Elections

The NewsDenying the results of the 2020 election and casting doubts about the nation’s voting system cost statewide Republican candidates 2.3 to 3.7 percentage points in the midterms last year, according to a new study from States United Action, a nonpartisan group that promotes fair elections.Why It Matters: Consequential races were close.Even at the lowest end of the spectrum, 2.3 percentage points would have been enough to swing several critical midterm races that Republicans lost, including the contests for governor and attorney general in Arizona and the Senate elections in Nevada and Georgia.In each of those races, the Republican nominee had either expressed doubts about the 2020 election or outright rejected its legitimacy.And as former President Donald J. Trump illustrated at a town-hall event last week, election denialism is very much alive within the Republican Party.But spreading such conspiracy theories again could hamper Republicans as they look to take back the Senate in 2024.“The problem for a lot of Republicans right now is that the gap between what the base wants and what swing voters will tolerate has gotten very long,” said Sarah Longwell, an anti-Trump Republican strategist.Background: A series of losses for election deniersIn the midterms, a slate of election-denying candidates ran together as the America First coalition. These candidates, organized in part by Jim Marchant, the Republican nominee for secretary of state in Nevada, sought to take over critical parts of the nation’s election infrastructure by running for secretary of state, attorney general and governor in states across the country.But in every major battleground state, these candidates lost.“What we found was lying about elections isn’t just bad for our democracy, it’s bad politics,” said Joanna Lydgate, the chief executive of States United Action.The group arrived at the 2.3 to 3.7 percentage-point “penalty” number by comparing election-denying candidates in 2022 with Republicans who did not espouse similar views, and then comparing the 2022 performance to that of 2018.On the whole, 2022 was a better year for Republicans than 2018 was. As expected, in statewide races with no election denier, Republicans did much better in 2022 than in 2018 on average, but the same did not hold true for election-denying candidates.What’s Next: Big Senate races in 2024Several candidates who were a core part of the election denial movement have signaled an intent to run again in 2024, including Mr. Marchant in Nevada. Others, including Kari Lake and Doug Mastriano, who lost races for governor in Arizona and Pennsylvania, are reportedly considering bids for Senate.And as Mr. Trump continues to demand fealty to such beliefs and hold sway over Republican primaries, the issue is likely to linger in G.O.P. politics.Most battleground states are not holding contests for governor and secretary of state until 2026, but several marquee Senate races next year will determine control of the chamber.“What’s really interesting is that the results there are different from the results for congressional races and state legislative races,” Ms. Lydgate said. “We think that’s because in these statewide races for governor, state attorney general, secretary of state, voters really came to understand that those are the people who oversee voting. Those are the people who are in charge of your freedom to vote.” More

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey’s presidential election appeared on Sunday to be headed for a runoff after the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, failed to win a majority of the vote, a result that left the longtime leader struggling to stave off the toughest political challenge of his career.The outcome of the vote set the stage for a two-week battle between Mr. Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition leader, to secure victory in a May 28 runoff that may reshape Turkey’s political landscape.With the unofficial count nearly completed, Mr. Erdogan received 49.4 percent of the vote to Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s 44.8 percent, according to the state-run Anadolu news agency.But both sides claimed to be ahead.“Although the final results are not in yet, we are leading by far,” Mr. Erdogan told supporters gathered outside his party’s headquarters in Ankara, the capital.Speaking at his own party’s headquarters, Mr. Kilicdaroglu said the vote would express the “nation’s will.” He said, “We are here until each and every vote is counted.’’The competing claims came early Monday after a nail-biter evening during which each camp accused the other of announcing misleading information. Mr. Erdogan warned the opposition on Twitter against “usurping the national will” and called on his party faithful “not to leave the polling stations, no matter what, until the results are finalized.”Opposition politicians disputed the preliminary totals reported by Anadolu, saying that their own figures collected directly from polling stations showed Mr. Kilicdaroglu in the lead.At stake is the course of a NATO member that has managed to unsettle many of its Western allies by maintaining warm ties with the Kremlin. One of the world’s 20 largest economies, Turkey has an array of political and economic ties that span Asia, Africa, Europe and the Middle East, and its domestic and foreign policies could shift profoundly depending on who wins.Supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on Sunday night.Ozan Kose/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe vote was in many ways a referendum on the performance of Mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s dominant politician for 20 years.After he became prime minister in 2003, he presided over a period of tremendous economic growth that transformed Turkish cities and lifted millions of Turks out of poverty. Internationally, he was hailed as a new model of a democratic Islamist, one who was pro-business and wanted strong ties with the West.But over the past decade, Mr. Erdogan’s critics grew both at home and abroad. He faced mass protests against his governing style in 2013, and in 2016, two years after he became president, he survived a coup attempt. Along the way, he seized opportunities to sideline rivals and gather more power into his hands, drawing accusations from the political opposition that he was tipping the country into autocracy.Since 2018, a sinking currency and inflation that official figures say exceeded 80 percent last year and was 44 percent last month have eroded the value of Turks’ savings and salaries.Mr. Erdogan’s inability to clinch a victory in the first round of voting on Sunday confirmed a decline in his standing among voters angry with his stewardship of the economy and his consolidation of power. In his last election, in 2018, he won outright against three other candidates with 53 percent of the vote. His closest challenger received 31 percent.On Sunday, one voter, Fatma Cay, said she had supported Mr. Erdogan in the past but did not do so this time, in part because she was angry at how expensive foodstuffs like onions had become.