Elections

How to make sense of the results.Perhaps the only certainty about today’s midterm elections — which will determine control of American government at all levels and shape democracy’s future — is that the polls will close tonight.“Nobody actually knows what’s going to happen,” said my colleague Lisa Lerer, who covers politics.Voter surveys suggest Republicans are favored to take back the House and potentially the Senate, but so many races are tossups that several outcomes are still possible. (Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, outlined four possible scenarios.)Results will start trickling in around 6 p.m. Eastern, when the first polls close. But the full picture could take days or weeks to emerge. Some pivotal states, like Pennsylvania, can take days to count votes. And Georgia’s Senate race, which may decide control of the chamber, could go to a December runoff.Today’s newsletter is a guide to what’s at stake and what to look for as results come in, including potential signposts for control of Congress.The stakesThe midterm campaigns have focused largely on three issues: the rising cost of living, crime and abortion. “Everybody’s a little bit angry about something,” said my colleague Jennifer Medina, who’s in Nevada covering races there. “No matter which party you’re voting for, you’re angry about something.”A divided federal government is unlikely to do much about those issues. More directly in play is each party’s issue agenda. If Democrats keep the House and the Senate, they will get more shots at passing legislative priorities such as tax increases on the wealthy and tax credits for families with children.If Republicans take the House, they have suggested they may try to cut spending on Ukraine aid, health care and other federal programs, and would likely open investigations into Biden administration officials. If Republicans win the Senate as well, they will also have the final say over President Biden’s nominations to his administration and the courts.Many Republicans are also likely to take their cues from Donald Trump, who teased a potentially imminent presidential campaign announcement last night and could disrupt his party’s congressional agenda with his own priorities.Americans are also voting on 36 state governors and a host of state and local officials. These races could have a larger influence on some of the campaigns’ dominant issues; both abortion and criminal justice policy are largely set at the state and local levels. “Many Democrats running for governor have cast themselves as a bulwark when it comes to protecting abortion rights,” said my colleague Katie Glueck, who is covering Pennsylvania’s elections.Voters will also decide whether to approve a range of ballot measures, including abortion-related proposals in five states, marijuana legalization in five others and Medicaid expansion in South Dakota.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Final Landscape: As candidates make their closing arguments, Democrats are bracing for potential losses even in traditionally blue corners of the country as Republicans predict a red wave.The Battle for Congress: With so many races on edge, a range of outcomes is still possible. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, breaks down four possible scenarios.Voting Worries: Even as voting goes smoothly, fear and suspicion hang over the process, exposing the toll former President Donald J. Trump’s falsehoods have taken on American democracy.The races could also help determine the future of American democracy. Numerous Republican nominees continue to question the results of the 2020 presidential election. Some are running for positions, like secretary of state, that directly oversee elections; others will have a say in certifying future voting results.What to watch forHow will we know where the night is headed? There are some helpful signs to look for:Tune in around 8 p.m. Eastern: Polling places in several key states will have closed by then, including in Georgia, Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. (Here’s when polls close and when to expect results.) Watch Virginia and New Hampshire closely; both tend to count votes relatively quickly and could act as bellwethers for the rest of the nation.Possible signs of a red wave: Democrats won House seats in Virginia’s three swing districts in 2018, during a blue wave. Today, these districts could signal where the rest of the country is going. If Republicans take back two or all three of these seats, their party will likely have a good night. If they take only one, the outcome could be close. And if Republicans lose all three, the polls might have overestimated them. (If you want to look up the results for these races tonight, they are the Second, Seventh and 10th House districts.)Potential blue defense: In New Hampshire, Senator Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, is up for re-election. Polls favor her by about 3.5 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight. If she does better than that, Democrats could have a good night. If she does worse, Democrats could underperform the polls. And if Hassan loses, the party is probably in trouble: If they’re not winning elections in which they’re favored, Democrats are probably doing worse in races that are expected to be close.“If Democrats are losing there, it doesn’t speak well to Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin,” said my colleague Reid Epstein, who is covering the midterms.The remaining key races: Four closely contested elections will likely be critical: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. If Democrats lose even two, they probably will give up their narrow hold over the Senate. But we might not know the full results for these elections for days or even weeks.For live updates and analysis tonight, check the Times website, which will have results pages for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. (Here’s how The Times tabulates the vote counts.) And I’ll be back tomorrow with a rundown of the results we do have.More on today’s electionsCandidates have delivered their final pitches, stressing abortion, inflation and threats to democracy.Voter turnout is expected to be high. Here’s what you need to know today.Some Republicans, inspired by conspiracy theories, are preparing to challenge the results in Michigan.Officials are worried that lies will undermine voters’ confidence no matter who wins.An important question is whether candidates will accept results they dislike, the political scientist Lynn Vavreck writes in Times Opinion.Nancy Pelosi told CNN that the attack on her husband would affect her decision about whether to retire if Democrats lose control of the House.THE LATEST NEWSClimateWorld leaders are at the COP27 climate