Elections

The racketeering case against Young Thug has been marked by a plodding pace, an avalanche of pretrial defense motions and pressure on lower-level defendants to plead guilty.On its face, the criminal case accusing former President Donald J. Trump and 18 of his allies of conspiring to overturn his 2020 election loss in Georgia has little in common with the other high-profile racketeering case now underway in the same Atlanta courthouse: that of the superstar rapper Young Thug and his associates.But the 15-month-old gang case against Young Thug — which, like the Trump case, is being prosecuted by Fani T. Willis, the Fulton County district attorney — offers glimpses of how State of Georgia v. Donald John Trump et al. may unfold: with a plodding pace, an avalanche of pretrial defense motions, extraordinary security measures, pressure on lower-level defendants to plead guilty, and a fracturing into separate trials, to name a few.Young Thug, whose real name is Jeffery Williams, was indicted in May 2022 along with 27 others under Georgia’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations statute, known as RICO. Like Mr. Trump’s RICO indictment, the charging papers described a corrupt “enterprise” whose members shared common illegal goals.Prosecutors claim that Mr. Williams is a founder of Young Slime Life, or YSL, a criminal street gang whose members were responsible for murders and other violence, drug dealing and property crimes, with the purpose of illegally obtaining “money and property.” (The defendants say YSL is simply a record label.)But the case against Mr. Williams has been whittled to eight defendants, from an initial 28. Some defendants have had their cases severed because they struggled to find lawyers or were fugitives from justice, among other reasons. As is common in big racketeering cases, others have accepted plea deals, making admissions along the way that could help prosecutors in their effort to convict the remaining defendants.After raucous courtroom outbursts from fans and a number of bizarre incidents — including alleged efforts to smuggle drugs into court — security has been ratcheted up, with members of the public and the news media barred from the courtroom.And remarkably, the case has been stuck in the jury selection phase since January, with many potential jurors claiming they would suffer hardships if forced to participate in a trial that was originally estimated to last six to 12 months. On Thursday morning, a young woman — one of more than 2,000 potential jurors to come through the courthouse doors — was grilled about her life, her future plans to pursue medical training and whether serving would present a hardship.Young Thug, whose real name is Jeffery Williams, was indicted in May 2022 along with 27 others under the state’s RICO law.Steve Schaefer/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via A.P.She said it would not. When asked if she knew of Young Thug, she said she did, and that she liked his music — which, she added, would make hearing the case “surreal,” although she also said she could be fair-minded.The YSL indictment is significantly more complex than the Trump case, describing nearly 200 criminal acts as part of a bloody gang war that played out for at least eight years in a city considered to be a hotbed of music industry innovation. The authorities have said that a crosstown rivalry between YSL and a gang called YFN was exacerbated in 2015 with the murder of Donovan Thomas, a behind-the-scenes connector instrumental in several rap careers.In the aftermath of the killing, the authorities say, many in the city picked sides as retaliatory shootings spilled across Atlanta.It is a world far removed from White House meetings and voting software. But experts say the Trump case, with its own famous lead defendant and sprawling nature, could encounter some similar complications.In Mr. Trump’s indictment, prosecutors also outlined a “criminal organization,” made up of power players like Mark Meadows, the former White House chief of staff, and Rudolph W. Giuliani, Mr. Trump’s former personal lawyer, and obscure Trump supporters like Scott Hall, an Atlanta bail bondsman who was charged with helping to carry out a data breach at a rural Georgia elections office.The Trump team’s shared goal, according to the indictment, was “to unlawfully change the outcome” of Georgia’s 2020 presidential election in Mr. Trump’s favor.Ms. Willis, a veteran prosecutor, has said she appreciates the way that RICO indictments allow for the telling of big, broad, easily digestible stories. Both the YSL and Trump indictments paint pictures of multifaceted “organizations,” showing how the defendants are connected and what they are accused of, which are described across dozens of pages as “acts in furtherance of the conspiracy.”These acts include both discernible criminal activity — like murder and aggravated assault in the YSL case and “false statements and writings” and “conspiracy to defraud the state” in the Trump case. But they also include noncriminal “overt acts” meant to further the goal of the conspiracy.Ms. Willis’s office has proposed that the Trump trial begin in March.Amir Hamja/The New York TimesIn the YSL indictment, the “overt acts” include Mr. Williams’s performing rap songs with violent lyrics — a legal strategy that has set off a heated debate about free speech and whether hip-hop, a quintessentially Black art form, is the target of racist scapegoating. Last year, Mr. Williams’s defense team filed a motion seeking to exclude the lyrics from the case, but the judge has yet to rule on it.Chris Timmons, a trial lawyer and former Georgia prosecutor, said he expected a similar free speech fight to erupt, at least in court, over Mr. Trump’s Twitter posts. Mentions of tweets he posted in the months after the 2020 election pepper the 98-page indictment as it describes efforts in Washington to set up bogus pro-Trump electors in Georgia and other states, to cajole legislators in those states to accept them, and to pressure Mike Pence, then the vice president, to throw a wrench in the final Electoral College vote.Some of the tweets in the indictment might seem rather bland in a different context. “Georgia hearings now on @OANN. Amazing!” Mr. Trump tweeted on Dec. 3, 2020 — a month after Election Day — referring to a far-right TV network’s airing of a state legislative hearing in which his supporters made a number of untrue allegations about election fraud.In other instances, Mr. Trump tweeted outright lies about election fraud. “People in Georgia got caught cold bringing in massive numbers of ballots and putting them in ‘voting’ machines,” he posted in December 2020.Mr. Timmons said he expected Mr. Trump’s lawyers to try to throw out his Twitter posts, as well as a recording of a call that the former president made to Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s secretary of state, on free speech grounds.“They’re going to try to suppress the recording of the phone call, and probably try to suppress any tweets that were sent, and any text messages, anything along those lines, as violative of the First Amendment of the United States Constitution,” he said.In another parallel with the YSL case, the Trump case is almost certain to see multiple pretrial motions from a bumper crop of defense lawyers. One defendant, Mr. Meadows, has already filed a motion to move the case to federal court.Both Mr. Trump and Jeffrey Clark, a former Justice Department official who is among the defendants, may also file for removal, which would broaden the jury pool beyond liberal Fulton County into more Trump-friendly areas.Harvey Silverglate, a lawyer representing John Eastman, a defendant in the Trump case charged with helping to plan the bogus elector scheme, said this week that he expected a number of defendants to try to sever their cases.“Bringing in that many defendants and that many counts is an unmanageable criminal case,” he said, referring to the fact that each defendant is charged with racketeering and at least one of 40 other criminal charges.Mr. Silverglate, who said his client was innocent, added, “This is a case that wouldn’t reach trial in two years.”Ms. Willis’s office has proposed that the Trump trial begin in March, but the chances of that happening seem vanishingly slim. Mr. Meadows’s removal effort alone is likely to trigger a federal appeal, a process that could take months to resolve.While dragging out a case can hurt the prosecution, as witnesses forget or even die, the mere prospect of a multiyear legal ordeal can help convince some defendants to take a plea, as probably happened in the YSL case.Mr. Timmons, who tried numerous RICO cases, said that prosecutors often hoped to secure pleas from the lower-level players and work up toward the defendant at the top of the list, who is often the most prominent or powerful among them.