Nearly 23 million additional deaths are expected by 2030 as a result of countries like the US and UK dramatically cutting their overseas aid, a new report estimates.
The peer-reviewed study, produced by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and published in the influential health journal The Lancet, finds that cuts to aid programmes in 93 countries – including 38 in Sub-Saharan Africa – will result in 22.6m extra deaths by 2030.
With that total including some 5.4 million children under the age of five, the findings have been labelled a “humanitarian catastrophe”.
“These findings give a voice to millions of vulnerable people and show the profound moral cost of the zero-sum approach many political leaders are taking,” said Dr Rajiv J Shah, president of The Rockefeller Foundation, which helped to fund the report.
“Though it will take years to adequately assess the full toll of aid cuts, this early projection is an urgent call to action,” added Dr Shah, who is also a former administrator of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which is the agency that managed most American aid programmes before it was closed by Donald Trump last year.
“This humanitarian catastrophe is not inevitable, but preventing it will require all of us to act with urgency,” Dr Shah added.
The ISGlobal report looked at the impact of aid cuts across 93 countries, comprising 38 in Sub-Saharan Africa, 21 in Asia, 12 in Latin America, 12 in the Middle East and North Africa, and 10 in Europe.
The research is based on an analysis of 20 years of development data from those countries, which are home to some 6.3 billion people.
The methodology used also reveals that over the course of 2002-2021, overseas aid helped reduce child mortality by 39 per cent; reduced HIV/AIDS deaths by 70 per cent; and reduced 56 per cent of deaths from both malaria and nutritional deficiencies.
Lisa Wise, director of global outcomes at Save the Children, which is one of many NGOs that has been hit hard by the aid cuts, added: “This analysis confirms what we’re already seeing- cuts to aid are not just budget decisions, they are death sentences for children.
“Aid cuts are already forcing us to close health clinics and nutrition programmes, end protections for girls from violence, and halt climate projects at a time when children need them more than ever,” she said.
“The aid system needs to be updated as global challenges evolve, but the transition to new ways of working has to be managed properly – rather than making swinging cuts without considering children for whom aid programmes are a lifeline,” Ms Wise added.
International aid fell for the first time in six years in 2024, and with the US, UK, France and Germany all making significant cuts to their aid budgets, significant further reductions in aid are expected in both 2025 and 2026.
The Paris-based Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which tracks aid flows from the world’s richest countries, projects that aid could decline by as much as 18 per cent between 2024 to 2025.
Particularly devastating to aid efforts in 2025 was Trump’s closure of USAID, which chaotically ended funding for many projects mid-way through completion, devastating climate resilience programmes and healthcare systems in numerous developing countries.
Previous research from ISGlobal using the same methodology found that the dismantling of USAID alone could lead to more than 14 million additional preventable deaths by 2030.
The UK, meanwhile, cut its aid budget from 0.5 to 0.3 per cent of Gross National Income from 2027. The British development sector is keenly awaiting news of where exactly UK aid cuts are going to fall, with NGOs currently expecting the announcement later in February.
“Our analyses show that development assistance is among the most effective global health interventions available,” said Davide Rasella, coordinator of the ISGlobal research.
“Withdrawing this support now would not only reverse hard-won progress, but would translate directly into millions of preventable adult and child deaths in the coming years,” he added.
The stark findings of the report are backed by numerous stories of devastating cuts to aid programmes across the world from the past year, which The Independent has reported on as part of its Rethinking Global Aid reporting strand
“We are witnessing the impact of aid cuts every single day,” Magnus Corfixen, humanitarian lead for Oxfam GB, told The Independent. “Every aspect of people’s lives is being affected. Food, clean water and healthcare are not choices or luxuries – they are fundamental human rights and the foundations of a dignified life.”
Speaking on the impact of aid cuts on responses to the climate crisis specifically, Corfixen added: “When aid is cut, communities aren’t just losing funding – they’re losing the very tools that help them adapt to a climate crisis they did not create. Every reduction in support threatens communities’ livelihoods, and increases the risk to lives of people facing rising temperatures, floods and droughts.”
This article has been produced as part of The Independent’s Rethinking Global Aid project
Source: UK Politics - www.independent.co.uk
