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      in US Politics

      Why Trump cannot delay the election – plus the truth about mail-in voting

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      Donald Trump suggested on Thursday that the November election should be delayed. Can he do that?No. The president cannot act on his own to move the date of the election. The constitution gives state legislatures and Congress the ability to set the dates of elections. It does not give the president any power to do so.Article 2 of the US constitution, which outlines the powers of the executive branch, specifically gives Congress the power to set the “time” when states choose their presidential electors. In 1845, Congress set the day for choosing presidential electors as Tuesday following the first Monday in November in a presidential election year. Congress could move the date of the election by changing the law, but the president could not unilaterally do so.There will be no delay in the #2020Election. Congress sets the election date, and it should not be changed. It will be held on November 3rd, as planned and required by law.— US Rep Rodney Davis (@RodneyDavis) July 30, 2020
      The 20th amendment also says that the four-year term of the president and vice-president ends on 20 January. It also calls for the terms of members of Congress to begin on 3 January.“If there is no new president-elect (or V-P-elect), then the Twentieth Amendment calls for an Acting President on noon on January 20, with Congress having written a statute that would put the Speaker next in line,” Ned Foley, a professor at the Ohio State University, wrote in an email. The speaker is currently Nancy Pelosi.If Trump can’t move the election, why is he tweeting about it?For months, Trump has been laying the groundwork to contest the legitimacy of the 2020 election. He has falsely claimed that mail-in ballots, expected in record numbers this year because of Covid-19, will lead to votes being stolen and the election being “rigged”.There’s no evidence to support Trump’s claims. But it’s likely the president is creating a narrative that there could be something fishy about the election in November to argue the election isn’t legitimate if he loses. There is deep concern about how Trump will deploy this rhetoric in November, especially because there’s likely to be a long wait to get election results. Many experts are worried Trump could use the delay to claim victory before ballots are being counted.Trump’s tweets have also long been considered a distraction tactic from other national news cycles – most recently, the economic downturn.Does Trump have a point that vote by mail will lead to fraud?Trump and other Republicans argue that voting by mail is dangerous because, unlike in-person, a person other than the voter takes custody of the ballot. But several studies have shown that mail-in voting does not lead to more fraud. A Washington Post analysis of 14.6m votes cast in three states that automatically mail a ballot to all voters found just 372 cases of double voting or voting on behalf of a dead person. A different study of voter fraud cases maintained by the conservative Heritage Foundation found just 143 cases of criminal convictions involving absentee ballots over the last 20 years. That amounts to 0.00006% of total votes cast during that period.States have a number of measures in place to prevent fraud. Many states allow voters to track their mail-in ballots, giving them confidence that it was received in the mail. Many states compare the signature on the ballot to the one on file with election officials, a practice, if done carefully, that can prevent fraud. Some states restrict who can collect a mail-in ballot or even require ballots to be signed by a witness or notary (Democrats and voting rights groups are challenging these kinds of restrictions in many states, saying they are needlessly restrictive during Covid-19).Trump and conservative groups argue that even a small number of fraudulent votes can tip an election and have pointed to a recent case of suspected fraud involving mail-in ballots in Paterson, New Jersey, to support that idea. But local officials there told the Washington Post that they don’t believe the problem there is symptomatic of widespread fraud and that it was uncovered by election officials.Will mail-in voting hurt Trump and other Republicans?There’s no evidence that mail-in voting will hurt Trump. A study from Stanford researchers earlier this year showed that mail-in voting on the whole does not benefit Democrats or Republicans. In some states, such as Florida, Republicans have long relied on mail-in voting as a reliable way to get out the vote among supporters.There is some concern that Trump’s rhetoric around mail-in voting could actually put Republicans at a disadvantage this fall. Even as Trump has railed against mail-in voting Republicans have urged their supporters to request mail-in ballots. In Florida and North Carolina, local Republican parties have sent mailers to their supporters with images of selectively edited Trump tweets urging them to request mail-in ballots, according to the Associated Press.Trump keeps highlighting problems with vote by mail, like ballots getting delayed in the mail and rejected for various issues. Is he right?There are legitimate worries about the capacity of states and the United States Postal Service (USPS) to manage elections this fall. Many states are not used to seeing a large volume of mail-in votes and local election officials have been overwhelmed by the flood of absentee ballot requests and the ballots themselves. There is also concern that USPS, which is reportedly considering slowing down mail delivery because of a budget shortfall, will be unable to deliver ballots in a timely manner.States also can reject absentee ballots for a number of reasons – they might arrive late, the signature on the ballot might not match the one on file, or they might not be properly sealed. There’s concern that as more people vote by mail this year, more people are going to have their ballots rejected.These are all valid concerns – but neither Trump nor Republicans in Congress have done much to fix them. States need an estimated $4bn to adequately prepare for vote by mail, but Congress has allocated just $400m so far. The most recent Republican Covid-19 relief proposal in the Senate contained no additional funding to states to help them run elections. Advocates also say USPS desperately needs an injection of federal funding, but that also has stalled in Congress.States can reduce the number of ballot rejections by requiring election officials to notify voters before they reject their ballot, a requirement in place in fewer than 20 states. Many states also require election officials to reject ballots that arrive after election day, regardless of when they were placed in the mail. Democrats have filed a slew of lawsuits across the country seeking to require states to count ballots as long as they are postmarked by election day and arrive in the days after. The Trump campaign has not supported those efforts. More

