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      Republicans Can’t Decide Whether to Woo or Condemn Young Voters

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      As Democrats keep winning millennials and Gen Z, Republicans are still debating how to get them back.For months before the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats fretted that younger voters might fall into old habits and stay home. The analysis is still a little hazy, but as more data comes in, it looks as if enough young people showed up in many key states to play a decisive role.And now, some Republicans are warning that their party’s poor standing with millennial and Gen-Z voters could become an existential threat. But there’s no consensus about how much, if at all, Republicans’ message needs to change.“We’re going to lose a heck of a lot of elections if we wait until these people become Republicans,” said John Brabender, a G.O.P. consultant who has been sounding the alarm about the party’s deficit with younger voters.By 2024, those two generations combined could make up as much as 40 percent of the voting public, according to some estimates. So far, millennials — some of whom are entering their 40s — are betraying little sign of growing more conservative as they age. If those trends hold, it could make for some daunting electoral math for the right.“This is a multigenerational problem for Republicans,” said John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, who studies the youth vote.Republicans are failing to engage younger voters early enough and on the right platforms, Brabender argued — and when they do, they’re not addressing the issues on their minds. “We need to be much more effective about presenting an alternative side,” he said. “Right now we are just silent.”In private, Republicans can be scathing about the party’s looming demographic challenges; one bluntly said the G.O.P. was relying on a base of older white voters who are dying off, while failing to replace them from among the more racially and ethnically diverse generations coming up behind them. But while some counsel that the party needs to adapt its message accordingly, others argue that it’s more a matter of delivering the same message in new ways.“Republicans have to understand that the issues of that next generation of voters are different,” Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire told me last month.“There are young Republicans out there who really care about the environment,” he added. “It doesn’t mean they want the Green New Deal, but they want to know that leaders are taking good, sensible, responsible, economically smart ways to address transitioning off fossil fuels or clean water and clean air.”Karoline Leavitt, a 20-something former Trump administration aide who lost her bid for a House seat in New Hampshire last year, wrote in a recent Fox News op-ed article that “the most colossal challenge facing the G.O.P. is the inability to resonate with the most influential voting bloc in our electorate — my generation, Generation Z.”Karoline Leavitt, a former Trump administration aide who lost her bid for a House seat in New Hampshire, said that her party was not resonating effectively with her age group, Generation Z.John Tully for The New York TimesBut in a reflection of the same ambivalence that leads Republican politicians like Senator Ted Cruz of Texas to mock the use of gender pronouns, Leavitt also argued that members of Generation Z had been “indoctrinated to be faithless, anti-American, self-proclaimed socialists who care about changing their gender more than paying their bills.”Millennials and Gen-Z voters came of age during tumultuous times — the Great Recession and the rise of movements like Occupy Wall Street, then the Trump presidency and the coronavirus pandemic — and share a skepticism of capitalism and a belief in the value of government to solve problems, Della Volpe noted.And on social issues, younger voters are much more in tune with Democrats. They value racial and ethnic diversity and L.G.B.T.Q. rights at higher rates than older voters. Among those aged 18 to 29, three-quarters say that abortion should be legal in most cases. Younger voters may not love the Democratic Party, but they like the Republican Party even less.“You’re not going to be able to engage them on policy specifics unless you meet them on their values,” Della Volpe said. “Young people aren’t even going to consider voting for you if deny that climate change exists.”A ‘shortsighted’ focusThe Republican Party has sporadically tried to address this problem, Brabender said, but has made “no effort to do anything about it on an organized basis.”Which is not to say that nobody has tried. The Republican National Committee’s post-2012 autopsy concluded that the party was seen as “old and detached from pop culture” and urged Republicans to “fundamentally change the tone we use to talk about issues and the way we are communicating with voters.” Then the party nominated Donald Trump, who did the opposite.When Representative Elise Stefanik of New York entered Congress in 2015 at just 30 years old, she convened experts to brief Republicans on the views of millennial voters. In 2017, a task force she helped lead produced a report, “Millennials and the G.O.P.: Rebuilding Trust With an Untapped Electorate,” that made modest recommendations for addressing the cost of college education, but sidestepped more thorny cultural issues.In the years since, as Stefanik has climbed the ranks of Republican leadership, she has rebranded herself from a forward-thinking change agent in the party to a devoted acolyte of Trump, whose approval ratings among younger voters are abysmal.There are upstart groups on the far right like Turning Point USA, which has positioned itself as the youth wing of the Trump coalition. Representative Dan Crenshaw, a 38-year-old Republican from Texas, has begun holding annual youth summit meetings, which tend to draw a more moderate crowd. And there are venerable organizations like the Young America’s Foundation, whose roots date to the days of William F. Buckley Jr., the founder of National Review.The foundation is now led by Scott Walker, the former governor of Wisconsin, who has oriented the group toward a longer-term approach of waging a battle of ideas from college campuses all the way down to middle schools.