“Your goal is to roll that up like a carpet, working at the bottom and working your way to the top,” he said.The Trump case may prove different from the YSL case in that rappers’ careers might survive a guilty plea (unless they are deemed snitches), while lawyers convicted of felonies lose their licenses — and there are numerous lawyers on the Trump indictment. Those lawyers may choose to hang on and fight an epic legal battle with Ms. Willis, a formidable prosecutor who has been trying RICO cases for years.Mr. Trump is running for re-election while facing indictments in Florida, New York and Washington, D.C., as well as in Georgia. If he is concerned about how his legal troubles could affect his popularity, he might find hope in the fact that Mr. Williams released his latest album while in custody, and saw it debut at the top of a Billboard chart this summer. More

A former first lady and an anticorruption candidate are on the ballot in a runoff contest.Guatemala is holding a runoff presidential election on Sunday in which an anticorruption crusader is vying against a former first lady aligned with the country’s conservative political establishment to lead Central America’s most populous nation.The vote comes after a tumultuous first round in June, in which judicial leaders had barred several candidates viewed as threats to the country’s ruling elites.After the insurgent antigraft candidate Bernardo Arévalo unexpectedly advanced to the runoff, the election is emerging as a potential landmark moment in Central America’s largest country, both a leading source of migration to the United States and one of Washington’s longtime allies in the region.Guatemala’s fragile democracy, repeatedly plagued with governments engulfed in scandal, has gone from pioneering anticorruption strategies to shutting down such efforts and forcing judges and prosecutors to flee the country.Here’s what to know about Sunday’s vote.Why is this election important?The disqualifications of several contenders, rather than benefiting the establishment’s preferred candidates, opened a path for the anticorruption campaigner, Mr. Arévalo. His surprise showing in the June vote allowed him to advance to the runoff.Subsequent efforts to prevent him from running by a top prosecutor — whom the United States has placed on a list of corrupt officials — also backfired as they prompted calls from Guatemalan political figures across the ideological spectrum to allow Mr. Arévalo to remain in the race.Still, concerns have emerged that supporters of Sandra Torres, the former first lady running against him, could interfere with the voting, especially in rural areas — a worrisome possibility in a country where efforts to manipulate outcomes have marred previous elections.And while polls suggest that Mr. Arévalo could win in a landslide, the prosecutor, Rafael Curruchiche, in recent days resurrected his attempt to suspend Mr. Arévalo’s party.Citing what the prosecutor described as irregularities in the process of gathering signatures for creating the party, Mr. Curruchiche said that he could suspend the party after Sunday’s election and issue arrest warrants for some of its members.If Mr. Arévalo won, such a move would quickly weaken his ability to govern. He has campaigned against such tactics, casting attention on a judicial offensive that has compelled dozens of anticorruption prosecutors and judges to flee the country.Rafael Curruchiche, a prosecutor the United States has placed on a list of corrupt officials, has threatened to suspend Mr. Arévalo’s party.Johan Ordonez/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesWhat is the broader significance?The Biden administration, along with numerous Latin American governments, has urged Guatemalan officials not to manipulate the election’s outcome.The race has unfolded amid a crackdown by the current conservative administration targeting not only prosecutors and judges, but also nonprofits and journalists like José Rubén Zamora, the publisher of a leading newspaper, who was sentenced in June to up to six years in prison.While Guatemala’s president, the broadly unpopular leader Alejandro Giammattei, is prohibited by law from seeking re-election, concerns over a slide toward authoritarianism have grown more acute as he has expanded his sway over the country’s institutions.Who is Bernardo Arévalo?Bernardo Arévalo, 64, an intellectual, is the son of a Juan José Arévalo, a former president who is still exalted for creating Guatemala’s social security system and protecting free speech. After the former leader was forced into exile in the 1950s, Bernardo Arévalo was born in Uruguay and grew up in Venezuela, Chile and Mexico before returning to Guatemala as a teenager.A moderate who criticizes leftist governments like that of Nicaragua, Mr. Arévalo is nevertheless viewed in Guatemala’s conservative political landscape as the most progressive candidate to get this far since democracy was restored in 1985 after more than three decades of military rule.He has drawn much of his support from cities, and his party largely comprises urban professionals like university professors and engineers.He has made tackling corruption and impunity a centerpiece of his campaign. But he has distanced himself from rivals seeking to emulate a crackdown on gangs by the conservative president of neighboring El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, contending that Guatemala’s security challenges are different in size and scope, with gang activity concentrated in certain parts of the country. Mr. Arévalo is proposing to hire thousands of new police officers and upgrade security at prisons.Mr. Arévalo has vowed to alleviate poverty in Guatemala, one of Latin America’s most unequal countries, through a large job creation program aimed at upgrading roads and other infrastructure. He has also promised to ramp up agricultural production by providing low-interest loans to farmers.William López, 34, a teacher in Guatemala City who works at a call center, said he viewed Mr. Arévalo and his party, Movimiento Semilla (“Seed Movement”), as “an opportunity for profound change, since they’ve shown they don’t have skeletons in their closet.”Mr. Arévalo has made tackling corruption and impunity a centerpiece of his campaign.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesWho is Sandra Torres?Sandra Torres, 67, is the former wife of Álvaro Colom, who was Guatemala’s president from 2008 to 2012 and who died in January at 71. She has repeatedly tried to win the presidency, including an attempt to become his successor: In 2011, she divorced Mr. Colom in an effort to get around a law that prohibits a president’s relatives from running for office.Although she was barred from running in that contest, she was the runner-up in the two most recent presidential elections. After the last one, in 2019, she was detained on charges of illicit campaign financing and spent time under house arrest. But a judge closed the case late last year, opening the way for her to run.On the campaign trail, she has drawn support from her party, National Unity of Hope, which is well established around Guatemala and has many local officials in office.She has expressed admiration for Mr. Bukele, the Salvadoran leader overseeing a crackdown on gangs. She also vowed to bolster food assistance and cash transfers for poor families, building on her time as first lady when she was the face of such popular programs.Ms. Torres is thought to be polling well among rural voters and people working in the informal sector.“I like her proposals to help poor people,” said Magdalena Sag, 30, a saleswoman who attended the closing event for Ms. Torres’s campaign. “Guatemala has a lot of unemployed people who need assistance.”Ms. Torres was the runner-up in the two most recent presidential elections in Guatemala.