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      in World Politics

      Content, Not Culture, Separates Americans

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      It has finally come to pass in America that armed bands of federal government thugs in camouflage gear are taking over parts of selected US cities to serve the interests of the country’s fearful “leader” and autocrat-in-chief. At the behest of Trump and his stooge attorney general, unidentified Department of Homeland Security troops have swooped in to bring “law and order” to citizens hoping for some measure of police reform and racial justice. So, while the coronavirus pandemic rages out of control in the face of a chaotic response by the same federal government, Trump has decided to augment his failure by doubling down on leftists, socialists, anarchists and communists. This is real, it is an old playbook and it should be very scary.

      Armed and empowered federal government personnel with absolutely no training in dealing with citizen protests or protesters are being unleashed to confront largely peaceful demonstrators in America who are imploring their government to reduce police violence and address racial injustice. Local leaders and police commanders are confronted with an armed force that they have not asked for and that they do not want. This is American citizens being terrorized by American government personnel, ironically at the command of the federal Department of Homeland Security established to protect us from terrorists.

      America Is a Nation in Darkness

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      To be sure, this is largely theater. But it is theater that should shock anyone in America who smugly thought that the “land of the free” would never look like “other” despotic lands. It has been a very long time since America has come this close to rock bottom. As a nation, America is an international laughingstock, mocked by all those despots we bribed over the years to transform their way into our way, the American way. But guess what? We didn’t see it coming, but their way has now become our way.

      Turn on the news anywhere in the world, and it will feature some daily tale of woe from America. Turn on the news in America, and it is all a tale of American woe. Yet despite the perception that America has found new lows, amid pandemic and social strife, there is a palpable disconnect between the depth of the problems and a serious consensus about the solutions. As is often the case in America, this situation is a big problem in search of a label that will ensure that not much changes anytime soon.

      Every politician and pundit in the land seems to have settled on something called the “culture wars.” It seems so easy in the facile world in which we live to provide cover for complex problems by finding a meaningless catchy phrase that everyone can define for themselves instead of facing reality, particularly the reality of others.

      “Culture Wars”

      Today, everywhere you turn in American politics, “culture wars” are trotted out to explain away all manner of dysfunction in government and society. I am not sure what that term means. “Culture war” has been defined as “a conflict or struggle for dominance between groups within a society or between societies, arising from their differing beliefs, practices, etc.” The “etc.” at the end of this definition should be a clue that “culture war” means essentially whatever you want it to mean. What kind of definition is that?

