead blaming Democrats on the elections commission for blocking the commission from advancing Wolfe’s nomination to the senate. The Thursday vote, LeMahieu said, “represents the lack of faith” in Wisconsin elections, sidestepping claims that the process would embolden conspiracy theorists.Elections officials in Wisconsin worry the ongoing proceedings will fuel more misinformation about elections and say their work will be negatively impacted if Wolfe leaves her position or is removed from office.“We’re already dealing with extra public records requests that are coming through in regards to elections,” said Kaci Lundgren, a Douglas county clerk. “Laws change all the time in regards to elections, so to have that experience and that knowledge gone, it would be disconcerting, it would be difficult. Frustrating.”Woodall-Vogg agreed, describing the possible vacancy as “a major blow”. The Milwaukee official added that a disruption in leadership would likely impact the staff of the elections commission, who provide technical assistance to clerks across the state. “I think what is most disappointing is that they’re bringing a nonpartisan election official and making her position very political.”Shortly after the vote Thursday, Kaul announced he had filed a lawsuit against Republican leaders, seeking to keep Wolfe in her job.“The story today is not what the senate has purported to do with its vote,” he said in a press release. “It’s that the senate has blatantly disregarded state law in order to put its full stamp of approval on the ongoing baseless attacks on our democracy.”Addressing reporters Thursday afternoon, Wolfe said she would remain in her position until a court said otherwise. She said Republicans sought to oust her because “I will not bend to political pressure”.“The senate’s vote today to remove me is not a referendum on the job I do, but rather a reaction to not achieving the political outcome they desire,” she said. “The political outcome they desired, I believe is to get rid of me. The reason they want to get rid of me for political purposes is because I will not bend to political pressure.”She also expressed some disbelief that many of the claims that her office had repeatedly debunked continued to circulate in front of the legislature and were relied on as a basis for trying to remove her.“It is sometimes hard to wrap my head around how we still are here,” she said.
    Join us for a live event on 26 September in Chicago, Democracy and Distrust: Overcoming threats to the 2024 election. More

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    What Republicans are doing to Wisconsin is a warning sign to all Americans | Andrew Gawthorpe

    If you need a reminder that the Republican party’s problem with democracy extends beyond the antics of Donald Trump, look no further than Wisconsin. A battle is under way there which began before the January 6 insurrection was even a twinkle in Trump’s eye, and which will do much to determine the future of democracy in America whether Trump ultimately answers for his crimes or not. It’s no exaggeration to say that Wisconsin and its state capitol, Madison, are now the front line of the battle to save American democracy.In 2011, Republicans gerrymandered Wisconsin’s state legislature so badly that the party can win supermajorities despite losing the popular vote, as it did in 2018. Voters have fought back, and earlier this year they elected Janet Protasiewicz to the state supreme court, ushering in a new liberal majority which looked poised to finally overturn the gerrymander and bring democratic regime change to Madison.But Wisconsin Republicans have no intention of seeing their undeserved power slip away. They’re proposing to impeach Protasiewicz on spurious charges before she has ruled on a single case, paralyzing the court and leaving the gerrymander intact.When Trump argued that he was the real winner of the election because the votes of people living in Democratic-leaning urban areas were somehow fraudulent and should not count, he was repeating arguments that Wisconsin Republicans had already honed. The speaker of the state assembly, Robin Vos, has explained that the state’s gerrymander is fair because “if you took Madison and Milwaukee out of the state election formula, we would have a clear majority”. Because Madison and Milwaukee are the parts of the state with the largest concentration of non-white voters, Vos has revealed what the Wisconsin gerrymander is really about: race.There is a long history in the United States of skewed electoral systems being used to suppress the voices of minority voters, and Wisconsin’s is only the latest example. Like their predecessors in other states, Wisconsin Republicans have been remarkably frank about their intention of ensuring that minorities stay in their place. When Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tony Evers powered to victory in 2018 with massive wins in Madison and Milwaukee, the Republican legislature used a lame-duck session to strip him of much of his power. Not content with that, Evers’ Republican opponent in 2022, Tim Michels, promised that if he was elected then Republicans in Wisconsin “will never lose another election”.The latest target of this raw, racist power politics is the Wisconsin’s electorate new choice for the state supreme court. Protasiewicz won by more than 10% on record turnout, which was spurred by widespread voter dissatisfaction with the fruits of Republican rule. In particular, voters oppose the state’s harsh anti-abortion law, which makes abortion illegal unless it is necessary to save the life of the mother, with no exceptions for other medical problems or rape. A majority of Wisconsinites wanted a liberal state supreme court which would overturn that law, and they voted accordingly.By linking abortion