More stories

  • in

    Trump finds unlikely backers in prominent pro-democracy Asian figures

    Jimmy Lai, Hong Kong media tycoon and one of the most prominent pro-democracy figures in the city, waded into the US election in its final days, with an enthusiastic endorsement of the incumbent in his Apple Daily newspaper.“I find a stronger sense of security in [Donald] Trump,” he wrote in an editorial that praised the US president for his “hardline” approach to Beijing.His position is echoed by many in Hong Kong’s increasingly battered pro-democracy movement, across Taiwan and among many exiled Chinese dissidents living in America, including blind lawyer Chen Guangcheng, who endorsed Trump at the Republican national convention.The US president might not seem like a natural ally for pro-democracy campaigners after years of public support for strongmen and dictators, undermining the press at home, and even attacking domestic protesters as “rioters”.At a time of increased hate attacks on Asian Americans he has also used racist rhetoric about Covid-19, describing it as “kung flu” and the “China virus”. Advocacy groups have warned Trump’s language could have dangerous consequences.But Lai and others who want democracy for China see in Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign policy, and his escalating confrontations with Beijing, their greatest hope of challenging Chinese Communist party rule.“The Trump administration might be the hand that eventually pushes China to democracy,” dissident Wang Juntao, who fled into exile after the crackdown in Tiananmen Square in 1989, told local New York paper The City.In Taiwan a recent poll found that independence-leaning Taiwanese back Trump strongly. 80% of Democratic Progressive party supporters wanted US voters to return him to office, the Taiwan Times reported.These enthusiastic Trump supporters are motivated by the president’s turn away from decades of US engagement with Beijing, rather than his personal politics, said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London.“They are focusing much more on confronting the challenges posed by the Communist party of China than they are focusing on the principles of democracy and human rights,” Tsang said.Since Nixon, US presidents had all “to slightly different extents, belonged to the school of engagement with China”, Tsang added. Trump began his presidency with a similar approach, so keen to strike a trade deal that he held off taking action over human rights abuses in Xinjiang to smooth negotiations.But amid escalating tensions over everything from the coronavirus to the economy and allegations of industrial espionage, he has broken definitively with that tradition, deploying the strongest rhetoric on China since the early days of the cold war.Timeline2020 US election: key datesShow3 November 2020Polling day. However in many states people have been able to vote early either in person or by absentee ballot since September.23 November 2020Washington is due to be the last state to stop accepting and counting votes – they must be postmarked on or before election day, but can be counted if they arrive as many as 20 days afterwards. In practice, however, Washington is among the safest Democratic party states and will have been called for one party or the other long before this deadline.8 December 2020Deadline for states to resolve any disputes over the selection of their electors of the electoral college.14 December 2020The electors meet in their respective state capitals to formally vote for the president and vice-president.6 January 2021The electoral college votes are formally counted in a joint session of Congress. The president of the Senate announces who will be the next president of the United States.20 January 2021The next president swears their oath and is inaugurated in a Washington DC ceremony.Trump has also brought in a series of sanctions over alleged abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, boosted diplomatic and military support for self-ruled Taiwan, and challenged Chinese-owned tech firms operating in the US.For prominent figures like Lai, that has meant support for both his cause, and him personally. When the tycoon was arrested by Hong Kong authorities in August, Trump denounced the detention as “a terrible thing”.Lai’s media empire has even been accused of trying to actively meddle in the US election. He recently apologised for the role the Apple Daily played in a report on Hunter Biden’s alleged Chinese business links.He admitted funds from his private firm had been used to pay for it, but said he personally had “nothing to do” with its commissioning or dissemination.Support for Trump is far from universal among critics of China, however. Kevin Yam, a Hong Kong-based lawyer, is among those who argue that the lure of a hardline stance against Beijing is superficial, and the president’s position on other issues will ultimately undermine everything they are fighting for.“I dispute the very idea that Trump is ‘tough on China’ given his record, and his words and deeds make it hard for him to have credibility when pushing a human rights agenda around the world,” said Yam who laid out his concerns in an editorial for Ming Pao and said he was showered with abuse when it came out.“If an anti-universal values power ‘beats’ another, that’s not a triumph for freedom, it’s just Orwellian Nineteen Eighty-Four-style endless mutual destruction as between hegemons,” he wrote in an English language summary of his argument on Twitter.In the US, another Tiananmen Square dissident, Wan Yanhai is campaigning hard against the incumbent, and says he too has faced verbal abuse and even a death threat, but is determined to continue.“Trump has inflicted major damage on democracy,” he told The City. “You want to fight against the CCP [Chinese Communist party], but you shouldn’t expect one monster to eat another monster.” More

