The “pandemic is over” if new Covid-19 variants are not sending more people to hospital, a vaccines expert says – but he urged the government to wait “a few more weeks” to know for certain.
Professor Andrew Pollard, from the University of Oxford, said the weekend data – suggesting strong protection against the Indian variant after two jabs – was the “wrong exam question”.
Ministers have seized on the Public Health England figures to say the prospects for lifting all remaining Covid restrictions on 21 June are “looking good”.
But Prof Pollard said what mattered is whether infections have been “uncoupled” from hospitalisations and deaths, not the transmitting of mild symptoms, expressing hope that the data will show that.
“The thing that makes this a pandemic is people going into hospital,” the head of the Oxford Vaccine Group said.
“If the current generation of vaccines are able to stop people going into hospital – while there is still mild infections, people are getting the common cold with the virus – then the pandemic is over.
“Because we can live with the virus – in fact we are going to have to live with the virus one way or another.
“But it doesn’t matter if most people are kept out of hospital, because then the NHS can continue to function and life will be back to normal.”
It would take “a few more weeks” for the data to emerge, Prof Pollard told BBC Radio 4, adding: “We just need a little more time to have certainty around this.”
The comments come after Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said he is “increasingly confident” that the roadmap is on track to reach the fourth and final step next month.
All social distancing measures could be scrapped, along with limits on people inside homes and hospitality and entertainment venues.
The move was thrown into doubt by the surge in cases of the B1617.2 strain, originating in India, which is thought to be more infectious than the Kent strain and will become dominant.
On Saturday, the PHE study revealed both Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines are only marginally less effective against the Indian variant, but only after two doses.
Ministers have been criticised for downplaying only 33 per cent effectiveness after a single dose – a steep drop on the 50 per cent against the Kent variant.
Some experts are warning that the government is ignoring the real truth behind the figures – and risking a third wave of Covid, later this year.
Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London, tweeted: “Sage has clearly warned that a variant that is highly transmissible and has a level of escape could possibly lead to levels of hospitalisations that exceed the [January] peak, even with vaccine roll-out continuing.”
