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    I.M.F. Says Inflation Fight Is Largely Over but Warns of New Threats

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    The International Monetary Fund said protectionism and new trade wars could weigh on growth.The global economy has managed to avoid falling into a recession even though the world’s central banks have raised interest rates to their highest levels in years to try to tame rapid inflation, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.But the I.M.F., in a new report, also cautioned that escalating violence in the Middle East and the prospect of a new round of trade wars stemming from political developments in the United States remain significant threats.New economic forecasts released by the fund on Tuesday showed that the global fight against soaring prices has largely been won: Global output is expected to hold steady at 3.2 percent this year and next. Fears of a widespread post-pandemic contraction have been averted, but the fund warned that many countries still face a challenging mix of high debt and sluggish growth.The report was released as finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world convened in Washington for the annual meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank. The gathering is taking place two weeks ahead of a presidential election in the United States that could result in a major shift toward protectionism and tariffs if former President Donald J. Trump is elected.Mr. Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs of as much as 50 percent, most likely setting off retaliation and trade wars. Economists think that could fuel price increases and slow growth, possibly leading to a recession.“Fear of a Trump presidency will loudly reverberate behind the scenes,” said Mark Sobel, a former Treasury official who is now the U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Mr. Sobel said global policymakers would probably be wondering what another Trump presidency would “mean for the future of multilateralism, international cooperation, U.S.-China stresses and their worldwide ripples, and global trade and finance, among others.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      $29 Trillion: That’s How Much Debt Emerging Nations Are Facing

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      A decades-long crisis is getting worse, and now dozens of nations are spending more on interest payments than on health care or education.The Vatican’s meeting on the global debt crisis last week was not quite as celebrity-studded as the one that Pope John Paul II presided over 25 years ago, when he donned sunglasses given to him by Bono, U2’s lead singer.But the message that the current pope, Francis, delivered this time — to a roomful of bankers and economists instead of rock stars — was the same: The world’s poorest countries are being crushed by unmanageable debt and richer nations need to do more to help.Emerging nations are contending with a staggering $29 trillion in public debt. Fifteen countries are spending more on interest payments than they do on education, according to a new report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development; 46 spend more on debt payments than they do on health care.Unmanageable debts have been a recurring feature of the modern global economy, but the current wave may well be the worst so far. Overall, government debt worldwide is four times higher than what it was in 2000.Government overspending or mismanagement is one cause, but global events out of most nations’ control have pushed their debt problems into overdrive. The Covid-19 pandemic slashed business profits and worker incomes at the same time health care and relief costs were increasing. Violent conflicts in Ukraine and elsewhere contributed to rising energy and food prices. Central banks raised interest rates to combat soaring inflation. Global growth slowed.Pope Francis earlier this week in Rome.Fabio Frustaci/EPA, via ShutterstockWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      I.M.F. Sees Steady Growth but Warns of Rising Protectionism

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      The International Monetary Fund offered an upbeat economic outlook but said that new trade barriers and escalating wars could worsen inflation.The global economy is approaching a soft landing after several years of geopolitical and economic turmoil, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. But it warned that risks remain, including stubborn inflation, the threat of escalating global conflicts and rising protectionism.In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the I.M.F. projected global output to hold steady at 3.2 percent in 2024, unchanged from 2023. Although the pace of the expansion is tepid by historical standards, the I.M.F. said that global economic activity has been surprisingly resilient given that central banks aggressively raised interest rates to tame inflation and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East further disrupt supply chains.The forecasts came as policymakers from around the world began arriving in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The outlook is brighter from just a year ago, when the I.M.F. was warning of underlying “turbulence” and a multitude of risks.Although the world economy has proved to be durable over the last year, defying predictions of a recession, there are lingering concerns that price pressures have not been sufficiently contained and that new trade barriers will be erected amid anxiety over a recent surge of cheap Chinese exports.