The Conservative Party has a reputation for ruthlessly disposing of its leaders when they have become surplus to requirements and are no longer viewed as electoral assets: i.e they can’t win a parliamentary majority.
Even former prime minister Margaret Thatcher, who is considered one of the party’s greatest-ever leaders, winning three landslide elections in the 70s and 80s, was ousted in 1990 amid concerns over her politically toxic poll tax among other issues.
Conversations about Tory succession – and who might lead the troops into the next battle – are constant within the party and have been taking place long before recent scandals sent Boris Johnson’s approval ratings and poll lead tumbling.
For the early part of the current prime minister’s tenure in No 10 Downing Street, it was perceived wisdom in Westminster that Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, would be next to ascend the Tory throne.
Assured performances by the Richmond and North Yorkshire MP while delivering his first Budget to MPs in the Commons, and the competence he displayed in delivering furlough, eat out to help out and other pandemic schemes, saw Mr Sunak’s popularity surge and the chancellor quickly became the darling of the party’s grassroots.
But while Mr Sunak’s star has since fallen slightly over recent tax hikes, he is still the favourite of some bookies to become the next occupant of No 10. But who else is in the running?
Lizz Truss, who has undergone somewhat of an epiphany over Brexit, has recently seen her approval ratings soar, with a Conservative Home poll published last month ranking her top among cabinet ministers.
The survey is viewed as a good barometer of grassroots support and is keenly watched by those in government.
Ms Truss’s Twitter feed in 2016 was home to disparaging comments about the Leave campaign’s economic arguments in the run-up to the referendum. “Leave cannot name one country we would get a better trade deal with if we left the EU,” one dated 21 June 2016 says.
But a sudden change of heart after the Brexit result, and unwavering support for the PM, saw Ms Truss get promoted to international trade secretary, with one No 10 official saying she “did a brilliant job” in the role and “had been a fantastic representative for the UK around the world.”
The free-market Conservative, who talks tough on “woke” Britain, was subsequently promoted to foreign secretary in the PM’s September reshuffle. The 3 November ConHome poll put Ms Truss’s approval rating at +85.6 – more than 10 points higher than second-placed de-facto Brexit minister, Lord Frost.
Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the current international trade secretary, and Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, also ranked in the top five of the survey but neither has been strongly linked to the Tory leadership role.
Michael Gove, the new levelling up and housing secretary and Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary and current chair of the Commons health committee, are invariably linked with the top job.
But while both are viewed in Tory circles as competent and capable of successfully overseeing a brief, they have had tilts at the leadership and failed.
Mr Gove famously stabbed the PM in the back during the 2016 contest, which was subsequently won by Theresa May.
He announced his own campaign for the leadership while running Mr Johnson’s operation and was banished to the backbenches by Ms May for his very public act of disloyalty.
Speaking in the Commons in October this year and reflecting on the move, Mr Gove described it as “political suicide”.
“But as the former member for Kensington and Chelsea Sir Malcolm Rifkind pointed out, one of the things about committing political suicide is that you always live to regret it,” he said. That betrayal is unlikely to be forgotten in any future contest.
Since losing to Mr Johnson in the 2019 contest Mr Hunt has played a smart game, being loyal through the pandemic while also offering constructive criticism. He repeatedly plays down speculation that he could once again throw his hat into the ring but you wouldn’t rule out another run.
What do the punters think?
“Following the calamitous week that Boris Johnson has had, we have seen plenty of action on the Betfair Exchange’s next prime minister market,” Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom tells The Independent.
“Rishi Sunak is the 11/4 favourite take over at Number 10 after Johnson, while Liz Truss has been the biggest mover in the market. The foreign secretary has been backed in from 33/1 earlier in the year to 11/2 now.”
Betfair says, over the past few days, the odds on Mr Johnson leaving his job by the end of 2021 have shortened from 149/1 to as low as 15/1. Mr Johnson leaving no 10 in 2022 is proving to be a popular choice too, the firm said, with the odds being slashed from 21/1 to 7/5 in the past seven days.
Next Conservative leader after Boris Johnson
Rishi Sunak 13/5
Liz Truss 5/1
Michael Gove 15/2
Jeremy Hunt 11/1
Sajid Javid 19/1
Tom Tugendhat 22/1
Ben Wallace 23/1
Boris Johnson exit date
2021 – 17/1 (was 149/1)
2022 7/5
2023 7/2
2024 8/5
