The transport secretary has admitted ministers “don’t know how the virus will respond”, even as more staff are encouraged to return to work today.
Grant Shapps raised the prospect of the critical ‘R’ reproduction rate going back “above one” if the lockdown easing backfired – a day after a group of scientists warned the strategy was “dangerous”.
“We don’t know how virus will respond,” Mr Shapps said, warning it depended on whether people followed new guidance widely criticised as confusing.
Download the new Independent Premium app
Sharing the full story, not just the headlines
The admission comes despite ensuring the ‘R’ rate remains below one – meaning transmission of coronavirus is slowing – being the key government test for relaxing restrictions.
Before the changes were agreed, scientists were expected to set out specific forecasts for the impact of each possible loosening, such as allowing people to go outdoors more, reopening schools or more workplaces opening up.
Mr Shapps described the changes being introduced – the most significant being staff returning to work if they can’t work at home – as “baby steps” that could be reversed.
And, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “If we see the R number go up again – particularly above one – we will have to take steps.
“We all know what that means, it means going back to staying at home.”
Seeking to calm fears of overcrowding on public transport, he added: “We have got a big team of marshallers going out through Network Rail, Transport for London.
1/30
Staff react outside Salford Royal Hospital in Manchester during a minute’s silence to pay tribute to the NHS staff and key workers who have died during the coronavirus outbreak
PA
2/30
Staff inside Camberwell bus depot in London, during a minute’s silence
PA
3/30
NHS staff at the Mater hospital in Belfast, during a minute’s silence to pay tribute to the NHS staff and key workers who have died during the coronavirus outbreak.
PA
4/30
Shoppers observe a minute’s silence in Tescos in Shoreham
Getty
5/30
Firefighters outside Godstone fire station
PA
6/30 Salford Royal Hospital
Getty
7/30 Salford Royal Hospital
PA
8/30
Hospital workers take part in a protest calling on the British government to provide PPE across Britain for all workers in care, the NHS and other vital public services after a nationwide minute’s silence at University College Hospital in London
AP
9/30
A school children’s poster hanging outside Glenfield Hospital during a minute’s silence
Getty
10/30
A man holds a placard that reads “People’s health before profit” outside St Thomas hospital
Getty
11/30
Staff members applaud outside the Royal Derby Hospital, following a minute’s silence
PA
12/30
Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill, Prime minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, stand inside 10 Downing Street, London, to observe a minutes silence in tribute to the NHS staff and key workers who have died during the coronavirus outbreak
PA
13/30 University College Hospital, London
Hospital workers hold placards with the names of their colleagues who have died from coronavirus as they take part in a protest calling on the British government to provide PPE
AP
14/30
Staff at Waterloo Station in London, stand to observe a minute’s silence, to pay tribute to NHS and key workers who have died with coronavirus
AP
15/30
Medical staff at the Louisa Jordan hospital stand during a UK wide minutes silence to commemorate the key workers who have died with coronavirus in Glasgow
Getty
16/30 London
An NHS worker observes a minute’s silence at Chelsea and Westminster Hospital
Reuters
17/30 Chelsea and Westminster Hospital in London
AFP via Getty
18/30 Belfast, Northern Ireland
NHS staff observe a minutes silence at Mater Infirmorum Hospital
Reuters
19/30 Plymouth
NHS workers hold a minute’s silence outside the main entrance of Derriford Hospital
Getty
20/30
NHS Frimley Park Hospital staff at the A&E department observe a minute’s silence
Getty
21/30 Mater Infirmorum Hospital
People applaud after a minutes silence in honour of key workers
Reuters
22/30 Waterloo Station, London
AP
23/30
Wreaths laid outside Sheffield town hall
PA
24/30
A group of trade unionists and supporters standing outside Sheffield town hall
PA
25/30
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon stands outside St Andrew’s House in Edinburgh to observe a minute’s silence in tribute to the NHS staff and key workers who have died during the coronavirus outbreak
PA
26/30
Staff stand outside the Royal Derby Hospital, during a minutes silence
PA
27/30 London
Police officers observe a minutes silence at Guy’s Hospital
Reuters
28/30
A woman standing outside Sheffield town hall
PA
29/30 Royal Derby Hospital
PA
30/30 Leicester,
NHS workers during a minute’s silence outside Glenfield Hospital
Getty
1/30
Staff react outside Salford Royal Hospital in Manchester during a minute’s silence to pay tribute to the NHS staff and key workers who have died during the coronavirus outbreak
PA
2/30
Staff inside Camberwell bus depot in London, during a minute’s silence
PA
3/30
NHS staff at the Mater hospital in Belfast, during a minute’s silence to pay tribute to the NHS staff and key workers who have died during the coronavirus outbreak.