“The immediate reaction from the consultant class is going to be, ‘We need slicker digital ads or new youth coalitions,’” Walker said.“I think that’s really shortsighted,” he added, arguing that “years and years of liberal indoctrination” in the education system had led to a monoculture that silenced conservative ideas. “These are young people who have heard nothing but the left’s point of view.”A crowd at an event in Tampa, Fla., hosted by Turning Point USA, which has positioned itself as the youth wing of the Trump coalition.Todd Anderson for The New York TimesWhat the numbers showThere’s a robust debate among analysts about the depth of Republicans’ problems, as my colleagues have reported. Pew Research has found that while Biden won voters under 30 by a 24-point margin in 2020, that was actually a retreat from 2016 and 2018.Last year, according to one set of exit polls — Edison Research’s data, as analyzed by researchers at Tufts University — voters under 30 overwhelmingly chose Democrats. In Senate races, Democrats captured 76 percent of the under-30 vote in Arizona, 70 percent in Pennsylvania and 64 percent in Nevada. Nationwide, voters under 30 preferred Democrats in House races by 28 percentage points.Republicans find comfort in Associated Press/VoteCast data, where the nationwide gap was far smaller among voters aged 18 to 29: 53 percent for Democrats versus 41 percent for Republicans. In a postelection analysis, The A.P. concluded that young people’s enthusiasm for Democrats “may be waning,” noting that younger voters tend to be much less tethered to party identities than older generations.Young people are notoriously difficult to survey. Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, a researcher at Tufts, said her team used the Edison data because it tracked census numbers more closely and dated further back in time, though she acknowledged that it was an “imperfect” barometer.What about turnout? According to an analysis of voter-file data from TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm, voters under 30 made up a larger percentage of the electorate in 2022 than they did in 2014 across seven battleground states. In Michigan, for instance, their share grew from just 6.9 percent in 2014 to 12.2 percent in 2022. In Nevada, it grew from 5.9 percent in 2014 to 13.2 percent last year. And while those numbers represent a slight retreat from 2018, that was a huge year for turnout, fueled on the Democratic side by a nationwide backlash to Trump’s presidency.Tom Bonier, the chief executive of TargetSmart, also pointed to signs that registration among young people had surged at two distinct points in 2022: after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, and after President Biden passed an executive order wiping out some student debt.Before the election, the Harvard Youth Poll found that 59 percent of young Americans believed that their rights were under attack — reflecting their reaction to the abortion decision and their worries about election deniers linked to Trump.Overall, Bonier said, “The lesson we learned writ large in the election is that the stain of Trump on the party had an impact even without him even on the ballot.”What to read tonightKevin McCarthy has gained steam in his bid to become speaker and is trying to muster enough support before 10 p.m. Eastern, when the House will resume voting. Follow live updates.South Carolina’s First Congressional District is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander and its boundaries must be redrawn for elections to be held, a panel of federal judges ruled. Michael Wines explains.The Biden administration proposed to tighten limits on fine particulate matter, a deadly air pollutant also known as soot that is responsible for thousands of premature deaths every year, Coral Davenport reports.Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

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      Maxwell Frost, First Gen Z Congressman, Gets His Bearings on Capitol Hill

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      In the weeks after his election, the youngest member of the incoming House has learned just how different his lifestyle and perspective is from his older colleagues’.WASHINGTON — He is a fan of early-2000s rock, which was popular when he was in kindergarten. He is still working to get his undergraduate degree. And he is couch surfing to save money as he starts his new job, which is representing Florida’s 10th Congressional District in the United States House of Representatives.Representative-elect Maxwell Frost, a 25-year-old Afro-Cuban progressive activist from Orlando, is about to be the youngest member of Congress. He has swapped the megaphone he once used to lead protests for a seat in one of the nation’s most powerful institutions, where he will be the first member of Generation Z to serve.In a body where the average age was more than twice his (58.4 years old in the most recent Congress), Mr. Frost is starting with a keen sense of mission.“I think we all have this call to action, and you feel like you have to do something,” he said on a recent Wednesday, as he made his way to a hotel room to freshen up before getting his official head shot taken.The something that motivated Mr. Frost, he said, was the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in 2012, when he was in high school, which killed 26 people, most of them young children, and gave rise to a grim and nearly omnipresent ritual of active shooter drills for primary and secondary school students across the country.Mr. Frost, who is of Lebanese, Puerto Rican and Haitian descent and was adopted at birth in 1997, grew up in Orlando with a mother who was a Cuban refugee and schoolteacher and a father who was a Kansas-born musician.At an early age, he came to love music and the arts, eventually hosting a music festival with a friend. But he found another passion in political activism, volunteering in 2012 with President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign and then in 2016 with presidential campaigns for Senator Bernie Sanders, independent of Vermont, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.After enrolling at Valencia College in Orlando in 2015, he took a break in 2019 to work for the American Civil Liberties Union, and later became a national organizer for the youth-led advocacy group March for Our Lives, which focuses on enacting stricter gun control measures. He drove for Uber to make ends meet.In January 2021, a political operative approached urging him to seek public office, but Mr. Frost said what ultimately persuaded him to do so was connecting with his biological mother several months later.Mr. Frost jogging to the front of the room to participate in the office lottery for new members in the Capitol last week.Kenny Holston for The New York TimesMr. Frost looking at a potential office after the lottery.Kenny Holston for The New York TimesDuring the conversation, Mr. Frost learned that his biological mother, who had seven other children and gave birth to him at the most vulnerable point in her life, had given him up because she did not have the resources to care for him.