  • in

    On my travels, I saw a vision of two Americas – but which one will triumph?

    [embedded content]
    A stilt walker dressed as Uncle Sam lumbered between selfies, a lifesize dummy of Donald Trump – complete with bulging eye bags – sat motionless by the roadside, and families, young and old, waved Trump flags as cars tooted their horns in support.
    It was a grey autumn Saturday earlier this month at a Republican rally just outside Youngstown, Ohio – a once prosperous city in the heart of America’s rustbelt, embedded in a region that flipped to Donald Trump in 2016.
    What started as a casual political gathering, however, descended into a full-throated confrontation that encapsulated the stark divisions that underscore this seminal election, and perhaps the state of the country as a whole.
    A bashed up red Chevy pickup daubed in handmade “Dump Trump” signs pulled up slowly. And a lone protester, Chuckie Denison, a former factory worker at a local General Motors plant that closed last year, jumped out to berate the assembled crowd.
    “Two-hundred-and-twenty-thousand Americans have died under Trump. And our jobs have gone.” he shouted. “And all we ask is for somebody to represent all of us.”
    I’d come to Youngstown because Donald Trump had made direct promises to the people living here; to restore a failing economy and bring back manufacturing jobs after years of decay. But poverty and jobless rates continue to soar here.
    In that crowd of Trump supporters were people who had worked at the same plant as Denison, and others who had lost their jobs during the pandemic. And yet they still believed Trump would bring stability to their lives.
    “He’s probably paid,” said one Trump supporter – dismissing Denison, who had been accosted by a number of the flag wavers.
    Within minutes, Denison’s signs were ripped from his truck and he was sent away in a whirlwind of abusive language.

    [embedded content]

    I have driven thousands of miles throughout this election season, for our Anywhere But Washington film series, visiting the battleground states of Ohio, Georgia, Texas, Florida and North Carolina. And it has often felt like reporting in two parallel dimensions, where common ground between two factions of the same nation can feel nonexistent.
    On one end, a feverish loyalty to the president, where not even the most sensational of scandals have a bearing on political belief. And where disinformation has given way to objective fact. On the other what often feels like a greater enthusiasm for removing Trump from office than for the Democrat on the top of the ticket. But still a constituency that increasingly reflects the diversity of the country itself.
    After two months of travel, and with most polls predicting an overwhelming victory for Biden, I’m still unsure who will win and whether any sort of victory has the power to reunite this fractured nation.
    ***
    The passionate public disagreement I saw in Youngstown felt emblematic of a divided country and there are dark forces underpinning much of it.
    Donald Trump has weaponized extremist misinformation to bolster his campaign and reverted to pushing conspiracy theories that cast doubt over election integrity, and, most recently, question the ethics of doctors working to save the lives of Covid-19 patients. He has declined to disavow QAnon, a baseless far-right conspiracy movement, which suggests Trump is the victim of a ‘deep state’ plot run by satanic paedophiles tied to the Democratic party. Instead, he described the movement as being filled with patriotic citizens “who love America”.
    Recent polling indicates that half of his supporters now believe in the conspiracy movement.
    On an intensely humid day in Peach county, central Georgia, I hitched a ride with organizers for Black Voters Matter, a voting rights advocacy group targeting marginalized Black communities in a bid to boost turnout and fight rampant voter suppression. Georgia is a battleground state for the first time in decades, and turning out voters in low-income minority neighborhoods could be the key to swinging it for the Democrats.
    But Fenika Miller, a regional organizer, already faces an uphill task – and pervasive disinformation has made it even harder.
    Miller remains upbeat, she registers voters with a smile and seems driven to get those in her community out to the polls. She blares James Brown’s funk classic Say It Loud – I’m Black And I’m Proud out of her van to draw people from their homes.