“He has forgotten where he comes from,” said Ms. Cay, 70. “This nation can raise someone up, but we also know how to bring someone down.”Still, she did not flip to Mr. Kilicdaroglu, voting instead for a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who received about 5 percent of the vote. The elimination of Mr. Ogan could give an edge to Mr. Erdogan in the runoff, as Mr. Ogan’s right-wing nationalist followers are more likely to prefer him.Mr. Erdogan remains popular with rural, working class and religious voters, who credit him with developing the country, enhancing its international standing and expanding the rights of devout Muslims in Turkey’s staunchly secular state.“We just love Erdogan,” said Halil Karaaslan, a retiree. “He has built everything: roads, bridges and drones. People are comfortable and in peace.”That, Mr. Karaaslan said, was more important than rising prices. “There is no economic crisis,” he said. “Sure, things are expensive, but salaries are almost as high. It balances.”Seeking to capitalize on voter frustration, a coalition of six opposition parties came together to challenge Mr. Erdogan, backing a joint candidate, Mr. Kilicdaroglu.Kemal Kilicdaroglu represented several opposition parties to mount a challenge to Mr. Erdogan.Bulent Kilic/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant who ran Turkey’s social security administration before leading Turkey’s largest opposition party, campaigned as the antithesis of Mr. Erdogan. Offering a contrast to Mr. Erdogan’s tough-guy rhetoric, Mr. Kilicdaroglu filmed campaign videos in his modest kitchen, talking about daily issues like the price of onions.Sunday’s vote was also held to determine the makeup of Turkey’s 600-member Parliament, although the results for those seats were not expected until Monday. The Parliament lost significant power when the country changed to a presidential system after a referendum backed by Mr. Erdogan in 2017. The opposition has vowed to return the country to a parliamentary system.Adding to the importance of these elections for many Turks is that 2023 marks the 100th anniversary of the country’s founding as a republic after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. A national celebration is scheduled for the anniversary, on Oct. 29, and the president will preside over it.The election was also driven by issues that have long polarized Turkish society, like the proper place for religion in a state committed to strict secularism. In his 11 years as prime minister and nine as president, Mr. Erdogan has expanded religious education and eased rules that restricted religious dress.Derya Akca, 29, cited her desire to cover her hair as a primary reason she supported Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party. “They defend my freedom to wear a head scarf, which is the most important factor for me,” said Ms. Akca, who works in an Istanbul clothing store.She recalled being so embarrassed after a college professor humiliated her in front of the class that she quit school, a decision she now regrets. “I felt like an outsider,” she said. “I now wish I had stayed and fought.”But elsewhere in the city, Deniz Deniz, the co-owner of a bar popular with the city’s L.G.B.T.Q. community, bemoaned how the number of such establishments had diminished in the past decade of Mr. Erdogan’s tenure.“I want so much to change,” Mr. Deniz said. “I want a country where LGBT+ folk and women aren’t rejected. I want an egalitarian and democratic country.”Turks casting ballots in Istanbul on Sunday.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesIn Turkey’s southern region, which was devastated by powerful earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 people, many voters took out their anger at the government’s response at the ballot box.“We had an earthquake and the government didn’t even intervene,” said Rasim Dayanir, a quake survivor who voted for Mr. Kilicdaroglu. “But our minds were made up before the earthquake.”Mr. Dayanir, 25, had fled the city of Antakya, which was largely destroyed in the quake, but returned with eight family members to vote on Sunday.He stood amid hundreds of voters who had lined up to vote inside of a primary school. Others cast votes in shipping containers that had been set up to replace destroyed polling places. Mr. Dayanir said his uncle, aunt and other members of his family had been killed in the quake.“We are hopeful,” he said. “We believe in change.”Ben Hubbard More

Thais on Sunday cast votes against their military leaders, backing instead a populist political mainstay and a progressive upstart bent on shaking up the status quo.Voters in Thailand overwhelmingly sought to end nearly a decade of military rule on Sunday, casting ballots in favor of two opposition parties that have pledged to curtail the power of the country’s powerful conservative institutions: the military and the monarchy.With 97 percent of the votes counted early Monday morning, the progressive Move Forward Party was neck and neck with the populist Pheu Thai Party. Move Forward had won 151 seats to Pheu Thai’s 141 in the 500-seat House of Representatives.In most parliamentary systems, the two parties would form a new governing coalition and choose a prime minister. But under the rules of the current Thai system, written by the military after its 2014 coup, the junta will still play kingmaker.The election had widely been seen as an easy victory for Pheu Thai, the country’s largest opposition party founded by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. A billionaire tycoon, Mr. Thaksin, 73, was ousted in a coup in 2006 after accusations of corruption, but he is still fondly remembered as a populist champion for the rural poor. Polls had showed that Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, was the leading choice for prime minister.But in a surprise, the Move Forward Party, a progressive political party that called for upending old power structures and amending a law that criminalizes public criticism of the monarchy, made stunning strides, capturing young urban voters, and the capital, Bangkok.