Nicola Sturgeon has said it is premature to relax restrictions in Glasgow due a “fragile” situation and “uncomfortably high” Covid case rates.
The Scottish first minister suggested the R rate of transmission could also be around 1.3 in the country, with Friday’s daily case number the highest since 25 March.
Glasgow is the only part of Scotland remaining under the country’s Level 3 lockdown rules, prohibiting non-essential travel out of the area and imposing greater restrictions on socialising, hospitality and businesses.
However, Ms Sturgeon suggested the situation was “stabilising” in the city, suggesting a decision could be made at the end of next week to move the city down to Level 2 restrictions.
Under Level 2 measures, people are allowed to meet socially in groups of up to six people from three households indoors — including overnight stays — and also meet inside restaurants, cafés and pubs.
Travelling outside the area — something not permitted under Level 3 restrictions unless for a permitted reason — is also allowed.
Giving a “frank and balanced” assessment of the national picture, Ms Sturgeon said there was both “cause for concern” and “cause for optimism” in the fight against the disease.
She said case numbers were rising, with cases numbers increasing by more than a quarter in the past week. With 631 cases reported on Friday, she added it was the “largest daily number we have seen since the 25 March”.
She added: “The latest estimate of R number is that it could now be as high as 1.3. Again I need to put that in context because it is probably quite significantly driven by the situation in Glasgow, given how big the city is as a proportion of Scotland’s overall population”.
Ms Sturgeon went on: “A key factor behind the increases… is that the new April-02 variant, which we think is more transmissible than most other types of the virus, probably now accounts for 50% or even more of our daily cases.”
“The increase in cases so far does seem to be concentrated in younger age groups and this may indicate that vaccination is having a protective effect for older people which of course we want to see.”
Addressing the situation specifically in Glasgow, the Scottish first minister said: “There are some early signs that the situation is stabilising in Glasgow
But she added: “Weighing up all of these different factors is inevitably really difficult – case numbers in Glasgow — I can’t say anything other than this — they are uncomfortably high, but we are seeing signs of progress.
“The view of the national incident management team is two-fold. Firstly, that it would be premature to move Glasgow out of Level 3 immediately this week while the situation remains so fragile.
“However, and secondly, if incidence continues to stabilise and assuming levels of hospitalisation remain reasonably stable, the incident management team has made clear to me that they would support a move to Level 2 from the end of next week.”