    The enthusiasm for Biden is palpable in many of the neighborhoods we visited. But one encounter was chilling.
    “Joe Biden, he’s trying to legalize paedophiles,” said one young man as he explained to Miller that he was already registered and voting for Trump.
    I ask where he got his information from. “Every morning I get on my phone and watch different videos and stuff. You just put two and two together.”
    Miller is coming into contact with these dangerous falsehoods on a daily basis.
    “We’re living in dangerous times under a dangerous administration,” she said. “It’s intentional misinformation they’re putting out specifically targeting young voters and Black voters.”
    She hugged the young man and asked him to be careful where he reads his news. But it was clear his mind was already made up. He was not the last person I came into contact with expressing belief in QAnon.
    ***
    Away from the sinister conspiracy movements, my travels through the US have often felt like wading through a sea of alternative facts, where flat-out lies and mistruth have become mainstream Republican talking points and often the only way to excuse the president’s catastrophic policy failures.
    In Texas, which for the first time in generations is now a battleground state after record early voter turnout, I met Rick Barnes, chairman of the Tarrant County Republican Party in suburban Dallas. I asked him if Trump’s child separation policy at the southern border had ever given him pause to question the morality in his party.
    “That was not a policy that Trump put in place. That was a policy of the predecessor,” he replied.
    I pointed out this was untrue and that Trump’s former attorney general Jeff Sessions had specifically instructed his Justice Department to separate children from their parents as a deterrence, something unprecedented in US history.
    “That’s something we’d have to agree to disagree on,” he replied.
    In Florida, a critical swing state, I met Malcolm Out Loud, a conservative radio host who argued that Dr Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert is “a fraud” and that the official Covid-19 death toll is inflated.
    “This entire pandemic has been a setup,” he said.
    I pointed out he had no public health background or any expertise to make such a claim.
    “We can agree to disagree,” he replied, mirroring the refrain from Barnes.

    ***
    The extreme policy and dark rhetoric of the past four years has punished the most vulnerable in US society. And it’s in many of these communities where I found the most fervent faith in Joe Biden and, more pointedly, a vision of America that marked a return to societal norms.
    In the southern border city of McAllen, Texas I visited the Ramirez family who have for six generations maintained a small chapel close to the US-Mexico border. It was once a site on the underground railroad, offering safe haven to escaped slaves. Dozens of the family’s ancestors are buried in its graveyard. But Donald Trump’s wall is being built just a few feet away.
    If building goes ahead – the foundations have been laid but not the wall itself – the family chapel will be effectively partitioned from the United States, and the Ramirez family will be forced to go through customs checks to visit their ancestors.
    “We are praying for Joe Biden, because him winning is the only thing that will stop this wall,” said Silvia Ramirez as she stood at the graveyard, now surrounded by rubble.
    Biden has pledged to immediately end construction of Trump’s wall if elected, which would most likely save the family’s chapel.
    Prayer for Biden is ongoing in the battleground state of North Carolina as well. Here I met a group of traveling evangelical preachers desperate to convince others in their denomination to change their minds. In 2016 white evangelicals made up over a quarter of voters in the country and 81% of them voted for Donald Trump.
    Many of the pastors on this national bus tour, named Vote Common Good, had themselves been loyal Republicans until Donald Trump came to office but his child separation policy along with attempts to ban Muslims from entering the country, inspired a number of them to speak out.
    “This is a diagnostic election that’s going to show us who we are,” said pastor Doug Pagitt, the group’s founder. “And if the Christian community in this country says: ‘this [Trump] is our guy’ again, that is an indictment.”