“We can frame this election as a referendum on traditional power centers in Thai politics,” said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “People want change, and not just a change of government, they want structural reform.”Supporters of the Move Forward Party react as they watch results come in at the party headquarters in Bangkok on Sunday night.Jack Taylor/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe key question that many Thais now have is whether the military establishment, which has long kept an iron grip on Thailand’s politics, will accept the result.Move Forward has targeted institutions and policies once considered sacrosanct in Thai society, including mandatory military conscription and the laws that protect the king from criticism. And having the Pheu Thai Party in government could effectively place the party’s founder and one of the military’s top rivals, Mr. Thaksin, back at the center of the country’s politics.The results were a humbling blow for Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the general who governed Thailand for almost nine years, the longest stretch of military governance in a nation used to coups.Mr. Prayuth has presided over a lagging economy, and in 2020 waged a harsh crackdown on protesters who gathered in the streets of Bangkok to call for democratic reforms. Although Thailand is one of two formal U.S. allies in Southeast Asia, he distanced himself from Washington and leaned closer to Beijing.As of early Monday, it remained unclear who would ultimately lead the country. The junta rewrote the country’s Constitution in 2017 so that selecting the prime minister would come down to a joint vote between the 250-member military-appointed Senate and the popularly elected House of Representatives. The decision could take weeks or months.Because both Pheu Thai and Move Forward do not have enough seats to form a majority, they will need to negotiate with each other and other parties to establish a coalition. Analysts said Move Forward’s stance on changing the royal protection law might complicate negotiations for forming a coalition. Before the vote, Move Forward attempted to moderate its position on the measure, toning down its calls for reform.Pheu Thai Party’s prime ministerial candidates Paetongtarn Shinawatra, center, and Srettha Thavisin, third from left, in Bangkok on Sunday night.Manan Vatsyayana/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesBut on Sunday, Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of Move Forward made it clear that the amendment was still high on his party’s agenda, saying they now have enough members of Parliament to push it forward.“So it’s not conditional, it’s already absolute that we are going with it,” he said.Mr. Pita, 42, a former businessman, was fielded as Move Forward’s leader after the country’s Constitutional Court dissolved the party’s previous iteration, the Future Forward Party, in 2020, and barred the party’s senior executives from politics for 10 years. A graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Mr. Pita is a charismatic speaker, who called on voters to create “a new history in Thai politics.”His background as a technocrat contrasts with the leading contender from Pheu Thai, which has sought to promote Ms. Paetongtarn, Mr. Thaksin’s youngest daughter.Ms. Paetongtarn, an executive in her family’s hotel management company with little political experience, was selected to run after her father said people “wanted to see a Shinawatra family representative as a force in the party.”She proved to be an effective campaigner, stumping even in the last weeks of her pregnancy. (She gave birth on May 1 and quickly returned to the campaign trail.) The strong showing for Move Forward was remarkable for a party that was thought to be too radical for the general population. Move Forward ran on a platform that included legalizing same-sex marriage and a $13 daily minimum wage.The election was cast as an existential struggle for the future of the country. Both Pheu Thai and Move Forward campaigned on pledges to return Thailand to the path of electoral democracy, calling on people to reject the “uncles” or the “Three Ps,” referring to the generals who have governed Thailand since the coup: Mr. Prayuth, Deputy Prime Minister General Prawit “Pom” Wongsuwan and Interior Minister General Anupong “Pok” Paochinda.United Thai Nation Party’s candidate Prayut Chan-O-Cha in Bangkok on Sunday.Lillian Suwanrumpha/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMove Forward was even more emphatic in saying that it would never work with military-backed parties, a stance that drew more voters to the party. Several youths who had joined the 2020 protests campaigned as first-time candidates for Move Forward in the election.The vote underscored just how politically fragmented the nation of 72 million is now. No longer is it split between the “red shirt” pro-Thaksin protesters from the rural north and the “yellow shirt” anti-Thaksin faction made up of royalists and the urban elite. Now it is divided along generational lines.On Sunday, millions of Thais lined up in roughly 100-degree heat to cast their vote.“I really hope for change,” said Saisunee Chawasirikunthon, 48, an employee at a telecommunications company. “We have lived with the same old thing for the past eight years.”During his final rally on Friday, Mr. Prayuth, the former general, urged voters to choose continuity, playing a video that showed graffiti on the Democracy Monument in Bangkok and a young girl uploading a pornographic clip of herself because she had “freedom.”“We don’t need change that flips the country,” he said.For the past century, Thailand has swung between civilian democracy and military control, with the armed forces engineering a dozen coups within that period. On Thursday, Narongpan Jitkaewthae, Thailand’s army chief, took pains to assure the public that things would be different this time.He said that the country had learned its lessons from its past, and that “politics in a democratic system must continue,” although he added that he “cannot guarantee” that another coup would not happen. More