conference.Mohammed Abed/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“We are on a highway to climate hell,” the U.N. secretary general said at climate talks in Egypt.Today’s topics include holding companies accountable and what wealthier nations owe to the rest of the world.The top four emitters — China, the U.S., the European Union and India — aren’t meeting their climate goals.Switzerland is paying poorer countries to cut emissions and plans to take credit for the savings.Many of the most visited glaciers, including in Yosemite and Yellowstone, may disappear by 2050, the U.N. warned.Other Big StoriesApple will make some of its iPhones in India for the first time, seeking to decrease its dependency on China.Some people have left Twitter for the alternative social app Mastodon since Elon Musk took over.Taking Paxlovid within a few days of contracting Covid cuts the risk of long-term symptoms, a study found.The Supreme Court appeared ready to make it easier to challenge federal agencies.Europeans are frustrated by inflation but still supportive of Ukraine.OpinionsFentanyl and other synthetics have made drug experimentation more dangerous than ever for kids, Maia Szalavitz argues.Elon Musk wanted to go to Mars. Instead, he’s distracted by blue check marks, Eugene Robinson writes in The Washington Post.MORNING READSRobin Standefer, right, and Stephen Alesch of Roman and Williams.Landon Speers for The New York TimesDesign couple: They create unforgettable rooms.Text fights: Can “fexting” help a marriage?Please stop: The National Park Service asks you not to lick the psychedelic toads.Advice from Wirecutter: Hand-wash your cashmere sweaters.Lives Lived: The virologist and pediatrician Samuel Katz helped develop the measles vaccine, which has saved millions of lives around the world. He died at 95.SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICMonday night football: Baltimore won its third straight game with a 27-13 victory in New Orleans, maintaining its one-game lead in the A.F.C. North. The Ravens’ defense won the night with four sacks.Trading rumors: Shohei Ohtani will remain in Los Angeles through the off-season, the Angels’ general manager Perry Mianasian said. Ohtani is set to be a free agent after the season.New leadership: Indianapolis fired head coach Frank Reich yesterday and named Jeff Saturday, a former Colts offensive lineman with no professional or college coaching experience, to serve as interim.Lucrative endorsements: Female college athletes are earning millions through social media. But some worry that their brand building is regressive, Kurt Streeter writes in The Times.ARTS AND IDEAS Sang An for The New York TimesPie seasonIt’s time to plan for Thanksgiving. Start with dessert: Genevieve Ko, a Times food writer, has nine new pie recipes.Genevieve and her team began testing for the collection in August. “I ended up baking 49 pies total to finalize the nine (plus the crust!),” she said. Her goal was to evoke the classic pies of a diner — apple, pecan, pumpkin — updated with modern ingredients and techniques.If you’re not sure where to start, try the caramel apple pie, which tastes like a carnival caramel apple atop a buttery cookie. “It doesn’t match any standard pie, but it eats like a pie and shows how holiday dishes can continue to evolve over time,” Genevieve said.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookJulia Gartland for The New York TimesAny kind of pasta works with tuna, capers and scallions.What to ReadIn “Flight,” Lynn Steger Strong examines the complexity of being home for the holidays.Where to GoSpend the night in an underwater hotel.Late NightThe hosts joked about Trump’s nickname for Gov. Ron DeSantis.Now Time to PlayThe pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was excavated. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Phase out (three letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — GermanP.S. The Times’s Tracy Bennett will curate, program and test Wordle as its dedicated puzzle editor.Here’s today’s front page. “The Daily” is about Wisconsin’s elections.This edition of The Morning is also available in Spanish, as part of our El Times newsletter. Read and share the translation here.Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at [email protected] up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

Ranked-choice voting, when voters list candidates in order of preference instead of casting a single ballot, has the potential this election season to continue disrupting the influence of the dual-party system in the United States.Commonly used by cities — including New York City, for its 2021 Democratic primary for mayor — ranked-choice voting is gaining popularity around the United States as a statewide option. This year, Nevada is deciding at the polls whether to join Maine and Alaska, which adopted ranked-choice in 2021, in using it to conduct future elections.The benefits of ranked-choice, which is sometimes called instant-runoff voting because people vote only once, are plentiful, proponents say.By giving voters more selections, ranked-choice aims to diminish the likelihood of voting along party lines, reducing polarization. If voters recognize that their vote would go toward their next choice if their preferred candidate is eliminated, the system ultimately produces a winner who satisfies more of the electorate. And because it removes the binary choice of voting for only one candidate, ranked-choice incentivizes candidates to build broader backing so they could appeal to their rivals’ supporters.Critics, meantime, point to ranked-choice’s relative unfamiliarity, with experts suggesting that overhauling a voting system can lead to negative consequences like lower turnout, voter confusion or a spike in invalidated ballots.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Final Landscape: As candidates make their closing arguments, Democrats are bracing for potential losses even in traditionally blue corners of the country as Republicans predict a red wave.The Battle for Congress: With so many races on edge, a range of outcomes is still possible. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, breaks down four possible scenarios.Voting Worries: Even as voting goes smoothly, fear and suspicion hang over the process, exposing the toll former President Donald J. Trump’s falsehoods have taken on American democracy.Although the mechanics of ranked-choice are nominally the same, states have employed it in different ways.For example, Alaska in August unveiled a new electoral system approved in a 2020 ballot initiative, which opened primaries to all voters, regardless of their affiliation. Under those rules, voters could choose one candidate, and the four who drew the most votes moved on to compete in a runoff of sorts in the general election, in which voters rank their choices. The preferences are counted until someone secures a majority.In the initial stage of that experiment, ranked-choice helped Mary Peltola, a Democrat, defeat former Gov. Sarah Palin, her Republican opponent, in a special House election simply because voters had options: Even though more voters at first picked a Republican candidate, many Republican voters, when given a second choice, preferred a Democrat — Ms. Peltola — over Ms. Palin.Ms. Peltola, who became the first Alaska Native in Congress, is seated only until the term of Representative Don Young — who died unexpectedly in March — ends in January. She will vie with Ms. Palin; another Republican challenger, Nick Begich III; and Chris Bye, a libertarian in a ranked-choice election Tuesday for a full term.Alaska will also rank candidates for Senate, governor and the state legislature.In Nevada, voters will determine whether to adopt an electoral system similar to Alaska’s..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How we call winners on election night. We rely on The Associated Press, which employs a team of analysts, researchers and race callers who have a deep understanding of the states where they declare winners. In some tightly contested races, we independently evaluate A.P. race calls before declaring a winner.Here’s more about how it works.Under a proposed constitutional amendment, all registered voters will be permitted to participate in primaries for statewide and federal offices — though not for president — with the top five candidates advancing to the general election. The law currently requires voters to be registered as Democrats or Republicans in order to participate in their parties’ primaries.During the general election, voters would then list candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority, the last-place finisher would then be eliminated and his or her supporters’ votes would be reallocated to their second choices until one candidate has at least 50 percent of the votes.If approved on Tuesday, the measure would be placed on the ballot again in 2024 for voters to decide. The earliest that the changes could take effect would be in 2025. More

Nearly half of U.S. states allow voters to register and cast ballots on Election Day. Vote.gov provides state-specific information, including where to register and what documents are required.Legal battles concerning same-day registration have altered the below list since 2020. A Delaware Supreme Court judge ruled same-day registration and voting by mail unconstitutional last month after the state adopted the practices after the 2020 election. Meanwhile, in Virginia, voters can register on Election Day for the first time this year.Here is where you can register to vote on Election Day:CaliforniaColoradoConnecticutHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIowaMaineMarylandMichiganMinnesotaMontanaNevadaNew HampshireNew MexicoUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWashington D.C.WisconsinWyomingSpecial case:North Dakota does not require people to register to vote — just show up with “acceptable identification.” More

George Saunders is regarded as one of our greatest living fiction writers. He won the Booker Prize in 2017 for his novel “Lincoln in the Bardo” and has published numerous short-story collections to wide acclaim, including his most recent book, “Liberation Day.” He also happens to be one of my favorite people to read and to talk to.Saunders is an incredibly prescient and sharp observer of American political culture. Way back in 2007, he argued that our media environment was transforming politics into a competition within which the loudest voices would command the most attention and set the agenda for everyone else. With the rise of social media — and the advent of the Trump era — that observation has been more than vindicated. So as we approach the midterm elections, I wanted to have Saunders back on the show to talk about how politics and media have changed, and how those changes are shaping the way we interact, communicate and even think.[You can listen to this episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google or wherever you get your podcasts.]We discuss how Twitter takes advantage of — even warps — our “malleable” selves, how politicians like Marjorie Taylor Greene strategically manipulate our attentional environments, how Barack Obama leveraged our human desire to be recognized as our best selves, whether discipline or gentleness is more effective in helping others grow, what options we have to resist anti-democratic tendencies in our politics, whether a post-scarcity future — with jobs for everyone — would leave us more or less satisfied, how the greatest evils can be committed by those trying to care for their loved ones, what attending Trump rallies taught Saunders about political violence and more.You can listen to our whole conversation by following “The Ezra Klein Show” on Apple, Spotify, Google or wherever you get your podcasts. View a list of book recommendations from our guests here.(A full transcript of the episode will be available midday on the Times website.)Zach Krahmer“The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Emefa Agawu, Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Rogé Karma. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris and Mary Marge Locker. Original music by Isaac Jones. Mixing by Jeff Geld. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin and Kristina Samulewski. More

In private meetings, activists, lawyers and G.O.P. officials laid out their strategy. “If there is a close election, it’s going to be up to us to fix it,” one said.DETROIT — The invitation went out in early July.Republican activists, lawyers and elected officials in Michigan who call the results of the 2020 election fraudulent would unite with a single focus: “to provide ongoing citizen oversight, transparency, and accountability” in elections. They adopted the name Michigan Fair Elections and the simple slogan, “Choose Freedom.”Over the next months, the participants got to work trying to remake democracy in the nation’s 10th largest state under the banner of integrity.They recruited and trained challengers to spot and document minute ballot irregularities; filed lawsuits to undermine protections for the vote-counting process; and debated the merits of calling 911 on poll workers deemed to be violating rules. In weekly Zoom meetings, they discussed friendly insiders positioned on Michigan canvassing boards, which certify results; repeated debunked conspiracy theories about election machines, ballot “mules” and widespread voter fraud; and obsessed over the idea that Democrats “cheat” to win elections.