Elections

The state with the first balloting for 2024 is overflowing with candidates and reporters ahead of the Republican caucuses on Jan. 15. Here’s what to know.It’s the December before a presidential election, which means that Iowa is overflowing with candidates and reporters for its quadrennial caucuses.This year looks different, though — because Democrats have moved their first votes to other states, and because a single candidate so dominates the Republican field.Here’s what to know.What are the Iowa caucuses and how do they work?Though “primaries and caucuses” are often lumped together, they are not the same. Primaries operate the way most elections do: Voters cast ballots privately through early-voting or mail-in options, or at a polling site on Election Day. Caucuses, by contrast, require voters to attend at a specific hour and discuss their preferences publicly.At each local caucus in Iowa — in school gymnasiums, community centers and even churches — Republicans will make speeches in favor of their preferred candidates. Then caucusgoers will take a vote, and candidates’ delegates to the county convention will be nominated based on that vote. No remote participation, such as by mail or phone, will be allowed.You may have heard terms like “viability” and “realignment” in relation to the Iowa caucuses. Those refer to the Democrats’ traditional process, in which caucusgoers sorted themselves physically according to which candidate they supported. Candidates whose support was below a viability threshold were eliminated, and their supporters were able to realign with a viable candidate. Republicans do not have those procedures, and Democrats have dropped them.Caucuses have many critics because they are less accessible than primaries. There is no flexibility — people have to arrive on time and stay until the end — which means those who have to work or are otherwise unavailable at that hour are out of luck. People with disabilities often struggle to participate. So do people who feel unsafe, or simply uncomfortable, disclosing their political preferences.Most states that once held caucuses have switched to primaries, but Iowa is an exception.When are the caucuses?The Republican caucuses will be held on Jan. 15 at 7 p.m. local time.The Democratic caucuses will be held by mail. The first ballots — technically “preference cards” — will be mailed out on Jan. 12, and voters can request one until Feb. 19. Though Iowa Democrats can attend in-person gatherings on Jan. 15 to conduct other party business, they will not choose a presidential candidate then.Why are the Republican and Democratic caucuses different?The Iowa Republican Party and the Iowa Democratic Party control their own caucus procedures, and they have long chosen different ones. But the procedures are especially different this cycle because the Democratic National Committee changed its primary calendar at President Biden’s urging, while the Republican National Committee stuck to its old one.The Democrats’ rationale was to prioritize states more racially diverse than Iowa and New Hampshire, which are overwhelmingly white. Their first two states are now South Carolina, on Feb. 3, and Nevada, on Feb. 6, and Iowa is out of the early lineup. (By the D.N.C.’s schedule, New Hampshire would have voted on the same day as Nevada. But it refused to cede its first-in-the-nation primary status, which is enshrined in state law, and scheduled an unsanctioned primary for Jan. 23.)Why does Iowa go first (for Republicans)?Today, the answer is, “Because it always has.” A common argument is that, since Iowans have spent decades shouldering the responsibility of being first, they are uniquely well informed and engaged. They know how much power they hold to winnow presidential fields, this argument goes, and they take that responsibility more seriously than voters elsewhere would.Initially, though, Iowa got its spot by historical accident.After the chaos of the 1968 Democratic convention, Democrats changed their nominating process to give voters more say than party insiders. Until 1968, the party held popular votes in just a handful of states, while the rest chose a candidate at conventions; after 1968, the balance shifted strongly to popular votes in the form of primaries or caucuses.Iowa Democrats happened to schedule the earliest vote in 1972. Iowa Republicans, realizing the timing could work to the state’s benefit, followed suit in 1976 — and, on the Democratic side, Jimmy Carter took advantage of the Iowa caucuses that year to propel himself from relative obscurity to the front of the presidential pack.The power of going first thus clearly demonstrated, the Iowa Legislature passed a law requiring the state to continue scheduling its caucuses before any others.Jimmy