Boris Johnson’s promise of lucrative post-Brexit trade deals as the UK “takes back control” of its rules is on course to fail, a study warns today.
Three years have been wasted failing to agree what Britain wants from its negotiations, the Institute for Government finds – handing the advantage to countries on the other side of table.
It means the controversy over the US demand to sell its chlorinated chicken – which has stalled a deal with Washington – will be repeated, its report concludes.
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The think tank criticises the “unforced error” of launching into complex trade talks before ministers have decided what they want their post-Brexit regulations to be.
“Three years ago, we warned that the government had not set up the necessary structures for effective decision making on key trade policy issues,” said Maddy Thimont Jack, a senior researcher.
“The government did not heed that warning then, but it now needs to move urgently to put them in place. Otherwise it will find itself losing control of trade and regulatory policy to better-prepared partners.”
The criticism comes as trade talks with the EU remain deadlocked because the government cannot agree its future state aid rules and needs to satisfy Brussels’ fears of undercutting.
Hopes of a deal with the US this year have been abandoned – and even a revamped deal with Japan has run into trouble, in a row over access for UK agricultural products.
Notoriously, Brexit-backing Conservatives claimed it would be easy to strike numerous lucrative deals with other countries, once the UK was free to negotiate alone.
1/20 Britain votes to leave the European Union – 23 June 2016
A referendum is held on Britain’s membership of the European Union. Fifty-two per cent of the country votes in favour of leaving
AFP via Getty
2/20 David Cameron resigns – 24 June 2016
David Cameron resigns on the morning of the result after leading the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU
Getty
3/20 Theresa May takes the reins – 13 July 2016
Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservative party and prime minister, winning the leadership contest unopposed after Andrea Leadsom drops out
Getty
4/20 High Court rules parliament must vote on Brexit – November 2016 – 3 November 2016
The High Court rules that parliament must vote on triggering Article 50, which would begin the Brexit process
5/20 Article 50 triggered – 28 March 2017
The prime minister triggers Article 50 after parliament endorses the result of the referendum
Getty
6/20 May calls snap election – 18 April 2018
Seeking a mandate for her Brexit plan, May goes to the country
Getty
7/20 May loses majority as Labour makes surprise gain – 8 June 2017
After a disastrous campaign, Theresa May loses her majority in the commons and turns to the DUP for support. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party makes gains after being predicted to lose heavily
AFP/Getty
8/20 Negotiations begin – 19 June 2017
David Davis and Michel Barnier, chief negotiators for the UK and EU respectively, hold a press conference on the first day of Brexit negotiations. Soon after the beginning of negotiations, it becomes clear that the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will prove a major sticking point
AFP/Getty
9/20 MPs vote that withdrawal deal must be ratified by parliament – 13 December 2017
The government suffers a defeat in parliament over the EU withdrawal agreement, guaranteeing that MPs are given a ‘meaningful vote’ on the deal
10/20 Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary – 11 July 2018
Following a summit at Chequers where the prime minister claimed to have gained cabinet support for her deal, Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary along with David Davis, the Brexit secretary
Reuters
11/20 Draft withdrawal agreement – 15 November 2018
The draft withdrawal agreement settles Britain’s divorce bill, secures the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and vice versa and includes a political declaration commiting both parties to frictionless trade in goods and cooperation on security matters. The deal also includes the backstop, which is anathema to many brexiteers and Dominic Raab and Esther McVey resign from the cabinet in protest
Getty
12/20 May resigns – 24 May 2019
After several failed attempts to pass her withdrawal agreement through the commons, Theresa May resigns
Reuters
13/20 Johnson takes over – 24 July 2019
Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party in a landslide victory. He later heads to Buckingham Palace where the Queen invites him to form a government
Getty
14/20 Parliament prorogued – 28 August 2019
Boris Johnson prorogues parliament for five weeks in the lead up to the UK’s agreed departure date of 31 October.