“If there is a close election, it’s going to be up to us to fix it,” said Erick Kaardal, a lawyer with the Thomas More Society, a conservative legal group in Chicago, during an Oct. 27 Zoom attended by more than 50 people. “We’re the team that’s going to have to fix an election in Michigan if it’s rigged.”The New York Times reviewed more than 20 hours of recordings of Michigan Fair Elections meetings, along with training sessions and organizing calls from closely linked groups. What emerged was a picture of an organization fueled by falsehoods, bent on trying to influence the 2022 midterms and determined to change the voting system in ways that would benefit Republicans.The Michigan group has counterparts around the country. Since the 2020 election, activists have rallied behind Donald J. Trump’s claims about rigged elections and set out to find evidence to prove their theories and change the system. They have staked out ballot drop boxes, recruited thousands of volunteers to monitor voting in the midterm elections and filed legal challenges.In Michigan, the organizers behind the effort include both Republican stalwarts and grass-roots activists. Attendees on the calls included Cleta Mitchell, the longtime elections lawyer who tried to help Mr. Trump overturn his 2020 loss; Ann Bollin, the chairwoman of the Elections and Ethics Committee in the Michigan House of Representatives; Patrick Colbeck, a former Michigan state senator who has called election denial a “spiritual battle”; and Sandy Kiesel, a Michigan activist who runs a group still pushing to decertify the 2020 election nearly two years after Mr. Trump left office.The coalition grew out of Ms. Mitchell’s Election Integrity Network, which has established groups doing similar work in states including Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia.A ballot drop box on Sunday in downtown Grand Rapids, Mich.Brittany Greeson for The New York Times“What you’re doing is really reclaiming our country,” Ms. Mitchell said at a meeting in August. “Just remember that what we are collectively trying to do is save our country from the radical left.”Someone with access to video and audio recordings of the calls shared them with The Times. Several participants confirmed the material’s authenticity.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Final Landscape: As candidates make their closing arguments, Democrats are bracing for potential losses even in traditionally blue corners of the country as Republicans predict a red wave.The Battle for Congress: With so many races on edge, a range of outcomes is still possible. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, breaks down four possible scenarios.Voting Worries: Even as voting goes smoothly, fear and suspicion hang over the process, exposing the toll former President Donald J. Trump’s falsehoods have taken on American democracy.In a statement to The Times about her work, Ms. Mitchell said her network “is about following the law and restoring the election process to one that is accurate, honest, and protects the secret ballot for all voters.”Patrice Johnson, who sent the July invitation and oversees meetings of Michigan Fair Elections, referred requests for comment to Mr. Kaardal, who did not respond to queries.Ms. Kiesel said in an interview that she wanted “to unify the United States through transparent and trusted elections.” She said that although she attended some meetings she is not a member of the coalition.Election officials and governance experts say that if there is an erosion of trust in elections, Mr. Trump and his supporters are causing it. In Michigan, election officials say they are prepared for activists and lawyers to challenge close races in court by asking the judges to discard thousands of ballots in Democratic strongholds such as Detroit and Grand Rapids, and by filing lawsuits that seek to delay or block the certification of results.On one recent Zoom meeting, Mr. Kaardal spoke about plans to try to force the entire governor’s race to be rerun. Mr. Colbeck last week called for a “full forensic audit” — a buzz word for the type of discredited, partisan examination of votes conducted in Arizona last year — regardless of the outcome.But election experts say that they have confidence that the system is sound and that votes will be fairly and accurately counted. Millions of Americans already have cast ballots early without widespread disruption or trouble. Still, they say that such endeavors could further dent public confidence in the electoral system, which could have repercussions in the future.“I think it really undermines public confidence in the system because to some people where there’s smoke there’s fire,” said Dan Korobkin, legal director for the American Civil Liberties Union of Michigan. “It’s true our democracy didn’t fall apart in 2020, and maybe it won’t in 2022, but how many years in a row can you have that kind of situation until we really are in deep trouble?”One focus in the meetings has been defeating a ballot proposal backed by Democrats that would amend the Michigan constitution to make voting easier and force canvassing boards to certify results, among other measures.The Michigan Fair Elections participants see it as a crisis.“It’s a nuclear bomb to our elections,” Marian Sheridan, the grass-roots vice chair of the Michigan Republican Party, said in an Oct. 13 meeting.Braden Giacobazzi, an activist and engineer from the outskirts of Detroit, has led a series of training sessions for poll challengers.Nic Antaya for The New York TimesInstead, she and others associated with the group support a measure requiring voter ID and barring outside groups from donating money to election offices. The measure failed to get on the ballot, but participants hope to push it through the legislature ahead of the 2024 election, along with legislation that would make it easier for voters to sue elections officials.Ms. Sheridan did not respond to requests for comment.The most pressing issue on the calls in recent months has been preparing for the midterm elections. Planning has included some talk of monitoring ballot boxes and demanding hand recounts, strategies pursued by groups in other states, but the Michigan coalition has largely kept its focus on the courts.