“I think the media has tried to divide them by saying we have to decide certain weeks,” Ms. Haley said in an interview on CBS News. “In states, yes. At the federal level, it’s not realistic.”The Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley refused on Sunday to endorse a federal abortion ban at a specific number of weeks’ gestation, saying that to do so would be to lie to the American people about what is politically possible.“I think the media has tried to divide them by saying we have to decide certain weeks,” Ms. Haley said in an interview on CBS News’s “Face the Nation.” “In states, yes. At the federal level, it’s not realistic. It’s not being honest with the American people.”She was responding to a question from her interviewer, Margaret Brennan, about why she would not join another likely candidate, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, in endorsing a 20-week national ban.Ms. Haley has said — and she repeated in the interview — that the Senate filibuster makes it impossible to pass a federal abortion ban as strict as the ones that many Republican-led states have passed since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, and that any anti-abortion president will therefore need to find a “national consensus.” (A Republican Senate majority could, if it chose, remove the filibuster.) But her comments on Sunday stood out for the explicitness of her rejection of committing to a gestational limit.That refusal is particularly noteworthy because just last month one of the nation’s most prominent anti-abortion groups praised her for, it said, indicating that she would support a federal ban at 15 weeks. The group, S.B.A. Pro-Life America, has said it will not endorse a candidate who doesn’t pledge to go at least that far.At no point had Ms. Haley made such a commitment publicly; in a speech at S.B.A. headquarters on April 25, she stuck to her “national consensus” line. But at the time the group told a reporter for The Hill that it had been “assured she would set national consensus at 15 weeks.”In a statement late Sunday afternoon, Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of S.B.A., claimed there was a consensus for a 15-week ban — something that has not been evident in elections or consistently in polls — and said: “The pro-life movement must have a nominee who will boldly advocate for this consensus, and as president will work tirelessly to gather the votes necessary in Congress. Dismissing this task as unrealistic is not acceptable.”Ms. Haley, who signed a 20-week ban as the governor of South Carolina, is far from the only Republican trying to avoid specifics on abortion.Former President Donald J. Trump’s campaign has said he wants to leave the issue to states. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas has called himself “pro-life” while hedging on details. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who is likely to enter the presidential race soon, recently signed a six-week ban in his state but has not gotten behind anything similar at the federal level.One potential candidate, Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, went in the opposite direction on Sunday. In an interview on MSNBC’s “Inside With Jen Psaki,” Mr. Sununu, who describes himself as pro-choice but who signed a ban on most abortions after 24 weeks in his state, said the federal government should not be involved at all.“Not only would I not sign a national abortion ban, but nobody should be talking about signing a national abortion ban,” he said.Most candidates are walking a tightrope between social conservatives — who are an influential part of the Republican base and have been waiting decades for the opportunity to ban abortion nationwide — and the political reality that the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling and the wave of state-level bans that followed have turned anti-abortion policies into serious liabilities among Americans at large.That has been made clear through a series of election results, starting with Kansas voters’ overwhelming rejection last August of an anti-abortion constitutional amendment and continuing through Wisconsin voters’ election last month of a liberal Supreme Court justice who pledged to support abortion rights. More

Also, updates on the Turkish elections.Pita Limjaroenrat is the head of the Move Forward Party and a prime ministerial candidate.Jack Taylor/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThai voters support changeThai voters overwhelmingly sought to end nearly a decade of military rule, casting ballots in favor of two opposition parties that have pledged to curtail the power of two powerful conservative institutions: the military and the monarchy.With 97 percent of the votes counted as of early this morning, the progressive Move Forward Party was neck and neck with the populist Pheu Thai Party. Move Forward had won 151 seats to Pheu Thai’s 141 in the 500-seat House of Representatives.“We can frame this election as a referendum on traditional power centers in Thai politics,” Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said. “People want change, and not just a change of government. They want structural reform.”What is also clear is that the results are a humbling blow for Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who took power in a coup in 2014. Move Forward: The party has targeted mandatory military conscription and seeks to amend a law that criminalizes criticizing the royal family. It has made stunning strides, capturing young urban voters, and voters in the capital Bangkok.Pheu Thai: The party was founded by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is still fondly remembered as a champion for the poor after his ousting in a coup in 2006 amid accusations of corruption. Thaksin’s daughter was the leading choice for prime minister, according to polls.What’s next: Because both Pheu Thai and Move Forward do not have enough seats to form a majority, they will need to negotiate with other parties to establish a coalition. But under the rules of the Thai system, written by the military after the coup, the junta would still play kingmaker. A decision about who will lead could take weeks or even months.Turkey’s election could unseat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesTurkey’s pivotal electionPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan was facing the fiercest political challenge to his 20 years in power as Turkish voters went to the polls yesterday. The outcome could reshape the domestic and foreign policies of Turkey.The results are still coming in, but the state-run news agency reported that initial results showed Erdogan ahead. Opposition leaders dismissed those figures, and Erdogan’s top challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, wrote on Twitter, “We are leading.”If no candidate secures a majority, the two front-runners would go to a runoff on May 28. Follow our live coverage.Background: The vote was, in many ways, a referendum on Erdogan’s two decades as Turkey’s dominant politician. He faced an extremely tight race, largely because of anger at the state of the economy, which has suffered painful inflation since 2018.The vote also came three months after earthquakes killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey, raising questions about whether Erdogan’s emphasis on construction produced buildings that were unsafe.Election integrity: Turkey is neither a full-blown democracy nor a full-blown autocracy, and Erdogan has tilted the political playing field in his favor over the past two decades.The war in Ukraine: A defeat for Erdogan would be a boon to the West and a loss for Russia. Erdogan has increased trade with Moscow, pursued closer