Sir Keir Starmer is facing a fight to salvage his much-vaunted deal with France to return illegal migrants and halt the increasing crossings of small boats across the English Channel.
With Emmanuel Macron arriving on Tuesday for a three-day state visit, there are concerns the prime minister’s “one in, one out” agreement is close to collapse.
It is understood that Sir Keir had hoped the agreement would be the centrepiece of the French president’s state visit, but it has stalled amid opposition from other EU countries. Italy, Spain, Greece, Malta and Cyprus wrote to the European Commission over the proposals, fearing it could see asylum seekers returned to their shores instead.
It is understood that migration will be front and centre of talks between Sir Keir and President Macron in Downing Street on Wednesday, with discussions over “returns hubs” and new tactics by French border police expected to feature heavily on the agenda. Officers were seen last week slashing inflatable boats with knives to prevent them from leaving French shores.
Downing Street insists the deal is not dead, but admitted the picture is “complex” as Britain is on course for a new record in illegal crossings.
The Channel migrant crisis, which helped destroy the last Tory government, appears to be dogging Sir Keir after a difficult first year as prime minister; his determination to “smash the gangs” and tackle the backlog of asylum cases has not reduced the numbers attempting dangerous crossings.
A Downing Street spokesperson said Sir Keir and President Macron have “an excellent working relationship”, adding that Britain’s “joint work with the French… is stronger than it’s ever been”.
Asked about the “one in, one out” agreement, the spokesperson said: “I wouldn’t comment on specific things ahead of a summit. We can expect progress on a wide range of priorities, including migration, but I’m not going to speculate on specifics ahead of a summit that is yet to take place.”
The leaders will also discuss defence and their joint efforts to create a “coalition of the willing” to maintain any peace deal that helps end the war in Ukraine.
Ahead of the visit, the pair spoke by phone on Saturday, during which they said they wanted to make “good progress” on a series of joint issues, including migration.
Mr Macron is to have the rare honour of addressing a joint sitting of the Houses of Parliament on Tuesday before being the guest of honour at an evening banquet hosted by King Charles.
The prime minister is under growing pressure to get a grip on the numbers of small boats crossing the Channel after figures published last week showed that a record number of people made the journey in the first six months of this year.
Home Office data shows a total of 19,982 people have arrived in the UK since the start of 2025 – the highest total for the halfway point of the year since data was first collected on migrant crossings in 2018.
The prime minister has been struggling to bring down both the number of boat crossings and the amount of money spent on housing asylum seekers in hotels across the UK. But he has also faced criticism from left-wing Labour MPs and refugee charities, who have accused Sir Keir of attempting to copy Reform UK’s inflammatory rhetoric.
