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    Counting votes and cutting violence

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    Counting votes and cutting violenceShattered glass at Brazil’s Supreme Court after supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro rioted in Brasília in January.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesThe resilience of Brazilian democracy, in the face of efforts by supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro to undermine the validity of the recent presidential election, is a story that has just about everything. Courtroom drama, baseless claims of voter fraud, brawls in the halls of power, and hopeful hints that democracy may not be as fragile as it has seemed in recent years.There has been, unsurprisingly, a lot of focus on the powerful individuals whose decisions ensured that the election result was respected, such as an aggressive Supreme Court justice and the leaders of its military. Their decisions were undoubtedly important. But focusing on a few people’s choices can obscure another important issue: the strength of Brazil’s democratic institutions — and how that affects ordinary Brazilians’ lives.I know that “institutions” can sound dry as a topic — a second ago we were talking about riots, now I’m conjuring visions of paperwork and buzzing fluorescent lighting — but stay with me here.Because I want to talk about a new paper about Brazilian political institutions by Camilo Nieto-Matiz, a political science professor at the University of Texas San Antonio, and Natán Skigin, a Ph.D. student at Notre Dame. It reads a bit like political science as scripted by Martin Scorsese — light on the paperwork, heavy on the murders and gangland politics. And although it is not specifically about Bolsonaro or the recent election, it offers important context about the conditions that brought the country into, and potentially out of, a democratic crisis.A surprising way to reduce violent crimeBrazil’s electronic voting system has made headlines around the world with the false claims by Bolsonaro, as president, that it was rife with fraud.But Nieto-Matiz and Skigin began studying the system years earlier, when Brazil first began rolling it out to districts across the country. They noticed that it seemed to be having a surprising effect: When electronic voting was introduced into a particular area, violent crime there quickly fell.“That was really puzzling,” Nieto-Matiz told me when we spoke last week. They had expected to perhaps find a relationship between electronic voting and particular policies: perhaps a benefit to illiterate citizens, whose votes were more likely to be counted under the new electronic system than the old paper one. But the decrease in violence seemed to happen almost immediately, before any new policies had a chance to take effect. What could account for that?When they dug a little deeper, they found that the new voting system seemed to make it slightly less likely for political parties that gain votes by promising goods or resources in exchange for support — what political scientists call clientelistic parties — to win elections. Those parties may have been more likely to rely on ballot fraud to win, the researchers hypothesized, which became harder once electronic voting was introduced.By contrast, so-called programmatic parties, which tend to mobilize support by promising to enact certain policies — for example the leftist agenda of the Workers Party, the party of the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — did slightly better under the new system. (Programmatic parties can have right-wing agendas, too. And no party is exclusively one model or another, but they tend to skew in one direction.)Nieto-Matiz and Skigin wondered whether there might be a link between violence and the type of party that prevailed in elections, so they set out to test that more rigorously — resulting in the current paper.They examined a set of local elections so tight that they were essentially coin flips, making the results as close to random as it would be possible to be in real-world politics. That way, they could be reasonably confident that differences were because of the type of party that won, rather than the underlying conditions in the district.The results were striking: When programmatic parties won, local homicide rates immediately fell. But when clientelistic parties won, violence in their districts actually got worse. And, once again, the researchers said, the effect showed up far too quickly for it to be the result of new laws or policies.One study isn’t enough to conclusively say why they found a correlation between programmatic parties and reduced violence, the researchers were careful to note when we spoke. But they had a hypothesis — and that’s where things start getting Scorsese-ish.They suggest that clientelistic parties are more likely to collaborate with local armed groups, which in Brazil include criminal gangs and paramilitary groups backed by landowners and oligarchs.Research has shown that clientelistic parties tend to have relatively loose internal controls on membership and candidates, which can make them useful vehicles for criminals looking to get into politics — something that other studies have found in India and Colombia. Additionally, gangs and paramilitaries can help get rid of political opposition, assist with election fraud, or deliver the votes of people from groups or areas under their control.By contrast, because programmatic parties need to maintain ideological discipline, they tend to have stronger institutional controls over who can be a party candidate or official. And they might also face more of a backlash if voters perceive them as corrupt or violent, because their appeal to voters is based on how well they enact their ideological agendas in office. That’s harder to do while mired in investigations or prosecutions for wrongdoing, which means they have less incentive to collaborate with violent groups.So the theory goes that, while individual politicians’ decisions might vary quite a bit, clientelistic parties had more of an incentive to enter into mutually beneficial relationships with gangs, paramilitaries or other violent actors. And that gave those armed groups more impunity and local power, which in turn increased violent crime.Which brings us back to the resilience of Brazilian democracy.Research has shown that over time, programmatic parties tend to crowd out clientelistic parties, because support for the latter tends to collapse as soon as they’re out of power and unable to distribute resources to supporters. Skigin and Nieto-Matiz’s work adds to that by showing how the process might also reduce the power of violent groups.“We should expect that those that those criminal actors or generally coercive actors, they should be either weakened, or, if they are able to survive, they are not going to be able to resort to as much violence,” Skigin said.Viewed through that lens, the broader story of Brazil’s democracy starts to look less like an episode of democratic crisis, and more like turbulence on a long, slow and still incomplete trajectory of democratization.And it suggests that the recent election, which saw the victory of a candidate for the Workers Party — the largest programmatic party in the country — may have implications for ordinary citizens’ lives that go far beyond his party’s policies or ideology.Thank you for being a subscriberRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.I’d love your feedback on this newsletter. Please email thoughts and suggestions to interpreter@nytimes.com. You can also follow me on Twitter. More

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      Lula asume la presidencia de Brasil, con Bolsonaro en Florida

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      Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva tomó posesión como el nuevo presidente de Brasil. Mientras tanto, el expresidente Jair Bolsonaro, quien enfrenta investigaciones, se refugia en Orlando.El presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva tomó las riendas del gobierno brasileño el domingo en una elaborada toma de posesión, que contó con una caravana de automóviles, un festival de música y cientos de miles de seguidores que llenaron la explanada central de Brasilia, la capital del país.Pero faltaba una persona clave: Jair Bolsonaro, el presidente saliente de extrema derecha.Se suponía que Bolsonaro iba a entregar a Lula la banda presidencial el domingo, un símbolo importante de la transición pacífica del poder en un país donde mucha gente aún recuerda los 21 años de una dictadura militar que terminó en 1985.En cambio, Bolsonaro se despertó el domingo a miles de kilómetros de distancia, en una casa alquilada propiedad de un luchador profesional de artes marciales mixtas a unos cuantos kilómetros de Disney World. Enfrentado a varias investigaciones por su gestión, Bolsonaro voló a Orlando el viernes por la noche y planea permanecer en Florida durante al menos un mes.Bolsonaro cuestionó durante meses la confiabilidad de los sistemas electorales de Brasil, sin pruebas, y cuando perdió en octubre, se negó a reconocerlo inequívocamente. En una especie de discurso de despedida el viernes, rompiendo semanas de un silencio casi absoluto, dijo que trató de impedir que Lula asumiera el cargo, pero fracasó.