A crucial by-election in an ultra-safe Conservative constituency is on a “knife edge”, according to the Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey, who claimed traditional Tory voters feel they have been “taken for granted”.
Just three days before voters head to the polls in North Shropshire, Sir Ed appeared optimistic about his party’s prospects – despite coming third with just 10 per cent of the vote share in 2019 – and said there was a “really good chance of winning” if Labour and Green supporters voted tactically.
After the Liberal Democrats’ previous surprise victory against the Conservatives in the Chesham and Amersham by-election earlier this year, he told The Independent: “We’ve had some good by-election victories over the years – this would be off the scale.”
The by-election was triggered last month after Owen Paterson, who was found to have flouted rules on lobbying, resigned as an MP when Boris Johnson performed a U-turn on widely condemned proposals to create a Tory-dominated committee to review Commons sleaze rules.
Given the Conservatives have held the seat for almost 200 years and commanded a 23,000-strong majority at the 2019 general election, a defeat on Thursday would represent a stunning blow for the prime minister and inevitably raise further questions over his leadership.
But after bookies positioned the Lib Dems as favourites to win the by-election, Sir Ed, a former cabinet minister during the coalition government, said: “I think that’s probably slightly over-egging it. I think we really are in a good place – there’s no doubt it could go either way, it’s either going to be a Conservative MP or a going to be a Liberal Democrat MP. We’ve got a good chance; it’s on a knife-edge.”
Sir Ed, who has visited the constituency five times during the campaign, claimed his party’s prospects “got progressively better”, saying: “Two things have happened: clearly we’ve been able to attract that disaffected Tory vote – and then we’ve seen increasingly Labour supporters willing to vote for us.”
“There’s a real sense that we could be, potentially, overtaking the Tories. We’re not there yet.”
He said 500 of party activists were canvassing over the weekend in North Shropshire, with thousands of voters contacted on the doorstep, and claimed: “Boris Johnson is not liked. This is what would have been a true blue seat and it’s Conservative party loyalists – lifelong Tories – they don’t like Boris Johnson.
“This sense that they’ve been taken for granted, that they’ve been left behind, that Boris Johnson doesn’t care, it’s a really big one… and I think on a dark December evening that will motivate our people to come out, and I think it’s going to motivate Conservative voters to back us.
“If enough [Labour and Green] vote tactically, we’ve got a really good chance of winning. If Labour and Green voters stick with their own party, then I think the Conservatives might just sneak back in.”
He said: “If the prime minister loses this election, it will be one of the most shocking defeats ever, for any prime minister. This should be a rock-solid, safe Conservative constituency. They’ve had Conservative MPs for 200 years.”
Labour frontbencher Yasmin Qureshi told Times Radio that the party were “never going to win” North Shropshire but stressed the Liberal Democrats had an “opportunity to do so”.
“It’s not just soft-pedalling – I do think that in constituencies like these ones, where Labour don’t have a huge amount of resources… we know, realistically, we have no chance of winning,” she said.
A Conservative Party spokesperson said Neil Shastri-Hurst was “the only candidate with a plan to deliver for the people of North Shropshire.
“Neil will work positively with the government to get things done and isn’t focused on the short-term aim of using this by-election for yet more party politics,” they added.
“Voters are experiencing a strong campaign from five parties – as well as ourselves, you have Labour working to defend their second place, the Greens keen to build on their breakthrough in the local elections especially in Oswestry, the Reform Party in the mix and the Liberal Democrats trying to catch up and overtake Labour.”