Carter campaigning in Des Moines in 1976, the year Iowa catapulted his candidacy.Associated PressHow do the delegates work?Each precinct will be assigned a number of delegates to elect to a county convention based on the results of the caucus vote in that precinct.Over the ensuing months, the county and state conventions will confirm Iowa’s 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention, where the party’s presidential nominee will be officially chosen based on who wins a majority of the more than 2,000 delegates available nationwide.When do we typically have results?The leaders of each local Republican caucus will report results to the state party, which will tabulate and release the statewide results. This usually happens pretty quickly, within a few hours.Since Democrats are voting by mail this year, and Iowa is no longer first for them, their results won’t come until March 5.Why were there so many delays and problems in 2020?The Iowa Democrats’ reporting process collapsed in 2020, preventing them from releasing any significant results on the night of the caucuses and the full results for days.The caucusing itself went fairly smoothly, but a new app through which precincts were supposed to report their results failed and backup phone lines were jammed, so the state party couldn’t obtain the numbers. When the results were finally tabulated, they were full of errors and inconsistencies — products of manual calculations by precinct officials — and the party conducted a partial recanvass followed by a partial recount.A complicating factor was that the Iowa Democratic Party had promised to release multiple sets of results — not only the number of state-convention delegates each candidate had earned, which would determine the caucuses’ winner, but also how many supporters each candidate had in the first and second rounds of voting.That promise stemmed from 2016, when Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders in the caucuses by the tiniest of margins, and Mr. Sanders fought for an audit and accused the state party of a lack of transparency because it had not released the first- and second-round totals.Producing multiple tallies provided a more comprehensive picture and allowed for errors to be identified, but it worsened the delays when the systems failed.What is Iowa’s importance to the rest of the race?Iowa is all about momentum — the nebulous idea of who is rising and who is dead in the water, which can affect voters’ choices in other states.In terms of actual numbers, Iowa doesn’t matter much. It accounts for a tiny fraction of the delegates awarded nationwide. But its ability to set perceptions is so strong that candidates often drop out after doing poorly there, unless they have reason to believe they will do significantly better in New Hampshire. More

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Chris Christie had had enough.After standing mostly silent for the first 25 minutes of the Republican presidential debate, Mr. Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, stepped into the spotlight — and in front of an attack on Nikki Haley by Vivek Ramaswamy — with the blunt force that has become his political trademark.“Let me tell you something,” Mr. Christie barked at Mr. Ramaswamy, waving his hand after Mr. Ramaswamy suggested Ms. Haley was lacking basic knowledge about the war in Ukraine. “This is the fourth debate that you would be voted in the first 20 minutes as the most obnoxious blowhard in America. So shut up for a little while.”Mr. Ramaswamy managed a quick laugh, and quickly tried to interrupt. But Mr. Christie maintained control of the microphone, yelling at his rival across the stage in Alabama that he wasn’t finished speaking. Mr. Ramaswamy, who has been aggressive with his debate disruptions, stood down.But not for long. Mr. Ramaswamy bided his time, and then it got ugly.“Chris, your version of foreign policy experience was closing a bridge from New Jersey to New York,” Mr. Ramaswamy soon shot back, scowling at Mr. Christie across the stage and wagging his right index finger at him.It was a dig at Mr. Christie’s most devastating political moment, when his administration in New Jersey effectively shut down a busy bridge to New York as political retribution against a small-town mayor who hadn’t endorsed his re-election bid. And Mr. Ramaswamy had another sharp dig in store aimed at Mr. Christie’s weight.“So do everybody a favor,” Mr. Ramaswamy told Mr. Christie. “Just walk yourself off that stage, enjoy a nice meal and get the hell out of this race.” More