“Dentro de las leyes, respetando la Constitución, busqué una salida”, dijo. Luego pareció animar a sus partidarios a seguir adelante. “Vivimos en una democracia o no vivimos”, dijo. “Nadie quiere una aventura”.Una multitud de simpatizantes saluda a la comitiva del presidente de Brasil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, y su esposa, Rosângela da Silva, tras su toma de posesión en Brasilia el domingo.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesEl domingo, Lula subió la rampa de acceso a las oficinas presidenciales con un grupo diverso de brasileños, entre ellos una mujer negra, un hombre discapacitado, un niño de 10 años, un hombre indígena y un trabajador de una fábrica. Una voz anunció entonces que Lula aceptaría la banda verde y amarilla del “pueblo brasileño”, y Aline Sousa, una recolectora de basura de 33 años, tomó el papel de Bolsonaro y colocó la banda al nuevo presidente.En un discurso ante el Congreso el domingo, Lula dijo que combatiría el hambre y la deforestación, levantaría la economía e intentaría unir al país. Pero también apuntó contra su predecesor, diciendo que Bolsonaro había amenazado la democracia de Brasil.“Bajo los vientos de la redemocratización, solíamos decir: ‘Dictadura nunca más’”, dijo. “Hoy, después del terrible desafío que hemos superado, debemos decir: ‘Democracia para siempre’”.El ascenso de Lula a la presidencia culmina una asombrosa remontada política. En su día fue el presidente más popular de Brasil, y dejó el cargo con un índice de aprobación superior al 80 por ciento. Luego cumplió 580 días en prisión, de 2018 a 2019, por cargos de corrupción relacionados con aceptar un departamento y renovaciones de empresas de construcción que licitaban contratos gubernamentales.Después de que esas condenas fueran anuladas porque el Supremo Tribunal Federal de Brasil dictaminó que el juez del caso de Lula había sido parcial, se postuló de nuevo para la presidencia, y ganó.Lula, de 77 años, y sus partidarios sostienen que fue víctima de una persecución política. Bolsonaro y sus partidarios dicen que Brasil tiene ahora un criminal como presidente.Cientos de miles de personas acudieron a Brasilia —la capital extensa y planificada que fue fundada en 1960 para albergar al gobierno brasileño—, muchos de ellos vestidos con el rojo vivo del izquierdista Partido de los Trabajadores de Lula.Simpatizantes del Presidente Lula vitorean durante su toma de posesión.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesDurante el fin de semana, los pasajeros de los aviones cantaron canciones sobre Lula, los juerguistas bailaron samba en las fiestas de Año Nuevo y, por toda la ciudad, se oyeron gritos espontáneos desde balcones y esquinas, anunciando la llegada de Lula y la salida de Bolsonaro.“La toma de posesión de Lula tiene que ver sobre todo con la esperanza”, dijo Isabela Nascimento, de 30 años, una desarrolladora de software que acudió a las festividades el domingo. “Espero verlo representando no solo a un partido político, sino a toda una población: todo un grupo de personas que solo quieren ser más felices”.Sin embargo, en otras partes de la ciudad, miles de partidarios de Bolsonaro permanecieron acampados frente a la sede del ejército, como lo han estado desde las elecciones, muchos diciendo que estaban convencidos de que los militares evitarían que Lula asumiera el cargo el domingo.“El ejército tiene patriotismo y amor por el país y, en el pasado, el ejército hizo lo mismo”, dijo el sábado Magno Rodrigues, de 60 años, un mecánico y conserje retirado que da discursos diarios en las protestas, refiriéndose al golpe militar de 1964 que dio paso a la dictadura.Magno Rodrigues, de 60 años, mecánico y conserje retirado, ha pasado las últimas nueve semanas acampado frente al cuartel general del ejército brasileño, durmiendo en una tienda de campaña sobre una estrecha colchoneta con su esposa.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesRodrigues ha pasado las últimas nueve semanas durmiendo con su esposa en una tienda de campaña en un colchón pequeño. Ofreció un recorrido por el campamento, convertido en una pequeña aldea desde que Bolsonaro perdió las elecciones. Cuenta con duchas, servicio de lavandería, estaciones de recarga de teléfonos celulares, un hospital y 28 puestos de comida.En gran medida, las protestas no han sido violentas —con más rezos que disturbios—, pero un pequeño grupo de personas ha incendiado vehículos. El gobierno de transición de Lula había dado a entender que los campamentos no se tolerarían durante mucho más tiempo.¿Cuánto tiempo estaba Rodrigues dispuesto a quedarse? “El tiempo que haga falta para liberar a mi país”, dijo. “El resto de mi vida si es necesario”.La ausencia de Bolsonaro y la presencia de miles de manifestantes que creen que la elección fue robada ilustran la profunda división y los enormes desafíos que enfrenta Lula en su tercer mandato como presidente del país más grande de América Latina y una de las mayores democracias del mundo.Lula presidió el auge económico de Brasil entre 2003 y 2011, pero el país no estaba tan polarizado entonces y los vientos económicos eran mucho más promisorios. La elección de Lula culmina una ola izquierdista en América Latina, en la que desde 2018 seis de los siete países más grandes de la región eligieron a líderes de izquierda, impulsados por una reacción contra los mandatarios en el poder.Una gran multitud se reunió para la toma de posesión el domingo en la capital de Brasil.Silvia Izquierdo/Associated PressLa decisión de Bolsonaro de pasar al menos las primeras semanas de la presidencia de Lula en Florida muestra su inquietud sobre su futuro en Brasil. Bolsonaro, de 67 años, está vinculado a cinco investigaciones separadas, entre ellas, una sobre la divulgación de documentos relacionados con una investigación clasificada, otra sobre sus ataques a las máquinas de votación de Brasil y otra sobre sus posibles conexiones con “milicias digitales” que difunden desinformación en su nombre.Como ciudadano común, Bolsonaro perderá ahora la inmunidad procesal que tenía como presidente. Algunos casos en su contra probablemente serán trasladados del Supremo Tribunal Federal a las cortes locales.Algunos de los principales fiscales federales que han trabajado en los casos creen que hay pruebas suficientes para condenar a Bolsonaro, particularmente en el caso relacionado con la divulgación de material clasificado, según un alto fiscal federal que habló bajo condición de anonimato para discutir investigaciones confidenciales.El domingo, Lula dijo al Congreso que Bolsonaro podría enfrentar consecuencias. “No tenemos ningún ánimo de revancha contra quienes intentaron someter a la nación a sus planes personales e ideológicos, pero garantizaremos el imperio de la ley”, dijo. “Quien erró responderá por sus errores”.Es poco probable que la presencia de Bolsonaro en Estados Unidos pueda protegerlo de ser procesado en Brasil. Aun así, Florida se ha convertido en una especie de refugio para los brasileños conservadores en los últimos años.Comentaristas prominentes de algunos de los programas de entrevistas más populares de Brasil tienen su sede en Florida. Un provocador de extrema derecha que se enfrenta a la detención en Brasil por amenazar a jueces ha vivido en Florida mientras espera una respuesta a su solicitud de asilo político en Estados Unidos. Y Carla Zambelli, una de las principales aliadas de Bolsonaro en el Congreso de Brasil, huyó a Florida durante casi tres semanas después de que fuera filmada persiguiendo a un hombre a punta de pistola en la víspera de las elecciones.El expresidente Jair Bolsonaro, tercero desde la derecha, llegando a votar en Río de Janeiro en octubre. El viernes partió hacia Estados Unidos.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga para The New York TimesBolsonaro planea permanecer en Florida de uno a tres meses, lo que le da cierta distancia para observar si el gobierno de Lula impulsará alguna de las investigaciones en su contra, según un amigo cercano de la familia Bolsonaro que habló bajo condición de anonimato para discutir planes privados. El gobierno brasileño también autorizó a cuatro ayudantes a pasar un mes en Florida con Bolsonaro, según un aviso oficial.El sábado, Bolsonaro saludó a sus nuevos vecinos en la entrada de su casa alquilada en Orlando, muchos de ellos inmigrantes brasileños que se tomaron selfis con el presidente saliente. Luego fue a comer a un KFC.No es infrecuente que ex jefes de Estado vivan en Estados Unidos para ocupar cargos académicos o similares. Pero no es habitual que un jefe de Estado busque refugio en Estados Unidos ante un posible enjuiciamiento en su país, especialmente cuando el país de origen es un aliado democrático de Estados Unidos.Bolsonaro y sus aliados argumentan que es un objetivo político de la izquierda brasileña y, en particular, del Supremo Tribunal Federal de Brasil. Han abandonado en gran medida las afirmaciones de que las elecciones fueron amañadas debido al fraude electoral, pero en su lugar ahora afirman que fueron injustas porque Alexandre de Moraes, un juez del Supremo Tribunal que encabeza el organismo electoral de Brasil, inclinó la balanza a favor de Lula.Un campamento de partidarios de Bolsonaro se ha convertido en una pequeña ciudad frente al cuartel general del ejército en Brasilia.