Boris Johnson has delayed the introduction of new Covid restrictions in England, despite warnings from scientific advisers of a coming wave of infection threatening to overwhelm the NHS.
Scientists warned that “dither” in imposing curbs on social gatherings and travel ahead of the Christmas weekend will allow the highly contagious Omicron variant to spread more fiercely, with one member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), Professor Andrew Hayward, warning of “tens of millions” of infections this winter.
And Labour said the prime minister was “too weak to stand up to his own backbenchers” following the rebellion of 99 Tory MPs against limited plan B restrictions last week, making him “unfit to lead” during the coronavirus crisis.
Meanwhile, businesses hit by a flood of cancellations and stay-at-home shoppers appealed for more financial help to avoid collapse, with nightlife representatives warning that one in three nightclubs, bars and pubs could close within a month.
Expectations of new restrictions in England were raised after Mr Johnson called an emergency meeting of cabinet following Sage advice that more stringent measures were needed “very soon” to prevent hospitalisations reaching thousands per day and that delaying until the new year would “greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions”.
But after a marathon cabinet lasting almost three hours, the prime minister emerged to announce there would be no immediate tightening of current plan B restrictions, explaining that ministers faced a “very finely balanced” choice between protecting public health and avoiding unnecessary disruption and economic damage.
It is understood that ministers were split between those – thought to include health secretary Sajid Javid and levelling up secretary Michael Gove – wanting swift action and others, led by chancellor Rishi Sunak, who argued that decisions which would inflict economic damage running into many billions of pounds should not be taken until the severity of illness caused by Omicron became clearer.
Instead, Mr Johnson promised that data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths would be monitored on an hour-by-hour basis, and that he would not hesitate to order new restrictions if the figures showed they were necessary. He urged the public to show “caution” with measures such as ventilation and hand-washing and to get their Covid vaccinations and boosters as soon as possible. A total of 5.37 million jabs were administered in the UK last week – 65 per cent up on the previous week.
The PM said there were “risks and uncertainties” surrounding the rate at which people infected with Omicron are likely to end up in hospital, the severity of any illness caused and the effectiveness of the booster vaccine in fighting off the variant.
“Unfortunately, I must say to people we will have to reserve the possibility of taking further action to protect the public and to protect public health and to protect our NHS, and we won’t hesitate to take that action,” he said.
Pressure on NHS hospitals was underlined in two letters seen by The Independent, with University Hospitals Birmingham Foundation Trust warning booked leave may have to be cancelled because of the pressure from Omicron, while Barts in London told doctors it may have to cancel “some or much” of its planned operations in January.
Latest figures showed 91,743 positive Covid tests recorded on Monday, bringing the total over the past seven days to 221,000 – a shocking 61 per cent higher than the previous week. The true level of infections is believed to be far higher, because of the time-lag between being exposed to the virus, experiencing symptoms and being tested.
MPs at Westminster said they expected to be recalled next Tuesday or Wednesday to approve curbs ahead of New Year’s Eve, though some did not rule out an emergency sitting before Christmas.
One backbencher told The Independent: “I think [Johnson]’s going for a compromise in cabinet which is do nothing before Christmas and then bring in restrictions after Christmas. The recall would probably for Tuesday and Wednesday next week – that’s my best guess. There will be a lot of frustration about it, unless they tell us what’s going on and share some of the data and show things are worse than expected.”
There is no constitutional requirement for notice before a recall, but it would be practically difficult for Mr Johnson to give the Commons speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle less than 24 hours to call MPs back to the Commons for the vote which the PM has promised on any new regulations.
The shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said it was clear that Mr Johnson is “too weak to stand up to his own backbenchers, many of whom have no plan beyond ‘let the virus rip’.”
“Today, while businesses across the country wonder if they can continue to trade, and families make frantic calls about whether they will see each other this Christmas, true to form the prime minister has put his party before the public,” said Mr Streeting. “Rather than set out a clear plan for the country, he has chosen to protect himself from his own MPs by simply not saying anything. Boris Johnson is unfit to lead.”
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said the prime minister had left millions of families unable to plan their Christmases.
“Boris Johnson is weak, indecisive and incapable of providing the leadership our country needs,” said Davey. “His credibility has been shot to pieces, he’s no longer trusted by the public or supported by his party. The prime minister must recall parliament now instead of yet again acting too late. Ducking the difficult decisions is not a plan.”
Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon called a meeting of her cabinet for Tuesday to discuss restrictions north of the border, which are already tighter than in England.
Scientists challenged the PM’s suggestion that the scientific argument for further restrictions is “finely balanced”.
“On the contrary, there are strong scientific arguments for people to immediately cease the activities that are known to cause transmission,” said Oxford University primary care professor Trish Greenhalgh. “In particular, large indoor gatherings of unmasked people, especially those involving singing, should not occur.”
University College London professor Christina Pagel called on the government to immediately return to step two of the old Covid roadmap – limiting household mixing, banning indoor drinking at bars and restaurants and capping funerals at 30 people – to prevent “thousands” of infections over the coming days.
Hospitalisations in London – the epicentre of the current wave – have risen by 37 per cent in the past week to 1,349 on 18 December. The 220 Covid patients admitted to a hospital in the capital on Friday marked the highest daily figure since March.
Admissions are also on the rise in the northwest, but are continuing to fall in all other regions of the country, where the impact of Omicron has yet to be felt.
“It is already too late to prevent catastrophic strain on health and social care, as well as on other services,” said Dr Peter English, a former chair of the BMA Public Health Medicine Committee.
UCL epidemiologist Prof Irene Petersen, an epidemiologist at University College London (UCL), said this was the third occasion of the pandemic in which was the government was “dithering” in making a decision, after delays to the initial lockdown in March 2020 and the rise of the Delta variant last autumn.
“What we see now is that Omicron is in charge rather than the British government,” she said. “I fear that it can have dire consequences not only for our health but also for our society.”
But Conservative backbencher Anthony Browne said he was “delighted that the government has decided not to impose any more Covid restrictions, at least before Christmas”, adding: “The data really does not justify it, and it would be so damaging socially and economically.”
The chief executive of UKHospitality, Kate Nicholls, said businesses have been left “in limbo” with no certainty about how they should plan for the vital week covering Christmas and the new year or how they will pay wages and bills at the end of the month.
Support packages available to them were designed for the summer recovery, not the crucial festive break, which has seen them lose 40-60 per cent of December trade this year, she said.
Michael Kill, chief executive of the Night Time Industries Association, said a fifth of nightlife businesses could lose their entire workforce, and one in three fear closure within a month after forfeiting an average £46,000 in lost sales and cancellations during the festive period.
“It really is a chilling prospect to see so many venues in our sector left to bleed,” he said.
