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Rachel Reeves will announce Labour’s first Budget in 15 years later this month, leading one of the most highly-anticipated fiscal events in over a decade.
As the chancellor looks to fill the £22bn “black hole” in public spending she announced in late July, speculation has mounted about what measures will be included on 30 October.
During the Labour’s first few months in power, ministers have warned that “tough decisions” will be required to balance the books. Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer has said the event is going to be “painful” but that there is “no other choice given the situation that we’re in”.
This likely means tax rises and spending cuts can be expected. The government has already come under fire for its decision to cut back winter fuel payments for millions of pensions, sparking a row which has hung over its first 100 days in power.
In their manifesto, Labour pledged not to increase “taxes on working people,” ruling out changes to national insurance contributions (NICs), income tax or VAT. This has given them “little room for manoeuvre” says Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson, as the top three sources of Treasury revenue are sealed off.
However, experts are now criticising Ms Reeves after she and the prime minister refused to rule out an increase in employer NICs, which could raise £17bn a year.
Officials have indicated that they do not believe the measure would represent a tax rise for working people. However, Mr Johnson has said the hike would be a “straightforward breach” of Labour’s manifesto.
We’ll be bringing you all the latest updates ahead of the big event on 30 October here, on The Independent’s liveblog.
Budget 2024: Latest news as proposed national insurance hike sparks row
Hello and welcome to The Independent’s Budget 2024 live coverage where we’ll be bringing you the latest updates ahead of Labour’s fiscal event on 30 October.
Labour has been criticised in recent days for refusing to rule out an increase to employer national insurance contributions (NICs). Some experts say the measure would break their pledge to not raise taxes on working people – but officials have indicated that the government does not agree.
Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson said the measure would be a “straightforward breach” of the Labour manifesto, but added that Ms Reeves will “almost certainly” need to break a manifesto commitment to meet her spending targets.
He says that a 1p hike in employer NICs would “probably not” be very damaging to jobs and could raise up to £17bn a year.
Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott said: “In 2021, the chancellor said increasing employer national insurance was a tax on ‘workers’. That’s why even in her own words it breaks Labour’s manifesto promise not to increase tax on working people.”
However, it has been pointed out that Ms Trott and her party had criticised Labour for not ruling out the measure in the run-up to the general election, implying they did not believe the manifesto had done so.