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesDe Moraes fue un actor activo en las elecciones, al suspender las cuentas de redes sociales de muchos de los partidarios de Bolsonaro y conceder a Lula más tiempo en televisión debido a declaraciones engañosas en los anuncios políticos de Bolsonaro. De Moraes ha dicho que necesitaba actuar para contrarrestar las posturas antidemocráticas de Bolsonaro y sus partidarios. A algunos juristas les preocupa que haya abusado de su poder, al actuar a menudo de forma unilateral en formas que van mucho más allá de las de un típico juez del Supremo Tribunal.Aun así, Bolsonaro se ha enfrentado a críticas generalizadas, tanto en la derecha como en la izquierda, por su respuesta a su derrota electoral. Después de insinuar durante meses que rebatiría cualquier derrota, encendiendo a sus partidarios y preocupando a sus críticos, se mantuvo en silencio y se negó a reconocer públicamente la victoria de Lula. Su gobierno llevó a cabo la transición mientras él se alejaba de los focos y de muchas de sus funciones oficiales.El sábado por la noche, en su discurso de despedida a la nación, incluso su vicepresidente, Hamilton Mourão, un general retirado, dejó clara su opinión sobre los últimos momentos de Bolsonaro como presidente.“Líderes que deberían tranquilizar y unir a la nación en torno a un proyecto de país han dejado que su silencio o su protagonismo inoportuno y dañino creen un clima de caos y desintegración social”, dijo Mourão.Jack Nicas es el jefe de la corresponsalía del Times en Brasil, que abarca Brasil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. Antes cubría tecnología desde San Francisco. Antes de unirse al Times, en 2018, trabajó durante siete años en The Wall Street Journal. @jacknicas • Facebook More

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      in Elections

      Lula Becomes Brazil’s President, With Bolsonaro in Florida

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      Brazil inaugurates its new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, on Sunday. Facing investigations, former President Jair Bolsonaro has taken refuge in Orlando. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took the reins of the Brazilian government on Sunday in an elaborate inauguration, complete with a motorcade, music festival and hundreds of thousands of supporters filling the central esplanade of Brasília, the nation’s capital.But one key person was missing: the departing far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro.Mr. Bolsonaro was supposed to pass Mr. Lula the presidential sash on Sunday, an important symbol of the peaceful transition of power in a nation where many people still recall the 21-year military dictatorship that ended in 1985.Instead, Mr. Bolsonaro woke up Sunday 6,000 miles away, in a rented house owned by a professional mixed-martial-arts fighter a few miles from Disney World. Facing various investigations from his time in his office, Mr. Bolsonaro flew to Orlando on Friday night and plans to stay in Florida for at least a month.Mr. Bolsonaro had questioned the reliability of Brazil’s election systems for months, without evidence, and when he lost in October, he refused to concede unequivocally. In a sort of farewell address on Friday, breaking weeks of near silence, he said that he tried to block Mr. Lula from taking office but failed.“Within the laws, respecting the Constitution, I searched for a way out of this,” he said. He then appeared to encourage his supporters to move on. “We live in a democracy or we don’t,” he said. “No one wants an adventure.”A crowd of well-wishers greeted the motorcade of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and his wife, Rosangela da Silva, after his swearing-in in Brasília on Sunday.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesOn Sunday, Mr. Lula ascended the ramp to the presidential offices with a diverse group of Brazilians, including a Black woman, a disabled man, a 10-year-old boy, an Indigenous man and a factory worker. A voice then announced that Mr. Lula would accept the green-and-yellow sash from “the Brazilian people,” and Aline Sousa, a 33-year-old garbage collector, played the role of Mr. Bolsonaro and placed the sash on the new president.In an address to Congress on Sunday, Mr. Lula said that he would fight hunger and deforestation, lift the economy and try to unite the country. But he also took aim at his predecessor, saying that Mr. Bolsonaro had threatened Brazil’s democracy.“Under the winds of redemocratization, we used to say, ‘Dictatorship never again,’” he said. “Today, after the terrible challenge we’ve overcome, we must say, ‘Democracy forever.’”Mr. Lula’s ascension to the presidency caps a stunning political comeback. He was once Brazil’s most popular president, leaving office with an approval rating above 80 percent. He then served 580 days in prison, from 2018 to 2019, on corruption charges that he accepted a condo and renovations from construction companies bidding on government contracts.Brazil’s New PresidentLula Returns: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva takes the reins of Latin America’s largest nation 20 years after his first presidential term. He will lead a country that has drastically changed.Bolsonaro Flees: Jair Bolsonaro, the departing far-right president, has taken refuge in Orlando as he faces various investigations from his time in his office.Climate Challenges: Mr. Lula, who made climate a cornerstone of his campaign, has pledged to protect the Amazon rainforest. Here are his other plans to tackle climate change.Lessons in Democracy: The United States and Brazil both had presidents who attacked their elections. But their responses — and the aftermaths — differed greatly.After those convictions were thrown out because Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled that the judge in Mr. Lula’s case was biased, he ran for the presidency again — and won.Mr. Lula, 77, and his supporters maintain that he was the victim of political persecution. Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters say that Brazil now has a criminal as president.In Brasília, hundreds of thousands of people streamed into the sprawling, planned capital, founded in 1960 to house the Brazilian government, with many dressed in the bright red of Mr. Lula’s leftist Workers’ Party.Supporters of President Lula cheered during his inauguration.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesOver the weekend, passengers on arriving planes broke into rally songs about Mr. Lula, revelers danced to samba at New Year’s Eve parties and, across the city, spontaneous cries rang out from balconies and street corners, heralding Mr. Lula’s arrival and Mr. Bolsonaro’s exit.“Lula’s inauguration is mainly about hope,” said Isabela Nascimento, 30, a software developer walking to the festivities on Sunday. “I hope to see him representing not only a political party, but an entire population — a whole group of people who just want to be happier.”Yet elsewhere in the city, thousands of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters remained camped outside the army headquarters, as they have been since the election, many saying they were convinced that at the final moment on Sunday, the military would prevent Mr. Lula from taking office..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.Learn more about our process.“The army has patriotism and love for the country, and in the past, the army did the same thing,” Magno Rodrigues, 60, a former mechanic and janitor who gives daily speeches at the protests, said on Saturday, referring to the 1964 military coup that ushered in the dictatorship.Magno Rodrigues, 60, a former mechanic and janitor, has spent the past nine weeks camped outside the Brazilian Army headquarters, sleeping in a tent on a narrow pad with his wife. Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesMr. Rodrigues has spent the past nine weeks sleeping in a tent on a narrow pad with his wife. He provided a tour of the encampment, which had become a small village since Mr. Bolsonaro lost the election. It has showers, a laundry service, cellphone-charging stations, a hospital and 28 food stalls.The protests have been overwhelmingly nonviolent — with more praying than rioting — but a small group of people have set fire to vehicles. Mr. Lula’s transitional government had suggested that the encampments would not be tolerated for much longer.How long was Mr. Rodrigues prepared to stay? “As long as it takes to liberate my country,” he said. “For the rest of my life if I have to.”The absence of Mr. Bolsonaro and the presence of thousands of protesters who believe the election was stolen illustrate the deep divide and tall challenges that Mr. Lula faces in his third term as president of Latin America’s biggest country and one of the world’s largest democracies.He oversaw a boom in Brazil from 2003 to 2011, but the country was not nearly as polarized then, and the economic tailwinds were far stronger. Mr. Lula’s election caps a leftist wave in Latin America, with six of the region’s seven largest countries electing leftist leaders since 2018, fueled by an anti-incumbent backlash.A large crowd gathered for the inauguration on Sunday in Brazil’s capital.Silvia Izquierdo/Associated PressMr. Bolsonaro’s decision to spend at least the first weeks of Mr. Lula’s presidency in Florida shows his unease about his future in Brazil. Mr. Bolsonaro, 67, is linked to five separate inquiries, including one into his release of documents related to a classified investigation, another on his attacks on Brazil’s voting machines and another into his potential connections to “digital militias” that spread misinformation on his behalf.As a regular citizen, Mr. Bolsonaro will now lose the