No Supreme Court term in recent memory has featured so many cases with the potential to transform American society.
The consequential cases, with decisions arriving by late June or early July, include three affecting former President Donald J. Trump, two on abortion, two on guns, three on the First Amendment rights of social media companies and three on the administrative state.
In recent years, some of the court’s biggest decisions have been out of step with public opinion. Researchers at Harvard, Stanford and the University of Texas conducted a survey in March to help explore whether that gap persists.
Trump’s Ballot Eligibility
9-0 ruling on March 4
Liberal bloc
Sotomayor
Jackson
Kagan
Conservative bloc
Roberts
Kavanaugh
Barrett
Gorsuch
Alito
Thomas
Is there a major precedent involved?
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
What was at stake?
A decision that Mr. Trump was ineligible to hold office would have been a political earthquake altering the course of American history.
Where does the public stand?
Think Trump is eligible to run in 2024 | Think Trump is not eligible |
53%47%
Immunity for Former Presidents
Trump v. United States
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
But in 1982, in Nixon v. Fitzgerald, a closely divided court ruled that Nixon, by then out of office, was absolutely immune from civil lawsuits “for acts within the ‘outer perimeter’ of his official responsibility.”
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
What is at stake?
The court’s decision will determine whether and when Mr. Trump will face trial for his attempts to overturn his 2020 loss at the polls.
Where does the public stand?
Think former presidents are not immune from criminal prosecution for actions they took while president | Think former presidents are immune |
74%27%
Obstruction Charges for Jan. 6 Assault
Fischer v. United States
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
In a series of decisions, the court has narrowed the reach of federal criminal laws aimed at public corruption and white-collar crime.
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
What is at stake?
The case has the potential to knock out half of the federal charges against former President Donald J. Trump for plotting to subvert the 2020 election and could complicate hundreds of Jan. 6 prosecutions.
Where does the public stand?
Think the events at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, were criminal | Think the events were not criminal |
71%29%
Abortion Pills
Food and Drug Administration v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
What is at stake?
The case will determine whether access to the drug, which is used in the majority of abortions in the United States, will be sharply curtailed.
Where does the public stand?
Think the F.D.A.’s approval of mifepristone should not be revoked | Think the approval should be revoked |
68%33%
Emergency Abortion Care
Moyle v. United States
Not yet decided
The Supreme Court will decide whether a federal law that requires emergency rooms to provide stabilizing care to all patients overrides a state law, in Idaho, that imposes a near-total ban on abortion.
Is there a major precedent involved?
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
What is at stake?
It is the first time the Supreme Court is considering a state law criminalizing abortion since it overturned Roe v. Wade. The decision may affect more than a dozen states that have passed near-total bans on abortion.
Where does the public stand?
Think Idaho hospitals must provide abortions in medical emergencies | Think they are not allowed |
82%18%
Second Amendment Rights of Domestic Abusers
United States v. Rahimi
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
Lower courts have struck down federal laws prohibiting people who have been convicted of felonies or who use drugs from owning guns.
What is at stake?
The court may start to clear up the confusion it created in the Bruen decision, in the first major test of its expansion of gun rights. The standard it announced has left lower courts in turmoil as they struggle to hunt down references to obscure or since-forgotten regulations.
Where does the public stand?
Think barring domestic abusers from possessing firearms does not violate their Second Amendment rights | Think it violates their rights |
74%26%
Restrictions on the Homeless
City of Grants Pass v. Johnson
Not yet decided
The Supreme Court will decide whether ordinances in Oregon aimed at preventing homeless people from sleeping and camping outside violate the Eighth Amendment’s prohibition on cruel and unusual punishment.
Is there a major precedent involved?
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
What is at stake?
The case could have major ramifications on how far cities across the country can go to clear homeless people from streets and other public spaces.
Where does the public stand?
Think banning homeless people from camping outside even when local shelters are full violates the Constitution | Think it does not violate the Constitution |
58%42%
Social Media Platforms’ First Amendment Rights
Moody v. NetChoice; NetChoice v. Paxton
Not yet decided
The laws’ supporters argue that the measures are needed to combat perceived censorship of conservative views on issues like the coronavirus pandemic and claims of election fraud. Critics of the laws say the First Amendment prevents the government from telling private companies whether and how to disseminate speech.
Is there a major precedent involved?
In 1980, in Pruneyard Shopping Center v. Robins, the court said a state constitutional provision that required private shopping centers to allow expressive activities on their property did not violate the centers’ First Amendment rights.
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
What is at stake?
The cases arrive garbed in politics, as they concern laws aimed at protecting conservative speech. But the larger question the cases present transcends ideology. It is whether tech platforms have free speech rights to make editorial judgments.
Where does the public stand?
Think states cannot prevent social media companies from censoring speech | Think states should be able to prevent censoring |
60%41%
Disinformation on Social Media
Murthy v. Missouri
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
The Supreme Court is also considering a case that raises similar issues, National Rifle Association v. Vullo, about whether a state official in New York violated the First Amendment by encouraging companies to stop doing business with the National Rifle Association.
