Democrats have cast more than twice as many ballots as Republicans so far.
In fewer than 48 hours, we’ll most likely know who is going to be running the nation’s most populous state next year.
In case you need a refresher: On Tuesday evening, polls close in the election that asks Californians whether Gov. Gavin Newsom should be removed from office and, if so, who should replace him. If Newsom is recalled, the person who takes his seat would serve the remainder of his term, set to end in January 2023.
It probably goes without saying, but this election is a big deal.
Newsom’s possible ouster is only the fourth recall of a governor to make the ballot in U.S. history. It has the potential to put a Republican at the helm of a heavily Democratic state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2006. And the election, as I’m sure you haven’t forgotten, comes as our state is grappling with a pandemic, historic drought, housing crisis and much more.
Here’s where things stand on election eve:
Newsom’s lead in the polls appears to be growing
For Newsom to keep his job, more than half of voters must mark “no” on the question of whether he should be recalled from office.
As of Sunday evening, a polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight showed 56 percent of Californians opposing the recall and 42 percent supporting it. An average compiled by RealClearPolitics was almost identical.
Newsom’s significant lead may be somewhat surprising if you remember how close the race appeared just a few months ago.
In July, a poll by The Los Angeles Times and the University of California, Berkeley, found a near 50-50 split on the recall among likely voters. When that same group released new data Friday, 60 percent of likely voters opposed recalling Newsom, more than 21 percentage points higher than the fraction that wanted to oust him.
How Newsom probably got ahead
So what changed?
Democrats started paying attention. Before ballots arrived in mailboxes last month and polling began to suggest that Newsom might actually lose his job, many liberals probably assumed that the election was a long shot and that they could skip voting.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in California nearly two-to-one, so the biggest threat to Newsom is Democrats not turning out to vote in big enough numbers to counteract Republican enthusiasm for the ouster.
But over the past two months, Newsom has been hammering home the idea that he is all that stands between Californians and Trumpism. The governor’s message is that everything that terrified California liberals about the last president is on the ballot, from vaccine resistance to climate denial, as my colleague Shawn Hubler reports.
His argument has been aided by the emergence of the conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, who once called the election of Donald Trump “divine intervention,” as the front-runner vying to take his job.
Newsom has also benefited from more than $70 million in campaign contributions, much of it collected in July and August, which has allowed him to out-advertise his opponents in recent weeks.
What we know about the returns so far
In this election, as with last year’s, all of the state’s 22 million-plus registered voters were sent mail-in ballots.
So although the polls don’t close until tomorrow, 35 percent of registered voters already cast their ballots as of Sunday evening, according to an election tracker from Political Data Inc., a nonpartisan supplier of voter information.
Nearly 4.1 million registered Democrats have mailed in their ballots, compared with 1.9 million Republicans and 1.8 million independents, the data shows.
It’s unclear how much those figures will shift in the coming days. There are still ballots in the mail, and many Republicans may wait to vote in person.
Some political experts predict that turnout may surpass 50 percent of registered voters, roughly double what’s typically expected for a special election.
Paul Mitchell, vice president at Political Data Inc., told The New York Times that if 60 percent of Californians cast their ballots, “it’s almost mathematically impossible for Newsom to lose.”
The biggest question, for both sides then, is whether we’ll cross that threshold.
For more:
Have a question about the recall? The Times has answers.
We’ve gotten a lot of email inquiries about what would happen if Newsom resigned before Election Day. My colleague Jill Cowan has that story.
In some places in California, there is more than one recall on the ballot. Read more from The Times about other recall efforts.
The rest of the news
statewide news
“We didn’t have a plan”: As wildfires rage across California, rural communities are struggling to ensure the safety of older people as well as those with disabilities.
College admissions scandal: Opening statements begin on Monday for the first parents to face trial in a sweeping college admissions case that exposed the role that money plays in the fight for seats at brand-name schools. The first two parents facing trial tried to get their children into the University of Southern California.
Loitering for prostitution: The police in California would no longer be able to arrest anyone for loitering with the intent to engage in prostitution under a bill approved by state lawmakers on Friday, reports The Associated Press.
Assisted death law: California lawmakers moved to extend and streamline the state’s physician-assisted suicide law, reducing the time terminal patients must wait to acquire the fatal drugs, according to The Associated Press.
Other new laws: California lawmakers finished their work for the 2021 legislative session on Friday night. The Associated Press offers a guide on what bills passed, including a bill to decriminalize jaywalking and another requiring ethnic studies in high school.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Fire shuts down highway: A fire erupted Saturday afternoon in northern Los Angeles County that prompted officials to shut down a section of Interstate 5, The Associated Press reports.
Reinforcing coastal bluffs: Construction begins this month on a nearly 300-foot-long sea wall to protect the coastal bluffs below the heavily traveled railroad tracks in Del Mar in San Diego County, reports The San Diego Union-Tribune.
Unvaccinated couple dies of Covid: An Inland Empire family is left reeling after a father of five dies of Covid-19 just weeks after his wife, KTLA reports.
Joining the military: As part of a Sept. 11 memorial ceremony at the Nixon Library, five young men took the U.S. Army Oath of Service to join the military.
Vaccine mandate: West Hollywood city officials have announced that people must show proof of vaccination against Covid-19 to enter restaurants, bars, gyms and other businesses with indoor operations, according to The Los Angeles Times.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Wildfires: Multiple wildfires started by a recent lightning storm continued to grow in steep, difficult-to-reach areas of Sequoia National Park and were zero percent contained as of Sunday afternoon, according to The Fresno Bee.
Lack of drinking water: Two Fresno County towns with no drinking water are drowning in debt while hope fades for a new well, reports The Fresno Bee.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
First transgender bishop: The Evangelical Lutheran Church in America installed its first openly transgender bishop in a service held in San Francisco’s Grace Cathedral over the weekend, according to The Associated Press.
Coronavirus: Mayor Darrell Steinberg of Sacramento has tested positive for Covid-19, reports The Sacramento Bee.
Patrick’s Point State Park: The long-contested name of the popular Northern California state park may soon change for good, SFGATE reports.
What we’re eating
This one-pot orzo with tomatoes, corn and zucchini is inspired by the bountiful produce of late summer.
Where we’re traveling
Today’s California travel tip comes from Rebecca Fahrlander, a reader who lives in Bellevue, Neb. Rebecca writes:
One of my favorite destinations in the Golden State is Shelter Island in San Diego. I stay at Humphrey’s, a great concert venue and beach hotel all in one. I have traveled there many summers to hear my favorite rock groups such as The Moody Blues in concert, right next to the Pacific Ocean; to walk along the coast, and take in all that is wonderful about SoCal.
Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Please include your name and where you live, so we can share your tip in the newsletter. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com.
And before you go, some good news
The bride and groom wore wet suits to their wedding. Hers was white, and his was painted to look like a tuxedo.
The couple, who met in Los Angeles in 2018, decided against a more common ceremony on the beach and instead opted for an ocean wedding. Like, in the Pacific Ocean.
The groom is a surfer and being in the water “connected us to something greater,” the bride told The Times. Plus, it was free.
So last month, the couple bobbed on surfboards off Hermosa Beach and exchanged vows and silicon rings.
The groom told The Times: “The fish were jumping, the dolphin popped up; it was like they were our guests celebrating with us.”
Thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow. — Soumya
P.S. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Where there’s …. (5 letters).
Miles McKinley and Briana Scalia contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.
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Source: Elections - nytimes.com