“Just hearing about the hardships she went through as a woman of color really solidified my beliefs,” Mr. Frost said. “I hung up the phone and said, ‘I’m running for Congress.’”A New U.S. Congress Takes ShapeFollowing the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats maintained control of the Senate while Republicans flipped the House.Divided Government: What does a split Congress mean for the next two years? Most likely a gridlock that could lead to government shutdowns and economic turmoil.Democratic Leadership: House Democrats elected Hakeem Jeffries as their next leader, ushering in a generational shift that includes women and people of color in all the top posts for the first time.G.O.P. Leadership: After a midterms letdown, Representative Kevin McCarthy and Senator Mitch McConnell faced threats to their power from an emboldened right flank.Ready for Battle: An initiative by progressive groups called Courage for America is rolling out a coordinated effort to counter the new Republican House majority and expected investigations of the Biden administration.He declared his candidacy two months later. Mr. Frost said he was moved to run “for people like my biological mother, for my family and for my district,” and wanted to be in a position “to fight to ensure that the condition doesn’t exist for anybody.”Mr. Frost’s win in the midterm elections was a bright spot for Democrats, who lost ground in Florida and narrowly lost their majority in the House. He adds to a diverse field of newly elected representatives from underrepresented communities.Not everyone has been dazzled by Mr. Frost’s youthful enthusiasm. His Republican challenger, Calvin Wimbish, suggested that he was unfit to serve in Congress. “What has he been able to do?” Mr. Wimbish asked in an interview with Spectrum News. “Has he managed people, resources, has he had time? Has he had the exposure to learning from others?”Mr. Frost is taking over the distinction of youngest member of Congress from Representative Madison Cawthorn, Republican of North Carolina, who was elected in 2020 at the age of 25. But the Florida Democrat is not the youngest member of Congress in history. That record, which is unlikely ever to be broken, belongs to William C.C. Claiborne, who may have been 22 when he was elected to the House in 1797. (There is some dispute over his age, but no question that he was under 25.)While the Constitution mandates that House members be at least 25 years old, the House chose to seat Mr. Claiborne anyway.With his youth come some unique challenges for Mr. Frost. He is spending his first few weeks in Washington crashing with friends as he searches for an affordable place to live, as he will not be paid for a few weeks, until the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3.When the moment is right, he said he would rent a studio apartment within walking or electric scooter distance of the Capitol.Mr. Frost viewing an apartment last week. He plans to couch surf during his first few weeks in Washington.Kenny Holston for The New York TimesBut his age has also given him a leg up in some areas. During the digital training portion of new member orientation over the past two weeks, he managed to set up his personal technology in half the time of his older colleagues.He surprised his fellow members-elect last week as he captured moments throughout the day with 0.5 selfies, a new fad among the Gen Z set that entails taking iPhone photos using the back camera. And he’s had the privilege of being “slimed” by Nickelodeon and getting a shout-out from the English pop band The 1975 while at one of the band’s concerts.On Capitol Hill, he has sometimes felt like a kid trying to get to know a new school. He got lost in the Capitol Visitor Center — as the soundtrack of the Broadway musical “Hamilton” blared in his headphones — and had the dizzying experience of meeting new and current members during informational sessions throughout the Capitol complex.Representative Val B. Demings, the Florida Democrat whom he will succeed, has offered him mentorship and described him in an interview as “beyond his years.”“He takes the job seriously, but I don’t think he takes himself too seriously,” Ms. Demings said. “If he can keep that kind of spirit, even on the rough days and nights here, he’ll be OK.”Her main piece of advice for the youngster: Talk to different people and look across the aisle for unlikely allies.Representative Mark Pocan, Democrat of Wisconsin, who visited Mr. Frost before the primary election to help his campaign, said he would fit right in in Congress.“You know, for someone who is 25, he’s kind of an old soul,” Mr. Pocan said, adding that he had been struck by Mr. Frost’s “thoughtfulness of how he looked at issues and his progressive values.”Mr. Frost was an activist and volunteered for several presidential campaigns before running for Congress.Kenny Holston for The New York TimesMr. Frost will be the youngest member of the 118th Congress.Kenny Holston for The New York TimesMr. Sanders was among the first to reach out to congratulate him after the election was called, Mr. Frost said, recounting how he knew his former boss was calling when the Vermont area code popped up on his phone.“He has the potential to be a great leader, speaking to the young people in this country,” Mr. Sanders said of Mr. Frost in an interview.For now, Mr. Frost is focused on some immediate tasks. He has about a year left of his undergraduate education at Valencia College, and he said he intends to resume his coursework at some point.Over the next two years, Mr. Frost aims to lean into his love for grass-roots organizing by building a strong local presence with an accessible district office. At the Capitol, he said his goal was to make incremental steps toward addressing Democratic priorities such as improving health care, enacting gun control measures and building community violence intervention programs.In the next few weeks, he will hire a staff, move into his new corner office in the Longworth Building across from the Capitol and learn how to balance his administrative budget and manage his time as a representative.“Let’s start where we can,” he said, “and not lose sight of our values.” More

