Francine Could Be Fueled by Gulf of Mexico’s Warm Waters

On Monday afternoon, Francine spun above water, its temperature nearly ideal for a bathtub, primed to fuel, strengthen and sustain a hurricane.

With the storm becoming better solidified, a stronger hurricane than forecast, even a major hurricane — Category 3 or higher — is not out of the question.

That is to say that if conditions are close to perfect, a surprise rapid intensification is possible, said Brian McNoldy, an expert in hurricane formation and ocean temperatures at the University of Miami. He cautions that there are meteorological factors, like structure, land interaction and wind shear, that may work against its intensification.

As of Monday evening, Francine was a tropical storm in the western Gulf of Mexico and was expected to make landfall sometime Wednesday in Louisiana.

There is a short window between Monday afternoon and Tuesday night when rapid intensification of wind speeds by 35 miles per hour or more in 24 hours could occur. Even some of the forecast computer models have some outliers that show the intensity of Francine reaching Category 3 or 4. Dr. McNoldy said he “wouldn’t blindly dismiss high-end outliers in the Gulf of Mexico in the second week of September.”

The storm still needs time to consolidate and become symmetrical before it can intensify. And because it is only a little over 100 miles from land, the friction from the ground surface can also limit growth. If it can overcome those hurdles, Dr. McNoldy said, the ocean below it (meteorologically, the Gulf is the same as the ocean) is a huge fuel source to keep those thunderstorms going strong.