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      Midterms scenarios: will Republicans take the Senate and the House?

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      Midterms scenarios: will Republicans take the Senate and the House?A handful of general scenarios could play out on Tuesday, each having huge significance for Biden and Donald Trump As Americans go to the polls on Tuesday they are voting in what Joe Biden has framed as a vital test for American democracy in the face of a Republican party fielding candidates who buy into the big lie of a stolen 2020 election.Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to capitalize on widespread economic anxiety in the face of rising inflation as well as stoking culture war themes and fears over crime, often spilling over into racism and intolerance.Why the US midterms matter – from abortion rights to democracyRead moreMillions of voters are casting their ballot as Republicans and Democrats fight for control of Congress, numerous state governorships as well as many local offices and ballot initiatives on issues like abortion.A handful of general scenarios could play out, each having momentous significance for the Biden presidency and the tactics of a resurgent Republican party and its de facto leader Donald Trump.Republicans win the House, Democrats hold the SenateIn a split decision, expect Republicans to thwart Biden’s legislative agenda and launch a flurry of congressional investigations, for example into the botched military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the president’s son Hunter’s business dealings in China and Ukraine. Trump ally Jim Jordan might take the lead.A Republican majority would also doom the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. They might even seek revenge by launching a counter-investigation into telecom companies that handed over phone records to the committee or into members of the panel themselves.Policy-wise, Republicans could seek to reverse some major accomplishments of Biden’s first two years, such as climate spending, student loan forgiveness and corporate tax increases.Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader and current favourite to become House speaker, has told Punchbowl News that Republicans would use a future battle over raising the national debt ceiling as leverage to force cuts in public spending.McCarthy has also warned that the party will not write a “blank cheque” for Ukraine, while Marjorie Taylor Greene, expected to be a prominent figure in the Republican caucus, told a rally in Iowa: “Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine. Our country comes first.”But a Democratic-controlled Senate would be able to continue rubber-stamping Biden’s nominations for cabinet secretaries and federal judges.Republicans win House and SenateDespite polarisation in Washington, Biden has so far achieved some bipartisan victories on infrastructure, gun safety, health benefits for veterans and manufacturing investments to compete with China. But Republicans would be less likely to allow him further wins as the next presidential election draws closer.Instead, expect a new antagonism between the White House and Congress. A Republican-controlled Senate could slow down or block Biden’s judicial nominees, including if there is an unexpected opening on the supreme court.Conversely, Republican attempts to harden rules on immigration, gun rights or ban transgender women from playing in women’s sports would surely be met by a Biden presidential veto.The Republican policy agenda remains nebulous. Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader in the Senate, has resisted publishing a platform, fuelling criticism that the party has a cult of personality around Trump.Former president Barack Obama told a recent rally in Atlanta, Georgia: “These days, right now, just about every Republican politician seems obsessed with two things: owning the libs and getting Donald Trump’s approval.”Rick Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, did publish a 12-point plan that includes forcing poorer Americans who do not currently pay income tax to do so and reauthorising social security and Medicare every five years instead of allowing the programmes to continue automatically.And Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina introduced a bill to create a national ban on abortions at 15 weeks, dividing Republicans and infuriating progressive activists. If far-right members put it to a vote, Senate Democrats would be sure to filibuster it.The White House, meanwhile, would be forced on the defensive against a slew of congressional investigations into Afghanistan, Hunter Biden and other targets.Democrats hold House and SenateThis would be a huge surprise and defy historical trends. Opinion pollsters would be crying into their beer, fearing that their industry is well and truly broken.A Democratic sweep would give Joe Biden a mandate to enact a sweeping agenda that would again invite comparisons with former presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.Biden said last month that, if Democrats win control of Congress, the first bill he sends to Capitol Hill next year would codify Roe v Wade, the 1973 supreme court decision that overturned the constitutional right to abortion. The party could also push for national protections for same-sex marriage and voting rights.The president wants further actions on gun safety including a ban on assault weapons. He could seek to resurrect elements of his Build Back Better agenda, including more climate measures and expanding the social safety net, and make another attempt to tackle racial discrimination in policing.And some Democrats are drafting legislation to prevent Trump from running for president in 2024 due to his instigation of the January 6 insurrection, the New York Times reported, although that would be a long shot.But much would depend on how big – or small – the Democratic majority turns out to be. If it is slender, the conservative Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona could once again call the shots and frustrate the president’s ambitions.TopicsUS newsUS politicsUS midterm elections 2022House of RepresentativesUS CongressDemocratsRepublicansnewsReuse this content More