      Embed from Getty Images

      Before there was the coronavirus pandemic, there was culture everywhere. Want to see a play, go for it. If art or anthropology is your interest, museums abound. Even a movie, particularly when called “cinema” or “film,” can qualify as a good solid cultural experience. Then there is the whole world of international and local cuisines, more cultural experience. Wines, beers, whiskeys, full of culture. When I think of culture, this is what I think of, along with the rich tapestry that defines some of who we are. 

      Somehow a war based on a film I like, what cuisine I choose to eat or the sports team I choose to root for seems trivial and even unlikely. So, a “culture war” must mean something deeper than that. It must mean, for example, that if you pay attention to public health experts in response to a pandemic, you are on one team and if not, you are on the other team. What a clever way to gloss over stupidity and ignorance.

      “Culture war” also implies something ingrained that cannot be altered or influenced by new ideas, new knowledge or new experience. However, the paralyzing conflict that we are enduring in America is routinely influenced by new ideas and new experiences. It is a policy conflict, a conflict over how best to address real human problems with a policy response. And much of it is driven by an individual’s momentary perception of the role of government in meeting these human challenges. 

      I truly dislike Senator Mitch McConnell, but we are both old white men who drink quality bourbon and could share a cigar now and again. What we disagree about is not culture, but content.

      As another example of what I am trying to convey, the urge to own a gun in America surely does not reflect the groupthink at the core of the “culture war” definition. The reasons for arming oneself or choosing not to cross every demographic and social line — that rich white couple in Missouri armed and ready in their front yard as protesters walked by would share little of cultural significance with a poor white subsistence hunter or a young, inner-city, Latino gangbanger. It is highly unlikely that these disparate gun owners ever cross each other’s paths except as casual observers inspecting the oddities of each other’s cultural foundation.

      I am sorry to take a dump on everyone’s latest label, but I am really tired of labels being used as a substitute for responsibility. If you choose to be ignorant, you can meet others like you at your church, your country club, your gym or your city council meeting. Willful ignorance is found in all cultures. It is a shame that it is so common and so misunderstood as the root of much of what separates us.

      That is not a cultural statement. We are not engaged in a “culture war.” We are engaged in a confrontation to define a better America and to find the policy solutions that will lead us there. This is America’s “war” for its future, not some wistful search for cultural reconciliation.

      *[A version of this article was featured on the author’s blog, Hard Left Turn.]

      The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More

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      in Elections

      'Too much power': key moments as tech CEOs face historic US hearing – video

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      Top US tech bosses are told they are censoring political speech, spreading fake news and ‘killing’ the engines of the US economy in a combative and historic congressional hearing.
      Jeff Bezos of Amazon, Tim Cook of Apple, Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook and Sundar Pichai of Google’s parent company, Alphabet, appeared before members of the house judiciary’s antitrust subcommittee and faced intense questioning on everything from market dominance and data surveillance to military contracts and political censorship.
      ‘Too much power’: Congress grills top tech CEOs in combative antitrust hearing

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      in World Politics

      The West Must Help Myanmar Escape China’s Embrace

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      On July 2, Myanmar became the only country in India’s immediate neighborhood to accuse China of interference in its internal affairs. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the commander-in-chief of the Tatmadaw or the combined armed forces of Myanmar, accused China of arming terrorist groups like the Arakan Army (AA) and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in an interview with Russian state-run TV channel Zvezda. He also sought international help to suppress them.

      Rohingya Refugee Camps Are the Next Frontline in COVID-19 Fight

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      Min Aung Hlaing’s statement is telling. It reveals that China is putting unprecedented pressure on its neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It is important to note that Min Aung Hlaing praised China as an “eternal friend” during a visit to Beijing in 2019. He thanked China for its support and for countering international pressure on Myanmar over its treatment of Rohingya civilians, a Muslim minority in Rakhine State.  

