The UK will urge Nato allies at a key summit to step up supplies of weapons to Ukraine, as fears grow that the stalled Russian army is set for a prolonged war of attrition relying on indiscriminate shelling of civilians.
Western officials believe that Russian advances have effectively stopped because of the unexpectedly strong resistance, but that the Ukrainians are unable to reverse inroads into their territory.
There is no evidence that Ukrainian forces are running out of weaponry or ammunition, but supply plans drawn up in anticipation of swift Russian victory are now having to be rethought as the war threatens to grind on indefinitely.
Prime minister Boris Johnson will tell Western allies at Thursday’s summit that they should not set a “red line” which would trigger additional supplies of defensive arms to Ukraine, such as the deployment of chemical or biological weapons by Vladimir Putin.
While use of unconventional weapons would represent an escalation of the conflict, Western officials said that Russia is already escalating the war by its indiscriminate use of artillery and air assaults on built-up areas.
”What the UK will be saying later in the week is that there is an immediate imperative to support the Ukrainians now and that the Russian tactics using indiscriminate fire into civilian centres is inherently escalatory,” said one official.
“We shouldn’t consider that we’re in a stable position and that any escalation, whether chemical or biological weapon, is a step up. It would be a change, but we are already escalating and the Ukrainians need support now.
“So we will be speaking to our international partners to encourage them to increase the flow of weapons to the Ukrainians – those weapons being entirely defensive in nature, but enabling them to not only just stop at short range, but also to improve their ability to to resist.
“The use of chemical and biological weapons is a very important international taboo which we must maintain. But we mustn’t get in a position where we only consider that we could go further if they are used.
“Every day that passes with indiscriminate shelling into civilian populations continues to make the current situation worse and might very well deserve a further response.”
Western officials were unable to confirm Kyiv’s claims that Russian forces are within a few days of running out of essential supplies like food and fuel.
But they believe it is no longer possible for Putin to achieve his initial war aims of a swift takeover of Ukraine’s major cities and the installation of a puppet regime in Kyiv. Estimates of up to 10,000 Russian deaths – and as many as three or four times as many injuries – are believed to be “reasonable”, imposing a “significant drain” on Moscow’s ability to press forward its attack.
“The Russian advance has been stopped but the Ukrainians don’t have the capability to reverse it and roll it back,” said one official. “So it has ground, not quite to a halt but to very, very slow progress. But we’re not seeing yet any sign of Russian retreats or Ukrainian counterattacks.”
But the Russian president is showing no sign yet of reversing his invasion, instead switching to siege tactics of encircling and bombarding civilian centres, such as the port of Mariupol, which has seen savage attacks on residential areas, hospitals and civic buildings.
The use of hi-tech hypersonic weapons has been “showy”, but is unlikely to materially change the progress of the campaign, Western officials believe. It is “not likely but plausible” that a frustrated Putin could resort to chemical or biological weapons.
Western analysts believe that the most likely scenario now is a lengthy war of attrition, with Putin attempting to grind down Ukrainian resistance with massive and indiscriminate firepower, rather than tone down the “maximalist” ambitions which he initially intended to achieve by the swift capture of Kyiv.
Western officials believe this requires Ukraine’s allies to step up the flow of materiel to the country’s defenders, changing plans which initially envisaged a move to insurgent warfare against Russian occupiers following a successful invasion.
“The thing we should be focused on – and we are focused on – is first of all ensuring that Ukrainians continue to have the means to defend themselves,” said one official.
“This is not the position that we expected to find ourselves in at this point in the conflict and their needs for support are greater and different to what we originally anticipated.”
He added: “We are speaking to the Ukrainians constantly about the requirements for weapons. They are obviously expending a lot of ordnance and this is more than we anticipated, because we expected that by this stage, we might be supporting an insurgency on a more limited scale.
“We are trying to step up the flow of weapons that they need to meet that new requirement, and there are constant shortages, but I’ve seen I have seen no evidence that they are running out or that we would let them.”
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