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Vivek Ramaswamy’s defense of Donald J. Trump at Wednesday’s debate quickly devolved into a laundry list of far-right conspiracy theories.After attacking his opponents for turning on Mr. Trump after supporting him, Mr. Ramaswamy took aim at “the deep state” as the real enemy of the American people.That amorphous entity, Mr. Ramaswamy claimed, clearly had a role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.“Why am I the only person, on this stage at least, who can say that Jan. 6 now does look like it was an inside job?” Mr. Ramaswamy said. (Dozens of criminal indictments and bipartisan congressional investigations rebut Mr. Ramaswamy’s argument.)While Mr. Trump has tried to make those convicted of crimes for their actions on Jan. 6 into political martyrs, the assertion that the riot was somehow an “inside job” is more often confined to the fever swamps of conspiracy theories.As if reading a far-right message board, Mr. Ramaswamy continued, claiming that the 2020 election was stolen by “big tech” (several intelligence agencies called it “the most secure in American history”) and that the 2016 election, which Mr. Trump won, was also “stolen from him by the national security establishment” because of the investigation into allegations that his campaign had colluded with Russia.And Mr. Ramaswamy claimed that the “great replacement theory” — the racist idea that minorities, sometimes manipulated by Jews, want to replace white Americans — was not a conspiracy theory but instead a “basic statement of the Democratic Party’s platform.”The “great replacement theory” has been creeping into the conservative mainstream, popularized by hosts like Tucker Carlson, and has been referenced by several mass shooters. More

For more than 15 minutes, three of the four Republican candidates on the debate stage fended off sharp questions from Megyn Kelly and made a case for their electability. But as they attacked one another’s records, former President Donald J. Trump, the dominant front-runner in the race, was notably absent from the conversation.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, Mr. Trump’s fiercest critic among his Republican opponents, took notice.“I look at my watch now. We’re 17 minutes into this debate,” Mr. Christie said to Ms. Kelly. “And except for your little speech in the beginning, we’ve had these three acting as if the race is between the four of us.”Mr. Christie, referring to Mr. Trump as “the fifth guy” and “Voldemort, he who shall not be named,” mocked the former president as a coward who “doesn’t have the guts to show up and stand here” — and denounced the other candidates for fighting among themselves while ignoring their strongest opponent, who skipped Wednesday’s debate to attend a private fund-raiser.Referring to Mr. Trump as a “dictator,” a “bully” and an “angry, bitter man,” Mr. Christie criticized his opponents on the debate stage — Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis — as too timid to criticize the former president. Maybe, he suggested, they were unwilling to do so because “they have future aspirations,” an allusion to succeeding Mr. Trump or becoming a member of his administration.“This is the problem with my three colleagues. They’re afraid to offend,” Mr. Christie said. Referring to the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, he added, “And if you’re afraid to offend Donald Trump, then what are you going to do when you sit across from President Xi?”Mr. Christie also pointed to Mr. Trump’s statements about his plans to go after his political enemies if elected to a second term, in an attempt to make the case to Trump supporters that the former president is unfit to return to the White House.“There’s no bigger issue in this race than Donald Trump,” Mr. Christie said, later adding, “This is an angry, bitter man who now wants to be back as president because he wants to exact retribution on anyone who has disagreed with him.”His comments reflected a debate strategy of sharply criticizing Mr. Trump — even if the former president is physically absent, and even if the attacks get Mr. Christie booed by Trump supporters in the audience.Mr. Christie has sought a face-to-face confrontation with Mr. Trump, and he has often expressed his frustration about having to compete against a front-runner who doesn’t want to face his opponents in a debate. More