What is at stake?
The case is a major test of the role of the First Amendment in the internet era, requiring the court to consider when government efforts to limit the spread of misinformation amount to censorship of constitutionally protected speech.
Where does the public stand?
Think federal officials urging private companies to block or remove users violates the First Amendment | Think it does not violate the First Amendment |
62%38%
N.R.A. and the First Amendment
National Rifle Association of America v. Vullo
Not yet decided
The Supreme Court will decide whether a New York State official violated the First Amendment by trying to persuade companies not to do business with the National Rifle Association after the school shooting in Parkland, Fla.
Is there a major precedent involved?
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
The case is one of two that will determine when government advocacy edges into violating free speech rights. The other, Murthy v. Missouri, concerns the Biden administration’s dealings with social media companies.
What is at stake?
The case centers on when persuasion by government officials crosses into coercion.
Where does the public stand?
Think the state regulator’s behavior violates the N.R.A.’s First Amendment rights | Think it does not violate the N.R.A.’s rights |
53%47%
Opioids Settlement
Harrington v. Purdue Pharma
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
The case is the first time the Supreme Court will address whether a bankruptcy plan can be structured to give civil legal immunity to a third party, without the consent of all potential claimholders. The legal maneuver under scrutiny has become increasingly popular in bankruptcy settlements.
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
What is at stake?
Approving the deal would funnel money toward states and others who have waited for years for some kind of settlement. Yet the Sacklers would be largely absolved from future opioid-related claims. More broadly, the case may have implications for similar agreements insulating a third party from liability.
Where does the public stand?
Think the Sackler family should not keep immunity from future lawsuits | Think family should keep immunity |
74%27%
Racial Gerrymandering
Alexander v. South Carolina State Conference of the N.A.A.C.P.
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
Yes. A series of Supreme Court decisions say that making race the predominant factor in drawing voting districts violates the Constitution.
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
The Alabama case was governed by the Voting Rights Act, the landmark civil rights statute, and the one from South Carolina by the Constitution’s equal protection clause.
What is at stake?
The case concerns a constitutional puzzle: how to distinguish the roles of race and partisanship in drawing voting maps when Black voters overwhelmingly favor Democrats. The difference matters because the Supreme Court has said that only racial gerrymandering may be challenged in federal court under the Constitution.
Where does the public stand?
Think these changes to the districts are unconstitutional | Think they are constitutional |
67%33%
Power of Federal Agencies
Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo; Relentless v. Department of Commerce
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
Yes. Chevron is one of the most cited cases in American law.
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
“The question is less whether this court should overrule Chevron,” Paul D. Clement, one of the lawyers for the challengers, told the justices, “and more whether it should let lower courts and citizens in on the news.”
What is at stake?
Overturning the decision could threaten regulations on the environment, health care, consumer safety, nuclear energy, government benefit programs and guns. It would also shift power from agencies to Congress and to judges.
Where does the public stand?
Courts should defer to administrative agencies when laws are unclear | Courts should not defer to agencies |
51%49%
Agency Funding
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau v. Community Financial Services Association of America
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
There is no precedent squarely on point.
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
What is at stake?
A ruling against the bureau, created as part of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act after the financial crisis, could cast doubt on every regulation and enforcement action it took in the dozen years of its existence. That includes agency rules — and punishments against companies that flout them — involving mortgages, credit cards, consumer loans and banking.
Where does the public stand?
Think this agency funding structure is unconstitutional | Think it is constitutional |
55%45%
Administrative Courts
Securities and Exchange Commission v. Jarkesy
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
What is at stake?
A ruling against the S.E.C. would not only require it to file cases in federal court but could also imperil administrative tribunals at many other agencies, including the Federal Trade Commission, the Internal Revenue Service, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Social Security Administration and the National Labor Relations Board.
Where does the public stand?
Think federal agencies bringing actions in administrative proceedings rather than in federal courts is not constitutional | Think it is constitutional |
68%32%
Cross-State Air Pollution
Ohio v. Environmental Protection Agency
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
What is at stake?
Prevailing winds carry emissions of nitrogen oxide toward Eastern states with fewer industrial sites. The pollutant causes smog and is linked to asthma, lung disease and premature death.
Bump Stocks for Guns
Garland v. Cargill
Not yet decided
Is there a major precedent involved?
Are there recent rulings on the subject?
The case involves how to interpret a federal law that banned machine guns, the National Firearms Act of 1934. The definition was broadened by the Gun Control Act of 1968 to include parts that can be used to convert a weapon into a machine gun. At issue is whether bump stocks fall within those definitions. Federal appeals courts have split on the issue.
What is at stake?
A decision could do away with one of the few efforts at gun control that gained political traction after the Las Vegas massacre in 2017. More broadly, a ruling could help clarify the scope of the power of federal agencies.
Source: Elections - nytimes.com