Stephen Morgan MP
15/20 Prorogation ruled unlawful – 24 September 2019
The High Court rules that Johnson’s prorogation of parliament is ‘unlawful’ after a legal challenge brought by businesswoman Gina Miller
Getty
16/20 Johnson agrees deal with Varadkar – October
Following a summit in Merseyside, Johnson agrees a compromise to the backstop with Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar – making the withdrawal agreement more palatable to Brexiteers
Getty
17/20 Final Say march demands second referendum – 19 October 2019
As parliament passes the Letwin amendment requiring the prime minister to request a further delay to Brexit, protesters take to the streets in the final show of force for a Final Say referendum
Getty
18/20 Johnson wins 80 seat majority – 12 December 2019
The Conservatives win the December election in a landslide, granting Boris Johnson a large majority to pass through his brexit deal and pursue his domestic agenda
Getty
19/20 Withdrawal deal passes parliament – 20 December 2019
The withdrawal agreement passes through the commons with a majority of 124
Getty
20/20 EU parliament backs UK withdrawal deal – 29 January 2020
Members of the European parliament overwhelmingly back the ratification of Britain’s departure, clearing the way for Brexit two days later on 31 January. Following the vote, members join hands and sing Auld Lang Syne
AFP/Getty
1/20 Britain votes to leave the European Union – 23 June 2016
A referendum is held on Britain’s membership of the European Union. Fifty-two per cent of the country votes in favour of leaving
AFP via Getty
2/20 David Cameron resigns – 24 June 2016
David Cameron resigns on the morning of the result after leading the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU
Getty
3/20 Theresa May takes the reins – 13 July 2016
Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservative party and prime minister, winning the leadership contest unopposed after Andrea Leadsom drops out
Getty
4/20 High Court rules parliament must vote on Brexit – November 2016 – 3 November 2016
The High Court rules that parliament must vote on triggering Article 50, which would begin the Brexit process
5/20 Article 50 triggered – 28 March 2017
The prime minister triggers Article 50 after parliament endorses the result of the referendum
Getty
6/20 May calls snap election – 18 April 2018
Seeking a mandate for her Brexit plan, May goes to the country
Getty
7/20 May loses majority as Labour makes surprise gain – 8 June 2017
After a disastrous campaign, Theresa May loses her majority in the commons and turns to the DUP for support. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party makes gains after being predicted to lose heavily
AFP/Getty
8/20 Negotiations begin – 19 June 2017
David Davis and Michel Barnier, chief negotiators for the UK and EU respectively, hold a press conference on the first day of Brexit negotiations. Soon after the beginning of negotiations, it becomes clear that the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will prove a major sticking point
AFP/Getty
9/20 MPs vote that withdrawal deal must be ratified by parliament – 13 December 2017
The government suffers a defeat in parliament over the EU withdrawal agreement, guaranteeing that MPs are given a ‘meaningful vote’ on the deal
10/20 Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary – 11 July 2018
Following a summit at Chequers where the prime minister claimed to have gained cabinet support for her deal, Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary along with David Davis, the Brexit secretary
Reuters
11/20 Draft withdrawal agreement – 15 November 2018
The draft withdrawal agreement settles Britain’s divorce bill, secures the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and vice versa and includes a political declaration commiting both parties to frictionless trade in goods and cooperation on security matters. The deal also includes the backstop, which is anathema to many brexiteers and Dominic Raab and Esther McVey resign from the cabinet in protest
Getty
12/20 May resigns – 24 May 2019
After several failed attempts to pass her withdrawal agreement through the commons, Theresa May resigns
Reuters
13/20 Johnson takes over – 24 July 2019
Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party in a landslide victory. He later heads to Buckingham Palace where the Queen invites him to form a government
Getty
14/20 Parliament prorogued – 28 August 2019
Boris Johnson prorogues parliament for five weeks in the lead up to the UK’s agreed departure date of 31 October.
Stephen Morgan MP
15/20 Prorogation ruled unlawful – 24 September 2019
The High Court rules that Johnson’s prorogation of parliament is ‘unlawful’ after a legal challenge brought by businesswoman Gina Miller
Getty
16/20 Johnson agrees deal with Varadkar – October
Following a summit in Merseyside, Johnson agrees a compromise to the backstop with Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar – making the withdrawal agreement more palatable to Brexiteers
Getty
17/20 Final Say march demands second referendum – 19 October 2019
As parliament passes the Letwin amendment requiring the prime minister to request a further delay to Brexit, protesters take to the streets in the final show of force for a Final Say referendum
Getty
18/20 Johnson wins 80 seat majority – 12 December 2019
The Conservatives win the December election in a landslide, granting Boris Johnson a large majority to pass through his brexit deal and pursue his domestic agenda
Getty
19/20 Withdrawal deal passes parliament – 20 December 2019
The withdrawal agreement passes through the commons with a majority of 124
Getty
20/20 EU parliament backs UK withdrawal deal – 29 January 2020
Members of the European parliament overwhelmingly back the ratification of Britain’s departure, clearing the way for Brexit two days later on 31 January. Following the vote, members join hands and sing Auld Lang Syne
AFP/Getty
“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” Mr Johnson said before the 2016 referendum. “I think there is a huge opportunity. Do free trade deals, believe in ourselves.”
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In fact, a deal with the US, even if it can be struck, would add only 0.2 per cent to GDP in the long run, the Treasury has estimated – and a continued deal with Tokyo only 0.07 per cent.
The IfG study, Trade and Regulation after Brexit, says it will be impossible to marry the desire for a clutch of new agreements and for “regulatory autonomy” – because a weakened UK will be told to change its standards in return.
It warns ministers that the UK:
* Could “easily fall victim” to other nations “threatening to collapse the talks if they do not get what they want”.
* Will be “vulnerable to challenge” at the World Trade Organisation, if its currently dysfunctional dispute system becomes operational again.
* Has failed to agree its stance on key regulatory issues, which risks it being “pushed into making concessions it shouldn’t”.
* Risks damaging the union, unless it can reach agreement with the other UK nations, which are responsible for implementing trade deals and “could choose not to”