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesWhat are the main issues?Infrastructure: Outside Guatemala City, the capital, the country is lacking in paved roads and other essential infrastructure. Both candidates have proposed to build thousands of miles of new roads and improve existing ones. Both have also vowed to build Guatemala City’s first subway line.Emigration: Guatemalans figure among the largest groups of migrants to the United States. Various factors fuel the emigration, including low economic opportunity, extortion, corruption among public officials and crime.Crime: Proposals to emulate El Salvador’s crackdown on gangs reflect simmering discontent with levels of violent crime in Guatemala. The number of homicides in Guatemala rose in 2022 for the second consecutive year after a relative lull during the pandemic.When are the results expected?Polls are open from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. Eastern, with results expected within hours of polls closing.Given that neither of the two current candidates secured more than 20 percent of the vote in June, the runoff provides a chance for the winner to obtain a stamp of legitimacy. But the abstention rate, which was nearly 40 percent in the first round, will be closely watched by pro-democracy groups as a sign of broad disenchantment with Guatemala’s political system.The abstention rate on the first round of voting was nearly 40 percent, and neither candidate secured more than the 20 percent of votes needed to avoid a runoff.Daniele Volpe for The New York Times More

In interviews and polling, many Republican voters believe President Biden is so weak that picking the most electable candidate to beat him no longer matters.Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida has run into a surprising buzz saw in his bid to sell himself as the Republican Party’s most electable standard-bearer in 2024 — and it has more to do with President Biden than it does with Donald J. Trump.For months, Republican voters have consumed such a steady diet of clips of Mr. Biden stumbling, over words and sandbags, that they now see the 80-year-old Democratic incumbent as so frail that he would be beatable by practically any Republican — even a four-times-indicted former president who lost the last election.As Mr. Trump’s rivals take the stage for the first debate of the 2024 primaries on Wednesday, the perceived weaknesses of Mr. Biden have undercut one of the core arguments that Mr. DeSantis and others have made from the start: that the party must turn the page on the past and move beyond Mr. Trump in order to win in 2024.The focus on “electability” — the basic notion of which candidate has the best shot of winning a general election — was most intense in the aftermath of the disappointing 2022 midterms. Republicans were stung by losses of Trump-backed candidates in key swing states like Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And the issue offered a way to convince a Republican electorate still very much in the thrall of Mr. Trump to consider throwing its lot in with a fresh face in 2022. It was a permission slip to move on.But nine months later, interviews with pollsters, strategists, elected officials and Republican voters in early-voting states show that the dim Republican opinion of Mr. Biden’s mental faculties and political skills has complicated that case in deep and unexpected ways.“I mean, I would hope anybody could beat Joe Biden at this point,” said Heather Hora, 52, as she waited in line for a photo with Mr. Trump at an Iowa Republican Party dinner, echoing a sentiment expressed in more than 30 interviews with Iowa Republicans in recent weeks.Mr. Trump’s rivals are still pushing an electability case against the former president, but even their advisers and other strategists acknowledge that the diminished views of Mr. Biden have sapped the pressure voters once felt about the need to nominate someone new. When Republican primary voters in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll were asked which candidate was better able to beat Mr. Biden, 58 percent picked Mr. Trump, while 28 percent selected Mr. DeSantis.“The perception that Biden is the weakest possible candidate has lowered the electability question in the calculus of primary voters,” said Josh Holmes, a Republican strategist and a longtime adviser to Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader.Likely Republican voters in Iowa see Donald Trump as “able to beat Joe Biden” more than Mr. DeSantis, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll in the state. Haiyun Jiang for The New York TimesThough the urgency of electability has plainly waned, it remains one of the most powerful tools Mr. Trump’s rivals believe they have to peel the party away from him — and some privately hope that Mr. Trump’s growing legal jeopardy will eventually make the issue feel pressing again. For now, the fact that many polls show a razor-thin Biden-Trump contest has made it a tougher sell.Conservative media, led by Fox News, has played a role in shaping G.O.P. views. Fox has often elevated Mr. DeSantis as the future of the Republican Party, coverage that has frustrated the former president. But the network’s persistent harping on Mr. Biden’s frailties may have inadvertently undercut any effort to build up Mr. DeSantis’s campaign.More than two-thirds of Republicans who described Fox News or another conservative outlet as the single source they most often turned to for news thought Mr. Trump was better able to beat Mr. Biden in the Times/Siena College poll, a 40-point advantage over Mr. DeSantis. Those who cited mainstream news outlets also said Mr. Trump was the stronger candidate to beat Mr. Biden, though by less than half the margin.There is little question that Mr. Biden has visibly aged. The president’s slip onstage at an Air Force graduation ceremony in June — his staff subsequently blamed a stray sandbag — is seen as a moment that particularly resonated for Republicans, cementing Mr. Biden’s image as frail, politically and otherwise.Google records show search interest for “Biden old” peaking three times in 2023 — during his State of the Union address in February, when he announced his 2024 run in late April and when he fell onstage in June. The number of searches just for “Biden” was higher after his fall than it was around the time of his re-election kickoff.Interviews with Republican voters in Iowa in recent weeks have revealed a consistent impression of Mr. Biden as weak and deteriorating.“It’s just one gaffe after another,” Joanie Pellett, 55, a retiree in Decatur County, said of Mr. Biden as she settled into her seat in a beer hall at the Iowa State Fair four hours before Mr. Trump was set to speak.“What strength as a candidate? Does he have any?” Rick Danowsky, a financial consultant who lives in Sigourney, Iowa, asked of Mr. Biden as he waited for Mr. DeSantis at a bar in downtown Des Moines earlier this month.“He’s a train wreck,” said Jack Seward, 67, a county supervisor in Washington County, Iowa, who is considering whether to vote for Mr. Trump or Mr. DeSantis.Kevin Munoz, a campaign spokesman for Mr. Biden, said Republican depictions of Mr. Biden as old were “recycled attacks” that had “repeatedly failed.”“Put simply, it’s a losing strategy and they know it,” he said. “Republicans can argue with each other all they want about electability, but every one of them has embraced the losing MAGA agenda.”Some Republicans worry that their voters have been lulled into a false sense of complacency about the challenge of beating a Democratic incumbent president. The last one to lose was Jimmy Carter more than four decades ago.