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      Outcry as Republican Nikki Haley says Raphael Warnock should be ‘deported’

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      Outcry as Republican Nikki Haley says Raphael Warnock should be ‘deported’Comments from former South Carolina governor and UN envoy, seen as a potential 2024 candidate, draw widespread criticism The former US ambassador to the United Nations and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley told Republicans at a rally for Herschel Walker the Democrat in the Georgia US Senate race, the Rev Raphael Warnock, should be “deported”.“I am the daughter of Indian immigrants,” Haley said in Hiram, Georgia, on Sunday. “They came here legally, they put in the time, they put in the price, they are offended by what’s happening on [the southern US] border.Midterms live: Biden and Trump hit campaign trail as 41 million US voters cast early ballots in crucial electionsRead more“Legal immigrants are more patriotic than the leftists these days. They knew they worked to come into America, and they love America. They want the laws followed in America, so the only person we need to make sure we deport is Warnock.”Haley is widely seen as a potential candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, a seemingly imminent declaration from Donald Trump notwithstanding. Her comment drew widespread criticism.Cornell William Brooks, a Harvard professor and pastor, wrote: “Were it not for civil rights laws Black folks died for, Nikki Haley’s family might not be in America.“Were it not for a HBCU [historically Black college and university] giving her father his first job in the US, Haley wouldn’t be in a position to insult Georgia’s first Black senator. Warnock’s history makes her story possible.”Heath Mayo, an anti-Trump conservative, said: “Nikki Haley calling to deport Raphael Warnock perfectly captures how those that should’ve been serious and talented leaders were really just weak toadies ready to say anything for applause. This entire generation of GOP ‘leaders’ failed their test and let the country down.”Walker and Warnock are locked in a tight race that could decide control of the Senate, currently split 50-50 and controlled by the vote of the vice-president, Kamala Harris. On Monday, the polling website FiveThirtyEight.com put Warnock one point ahead.Haley also said Walker was “a good person who has been put through the ringer and has had everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him”.Walker, a former college and NFL football star, has been shown to have made numerous false claims about his business career and personal life. Two women have said he pressured them to have abortions, allegations he denies while campaigning on a stringently anti-abortion platform.Warnock, a pastor at a church once home to the civil rights leader Martin Luther King, won his Senate seat in January 2021, defeating the Republican Kelly Loeffler in a run-off. That victory and Jon Ossoff’s win over David Perdue for the other Georgia seat gave Democrats their precarious control of the chamber.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsGeorgiaDemocratsRepublicansnewsReuse this content More

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      We shouldn’t take Prigozhin’s admission of US election interference at face value | Peter Beaumont