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      What’s on the Minds of 12 Young Voters

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      Whether they are marching against gun violence, advocating stronger action against climate change or pushing for or against abortion rights, young Americans of all political stripes have been engaged in some of the prominent social movements of the 21st century.Electorally, however, they have often struggled to make their voices heard, despite turning out in increasing numbers in 2018 and 2020.A New York Times/Siena College poll found that likely voters younger than 30 planned to support a Democrat for Congress by a 12-point margin in next month’s elections, compared with a narrow advantage for Republicans among likely voters at large. But, compared with older generations, they were less likely to say they would vote at all.Twelve voters in their 20s, living in states with competitive Senate or governor’s races, spoke with photographers for The New York Times about the issues they considered most important. Though President Biden’s student debt forgiveness plan had been in the news, none said it was a top issue. Instead, they discussed their views on abortion, climate, the economy and immigration — or a search for, as one 24-year-old Wisconsin woman put it, “what’s best for the collective versus the singular.” — Maggie AstorGeorgiaSeeking ‘the Least Worst Options’Nicole Craine for The New York TimesJayda Priester, 25, lives in Atlanta and sells life insurance. She said she had no political affiliation and had not decided whom she wanted for governor.“There is no one who made me feel I have to vote for them yet. I am looking at the least worst options.” “The most important issue for me is defunding the police. I am hugely for defunding the police and putting other resources available for crisis management, de-escalation.”—WisconsinFixing Tractors, Worried About FuelJamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesKyle Moore, 28, lives in Poynette. He is a tractor technician who identifies as a Republican and who wants “to see the fuel prices go back down” to ease the strain on farmers and ranchers.“I feel like the 20s generation does not express or voice their opinion as strongly as they should, like the older generations. They hold back more and don’t come out and voice or vote clearly enough to see the country succeeding.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With elections next month, a Times/Siena poll shows that independents, especially women, are swinging toward the G.O.P. despite Democrats’ focus on abortion rights as voters worry about the economy.Georgia Governor’s Race: A debate between Gov. Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams produced a substantive hour of policy discussion. Here are five takeaways.Aggressive Tactics: Right-wing leaders are calling on election activists to monitor voting in the midterm elections in search of evidence to confirm unfounded theories of election fraud.Jill Biden: The first lady, who has become a lifeline for Democratic candidates trying to draw attention and money in the midterms, is the most popular surrogate in the Biden administration.—PennsylvaniaA Nurse With Dreams of Health Care EquityHannah Beier for The New York TimesKadie Mercier, 29, of Philadelphia is a registered nurse in the emergency department of a hospital in her city. She is a registered Democrat.“As an emergency-department nurse, we see people come in all the time that are in very poor health because they’re unable to afford their medications or find a primary care provider. And so it’s something that I’m really passionate about, making sure these people can avoid coming to the emergency department.”—WisconsinBipartisan and Hoping for Change on ImmigrationJamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesChris Ahmann, 18, of Madison is a first-year mechanical engineering student at the University of Wisconsin and a first-generation Filipino American.“I like something that’s a little more bipartisan. Maybe more independent. Because there’s more variety than limiting yourself, because it’s more of a spectrum than just binary.”“Immigration is really close to me. I’m one of the only people in my family who is in the U.S. right now. I was born here, but they want to come here to the U.S. I’d like to see it easier for people.”—PennsylvaniaAgainst Abortion, Concerned About JobsHannah Beier for The New York TimesEmily McDermott, 27, of Lansdowne works from home as a seamstress. She has a daughter and is pregnant. She is a registered Democrat but plans to vote for Doug Mastriano, a hard-right Republican, for governor.“Life begins in the womb, and I think that that is an inalienable right. And I don’t think it’s up to us to decide who lives and dies.”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Regarding Mr. Mastriano: “It was during the shutdown, and I lost my job because of the pandemic. And so, he was the only one kind of fighting to get everybody to reopen back jobs.”—New HampshireVoting to Slow Climate Change, a ‘Time Bomb’John Tully for The New York TimesGriffin Brunette, 24, lives in Hampton and works in marketing. He is a registered Democrat.On climate change: “It’s a ticking time bomb. We do have the power to make a form of change and make our voices heard, and it all starts with voting.”“I think a huge issue in getting people on board with what is going on is that it’s become a political thing, and I think that people on both sides should realize the future is in our hands. And we can do something about that by setting these Democrat/Republican things aside.”