“Somewhat worryingly, progress toward inflation targets has somewhat stalled since the beginning of the year,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, wrote in an essay that accompanied the report. “Oil prices have been rising recently in part due to geopolitical tensions and services inflation remains stubbornly high.”He added: “Further trade restrictions on Chinese exports could also push up goods inflation.”The gathering is taking place at a time of growing tension between the United States and China over a surge of Chinese green energy products, such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar panels, that are flooding global markets. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen returned last week from a trip to China, where she told her counterparts that Beijing’s industrial policy was harming American workers. She warned that the United States could pursue trade restrictions to protect investments in America’s solar and electric vehicle industries.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      New World Bank business ratings will examine countries’ worker rights

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      New methods and safeguards for assessing the business and investment climate in as many as 180 countries could give governments and citizens around the world “a common language for deciding where they’re going and how they get there”, according to spokespeople for the recently unveiled project.The World Bank announced last month that it was preparing to implement new Business Ready rankings after eliminating the predecessor Doing Business ratings in September 2021, citing internal reviews as well as an outside investigation which found senior leaders at the organization had exerted pressure on subordinates to manipulate data to favor China.Other nations whose rankings were similarly boosted included Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan and the United Arab Emirates. And the Guardian reported in April that World Bank staff were instructed to afford preferential treatment to the son of a high-ranking Donald Trump White House official after the US treasury backed a $13bn (£10bn) hike in funding for the United Nations-affiliated organization.Set to debut in the spring of 2024, Business Ready’s pilot edition aims to cover an initial group of 54 economies in Asia, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, according to the bank. The bank plans to add more countries as it refines its methodologies, which for the first time call for examining a country’s records pertaining to workers’ rights, as defined by the International Labor Organization.Assessments of women’s and gender rights as well as examinations of culture in general are also being implemented as the World Bank eventually hopes to be able to rank economies on the local and regional level, said Kasey Henderson, whose Washington DC-based Global Situation Room firm is working with the bank on Business Ready’s messaging.“This really is the World Bank’s flagship economic benchmarking exercise and one that I think they really want to be kind of a marker … along a path towards prosperity at a society level, encompassing more than just the business environment,” Henderson added recently. “That piece helps give really unique insights and information for countries as they continue working to grow their economies … and attract and retain business.”World Bank experts, governments, private sector members and civil society groups helped shape Business Ready’s new criteria, whose overarching goal is to create a dataset whose integrity is beyond reproach while also bringing complex economic issues around the world to a broader audience. Officials at the organization had not yet decided whether it would rank countries’ business climates or simply put out an overall index, though they expected to resolve that before the first of the new reports.Whatever the case, the World Bank anticipated that other areas assessed by Business Ready would include worker safety, environmental sustainability and market competition, rather than just viewing everything from what Norman Loayza – the director of the bank’s Indicators Group – called “the perspective of the private entrepreneur”.The Global Situation Room’s Brett Bruen added that Business Ready could ultimately produce “a common language for [countries’] deciding where they’re going and how they get there”.“The notion is that every country in the world is at various stages of readiness, and these reports – which are exhaustively researched and put together – would show how that readiness lines up to opportunities and their own goals.”Reuters contributed reporting More

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      Joe Biden nominates former Mastercard boss Ajay Banga to lead World Bank

