The number of overcrowded small boats arriving in the UK carrying more than 80 people has quadrupled in three years, casting doubt over Labour’s pledge to stop migrants from making the dangerous journey.
Fresh analysis from the Home Office showed that 33 boats made the perilous journey while carrying more than 80 people in the year to April 2025 – up from eight in the year to April 2022.
While the overall number of dinghies, typically made to carry up to 20 people safely, arriving declined from 1,116 in 2022 to 738 in 2025, more people have been crammed onto each vessel for the crossing.
The Home Office datashowed that the number of days with good weather conditions for migrants to cross the English Channel this year has more than doubled compared to previous years.
The government published the statistics just days after a record number of daily arrivals for this year when 1,195 migrants made the journey to the UK in 19 boats on Saturday.
It comes despite Labour in December claiming that the government had broken the link between favourable weather conditions and an influx of migrant crossings.
There were 60 so-called “red” days between January 1 and April 30 this year, when factors such as wind speed, wave height and the likelihood of rain meant crossings were classed by officials as “likely” or “highly likely”.
Some 11,074 migrants arrived in the UK during these four months after crossing the Channel.
By contrast, there were 27 red days in the same period last year, less than half the number in 2025, with 7,567 arrivals recorded – nearly a third lower than the total for this year.
There were also 27 red days in the first four months of 2022, with 23 red days in 2023, with 6,691 and 5,946 arrivals in these periods, respectively.
Reacting to the figures, shadow home secretary Chris Philp said: “Labour seems to think praying for bad weather is a good border security strategy.
“This is a weak government, with no plan to end illegal immigrants crossing the Channel.
“Blaming the weather for the highest ever crossing numbers so far this year is the border security equivalent of a lazy student claiming ‘the dog ate my homework’.”
Assessments of the likelihood of migrant crossings are prepared for the Home Office by the Met Office.
Red days mean the probability of migrant activity in the Channel is greater than 55 per cent, with crossings classed as “likely” or “highly likely”.
The analysis is based on data recorded in the Dover Strait and does not consider wider factors such as the availability of dinghies.
The cumulative total arrivals for the year is 14,812 – the highest for the first five months of a year since data collection began in 2018.
Gunes Kalkan, of Safe Passage International, said the rise only increases the risk to people’s lives.
“This indicates the government’s approach isn’t working, as the smugglers continue to exploit the lack of safe routes for refugees, cramming more and more people dangerously on each boat,” he said.
“If this government is serious about saving lives and stopping the smugglers, it must open safe routes and expand refugee family reunion.”
Downing Street said the government wanted to break the link between favourable weather conditions and the number of English Channel crossings by small boats but acknowledged there were “no quick fixes”.
Meanwhile, officials are understood to be pessimistic about the prospect of bringing numbers down this year, with measures not expected to start paying off until 2026.
The government has vowed to crack down on people smuggling gangs, including by handing counter-terror-style powers to law enforcement agencies under the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, currently going through Parliament.
However, they have faced accusations of mimicking Reform UK, after they began publishing videos of early morning raids and Sir Keir Starmer echoed the language of Enoch Powell in a major speech earlier this year.
A Home Office spokesperson said: “This government is restoring grip to the broken asylum system it inherited, that saw a whole criminal smuggling enterprise allowed to develop, where gangs have been able to exploit periods of good weather to increase the rate of crossings for too long.”
The spokesperson added that 9,000 crossings have been prevented from the French coastline this year.