rights to questions of democracy, Protasiewicz came up with a playbook that can be used across America to push back against attacks on basic constitutional rights, be they in the doctor’s office or the voting booth. That’s why Republicans are so scared of her and desperate to find a way to stop her from succeeding.Republicans’ plan to impeach Protasiewicz is nakedly hypocritical: They argue that Protasiewicz, who received Democratic campaign donations, cannot give unbiased rulings in gerrymandering cases – despite the fact that numerous other Wisconsin state supreme court justices, including Republicans, have also received party donations and ruled on cases with political implications.Their plan also bends democratic norms, in this case by impeaching Protasiewicz and then simply leaving her in limbo, legally unable to hear cases. Because the plan wouldn’t actually formally kick her from office, it denies the state’s Democratic governor the opportunity to replace her with another liberal. Democrats are fighting back, but their chances of success hinge on their ability to convince Republicans in the gerrymandered assembly to do the right thing.As Wisconsin goes, so goes America. Although sometimes referred to as a “moderate” state, it is more accurate to view Wisconsin as one very conservative state and one very liberal state jammed together. The fact that it is narrowly divided between the two parties is precisely why Republicans have resorted to constitutional and political skullduggery to give themselves an unfair advantage.The same is true of many other states, and indeed of America as a whole. What happens in Wisconsin is a crucial test case of whether the most brazen attempts to turn competitive elections into uncompetitive one-party control will fly.This challenge will remain whether Trump goes to jail or not. Wisconsin Republicans were some of the most fervent backers of Trump’s own undemocratic actions, but they needed no lessons from him in how to suppress the will of the people. The Republican party’s belief in its own god-given right to rule – and that of its white, rural electorate – found its most dangerous expression in Trump’s attempt to overthrow the 2020 election, but it long predated him. It will outlive him unless it is chastened by accountability and defeat at every turn. All eyes are now on Wisconsin and Janet Protasiewicz to see if it will be. Good luck, your honor.
    Andrew Gawthorpe is a historian of the United States at Leiden University. He hosts a podcast called America Explained and writes a newsletter of the same name More

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    Wisconsin voters caught in the middle as misinformation takes on education

    In Wisconsin, two groups of activists are touring the state spreading seemingly opposing information about the state’s election system. One of them, led by a former Republican state senator, aims to restore trust in the administration and outcomes of elections, while the other rejects the results of the 2020 election and promotes debunked claims about widespread voter fraud in the state.Former state senator Kathy Bernier’s efforts form part of a multi-state push by the non-partisan group Keep Our Republic to educate the public about elections and democracy issues “before it is too late”, according to the organization’s website.The other coalition of activists, called North of 29 – a reference to Highway 29, which cuts a line across the state roughly between Green Bay and Minneapolis – spreads a dire message about elections: they aren’t secure, fraud is rampant, and the only way to ensure correct election results is to return to hand-counting ballots.It is difficult to ascertain the relative impacts of Bernier’s group, which debunks elections falsehoods, and North of 29, which spreads them. But confusion about the behind-the-scenes of elections and an appetite for explanations in Wisconsin, a swing state known for delivering razor-thin margins during statewide races, has created an environment for both groups to draw in voters.Groups similar to North of 29 appear to be active across the country. Efforts to spread unfounded claims of widespread voter fraud and promote a return to counting ballots by hand, driven largely by volunteers and local rightwing political groups, are aided by prominent figures such as the MyPillow founder, Mike Lindell. In Shasta county, California, and more recently, Spalding county, Georgia, the spread of conspiracy theories resulted in local officials opting to hand-count ballots.Hannah Fried, the executive director of All Voting is Local, a voting rights advocacy group, said she is concerned about the trend. “Machine tabulation has become the gold standard,” said Fried. “What we don’t want to see is localities trying to implement hand-counting before machine tabulation, based on conspiracy theories.”The available research, including a 2018 study focusing on voting in Wisconsin, overwhelmingly shows voting machines tally votes much faster and more accurately than a human could by hand.The groups pushing to reinstate hand-counting in Wisconsin and elsewhere formed in the wake of the 2020 election. Stephanie Forrer-Harbridge, who founded North of 29 in 2020, said the idea came to her after she and her husband watched in disbelief as the election results came in on TV, with Trump losing Wisconsin. “We were like, ‘What’s going on?’” she said.After election day, she watched with interest as figures like Lindell and Douglas Frank, a chemist and former math teacher, took Trump’s unfounded allegations that the election was stolen and claimed to substantiate them using data. One of Frank’s hallmark findings suggests that similar voter registration patterns in counties across Michigan proved the existence of an “algorithm” used to steal the