For much of this Tory conference in Manchester, the world’s oldest and once most successful democratic party looked like it was teetering on the edge of oblivion.
Key shadow ministers were delivering their speeches to empty seats, people slept in the main hall, corporates had deserted in terms of stalls, and there were vast open spaces in a sparsely attended Manchester Central conference centre; the buzz of previous years replaced by an echoing despondency.
The only queues were for the fringe events for the man who many believe will replace Tory leader Kemi Badenoch in the coming months – shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick.
He seemed to be the man of the moment, the preferred speaker for anyone who wanted to hold an event, a genuine crowd puller.
And while his backers had ensured that he did not try to do an Andy Burnham and make the conference about a leadership challenge, the discussion about Ms Badenoch’s future dominated the chat among members and MPs alike for the full four days.
While those who fled Manchester before Ms Badenoch’s speech will have left thinking her days as leader are numbered, the ones who stayed for her keynote speech on Wednesday morning – which saw a flurry of attention-grabbing, vote-winning pledges – will have seen a rejuvenated Ms Badenoch breathing new life into this tired party.
To keep Kemi – or not to keep Kemi?
The main debate through the conference appeared to not be centred on the beleaguered leader’s qualities. Even those who did not want a change of leader seemed resigned to the fact she appeared to be mediocre at best.
Indeed, The Independent was at several private gatherings where the debate was between whether voters would forgive the party to change leader again in such a short space of time, or whether the Conservatives simply need someone who is up to the job – no matter how it may look.
It was not exactly the greatest vote of confidence in a woman elected to lead the party less than a year ago – but such is the short level of patience in modern politics.
One supportive MP who did not want a change of leader said: “Well she was always going to be a work in progress, we need to give her time.”
But another said: “We do not have time.”
A party on life support
The issue was whether the party was facing an “extinguish event”, or was already dead.
The More in Common poll putting Reform on 33 per cent, Labour 20 per cent and the Tories on 19 per cent was less than encouraging to say the least, and that was one of the more generous results for the Conservatives.
All the time the question of Nigel Farage hung over discussions – could she possibly take on the most formidable and charismatic man in British politics?
One senior Tory suggested that Ms Badenoch was just “lazy” and “not willing to put the work in needed.”
The arguments, while usually cordial, often got heated and in the case of a couple of MPs almost broke out into full violence.
The speech of her life
In essence, Ms Badenoch needed to knock it out of the park in her keynote speech.
She had to show that she had both the vision and the policies to unite a broken party, confirm she is the right leader and to give the Conservatives hope of a remarkable recovery.
As she arrived on to the stage in a much smaller than usual arena, the prolonged standing ovation for her arrival was probably more in hope than expectation.
And yet when the chips were down, when all seemed grim and lost, Ms Badenoch delivered.
Having said last year that there would not be policy announcements for two years, she decided to just go for it in a speech which also showcased her at her most confident and relaxed.
She had said she wanted to do the hard thinking about policies before announcing them, and she seemed to have done exactly that.
We already knew about her plan to ditch the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR), but along came the pledges to reverse the family farm tax, VAT on private school fees and a tax raid on family businesses – policies the Tories have been vocal critics of since they were announced by the government.
All of these were not entirely surprising, as was the pledge to reverse the employment rights legislation.
But then came a big one. She said she would ban doctors from striking, just as the British Medical Association prepares for more industrial action for an eye watering 29 per cent pay rise. You could feel the sudden spark in the room.
Then there was the decision to end business rates for high street shops. In the 100th anniversary year of Margaret Thatcher’s birth with the former prime minister spending her formative years in her father’s corner shop, this seemed an appropriate tribute.
More importantly it was something which the last Tory government should have done years before, as online alternatives like Amazon left the high street in ruins.
Perhaps nothing would symbolise the fact that the Tories were “under new leadership” and are a changed party.
However, Ms Badenoch was not finished. With a flourish at the end she announced something which all Tories could behind – the abolition of stamp duty.
Homeownership and its encouragement is perhaps the most Conservative of all policies. It is exactly what Mrs Thatcher did. This was Ms Badenoch’s selling off council housing to tenants moment.
The cheers in the room were genuine. At last they had a policy (it should be said proposed by former leadership rival now shadow housing secretary Sir James Cleverly last year) to unite the party around and to take to the country.
Most importantly it was not simply just copying Reform and, unlike Farage’s policies, it appeared on the surface to be carefully worked out, even if it will cost an estimated £12bn a year.
Ms Badenoch’s “I believe” conclusion of low taxes, strong borders, women being defined biologically (she can’t escape her culture war obsession), and free speech were all things the more rightwing 2025 Conservative Party can apparently get behind.
Better than Starmer
This was different to Keir Starmer’s speech last week, where he used a prolonged attack on Reform to get through a difficult conference and unite his party.
Instead, Ms Badenoch barely mentioned Reform returning to the traditional choice of Tories versus Labour.
But what she offered was a confident vision and policy platform that will at least give her party a chance and will answer many (although not all) of the questions from her critics.
In fact, it was a sign of Ms Badenoch’s confidence that she felt secure enough to name check her would-be leadership rival at least three times.
Ironically, her rival Mr Jenrick had been talking about the need for change all week without really saying what it is. Ms Badenoch fleshed out that change and it may now be enough to allow her to lead her party into the next election. Whether she has a fighting chance then only time will tell.
