W.T.O. Projects Sharp Pullback in Global Trade, Citing Trump’s Tariffs

The World Trade Organization forecast on Wednesday that President Trump’s trade policies would shave nearly three percentage points off the volume of global trade in goods this year, as tariffs raise the price of U.S. imports, invite retaliation and slow economic activity.

At the start of the year, the W.T.O. expected goods trading to continue growing roughly in line with the global economy, expanding by 2.7 percent. Now it expects it to contract by 0.2 percent instead. That’s a sharp drop from last year, when goods trade grew by 2.9 percent.

Mr. Trump has introduced a suite of tariffs, including a 10 percent tariff on most of the world, a minimum tariff of 145 percent on U.S. imports from China, levies on goods from Canada and Mexico and sector-specific tariffs targeting steel, aluminum and vehicles. The Trump administration says this will help bring manufacturing back to the United States and boost the economy, though many economists have predicted the tariffs will instead be a drag on economic activity.

The W.T.O., a Geneva-based group that monitors patterns in global trade and coordinates trade negotiations and disputes among its members, said that the estimates were based on the tariff situation as of Monday, and that trade could shrink further “if the situation deteriorates.”

The tariffs will have the biggest impact on trade in North America, the group said, where it expects exports will plummet 12.6 percent and imports will drop 9.6 percent in 2025. Asia will be the next most affected, but Asia and Europe will still post modest growth in both exports and imports, the group forecasts.

The group said global trade was particularly at risk from the potential return of Mr. Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs.” The president paused those tariffs last week for 90 days, and the Trump administration is now trying to negotiate trade deals with individual countries.