prosecutorial immunity he had as president. Some cases against him will probably be moved to local courts from the Supreme Court.Some top federal prosecutors who have worked on the cases believe there is enough evidence to convict Mr. Bolsonaro, particularly in the case related to the release of classified material, according to a top federal prosecutor who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential investigations.On Sunday, Mr. Lula told Congress that Mr. Bolsonaro could face consequences. “We have no intention of revenge against those who tried to subjugate the nation to their personal and ideological plans, but we will guarantee the rule of law,” he said. “Those who have done wrong will answer for their mistakes.”It is unlikely that Mr. Bolsonaro’s presence in the United States could protect him from prosecution in Brazil. Still, Florida has become a sort of refuge for conservative Brazilians in recent years.Prominent pundits on some of Brazil’s most popular talk shows are based in Florida. A far-right provocateur who faces arrest in Brazil for threatening judges has lived in Florida as he awaits a response to his political asylum request in the United States. And Carla Zambelli, one of Mr. Bolsonaro’s top allies in Brazil’s Congress, fled to Florida for nearly three weeks after she was filmed pursuing a man at gunpoint on the eve of the election.President Jair Bolsonaro, third from right, arriving to vote in Rio de Janeiro in October. On Friday he left for the United States.Maria Magdalena Arrellaga for The New York TimesMr. Bolsonaro plans to stay in Florida for one to three months, giving him some distance to observe whether Mr. Lula’s administration will push any of the investigations against him, according to a close friend of the Bolsonaro family who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private plans. The Brazilian government has also authorized four aides to spend a month in Florida with Mr. Bolsonaro, according to an official notice.On Saturday, Mr. Bolsonaro greeted his new neighbors in the driveway of his rented Orlando house, many of them Brazilian immigrants who took selfies with the departing president. He then went to a KFC to eat. It is not uncommon for former heads of state to live in the United States for posts in academia or similar ventures. But it is unusual for a head of state to seek safe haven in the United States from possible prosecution at home, particularly when the home country is a democratic U.S. ally. Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies argue that he is a political target of Brazil’s left and particularly Brazil’s Supreme Court. They have largely dropped claims that the election was rigged because of voter fraud but instead now claim that it was unfair because Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice who runs Brazil’s election agency, tipped the scales for Mr. Lula.An encampment of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters has turned into a village outside the army headquarters in Brasília.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesMr. Moraes was an active player in the election, suspending the social-media accounts of many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters and granting Mr. Lula more television time because of misleading statements in Mr. Bolsonaro’s political ads. Mr. Moraes has said he needed to act to counter the antidemocratic stances of Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters. Some legal experts worry that he abused his power, often acting unilaterally in ways that go far beyond that of a typical Supreme Court judge.Still, Mr. Bolsonaro has faced widespread criticism, on both the right and the left, for his response to his election loss. After suggesting for months he would dispute any loss — firing up his supporters and worrying his critics — he instead went silent, refusing to acknowledge Mr. Lula’s victory publicly. His administration carried out the transition as he receded from the spotlight and many of his official duties.On Saturday night, in his departing speech to the nation, even his vice president, Hamilton Mourão, a former general, made clear his views on Mr. Bolsonaro’s final moments as president.“Leaders that should reassure and unite the nation around a project for the country have let their silence or inopportune and harmful protagonism create a climate of chaos and social disintegration,” Mr. Mourão said. More

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      Angry Bolsonaro Supporters Protest in the Streets

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      Tens of thousands of people demonstrated in cities across Brazil, many of them demanding that the military stop the transfer of power to President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.BRASÍLIA — They arrived by the tens of thousands on Wednesday, angry and draped in Brazilian flags, massing outside military bases across the country. They were there, they said, to save Brazil’s democracy from a rigged election, and there was only one way to do so: The armed forces needed to take control of the government.It was an alarming demand in a country that suffered under a two-decade military dictatorship until 1985 — and yet another bizarre twist in the aftermath of Brazil’s polarizing elections.A day earlier, the far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, reluctantly agreed to a transfer of power after 45 hours of silence following his loss to a leftist former leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. But after Mr. Bolsonaro’s years of unfounded attacks on Brazil’s election systems, his supporters appeared far from accepting defeat.Andrea Vaz, a supporter of President Jair Bolsonaro, holds a sign claiming fraud in the presidential election outside the army headquarters on Wednesday.Dado Galdieri for The New York Times“I don’t understand it that well, but they have to intervene and hold new elections,” said Andrea Vaz, 51, a computer-hardware seller holding a sign that said, “Fraud in the voting machines!” at a large protest outside the Brazilian Army’s national headquarters in Brasília. “We saw various videos. People giving out money, buying votes,” she added. “There’s proof.”But some protesters had clearer, more drastic demands, which were circulating on WhatsApp and Telegram groups: The military should take control of the streets, the Congress and the Supreme Court should be disbanded, and the president should remain in power, at least until new elections could be held.The widespread protests and calls for the armed forces were an escalation of the Brazilian far-right’s refusal to accept the election of Mr. da Silva, a former president whom many on the right view as a criminal because of his past corruption scandal.Mr. Bolsonaro, in a two-minute speech on Tuesday in which he did not acknowledge his loss, said he supported peaceful protests inspired by “feelings of injustice in the electoral process.”Many of his followers saw that as a stamp of approval. “What he said yesterday, that gave me more energy to come,” said Larissa Oliveira da Silva, 22, who was sitting on a beach chair in the protest in São Paulo, propping up her broken foot. “After his comments, I saw that he is on our side.”But other protesters said that Mr. Bolsonaro had effectively given up with his agreement to transfer power to Mr. da Silva on Tuesday, so they were turning to the armed forces instead.In a statement, Brazil’s Ministry of Defense said that “the demonstrations, provided they are orderly and peaceful, are the exercise of freedom of expression, of thought, and of assembly, in accordance with constitutional principles and current laws.”The military has not considered intervening in the transfer of power and, if the protests expand, it may urge the president to ask his supporters to go home, according to a senior military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private talks. The military, which helped oversee the election, found no signs of fraud, the official said.The Ministry of Defense said that it would soon deliver its report on the vote’s integrity to election officials.In interviews with more than 60 protesters across Brazil since Sunday, almost none believed the election was clean. Those beliefs were rooted in the same circumstantial evidence, unattributed reports and inaccuracies that Mr. Bolsonaro has promoted for years to claim that Brazil’s elections are rife with fraud. They had seen videos of the voting machines malfunctioning, read that patterns in the vote returns were suspicious and, they said, they simply did not trust election officials.Most of all, however, they said that Mr. Bolsonaro had drawn much bigger crowds than Mr. da Silva — and almost everyone they knew voted for the president — so how could it be that he lost?The movement was loosely organized. There appeared to be no formal protest leaders, and prominent public figures, including conservative politicians, did not echo similar calls for intervention. Yet it quickly grew into the largest demonstration since Mr. Bolsonaro lost the vote on Sunday..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.Learn more about our process.With a collective turnout of well over 100,000 people, protesters gathered in at least 75 cities, including in all of Brazil’s 27 state capitals, often around military bases.Police clashed with pro-Bolsonaro protesters blocking the Castelo Branco highway in São Paulo on Wednesday.