ties with President Vladimir Putin and hampered NATO’s expansion.Residents surveying the damage from Cyclone Mocha in Kyauktaw, Myanmar, yesterday.Sai Aung Main/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesCyclone Mocha makes landfallA storm forecast to be the strongest to hit Myanmar in more than a decade made landfall near the Bangladesh border yesterday. The storm, Cyclone Mocha, has killed at least six people, but early reports suggest that it so far has not led to the humanitarian catastrophe that the authorities feared.The area hit by the cyclone, in western Myanmar, is home to some of the world’s poorest people. The storm passed through Cox’s Bazar, a city in Bangladesh that is home to the world’s largest refugee encampment, though officials said they had not yet received reports of damage there.The World Food Program said it was preparing for a large-scale emergency response. But some officials expressed cautious hope that the region could be spared the storm’s worst possible damage as it weakened over land.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificSupporters of the opposition party celebrating the Karnataka state election results.Aijaz Rahi/Associated PressPrime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party lost the elections in Karnataka, the only state government it held in India’s south.Beijing’s crackdown on companies with foreign ties has spooked some business executives. The country’s focus on bolstering national security may harm its economic growth.China ordered Tesla to recall 1.1 million vehicles over braking risks.A prominent human rights activist in China was sentenced to eight years in prison, after being detained in 2021 for trying to fly to the U.S. to visit his dying wife.The War in UkraineUkraine is making small gains in Bakhmut, but Russia still controls about 90 percent of the city.A Chinese envoy will visit Ukraine and Russia this week in an attempt to negotiate an end to the war.President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Germany’s leaders in Berlin and thanked them for their massive aid package.Some U.S. and European officials say the next phase of the war could create momentum for diplomacy with Russia.Around the WorldThe five-day escalation killed at least 33 people in Gaza and two in Israel.Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/ReutersA cease-fire between Israel and Palestinian fighters in the Gaza Strip was largely upheld yesterday, aside from a brief exchange of fire.Sweden won this year’s Eurovision Song Contest, which showed European solidarity with Ukraine.Iran released two French citizens who had been accused of spying, which they denied.A Kenyan pastor promised his followers salvation through death by starvation. As of last week, 179 bodies have been exhumed from his property.A Morning ReadConnie Chung, center, is one of the most famous Asian women in the U.S. Connie Aramaki for The New York TimesMany Asian American women are named after Connie Chung, a veteran U.S. television journalist. The writer Connie Wang explored the phenomenon, which she calls “Generation Connie.”“We all have our own stories about how our families came to the United States, and why they chose the name they did,” she wrote. “But we’re also part of a larger story: about the patterns that form from specific immigration policies, and the ripple effects that one woman on TV prompted just by being there, doing her job.”ARTS AND IDEASDurga Mahato was beaten and accused of being a witch.Samyukta Lakshmi for The New York TimesWitch hunting in IndiaFor centuries in India, the branding of witches was driven largely by superstition. A crop would fail, a well would run dry, or a family member would fall ill, and villagers would find someone — almost always a woman — to blame for a misfortune whose cause they did not understand.Many Indian states have passed laws to eradicate witch hunting, but the practice persists in some states. From 2010 to 2021, more than 1,500 people were killed after accusations of witchcraft, according to government data.One state has tried to stop the practice by deploying “witch-hunting prevention campaign teams,” which conduct street plays to raise awareness. But enforcement of anti-witch-hunting laws can be weak, and entrenched beliefs are difficult to change, activists say.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookJohnny Miller for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Sue Li.For a luxurious weekday breakfast, make these fluffy banana pancakes.What to WatchIn “The Starling Girl,” a pious teenager begins an affair with her youth pastor.What to Listen toOur editors made a playlist of hot new songs.ExerciseFitness Instagram accounts may do more harm than good. Find ones you can trust.The News QuizHow well did you follow last week’s headlines?Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Walnut or chestnut (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Don’t forget to tell us about a song that reminds you of your home. I’ve enjoyed reading your responses.The most recent edition of “The Daily” is on the U.S. debt limit.We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to [email protected]. More

In the weeks leading up to Turkey’s tightest elections in two decades, some of the 64 million eligible voters didn’t look to opinion polls for predictions about the outcome.They turned to astrologers.A few weeks ago, Dincer Guner, a renowned astrologer, carefully examined the birth chart of the Turkish republic (founded Oct. 29, 1923) and those of the presidential candidates. The result, he announced in a YouTube video, was clear: Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leading opposition candidate, would win the presidential vote, ending President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20 years in power.Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s supporters rejoiced. But Mr. Guner is just one among a universe of celebrity astrologers giving forecasts in Turkey. They enjoy large followings on social media, offering hopes of clarity amid the uncertainty of nail-biting election polls, a crippling cost of living crisis and the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey and upended millions of lives.Another prominent astrologer, Meral Guven, known for accurately forecasting the national soccer championship, predicted an election win for Mr. Erdogan, saying he would rule Turkey “until the day he dies and even after that.”The election predictions are part of a spiritualism that is common in Turkish society, where people read the future in coffee grounds, consult fortune tellers before major life decisions or visit the purported tombs of ancient mystics to make wishes.Even top politicians seek celestial guidance: Mr. Kilicdaroglu wears a martenitsa, or “wish ribbon,” on his right wrist, to be untied when his wish comes true. When a supporter asked him last month what the wish was, he replied, “This is a secret everybody knows.”Astrology serves as a balm in a country where a powerful government has eroded many people’s sense of control, according to Feyza Akinerdem, a lecturer in sociology at Bogazici University in Istanbul.