      The senior general has turned on Beijing at a sensitive time. China is facing international criticism for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, its detainment of Uighur Muslims in the Xinjiang region and for its aggression toward its neighbors. Yet it could be seen as part of a longer pattern in Myanmar.

      Turning Away from China Not Easy

      More than 10 years ago, the then-ruling military junta decided to reduce Myanmar’s economic dependence on China. At the heart of this decision was the goal of reducing China’s excessive influence in Myanmar.

      When retired General Thein Sein was president from 2010 to 2015, he ushered in initiatives to repair relations with India, the West and ASEAN. At first, these initiatives led to increased international aid, but it was short-lived due to the military crackdown on the Rohingya insurgency in the Rakhine state. Myanmar has faced international condemnation, isolation and sanctions since. By 2017, the brief “honeymoon” was over and China was back to its old games, with the West losing its window of opportunity in Myanmar.

      Embed from Getty Images

      China has been known to support the United Wa State Army (UWSA). The UWSA is an armed force of an ethnic minority that runs an autonomous region with little interference from central authorities. As per the Asia Times, the “UWSA’s relationship with China is a pillar of its autonomy.” China uses the UWSA to exert leverage within Myanmar. It also benefits economically because minerals from the Wa area are exported across the border to China.

      The UWSA is one of the many insurance policies Beijing uses to retain its eminence in Myanmar. Today, it has cultivated the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel laureate who was once the darling of the West. She wants to reverse Thein Sein’s decision in 2011 to suspend work on the Myitsone dam. Beijing’s State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) was supposed to build this $3.6-billion dam at the source of the Irrawaddy River.

      The Myitsone area is said to be the birthplace of the Kachin people, after whom the state is named. They have fought the Tatmadaw since 1962, making itis one of the longest civil wars for a resource-rich region. The Kachin oppose the dam because it could put large parts of their region under water and threaten their livelihoods. As the BBC reports, Suu Kyi “needs to establish prosperity and peace if she is to convince the Burmese people of the benefits of democracy.” The dam might provide irrigation and electricity, boosting the ruling NLD.

      Suu Kyi is turning to China because the West has abandoned her. The days when former US President Barack Obama visited Myanmar and kissed her cheek seem distant. The Rohingya crisis has been roundly criticized by Western media and brought allegations of genocide.

      Chinese President Xi Jinping has stepped into the vacuum and visited Myanmar earlier this year. China has been planning the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor (CEMC) as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. It includes infrastructure such as railways and a deep-sea port at Kyaukphyu on the Bay of Bengal. This port will help China avoid the more vulnerable Straits of Malacca, where it fears being choked off.

      The West Must Change Tack with Myanmar

      Since 1990, Western powers have imposed sanctions on Myanmar for a variety of reasons ranging from human rights violations to lack of democracy. At the same time, they rushed to engage with China despite the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre. Myanmar became an outcast even as China won investments, joint ventures and a red carpet welcome to the World Trade Organization.

      Unlike China, which has had no election for 75 years, Myanmar has held three major elections in 1990, 2010 and 2015. A fourth is due in October this year. Suu Kyi’s NLD has won the past three elections.

      When it comes to the treatment of minorities, China has been worse than Myanmar. Its treatment of Tibetans has been terrible and its persecution of Uighurs makes daily headlines. Therefore, Min Aung Hlaing’s revelation that China is championing the Rohingya — a majority of whom are now sheltering in Bangladesh — is deeply ironic. China is supporting the Arakan Army and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army to destabilize Myanmar and win their support in the future. This policy of interference in Myanmar has implications for both India and Bangladesh. It is in keeping with the Chinese policy of destabilizing India’s northeast region.

      China’s strategy of destabilizing Myanmar even as it makes it an economic vassal has lessons for others. Western powers must provide Myanmar with much-needed investment. The Tatmadaw, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, clearly wants to avoid Chinese domination. Suu Kyi is also no natural ally of China. They have both been pushed into Chinese arms by Western intransigence. Along with investments, a security arrangement involving many countries such as India, Bangladesh and Western powers would help.