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesElsewhere across the country, protesters continued to set up highway blockades, creating miles-long backups and disrupting transportation and freight. Those blockades began immediately after the election results on Sunday as part of what protesters said was an effort to “paralyze” Brazil and force the military to intervene. As of Wednesday afternoon, 146 blockades were still active, according to the federal highway police.Around São Paulo, the blockades caused multiple backups totaling more than 60 miles of traffic jams on Wednesday, according to the local traffic agency, and led to the cancellation of 1,400 buses. The disruptions also caused fuel shortages in at least four states.Mr. Bolsonaro released a video late Tuesday, pleading with his supporters to stop blocking the roads, saying it was disrupting lives and hurting the economy. “I am as upset and sad as you are, but we have to put our heads in the right place,” he said. “Other demonstrations that are taking place across Brazil in public squares are part of the democratic game.”“Let’s do what has to be done,” he added. “I’m with you.” He did not directly address the calls for military intervention.The protests were largely nonviolent. The most notable incident was an attack against protesters in Mirassol, a midsize city north of São Paulo, when a car drove into the crowd, injuring 11 people, according to local police. One man was arrested on attempted murder charges, police said.Beyond their insistence that the vote was stolen, the protesters were also driven by their disdain for Mr. da Silva, who has been the most dominant political figure in the 34 years of Brazil’s modern democracy. Universally known as Lula, he has been a top candidate in six of the nine presidential elections over that stretch, winning three.But after his last administration, he also served 17 months in prison on corruption charges, which were later thrown out when the Supreme Court ruled the judge in his cases was biased.He was never cleared of any wrongdoing, however, fueling a belief that he is not to be trusted and making him perhaps a more polarizing force for many Brazilians than Mr. Bolsonaro.Danielle Mota holds a banner calling for intervention in the election outside army headquarters on Wednesday.Dado Galdieri for The New York Times“We don’t want a thug president who robbed, who was arrested, who had various people in his government who looted Brazil,” said Danielle Mota, 43, a hairdresser holding a sign that said “Federal Intervention.”“We do want a military intervention.” she added. “Just like in 1964.”That was the year that the armed forces, with U.S. support, overthrew the government, instituting a military dictatorship for 21 years that killed or tortured thousands of political opponents. Most protesters interviewed on Wednesday at demonstrations in three of the country’s largest cities, Brasília, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, said they wanted Brazil to remain a democracy. But others, faced with Mr. da Silva as president, said it was time for a military government.“Permanently,” said Kenya Oliveira, 38, holding her 4-year-old son.Camila Rocha, a Brazilian political scientist who wrote a book on the radicalization of Brazil’s right, said the calls for the military were the product of years of absorbing Mr. Bolsonaro’s claims that the elections were rigged, combined with fears of a da Silva administration.Mr. da Silva’s leftist Workers’ Party was at the center of a sprawling government kickback scheme that was revealed after he left office in 2010, leading to the imprisonment of many of the party’s top officials. Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies have long called the party corrupt, but they have also falsely framed it as communist.Many on the right view Mr. da Silva “not as an adversary, but as an enemy that needs to be contained,” Ms. Rocha said. “In this sense, there is a strong parallel with the 1964 coup, which was justified precisely to halt the advance of what was thought to be the rise of communism in Brazil.”Many of the protesters said their demands for intervention were supported by Article 142 of the Brazilian Constitution, which says that the military has the role of “guaranteeing constitutional powers” under the “supreme authority of the president.”According to constitutional lawyers and past court rulings, the article does not allow the military to take control of the government.Marco Aurélio Mello, a retired Supreme Court Justice and an outspoken supporter of Mr. Bolsonaro, said the protesters’ interpretation is merely “nostalgia for the authoritarian regime.”He added that instead the protesters had “the losers’ right to whine.”Laís Martins contributed reporting from São Paulo, Flávia Milhorance, Ana Ionova and Leonardo Coelho from Rio de Janeiro, and André Spigariol and Gustavo Freitas from Brasília. 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      Brazil Confronts a Momentous Bolsonaro vs. Lula Election

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      Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday in an election between two political heavyweights that could have global repercussions.RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil on Sunday faces a crossroads.After months of pitches to voters, the nation will decide one of Latin America’s most important elections in decades, picking between the two biggest names in modern Brazilian politics and their polar visions for the country.The choice for Brazilians is whether to give President Jair Bolsonaro a second term, emboldening and empowering him to carry out a far-right mandate for the nation, or whether to bring back former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and return Brazil to a leftist track.Yet the stakes are far higher than simply a contest between the left and the right.The election carries major consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which is crucial to the health of the planet. Mr. Bolsonaro has gutted the agencies tasked with protecting the forest, leading to soaring deforestation, while Mr. da Silva has promised to eradicate illegal logging and mining.Brazil’s economy, once the world’s sixth largest, has flatlined over the past decade. Mr. Bolsonaro pledges to pursue deregulation and privatization to try to jump-start activity, while Mr. da Silva has made his central pitch about feeding and housing the poor, whose numbers have climbed during the pandemic.Mr. da Silva has run on promises to feed and house the poor, and to eradicate illegal logging and mining in the Amazon rain forest.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesThe vote is a test of the enduring strength of the right-wing populism that swept across many countries in recent years. Mr. Bolsonaro is one of the biggest remaining faces of that movement, but he is trying to withstand a recent clear shift to the left across Latin America.And then there is the concern for the health of one of the world’s biggest democracies. Mr. Bolsonaro has spent years attacking Brazil’s democratic institutions, including a sustained effort to undermine its voting system, leading millions of Brazilians to lose faith in the integrity of their nation’s elections.Now, much of the country is wondering: If the president loses the election, will he accept it?After Mr. da Silva led in the first round of voting earlier this month, many polls suggest the race has narrowed. The two men have split this country of 217 million people nearly down the middle, with many voters on each side viewing the choice as an existential one for the nation.“We have a population completely divided between two worlds,” said Malu Gaspar, a political columnist for O Globo, one of Brazil’s biggest newspapers. “So I have a lot of anticipated frustration that this is the most important election of our time, and yet we will come out of it with a lot of more problems than when we went in.”The close race, high stakes and deep polarization have led to an ugly campaign. Misinformation has soared in recent weeks, with supporters of Mr. da Silva accusing Mr. Bolsonaro of being a cannibal and a pedophile, while Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters have called Mr. da Silva a gang leader, a communist and a Satanist who wants to close the nation’s churches.Supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro during a rally at a church square in Rio de Janeiro on Thursday.