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      Joe Biden nominates former Mastercard boss Ajay Banga to lead World BankUS president puts forward choice to oversee new focus on climate crisis after resignation of Trump appointee David MalpassJoe Biden has nominated a former boss of Mastercard with decades of experience on Wall Street to lead the World Bank and oversee a shake-up at the development organisation to shift its focus to the climate crisis.The US president’s choice of Ajay Banga, an American citizen born in India, comes a week after David Malpass, a Donald Trump appointee, quit the role.The World Bank’s governing body is expected to make a decision in May, but the US is the Washington-based organisation’s largest shareholder and has traditionally been allowed to nominate without challenge its preferred candidate for the post.Malpass, who is due to step down on 30 June, was nominated by Trump in February 2019 and took up the post officially that April. He is known to have lost the confidence of Biden’s head of the US Treasury, Janet Yellen, who with other shareholders wanted to expand the bank’s development remit to include the climate crisis and other global challenges.Malpass upset the Biden administration when he appeared to question the extent to which humans had contributed to global heating.World Bank chief resigns after climate stance misstepRead moreBiden said he wanted Banga to use his decades of experience on Wall Street to support private-sector lending to countries in the developing world.“Ajay is uniquely equipped to lead the World Bank at this critical moment in history. He has spent more than three decades building and managing successful, global companies that create jobs and bring investment to developing economies, and guiding organisations through periods of fundamental change,” the president said.“He has a proven track record managing people and systems, and partnering with global leaders around the world to deliver results,” he added.Anti-poverty groups are expected to question Banga’s commitment to fighting the climate crisis using private sector funds. Several countries have defaulted on foreign loans, in effect declaring themselves bankrupt, and are locked in negotiations with banks and other private-sector lenders to reduce their debts.The World Bank said the first criterion for a future president was “a proven track record of leadership and accomplishment, particularly in development”.Banga has recently joined several bodies as a climate adviser. He became vice-chairman of General Atlantic’s climate-focused fund, BeyondNetZero, at its inception in 2021.Raised in India, Banga is expected to appeal to many developing world leaders as an executive bringing financial acumen to the job and a strong relationship to the Biden administration.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe World Bank’s board has rebutted previous criticism of its commitment to reducing global heating, saying that climate finance doubled under Malpass from $14bn (£12bn) in 2019 to $32bn last year.John Kerry, Biden’s climate envoy, said Banga was “the right choice to take on the responsibilities of the World Bank at this critical moment”.He said it would allow the World Bank to “mobilise capital to power the green transition”.Manish Bapna, chief executive of the research organisation, the Natural Resources Defense Council, said Banga would need to be a “transformative leader with a clear vision for ambitious climate action” who must prevent the world’s most vulnerable people from being “forced to pay a price they can’t afford for a crisis they didn’t cause”.TopicsWorld BankGlobal economyJoe BidenBiden administrationUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      Trump pick for World Bank chief makes early exit after climate stance misstep

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      Trump pick for World Bank chief makes early exit after climate stance misstepDavid Malpass’ decision comes after running afoul of White House for failing to say whether he accepts global warming consensus World Bank president David Malpass on Wednesday said he would leave his post by the end of June, months after running afoul of the White House for failing to say whether he accepts the scientific consensus on global warming.Malpass, appointed by Donald Trump, will vacate the helm of the multilateral development bank, which provides billions of dollars a year in funding for developing economies, with less than a year remaining in a five-year term. He offered no specific reason for the move, saying in a statement, “after a good deal of thought, I’ve decided to pursue new challenges”.Treasury secretary Janet Yellen thanked Malpass for his service in a statement, saying: “The world has benefited from his strong support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion, his vital work to assist the Afghan people, and his commitment to helping low-income countries achieve debt sustainability through debt reduction.”Yellen said the United States would soon nominate a replacement for Malpass and looked forward to the bank’s board undertaking a “transparent, merit-based and swift nomination process for the next World Bank president”.By long-standing tradition, the US government selects the head of the World Bank, while European leaders choose the leader of its larger partner, the International Monetary Fund (IMF).Pressure to shake up the leadership of the World Bank to pave the way for a new president who would reform the bank to more aggressively respond to climate change has been building for over two years from the United Nations, other world leaders and environmental groups.In November 2021, special adviser to the UN secretary-general on climate change Selwin Hart called out the World Bank for “fiddling while the developing world burns” and said that the institution has been an “ongoing underperformer” on climate action.Pressure on Malpass was reignited last September when the World Bank chief fumbled answering a question about whether he believed in the scientific consensus around climate change, which drew condemnation from the White House.In November, special envoy on climate change John Kerry said he wants to work with Germany to come up with a strategy by the next World Bank Group meetings in April 2022 to “enlarge the capacity of the bank” to put more money into circulation and help countries deal with climate change.More recently, Yellen has launched a major push to reform the way the World Bank operates to ensure broader lending to combat climate change and other global challenges.Malpass took up the World Bank helm in April 2019 after serving as the top official for international affairs at US treasury in the Trump administration. In 2022, the World Bank committed more than $104bn to projects around the globe, according to the bank’s annual report.A source familiar with his thinking said Malpass had informed Yellen of his decision on Tuesday.The end of the fiscal year at the end of June was a natural time to step aside, the source said. The World Bank’s governors are expected to approve the bank’s roadmap for reforms with only minor changes at the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank set for mid-April.Still, World Bank sources said they were surprised by his decision to step down before the joint meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Morocco in October.TopicsWorld BankEconomicsGlobal economyUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      in Elections

      Elecciones en Costa Rica: una contienda reñida entre acusaciones de acoso sexual y corrupción

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      En la segunda vuelta, programada para el domingo, los votantes decidirán entre un candidato acusado de acoso sexual en el Banco Mundial y un expresidente que una vez fue acusado de corrupción.SAN JOSÉ, Costa Rica — Fue degradado de un alto cargo a uno menor en el Banco Mundial por acoso sexual. Ahora, el economista Rodrigo Chaves —quien ha hecho campaña como un populista al margen del sistema político en unas elecciones empañadas por la ira contra los políticos tradicionales— lidera las encuestas para convertirse en el próximo presidente de Costa Rica el domingo.Es un ascenso inesperado a la prominencia en un país que ha asumido un papel de liderazgo en el avance de los derechos sociales en Centroamérica, lo que subraya cómo el deseo de castigar a las élites políticas por lo que consideran respuestas gubernamentales inadecuadas a los desafíos de la región opaca la mayoría de los otros asuntos.En 2019, el Banco Mundial reprendió a Chaves por lo que se demostró que era un patrón de conducta sexual inapropiada contra subalternas, aunque los detalles de su comportamiento solo se hicieron públicos en agosto en un periódico de Costa Rica, información que el candidato presidencial ha refutado en diversas ocasiones.La negación de Chaves y la minimización de un historial documentado de acoso sexual se producen dos años después de que otro político costarricense, el expresidente y premio Nobel de la Paz, Óscar Arias Sánchez, evitara por poco ser procesado por abuso sexual, en un escándalo que sacudió al país.Arias fue acusado en 2019 de agresión sexual o conducta inapropiada por al menos nueve mujeres, emergiendo como uno de los casos más significativos del #MeToo en América Latina. Sin embargo, en diciembre de 2020, se retiraron los cargos presentados contra él por dos de las mujeres.Una protesta contra Óscar Arias Sánchez, premio Nobel de la Paz y expresidente de Costa Rica, quien fue acusado de agresión sexual en 2019.Juan Carlos Ulate/ReutersLos grupos de derechos de género dicen ahora que la apuesta de Chaves por el poder amenaza con socavar el progreso en la nación más liberal e igualitaria de Centroamérica.“El mensaje que están mandando a la sociedad es que el abuso sexual es algo menor, no es algo grave”, dijo Larissa Arroyo, una abogada de derechos humanos costarricense. “Esta campaña está normalizando y legitimando el abuso”.Chaves y su oficina de prensa no respondieron a una solicitud de entrevista.Chaves languidecía en la oscuridad hasta su alianza con Pilar Cisneros, una prominente periodista costarricense, que lo presentó a los votantes costarricenses como un gerente experimentado que le haría frente a la corrupción.Justo un día después de que Cisneros se uniera a la campaña de Chaves en agosto, el periódico local La Nación hizo pública la investigación del Banco Mundial que descubrió que había demostrado un patrón de acoso sexual contra empleadas júnior entre 2008 y 2013.Chaves respondió restando importancia a los hallazgos: “Ya están demostrando el miedo de la candidatura de Rodrigo Chaves los que tienen secuestrado a este país”, dijo en un mensaje en video publicado en las redes sociales horas después de la publicación del artículo.Las revelaciones apenas perjudicaron la campaña de Chaves. Cuando se reveló la investigación, Chaves solo contaba con un dos por ciento en las encuestas. En la primera vuelta de las elecciones nacionales, celebrada en febrero, había obtenido suficientes votos para pasar a la segunda vuelta presidencial.Candidatos presidenciales costarricenses durante un debate televisado previo a las elecciones de primera vuelta, que se celebraron en febrero.Mayela Lopez/ReutersCisneros salió en defensa de Chaves, ayudándolo a protegerse de los plenos efectos de las revelaciones. “¿Ustedes creen que Pilar Cisneros hubiera apoyado a un acosador sexual?”, dijo a los medios locales en enero. Al mes siguiente, ganó un escaño en el Congreso por el partido de Chaves.En vísperas de la votación final del domingo, la Universidad de Costa Rica encontró que Chaves tenía una estrecha ventaja sobre su oponente, el expresidente José María Figueres. En una encuesta realizada con 1000 votantes llevada a cabo por la universidad del 24 al 28 de marzo, Chaves lideró por 3,4 puntos