—MichiganKeeping It Personal and Not Ruling Out TrumpEmily Elconin for The New York TimesJared Tate, 28, left, and Derrick Whitehead, 29, of Ypsilanti are high school friends who produce a podcast. Mr. Tate is a registered Democrat and works at Target while studying communications at Eastern Michigan University.“If Trump runs again, I will consider voting for him, mainly because of the financial aspect of it. Trump did a lot for small-business owners that a lot of people don’t know about. I voted for Biden last time and wanted to give him a chance.”Mr. Whitehead is not affiliated with a party and voted to re-elect President Donald J. Trump in 2020.“I honestly don’t know if I am going to vote or not.”“I look at it more as personal. If it doesn’t have anything to do with me and my inner circle or family, it doesn’t concern me.”—Wisconsin‘What’s Best for the Collective Versus the Singular’Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesEmily Matzke, 24, lives in Prairie du Sac. She does not identify with a political party and works in agricultural marketing.“I just wish people just had more of an ability to compromise and know that not everything will be perfect for everyone, but if it could be better for the majority, then it’s at least what is best for all.”“I feel we can only move forward as kind people and a country if we can figure out a way to be kind. What’s best for the collective versus the singular.”—ArizonaSeeing a Future in an ‘Immigrant-Friendly’ PastRebecca Noble for The New York TimesAngel Martinez, 20, of Tempe is studying political science with a minor in Spanish at Arizona State University and works as a night desk attendant at his apartment complex. He is a Democrat, with immigration, climate and voting rights his biggest issues.“We just need to get back to our roots of being immigrant-friendly in this country. A lot of people have a really bad sentiment towards immigrants, especially immigrants from Latin American countries. Especially Mexico, El Salvador, Honduras, all those countries, just because there’s this notion that jobs are being stolen or welfare is being stolen.”—PennsylvaniaBelieving in Abortion Rights: ‘How I Was Raised’Hannah Beier for The New York TimesJake Heller, 26, of Philadelphia is a registered Democrat who works as a cheesemonger at Reading Terminal Market.“What issues are most important to me? Probably the classics: abortion, you know, bodily autonomy, the environment and I’d say gun regulation.”On abortion rights: “I think it’s important to kind of be on the forefront of voting for that and just having a strong opinion on that. And that’s just kind of how I was raised.”—WisconsinProviding for a Son and His EducationTaylor Glascock for The New York TimesKelly Ocotl, 28, of Milwaukee is an executive assistant who attended a rally where Senator Ron Johnson appeared with Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.“We have a son, so education is a big one. But the economy as well, you know, just trying to provide for our family is really important and how it’s kind of tanking right now.”—PennsylvaniaHuman Rights, and Food for a City’s HomelessHannah Beier for The New York TimesKish Williams, 25, of Philadelphia works as a dog handler and supervisor, is not affiliated with a party.“I know everyone’s, you know, talking about L.G.B.T. politics, trans rights, trans issues, trans protection and medication, and, being a trans individual myself, that’s a concern for me. And also, for Philadelphia specifically, I’m really interested in seeing what people are doing with the food and homelessness crisis we’re having right now.” More

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      In Kenya’s Elections, Young Voters Aren’t Turning Out, and Who Can Blame Them?

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      NAIROBI, Kenya — It was a sight to behold. Scores of young people, excited and expectant, gathered in Nairobi, chanting slogans and waving banners. But it was no entertainment: They were there for a campaign rally. In the months leading up to Kenya’s elections on Tuesday, the scene was repeated across the country. Here, it seemed, were the future custodians of the country taking a lively interest in the political process.But appearances can be deceptive. Some, it turned out, attended only on the promise of payment; others were paid to gather crowds from nearby. The actual enthusiasm of the country’s young, in contrast to the contrived air of engagement, is rather cooler. While those age 18 to 35 make up 75 percent of the population, only about 40 percent of people from that cohort have registered to vote.For some, this lackluster showing was evidence of worrisome apathy among the country’s youth. And sure enough, the early signs from Tuesday’s vote, where turnout across the board was low, at around 60 percent, suggest that the young stayed home in large numbers. But the charge of apathy misses the point. For many young Kenyans, refusing to vote is not a result of disinterest or indifference or even ignorance. It is instead — as Mumbi Kanyago, a 26-year-old communications consultant, told me — a “political choice.”You can see why. The two leading candidates in Kenya’s election, William Ruto and Raila Odinga, who are neck and neck in the early count, are both established members of the political class. They sit at the apex of a system that has failed to counter endemic youth unemployment, skyrocketing debt and a rising cost of living. In the eyes of many young people, expecting change from such stalwarts of the status quo is a fool’s errand. If the choice is a false one, they reason, better to refuse it altogether than collude in a fiction.On the surface, the two candidates seem pretty different. Mr. Ruto has branded himself a “hustler,” sharing stories about how he sold chicken by the roadside before his rise through the ranks to businessman and political leader — a back story that has earned him support from members of the working class, despite allegations of corruption. Mr. Odinga, by contrast, is political royalty. This is his fifth attempt to win the presidency, and his years of experience and exposure have earned him a kind of star power few can match.But the differences obscure the underlying similarities. Mr. Ruto, the newer candidate, has been deputy president for nearly a decade. Mr. Odinga is not only the country’s most famous opposition leader but has also been backed by