    ***
    Although opposition to Trump has galvanized a base of moral support for Biden, the former vice-president was far from a consensus candidate among progressives.
    But it is not simply Biden and Trump on the ballot this year, the president’s challenger is joined all over the country by a field of Democratic Party candidates that increasingly represent the diversity of America.
    2020 sees the largest number of Black women running for Congress and not all of them are full throated Biden backers.
    In Texas’s 24th congressional district, a stretch of suburban sprawl outside of Dallas, I met Candace Valenzuela, vying to become the first Afro-Latina elected to Congress. A few years ago this district was solid Republican, but now it’s a toss-up, a marker of the state’s rapidly evolving demographics and many suburban voters’ deep dislike of Trump.
    She is diplomatic when discussing whether a 77-year-old white man is really representative of the change occurring at the grassroots of her party.
    “I don’t think any one of us captures the essence of it,” she says. “It’s something that’s happening in aggregate.”

    But Ebony Carter, a 25-year-old first time candidate and Black Lives Matter activist, is more direct when describing the presidential candidate she will share a ballot with.
    I asked if she thought that Biden’s candidacy spoke to younger people of color in America.
    “No,” she replied. “I’ll be clear with that one.
    “However, I believe that Joe Biden is overwhelmingly the best choice for the job and I’m honored to be on any ticket with anyone who is actually going to fight for American lives, and I think that’s what he’s going to do.”
    Throughout my journey finding authentic, representative politics has been tough – given the nation’s monumental divisions.
    But Ebony Carter’s candidacy, in Georgia’s 110th statehouse district outside of Atlanta, another of those run by Republicans for decades, felt like a shining example of how this country might be unified.
    She is out every day canvassing in both Democratic and Republican neighborhoods with her mother Deborah, who serves as her unofficial campaign manager, and her one year-old daughter Nairobi, who sleeps in a pram as Ebony tries to convince anyone who will listen to turn up and vote. She is pushing healthcare reform and better funding for public education.
    But most importantly she is pushing to build a grassroots movement from the bottom up, trying to engage those who do not normally participate in the electoral process.
    “Why am I doing this?” she said as the sun began to set after a full day of canvassing and Nairobi began to wake up. “Because somebody has to. I want to show people that it’s possible. And I’m doing it for her.” More

  • in

    'Crossroads of the climate crisis': swing state Arizona grapples with deadly heat

    [embedded content]
    Even now, Ivan Moore can’t think why his father didn’t didn’t tell anyone that the air conditioning in their house was busted. “I honestly don’t know what was going through his mind,” he said.
    That week three years ago, temperatures in Phoenix, Arizona were forecasted to top 115F (46C). Moore, his wife and two children went to the mountains for a camping trip, and his dad Gene, stayed behind. A few days later, Gene died.
    The air conditioning had been blowing hot air. “He’d opened a window but it was too hot,” Moore said. “My dad’s heart basically gave out on him.”
    Phoenix – America’s hottest city – is getting hotter and hotter, and Moore’s father is one of the hundreds of Arizonans who have succumbed to the desert heat in recent years. More

  • in

    Joe Biden: from a campaign that came close to folding to the verge of victory

    [embedded content]
    Just days before one of the most extraordinary presidential elections in US history, the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, finds himself flush with cash, polling ahead of Donald Trump in state and national polls, and on a bold last-minute campaign offensive in parts of the country his Republican opponent won in 2016, and would usually be able to depend on for support.
    After a year of a crippling pandemic, economic crisis and historic upheaval, according to some of the most important metrics, Biden is the favorite to win the 2020 presidential election and become the 46th president of the United States.
    Evoking the legacy of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the president who guided the country through the Great Depression and the second world war, Biden brought his closing arguments deep into Republican heartland this week in Warm Springs, Georgia, a tiny spa town Roosevelt would often visit to treat his paralysis.
    “God and history have called us to this moment and to this mission,” Biden said, appealing directly to voters who chose Trump in 2016, in a sign of how emboldened this campaign has become. “The Bible tells us there’s a time to break down, and a time to build up. A time to heal. This is that time.”
    Biden’s mission was always certain: this election was a “battle for the soul of the nation”, he told voters when he announced his candidacy 18 months ago. But his fortunes haven’t always seemed so bright, and it was by no means a sure thing that he would even make it to this moment. More

  • in

    The polls may have got it wrong in 2016, but not this time round. Surely?