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesElection officials have tried to intervene, ordering posts and videos off the internet that they say are false. Those efforts have slowed the deluge of misleading information, but they have also become their own controversy, drawing a swell of complaints of unfair refereeing, particularly from Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies.The debates between the two candidates devolved into name calling and disputes over their past versus their plans for the future. And there has been a spate of political violence, with countless beatings and at least two killings connected to the election.This week, the violence and claims of censorship from the right collided when the authorities tried to arrest a right-wing congressman whom the Supreme Court had ordered not to speak publicly because, it said, he had attacked Brazil’s democratic institutions. He responded by shooting at the police and throwing a grenade, injuring two officers. He is now in jail.With a victory on Sunday, Mr. da Silva would complete a stunning political revival. The former shoeshine boy and metalworker with a fifth-grade education rose to become Brazil’s president in 2003. He then used a commodity boom and the discovery of offshore oil to reshape the country, lifting 20 million Brazilians out of extreme poverty. By the time he left office in 2010, he had an 80 percent approval rating.But things quickly turned south for him, his leftist Workers Party and Brazil. His handpicked successor’s interventions into the economy helped plunge Brazil into a recession from which it has never fully recovered, and then a corruption investigation revealed a sprawling kickback scheme that had festered deep inside the Brazilian government under his party’s control.Mr. da Silva in 2018, when a prison sentence for corruption ended his last presidential campaign. His conviction was later overturned. Lalo de Almeida for The New York TimesNearly 300 people were eventually arrested in the scheme, including Mr. da Silva. He was sentenced to 22 years in prison on charges that he accepted a condo and home improvements from companies bidding on government contracts. But after 17 months, he was released and his convictions were later nullified after the Supreme Court ruled that the judge in his cases was biased. While Mr. da Silva was not cleared of wrongdoing, the decision allowed him to run for president again.Mr. Bolsonaro is a former Army captain who served three decades in Congress as a fringe far-right lawmaker known for extreme statements. In 2018, in the wake of Mr. da Silva’s prison sentence, Mr. Bolsonaro rode the global wave of right-wing populism to the presidency, promising to root out what he called the corruption of Brazil’s leftists.His four years since have been tumultuous. He has attacked judges, journalists, political rivals and environmentalists, while also publicly doubting the science behind Covid-19. He pushed unproven drugs during the pandemic and delayed in buying vaccines. The coronavirus killed nearly 700,000 people in Brazil, the second-highest official toll, after the United States.Yet despite the turmoil, Mr. Bolsonaro’s support has endured. He far outperformed polls’ expectations in the first round of voting on Oct. 2, and while recent polls have shown Mr. da Silva still in the lead, Mr. Bolsonaro was within striking distance.The president’s base is a bloc known as “beef, bibles and bullets,” representing people connected to the agribusiness industry, evangelical movement, and law enforcement and the military. Under a slogan of “God, homeland, family and freedom,” he has focused his pitch on warnings about the left trying to change what he calls Brazilians’ traditional way of life.Mr. Bolsonaro as a federal legislator in his office in 2017. Behind him are the portraits of Brazil’s leaders during the military dictatorship.Lalo de Almeida for The New York TimesIn his closing pitch to voters in the first presidential debate this month, Mr. Bolsonaro did not mention the economy, and instead accused the left of wanting to legalize drugs and abortion, abolish private property and force children to learn about “gender ideology” and use unisex bathrooms. “We don’t want a country of retrogression, corruption, thievery and disrespect for our religion,” he said.Mr. da Silva has built a broad coalition in recent months, from the center-right to the far left, with people concerned about what might happen under a second Bolsonaro term. But he has maintained Brazil’ working class as his base and built his platform around taxing the rich and expanding services for the poor. His stump speech has highlighted a promise that all Brazilians deserve a top cut of meat and a cold beer.“Let’s get back to fixing this country, and let’s get back to eating and drinking a beer at weekend barbecues,” he said. Mr. Bolsonaro “goes crazy because he thinks only he can, but we want to eat at the barbecues, too.”The campaign, however, has also had a more worrisome element. For more than a year, Mr. Bolsonaro has warned that he may not accept a loss. He has claimed, without credible evidence, that Brazil’s electronic voting system is rife with fraud and that the left is set on rigging the vote. As a result, three out of four of his supporters say they trust the voting system only a little or not at all.Electoral Court inspectors packing up voting machines after testing them in São Paulo.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesOver the past week, Mr. Bolsonaro has also begun to claim other kinds of fraud. His campaign has accused radio stations of playing far more ads from Mr. da Silva, which would violate election laws, but the evidence the campaign produced was incomplete and quickly shown to be flawed. Brazil’s election chief, whom Mr. Bolsonaro has called biased, dismissed the accusations.Yet Mr. Bolsonaro’s son, a congressman, suggested this week that the vote should be delayed because of the alleged fraud, and Mr. Bolsonaro himself is complaining that it is more proof of an unfair election.“It’s fraud. It interferes with the results of the election,” Mr. Bolsonaro told reporters on Wednesday. “I am a victim once again.”André Spigariol contributed reporting from Brasília. More

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      Lula salió de prisión, y ahora podría volver a ser el presidente de Brasil

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      RÍO DE JANEIRO — En 2019, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva pasaba 23 horas al día en una celda aislada, con una caminadora, de una penitenciaría federal.El expresidente de Brasil fue sentenciado a más de 20 años de prisión por cargos de corrupción; las condenas parecían poner fin a la carrera histórica del hombre que alguna vez fue el león de la izquierda latinoamericana.Ahora, liberado de la prisión, Da Silva está a punto de volver a ganar la presidencia de Brasil, una increíble resurrección política que parecía impensable.El domingo, los brasileños votarán por su próximo líder, y la mayoría elegirá entre el presidente Jair Bolsonaro, de 67 años, el actual mandatario de derecha, y Da Silva, un entusiasta izquierdista de 76 años mejor conocido como “Lula”, cuyas condenas por corrupción fueron anuladas el año pasado luego de que el Supremo Tribunal Federal de Brasil dictaminó que el juez que procesó sus casos no fue imparcial.Durante más de un año, las encuestas han ubicado a Da Silva con una ventaja dominante. Ahora, un aumento en sus números sugiere que podría ganar el domingo con más del 50 por ciento de los votos, lo que evitaría una segunda vuelta con Bolsonaro.Una victoria completaría la extraordinaria travesía de Da Silva, a quien el expresidente Barack Obama una vez calificó como “el político más popular de la Tierra”. Cuando dejó el cargo en 2011 después de dos mandatos, el índice de aprobación de Da Silva superaba el 80 por ciento. Pero luego se convirtió en la pieza central de una extensa investigación sobre sobornos gubernamentales que condujo a casi 300 arrestos, lo llevó a prisión y, aparentemente, acabó con su carrera política.Da Silva se ha comparado con Nelson Mandela, Mahatma Gandhi y Martin Luther King Jr., presos políticos que ampliaron sus movimientos tras ser liberados.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesHoy, el exlíder sindical vuelve a ser el centro de atención, esta vez listo para retomar el poder de la nación más grande de América Latina, con 217 millones de habitantes, y con el mandato de deshacer el legado de Bolsonaro.“¿Cómo intentaron destruir a Lula? Pasé 580 días en la cárcel porque no querían que me postulara”, le dijo Da Silva a una multitud de simpatizantes la semana pasada, con su famosa voz grave que se escucha más ronca debido a la edad y a una campaña agotadora. “Y allí me quedé tranquilo, preparándome como se preparó Mandela durante 27 años”.En la campaña electoral, Da Silva ha comenzado a compararse con Nelson Mandela, Mahatma Gandhi y Martin Luther King Jr., presos políticos que ampliaron sus movimientos después de ser liberados. “Estoy convencido de que sucederá lo mismo en Brasil”, dijo en otro mitin celebrado este mes.El regreso de Da Silva a la presidencia consolidaría su estatus como la figura más influyente en la democracia moderna de Brasil. Se trata de un ex trabajador metalúrgico, con una educación que llegó al quinto grado e hijo de trabajadores agrícolas analfabetos, que durante décadas ha sido una fuerza política, y lideró un cambio transformador en la política brasileña que se aleja de los principios conservadores y se acerca a los ideales de izquierda y los intereses de la clase trabajadora.El Partido de los Trabajadores, un movimiento de izquierda que fundó en 1980, ganó cuatro de las ocho elecciones presidenciales realizadas desde el final de la dictadura militar en 1988, y terminó en segundo lugar en el resto de los comicios.Como presidente de 2003 a 2010, la gestión de Da Silva ayudó a sacar a 20 millones de brasileños de la pobreza, revitalizó la industria petrolera del país y elevó a Brasil en el escenario mundial, llegando a organizar la Copa del Mundo y los Juegos Olímpicos de Verano.Pero también permitió que un gran sistema de sobornos se originara en todo el gobierno, por lo que muchos de sus aliados del Partido de los Trabajadores fueron condenados por aceptar sobornos. Si bien los tribunales desestimaron las dos condenas de Da Silva por aceptar un condominio y renovaciones de empresas constructoras que licitaron contratos gubernamentales, no afirmaron su inocencia.Desde hace mucho tiempo, Da Silva ha afirmado que los cargos son falsos.En general, la campaña de Da Silva se ha construido en torno a la promesa que ha formulado desde hace décadas: mejorar la vida de los pobres de Brasil.