“Electability is more than just beating Biden — Republicans need to choose a candidate who can build a majority coalition, especially with independents, to win both the House and Senate,” said Dave Winston, a Republican pollster.There were always structural challenges to running a primary campaign centered on electability. For more than a decade, Republican voters have tended to care little about which candidate political insiders have deemed to have the best shot at winning — and have tended to revolt against the preferences of the reviled party establishment.Then there are the hurdles specific to Mr. Trump, who was portrayed as unelectable before he won in 2016, and whose 2020 loss has not been accepted by many in the party.In a sign of how far electability has diminished, Republican voters today say they are more likely to support a candidate who agrees with them most on the issues over someone with the best chance to beat Mr. Biden, according to the Times/Siena College poll. They are prioritizing, in other words, policy positions over electability.Mr. DeSantis has sharpened his own electability argument heading into the first debate, calling out Mr. Trump by name. “There’s nothing that the Democratic Party would like better than to relitigate all these things with Donald Trump,” Mr. DeSantis said in a recent radio interview. “That is a loser for us going forward as a party.”The picture is brighter for Mr. DeSantis in Iowa, according to public polling and voter interviews, and that is where he is increasingly banking his candidacy. More than $3.5 million in television ads have aired from one anti-Trump group, Win it Back PAC. Those ads are explicitly aimed at undermining perceptions of Mr. Trump with voter testimonials of nervous former Trump supporters.“For 2024, Trump is not the most electable candidate,” one said in a recent ad. “I don’t know if we can get him elected,” said another.Likely Republican voters in Iowa see Mr. Trump as “able to beat Joe Biden” more than Mr. DeSantis despite that advertising onslaught, according to a separate Times/Siena College Iowa poll. But the margin is far smaller than in the national poll, and a larger share of Iowa Republicans say they would prioritize a candidate who could win.Mr. DeSantis’s improved standing in the state when it comes to electability is heavily shaped by the views of college-educated Republicans. Among that group, Mr. DeSantis is seen as better able to beat Mr. Biden by a 14-point margin compared with Mr. Trump.Republican voters say they are more likely to support a candidate who agrees with them most on the issues over someone with the best chance to beat Mr. Biden — a sign of how far electability has diminished.Pete Marovich for The New York TimesMr. DeSantis faces his own electability headwinds. Some of those same party insiders who are worried about Mr. Trump topping the ticket have expressed concerns that the hard-line stances the governor has taken — especially signing a six-week abortion ban — could repel independent voters.Mr. Danowsky, the financial consultant who was at the bar in downtown Des Moines, worried that Mr. DeSantis was “a little extreme,” including on transgender rights.But more Iowa Republicans volunteered concerns about Mr. Trump’s viability as the top reason to move on from him, even as they saw Mr. Biden as weak.“I might be one out of 1,000, but I don’t think he can beat Biden,” Mike Farwell, 66, a retired construction worker in Indianola, said of Mr. Trump. He added that Mr. Biden “would be an easy president right now to beat” if he faced a strong enough opponent.Don Beebout, 74, a retiree who lives in Sheraton and manages a farm, was worried about Mr. Trump as the party nominee as he waited to hear Mr. DeSantis speak at the state fair. But he also was not sold on any particular alternative.“He may be easy to beat,” he said of Mr. Biden, “if we get the right candidate.”Maggie Haberman More

Mr. DeSantis, the Republican governor and presidential candidate, leaned heavily on his Ivy League schooling before using it as fodder in the culture wars. Here are key findings from a Times examination.As Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida seeks the Republican presidential nomination, he has molded his campaign and political persona around a war on the country’s supposed ruling class: an incompetent, unaccountable elite of bureaucrats, journalists, educators and other “experts” whose pernicious and unearned authority the governor has vowed to vanquish. Despite his struggles on the campaign trail, Mr. DeSantis has become captain of a new conservative vanguard that views public schools and universities as the chief battleground of the culture wars — and his Florida education policies as a model for red states around the nation.Yet Mr. DeSantis is both a member of the ruling class and a critic of it. Educated at Yale and Harvard Law, he spent his early adulthood energetically climbing into the American elite. An examination by The New York Times reveals how Mr. DeSantis, genuinely embittered by his experiences at elite institutions, also astutely grasped how they could be useful to him. He now offers voters a revisionist history of his own encounters with the ruling class to buttress his arguments for razing it — and for remaking public education itself.Here are five takeaways from the Times article.He reaped the benefits of an elite education.On the campaign trail, Mr. DeSantis often describes his years at Yale and Harvard Law as a period behind enemy lines, painting both institutions as places where students and teachers were anti-American. But his overall experience was more mixed than he acknowledges.At Yale, he joined St. Elmo, one of the school’s “secret societies,” long known as breeding grounds of future senators and presidents. Though he says Harvard was gripped by left-wing “critical legal studies,” the doctrine was long on the wane by the time he arrived, and the school provided entree to the power brokers of the conservative Federalist Society.When he went into politics, his elite résumé helped him court wealthy donors, raise money and garner introductions to prominent Republicans. As he acknowledged in a panel discussion back in Cambridge, Mass., shortly before he first ran for governor, “Harvard opens a lot of doors” for aspiring politicians.His fraternity brothers recalled hazing rituals and an early comfort with power.Echoing Mr. DeSantis’s own account of culture shock at Yale, former classmates recounted the future governor, who hailed from the middle-class, suburban Gulf Coast city of Dunedin, as bewildered and soon alienated by the more cosmopolitan, diverse Yale campus.He found his tribe on the baseball team and in the Delta Kappa Epsilon fraternity, where he participated in the frat’s brutal hazing rituals — an early illustration, in the view of some former frat brothers, of his comfort with power and bullying.On one occasion, Mr. DeSantis and other brothers played a prank that involved turning on a blender between the legs of a blindfolded pledge. During the frat’s wintertime “hell week,” Mr. DeSantis required a pledge to wear a pair of baseball pants with the back and thighs cut out, exposing his buttocks and genitals, former brothers and pledges said. Mr. DeSantis denied these accounts through his spokesman, who called them “ridiculous assertions and completely false.”He was a latecomer to the culture wars.Mr. DeSantis is now indelibly associated with policies that take on what he considers left-wing ideology in Florida’s public schools and universities: his takeover of the liberal arts school New College; efforts that make it easier for parents to challenge books available in elementary and high schools; a law prohibiting classroom discussions of sexual orientation and gender identity that are not viewed as “age appropriate”; and bans against teaching ideas like “systemic racism” in core classes at public universities.Yet his emergence as his party’s chief culture warrior was anything but preordained, The Times found. For much of his political career, including his early years as Florida governor, he was neither closely identified with education policy nor deeply engaged in the debates over race and gender. (When a Florida lawmaker first proposed abolishing New College entirely, Mr. DeSantis replied, “What is New College?”)It took the coronavirus pandemic — and the intertwined backlashes against mask mandates, school lockdowns and the spread of “anti-racist” and “equity” curriculums — to both awaken Mr. DeSantis to the political power of education issues and cement his suspicions of academic and scientific experts.He’s found common cause with a new crop of conservative academics.As he battled against critical race theory and bureaucratic elites, Mr. DeSantis became entwined with a rising movement of conservative academics and activists outside Florida, notably at Hillsdale College in Michigan and the Claremont Institute in California.At a recent donor retreat, Mr. DeSantis featured a Claremont panel intended to “define the ‘Regime’ which illegitimately rules us” and lay out a strategy to “make states more autonomous from the woke regime by ridding themselves of leftist interests,” according to planning emails obtained by The Times.In a report calling for Florida to abolish diversity programs, one of the experts — who argued in a 2021 speech that feminism makes women “more medicated, meddlesome and quarrelsome” — urged Mr. DeSantis to “order civil rights investigations of all university units in which women vastly outnumber men” and root out “any anti-male elements of curriculum.”His policies have changed course on academic freedom.In Florida, Mr. DeSantis has turned sharply away from an earlier commitment to academic freedom. Even as he calls to dismantle “woke” orthodoxy, he has imposed another, with a sweeping ban on the teaching of “identity politics” in required classes at Florida’s public colleges and universities. In the name of “parental rights,” DeSantis-backed policies have given conservative Floridians a veto over books and curriculums favored by their more liberal neighbors.One DeSantis appointee, the conservative activist Chris Rufo, has argued that “the goal of the university is not free inquiry.” In court, lawyers for the DeSantis administration have argued that the concept of academic freedom does not apply to public university teachers, whose instruction is merely “government speech,” controllable by duly elected officials. More