“Individuals are disempowered by the grip of the state in Turkey,” Mrs. Akinerdem said. “Reliance on astrology is one way to endure the lack of power over one’s own life, particularly in tumultuous times.”Mr. Guner, whose Twitter account has more than 700,000 followers, points to 2018, when Turkey’s currency began to lose value, as the start of a new surge of interest in astrology as people sought financial counsel. “People have been increasingly asking me about where they should invest their savings, whether the exchange rate will go even further,” Mr. Guner said in an interview.“I refrain from precise answers because financial astrology is not my field of expertise,” he added.Mr. Guner must choose his words carefully, especially around politics, given that insulting the president is a criminal offense in Turkey and free media is largely muzzled. Although he predicted a defeat for Mr. Erdogan, Mr. Guner has warned the political opposition against repeating the mistakes of Turkey’s short-lived coalition governments of the 1990s, an era characterized by political bickering and economic troubles, since his readings suggest a similar pattern for the country over the next two years.While the political season has kept him busy, the astrologer said he looked forward to other pressing questions once the elections are over.“I miss people asking me about their love lives,” he said. More

The former president canceled a rally in Des Moines, citing a storm warning. The Florida governor made the most of his rival’s absence, as DeSantis allies taunted Mr. Trump.For the first time in months, Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday showed the aggressive political instincts that his allies have long insisted he would demonstrate in a contest against former President Donald J. Trump.After headlining two successful political events in Iowa, Mr. DeSantis made an unscheduled stop in Des Moines — a move aimed at highlighting the fact that Mr. Trump had abruptly postponed a planned Saturday evening rally in the area because of reports of possible severe weather.Mr. Trump’s explanation for postponing the event drew skepticism from local Iowa officials and derision from DeSantis allies about the “beautiful” weather. And Mr. DeSantis — who has avoided direct conflict with Mr. Trump — essentially kicked sand in the former president’s face by coming to an area that Mr. Trump claimed to have been told was too dangerous for him to visit.After wrapping up his events on Saturday evening elsewhere in the state, Mr. DeSantis headed to Jethro’s BBQ Southside, where he and his wife, Casey DeSantis, stood on a table outside and spoke to a cheering crowd. The barbecue joint was a short drive from where Mr. Trump had planned to host his own rally.“My better half and I have been able to be all over Iowa today, but before we went back to Florida we wanted to come by and say hi to the people of Des Moines,” a grinning Mr. DeSantis said. “So thank you all for coming out. It’s a beautiful night, it’s been a great day for us.”Mr. DeSantis’s pointed pit stop was a clear rebuke to Mr. Trump, who has tried to torment the Florida governor for months, mocking him for his falling poll numbers and perceived dearth of charisma. Mr. DeSantis’s resistance to hitting back while not a declared candidate as he finished the state’s legislative session, combined with a handful of unforced errors, had allowed the former president to take control of the race for 2024 and frustrated some of Mr. DeSantis’s allies. But as he prepares to take on Mr. Trump, who has dominated every Republican he has campaigned against in the past, Mr. DeSantis moved to show he doesn’t intend to suffer the same result. “If someone’s punching you in the face, you better punch them back,” said Terry Sullivan, who managed the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Marco Rubio of Florida — a race in which Mr. Rubio was criticized for not fighting back enough against Mr. Trump.Mr. DeSantis has been outflanked by Mr. Trump’s team at various turns until now. Saturday was the first time Mr. DeSantis has taken advantage of an opportunity to show up Mr. Trump over a perceived misstep. Mr. DeSantis needs to string together many more days like Saturday in a campaign that will rely heavily on winning the Iowa caucus early next year. But Republican activists in the state say there is an opening with caucus-goers for someone other than Mr. Trump. And the visit Saturday, where he also traveled to Sioux Center — populated by Christian conservatives whose support he must gain — was seen as a positive development by Republicans who want to defeat Mr. Trump but have been dismayed by Mr. DeSantis’s stumbles as he steps onto the national stage.Casey DeSantis mingled with attendees at the event in Cedar Rapids on Saturday.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesDespite the unforeseen — albeit indirect — jab at Jethro’s, the governor is unlikely to criticize Mr. Trump directly until after he formally announces his campaign, according to two people familiar with his political operation. And even when he does jump into the race, which is expected to happen imminently, he will largely focus on contrasting his record with Mr. Trump’s — particularly on issues like the coronavirus pandemic — while making the case that he is the candidate better equipped to defeat President Biden in a general election. It’s a strategy that avoids relitigating Mr. Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election, and one the governor is foreshadowing as he barnstorms Republican events around the country. It also positions Mr. DeSantis — who is decades younger than the 76-year-old Mr. Trump, who was recently indicted and faces the possibility of additional ones in other investigations — as interested in the future and not the past.“If we make this election about a referendum on Joe Biden and his failed policies, and we provide a positive alternative to take America in a new direction, I think Republicans will win across the board,” Mr. DeSantis said at a Saturday evening fund-raiser for the Republican Party of Iowa in Cedar Rapids. That event was shown on Fox News during time that Mr. Trump had claimed Fox News was reserving to show his rally. Mr. DeSantis’s message is already appealing to some voters, including Amy Seeger, who traveled from Milwaukee to see him speak earlier in the day at a picnic in Sioux Center.