Sir Keir Starmer is facing a critical test of his 15-month leadership of Labour as voters begin heading to the polls in a critical West Yorkshire by-election for the party.
Labour is defending a majority of more than 3,000 in Batley and Spen — a seat held by the party since 1997 — but the bookies have the Conservatives as odds on favourites for another rare by-election for an incumbent government.
It comes after the party descended into bitter in-fighting last month following a spate of local election disappointments and defeat in the Hartlepool by-election, which switched to the Conservatives for the first time since the seat was created in 1974.
The by-election today was first seen a straight fight between Labour’s Kim Leadbeater — the sister of Jo Cox, who was murdered in the constituency in 2016 — and the Tories’ Ryan Stephenson, but the arrival of George Galloway in the seat has provided an extra headache for Labour’s campaign managers.
Amid calls from left-wing figures for Sir Keir to step down as Labour leader should the party lose the by-election to the Conservatives on Thursday, Sir Keir’s official spokesperson was defiant on the eve of voting, insisting he was “not going to resign”.
“Keir has been absolutely clear that this is a four year path to get back into power and he is determined and to lead the party into the next general election and take us back into government,” they added.
However, his position could be destabilised if another MP attracts the support of 40 colleagues — 20 per cent of the parliamentary party — to launch a leadership challenge against Sir Keir, who succeeded Jeremy Corbyn in April 2020.
Sir Keir Starmer with Angela Rayner during a visit to Birmingham
Supporters of Angela Rayner, the deputy leader who had a dramatic fallout with Sir Keir last month, have been canvassing support of her to challenge if the election is lost, according to reports in The Times.
“There’s definitely been people sounding out the possibility — it’s clear she’d easily reach 40 nominations — and urging her to run if the worst happens in Batley,” an ally told the newspaper.
Responding to the report on social media last night, Ms Rayner said: “The ‘story’ on the front page of The Times tomorrow is news to me.”
But senior left figure Diane Abbott told The Independent earlier this week that the Labour leader could remain “safe” even if the election is lost, due to a lack of “unity” around a replacement candidate.
Ms Abbott, who has previously suggested it would be “curtains” for Sir Keir if the party suffers a defeat in Batley and Spen by-election, said conversations had taken place about the leadership, but that the Greater Manchester mayor, who is unable to stand due to not being an MP, had emerged as the “strongest name”.
She added: “The obvious names have come up, Angela Rayner, obviously, but you wouldn’t necessarily get unity around Angela Rayner at this point. That’s why I think even if we lose Batley and Spen, Starmer can carry on.”