The strong desire of Mr. Trump’s advisers to see him debate Mr. Biden in the event of a rematch could lead to a clash with the Republican National Committee.On July 17, the head of the Republican Party traveled to Donald J. Trump’s private club and home in Bedminster, N.J., to make a personal pitch for him to join in the party’s first sanctioned debate of the presidential nominating contest.One of the arguments that the Republican National Committee chairwoman, Ronna McDaniel, made to Mr. Trump that day was that by skipping the debate, he would give President Biden an excuse to get out of debating Mr. Trump should they meet again in 2024, according to two people familiar with their conversation.Mr. Trump apparently disregarded the warning: He told people close to him in recent days that he had made up his mind not to participate in the first debate, though he has not ruled out debates later in the year. Instead, he sat for a taped interview with Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host, which is expected to be posted online Wednesday.Still, it’s an argument that appealed to a key focus of the Trump campaign as it looks ahead to a possible rematch with Mr. Biden: getting both men onstage. Mr. Trump has repeatedly said publicly that he wants debates with Mr. Biden, and Mr. Trump’s advisers view face-offs with the incumbent president as vital to Mr. Trump’s chances of winning.It is unusually early to begin considering the contours of a general election debate, with months still to go until the Iowa caucuses and not a single vote cast in a primary race so far defined by Mr. Trump’s four criminal indictments. But with both parties heading in the direction of renominating the same candidates as in 2020 — Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump — some thinking has already gone into potential matchups, at least on the Trump side.The strong desire of Mr. Trump and his advisers to see him debate Mr. Biden may lead to Mr. Trump undercutting work by the R.N.C., which has spent the last two years searching for an alternative to the Commission on Presidential Debates for hosting general election matchups. Every presidential race since 1976 has had at least two televised debates, and the C.P.D., which is run by members of both parties, has overseen the process for every election since 1988.The Republican Party sought to end that streak after 2020. But people with knowledge of the matter said that Mr. Trump is open to returning to a C.P.D. debate if that format is the only way he can ensure a debate against Mr. Biden.One Republican strategist with knowledge of the Trump team’s thinking, who was granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to disclose private conversations, put it bluntly: The party committee “will not control the party nominee’s debate strategy in the general election.”But the party is trying to do just that. The “beat Biden pledge” that the R.N.C. is requiring candidates to sign to participate in primary debates also stipulates that they agree to participate only in R.N.C.-sanctioned general election debates. Mr. Trump has not yet signed it because he has not agreed to attend a primary debate.The Republican strategist added that “the end goal is as many debates as possible between Donald Trump and Joe Biden,” and that the Trump campaign would do whatever was necessary to achieve that goal.A senior Biden official, who was granted anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said that there have been no senior-level staff meetings about debates yet, nor any discussions with the president himself.But people in Mr. Biden’s orbit had their own frustrations with the C.P.D. in 2020, in particular its handling of Covid protocols. The belated revelation that Mr. Trump had at least once tested positive for the virus just days before participating in the first debate only deepened their concern.A Trump spokesman and an R.N.C. spokesman did not respond to requests for comment.Since 2021, the R.N.C. has been pushing the C.P.D. for changes to how the debates are held. And, over the past year, it has actively looked for a non-C.P.D. debate host.But the debates are negotiated between the nominees’ campaigns and the commission, meaning the decision to participate is ultimately up to the nominee, and that the R.N.C. cannot force his or her hand.In the past, candidates have skipped primary debates. And Mr. Biden, like other incumbents dating back to Gerald Ford, is declining primary debates. But there’s little precedent in modern history for an incumbent president skipping general election debates, save for Jimmy Carter.There have been no discussions between the C.P.D. and any of the campaigns as of yet, according to the commission.“The C.P.D. starts discussions with the campaigns only after the nominating process has concluded,” Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr., the C.P.D. co-chairman and a former chairman of the R.N.C., said in a statement.The group is expected to reveal the locations, dates and criteria for the general election debates in October. Typically, the C.P.D. hosts three sanctioned debates after both nominees have been selected at the party conventions.Issues with the commission predate 2020, as its monopoly on general election debates has for years been a source of frustration for nominees from both parties. That is especially true for Republicans, who have complained bitterly since the 2012 presidential cycle about one of the moderators, Candy Crowley, then of CNN, fact-checking the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, in real time during a debate with the incumbent president, Barack Obama.In 2020, Mr. Trump’s team was enraged that the then-Fox News host Chris Wallace, whose coverage Mr. Trump often railed against, served as the moderator for the first C.P.D. debate. When the C.P.D. announced that the second debate would be virtual, the Trump team was apoplectic, and Mr. Trump announced he would not participate. Mr. Biden followed suit.The decision to conduct the second debate virtually came after Mr. Trump appeared to be under the weather at the first debate on Sept. 29, 2020, then posted on Twitter less than 72 hours later that he had tested positive for Covid.Since then, Mr. Trump’s former White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, has published a memoir about his tenure, in which he states that Mr. Trump had a positive Covid test three days before the debate, followed by a negative one. The assertion raised questions about when Mr. Trump’s team knew he was sick and whether it was kept from the C.P.D. so that Mr. Trump did not have to cancel his appearance.In addition, Mr. Biden’s team was angered — and complained to the C.P.D. afterward — when several members of the Trump family, except for first lady Melania Trump, removed the masks they were required to wear to be in the audience as they sat in the front row for that first matchup.The senior Biden official said that the Biden team felt a lot of people were put at risk at the time, and that it was likely that the president’s campaign would press for its own specific rules. One possibility that could be raised would be conducting the debate without a live audience, given what