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesSi Da Silva gana la presidencia, en parte será gracias a una campaña de la vieja escuela. Recorrió su vasto país realizando mítines presenciales. Y decidió irse por lo seguro: no asistió a un debate el sábado pasado, ha ofrecido pocos detalles sobre sus propuestas, y rechazó la mayoría de las solicitudes de entrevistas, también con The New York Times.Además ha construido una amplia coalición, desde comunistas hasta empresarios, y escogió como su compañero de fórmula a Geraldo Alckmin, un exgobernador de centroderecha que fue su oponente en las elecciones presidenciales de 2006.A Da Silva también le ha beneficiado que se enfrenta a un presidente profundamente impopular. Las encuestas muestran que aproximadamente la mitad de los brasileños dicen que nunca apoyarían a Bolsonaro, quien ha molestado a muchos votantes con un torrente de declaraciones falsas, políticas ambientales destructivas, la adopción de medicamentos no probados en vez de las vacunas contra la COVID-19 y los duros ataques que ha realizado contra rivales políticos, periodistas, jueces y profesionales de la salud.En la campaña electoral, Bolsonaro ha dicho que Da Silva es un ladrón y un comunista, mientras que Da Silva describe al presidente como una persona autoritaria e inhumana.Si es elegido, Da Silva sería el ejemplo más significativo del reciente giro a la izquierda de América Latina. Desde 2018, los movimientos de izquierda han protagonizado una oleada de elecciones contra los políticos en funciones en México, Colombia, Argentina, Chile y Perú.El presidente Jair Bolsonaro de Brasil durante un mitin en Campinas, São Paulo, este mes.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesEn general, la campaña de Da Silva giró en torno a la promesa que ha formulado durante décadas: mejorar la vida de los pobres de Brasil. La pandemia azotó la economía del país, con una inflación que alcanzó los dos dígitos y el número de personas que padecen hambre se duplicó a 33 millones. También se comprometió a ampliar la red de seguridad, aumentar el salario mínimo, reducir la inflación, alimentar y darle vivienda a más personas y crear empleos a través de grandes proyectos de infraestructura.“Fue el presidente antipobreza y ese es el legado que quiere conservar si gana”, dijo Celso Rocha de Barros, un sociólogo que escribió un libro sobre el Partido de los Trabajadores.Sin embargo, como sucede con la mayoría de los políticos exitosos, los discursos de Da Silva suelen ser cortos en detalles y extensos en promesas. Con frecuencia forja su retórica en torno a un enfrentamiento entre “ellos”, las élites, y “nosotros”, el pueblo. Porta sus credenciales de la clase trabajadora en la mano izquierda porque a los 19 años perdió su dedo meñique en una fábrica de autopartes. Y transmite su mensaje de hombre común, con muchas referencias a la cerveza, la cachaza y la picaña, el corte de carne más famoso de Brasil.“Piensan que los pobres no tienen derechos”, dijo la semana pasada frente a una multitud de simpatizantes en uno de los barrios más pobres de São Paulo. Y aseguró que él lucharía por sus derechos. “Vamos a volver a tener el derecho de hacer un asadito en familia el fin de semana, de comprar una picanhazinha, de comer ese pedacito de picanha con su grasa pasado por harina, y un vaso de cerveza fría”, gritó entre vítores.“Es el candidato del pueblo, de los pobres”, dijo Vivian Casentino, de 44 años, una cocinera vestida con el color rojo del Partido de los Trabajadores, en un mitin celebrado esta semana en Río de Janeiro. “Él es como nosotros. Es un luchador”.En su primer período como presidente, Da Silva utilizó el auge de las materias primas para financiar la expansión de su gobierno. Esta vez, la economía de Brasil está en un estado más precario y él propone impuestos más altos para los ricos con el fin de financiar más beneficios para los pobres. Algunos votantes están incómodos con sus planes después de que las políticas económicas de su sucesora, elegida por él, hicieron que Brasil entrara en una recesión.Aunque su estilo político no ha cambiado en su sexta campaña presidencial, ha tratado de modernizar su imagen. Ha incluido más referencias a las mujeres, los negros, los pueblos indígenas y el medioambiente en sus discursos y propuestas, e incluso prometió abogar por las “ensaladas orgánicas”.Maria da Silva, de 58 años, llora mientras muestra el refrigerador vacío en la casa abandonada en la que vive con su familia de ocho integrantes en Ibimirim, Brasil, el mes pasado. No tiene relación con el expresidente.Carl De Souza/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesEn una reunión reciente con personas influyentes de las redes sociales, incluido el youtuber más popular del país, un comediante ingenioso y un rapero con tatuajes en la cara, Da Silva los instó a contrarrestar las sugerencias de que era corrupto.“Globo pasó cinco años llamándome ladrón”, dijo, refiriéndose a la cadena de televisión más grande de Brasil. Dijo que deseaba que el presentador principal del canal abriera el noticiero alguna noche pidiéndole perdón. “Las disculpas son difíciles”, agregó.Da Silva nunca ha reconocido completamente el papel del Partido de los Trabajadores en el esquema de corrupción del gobierno que persistió durante gran parte de los 13 años que estuvo en el poder. La investigación, llamada Operación Lava Jato, reveló cómo las empresas pagaron cientos de millones de dólares en sobornos a funcionarios gubernamentales a cambio de contratos públicos.Da Silva dice que sus enemigos políticos lo incriminaron para eliminar al Partido de los Trabajadores de la política brasileña. También acusó al gobierno de Estados Unidos de ayudar a impulsar la investigación.La investigación finalmente se vio envuelta en su propio escándalo porque se demostró que fue utilizada como una herramienta política. Los fiscales se centraron en los delitos del Partido de los Trabajadores por encima de otros partidos, y los investigadores filtraron las conversaciones grabadas de Da Silva. Más tarde se reveló que Sergio Moro, el juez federal encargado del caso, estaba en connivencia con los fiscales, al mismo tiempo que actuaba como el único árbitro en muchos de los juicios.Da Silva tras salir de prisión en 2019.Rodolfo Buhrer/ReutersEn 2019, Da Silva fue excarcelado después de que el Supremo Tribunal Federal dictaminó que podía estar libre mientras presentaba las apelaciones. Luego, el año pasado, el tribunal desestimó sus condenas y determinó que fueron juzgadas en el tribunal equivocado y que Moro no fue imparcial.Da Silva es impulsado por un culto a la personalidad, construido durante más de cuatro décadas a la vista del público, y es mucho más popular que el partido político que construyó.Creomar de Souza, un analista político brasileño, dijo que las democracias inmaduras a menudo pueden girar en torno a una sola personalidad en vez de un movimiento o conjunto de ideas. “Algunas democracias jóvenes luchan por dar un paso adelante”, dijo. “Un individuo se convierte en una parte crucial del juego”.En un mitin de Da Silva convocado en Río esta semana, Vinicius Rodrigues, un estudiante de historia de 28 años, estaba repartiendo volantes para el partido comunista. “Apoyamos a Lula específicamente”, dijo, pero no al Partido de los Trabajadores.Cerca de allí, Luiz Cláudio Costa, de 55 años, vendía cintas para la cabeza que decían “Estoy con Lula” a 50 centavos de dólar. Siempre había votado por Da Silva, pero en 2018 eligió a Bolsonaro. “Me equivoqué”, dijo. “Necesitamos que Lula regrese”.Da Silva es impulsado por un culto a la personalidad, construido durante más de cuatro décadas a la vista del público.Dado Galdieri para The New York Times More

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      Brazil’s Lula Is Out of Prison and Trying to Defeat Bolsonaro

