England’s events industry will face considerable financial losses even if minimal Covid restrictions are maintained by Boris Johnson beyond 19 July, according to leak of an internal government economic impact assessment.
In a stark analysis, officials suggested that under the existing restrictions, hospitality and leisure firms were managing just 60 per cent of pre-pandemic turnover from 2019, with an even lower figure of 51 per cent for indoor seated venues.
The document was reportedly produced by the Events Research Programme, which has been conducting pilots of major events with little or no restrictions in controlled environments over several months to explore ways to reopen safely.
Events in the first phase of the pilots included a comedy club and nightclub in Liverpool, the FA Cup final at Wembley stadium, the World Snooker Championship at the Crucible Theatre in Sheffield, and a mass participation run in Hatfield.
According to Politico, the pilots did not find a serious spike in transmission, but economic modelling suggested maintaining any “non-pharmaceutical interventions” would result in businesses closing and a multi-billion pound price tag.
It comes as the prime minister plans to ease all remaining Covid-19 restrictions in England on 19 July – a date he has referred to as the “terminus” point – after delaying the original plan to fully unwind measures on 21 June by four weeks.
However, government plans on a whole host of issues, including whether Covid certification will play any role domestically, remain unclear. Ministers are also expected to publish a review of social distancing guidelines examining the 1 metre plus rule and the use of face coverings ahead of 19 July.
Analysing three scenarios – high, medium, and low intervention models – the economic impact assessment reported by Politico concluded that continuing with even the most lenient measures, including only face masks as a mandatory rule, the industry as a whole would reach 82 per cent of 2019 turnover.
Keeping the “high intervention” model, which included scrapping social distancing but maintaining face masks, Covid certification, and attendance caps, the impact assessment found the events industry overall would reach an average turnover of 69 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.
The figures are more stark in the highest model for indoor seated venues such as theatres and cinemas, with the impact assessment projecting just 59 per cent of turnover compared to 2019 – with an attendant cost of around £4.88 billion.
The government has so far declined to publish the findings of the programme, but speaking on Wednesday, the secretary of state for digital, culture, media and sport, John Whittingdale, told Sky News it would be released ahead of 19 July when restrictions are planned to ease.
Raising the issue in the Commons on Tuesday, the Tory MP Mark Harper, who chairs the lockdown-sceptic Covid Recovery Group, voiced his “fear” that the data on large pilot events had not been published because “it would have demonstrated that we could have safely opened on 21 June”.
Mr Harper said he suspected the numbers are “fantastically positive” after pilot events held at sporting, music and other venues have not caused any Covid-19 outbreaks and he is “a little confused” as to why the numbers have not been released.
The Department for Culture, Media and Sport declined to comment.