“Lawsuits, lawsuits, lawsuits,” Mr. Colbeck said in a meeting in early August. (A promoter of theories about hacked election machines, Mr. Colbeck is a close associate of Mike Lindell, the founder of MyPillow and a leading figure in the election denial movement.)Some groups involved have been preparing for lawsuits by stationing trained volunteers — labeled “challengers” in Michigan election law — at the vote-counting centers to collect what they claim will be evidence of problems.Late last month, Braden Giacobazzi, an activist and engineer from the outskirts of Detroit, led one of a series of poll challenger trainings for the Election Integrity Force and Fund, a group headed by Ms. Kiesel. The goal, he said, is documenting activity that can be used later in legal challenges. “You just keep gathering data, all of that as evidence,” Mr. Giacobazzi, who has been kicked out of counting centers twice in the past two years, said to around 50 new recruits.Mr. Giacobazzi said in an interview that he follows the law and wants to try to help catch fraud if there is any, to ensure a more transparent process.In September, the Election Integrity Force and others sued Michigan’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, as well as its secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson, in a bid to decertify the 2020 election.In another recent lawsuit, Mr. Giacobazzi and the Election Integrity Force joined with Kristina Karamo, Republican candidate for secretary of state, to ask a judge to effectively declare the absentee ballot system used in Detroit unlawful.Over the course of a four-hour hearing on that case last week, their lawyers referred to debunked conspiracy theories from the discredited film “2000 Mules.”“This is again part of a right-wing fever dream,” said David Fink, a lawyer for the city of Detroit, during the hearing.In a ruling issued on Monday, Judge Timothy Kenny rejected the claims, noting that the plaintiffs’ demands would disenfranchise 60,000 voters who had already cast ballots. Every one of 12 accusations submitted “are unsubstantiated and/or misinterpret Michigan law,” he wrote.By last Thursday, there were 1,100 people signed up statewide to be poll challengers as election officials begin to process absentee ballots.Nic Antaya for The New York TimesConspiracy theories frequently crept into Michigan Fair Elections’ planning meetings. In an Oct. 27 meeting, Ms. Kiesel said a lawyer had sent letters to 1,600 elections clerks in Michigan advising them to recount ballots by hand based in part on a debunked theory about voting machines.In another meeting, Ms. Kiesel boasted that her group had tried to challenge 22,000 voters before the August primaries. The secretary of state’s office said the challenges were invalid, but last week Ms. Kiesel sent out thousands more.“Groups that ignore the law and spread misinformation and lies do nothing of value,” Ms. Benson said in a statement. Participants on the calls share updates on their recruitment of both poll monitors and poll workers, the temporary workers who run polling places.On a call in August, Matt Seifried, the Republican National Committee’s elections integrity director for Michigan, said the party had installed 1,500 Republican poll workers in the state during the August primary. Some 500 of them were in Detroit alone, up from just 170 in 2020.“That is a huge accomplishment,” Mr. Seifried said.Danielle Alvarez, a spokeswoman for the R.N.C., said the party’s election integrity operation is separate from outside groups.By last week, there were 1,100 people signed up statewide to be poll challengers as election officials begin to process absentee ballots. On Election Day, Mr. Seifried said in a Zoom meeting on Thursday, there will be 30 lawyers ready to take calls from challengers who spot problems, with 65 more at polling locations, plus additional lawyers inside counting rooms in Democratic strongholds.During that meeting, Mr. Kaardal, the lawyer from the Thomas More Society, gave a final motivational speech.“Everyone on these phone calls should be very proud that we advanced the election integrity effort this far,” he said, reminding the 75 participants that there was no time to rest.“We start our forensic investigation on Election Day.”Nick Corasaniti More

Democrats are aiming to keep control of the governor’s mansion, the State Legislature and a majority of New York’s House seats, but Republicans seem to have momentum.An unusually frenetic midterms election cycle in New York will come to an end on Tuesday, when voters across the state fill out their ballots in a number of competitive races that have the power to reshape the state’s political future.With Democrats anxiously trying to hold on to their thin majority in Congress and Republicans eager to take power, New York has become a key battleground, with a handful of races that could be key in determining control of the House of Representatives.The State Legislature is also being contested, with Republicans hoping to erase the Democrats’ supermajority, as are other statewide races including the re-election bid of Letitia James, the state attorney general.But perhaps no contest on New York’s ballots has been more dramatic than the unexpectedly tight governor’s race. Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat who took office 14 months ago, entered with a significant war chest and a sizable lead in polls. But her Republican challenger, Representative Lee Zeldin, has chipped away at Ms. Hochul’s advantages, surprising Democrats in a liberal state that hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office since 2002.Over the last several months, The New York Times has covered the issues at the heart of the governor’s race and the moneyed forces behind the candidates and has examined how New York has been roiled by the political debates dividing the country.As voters head to the polls, here is a guide to what is likely to weigh on their minds.The candidates for governorMs. Hochul, 64, became New York’s first female governor last year after her predecessor, Andrew M. Cuomo, resigned. A moderate Democrat from Buffalo, Ms. Hochul was not particularly well known outside western New York before she became governor.Not long after assuming office, Ms. Hochul moved quickly to rally state party leaders behind her. As she dominated her primary campaign, she amassed a huge fund-raising haul for the general election.Gov. Kathy Hochul is in an unexpectedly tight race.Tom Brenner for The New York TimesMr. Zeldin, 42, has represented eastern Long Island in Congress since 2014. He was favored by party leaders in his primary but had to fight off challengers in a four-way race before turning his focus to defeating Ms. Hochul.He has surged in the polls over the last two months, surprising Democrats. But behind his rise are years of planning, well-timed alliances with powerful Republicans, an embrace of former President Donald J. Trump and a knack for reinvention.The issuesMr. Zeldin has mostly focused his campaign for governor on crime and public safety in New York City. He has accused Ms. Hochul of being too lenient on crime and has focused heavily on repealing the state’s bail laws, which many Republicans and moderate Democrats, including the city’s mayor, Eric Adams, have blamed for an uptick in crime, though available data do not show a clear link.Mr. Zeldin has also denounced