election. Frank applies this assertion, which PolitiFact has debunked in depth, to states across the country.Frank’s findings confirmed Forrer-Harbridge’s suspicion that something nefarious had gone on during the 2020 election, and inspired her to act. “I reached out to Dr Frank, and I’m like, ‘We need help,’” she said.Frank agreed to come to Wisconsin to speak with residents who had questions about the results of the 2020 election, and election integrity generally. “I literally cried when he said he’d come,” Forrer-Harbridge said.The results of the 2020 election in Wisconsin have been affirmed repeatedly by recounts, investigations and surveys, including a review by a conservative group that called for a revision of certain pandemic-era policies implemented by the Wisconsin Elections Commission, but found no evidence of widespread fraud. But misinformation and claims that Wisconsin’s elections are compromised and vulnerable to massive fraud have continued to circulate, largely driven by politicians and prominent media figures repeating the false claims.Mike Wagner, a journalism professor at the University of Wisconsin and a misinformation researcher, attributes the persistence of elections-related falsehoods to political polarization and the willingness of bad-faith actors to endorse a lie for political gain. “If you trust someone and think they should be the leader of the free world and they tell you, ‘you were lied to and this [election] was stolen,’ it’s not surprising that some people believe that,” Wagner said.Since 2020, Frank has crisscrossed the country speaking about his theory of election fraud and his prescriptions to curb it, visiting Wisconsin regularly, where he speaks at town hall-style events in communities around the state. One event in Barron county, in the north-west of the state, drew hundreds of attendees on 28 July.Invites to the event, billed as a second amendment rally, were shared online by groups including the Barron county Republican party. Dave Graf, a resident of Barron county, noticed one flyer for the event advertised a lineup of unfamiliar speakers, including Frank. (Also featured: “new age entertainment”, “free beer”, and “hourly drawings for firearms”.)Graf was interested.After serving for 20 years in the US military as a mental health counselor, Graf has spent the first years of his retirement informally tracking the rise of extremism in his community. He had long worried that “white nationalism, xenophobic nationalism, was something that was essentially going unchecked in the military” and was dismayed to find that an ocean away, friends from his home town were beginning to embrace a similar worldview.Most people at the event, which he and other attendees estimated drew more than 500 people, seemed more interested in the gun raffle than the lineup of speakers. But one point, raised by Frank, concerned him.Frank suggests that supporters canvass the area, going door to door to see if their voter data checks out in person, Graf said. “We’re an open-carry, second amendment-loving place where this rough-looking group of people may be knocking on doors and intimidating folks.”Forrer-Harbridge confirmed that North of 29 trains canvassers to search for election fraud, but vehemently denied that the efforts constituted voter intimidation. “We don’t care who you want to vote for,” said Forrer-Harbridge. “We want to make sure it counts, and that’s what our right is as citizens.”Forrer-Harbridge said she has trained “team leads” in more than 20 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties to knock doors in search of fraud.Door-to-door canvassing in search of voter fraud is not a new concept. One group, called US Election Integrity Plan, has been sued in a federal court in Colorado for allegedly violating the Voting Rights Act and the Ku Klux Klan Act by going “door-to-door around Colorado to intimidate voters.Frank and Lindell did not respond to requests for comment.When I asked Bernier, the Wisconsin leader of Keep Our Republic, whether she was concerned about groups like North of 29, she shrugged and said she didn’t pay them too much attention. “I try not to keep track of them because they are so irrelevant, in my mind,” she said.Instead, Bernier said she focuses on voters who have questions about the electoral process but aren’t invested in the idea that the 2020 election was rife with fraud.The goal, Bernier said, “is to educate the electorate on our electoral system and its checks and balances, to assure people that when the election results are in, they are factual and you can count on that”. Her plan involves traveling across the state over the next year, coordinating with municipal and county clerks to present the nitty-gritty, sometimes boring details of elections administration to demystify the process for voters.Before she was elected to the state assembly in 2010, Bernier served for a decade as the Chippewa county clerk – a role that includes administering elections in the county. Later, as a lawmaker, Bernier chaired numerous elections committees in the assembly and senate. Allegations of rampant voter fraud in the 2020 election rankled her, and she earned a reputation for speaking out against the Republican party on the issue.Bernier stressed the importance of demonstrating nonpartisanship to voters who may have supported Trump but aren’t sure where they land on claims of rampant voter fraud. She says her background as a conservative has helped her establish a rapport with some voters.Bernier’s not alone in her efforts. County clerks and municipal clerks – the people who make elections run – work year round to instill a sense of faith in the electoral process.Nevertheless, groups like North of 29 continue to promote misinformation and give platforms to the people actively spreading it. More