    If the poll numbers are to be believed, Joe Biden has already won this week’s US presidential race. But after the scarring experience of 2016, when Donald Trump unexpectedly came up from behind, few voters, election analysts, or even pollsters have complete faith in opinion-poll predictions.
    One exception is James Carville, Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign strategist, who says a Biden landslide, plus a Democratic takeover of the Senate, is a dead cert. “This thing is not going to be close,” he said last month. His interviewer was too polite to point out that Carville also predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide four years ago.
    The hedging of bets by commentators is understandable but not wholly rational. By most polling measures, Biden has held a clear lead over Trump for months in the vast majority of national and swing (battleground) state polls.
    The race is perceptibly tightening. But with four days to go, Biden’s averaged-out national lead was 7.4%, or about 51% to 43%. As of 29 October, he also led in all the top swing states, namely Florida (by an average 1.9%), Pennsylvania (5.8%), Michigan (8.4%), Wisconsin (7.8%), North Carolina (2.1%) and Arizona (3.4%).
    Some of these margins are narrow. But under winner-takes-all rules, all a state’s electoral-college votes go to the candidate who comes out ahead, even if by only 0.1%. In 2016, Trump won the college, and thus the election, thanks to victories by less than 2% in four states, including Florida with its 29 college votes.
    This time around, polls suggest, the opposite may happen. In other words, Trump could be on the losing end of close results in swing states. There may also be surprises, for example in Georgia and even Texas, states that traditionally vote Republican but are judged competitive this year.
    Given that he lost the 2016 popular vote by nearly three million ballots, Trump may nevertheless pin his hopes on pulling off the electoral-college trick again. He has made plain his willingness to contest the outcome if it goes against him. He could ask the supreme court, with its newly enhanced conservative majority, to adjudicate – as it did in 2000 when George W Bush sneaked past Al Gore.
    Fence-sitters fearful of being caught out again should also study poll data such as Trump’s average approval ratings. Overall, 53% of Americans disapprove of the job he is doing, against 44% who approve. On the economy, he has a 2.3% positive score but on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, he gets a 16.5% negative rating.
    Looked at another way, a current average of all polls suggests 50.4% of Americans have a favourable opinion of Biden, while Trump’s figure is 41.9%. In fact, Trump has not exceeded a 44% favourable rating at any time in his presidency. His under-performance is nothing if not consistent.
    US pollsters also assess voters by gender, race, education and religion. While Trump enjoys strong support from non-college-educated white men and Christian evangelicals, for example, Biden is said to be well ahead among all women voters, especially white suburban women, college graduates and Catholics.
    Biden is also counting on winning a large majority of black voters. It is thought that the Latino vote could split. Democratic successes in the 2018 midterm elections, when the party won control of the House of Representatives, were propelled by these groups.
    Meanwhile, some polling points towards a Democratic takeover in the 100-seat Senate. Republicans, who now hold a slim majority there, have most to lose. Seven out of nine “toss-ups” are held by GOP senators.
    It’s always possible that poll predictions of a Biden victory on Tuesday are overblown. But it seems unlikely that Trump can reverse voting intentions that have been firmly in place for months. Nearly 90 million Americans have already voted. It’s too late to change their minds. Even if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Biden’s margin of advantage is so great that he still wins. Probably. More