happened recently when CNN hosted a New Hampshire primary town hall-style event with Mr. Trump. The former president fed on the laughter and applause from a cheering audience as he tried to dominate during his 70 minutes of prime time.The official did not say whether Mr. Biden, an institutionalist who has typically been averse to breaking with tradition, would be inclined to skip a debate.A spokesman for Mr. Biden declined to comment.The sense that Mr. Trump could open himself up to the possibility of Mr. Biden choosing not to debate because Mr. Trump chose to skip at least one primary face-off has been underscored in recent days by Republicans with rival campaigns.After The New York Times reported on Friday that Mr. Trump had told aides he would not join next week’s event, Christina Pushaw, an aide to Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, highlighted a post on X, the site formerly known as Twitter, that Mr. Trump’s adviser Jason Miller had written in August 2020 about Mr. Biden: “If Joe Biden is too scared to debate, he’s too scared to run the country.”Mr. Trump and his advisers believe that debating his primary rivals at this point does little for him politically, given how far ahead he is in primary polls. However, national polls show that he would have a tight race against Mr. Biden, and aides think Mr. Trump can draw a favorable contrast to the president.David Axelrod, who was a top adviser to former President Barack Obama during both of his presidential campaigns, said that the challenge for Mr. Biden’s team is that even if the two camps agree on debate criteria, Mr. Trump refuses to follow rules.“I think the fact that Trump is utterly irresponsible and turns every event into a circus and a platform for disseminating disinformation is the basis for saying: This isn’t worthwhile,” Mr. Axelrod said.He explained that Mr. Trump’s belief that the debates could bolster him may be misguided, pointing to the Sept. 29, 2020, debate, in which Mr. Trump was widely panned as having been too aggressive.“He doesn’t necessarily help himself, either,” Mr. Axelrod said. “That first debate really hurt last time.”But Mr. Axelrod said that the notion that Mr. Biden could use Mr. Trump’s avoidance of debates as a reason to avoid them himself was a “valid” question, noting that “whether you feel in a close race you could get away with that — and whether the public would accept it — is another question.” More

With the country’s attention riveted on violence perpetrated by gangs and drug cartels, the security issue is paramount — and may be decisive.Presidential elections will be held in Ecuador on Sunday at a tumultuous moment for the country. President Guillermo Lasso called snap elections in May amid impeachment proceedings against him over accusations of embezzlement. This month, the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated on the campaign trail.All this has unfolded as foreign drug mafias have joined forces with local prison and street gangs to unleash a wave of violence unlike anything in the country’s recent history, sending homicide rates to record levels and making security the leading issue for most voters.Here’s what you need to know about the upcoming vote.Why are there early elections?Mr. Lasso disbanded the country’s opposition-led legislature in May, using, for the first time, a constitutional measure that allows the president to rule by decree until new presidential and congressional elections can be held. The impeachment proceedings were permanently halted once Mr. Lasso dissolved congress.The move came amid a moment of extraordinary political turbulence for Ecuador, a country of 18 million on South America’s western edge. But it provided temporary stability by allowing the president to bypass the deadlocked legislature and appease voters hungry for new leadership and action against the rise in street crime and drug and gang violence.Candidates can win outright by taking 50 percent of the total vote or 40 percent along with a 10 percentage point lead over the runner-up. Failing that, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff election on Oct. 15.The new president will hold office until May 2025.The votes will be cast and counted using blockchain technology to avoid voter fraud, according to the Ecuadorean electoral council, a first in Latin America.A campaign poster for Fernando Villavicencio held by supporters on the day after his assassination this month.Johanna Alarcón for The New York TimesWho is Fernando Villavicencio and why was he assassinated?The campaign for Sunday’s elections was convulsed on Aug. 9, when Mr. Villavicencio was fatally shot at a campaign event. Six Colombians have been arrested in connection with the brazen killing, but it remains unclear who, if anyone, hired them.Mr. Villavicencio was a legislator, former investigative journalist and anti-corruption activist. While he was not a top contender, polling near the middle of an eight-person race, he had a long history in Ecuadorean public affairs, largely as an antagonist to those in power.He played a crucial role in exposing a bribery scandal that eventually led to the conviction of a former president, Rafael Correa. Some of his work led to death threats.He had been outspoken about the link between organized crime and the political establishment, which earned him enemies. The attack in broad daylight was a traumatizing event for an election that has been dominated by concerns over drug-related violence.A supporter of the presidential candidate Luisa González this month in Quito. She had been considered a front-runner, but polls suggest she may be losing some ground.Johanna Alarcon for The New York TimesWho are the main candidates?The candidate leading in the polls is Luisa González, backed by the powerful party of the former president, Mr. Correa, who governed from 2007 to 2017. During his presidency, a commodities boom helped lift millions out of poverty, but Mr. Correa’s authoritarian style and accusations of corruption deeply divided the country.“We’re seeing a lot of voter nostalgia for the security situation and the economic situation while he was in power, which seems to be propelling her candidacy,” said Risa Grais-Targow, the Latin America director for Eurasia Group. “The rest of the field is in a really tight battle for second place.”That would include Otto Sonnenholzner, a former vice president, and an Indigenous activist, Yaku Pérez, who has been campaigning on environmental issues.“Otto is trying to position himself as a more kind of centrist newcomer,” said Ms. Grais-Targow, but to many voters he represents “policy continuity from Lasso.”As for Mr. Pérez, his focus on the environment and corruptions are not the main voter concerns, she said.Christian Zurita, Mr. Villavicencio’s longtime investigative partner and close friend, has replaced him as his party’s pick, but he is regarded as a long shot.Yaku Pérez, an Indigenous activist who has been campaigning on environmental issues, riding a bamboo bicycle during a campaign event. Johanna Alarcon for The New York TimesHow has the assassination changed the election dynamic?While security was always going to be a top issue, now “this election will be largely about the issue of safety,” said Paolo Moncagatta, a political analyst based in Quito, the capital.Experts predict that this could elevate the fortunes of a previously obscure candidate, Jan Topic, a 40-year-old businessman and former soldier in the French Foreign Legion who is emphasizing a tough stance on crime.He has echoed the promises of El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, whose hard-line approach to gangs has significantly reduced violence rates, though his aggressive tactics have raised concerns from human rights watchdogs.Polls in Ecuador tend to be unreliable, but the latest numbers suggest that Ms. González’s lead is shrinking, and a recent surge by Mr. Topic has him neck and neck with Mr. Sonnenholzner for second place.Germán Martínez, a coroner who works at the morgue where Mr. Villavicencio’s body lay last week, said that after the killing he had decided to switch his vote to Mr. Topic.