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      AnalysisWe shouldn’t take Prigozhin’s admission of US election interference at face valuePeter BeaumontBy saying he is continuing to interfere he appears to be trying to shape the idea that results can’t be trusted The admission by the Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin that he has interfered in US elections and would continue doing so in future, is both unsurprising – not least because it has long been known to be true – and, perhaps, not to be taken entirely at face value.While it is the first such admission from a figure who has been formally accused by Washington over Moscow’s efforts to influence American politics the timing of Prigozhin’s comments ahead of the midterm elections are also significant.In comments posted by the press service of his Concord catering firm on Russia’s Facebook equivalent VKontakte, Prigozhin said: “We have interfered [in US elections], we are interfering and we will continue to interfere. Carefully, accurately, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do.”Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin admits interfering in US electionsRead moreUS prosecutors have previously alleged that Concord had funded an operation that had promoted Donald Trump during the 2016 US elections – an allegation which Prigozhin and the company strongly denied.But the public statement underlines the point of such interference operations – a point that is sometimes misunderstood.Put simply, a key point of Russian hybrid warfare – with its focus on political interference – is that it does not necessarily matter whether the interference actually succeeds in any meaningful way.Instead, a significant part of its function is actively to sow distrust about the health of democratic institutions – not least by suggesting an outsized reach and capability.By saying he is continuing to interfere – a day before the US midterm elections – he appears to be trying to shape the idea that the results cannot be trusted.And the public nature of his statement suggests that there may be other agendas at work than simply his feelings of enjoying impunity.Known as “Putin’s chef” because his catering company operates Kremlin contracts, the former convict has long been accused of sponsoring operations that seek to influence western politics and spread disinformation across the globe, attracting international sanctions.That has seen social media companies, including Meta and Twitter, move against Prigozhin’s internet operations in Africa, which saw Facebook remove fake Prigozhin-linked accounts that have promoted Russian policies aimed Central African Republic and, to a lesser extent, Madagascar, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique and South Africa.In July, the US state department offered a reward of up to $10m for information on Prigozhin in connection with “engagement in US election interference”. This came after a 2020 report by US Senate intelligence committee which described how Russian operatives had worked online to disrupt the 2016 election.“Masquerading as Americans, these operatives used targeted advertisements, intentionally falsified news articles, self-generated content and social-media platform tools to interact with and attempt to deceive tens of millions of social-media users in the United States,” it said.However, in 2018 US Cyber Command claimed to have knocked Russian operatives offline during the 2018 US congressional elections, raising questions over the scale and impact of Moscow’s continuing efforts.Prighozin’s latest comments come as the previously publicity-shy Putin confidant has chosen to come out of the shadows in recent months.One possibility is that Prigozhin’s remarks should be seen as part of his efforts to position himself in a more formal role in Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine in alliance with a faction of hardliners who blame Russian generals for bungling the prosecution of the war.But efforts being led by Prigozhin’s Wagner Group mercenaries around the key Donbas town of Bakhmut are not much more impressive than Russia’s conventional military and they have made imperceptibly slow progress.It is possible that Prigozhin himself needs to claim a success on the hybrid warfare front as his own fighting force has visibly underperformed.What is clear, however, is that, after years of denying his involvement with Wagner and with influence operations – to the point of pursuing journalists through the courts – Prigozhin now sees it more useful to emphasise his claimed usefulness to Putin in public.Or, just perhaps, he has done so with an eye to whoever might follow Putin.TopicsRussiaUS midterm elections 2022US politicsanalysisReuse this content More

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      Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin admits interfering in US elections

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      Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin admits interfering in US electionsRussian businessman and founder of Wagner Group says interference will continue as midterms loom

      Analysis: We shouldn’t take Prigozhin’s admission at face value
      US midterms – live
      The powerful Russian businessman and a close Vladimir Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin has admitted to interfering in US elections on the eve of a midterm vote in which Republicans will seek to take control of Congress and state-wide offices across the country.“Gentlemen, we interfered, we are interfering and we will interfere,” Prigozhin, who has previously been accused of influencing the outcome of elections across continents, said in a statement posted by his catering company, Concord.“Carefully, precisely, surgically and the way we do it, the way we can,” Prigozhin, 61, added.Prigozhin was responding to a request to comment on a recent Bloomberg report saying Russia was interfering in Tuesday’s US midterm elections. The vote is crucial for the legislative agenda in the rest of US president Joe Biden’s term – and could pave the way for a White House comeback by Donald Trump.The US social media analysis firm Graphika last week said that suspected Russian operatives have used far-right media platforms to criticise Democratic candidates in the lead-up to the midterm elections in a number of US states, including Georgia, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.Prigozhin, with a dozen other Russian nationals and three Russian companies, was indicted in 2018 as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections.Prigozhin was charged with inciting discord and dividing American public opinion before the 2016 US presidential election, accusations Prigozhin, as well as the Kremlin, has previously denied.Biden’s spokesperson, Karine Jean-Pierre, said the White House was not surprised by Prigozhin’s remarks. “It’s well known and well documented in the public domain that entities associated with Yevgeny Prigozhin have sought to influence elections around the world including the United States,” she said.The once-secretive businessman has emerged as one of Russia’s most visible pro-war figures since the start of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, leading to speculation he is seeking a role in the government.In September, Prigozhin, also known as “Putin’s chef” because his catering business hosted dinners attended by the Russian president, admitted to founding the notorious Wagner Group private military company in 2014. The US and EU have previously imposed sanctions on Prigozhin for his role in Wagner.The series of brazen admissions by the businessman is remarkable given the geopolitical implications of the acknowledgments and the fact that Prigozhin has previously pursued several Russian and western outlets for reporting his links to Wagner.Prigozhin has frequently boasted about Wagner’s role in the war in Ukraine, where the group is believed to have played a central part in the capture of several cities and towns in the east of the country.He has also criticised the country’s senior military leadership and has vouched to create his own “militia training centres” in Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk regions bordering Ukraine.Last week, Wagner opened a “military technology” centre in St Petersburg, which was widely seen as another effort by Prigozhin to promote his military credentials and take a more public role in shaping Russia’s military strategy.TopicsRussiaUS politicsUS midterm elections 2022Vladimir PutinnewsReuse this content More