“I would vote for a shoe over Trump,” Ms. Seeger said in an interview. “It is time to move forward. Trump is very wrapped up in 2020 and playing the victim.”Mr. DeSantis also used the Iowa trip to show off the sometimes enigmatic lighter side of his personality, flipping burgers at the picnic and talking about his life as a family man with his wife at the evening fund-raiser in Cedar Rapids.At that second event, Ms. DeSantis joined her husband on stage for an interview conducted by the state Republican Party chair, Jeff Kaufmann, following remarks from the governor. Mr. DeSantis’s stump speech focuses almost exclusively on policy, leaving out the biographical details that politicians are generally expected to supply. His wife seemed to try to fill in those gaps, telling personal stories about Mr. DeSantis’s childhood in Florida, his military service, and their three young children.“When he gets home, don’t think for a second that he goes and goes right to bed,” she said. “I hand three small kids over to him and I go to bed.”The moment resonated with the crowd. “There was a tender side to him, a family side, that I didn’t really have an appreciation for,” said Bob Carlson, a physician from Muscatine who was in the audience.Mr. DeSantis greeted supporters after making an unscheduled visit to the Jethro’s BBQ Southside in Des Moines on Saturday.Bryon Houlgrave/USA Today NetworkAs Mr. DeSantis builds toward an announcement, he is beginning to show other signs of political strength in ways that matter beyond having financial backing. The outing to Iowa — where he is expected to make a return visit fairly soon — came as a super PAC backing his all-but-official presidential campaign announced support from 37 state lawmakers. Local elected officials tend to pay less attention to national polls than members of Congress, who have been slower to endorse the governor.In contrast, Mr. Trump — who had scheduled a rally to try to blot out Mr. DeSantis’s visit by appearing on the same day — abruptly called off his own event in the middle of the afternoon, citing a tornado watch.Steven Cheung, a spokesman for Mr. Trump’s campaign, said the Iowa event was sold out but that “due to the National Weather Service’s Tornado Watch in effect in Polk and surrounding counties, we were unfortunately forced to postpone the event. We will be there at the first available date.”But although it rained heavily at points, it was sunny mid-afternoon and no severe weather such as a tornado materialized, which raised questions among Iowans about whether Mr. Trump was concerned he would fail to draw the crowd he had anticipated. The lack of dangerous storms was noted by local activists who want to see the party move on from Mr. Trump. “We’re all outside on a nice night,” the influential podcast host Steve Deace wrote on Twitter from the scene of Mr. DeSantis’s barbecue victory lap. “Pretty big crowd too. No severe weather in sight. Planes landing and taking off as scheduled.”While Mr. Trump canceled his Iowa appearance, he later called in to an event hosted by the ReAwaken America Tour, a Christian nationalist, far-right movement led by Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, the QAnon promoter and national security adviser who Mr. Trump forced out early in his term. The group, which helps promote conspiracy theories, paid one of Mr. Trump’s clubs in Florida, the Doral, to hold it there. Mr. DeSantis’s hope for a win in the Iowa caucuses involves uniting a careful coalition of social conservatives who backed candidates like Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee in 2016, along with suburban moderates who went for Mr. Rubio.Yet Mr. DeSantis may be poised to pick up support from enough corners of the state to increase his support. For instance, the influential social conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats has met with the governor and has praised him publicly.Mr. DeSantis’s day was also punctuated with appearances with Senator Joni Ernst and Gov. Kim Reynolds, both Iowa Republicans. Those visits don’t necessarily mean endorsements from those officials are in the offing, but they do indicate a willingness in the state to support someone other than Mr. Trump and less concern than once existed about retribution from the former president.Bret Hayworth contributed reporting from Sioux Center, Iowa. More

The presidential race has started to crystallize, with flawed standard-bearers, worried political parties and voters unhappy with their choices.Eighteen months is an eternity in politics.But rapid-fire and high-profile events over the past week have set the tone and clarified the stakes of a still nascent presidential race featuring an incumbent president and a Republican front-runner whom many Americans, according to polling, do not want as their choices — but may feel resigned to accept.The week began with a surprising poll — probably an outlier — that showed President Biden losing to both former President Donald J. Trump and his closest presumptive primary competitor, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.Then in quick succession came a jury’s verdict holding Mr. Trump liable for sexual abuse, a raucous New Hampshire town hall that brought the former president’s falsehoods and bluster back into the spotlight, the lifting of pandemic-era controls at the U.S.-Mexico border, and a raft of endorsements for Mr. DeSantis — and an unscheduled visit to show up Mr. Trump — in Iowa that showed many Republican leaders are open to a Trump alternative.All of that left leaders, strategists and voters in both parties exceptionally anxious.“We’re in the midst of a primary that has yet to even really form, and meanwhile the opportunity to pound Biden into dirt with his incompetence is slipping,” said Dave Carney, a longtime Republican consultant in New Hampshire, where the first Republican primary votes will be cast in February. “It’s scattershot right now.”Democrats, who would be expected to rally around their standard-bearer, have spent the week expressing a divide on border security and questioning the president on key policy issues.Strategists have begged Democratic voters to get over their discontent and accept the president as the best they’re going to get.“Live in the real world,” Stuart Stevens, the longtime Republican political consultant who bolted from the party as Mr. Trump rose to power, exhorted after the New Hampshire town hall. “If you saw Donald Trump tonight and aren’t supporting Biden, you are helping elect Trump. It’s not complicated.”Representative Ro Khanna of California, a liberal Democrat often willing to say openly what other rank-and-file Democrats won’t, laid out a vision for economic renewal in a Friday speech in New Hampshire that contrasted the president’s more modest ambitions with his failure to secure the allegiance of white working-class voters whom Mr. Biden has said he is uniquely qualified to win back.