“This can’t keep happening here in the country,’’ he said. “We are looking for someone who will confront all this with an iron fist.”Many of Mr. Villavicencio’s supporters blame his killing on his political enemy, Mr. Correa. There is no evidence that Mr. Correa or his party, Citizen Revolution Movement, was involved in the assassination, but experts say the fallout could nevertheless hurt Ms. González in the elections.Analysts caution that rather than driving voters to the polls, increased safety concerns could just as easily persuade them to stay home, despite a mandatory voting law that imposes fines for absenteeism.“Voting is scary,” said Ana Vera, 44, a housekeeper in Quito.Worries over security deepened in the past week when shootings were reported near appearances by candidates. In one case on Thursday, a shooting occurred in Durán, near where Daniel Noboa, a presidential candidate, was holding an event. The authorities said he was not a target.And on Saturday a shooting occurred outside a restaurant in Guayaquil, where Mr. Sonnenholzner was eating, though, the authorities said that in this case, too, he was not a target.The presidential candidate Otto Sonnenholzner, a former vice president, this month in Quito.Johanna Alarcon for The New York TimesWhat is at stake in this election?Ecuador was once a tranquil haven compared with its neighbor Colombia, for decades torn by violence among armed guerrilla and paramilitary groups and drug cartels. That all changed in the past few years as Colombia forged a peace deal, and Ecuador became dominated by an increasingly powerful narco-trafficking industry.Amid news reports regularly featuring beheadings, car bombs, police assassinations, young men hanging from bridges and children gunned down outside their homes or schools, Ecuadoreans are hoping for new leadership that can restore the peaceful existence they once took for granted.Jenny Goya, 29, was in taxicab in downtown Guayaquil, the country’s largest city, recently when the driver suddenly took a detour. Two armed men got into the vehicle, stole her belongings and emptied her bank accounts. After holding her for two hours, they left her on the street.“I had always felt quite safe on the street despite the crime, but now I avoid going out as much as possible,” said Ms. Goya, a university administrator. “I also started to feel unsafe in enclosed spaces.”“I started to feel that no space was safe,” she added.Thalíe Ponce contributed reporting. More

La atención del país está centrada en la violencia perpetrada por bandas y carteles de la droga, por lo que los temas de seguridad son primordiales y pueden ser decisivos en los comicios.El domingo se celebran elecciones presidenciales en Ecuador durante un momento tumultuoso para el país. En mayo, el presidente Guillermo Lasso convocó elecciones anticipadas en medio de un proceso de destitución contra él por acusaciones de malversación de fondos. La semana pasada, el candidato presidencial Fernando Villavicencio fue asesinado durante la campaña electoral.Todo esto ha sucedido mientras las mafias de la droga extranjeras han unido sus fuerzas a las de las prisiones locales y las bandas callejeras para desatar una ola de violencia sin precedentes en la historia ecuatoriana reciente, elevando las tasas de homicidio a niveles récord y convirtiendo la seguridad en el principal problema para la mayoría de los votantes.Esto es lo que debes saber sobre las próximas elecciones.¿Por qué hay elecciones anticipadas?En mayo, Lasso disolvió la Asamblea Nacional, liderada por la oposición, haciendo uso, por primera vez, de una medida constitucional que permite al presidente gobernar por decreto hasta que puedan celebrarse nuevas elecciones presidenciales y legislativas. El proceso de destitución se detuvo definitivamente cuando Lasso disolvió el ente legislativo.La medida se adoptó en un momento de extraordinaria turbulencia política en este país de 18 millones de habitantes situado en el extremo occidental de Sudamérica. Pero proporcionó una estabilidad temporal al permitir que el presidente eludiera el estancamiento de la legislatura y apaciguara a los votantes que buscan un nuevo liderazgo y medidas contra el aumento de la delincuencia en las calles y la violencia de las drogas y las bandas.Los candidatos pueden ganar directamente si obtienen el 50 por ciento del total de los votos o el 40 por ciento junto con una ventaja de 10 puntos porcentuales sobre el segundo. En caso contrario, los dos candidatos más votados competirán en una segunda vuelta el 15 de octubre.El nuevo presidente ocupará el cargo hasta mayo de 2025.Los votos serán emitidos y contabilizados utilizando tecnología blockchain para evitar el fraude electoral, según el Consejo Nacional Electoral ecuatoriano, una novedad en América Latina.Afiche de la campaña de Fernando Villavicencio sostenido por simpatizantes el día después de su asesinato este mes.Johanna Alarcón para The New York Times¿Quién es Fernando Villavicencio y por qué fue asesinado?La campaña para las elecciones del domingo se vio convulsionada el 9 de agosto, cuando Villavicencio recibió disparos en un acto de campaña. Se ha detenido a seis colombianos en relación con el impactante asesinato, pero sigue sin estar claro quién los contrató, si es que alguien lo hizo.Villavicencio era asambleísta, experiodista de investigación y activista contra la corrupción. Aunque no era uno de los principales contendientes, porque se encontraba en la parte media de las preferencias en una contienda de ocho aspirantes, tenía una larga trayectoria en los asuntos públicos ecuatorianos, en gran parte como antagonista de los que estaban en el poder.Desempeñó un papel crucial en la denuncia de un escándalo de sobornos que derivó en la condena del expresidente Rafael Correa. Algunos de sus trabajos le valieron amenazas de muerte.Su denuncia de los vínculos entre el crimen organizado y la clase política le granjeó enemigos. El atentado fue un acontecimiento traumático en unas elecciones que han estado dominadas por la preocupación por la violencia relacionada con el narcotráfico.Una persona llevando una camiseta con el rostro de la candidata presidencial Luisa González este mes en Quito. Se le había considerado una de las contendientes favoritas, pero las encuestas sugieren que podría estar perdiendo terreno.Johanna Alarcon para The New York Times¿Quiénes son los principales candidatos?La candidata que lidera las encuestas es Luisa González, respaldada por el poderoso partido del expresidente Correa, quien gobernó de 2007 a 2017. Durante su presidencia, un auge de las materias primas ayudó a sacar a millones de personas de la pobreza, pero el estilo autoritario de Correa y las acusaciones de corrupción dividieron profundamente al país.“Estamos viendo mucha nostalgia de los votantes por la situación de seguridad y la situación económica mientras él estaba en el poder, lo que parece estar impulsando su candidatura”, dijo Risa Grais-Targow, directora para América Latina de Eurasia Group. “El resto de los candidatos está en una batalla muy reñida por el segundo puesto”.Eso incluiría a Otto Sonnenholzner, exvicepresidente, y a un activista indígena, Yaku Pérez, quien ha estado haciendo campaña en temas ambientales.“Otto intenta posicionarse como una especie de centrista recién llegado”, dijo Grais-Targow, pero para muchos votantes representa “la continuidad política de Lasso”.En cuanto a Pérez, su enfoque en el medioambiente y la corrupción no son las principales preocupaciones de los votantes, dijo.Christian Zurita, colega de investigación y amigo cercano de Villavicencio desde hace mucho tiempo, lo ha sustituido como candidato de su partido, pero es visto como una posibilidad remota.Yaku Pérez, un activista indígena que ha estado haciendo campaña sobre temas ambientales, montando una bicicleta de bambú durante un evento de campaña.Johanna Alarcon para The New York Times¿El asesinato ha cambiado la dinámica electoral?Aunque la seguridad siempre iba a ser un tema prioritario, “esta elección tendrá mucho que ver con el tema de la seguridad”, dijo Paolo Moncagatta, analista político radicado en Quito.Los expertos predicen que esto podría mejorar las posibilidades de Jan Topic, un candidato hasta ahora poco conocido que es un empresario de 40 años y exsoldado de la Legión Extranjera francesa que se centra en implementar una postura dura contra la delincuencia.Se ha hecho eco de las promesas del presidente de El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, cuya línea dura con las bandas ha reducido significativamente los índices de violencia, aunque sus tácticas agresivas han suscitado la preocupación de los organismos que monitorean los derechos humanos.Las encuestas en Ecuador suelen ser poco fiables, pero las últimas cifras sugieren que la ventaja de González se está reduciendo, y un reciente repunte de Topic lo ha puesto a competir con Sonnenholzner por el segundo lugar.Germán Martínez, forense que trabaja en la morgue donde yacía el cuerpo de Villavicencio la semana pasada, dijo que tras el asesinato había decidido cambiar su voto para apoyar a Topic.