The perils of momentum.Within minutes of the opening question in the fourth Republican primary debate, Nikki Haley — the former ambassador to the United Nations who has been rising in the polls, though she is still far behind former President Donald J. Trump — found herself on the receiving end of well-practiced attacks from Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Vivek Ramaswamy.For the first 15 minutes, Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Ramaswamy took turns heaping criticism on Ms. Haley, at times cutting each other off before Ms. Haley had time to respond.When she did, she savored the moment.“I love all the attention, fellas — thank you for that,” Ms. Haley, the only woman in the race, quipped.The attacks began as Mr. DeSantis, midway through a defense of his floundering poll numbers, pivoted to claiming that Ms. Haley did not support his law that banned transition care for transgender minors. (Ms. Haley has said she opposes such care but deflected on Wednesday, instead saying she did not think a different law Mr. DeSantis signed went far enough.)Mr. Ramaswamy, avoiding answering a question about whether he was a “unifier,” instead took aim at Ms. Haley’s personal financial endeavors, claiming she had been “bankrupt” after she left the Trump administration and had quickly looked for ways to make money.“We weren’t bankrupt when I left the U.N. — we’re people of service,” Ms. Haley replied. “My husband is in the military, and I served our country as U.N. ambassador.”Her retort did little to halt the continued assault from Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Ramaswamy, who continued a joint argument that Ms. Haley would be beholden to her wealthy donors.Again, Ms. Haley shot back.“In terms of these donors that are supporting me, they’re just jealous,” Ms. Haley said of her two rivals. “They wish they were supporting them.” More

An undefeated college football team out of Tallahassee, nudged out of contention in a high-stakes competition by a dominant old favorite?It makes sense that Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida might have taken the plight of the Florida State Seminoles a bit personally, and why, when he takes the stage at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa for the Republican primary debate on Wednesday night, it may be especially hostile terrain.On Sunday, the College Football Playoff selection committee picked the Alabama Crimson Tide — a perennially successful team with a 12-1 record — over the unbeaten Seminoles to round out the four-team bracket that will compete for the national championship.The decision has not gone over well, prompting outrage (the Seminoles’ coach said he was “disgusted and infuriated”); existential doubt (what is an undefeated season even worth?); and conspiracy theories (including the notion that ESPN, which broadcasts the championship, and its parent company, Disney, tipped the scale against Mr. DeSantis for political retribution).Mr. DeSantis went with outrage. On Sunday, he wrote on social media: “What we learned today is that you can go undefeated and win your conference championship game, but the College Football Playoff committee will ignore these results.”On Tuesday, he said that he would ask for his proposed state budget to include $1 million for litigation expenses that might arise from what he called the College Football Playoff’s “really, really poor decision” to exclude Florida State.It did not help that former President Donald J. Trump, in criticizing the decision, took yet another opportunity to troll Mr. DeSantis by suggesting that the fault might lie with him. “Florida State was treated very badly by the ‘Committee,’” Mr. Trump wrote Monday on Truth Social. “They become the first Power Five team to be left out of the College Football Playoffs. Really bad lobbying effort…Lets blame DeSanctimonious!!!”What the selection committee did not say explicitly — but to which any Alabama students in the audience at the debate will doubtless attest — is that, on balance, it viewed Alabama as the better team: The Crimson Tide won a more challenging conference, and Florida State had lost its starting quarterback to a broken leg. (The selection committee’s rules do note that “unavailability of key players” can play into its decisions.)Put simply, the Alabama debate is not going to be an ideal venue for Mr. DeSantis to air his grievances.Fortunately for him, none of the other candidates have a particular claim to Tuscaloosa, or to teams that made the playoff. Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, went to the University of Delaware but is a longtime Notre Dame fan.Vivek Ramaswamy, a Harvard graduate, is from Ohio. (Mr. DeSantis graduated from Yale, whose football team beat Harvard this year in the annual Harvard-Yale game, but didn’t find any bowl invitations in the mail.)And Nikki Haley — the former governor of South Carolina and Mr. DeSantis’s principal rival in the Republican race to supplant Mr. Trump — graduated from Clemson.Alabama’s celebrated head coach, Nick Saban — a longtime friend of Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, as it happens — does have a connection to Mr. DeSantis’s home state: He spent two unremarkable years as the head coach of the Miami Dolphins before leaving for Tuscaloosa in 2007. More