PA
4/30
Shoppers observe a minute’s silence in Tescos in Shoreham
Getty
5/30
Firefighters outside Godstone fire station
PA
6/30 Salford Royal Hospital
Getty
7/30 Salford Royal Hospital
PA
8/30
Hospital workers take part in a protest calling on the British government to provide PPE across Britain for all workers in care, the NHS and other vital public services after a nationwide minute’s silence at University College Hospital in London
AP
9/30
A school children’s poster hanging outside Glenfield Hospital during a minute’s silence
Getty
10/30
A man holds a placard that reads “People’s health before profit” outside St Thomas hospital
Getty
11/30
Staff members applaud outside the Royal Derby Hospital, following a minute’s silence
PA
12/30
Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill, Prime minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, stand inside 10 Downing Street, London, to observe a minutes silence in tribute to the NHS staff and key workers who have died during the coronavirus outbreak
PA
13/30 University College Hospital, London
Hospital workers hold placards with the names of their colleagues who have died from coronavirus as they take part in a protest calling on the British government to provide PPE
AP
14/30
Staff at Waterloo Station in London, stand to observe a minute’s silence, to pay tribute to NHS and key workers who have died with coronavirus
AP
15/30
Medical staff at the Louisa Jordan hospital stand during a UK wide minutes silence to commemorate the key workers who have died with coronavirus in Glasgow
Getty
16/30 London
An NHS worker observes a minute’s silence at Chelsea and Westminster Hospital
Reuters
17/30 Chelsea and Westminster Hospital in London
AFP via Getty
18/30 Belfast, Northern Ireland
NHS staff observe a minutes silence at Mater Infirmorum Hospital
Reuters
19/30 Plymouth
NHS workers hold a minute’s silence outside the main entrance of Derriford Hospital
Getty
20/30
NHS Frimley Park Hospital staff at the A&E department observe a minute’s silence
Getty
21/30 Mater Infirmorum Hospital
People applaud after a minutes silence in honour of key workers
Reuters
22/30 Waterloo Station, London
AP
23/30
Wreaths laid outside Sheffield town hall
PA
24/30
A group of trade unionists and supporters standing outside Sheffield town hall
PA
25/30
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon stands outside St Andrew’s House in Edinburgh to observe a minute’s silence in tribute to the NHS staff and key workers who have died during the coronavirus outbreak
PA
26/30
Staff stand outside the Royal Derby Hospital, during a minutes silence
PA
27/30 London
Police officers observe a minutes silence at Guy’s Hospital
Reuters
28/30
A woman standing outside Sheffield town hall
PA
29/30 Royal Derby Hospital
PA
30/30 Leicester,
NHS workers during a minute’s silence outside Glenfield Hospital
Getty
“We have got the British Transport Police out there and we are even bringing in volunteers to remind people that we don’t want to see platforms crowded.”
Mr Shapps also admitted a recession was looming, after the release of GDP figures for the first quarter of the year revealed the fastest shrinking since 2008.
The latest news on Brexit, politics and beyond direct to your inbox
“It is fairly clear that, since most of the impact will be in second quarter, that we will be,” he said.
And he ducked questions about likely spending cuts, pay freezes or tax cuts to follow, after a leaked Treasury document set out the measures being considered.
“I think it’s far too early to be getting into that,” Mr Shapps said, adding: “We cannot know where we will be.”
The new transport guidance urges people to avoid public transport if at all possible, by walking, cycling or driving to work.
People from different households may be able to share cars provided that they keep the windows open, it states.
Buses and trains will be limited to 10 per cent of normal capacity to maintain social distancing.
“We are asking people to be very sensible and not flood back to public transport,” Mr Shapps said.
“Even with all the trains and buses back to running when they are, there will not be enough space. It is very important that people don’t overcrowd that system that will be extremely restricted for the time being.”