the current president. Both candidates profess — often when animatedly addressing crowds — to care deeply about the electorate and its troubles. Yet in the eyes of many young voters, both belong to the same flawed system. They have no faith that either could seriously change things for the better.With good reason. In the dozens of conversations I had with young Kenyans, one refrain kept coming up: Politicians are out for themselves, not the country. In their view, self-interest and financial advancement are why politicians seek office. There’s something to it, certainly. The country regularly ranks poorly in corruption scores, and the two leading parties have members accused of graft and corruption in their ranks. The candidates like to talk about tackling corruption: Mr. Ruto has said he would deal with the problem “firmly and decisively,” and Mr. Odinga has branded corruption one of the “four enemies” of the country. But given their tolerance of dubious behavior, these promises fall flat.Kenya can ill afford such self-serving leadership. Parts of the country are experiencing what the United Nations has described as “the worst drought in 40 years” in the Horn of Africa, with some 4.1 million people in Kenya suffering from severe food insecurity. The cost of food and fuel, thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has risen sharply. If that were not bad enough, the country — in part because of the government’s borrowing spree over the past decade — is heavily laden with debt, and inflation is at a five-year high. But in response to this troubling situation, the candidates have offered little more than bickering and bragging.In the absence of substantial policy, there could at least be symbolic representation of the young. But there too things are lacking. In 2017, Kenyans age 18 to 34 made up roughly 24 percent of all candidates. Less than a tenth of them won office, under 3 percent of the total. With such a tiny number of young people making the cut in electoral politics, who could blame the young, without representation or recourse to a more responsive state, for turning away?Still, young people in the country have found other ways to engage in political work — in community projects, mutual aid programs and social centers. One example is the Mathare Social Justice Center in Nairobi, which aims to promote social justice for the community living in Mathare, an area historically subject to police brutality, extrajudicial killings and land grabs.In this way, Kenyans are in step with other developments on the continent, where young people have sought alternative means to make their voices heard. For instance, young Sudanese have been bravely organizing and leading protests since October last year, demanding a return to civilian rule. In Nigeria, the young are at the forefront of a movement against police brutality that erupted with the enormous #EndSARS protests in 2020. And young people in Guinea played a huge part in the 2019-20 mass protests against the president’s attempt to run for a third term.Of course, the right to vote and participate in elections is a hard-won privilege, which many around the world are denied. But demanding that people vote, no matter how limited the candidates, is akin to exhorting people to joyously crown their oppressors. Citizens, after all, have the right to choose. And democracy does not begin and end at the ballot box.Samira Sawlani (@samirasawlani) is a freelance journalist and a columnist at The Continent.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Los votantes jóvenes están hartos de sus líderes (mucho) mayores

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      Representados por políticos que a menudo les triplican la edad, muchos votantes menores de 30 años en Estados Unidos están ansiosos de rostros e ideas nuevos.Alexandra Chadwick fue a las urnas en 2020 con un solo objetivo: sacar a Donald Trump. A sus 22 años, en su primera experiencia como votante, vio a Joe Biden más como salvaguardia que como una figura política inspiradora, era alguien capaz de contener las acciones que amenazaban el acceso al aborto, el control de armas y la política climática.Dos años después, la Corte Suprema ha erosionado las protecciones federales en estos tres temas, y la conclusión de Chadwick es que tanto Biden como otros líderes demócratas no tienen la imaginación y la voluntad necesarias para contratacar. El problema es la brecha generacional, que no le pareció tan importante en otro momento, pero que ahora le parece abismal.“¿Cómo puedes dirigir correctamente a tu país si tu mente está atascada en una época que ya pasó hace 50, 60 o 70 años?”, cuestionó Chadwick, quien trabaja en servicios al cliente en Rialto, California, en referencia al gran número de líderes septuagenarios que dirigen su partido. “No es lo mismo, y las personas no son iguales, así que tus ideas antiguas ya no van a funcionar”.Si bien hay electores de todas las edades que cuestionan el liderazgo político del país, el descontento de pocos grupos se percibe tan unánime como el de los jóvenes.Una encuesta de The New York Times y Siena College reveló que solo el uno por ciento de los jóvenes entre 18 y 29 años aprueba decididamente la manera en que Biden hace su trabajo. No solo eso, sino que el 94 por ciento de los demócratas menores de 30 años afirman que quieren que otro candidato se postule dentro de dos años. De todos los grupos de edad, una mayor proporción de electores jóvenes dijo que no votarían por Biden ni por Trump en el supuesto de que se enfrentaran de nuevo en 2024.Los números son una advertencia clara para los demócratas, que batallan para evitar una paliza en las elecciones intermedias de noviembre. Los jóvenes, que desde hace tiempo han sido la facción menos segura de la coalición del partido, marcharon a favor del control de armas, se congregaron para expresarse en contra de Trump y ayudaron a impulsar una oleada demócrata en las elecciones intermedias de 2018. Esos jóvenes todavía apoyan a los demócratas en temas que no dejan de ganar importancia.Pero cuatro años después, muchos se perciben indiferentes y desanimados; solo un 32 por ciento de ellos afirma que está “casi seguro” de votar en noviembre, según la encuesta. Casi la mitad cree que su voto no hizo ninguna diferencia.Algunas entrevistas con estos jóvenes revelan que las tensiones generacionales les causan frustración. Son electores que han alcanzado la edad adulta en un ambiente de enfrentamientos raciales, conflictos políticos, inflación elevada y una pandemia, y han tenido que recurrir a políticos que les triplican la edad en busca de ayuda.Con frecuencia, esos dirigentes mayores hablan de la defensa de las instituciones y la recuperación de normas, mientras que los electores jóvenes dicen que están más interesados en los resultados. Muchos comentaron que desean más cambios grandes, como un tercer partido viable y una nueva generación de líderes jóvenes. Señalan que ansían la implementación de medidas innovadoras para resolver los problemas que heredarán, en vez de regresar a lo que funcionó en el pasado.