Keir Starmer could secure a comfortable 56-seat majority for Labour and unseat Boris Johnson at the next general election, according to a new poll released on the first day of the party’s annual conference in Liverpool.
The Savanta ComRes survey of more than 6,000 voters put Labour a clear 12 points ahead of the Conservatives, on 45 per cent to 33 per cent for Liz Truss’s party.
And constituency-by-constituency analysis of the results showed Tories could shed a massive 146 MPs, including many in key Red Wall seats won by Johnson in 2019.
However, the pollsters warned that Sir Keir’s chances of seizing the keys to 10 Downing Street remain “precarious”, as the loss of only a point or two in the polls could send him towards hung parliament territory.
Former prime minister Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat was among those likely to fall to Labour according to the Savanta analysis.
Other prominent Tories who could lose their place in parliament include defence secretary Ben Wallace in Wyre and Preston North and Northern Ireland minister and leading Brexiteer Steve Baker in Wycombe.
Former prime minister Tony Blair’s Sedgefield seat was among the Red Wall constituencies which would return to the Labour fold under the analysis, using the MRP method of applying polling figures at a local level.
And Starmer also stands to regain the totemic Workington seat – home of the “Workington man” deemed typical of the socially conservative Leave-voting working-class voters in the Midlands and North of England who switched to Tories under Johnson – as well as longtime Labour strongholds lost in 2019 like Ashfield, Bassetlaw and Blyth Valley.
However, the polling did show some traditional bellwether constituencies – swing seats which usually fall to the eventual victor of an election – not going Labour’s way, with the Conservatives holding Dartford, Portsmouth North, Nuneaton and Great Yarmouth.
In all, Labour stands to gain 154 seats compared to its current tally, to reach a total of 353 seats, against 211 for Tories, 48 for the SNP (up four) and 15 for Liberal Democrats (up one), according to the MRP analysis.
The survey was completed before Friday’s sensational mini-budget, which saw chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng borrow £45bn to fund tax cuts largely benefiting the rich and businesses.
Savanta political research director Chris Hopkins said: “This MRP model highlights both the potential and precarious nature of Labour’s polling lead at the moment.
“While this model gives Labour a 56-seat majority with a 12 point lead over the Conservatives, a one-point swing the other way could reduce that majority considerably, and any bigger swing back towards Liz Truss’ s party could deprive Labour of a majority at all, even if their national vote share trumps the Conservative figure by eight to nine points.
“Labour need to hope that any Truss bounce is short-lived, and capitalise on an economic outlook that rarely rewards governing parties at the ballot box.
“If Labour can consistently generate double-digit poll leads over the government, Keir Starmer will be well on course for Downing Street, and therefore this conference feels a crucial moment in his leadership.
“He has an opportunity now to really differentiate Labour from the economic policies of a Truss-led government, and if he can convince voters that it is Labour, rather than the Conservatives, that have the answers to tackle the multitude of issues the country faces, the poll lead Labour have enjoyed throughout 2022 may start to feel more secure than it currently does.”
– Savanta ComRes questioned 6,226 adults in Britain on 15 and 16 September.