porcentuales, ligeramente por arriba del margen de error de la encuesta de 3,1 por ciento.Otra encuesta publicada el 1 de marzo por la universidad reveló que solo el 13 por ciento de los votantes pensaba que las acusaciones de acoso contra Chaves eran falsas. Pero el 45 por ciento dijo que las acusaciones no influirían en su voto.Chaves se ha beneficiado de la impopularidad de Figueres, su oponente, quien se ha visto salpicado por acusaciones de corrupción durante su primer mandato en la década de 1990. Figueres, quien lidera el mayor y más antiguo partido político del país, el Partido Liberación Nacional, está acusado de recibir pagos a principios de la década de 2000 de una empresa de telecomunicaciones francesa a cambio de un trato preferente mientras era presidente.Figueres ha negado las acusaciones y los fiscales que investigaron los pagos, que se produjeron tras el fin de su mandato, no presentaron cargos.Sin embargo, a los ojos de muchos costarricenses, Figueres y su partido han llegado a representar la venalidad y el elitismo del sistema político nacional, que muchos creen que ya no es capaz de resolver los problemas económicos del país, dijo Ronald Alfaro, quien dirige el Centro de Investigación y Estudios Políticos de la Universidad de Costa Rica.José María Figueres, el candidato presidencial por el Partido Liberación Nacional, celebra luego de avanzar a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Costa Rica en febrero.Arnoldo Robert/Getty ImagesLa economía costarricense, dependiente del turismo, se vio muy afectada por la pandemia: en 2020, su producto interior bruto experimentó la mayor caída en cuatro décadas. Aunque gran parte de la economía se recuperó, el país ahora tiene dificultades para frenar el aumento de los precios de los alimentos y el combustible.“Las acusaciones acaban anulándose mutuamente”, dijo. “Los votantes acaban votando no por el candidato que les gusta, sino contra el que creen que tiene más pulgas que el otro”, dijo.Decepcionados por los escándalos que rodean a ambos candidatos, la mayoría de los costarricenses parecen haber perdido el interés en las elecciones. Solo una cuarta parte de los electores registrados votaron por Chaves o Figueres en la primera ronda de las elecciones, que se vio empañada por la participación más baja de los últimos 70 años.Documentos del tribunal interno del Banco Mundial y del sindicato muestran que Chaves fue sancionado en 2019 después de que dos empleadas presentaran denuncias de acoso. En ese momento, era el jefe de país del banco para Indonesia, un puesto de nivel de director que supervisa miles de millones de dólares de préstamos a una de las mayores economías en desarrollo del mundo.Costarricenses rumbo a los centros de votación de San José en las elecciones generales que se realizaron en febrero.Ezequiel Becerra/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesLas mujeres afirmaron que Chaves intentó besar en la boca a las empleadas de menor rango, hizo comentarios sexuales sobre su apariencia y realizó repetidas invitaciones no deseadas a habitaciones de hotel y cenas. Las identidades de las mujeres no se han hecho públicas.Una de las mujeres, que estaba subordinada a Chaves, declaró al tribunal que este “comentó que le gustaba que ella se agachara, y luego procedió a dejar caer un objeto y a pedirle que lo recogiera para él”, petición que, dijo, rechazó.Chaves fue degradado y se le congeló el sueldo, pero el banco no llegó a calificar explícitamente su comportamiento de acoso sexual. Dejó la organización días después y regresó a su Costa Rica natal para convertirse en el ministro de Hacienda del presidente Carlos Alvarado.El Ministerio de Comunicación de Costa Rica dijo que el actual gobierno no había tenido conocimiento del caso de acoso y que Chaves le dijo a sus integrantes que volvió porque deseaba pasar su jubilación con su madre de edad avanzada.A los seis meses, Chaves dejó su puesto en el ministerio y anunció una candidatura presidencial con un partido político poco conocido, prometiendo “devolver el poder a los ciudadanos” mediante la celebración de consultas populares sobre temas políticos importantes.A pesar de la salida de Chaves del Banco Mundial, quienes lo acusaron presentaron un recurso ante el tribunal interno para que revisara la investigación de mala conducta del banco.Mujeres se manifestaron en el Día Internacional de la Mujer en San José, en marzoMayela Lopez/Reuters“Los hechos del presente caso indican que la conducta del señor C. era de naturaleza sexual y que sabía o debería haber sabido que su conducta no era bienvenida”, dijo el tribunal en su fallo de junio. Un funcionario del Banco Mundial dijo que el banco no discutía los hechos del caso tal y como se presentaban en la sentencia.Incluso antes de que se emitiera la sentencia, en enero de 2021, la organización prohibió a Chaves la entrada en sus instalaciones y le impuso una prohibición de recontratación. La organización hermana del banco, el Fondo Monetario Internacional, dijo que también restringió el acceso de Chaves a sus instalaciones.En los meses transcurridos, Chaves ha negado o tergiversado las conclusiones; en su lugar, ha afirmado que el Banco Mundial encontró poco más que una acusación contra él, refiriéndose a la decisión inicial del banco de no calificar sus malas acciones de acoso sexual.También ha dicho que puede visitar libremente las oficinas del Banco Mundial —contradiciendo la prohibición del banco de acceder a sus oficinas— y que como presidente seguirá haciendo negocios con el banco, que tiene 2300 millones de dólares en préstamos pendientes