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      With Midterm Elections just days away, LGBTQ+ issues continue to provoke American conservatives

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      The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media. More

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      ‘My gut-felt, heartbreaking decision’ – Tracey Emin on her ‘A-Z of abortion’ blanket

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      ‘My gut-felt, heartbreaking decision’ – Tracey Emin on her ‘A-Z of abortion’ blanketThe artist made The Last of the Gold to help women considering a termination. With the issue dominating tomorrow’s US midterms, the work seems more potent than ever “I felt pretty vulnerable. I was so broke, homeless, in debt … I had worked so hard at my education and coming from my background … I knew I wanted to be an artist and I knew that if I had a baby on my own, I felt that I had zero chance of that happening. It seemed ironic that now after all my education and fighting … that I was going to end up being a single mother … And I just thought, I can’t bring a baby into the world with all this …”These are the words of Tracey Emin reflecting on her two abortions from the early 1990s. They highlight the reality endured by so many women around the world. Emin has been making highly political work for decades. Through painting, textiles, films and more, she unveils the rawness and truths of life. Abortion is an issue she has constantly explored, yet its importance in her work has too often been dismissed.TopicsArt and designThe great women’s art bulletinTracey EminAbortionUS politicsWomenfeaturesReuse this content More

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      A Young American Woman Loses Faith After Dobbs Ruling

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      The Fair Observer website uses digital cookies so it can collect statistics on how many visitors come to the site, what content is viewed and for how long, and the general location of the computer network of the visitor. These statistics are collected and processed using the Google Analytics service. Fair Observer uses these aggregate statistics from website visits to help improve the content of the website and to provide regular reports to our current and future donors and funding organizations. The type of digital cookie information collected during your visit and any derived data cannot be used or combined with other information to personally identify you. Fair Observer does not use personal data collected from its website for advertising purposes or to market to you.As a convenience to you, Fair Observer provides buttons that link to popular social media sites, called social sharing buttons, to help you share Fair Observer content and your comments and opinions about it on these social media sites. These social sharing buttons are provided by and are part of these social media sites. They may collect and use personal data as described in their respective policies. Fair Observer does not receive personal data from your use of these social sharing buttons. It is not necessary that you use these buttons to read Fair Observer content or to share on social media. More

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      Only the Strong review: Tom Cotton as hawk … too chicken to take on Trump?