  • in

    Biden campaign says Trump supporters tried to force bus off highway

    Trucks with Trump signs and flags surrounded a Biden campaign bus on a Texas highway on Friday and attempted to slow the vehicle down and run it off the road, the Biden campaign said on Saturday.
    Several video clips posted on social media by both Biden and Trump supporters showed the trucks surrounding the bus. The trucks then tried to slow the bus down and run it off the road before staff called 911, according to the Biden campaign.
    The president himself appeared to endorse the behavior of his supporters, tweeting a video of the incident on Saturday evening along with the comment “I LOVE TEXAS!”
    “They’re literally escorting him out of town,” one man says, laughing as he narrates one clip of the incident shared by Trump supporters.
    Some of the Trump supporters surrounding the Biden campaign bus were armed, according to Democratic state representative Rafael Anchía and other observers.
    While the vice-presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, was campaigning in Texas that day, she not on the bus, a spokesman for a state Democratic representative confirmed.
    The incident happened on the I-35 highway in Texas as the bus was traveling from San Antonio to Austin, the Biden campaign said, adding that local law enforcement responded to the campaign’s calls and assisted the bus in reaching its destination.
    The campaign did not identify the law enforcement agency.

    Donald J. Trump
    (@realDonaldTrump)
    I LOVE TEXAS! pic.twitter.com/EP7P3AvE8L

    November 1, 2020

    A group of the same 12 cars has been following the Biden bus all over the country, CBS News Austin reported, citing Texas Democrats.
    Texas state Democrats also said they cancelled a campaign event on Friday evening for “public safety and security reasons.”
    A Democratic campaign event scheduled for Friday evening in Pflugerville was cancelled due to security concerns related to the cars following the Biden bus, Sheryl Cole, a Democratic state representative, tweeted on Friday.
    “Unfortunately, pro-Trump Protesters have escalated well beyond safe limits,” she wrote.
    The decision to cancel the Pflugerville event came after Democrats received reports in the late afternoon that there had been some kind of collision between a pro-Trump vehicle and another vehicle on I-35, André Treiber, a spokesperson for Cole, told the Guardian. The details of the incident on the highway are still not clear, Treiber said, including whether the collision turned out to be “an accident or an escalation”.
    “When you have two hours to make the call, you make the safe call,” Treiber said. “We wanted to make sure everyone was safe.”
    An event with Democratic politicians in Austin was also cancelled on Friday and law enforcement were present to ensure staff could leave the bus safely, the Biden campaign said.
    When the Biden-Harris bus stopped briefly in Austin earlier on Friday, Trump supporters heckled and faced off with Democrats, with Trump supporters calling Biden a “Chinese communist”, CBS Austin reported.
    The cars following the bus include a pro-Trump hearse emblazoned with the slogan, “Vote like your life depends on it,” according to social media and news reports.
    Republicans apologized after Trump supporters brought a casket to a Biden event outside Houston, with a dark-haired mannequin that some viewers saw as representing Kamala Harris, a local Fox News affiliate reported.
    Texans have flocked to the polls in recent days with more than 9.6 million having voted ahead of election day, surpassing the total number of votes cast four years ago.
    In what has been a reliably red state with low voter participation, 30.4% of this year’s ballots have been cast by voters who didn’t participate in 2016 at all, according to Tom Bonier, chief executive of political data firm TargetSmart. Turnout has surged especially among Asian, college-educated white and young Texans.
    “You can definitively say now, more voters under the age of 30 have voted already in Texas than have ever voted in any election, and that’s remarkable,” Bonier said.
    Trump is still slightly favored to win Texas – a state he took by nine points in 2016 – though polls showing a close race have ignited a firestorm of speculation about whether this is the year the state turns blue.
    “We feel good with where we’re at, but we need to keep on going, and you know, we’re not there yet,” said Abhi Rahman, communications director for the Texas Democratic party. More