en Costa Rica.Chaves también prometió que “revisará” una reciente flexibilización de las restricciones a la fecundación in vitro y al aborto. El aborto es legal en Costa Rica cuando el embarazo pone en peligro la salud de la mujer.Estas medidas amenazan con desbaratar los lentos pero notables avances en los derechos reproductivos de las mujeres bajo los últimos gobiernos, dijo Arroyo, la abogada de derechos humanos. Dijo que las propuestas también dañan el papel de Costa Rica en el avance de los derechos sociales en una región profundamente conservadora desde el punto de vista social, donde el aborto está ampliamente prohibido y donde la violencia contra las mujeres queda mayormente impune.El Erizo, un barrio de bajos recursos, y el moderno vecindario de Ciruelas, en la provincia de Alajuela, Costa Rica.Luis Acosta/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesLa estabilidad política y la sólida democracia de Costa Rica han sido durante mucho tiempo una excepción en una región dominada por el autoritarismo y el crimen organizado, y el país ha alcanzado uno de los niveles más altos de inclusión social de América Latina, desde el acceso a la educación y la atención sanitaria hasta los derechos civiles.“Si Costa Rica cae en los derechos de las mujeres, lo más probable es que todos los demás vecinos también no tengan este referente para poder seguir avanzando”, dijo Arroyo.Anatoly Kurmanaev es un corresponsal radicado en Ciudad de México desde donde cubre México, Centroamérica y el Caribe. Antes de integrarse a la corresponsalía de México en 2021, pasó ocho años reportando desde Caracas sobre Venezuela y la región vecina. @akurmanaev More

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      in Elections

      Harassment Case Tests Women’s Rights in Costa Rica’s Close Election

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      In Sunday’s runoff, voters will decide between a candidate found to have sexually harassed junior employees at the World Bank and a former president once accused of corruption.SAN JOSÉ, Costa Rica — He was demoted from a senior position at the World Bank because of sexual harassment. Now, the economist Rodrigo Chaves — who has campaigned as a populist outsider in an election marked by anger at traditional politicians — leads the polls to become Costa Rica’s next president on Sunday.It’s an unexpected rise to prominence in a country that has taken a lead role in the advancement of progressive policies in Central America, underlining how the desire to punish political elites for economic stagnation is overshadowing most other issues.In 2019, Mr. Chaves was reprimanded by the World Bank for what was shown to be a pattern of sexual misconduct against junior employees, though the details of his behavior were made public by a Costa Rica newspaper only in August — details the presidential candidate has repeatedly rebutted.Mr. Chaves’s denial and downplaying of a documented history of sexual harassment come two years after another Costa Rican politician, the former president and a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Óscar Arias Sánchez, narrowly avoided prosecution for sexual abuse, in a scandal that shook the country.Mr. Arias was accused in 2019 of sexual assault or misconduct by at least nine women, emerging as one of the most significant #MeToo cases in Latin America. However, in December 2020, the charges brought against him by two of the women were dropped.A protest against Óscar Arias Sánchez, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and former president of Costa Rica, who was accused of sexual assault in 2019.Juan Carlos Ulate/ReutersHuman rights activists now say that Mr. Chaves’s bid for power threatens to undermine progress in Central America’s most liberal and egalitarian nation.“The message that this is sending to society is that sexual abuse is something minor, something not serious,” said Larissa Arroyo, a Costa Rican human rights lawyer. “This campaign is normalizing and legitimizing the abuse.”Mr. Chaves and his press office didn’t respond to an interview request.Mr. Chaves languished in obscurity until his alliance with Pilar Cisneros, a prominent female Costa Rican journalist, who presented him to Costa Rican voters as an experienced administrator who would tackle corruption.Just a day after Ms. Cisneros joined Mr. Chaves’s campaign in August, the local newspaper La Nación made public the World Bank’s investigation that found he demonstrated a pattern of sexual harassment against junior female employees between 2008 and 2013.Mr. Chaves responded by downplaying the findings: “Those who have kidnapped the nation are already showing their fear of the candidacy of Rodrigo Chaves.” he said in a video address posted on social media hours after the article’s publication.The revelations did little to damage Mr. Chaves’s campaign. When the investigation was revealed, he was polling at just 2 percent. By the first round of national elections, held in February, he had earned enough votes to move onto the presidential runoff.Costa Rican presidential candidates during a televised debate ahead of the general election, which was held in February.Mayela Lopez/ReutersMs. Cisneros came to Mr. Chaves’s defense, helping to shield him from the full impact of the revelations. “Do you think that Pilar Cisneros would have supported a sexual harasser?” she told the local media in January. The next month, she won a congressional seat for Mr. Chaves’ party.Ahead of the final vote on Sunday, the state-run University of Costa Rica found Mr. Chaves narrowly leading against his