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      Only the Strong review: Tom Cotton as hawk … too chicken to take on Trump?The Arkansas senator’s book may be a calling card for 2024 but he must know he is highly unlikely to be the next GOP nominee Together, Tom Cotton and Mitch McConnell worked to undermine Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. On 6 January 2021, both Republican senators refused to take the path paved by their colleagues Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley and object to results in key states. Cotton, from Arkansas, branded those who stormed the Capitol “insurrectionists” – a label he had used before, for those who rioted in the aftermath of the murder of George Floyd.Senator Tom Cotton brags about ignoring Trump impeachment evidenceRead moreUnlike Cruz, Cotton didn’t back down or simper before Tucker Carlson. In contrast to Hawley, he is southern but not neo-Confederate, more Andrew Jackson than John C Calhoun. Cotton’s new book, Only the Strong, name-checks Abraham Lincoln. He has previously opined on slavery, saying the founders viewed it as “the necessary evil upon which the union was built”, a remark that angered the left (most likely pleasing its author). More recently, Cotton condemned David DePape, the man who attacked Paul Pelosi. The US needs to “get tough on crime”, the senator said.Cotton’s consistency, however, is limited. He knows his party belongs to Trump. In his new book, he avoids mention of January 6.Cotton is happy of course to castigate Joe Biden on Ukraine, writing: “His weakness enticed Vladimir Putin to invade.” The senator is a decorated combat veteran who served in Afghanistan and Iraq (though not as an army ranger, as he has previously said). Against the backdrop of the botched US pullout from Afghanistan, his critique is comprehensible. Not surprisingly, though, Cotton is loth to criticize Trump, a Vietnam-era draft-dodger who in early 2022 lavished praise on his idol, Putin, and derided Nato as “not so smart”.“I don’t speak on behalf of other politicians,” the normally loquacious Cotton told ABC in response.There is also the fact Cotton received more than $40,000 in campaign donations from a commodities speculator who profiteered from Ukraine’s misfortune.The subtitle of Cotton’s book is “Reversing the Left’s Plot to Sabotage American Power”. He seeks to pin all that is wrong on the Democrats, their allies and their voters. He slams Bill Clinton and Barack Obama for their lack of military service – but again his gaze is selective. He omits George W Bush’s spotty time in the Texas air national guard, rather than go to Vietnam, and Trump’s “bone spurs” which kept him out of the same ghastly war.Practically speaking, Only the Strong is best viewed as an obligatory pre-presidential campaign book, penned to distinguish its author from the rest of the Republican field. Cotton pays lip service to Trump but his heart clearly belongs to Ronald Reagan, the last president to win in a landslide.Cotton approves of Reagan’s stance toward a Sandinista-run Nicaragua but is silent on Iran-Contra. He rightly praises Reagan’s arms treaty with the Soviets, but doubles down on his contention that Vietnam was a “noble cause”. Cotton has only scorn for Daniel Ellsberg, the source for the Pentagon Papers, which cast light on US handling of Vietnam. Cotton is unmoved by evidence the government was less than forthright.He avoids substantive criticism of the Iraq war. Bush should be faulted for failing to “dedicate enough troops during the early days”, Cotton writes, without elaboration. It’s a far cry from calling Bush a “stupid moron”, which Trump did in an interview with Bob Woodward of the Washington Post.Cotton would look foolish or worse if he tried. He is an unbowed war hawk. In 2013, he attended a campaign fundraiser hosted by Dan Senor, the Bush administration spokesman who once told reporters: “Well, off the record, Paris is burning. But on the record, security and stability are returning to Iraq.” Senor’s event netted more than $100,000. Donors included the late casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, who memorably urged the US to bomb Iran.“You pick up your cellphone and you call somewhere in Nebraska and you say, ‘OK let it go,’” Adelson said in 2013. “And so, there’s an atomic weapon, goes over ballistic missiles, the middle of the desert, that doesn’t hurt a soul. Maybe a couple of rattlesnakes and scorpions, or whatever.”Predictably, Cotton goes full bore at Biden for, he claims, doing “next to nothing to protect America from our greatest threat, Communist China”. Biden’s efforts to restrict US companies and citizens from helping China make semiconductor chips seem to have escaped the senator’s notice.Likewise, Cotton supports arming Taiwan against China but fails to comment on Trump’s willingness to cut Taiwan loose. Trump once remarked that the island was “like two feet from China” and the US was “8,000 miles away”, chillingly adding that if the Chinese invade, “there isn’t a fucking thing we can do”.At a September rally, Trump contrasted Biden with Xi Jinping and Putin: “I’ve got to know a lot of the foreign leaders, and let me tell you, unlike our leader, they’re at the top of their game.”Pence blames Trump for events leading to January 6 in new memoirRead moreFrom Cotton? Nada. From the looks of things, he wishes to maintains his viability as a possible Republican nominee. At 45 he is decades younger than Trump and in far better condition than Cruz. He has plenty of time.But don’t expect Cotton to take on Trump in 2024, unless Trump is indicted. Cotton lacks Ron DeSantis’s war chest, and would probably get crushed. For what it’s worth, even DeSantis is suddenly reported to be suffering from cold feet. Beyond that, Sarah Sanders, once Trump’s press secretary, is a shoo-in to be the next governor of Arkansas. With her assistance, Trump would crush Cotton in his home state.On Friday, reports said Trump was set to announce his bid for re-election in a matter of days. Within the GOP, there shall be no god before Him, and Him does not include Cotton. His book’s shelf-life may be limited.
      Only the Strong: Reversing the Left’s Plot to Sabotage American Power is published in the US by Hachette
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