“People are so desperate for some healing, for leadership that can unify,” Mr. Khanna told Democrats at a dinner in Nashua. “We do not need to compromise who we are to find common cause.”In an interview on Saturday, he said it was not meant to be a criticism. But it was “an appeal for a bolder platform that captures the imagination of working-class Americans and inspires them.”There’s no question that political predictions this far from an election are unreliable. Mr. DeSantis has yet to declare his candidacy for the White House, though he and Mr. Trump have been circling each other and competing in a shadow contest in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first contests for the Republican presidential nomination. Even Iowa voters tend not to tune in to the race until later in the year, noted David Kochel, a longtime Iowa Republican consultant.Still, the question of the moment remains: Where are we?Simon Rosenberg, who correctly predicted that a surge of Democratic activism would blunt the promised “red wave” of the 2022 midterms, said the “fear of MAGA” that powered Democratic victories in 2018, 2020 and 2022 had not diminished ahead of 2024. If anything, abortion bans rolling from state to state across the country, a disheartening surge in mass shootings and a Republican assault on educational freedom will only sharpen those fears, he said.Mr. Trump’s performance at a CNN town hall on Wednesday evening — in which the former president repeatedly lied about the 2020 election; mocked E. Jean Carroll, whose accusations of sexual abuse and defamation ended in a $5 million judgment against him; and promised a return to some of his least popular policies — only reiterated why Democrats, independents and disaffected Republicans have turned away from the G.O.P. in the key states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania.The Biden re-election campaign, now in full gear after his formal announcement last month, was making the case to reporters after the town hall, pointing to Mr. Trump’s pride in the overturning of Roe v. Wade; his dismissive take on the economic catastrophe that could ensue if the federal government defaults on its outstanding debt; his referring to Jan. 6, 2021, as “a beautiful day”; and his refusal to commit to accepting the 2024 election results.One Biden campaign adviser suggested that Mr. Trump had supplied a trove of material for attack ads. The campaign began posting videos almost immediately. Mr. DeSantis’s super PAC, Never Back Down, called the 70-minute performance “over an hour of nonsense.”The crucial question for both parties in 2024 is how to retain the voters they have and regain those they have lost.“It’s hard to understand how someone could vote for Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024, given that Trump is just going to get more Trumpy,” Mr. Rosenberg said, adding, “I’d still much rather be us than them.”Mr. Rosenberg’s assessment may be why 37 Republican officials in Iowa, including the State Senate president, Amy Sinclair, and the House majority leader, Matt Windschitl, endorsed Mr. DeSantis last week, as did the New Hampshire House majority leader, Jason Osborne.Republican consultants in both states said Mr. Trump’s universal name recognition and political persona might give him the highest floor for Republican support, but the same factors lower the ceiling of that support, giving Mr. DeSantis and other challengers a real chance to take him down, if they are willing to take it.The Trump campaign seemed aware of that dynamic last week as it attacked would-be rivals, not only those clearly preparing to enter the race but also some far from it. On Saturday, Mr. Trump laid into Georgia’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, for being disloyal, just days after an article in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggested the governor was keeping his options open.Mr. DeSantis has had his own stumbles out of the gate. His war with Disney has provided fodder for rivals who have questioned a Republican’s intrusion into the free market. His signing of a six-week abortion ban and his state’s aggressive censorship of school textbooks have raised questions among would-be Republican donors and swing voters alike. But the Florida governor also has plenty of time to make his case.“There’s a lot of game left to play, and I don’t see anything gelling yet,” Mr. Kochel said. “There’s still a lot of room for candidates not named Trump.”What Republicans seem most amazed by is the docility of Democrats in the face of Mr. Biden’s obvious weaknesses. Age and infirmity are real issues, not Republican talking points, consultants say.A Washington Post-ABC News poll published on Monday showed Mr. Biden losing head-to-head races against Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis by between five and six percentage points. Democratic pollsters have dismissed those results, pointing to anomalies like the poll’s showing Mr. Trump winning young voters outright while dramatically closing the gap with Mr. Biden for Black and Hispanic votes.Even so, there was much in the poll to undermine Mr. Biden’s claim that he, more than any other Democrat, can vanquish a Republican comeback just as he defeated Mr. Trump in 2020.Republicans say that’s just not possible.Mr. Carney said the dynamic would get worse, not better, as the 2024 campaign took shape. Chaotic scenes from the southwestern border in the coming weeks will inflame Republican voters’ fears of an “invasion” of illegal immigrants; the Republican National Committee on Friday held the president responsible for 1.4 million “gotaway” migrants that it said had crossed the border and disappeared into the interior since he took office.More important, the situation at the border could crystallize a sense among swing voters that Mr. Biden is simply not in control. With erstwhile allies like New York’s mayor, Eric Adams, and Chicago’s outgoing mayor, Lori Lightfoot, pleading for assistance with a flood of migrants, that conclusion will not be contained to Republican voters.The brewing showdown over how to raise the federal government’s borrowing limit threatens to provoke a catastrophic financial crisis as soon as next month. And while voters might blame Republicans in Congress at first, economic turmoil eventually ends up in the president’s lap.Perhaps Mr. Biden’s voters will not defect back to Mr. Trump, Republicans agree, but they could simply stay home on Election Day.“Democrats keep saying, ‘Oh, Trump’s so bad it doesn’t matter,’” Mr. Kochel said. “I don’t know. I think it matters.” More