opponent: a former Costa Rican president, José María Figueres. In a poll of 1,000 voters conducted by the university on March 24-28, Mr. Chaves led by 3.4 percentage points, slightly above the survey’s margin of error of 3.1 percent.A separate poll published by the University of Costa Rica on March 1 found that only 13 percent of voters thought that harassment accusations against Mr. Chaves were false. But 45 percent said that the accusations would not influence their vote.Mr. Chaves has benefited from the unpopularity of his opponent, Mr. Figueres, who has been marred by accusations of corruption during his first term in office in the 1990s. Mr. Figueres, who leads the country’s oldest and largest political party, the National Liberation Party, is accused of receiving payments in the early 2000s from a French telecommunications company in return for preferential treatment while he was president.Mr. Figueres has denied the accusations, and prosecutors who investigated the payments, which occurred after he stepped down, did not press charges.However, in the eyes of many Costa Ricans, Mr. Figueres and his party have come to represent the venality and elitism of the country’s political system, which many believe is no longer able to solve the country’s economic problems, said Ronald Alfaro, who leads the University of Costa Rica’s Center of Political Studies and Investigation.José María Figueres, the presidential candidate for the National Liberation Party, after advancing to the Costa Rican presidential runoff in February.Arnoldo Robert/Getty ImagesCosta Rica’s tourism-reliant economy suffered greatly from the pandemic — in 2020, its gross domestic product saw its greatest drop in four decades. While parts of the economy bounced back, the country is struggling to rein in rising food and fuel costs.“The accusations end up canceling each other,” Mr. Alfaro said. “Voters end up casting their ballots not for the candidate they like but against the candidate they believe has more fleas than the other,” he said.Turned off by the scandals around both candidates, most Costa Ricans appear to have lost interest in the election. Only a quarter of all registered voters cast their ballots for either Mr. Chaves or Mr. Figueres in the first round of elections, which had the lowest turnout in 70 years.Documents from the World Bank’s internal tribunal and labor union show that Mr. Chaves was punished in 2019 after two female employees filed harassment complaints. At the time, he was the bank’s country head for Indonesia, a director-level position overseeing billions of dollars of lending to one of the world’s largest developing economies.Costa Ricans heading to polling stations in San José in the general elections that took place in February.Ezequiel Becerra/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe women said Mr. Chaves made attempts to kiss junior employees on the mouth, made sexual comments about their appearances and repeatedly made unwelcome invitations to hotel rooms and dinners. The identities of the women have not been made public.One woman, who reported to Mr. Chaves, told the tribunal that he “commented that he liked it when she bent over, then proceeded to drop an item and ask her to pick it up for him,” a request she said she refused.Mr. Chaves was demoted and his salary was frozen, but the bank stopped short of explicitly calling his behavior sexual harassment. He left the organization days later and returned to his native Costa Rica to become the finance minister for the president, Carlos Alvarado.The Costa Rican Communication Ministry said the current government had been unaware of the harassment case, and that Mr. Chaves told its members at the time that he returned because he wanted to spend his retirement with his elderly mother. Within six months, Mr. Chaves left his ministry position and announced a presidential bid with a little-known political party, promising to “return power to citizens” by holding referendums on important policy topics.Despite Mr. Chaves’s departure from the World Bank, his accusers brought an appeal to the internal tribunal to review the bank’s misconduct investigation.Women demonstrating on International Women’s Day in San José, in March.Mayela Lopez/Reuters“The facts of the present case indicate that Mr. C’s conduct was sexual in nature and that he knew or should have known that his conduct was unwelcome,” the tribunal said in its June ruling. A World Bank official said the bank did not dispute the facts of the case as presented in the ruling.Even before the ruling was issued, in January 2021, the organization banned Mr. Chaves from its premises and imposed a rehiring ban. The bank’s sister organization, the International Monetary Fund, said it also restricted Mr. Chaves’s access to its premises.In the months since, Mr. Chaves has denied or misrepresented the findings; instead, he’s said that the World Bank found little more than an allegation against him, referring to the bank’s initial decision not to call his wrongdoings sexual harassment.He has also said that he can freely visit the World Bank’s offices — contradicting the bank’s ban on his access — and that as president he will continue doing business with the bank, which has $2.3 billion in outstanding loans in Costa Rica.Mr. Chaves has also promised to “revise” the laws on in vitro fertilization and abortion, which have been made more accessible by recent presidential decrees. Abortion is legal in Costa Rica when the pregnancy threatens a woman’s health.These measures threaten to derail the slow but noticeable advances in women’s reproductive rights under the recent governments, said Ms. Arroyo, the human rights lawyer. She said the proposals also would damage Costa Rica’s role in the advancement of social rights in a deeply socially conservative region where abortion is largely banned and where violence against women goes mostly unpunished.El Erizo, a low-income neighborhood, and the modern neighborhood of Ciruelas, in the province of Alajuela, Costa Rica.Luis Acosta/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesCosta Rica’s political stability and strong democracy have long made it an outlier in a region dominated by authoritarians and organized crime, and the country has achieved one of Latin America’s highest levels of social inclusion, in areas ranging from access to education and health care to civil rights.