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      RIO DE JANEIRO — In 2019, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was spending 23 hours a day in an isolated cell with a treadmill in a federal penitentiary.The former president of Brazil was sentenced to 22 years on corruption charges, a conviction that appeared to end the storied career of the man who had once been the lion of the Latin American left.Now, freed from prison, Mr. da Silva is on the brink of becoming Brazil’s president once again, an incredible political resurrection that at one time seemed unthinkable.On Sunday, Brazilians will vote for their next leader, with most choosing between President Jair Bolsonaro, 67, the right-wing nationalist incumbent, and Mr. da Silva, 76, a zealous leftist known simply as “Lula,” whose corruption convictions were annulled last year after Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled that the judge in his cases was biased.For more than a year, polls have shown Mr. da Silva with a commanding lead. Now a surge in his numbers suggest he could win outright on Sunday with more than 50 percent of the vote, avoiding a runoff with Mr. Bolsonaro.A victory would complete a remarkable journey for Mr. da Silva, whom former President Barack Obama once called “the most popular politician on Earth.” When he left office in 2011 after two terms, Mr. da Silva’s approval rating topped 80 percent. But then he became the centerpiece of a sprawling investigation into government bribes that led to nearly 300 arrests, landing him in prison and seemingly destined for obscurity.Mr. da Silva has taken to comparing himself to Nelson Mandela, Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr., political prisoners who expanded their movements after they were freed.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesToday, the former union leader is back in the spotlight, this time poised to retake the wheel of Latin America’s largest nation, at 217 million people, with a mandate to undo Mr. Bolsonaro’s legacy.“How did they try to destroy Lula? I spent 580 days in jail because they didn’t want me to run,” Mr. da Silva told a crowd of supporters last week, his famously gravelly voice even hoarser with age and a grueling campaign. “And I stayed calm there, preparing myself like Mandela prepared for 27 years.”On the campaign trail, Mr. da Silva has taken to comparing himself to Nelson Mandela, Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr., political prisoners who expanded their movements after they were freed. “I am convinced the same thing will happen here in Brazil,” he said at a separate rally this month.Mr. da Silva’s return to the president’s office would cement his status as the most influential figure in Brazil’s modern democracy. A former metalworker with a fifth-grade education and the son of illiterate farm workers, he has been a political force for decades, leading a transformational shift in Brazilian politics away from conservative principles and toward leftist ideals and working-class interests.The leftist Workers’ Party he co-founded in 1980 has won four of the eight presidential elections since the end of Brazil’s military dictatorship in 1988, while finishing as the runner-up in the rest.As president from 2003 through 2010, Mr. da Silva’s administration helped lift 20 million Brazilians out of poverty, revitalized the nation’s oil industry and elevated Brazil on the world stage, including by hosting the World Cup and Summer Olympics.But it also allowed a vast kickback scheme to fester throughout the government, with many of his Workers’ Party allies convicted of accepting bribes. While the courts threw out Mr. da Silva’s two convictions of accepting a condo and renovations from construction companies bidding on government contracts, they did not affirm his innocence.Mr. da Silva has long maintained that the charges were false.Overall, Mr. da Silva’s campaign has been built around the promise he has been pitching for decades: He will make life better for Brazil’s poor. Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesIf Mr. da Silva wins the presidency, it will be in part thanks to an old-school campaign. He has toured the vast country holding in-person rallies. He has played it safe, skipping a debate last Saturday, offering few specifics in his proposals and declining most interview requests, including with The New York Times.And he has built a broad coalition, from communists to businessmen, selecting a former center-right governor as his running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, who had been his opponent in the 2006 presidential election.Mr. da Silva has also benefited from a matchup with a deeply unpopular incumbent. Polls show that about half of Brazilians say they would never support Mr. Bolsonaro, who has upset many voters with a torrent of false statements, destructive environmental policies, an embrace of unproven drugs over Covid-19 vaccines and harsh attacks against political rivals, journalists, judges and health professionals.On the campaign trail, Mr. Bolsonaro has called Mr. da Silva a crook and a communist, while Mr. da Silva describes the president as authoritarian and inhumane.If elected, Mr. da Silva would be the most significant example yet of Latin America’s recent shift to the left. Since 2018, leftists have ridden an anti-incumbent wave into office in Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Chile and Peru.On the campaign trail, President Jair Bolsonaro has called Mr. da Silva a crook and a communist.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesOverall, Mr. da Silva’s campaign has been built around the promise he has been pitching for decades: He will make life better for Brazil’s poor. The pandemic battered Brazil’s economy, with inflation reaching double digits and the number of people facing hunger doubling to 33 million. He has pledged to widen the safety net, increase the minimum wage, lower inflation, feed and house more people and create jobs through big new infrastructure projects.“He was the anti-poverty president, and that’s the legacy he wants to keep if he wins,” said Celso Rocha de Barros, a sociologist who wrote a book about the Workers’ Party.Yet, like most successful politicians, Mr. da Silva’s speeches are often short on details and long on promises. He frequently builds his rhetoric around a clash between “they,” the elites, and “we,” the people. He wears his working-class credentials on his left hand; he lost his pinkie at 19 in an auto-parts factory. And he carries his message with his Everyman image, complete with plenty of references to beer, cachaça and picanha, Brazil’s most famous cut of meat.“They think that the poor don’t have rights,” he told a crowd of supporters in one of São Paulo’s poorest neighborhoods last week. But he would fight for their rights, he said. “The right to barbecue with family on the weekend, to buy a little picanha, to that piece of picanha with the fat dipped in flour, and to a glass of cold beer,” he shouted to cheers.“He’s the candidate of the people, of the poor,” said Vivian Casentino, 44, a cook draped in the red of the Workers’ Party, at a rally this week in Rio de Janeiro. “He’s like us. He’s a fighter.”In his first stint as president, Mr. da Silva used a commodities boom to pay for his expansion of government. This time around, Brazil’s economy is in rougher shape, and he is proposing higher taxes on the rich to fund more benefits for the poor. Some voters are uneasy with his plans after his handpicked successor’s economic policies helped lead Brazil into a recession.While his political style has not changed in his sixth presidential campaign, he has tried to modernize his image. He has included more references to women, Black people, Indigenous groups and the environment in his speeches and proposals, and even promised to advocate for “organic salads.”Maria da Silva, 58, cries while showing the empty fridge at the abandoned house in which she lives with her family of eight in Ibimirim, Brazil, last month. She has no relation to Mr. da Silva.Carl De Souza/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAt a recent meeting with social-media influencers, including the nation’s most popular YouTuber, a sharp-witted comedian and a rapper with face tattoos, Mr. da Silva urged them to counter suggestions that he was corrupt.“Globo spent five years calling me a thief,” he said, referring to Brazil’s biggest TV network. He said he wished the channel’s lead anchor would open the newscast one night by saying sorry. “Apologies are hard,” he added.Mr. da Silva has never fully acknowledged the role of his Workers’ Party in the government corruption scheme that persisted for much of the 13 years it was in power. The investigation, called Operation Carwash, revealed how companies paid hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes to government officials in exchange for public contracts.Mr. da Silva says that political enemies framed him to eliminate the Workers’ Party from Brazilian politics. He has also accused the U.S. government of helping to drive the investigation.The Carwash investigation was eventually engulfed in its own scandal, as it became clear that it had been used as a political tool. Prosecutors focused on the crimes of the Workers’ Party over other parties, and investigators leaked Mr. da Silva’s taped conversations. Sergio Moro, the federal judge overseeing the case, was later revealed to be colluding with prosecutors, while also acting as the sole arbiter in many of the trials.Mr. da Silva after being released from prison in 2019.Rodolfo Buhrer/ReutersIn 2019, Mr. da Silva was released from prison after the Supreme Court ruled he could be free while pursuing appeals. Then, last year, the Supreme Court threw out his convictions, ruling that they were tried in the wrong court and that Mr. Moro was biased.Mr. da Silva is carried by a cult of personality, built over more than four decades in the public eye, and he is far more popular than the political party he built. Creomar de Souza, a Brazilian political analyst, said immature democracies can often revolve around a single personality rather than a movement or set of ideas. “Some young democracies struggle to take a step forward,” he said. “An individual becomes a crucial part of the game.”At a rally for Mr. da Silva in Rio this week, Vinicius Rodrigues, 28, a history student, was handing out fliers for a communist party. “We support Lula specifically,” he said, but not the Workers’ Party.Nearby, Luiz Claudio Costa, 55, was selling “I’m with Lula” headbands for 50 cents. He had always voted for Mr. da Silva, but in 2018, he chose Mr. Bolsonaro. “I got it wrong,” he said. “We need Lula back.”Mr. da Silva is carried by a cult of personality, built over more than four decades in the public eye.Dado Galdieri for The New York Times More