      Currently, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (or the Quad) is the best vehicle to guarantee Myanmar’s security. It must thwart the development of CMEC. Otherwise, the Chinese navy will be sitting on India’s doorstep and the Quad would lose strategic advantage in the Indian Ocean. India has already been strengthening its relationship with Myanmar under its “Look East” or “Act East” policy. The relationship has been on the upswing since 2010 and is set to improve further.

      Yangon is sensitive to India’s strategic and security concerns. India has shown the same degree of understanding. For India, Myanmar is the archway to ASEAN and the far east. With the Chinese causing mischief at its borders, Myanmar has increasing strategic importance for India.

      The West must join India in its constructive engagement with Myanmar. In the October elections, Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD is expected to win again. This victory could usher in an era of stability, economic progress and development. Myanmar’s civil and military leadership has no desire to embrace vassal status. It is up to the West to step up and give Myanmar a choice. With the Chinese menace rising by the day, failure to do so would be a historic blunder.

      The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More

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      in US Politics

      US coronavirus deaths near 150,000 as 21 states declared 'red zones'

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      US deaths from the coronavirus were approaching 150,000 on Wednesday, the highest level in the world and rising by about 10,000 in just 11 days, as 21 states enter what the federal government considers the “red zone” of rising infection rates.The nation recorded the deadliest day of the summer in the last 24 hours, with more than 1,200 confirmed coronavirus deaths, the highest daily toll reported by the country since May, according to a tally by Reuters.Covid-19 deaths have risen in the US for three weeks in a row while the number of new cases week-over-week recently fell for the first time since June.The White House coronavirus taskforce coordinator, Deborah Birx, on Tuesday said hotspots threaten regions where cases are controlled.Birx warned: “We can see the virus moving north. What we’re seeing across the south right now is both rural infections, as well as small metros and major metros, simultaneously.”A surge in infections in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas this month has overwhelmed hospitals.Texas has recorded nearly 4,000 deaths so far this month, followed by Florida with 2,690 and California, the most populous state, with 2,500. The Texas figure includes a backlog of hundreds of deaths after the state changed the way it counted Covid-19 deaths. More

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      in US Politics

      'The hotspot of a hotspot of a hotspot': coronavirus takes heavy toll in south Texas

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      Seventy-two death notices sprawled across an entire page of the Monitor newspaper in Hidalgo county recently.The small-print entries, stacked in five tidy columns, didn’t mention Covid-19. But 27 residents of the south Texas community had died from the virus that day, 22 the day before, and 35 the day before that.“I’ve never seen that ever in my life,” recalled John M Kreidler, a local funeral director, whose family has run Kreidler Funeral Home in McAllen for over a century.That was earlier this month, but things have worsened since. The coronavirus pandemic haunts almost everything in this part of the Rio Grande valley, where more than 92% of the almost 900,000 strong population identifies as Hispanic or Latino.Hand-sanitizing machines and big bins with masks and gloves surround shoppers at the regional grocery store. Outside of Nomad Shrine Club, a rundown event space turned drive-thru pop-up, residents join a long line of people in cars in search of a Covid-19 test with rapid results. Even Tex Mex, a gentlemen’s club, has a somber message for patrons: “Clothed Again.”“The Rio Grande Valley has become the hotspot of a hotspot of a hotspot,” said Ivan Melendez, Hidalgo county’s health authority and a practicing clinician. “We’re at the epicenter of the coronavirus in the United States.”Melendez recalled recently encountering a critically ill patient with an alarmingly low pulse. He tried to warn someone, but nurses informed him that a different doctor had already decided not to intervene because they “didn’t expect for [the patient] to survive”.In the United States, where the prevailing mantra for physicians is “do no harm”, that kind of ruthless calculation strikes deep, especially when so many of the lives at stake are medically vulnerable and easily exploited. More