“If Costa Rica declines in its protection of women’s rights,” Ms. Arroyo said, “it’s most likely that the rest of the neighboring countries will not have this example to keep moving forward.” More

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      Surprised that Ivanka was almost head of the World Bank? You shouldn’t be | Arwa Mahdawi

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      OpinionIvanka TrumpSurprised that Ivanka Trump was almost head of the World Bank? You shouldn’t beArwa MahdawiDonald Trump wanting his daughter to have the top job at the World Bank is no great surprise. What intrigues me is the thought of Steven Mnuchin blocking it Tue 12 Oct 2021 11.34 EDTLast modified on Tue 12 Oct 2021 14.01 EDTIt’s no secret that Donald Trump has something of a soft spot for his eldest daughter, Ivanka. He’s constantly tooting her horn and gushing over her talents. Not only does Ivanka have a “very nice figure”, Trump has boasted, but “she’s very good with numbers”. She’s so good at all that numbers stuff that the former president even considered her for the top job at the World Bank in 2019. And that wasn’t just a fleeting fantasy, either; according to a recent report by the Intercept, Ivanka’s nomination for World Bank president “came incredibly close to happening”. The reason it didn’t is that Trump’s treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, intervened. Which, by the way is a rather different story from the one Ivanka tells. The former first daughter has said she passed on the job because she was very happy with the high-powered White House position she’d appointed herself to.I can’t say I’m surprised that Ivanka was a stone’s throw away from a(nother) prestigious job she was laughably unqualified for. What does intrigue me is why Mnuchin might have blocked her nomination. Trump has a knack of surrounding himself with sycophants who do his bidding; what could have prompted Mnuchin to break ranks? Could it possibly be that the guy finds brazen nepotism distasteful? Alas, it seems unlikely, considering he’s a product of it himself. Mnuchin’s first job out of Yale was at Goldman Sachs, where his dad just happened to be a general partner. According to a New York magazine profile, Mnuchin’s colleagues at Goldman Sachs didn’t consider him “especially book smart”, but that didn’t stop him becoming partner himself. The same profile notes that his elevation to partner came at the expense of an African American trader from a working-class background who struck one colleague as being “much smarter than Steven” and having “accomplished a lot more”. I don’t know how fair that profile is, but I’d bet both my kidneys that Mnuchin isn’t someone who stays awake at night fretting about nepotism.So perhaps Mnuchin was afraid Ivanka’s appointment might be unethical or make the US look ridiculous? Again, these theories seem unlikely. Mnuchin and his (third) wife, the Scottish actor Louise Linton, don’t seem particularly bothered by ethics or looking ridiculous. Mnuchin, after all, is nicknamed the “foreclosure king” because he made a ton of money evicting elderly people from their homes. Linton, meanwhile, is notorious for having written a “white saviour” memoir full of dubious claims. The pair haven’t exactly kept a low profile since getting together. Remember when the lovebirds did a very weird supervillain-style photoshoot with a sheet of new dollar bills? Not exactly something someone concerned about optics might do. Then there was the time they took a government plane to see a solar eclipse in Kentucky. Linton posted the trip on Instagram and hashtagged all the designer labels she was wearing: “#rolandmouret pants”, “#tomford sunnies”, “#hermesscarf”, “#valentinorockstudheels”. The whole thing was #inverybadtaste.The pair haven’t exactly tried to tone it down since then. Linton recently made a movie called Me You Madness where she plays a “materialistic, narcissistic, self-absorbed misanthrope” who hates commercial air travel, loves high fashion and eats men for fun. It also contains spider sex. Mnuchin has been very supportive of the movie, calling the escapades of a greedy sociopath “highly entertaining”. Again, he doesn’t seem like the sort of guy who cares what other people think. Rather, he seems like the sort of guy who actively supports narcissistic blonds (Linton looks quite a bit like Ivanka) with white saviour complexes and enormous egos doing whatever the hell they like. If he blocked Ivanka’s nomination then I’ll once again wager my kidneys that it wasn’t for the common good, but it was somehow for his own good. After all, nepotism simply isn’t a problem for people like Mnuchin. It’s just the way the world works.
      Arwa Mahdawi is a Guardian columnist
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