“Los miembros del Congreso, todos ellos, sin duda, han atravesado épocas muy traumáticas en su vida y de caos en el país”, explicó John Della Volpe, quien estudia las opiniones de los jóvenes en su calidad de director de encuestas en el Instituto de Política de la Escuela Harvard Kennedy. “Pero los miembros del Congreso también han visto a Estados Unidos en sus mejores épocas. En esos momentos nos unimos. Eso es algo que la generación Z no ha tenido”.A sus 79 años, Biden es el presidente más viejo en la historia de Estados Unidos y uno de los muchos dirigentes del Partido Demócrata que rondan los ochenta años o ya son octogenarios. Nancy Pelosi, presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes, tiene 82 años. El líder de la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes, Steny Hoyer, tiene 83 años. Chuck Schumer, el líder de la mayoría en el Senado, de 71 años, es el bebé de la camada. Trump tiene 76 años.En una repetición de las elecciones de 2020, Biden obtendría una delantera del 38 al 30 por ciento entre los jóvenes, pero el 22 por ciento de los electores de entre 18 y 29 años afirmaron que no votarían si esos candidatos fueran las opciones, por mucho la mayor proporción de entre los diferentes rangos de edad.Para Ellis McCarthy, “ya sea Biden o Trump, nadie trata de ser una voz para las personas como yo”.Brian Kaiser para The New York TimesEsos votantes incluyen a Ellis McCarthy, de 24 años, que tiene algunos trabajos de medio tiempo en Bellevue, Kentucky. McCarthy dice que anhela un gobierno que sea “completamente nuevo”.El padre de McCarthy, electricista y miembro del sindicato que enseña en una escuela técnica local, conoció a Biden el verano pasado cuando el presidente visitó las instalaciones de capacitación. Los dos hombres hablaron sobre su sindicato y su trabajo, dos cosas que amaba. No mucho después, su padre se enfermó, fue hospitalizado y, después de su recuperación, quedó amargado por el sistema de atención médica y lo que su familia considera como el fracaso de las estrategias de Biden para arreglarlo.“Parece que ya sea Biden o Trump, nadie trata de ser una voz para las personas como yo”, dijo. “Los trabajadores se sienten abandonados”.Denange Sanchez, estudiante de 20 años en el Eastern Florida State College, de Palm Bay, Florida, opina que Biden es “insulso” en sus promesas.La madre de Sanchez es propietaria de una empresa de servicios domésticos de limpieza y se encarga de la mayor parte del trabajo de limpieza, con ayuda de Denange en lo posible. Toda su familia (incluida su madre, que padece una enfermedad del corazón y tiene un marcapasos) ha batallado con brotes de COVID-19 sin seguro médico. Incluso cuando estaba enferma, su madre estaba despierta a todas horas preparando remedios caseros, relató Sanchez.“Todos decían que íbamos a acabar con este virus. Biden hizo esas promesas. Pero ahora ya nadie toma en serio la pandemia, aunque todavía nos está rondando. Es de lo más frustrante”, se quejó. Sanchez, que estudia medicina, también incluyó la eliminación de la deuda estudiantil en la lista de promesas que Biden no ha cumplido.Los políticos y encuestadores demócratas son muy conscientes del problema que enfrentan con los votantes jóvenes, pero insisten en que hay tiempo para involucrarlos en los temas que les interesan. Las recientes decisiones de la Corte Suprema que eliminan el derecho constitucional al aborto, limitan la capacidad de los estados para controlar el porte de armas de fuego y recortan los poderes regulatorios del gobierno federal sobre las emisiones que contribuyen al calentamiento climático recién ahora están comenzando a arraigarse en la conciencia de los votantes, dijo Jefrey Pollock, encuestador de los demócratas de la Cámara de Representantes.“Ya no estamos hablando de una teoría; estamos hablando de una Corte Suprema que está haciendo retroceder al país 50 años o más”, dijo. “Si no podemos transmitir ese mensaje, entonces deberíamos avergonzarnos”.En contraste con los electores maduros, que en general identificaron a la economía como uno de sus principales intereses, para los votantes jóvenes solo es un tema más, relacionado en cierta medida con el aborto, el estado de la democracia estadounidense y las políticas aplicables a las armas.Eso pone en un dilema a los candidatos demócratas de distritos en los que las elecciones serán muy reñidas, muchos de los cuales creen que su mensaje para las elecciones debería concentrarse casi por completo en la economía, pero eso podría costarles el grupo vigorizante de los jóvenes.Tate Sutter dice que está frustrado por la inacción sobre el cambio climático.Rozette Rago para The New York TimesTate Sutter, de 21 años, siente esa total falta de conexión. Originario de Auburn, California, e inscrito en el Middlebury College en Vermont, Sutter relató que cuando vio los fuegos artificiales del Cuatro de Julio sintió escalofríos por todo el cuerpo, pues pronto iniciará la temporada de incendios y el plan enérgico del gobierno federal para combatir el calentamiento global sigue estancado en el Congreso. Contó que no tenía ninguna duda de que podía ver un incendio incipiente en las colinas del sur.“El clima es un tema muy importante en mi perspectiva política”, comentó, consternado porque los demócratas no hablan mucho del tema. “Es muy frustrante”.Sutter dijo que entendía los límites de los poderes de Biden con un Senado dividido. Pero también dijo que entiende el poder de la presidencia y no que Biden lo ejerza de manera efectiva.