Sir Keir Starmer has been issued a stark warning over the direction of the government, with pollsters speculating that he could struggle to turn things around following a devastating defeat in Labour’s heartland.
Plaid Cymru snatched the traditionally Labour seat of Caerphilly away from Sir Keir’s party overnight on Thursday. It was the first time that Labour, which came third behind Reform UK, had lost an election in the former mining town in more than a century.
Sir Keir said he was “deeply disappointed” by the result, adding: “We clearly need to do much more.”
But with many seeing this week’s by-election as a bellwether for the local elections next May as well as national elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, Ipsos pollster Keiran Pedley told The Independent that it is “hard to see how Labour will turn things around”, while Professor Sir John Curtice said the result shows that the party is “in severe trouble in Wales”.
The Andy Burnham-allied pressure group Mainstream warned that Labour “will be wiped out in Wales next May without a major reset”, advising Sir Keir to “reject the hyper-factional culture [that is] determined to concentrate power at the top of the party”.
But one Labour MP said there is “absolutely nothing Starmer can do to turn the political tide”, urging the prime minister to “consider his position now, not later, before the Labour Party sinks into the abyss”.
It comes amid growing concern over the direction of Sir Keir’s government, with many seeing next May’s local and national elections as a crucial test of how Labour is performing in power, and as a deadline for the prime minister to start delivering on the government’s priorities.
In this year’s local elections, Reform UK swept to victory across more than half a dozen English councils, winning hundreds of seats – a result it is hoping to replicate in 2026.
Labour has run the Welsh parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999, and Caerphilly has been one of its strongholds. But opposition parties hoping to form the next Welsh government have run fierce campaigns in the south Wales constituency, with many seeing this week’s by-election as a sign of what is to come at the parliamentary election next May.
Lindsay Whittle, a longstanding councillor for the Penyrheol ward and leader of the Plaid Cymru group on Caerphilly Council, won the seat with 47.38 per cent of the vote – a swing of almost 27 per cent from Labour.
In second place was Reform UK’s Llyr Powell, on 35.9 per cent, while Welsh Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe came third with just 11 per cent.
The result will embolden Plaid in its efforts to enter government in Wales next year, and is a bitter blow for Labour, which had held the seat since the Welsh parliament was first established.
It will also be seen as a disappointment for Reform UK, which was polling in front and had hoped to win its first seat at the ballot box, with Nigel Farage pledging to “throw everything” at the campaign.
While Reform’s vote share increased significantly after it won just 495 votes four years ago, it is thought that tactical voting dampened the party’s success in the constituency on Friday. However, the final result put Reform well ahead of Labour.
It also marks the first time in history that a by-election for a seat in the Welsh parliament has exceeded 50 per cent turnout.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the result shows that the people of Caerphilly have chosen “hope over division, and progress over the tired status quo”.
Mainstream said: “So long as UK Labour governs without a clear vision, detached from its moral purpose and democratic socialist foundations, losses like this will only become more frequent.”
The group said that the only way to resist the shift towards opposition parties like Plaid and Reform is to offer “a popular, principled and practical left politics that can transform the country by raising living standards, redistributing power and wealth, and securing a stake for everyone in a national community that guarantees the essentials of a good life for all”.
Warning that “time is short”, the group urged Labour to “reject the hyper-factional culture [that is] determined to concentrate power at the top of the party”, adding: “The result is clear – Labour will be wiped out in Wales next May without a major reset.”
Prof Curtice said: “Labour’s share of the vote was just 11 per cent. It fell by 35 points. That’s the biggest drop that Labour have ever suffered in a by-election in Wales. Labour are in severe trouble in Wales.”
He added: “It does suggest that Plaid are now well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister. Reform will be disappointed at coming second, with 36 per cent, but I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.”
And Mr Pedley told The Independent: “Yesterday’s collapse in support for Labour is ominous ahead of next years Senedd [Welsh parliament] elections. It is hard to see how they will turn things around in such an anti-politics environment when they are in power in Westminster and Wales (where they have been for some time).
“One crumb of comfort for Labour is that there does appear to be widespread anti-Reform tactical voting. This may help Labour somewhat in future elections elsewhere in the UK – even if it may not help them much in Wales next year.”
Mr Whittle received 15,961 votes, up almost 19 per cent from the 2021 result in the constituency, and representing a swing from Labour of almost 27 per cent.
Mr Powell got 12,113 votes, while Labour’s Mr Tunnicliffe trailed on 3,713, down from 13,289 in 2021, when there was a lower turnout.