efforts by progressive Democrats in Albany and New York City to overhaul the criminal justice system and has vowed to fire Manhattan’s district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, if elected.Ms. Hochul earlier this year worked with the State Legislature to tighten the bail laws but has said that Mr. Zeldin is overly focused on the issue. With polls showing Mr. Zeldin’s message appearing to resonate, she has in recent weeks trumpeted her push to strengthen New York’s so-called red flag laws and tried to limit where New Yorkers can carry a concealed firearm. Mr. Zeldin opposes limiting access to guns.Representative Lee Zeldin has focused on crime and public safety.Brittainy Newman for The New York TimesThe candidates have also battled over how to boost safety on the city’s subway, which is controlled by New York’s governor. Violent crimes on the subway this year are only about 2.6 percent of New York City’s total, but the rate of such crimes — murder, rape, felony assault and robbery — per subway ride has more than doubled since 2019Ms. Hochul has also tried to draw a sharp contrast with Mr. Zeldin after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn a constitutional right to abortion. Earlier this year, she announced a $35 million fund to expand abortion access in New York and moved to put the right to abortion in the State Constitution.Mr. Zeldin voted consistently to limit abortion rights in Congress. But as he has tried to win support from moderate Democrats, he has pledged not to change the state’s existing laws.Following the moneyAs the race between Ms. Hochul and Mr. Zeldin has become more competitive, both candidates have attracted a flurry of outside spending.Mr. Zeldin has benefited from more than $11 million spent by Ronald S. Lauder, the billionaire cosmetics heir who has been backing conservative causes in the state. Mr. Lauder’s money has largely gone to two super PACs, which the state’s top elections watchdog is investigating over charges that they improperly coordinated with Mr. Zeldin’s campaign.Ms. Hochul has spent the last year putting together a $50 million war chest, often through fund-raising events that Republicans frequently attacked as ethically questionable. Many of her donations have come from the gambling industry, which is eagerly awaiting new licenses for casinos in and around New York City.She has also been taking money from appointees to boards and commissions, despite an executive order designed to prevent such donations.A quick guide to House racesMany states in the country used their redistricting process to lower the number of truly competitive House districts. But after an attempted Democratic gerrymander led to a court battle and new maps, New York has more competitive races than might be expected.They include:Three House seats on Long Island, in suburban swing districts where Republicans hope to chip away at recent Democratic support.The rematch in Staten Island and southern Brooklyn, where former Representative Max Rose is distancing himself from national Democrats in a bid to defeat Representative Nicole Malliotakis, the Republican who unseated him in 2020.The fight in the 17th District in the Hudson Valley, where Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, a Democrat who controls the party’s House campaign arm, appears vulnerable.A neighboring seat near Poughkeepsie, where Representative Pat Ryan, a Democrat, who won a special election just months ago, is trying to win a neighboring seat.A Syracuse-area district that is a rare chance for Democrats to flip a Republican-held seat by appealing to moderate voters.When and where to votePolls will be open on Election Day from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. You can find your polling place at voterlookup.elections.ny.gov, a State Board of Elections website. If you live in New York City, you can also call 1-866-VOTE-NYC.Absentee ballots must be returned by mail, with a postmark no later than Nov. 8, or in person at a polling site or a county Board of Elections office by 9 p.m. on Election Day.Voters who encounter any difficulties can call the attorney general’s election protection hotline at 1-866-390-2992. More

I called Mark Levine, the Manhattan borough president, on Monday morning to see how worried he was about New York’s governor’s race. Levine, a Democrat who’d just come from campaigning with Gov. Kathy Hochul, was pretty worried. Yes, polls have shown Hochul consistently ahead of the Trumpist Republican congressman Lee Zeldin, but Levine thought the race could go either way.“I don’t think we know how accurate polls are in New York State,” Levine told me, noting how long it’s been since New York has had a competitive statewide general election. “And there’s no doubt that Zeldin has used the crime issue to whip up energy on his side.”There are many reasons to be aghast at the idea of a gun-loving election denier taking power in a state that’s been as reliably liberal as New York. One of them is what Zeldin might do to New York’s status as a haven for abortion access.Though Zeldin is a co-sponsor in the House of the Life at Conception Act, which would bestow full personhood rights on embryos, he’s tried to neutralize abortion as a campaign issue by insisting that he couldn’t change New York’s abortion law even if he wanted to.There’s something bizarre about this argument: As Assemblywoman Deborah Glick pointed out to me, Zeldin is telling pro-choice New Yorkers that we can rely on the Legislature to protect us from him. And while it’s true that Zeldin wouldn’t be able to ban abortion anytime soon, there are many things, short of making abortions illegal, that a governor can do to make them harder to get.Zeldin’s strategy is similar to the one that Christine Drazan, the anti-abortion Republican with a decent chance of becoming governor of Oregon, is employing in her race. Both are trying to use Democrats’ success in passing state-level abortion protections against them, by arguing that these laws make their personal opposition to abortion moot.