“Esto no puede seguir sucediendo aquí en el país”, dijo. “Buscamos alguien que enfrente todo esto con mano dura”.Muchos de los partidarios de Villavicencio culpan de su asesinato a su enemigo político, Correa. No hay pruebas de que Correa o su partido, el Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana, estuvieran implicados en el asesinato, pero los expertos afirman que las consecuencias podrían perjudicar a González en las elecciones.Los analistas advierten que, en vez de impulsar a los votantes a acudir a las urnas, el aumento de la preocupación por la seguridad podría convencerlos de quedarse en casa, a pesar de la ley de voto obligatorio que impone multas por absentismo.“Las votaciones dan miedo”, dijo Ana Vera, de 44 años, ama de casa en Quito, la capital.Las preocupaciones sobre la seguridad se intensificaron esta semana cuando se informó de disparos cerca de donde estaban unos candidatos. El jueves, ocurrió un tiroteo en Durán, cerca de donde Daniel Noboa, candidato presidencial, realizaba un evento. Las autoridades dijeron que no era un objetivo.Y el sábado ocurrió una balacera afuera de un restaurante en Guayaquil, donde Sonnenholzner estaba comiendo, aunque las autoridades afirmaron que el candidato tampoco era un objetivo.El candidato presidencial Otto Sonnenholzner, exvicepresidente, este mes en Quito.Johanna Alarcon para The New York Times¿Qué está en juego en estas elecciones?Ecuador fue un remanso de tranquilidad en comparación con Colombia, el país vecino que durante décadas sufrió la violencia de grupos armados guerrilleros, paramilitares y carteles de la droga. Todo eso cambió en los últimos años, cuando Colombia forjó un acuerdo de paz y Ecuador se ha visto dominado por una industria del narcotráfico cada vez más poderosa.Debido a las noticias recurrentes de decapitaciones, coches bomba, asesinatos de policías, jóvenes colgados de puentes y niños que reciben disparos en las puertas de sus casas o escuelas, los ecuatorianos esperan un nuevo liderazgo que les devuelva esa existencia pacífica a la que estaban acostumbrados.Jenny Goya, de 29 años, viajaba hace poco en un taxi por el centro de Guayaquil, la ciudad más grande del país, cuando el conductor se desvió de repente. Dos hombres armados subieron al vehículo, le robaron sus pertenencias y vaciaron sus cuentas bancarias. Tras retenerla durante dos horas, la dejaron en la calle.“Siempre me había sentido bastante segura en la calle a pesar de la delincuencia, pero ahora evito salir lo más que puedo”, dijo Goya, administradora universitaria. “También empecé a sentirme insegura en espacios cerrados”.“Los siguientes meses empecé a sentir que ningún espacio era seguro”, añadió.Thalíe Ponce colaboró con información. More

Although the Republican front-runner was absent at a conservative conference where other candidates were in attendance, he was still top of mind.The two-day Republican gathering in Atlanta was supposed to be something of a Trump-free zone.The host, the conservative commentator Erick Erickson, did not include former President Donald J. Trump in the confab, and instead conducted 45-minute “fireside chat” interviews with six of his rivals for the Republican nomination. He told the crowd on Friday that Mr. Trump, and the criminal indictment handed down against him on Monday just 10 miles away, would not be a topic of discussion.“We’ve got six presidential candidates — two governors, two senators, two members of Congress,” said Mr. Erickson, who is based in Georgia. “I want to ask them about policy questions.”But even as the featured politicians tried to make their own cases without mentioning the former president, also the party’s current front-runner for 2024, his influence — and stranglehold over the Republican primary race — was palpable.Former Vice President Mike Pence sidestepped a question about how he would close the polling gap with Mr. Trump. Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina who served as United Nations ambassador under Mr. Trump, thinly complimented the former president even as she explained why she was running against her former boss. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Mr. Trump’s closest rival, said he hoped that the party would focus more on the future than “some of the other static that is out there.”On and offstage, participants and attendees alike said they believed that defeating President Biden would not be possible as long as the party repeated Mr. Trump’s assertions that the 2020 election was stolen.Georgia will play a pivotal role in the outcome of the general election, both because of recent election outcomes and because the state has the jurisdiction in the most recent Trump indictment. It’s why current and former state officials have been vocal about their belief that having Mr. Trump at the top of the ticket risks delivering a message that is more focused on 2020 election denialism than policy — one that could hurt their chances of winning in the key battleground state.“It should be such an easy path for us to win the White House back,” said Gov. Brian Kemp, one of the few figures who was asked about and who directly addressed Mr. Trump. “We have to be focused on the future, not something that happened three years ago.”Mr. Trump is expected to skip the first Republican debate next week and post an interview with the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that night instead. He still has a solid, double-digit lead over his rivals, according to recent state and national polls. At the weekend event, themed “Forward: Which Way,” attendees saw a chance to hear voices other than Mr. Trump’s. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who is in single digits in most national polls, vowed to give governors more power in federal decisions and stayed true to his positive, faith-based message. Mr. DeSantis gave highlights from his family’s recent campaign trip to the Iowa State Fair while emphasizing the policies he has passed in Florida. Vivek Ramaswamy, the entrepreneur and author who has received attention recently from voters and rivals alike, spoke of a “revolution” in changing how the federal government operates.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, Mr. Trump’s most vocal critic, largely avoided mention of the former president but later railed against him to reporters outside the event, calling him “a coward” for not joining the debate on Wednesday, adding, “He’s afraid of me, and he’s afraid of defending his record.”While many in the crowd expressed frustration over Mr. Trump’s legal troubles, they also said that Monday’s indictment was little more than a politically motivated sideshow that distracted from larger policy issues.Electing a candidate who can defeat Mr. Biden in the general election remained their chief objective — one that many attendees said would be challenging if Mr. Trump’s campaign message focused more on his 2020 grievances instead of policy.“Honestly, we need a new generation,” said Lyn Murphy, a Republican activist who attended Friday’s gathering. “We’ve got a great bench.”Bill Coons, 58, who identified himself as a political independent who voted for a third-party candidate in 2016 and supported Mr. Trump in 2020, said he probably would not support Mr. Trump if he became the party’s nominee.“Why talk about the past when you’ve got a future to move towards?” he said. “The future of this nation is dire if Biden is re-elected, in my opinion.”Although Georgia has long been a Republican stronghold, voters there chose Mr. Biden in 2020, making him the first Democrat in nearly 30 years to win the state. It also sent Democrats to the U.S. Senate in two 2021 runoff races, and re-elected Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, in 2022 for a full term. When asked about her role in the Trump administration, Ms. Haley called Mr. Trump “the right president at the right time.”But “at the end of the day, we have to win in November,” she said. “And it is time to put that negativity and that drama behind us.” More