“Con la edad ganas mucha experiencia y sabiduría y aprendes cómo haces las cosas. Pero, en cuanto a la percepción, parece estar desconectado de la gente de mi generación”, dijo.Después de años de sentir que los políticos no se dirigen a personas como él, Juan Flores, de 23 años, dijo que ha decidido concentrar su atención en iniciativas locales sometidas a votación relacionadas con problemas como la indigencia o la falta de vivienda, pues considera que es más probable que tengan cierto impacto en su vida. Flores cursó estudios de análisis de datos, pero conduce un camión de entregas para Amazon en San José, California. En esa zona, el precio promedio de las casas supera el millón de dólares, por lo que es muy difícil (prácticamente imposible) que los residentes sobrevivan con un solo ingreso.“Me parece que muchos políticos vienen de familias acomodadas”, mencionó. “La mayoría de ellos no comprende en realidad todo lo que vivimos la mayoría de los ciudadanos estadounidenses”.La encuesta Times/Siena College descubrió que el 46 por ciento de los electores jóvenes prefieren que los demócratas controlen el Congreso, mientras que el 28 por ciento quiere que los republicanos lo hagan. Más de uno de cada cuatro jóvenes, el 26 por ciento, no sabe o no quiere decir qué partido prefiere que controle el Congreso.Iván Chávez planea participar en las elecciones de noviembre, pero aún no sabe por cuál candidato votará.Ramsay de Give para The New York TimesIvan Chavez, de 25 años y originario de Bernalillo, Nuevo México, externó que se identifica como independiente en parte porque ninguno de los partidos ha presentado argumentos convincentes para las personas de su edad. Le preocupan los asesinatos masivos, la crisis de salud mental que viven los jóvenes y el cambio climático.Le gustaría que los candidatos del tercer partido recibieran más atención. Planea votar en noviembre, pero no sabe con certeza a quién apoyará.“Creo que los demócratas tienen miedo de los republicanos en este momento, y los republicanos les tienen miedo a los demócratas”, aseveró. “No saben para dónde ir”.Los votantes republicanos jóvenes son los menos propensos a decir que quieren que Trump sea el candidato del partido en 2024, pero Kyle Holcomb, de 23 años y recién graduado de la universidad de Florida, dijo que votaría por él si fuera necesario.“Literalmente, si alguien más que no sea Biden se postulara, me sentiría más cómodo”, dijo. “Simplemente me gusta la idea de tener a alguien en el poder que pueda proyectar su visión y metas de manera efectiva”.Kyle Holcomb se ha enfadado con Donald Trump pero votará por él si se postula.Zack Wittman para The New York TimesLos jóvenes demócratas dijeron que buscaban lo mismo de sus líderes: visión, dinamismo y tal vez un poco de juventud, pero no demasiado. Varios votantes jóvenes mencionaron a la representante Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, una demócrata de Nueva York de 32 años. Chadwick elogió su juventud y disposición para hablar, a menudo en contra de sus colegas mayores en el Congreso, y resumió su atractivo en una palabra: “proximidad”.Michael C. Bender More

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      2022 Midterms Poll: Roundup of Key Insights

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      A summary of the findings includes deep dissatisfaction among voters and potential fertile ground for new candidates in 2024.Which side has the most energy heading into November? More polls will come as the midterm elections near, but for now we’ve wrapped up our first New York Times/Siena survey, and here are some notable takeaways:Voters are not happy. Just 13 percent of registered voters said America was heading in the right direction. Only 10 percent said the economy was excellent or good. And a majority of voters said the nation was too politically divided to solve its challenges. As a point of comparison, each of these figures shows a more pessimistic electorate than in October 2020, when the pandemic was still raging and Donald J. Trump was president.Joe Biden is in trouble. His approval rating in our poll was in the low 30s. That’s lower than we ever found for Mr. Trump.Democrats would rather see someone else get the party’s nomination in 2024. Mr. Biden’s age was as much of an issue among voters as his overall job performance. Of course, he probably would have trailed “someone else” ahead of the last presidential primary as well, but he still won the nomination because his opposition was weak or fractured. Still, it’s a sign that Mr. Biden is much weaker than the typical president seeking re-election. It could augur a contested primary.Democrats’ Reasons for a Different CandidateWhat’s the most important reason you would prefer someone other than Joe Biden to be the Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nominee?

      Asked of 191 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Democratic primary and who preferred a candidate other than Joe Biden in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022.By The New York TimesTrump isn’t doing great, either. Like Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump has become less popular over the last two years. The number of Republicans who hold an unfavorable view of him has doubled since our final polling in 2020. He’s now under 50 percent in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary matchup.Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is already at 25 percent in an early test of the Republican primary. Mr. Trump may still be the front-runner, but the polls increasingly look more like the early surveys from the Democratic primary in 2008 — when Hillary Clinton found herself in an extremely close race and ultimately lost to Barack Obama — than the polls ahead of the Democratic primary in 2016, when she won a protracted battle against Bernie Sanders.Many voters do not want to see a 2020 rematch. Mr. Biden still led Mr. Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, 44 percent to 41 percent. What was surprising: Ten percent of respondents volunteered that they would not vote at all or would vote for someone else if those were the two candidates, even though the interviewer didn’t offer those choices as an option.The midterm race starts out close, with voters nearly evenly divided on the generic congressional ballot (voters are asked whether they prefer Democrats or Republicans to be in control of Congress). That’s a little surprising, given expectations of a Republican landslide this year. More