  • in

    Markets plunge in uncertainty about a second term and a second wave

    Stock market investors are braced for a bumpy ride this week as the likelihood of further dramatic increases in Covid-19 cases across the world collide with the final days of the US presidential election campaign.
    Last week, shares in the US and Europe slumped at their fastest rate since March and analysts said there would be worse to come, after France and Germany imposed strict lockdowns and US states came under pressure to tackle the rising number of deaths.
    “New lockdowns across Europe are being harshly repriced by markets,” said Barclays equity strategist Emmanuel Cau.
    “There is a huge nervousness about a second wave,” added Gabriel Sterne, head of global macro research at consultancy Oxford Economics. “With some government finances beginning to be stretched, the threat of further lockdowns is causing a large degree of anxiety.”
    Heightened levels of concern about the path of the virus began to affect markets three weeks ago. From New York to Paris, London and Tokyo, investors sold heavily from 13 October onwards as each day brought news of higher infection rates and growing numbers of deaths.
    Stricter measures to limit households mingling began to take effect and government ministers of all political stripes began to talk about broader lockdowns being the only answer to the spread of the virus.
    FTSE 100
    The Paris CAC index lost more than 400 points, or 8%, from 13 October to the end of last week while London’s top 100 listed companies slumped 7.5% over the same period. Last week, the Stoxx 600 index of European companies slumped to its lowest level in five months, falling 3.1% in a day.
    In the US, a downturn in stock values that began in September with a panic over the virus turned into a rout after it became clear Congress would not give Donald Trump the stimulus package he craved.
    Without a second trillion-dollar tranche of cash to support closed businesses and millions of unemployed workers, the president’s boast that the recovery was “looking fantastic” lacked substance. The S&P 500 lost more than 8% in the 16 days that followed 13 October.
    It wasn’t the first time this year that fears of a Covid-19 second wave had spooked markets, but the rallies that turned the previous panics into mere blips on a chart appear to be absent this time. Investors have stopped listening to hopeful stories about a vaccine and begun looking at the ripple effect that flows from the widespread adoption of masks and physical distancing.
    As Dhaval Joshi, chief European strategist at BCA Research, says, consumers who cannot use their nose or mouth in close proximity to others are hardly consumers at all.
    He estimates that while lockdowns put a temporary block on economic activity, the face mask and distancing rules will cut as much as 10% off GDP for as long as they are imposed.Stocks in the three hardest-hit sectors – hospitality, retail, and transport – have taken a beating since March.
    Stoxx 600
    However, investors who have switched to the tech industry have shrugged off concerns about the virus. The major tech companies – Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (the owner of Google), Microsoft and Facebook – were behind the 50% increase in the S&P 500 since Trump took the presidency and have generally benefited from the switch to a more digital economy since the lockdowns in March. If US stocks are to recover their momentum, tech will have to perform.
    In the UK, where the FTSE 100 is dominated by banking, insurance and oil and gas companies, share prices have barely recovered after dipping to 5,000 points in March. Across Europe, successful industrial giants such as Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and Siemens have been hit as a six-month recovery in their share prices took a negative turn.
    Donald Trump’s attack lines in the closing weeks of the US presidential campaign have also highlighted the potential downside for investors of a victory for Democratic candidate Joe Biden on 3 November. Desperate to land some punches on his rival, the president has tweeted more than once: “A vote for Joe Biden is a vote for the biggest TAX HIKE in history.”
    So far the claim, which even rightwing US thinktanks say overstates the magnitude of his tax proposals, has failed to shift the polls and they continue to suggest a Biden victory. But distrust of the polls and Trump’s veiled threats to challenge the validity of a narrow Biden victory have only added to stock-market jitters.
    S&P500
    One constant source of light for investors has been the actions of central banks. After a brief flirtation by the US Federal Reserve with increasing interest rates during the first years of the Trump administration, all central banks have cut borrowing costs to zero, and some, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan, to below zero.
    Central banks have also pumped trillions into the financial system to maintain the flow of easy credit to businesses large and small, adding to the sense that whatever Covid-19 may throw at them, companies’ borrowing costs will be negligible.
    This week the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee is expected to add another £100bn to the £745bn of “quantitative easing” – purchasing sovereign and corporate debt from financial institutions – it has already injected into the economy. The US Fed’s board will also meet this week and the signs are that the recent slump in stock values will persuade its policymakers to increase its current $7.2tn (£5.6tn) of QE.
    Last week the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, signalled a further stimulus for the eurozone in December, while the Bank of Japan has said that its determination to print as much money as it takes to keep interest rates below zero is “unlimited”.
    Such support from the central banks will be essential as the virus continues to ravage the populations of Europe and the US. Whether it will be enough to turn the stock market back on to a more positive path is another matter. More