“I will not change and could not change New York’s abortion law,” Zeldin said in one ad, while Drazan told Oregon Public Broadcasting that “Roe is codified into Oregon law. Regardless of my personal opinions on abortion, as governor, I will follow the law.” But when it comes to reproductive rights, the letter of the law isn’t the only thing that matters.New York, for example, recently passed a statute that, among other things, prohibits law enforcement from cooperating with out-of-state prosecutors on most abortion cases. But whether a Governor Zeldin would be totally constrained by the law is unclear. He has promised to remove Manhattan’s district attorney, Alvin Bragg, from office, even though Bragg was elected last year with 84 percent of the vote, suggesting a willingness to push the limit of his authority. Oregon, meanwhile, has no such law, only a written commitment from the governor, the Democrat Kate Brown, to resist out-of-state legal actions over abortion.In both Oregon and New York, there are lots of administrative levers governors could pull to stymie reproductive health care. Zeldin has said it would be a “great idea” to appoint an anti-abortion health commissioner, a position with a lot of power in the state. Shortly after the draft of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe was leaked in May, Hochul created the $25 million Abortion Provider Support Fund to help New York providers care for an expected influx of out-of-state patients, and allocated $10 million more to help clinics beef up their security. Zeldin would almost certainly do away with grants like these. Drazan has criticized a similar grant program in Oregon, referring derisively to the funding of “abortion tourism.”New York’s governor “controls the purse strings, because he controls the division of the budget,” said Glick, who led the fight to pass the 2019 Reproductive Health Act, which codified Roe and expanded the number of health professionals who can legally perform abortions in the state. As governor, she said, Zeldin could withhold money from Planned Parenthood and restrict Medicaid funding for abortion. “You can slowly starve some programs by simply not providing resources in a timely fashion.”Of course, the people who care deeply about the nuances of reproductive health policy are probably already voting for Democrats, which is why pointing out all the ways right-wing governors could erode abortion access feels so dispiriting. Politically, the anti-abortion movement has often been at its strongest when it’s fighting for regulations that strangle providers with red tape or cut off public funding, because most people aren’t going to get far enough into the weeds to get outraged.While Roe still stood, the anti-abortion movement used a strategy of regulatory siege to chip away at abortion rights in red states. With anti-abortion governors, a similar strategy could be deployed in blue ones. Speaking to New York Right to Life in April, Zeldin promised an open-door policy. “Come on in to the second floor of the New York State Capitol,” he said. “It’s been a while, but you come right on in.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: [email protected] The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

Strategists are watching a few East Coast races that could be called early, offering a rough road map to the entire country.Want to know how the story of the 2022 midterms is going to end as soon as possible on election night? Strategists in both parties are zeroing in on a handful of East Coast races that could be called early in the evening, giving us a rough road map to the entire country. (Here’s when to expect the results in every state.)The simplest strategy is to follow three House races in Virginia that will function on Tuesday like a gauge along a flood-prone coastal plain — telling us whether this election will be a red ripple, a red wave, a red tsunami or something closer to a modest blue riptide. Polls close there at 7 p.m. Eastern.Red ripple: The most vulnerable Democrat in Virginia is Representative Elaine Luria, a former Navy commander whose district is the military- and veteran-heavy area around Virginia Beach. Biden won the area by 1.9 percentage points in 2020, but during last year’s race for governor in Virginia, it went Republican by double digits. Watch Virginia Beach County, which swung from a five-point victory for Democrats in 2020 to an eight-point loss a year later.If Luria survives, Democrats will be ecstatic. It might mean that a few Republicans, like Representatives Steve Chabot of Ohio or Don Bacon of Nebraska, are in trouble.Red wave: Next up is Representative Abigail Spanberger, a former C.I.A. officer who faces Yesli Vega, the daughter of Salvadoran refugees. The district includes a mix of suburban and rural areas southwest of Washington. Republicans think they have a shot at ousting Spanberger even though Biden won the area by 6.8 percentage points in 2020.Remember: Rural areas usually count faster, so Spanberger will appear to be way down before the most populous county in her district, Prince William, tallies its votes. Take note of just how easily Republicans are winning in Spanberger’s rural counties. Last year, Glenn Youngkin carried Greene County by 36 percentage points on the way to the governor’s mansion.Red tsunami: If Representative Jennifer Wexton, the Democratic incumbent in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, loses to Hung Cao, a Navy veteran who is running for office for the first time, Democrats are in for a brutal night. The only remaining question will be just how brutal — Biden won the upscale Virginia exurban area by 18.1 percentage points, though Youngkin closed that gap against Terry McAuliffe in 2021.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Final Landscape: As candidates make their closing arguments, Democrats are bracing for potential losses even in traditionally blue corners of the country as Republicans predict a red wave.The Battle for Congress: With so many races on edge, a range of outcomes is still possible. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, breaks down four possible scenarios.Voting Worries: Even as voting goes smoothly, fear and suspicion hang over the process, exposing the toll former President Donald J. Trump’s falsehoods have taken on American democracy.If Wexton hangs on but Luria and Spanberger lose, Republicans will still pop the Moët early: Of the 88 House seats deemed even remotely competitive this year, there are 45 more districts where Democrats won a smaller share of the vote in 2020 — 26 of which are currently held by the party.Many or all of them could flip. A suburban Democrat like Representative Angie Craig in Minnesota would need to worry, as would once-comfortable Democratic incumbents in West Coast states like California.Virginia could also provide clues to the national mood of Black voters, whose tepid enthusiasm for Biden has worried Democrats. Sean Trende, a political analyst who served as a special master during Virginia’s redistricting process, suggested looking at the returns in Hampton City and Surry Counties to gain insight into how turnout among Black voters in both urban and rural areas is shaping up.A seven-point swing in Spanberger’s district would also suggest that polls have been overstating Democrats’ support elsewhere. In that scenario, some Democratic governors might fall: Tony Evers in Wisconsin, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, even Tim Walz in Minnesota. It would signal that Republicans are likely to retake the Senate, where they need to flip just one seat.But, but, but …With apologies to Tip O’Neill, all politics is national now. But local factors — unique demographics, strong and weak candidates, well-run and hapless campaigns — still matter at the margins, where races are often won and lost.There are otherwise vulnerable Democrats like Representative Marcy Kaptur of Ohio and Representative Chris Pappas of New Hampshire who might stave off defeat because they face flawed Republican opponents. In a wave year, though, even those seemingly fortunate Democrats might go down.