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Louise Thomas
Editor
If the opinion polls are correct and Labour storms to power, Sir Keir Starmer will have no time to celebrate his victory.
The first few days and weeks as prime minister will be a whirlwind that would make the difficult job as leader of the opposition look easy with hindsight.
The incoming prime minister’s in tray will be more daunting than usual because of a rotten economic inheritance – in sharp contrast to 1997, when Tony Blair took over with the economy growing, which eventually allowed him to boost spending on public services.
Sir Keir’s first big task, if elected, will be to appoint his cabinet and junior ministers. Most of the top jobs are expected to be filled by those who held them in opposition, but there could be some tweaks.
One headache: the number of ministers who sit in the Commons is limited to 95 but 109 Labour MPs were on the front bench in the last parliament. When the Lords is included, Labour had more opposition frontbenchers (146) than are paid ministerial posts (109).
Would Sir Keir scale back his team and ask many of them to forsake their ministerial salary?
Another dilemma would be whether to appoint as ministers the “retreads” who have returned to the Commons after time out.
The centre of government, 10 Downing Street and the Cabinet Office, would likely be restructured to reflect Sir Keir’s five “missions” to ensure more joined-up government across departments. Figures from business may be appointed to “mission boards” chaired by the PM.
He would be likely to create an inner cabinet or “quad” including Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves and Pat McFadden, with other ministers joining it when their briefs are discussed.
If he triumphs at the ballot box, Sir Keir has promised to hit the ground running and start addressing voters’ concerns on day one. Labour insiders say they have announcements up their sleeve to show momentum in a first 100 days plan.
They suggest the big idea would be swift action to streamline planning rules to allow more housebuilding in the green belt to enable Labour to hit its target to build 1.5 million homes in the five-year parliament.
Other early measures would reflect Starmer’s modest first steps, including plans to cut NHS waiting lists and recruit 6,500 teachers.
Foreign affairs will loom large in the opening days – perhaps larger than Sir Keir might be expecting.
After the traditional phone calls with world leaders, who will be queuing up to congratulate the new PM, he would head to Washington on 9 July for a summit to mark Nato’s 75th anniversary, to be dominated by the war in Ukraine.
There, Sir Keir would be feted by his fellow leaders, who love a winner. He would be wise to enjoy it while it lasts.
The love-in would no doubt continue as Sir Keir would be tasked with hosting a meeting of the 47-strong European Political Community at Blenheim Palace on 18 July.
Although not an EU institution, the PM would pledge to re-set relations and start talking to EU leaders about an ambitious security deal he hopes would extend to economic and border security, and how to reduce post-Brexit trade barriers.
An urgent task will be to finalise the King’s Speech on 17 July, which will set out the government’s legislative programme.
Bills will likely include setting up Great British Energy, a publicly owned clean energy firm; take the rail network back into public ownership when franchises expire; tackle anti-social behaviour and reform mental health laws.
A border security command would be created to show the government is doing something about the small boats when it formally scraps the Tories’ Rwanda scheme.
Labour would make a start on its plans to enhance workers’ rights but would also consult business on the detail. Some measures might be delayed because legislation which sounds easy in opposition can be difficult to draft.
The economy will be centre stage. Rachel Reeves, if her party triumphs, would be the UK’s first female chancellor, and would settle down to plan her first Budget, expected in October. Her big decision after inspecting the nation’s books: whether to claim a “doctor’s mandate” and raise taxes immediately in the hope of blaming the Tories, or delay any increases in the hope stronger economic growth make them unnecessary.
Ms Reeves would also lay the ground for a government-wide spending review to take effect from next April.
Sir Keir would be keen to demonstrate he is keeping his promise to return politics to public service after the rule-breaking of the Tory era. He may move quickly to set up an independent ethics commission.
While the new government would probably enjoy a few days of positive headlines, it might not take long for events to blow its first 100 days strategy off course.
Ministers would be expected to hold direct talks with the junior doctors in an attempt to end the long-running dispute over their 35 per cent pay claim. Sir Keir has rejected it but would be keen to avoid the further strikes threatened. However, Whitehall officials are worried about “contagion” if the British Medical Association wins a generous settlement.
Public sector workers have great expectations after years of restraint, and decisions would be due shortly on pay awards which could cost the government about £6bn.
“Known unknowns” that will make incoming ministers nervous include warnings that the prison population might hit its limit of 88,778. Tackling the backlog in the courts, another inherited problem, could add to the pressure on the prisons without an expanded early release scheme.
One early crisis could be the collapse of Thames Water, which is on a risk register drawn up by Sue Gray, Sir Keir’s chief of staff, which has been dubbed “Sue’s shit list” in Labour land.
It is “too big to fail” and so ministers might have to consider temporary nationalisation to maintain supplies to its 16 million customers.
Despite the parlous state of the public finances, Ms Reeves would face many demands for money. Several universities are believed to be on the brink of going bust.
More local authorities might also run out of money; the Local Government Association says councils will have a £4bn deficit over the next two years. Social care is perennially short of resources and may need a short-term injection until a “fair pay agreement” is introduced. So might the NHS.
Although the first 100 days will include the summer recess, Sir Keir would have to accept that his team will need a break to catch their breath in August. But the hard work will resume in the first week of September.