“If Marcy loses, we lose every single seat Trump won and probably every seat Biden won by 2 or less,” said Brian Stryker, a Democratic pollster at Impact Research. That’s 14 seats.There are also comparatively strong Republican candidates elsewhere along the East Coast like Allan Fung, who could win an open seat in Rhode Island that Biden won by more than 14 points. And if George Logan, a Republican business executive, defeats Representative Jahana Hayes, a Democrat, in staunchly blue northwestern Connecticut, it would suggest that Republicans are persuading Democratic voters to break ranks.What if Luria loses and Spanberger wins, but just barely? Pour yourself a cup of coffee and settle in. Things are going to get interesting.The Senate: Brace for uncertaintyWhile most analysts in both parties expect Republicans to win the House fairly easily, it will probably be much longer before the balance of power in the Senate becomes clear.Polling in most, if not all, of the major competitive Senate races is within the margin of error, suggesting the results could be close in either direction.And because rural counties tend to count the fastest, it might initially look as if Republicans are far ahead in many states until more Democratic votes are tallied in populous urban areas.The Associated Press and the major TV networks use mathematical models to determine the winner before all the votes are in. But this year, a definitive outcome could take days to unfold, Democrats have cautioned leaders of the news media in a recent round of briefings.Supporters of Mehmet Oz, the Republican Senate candidate, at an event on Sunday in Bethlehem, Pa.Hilary Swift for The New York TimesPennsylvania, for one, mandates that in-person ballots be counted before mail-in and absentee votes. If the Senate race there between Mehmet Oz and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman turns out to be as close as the polling indicates, every one of those late-counted votes could matter. In New Hampshire, election officials are warning that a surge of write-in votes could slow the count.In 2020, the Senate special election in Arizona came down to just 78,806 votes, though The A.P. declared Mark Kelly the winner on election night. In Georgia, Jon Ossoff was behind Senator David Perdue by about the same number. But since neither candidate reached 50 percent, they went to a runoff two months later.Democrats did not secure their majority until the runoff contests on Jan. 5, 2021, when both Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, who ran in a special election against Senator Kelly Loeffler, narrowly defeated their Republican opponents.We could be headed for another runoff in Georgia if neither candidate wins an outright majority. And if Democrats win three of the other battleground races elsewhere, control of the Senate will again come down to the Peach State. Can Warnock bank enough votes in the sprawling Atlanta suburbs to offset the rural strength of his rival, Herschel Walker?Counties to watchWhile you’re waiting, here are some places to home in on:New Hampshire: It’s smaller than the other states, and could be the one where we first learn the winner. Here, the county to monitor is Hillsborough, which Hillary Clinton and Senator Maggie Hassan both lost narrowly in 2016. Biden then flipped it convincingly in 2020. Home to Manchester and Nashua and their suburbs, it’s the state’s most populous county.Nevada: The state has only two significant urban areas: Clark County, home of Las Vegas and a Democratic stronghold; and Washoe County, home of Reno and a swing region. When Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Joe Heck to win her Senate seat in 2016, she lost every county but Clark — where she bested him by more than 82,000 votes. Two years later, Jacky Rosen won big in Clark County and defeated Senator Dean Heller, the Republican incumbent, in Washoe County, too. If Cortez Masto isn’t running up the score in Vegas, big-time, she probably won’t win.Arizona: Statewide races are won and lost in Maricopa County, which contains Phoenix and 62 percent of the state’s population. In 2020, Kelly won it by around 80,000 votes. The state’s other major population center is deep-blue Tucson, while Mohave, Pinal and Yavapai Counties are typically shades of red. Watch the outcome in State Senate District 4, a swing seat in Paradise Valley, a suburb of Phoenix — the results there could signal larger trends.Pennsylvania: The state’s recent bellwether has been northwestern Erie County, which Biden flipped after Clinton lost it to Donald Trump in 2016. But the suburbs around Philadelphia are where Democratic candidates typically try to run up huge margins over their Republican opponents. Pay attention to blue-collar Bucks County in particular — Oz has campaigned heavily there. Biden won it by 4.4 percentage points in 2020.Ohio: Keep an eye on the returns in Delaware County, a suburb of Columbus that has trended blue in recent years even as the state as a whole has turned deep red. If J.D. Vance wins big here, it’s over. And according to Stryker, the Democratic pollster, if Representative Tim Ryan isn’t within two or three percentage points of Vance in Delaware, “weaker Democratic candidates are probably getting their clocks cleaned in the suburbs.”What to readAs the nation prepares for another Election Day, suspicion and fear have become embedded in the mechanics of American democracy and voter intimidation has crept up to levels not seen for decades, Nick Corasaniti and Charles Homans write.In his newsletter The Tilt, Nate Cohn explores the battle for Congress and lays out four potential scenarios that could unfold tomorrow night.Kate Zernike examines how, while the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade outraged many women and galvanized them heading into the midterms, men remain passive by comparison.Attorney General Merrick Garland has tried to show that the Justice Department can operate above partisanship. But Donald Trump’s apparent plan to make an early announcement of a 2024 presidential bid is testing that approach, Katie Benner writes.Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at [email protected]. More